Top 25 talk

[sac]

cardinalpride--  I didn't really look in depth at the Week 5 poll so thats why there is no criticism from me or comments.  I have however made notes and comments throughout the year about teams that were ranked and others that weren't.

Such as Defiance being ranked with 3 losses, while Anderson not ranked......also had 3 losses 2 by 2pts to two of the best teams in D3, a win over Defiance and another win over a team that beat Defiance.  ~~~ rankings like this make no sense to me

I've pointed out lots of teams that the pollsters might think about tracking, such as Ohio Northern who was 8-1 at the time, but there were 3 loss teams in the poll. 


In the past I've been critical of the UAA having so many teams ranked, also been critical of how many Midwest/West teams are in the poll.........I like to believe that D3 is deeper than 20% of a polls teams being from one conference or worse 40% from one region, which has happened


I don't think its unfair to ask for explinations or reasoning behind how some people have voted.  I do think 7 teams from one conference is in the extreme and deserves some debate.

[Pat Coleman]

OB -- I noticed you didn't bother to refute the possibility that teams changed, merely name-called it.

Sorry you don't like it but yes, over the course of 10 games teams change. Ask Oxy -- they trailed La Sierra for much of the second half, never led by more than five (at 13-8) and won by three at home in their opener. Then they go on the road a month later and lead almost the entire game (last trailed at 17:36 of the first half) and lead by two possessions or more for almost the entire second half, putting it away at the end. Who's to say that two teams that played in November can't have a different result later in the season?

[cardinalpride]

Does the CCIW have 7 top 43 teams? Maybe, maybe not!  I don't know! Sac and OxyBob don't know either and for them to suggest otherwise without a whole lot of merit doesn't sit well with me!

In addition to SCIAC teams Oxy, Cal Lutheran, Caltech, Pomona, and Claremont, so far here are the D-III teams I have seen play this season: Carthage, Lawrence, Buena Vista, Luther, Pacific Lutheran, Ripon, Messiah, Amherst, UMass-Dartmouth, Chapman, UC Santa Cruz and NYU-Poly, not a bad cross-section, I'd say. I base my opinion on what I see. You don't like what I have to say because it doesn't jive with your preconceived notion that the CCIW is the be-all and end-all of D-III basketball.

Cal Lutheran-Carthage. Played Nov. 24, about 10 games ago for each. What have the teams done since? Recently, Cal Lu lost to Tufts and Carthage beat Augustana.

The old "We played you early in the season but now we'd beat you" excuse. You must be a Redlands football fan; that's also one of their favorites.

OxyBob

You know what OB, You win the CCIW probably doesn't deserve the recognition it gets.  For all I know, you could be the President-Elect too.  Afterall, he did attend Occidental for a couple of years!  The Bob in your name could really mean Barack Obama!  I wouldn't want to piss you off!  Goodnight my friend! 

[Ethelred the Unready]

This may be nitpicking, but I don't think the numbers support that particular statement.  I would argue UR would be one of the two, not Chicago. 

Chicago's won four UAA titles over the past decade, while Rochester's won two. Go back a dozen years, and Chicago's won six UAA titles to Rochester's two.

In this decade, UR is +17 over Chicago in conference wins, has an 11-3 lead in NCAA toournament wins and 2 appearances in the Final 4 to Chicago's 0.

[Pat Coleman]

The last two items are partly because of the region Rochester plays in. It's easier to make the Final Four from the East than from the Midwest.

However, that first item is pretty much apples to apples.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

b) The McHugh theory. As I've cited it before, it basically means that pollsters are loading the bottoms of their ballots with CCIW teams, because they're unsure of which ones are the good ones and they're just waiting for league play to sort it all out for them.

Greg, I think you mean the Gordan Mann theory...

http://d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2009/01/01/happy-new-season/

Damn - I was enjoying the fact I was getting credited with the theory - even though I knew I had read it some where else!

That being said, I think the "theory" is partially covered by what Pat said as well, most voters have two top CCIW teams in their ballots, but then debate about a third and everyone picks different teams. I bet Pat, Bob, and myself all have different #3's in the CCIW. The result: more than three are getting "votes."

As for the fact that Cal Lu isn't getting any respect, except for ONE win, I can't hang my hat on any other thing they have done this season. This isn't because I am dissing the team, but for the simple fact that on my recent ballots I have had at least 35 teams I am trying to squeeze into 25 slots. Obviously, that is 10 slots more than allowed, so I need to find reasons to eliminate or keep teams in my Top 25 - the reason I can't hang my hat on anything but one win back at the beginning of the season is keeping me from putting Cal Lu in my ballot.

Now, I can tell you that each season I get to a point with my ballot I pretty much "blow it up" and start over. The reason, I just need to start over with where I have teams positioned and why I have certain teams in certain places. Sometimes I think pollsters need to erase their previous polls from their heads and start over - it helps to reevaluate where teams should be.

By the way, I was on the verge of blowing my poll up this week, but didn't. But I see it happening in the next week or two.

Final note - major changes coming to Hoopsville. Announcement due in the next few days!

[Darryl Nester]

After I read through the last three pages of posts, I realized that I hadn't paid sufficient attention to suggestions for "other teams to watch."  I took OxyBob's comments as an implicit request to put Cal Lu back on the list, so if I am caught up, there are three teams on the list:

Hiram NCAC m
Milwaukee Engineering NATHC m
Cal Lutheran SCIAC m

Let me know if I missed anything.

[Gregory Sager]

This may be nitpicking, but I don't think the numbers support that particular statement.  I would argue UR would be one of the two, not Chicago. 

Chicago's won four UAA titles over the past decade, while Rochester's won two. Go back a dozen years, and Chicago's won six UAA titles to Rochester's two.

In this decade, UR is +17 over Chicago in conference wins, has an 11-3 lead in NCAA toournament wins and 2 appearances in the Final 4 to Chicago's 0.

True, but if you go back a dozen years then the advantage in conference wins is Chicago by a +5 margin. I should've used a dozen years as my original reference rather than a decade, since the dozen years encompasses the Derek Reich era.

As Pat said, the categories of D3 tourney wins and Final Four appearances are apples to oranges, given the drastically easier road to Salem that Rochester annually enjoys over either Wash U or Chicago.

[usee]

By the way, Carthage just beat the #7 team in the county!

I saw Carthage play. Cal Lutheran manhandled them and won easily. Carthage was wholly ordinary. If the Red Men beat the so-called "#7 team in the county!" then the CCIW is even more overrated than I already knew.

OxyBob

Not that I want to get involved in this discussion for any reason other than enteratinment value but out of curiosity I watched the link to the Carthage/Cal Lu game today and I would say "manhandled" and "won easily" is at best an exaggeration of the game from what I could see. Cal Lu got out to a 10 pt lead in the first 6 minutes, played even the rest of the half to lead by11 at the break, led by 17 with about 11 min left and then Carthage came back (due largely to CLU inability to handle the press--21 turnovers) and with 4.22  to play it was a 5 pt game when Carthage lost Fendley (ejected) and Tolo (fouled out). Without 2 of their starters they they made Cal LU earn it but got hammered on the boards down the stretch without Tolo. I was impressed with Cal Lu as a team but from what I could tell I don't see them as significantly better than Carthage. Steve D. scored 38 pts and Cal Lu had no answer for him. I would bet if these two teams played 10 times they would be pretty close to a 5-5 split.

If Carthage, IWU, and NCC are "getting votes" I don't see why Cal Lu wouldn't be in that group as well.

[John Gleich]

I don't know if the CCIW deserves 7 teams receiving votes!

I think something is lost in most of this discussion... it is simply the fact that 7 CCIW teams DON'T deserve to receive votes, probably, but the league is in a bit of an upheaval currently.

Wheaton was the top ranked team, preseason, based largely off of their NCAA run last year and the fact that they had so many guys back.  Other teams were ranked comparatively.  Augie has won 3 league titles in a row and has lots back.  Elmhurst returned lots from last year.  IWU is really young... but is largely intact from last year in a year that they beat Wheaton three times.

Carthage, Millikin, and North Central were not ranked preseason.  They have earned their current votes by their performance this season.

Compare that with what has happened to the preseason-ranked CCIW teams:

#1 Wheaton (began year: #3) 13-0, gained 126 points.  Combined opponents records are eight games below .500, but if you take away Staten Island and Chicago (combined 2-23) they'd be above .500, 13 games above (those may be a few games off... I'm trying to go off of this weekend's results that I had compiled and don't have the time to do it again).

#11 Augustana (began year: #2) 11-3, lost 257 points. 

#20 Elmhurst (began year # 17, got at high as #7 twice), 9-4 lost 31 points.

ORV IWU (began year #18, got as high as #13) 8-5, lost 175 points (currently 8 votes)

ORV Carthage (30 votes) 10-3

ORV Millikin (7 votes) 10-2

ORV North Central (5 votes) 10-3

As can be seen here, Augie, Elmhurst, and IWU have slid compared to where they were preseason and to the spot they attained early in the year.  They got to those places because there was so much turmoil in the top 25 early.

Carthage, Millikin, and North Central have risen to the ranks of the votees by their play.  All three teams have 10 wins, and they've won some early CCIW games (Carthage is 2-0 over Augie and Millikin, Millikin is 1-1, beat Elmhurst and lost to Carthage, North Central is 2-0 over North Park and IWU).  So we have a potential changing of the guards... 3 of the top 4 teams started off "on the radar" and they've slipped... 3 other teams started off "off the radar" and have gained prominence.  And for the first time, we've got some interaction between these two groups of 3.  The "off the radar" group has done better in head-to-head against the "on the radar" group... so it would make sense that they are getting some looks.  The "on the radar group" may well be on their way off the top 25... but they were all pretty highly ranked... they likely would slip before disappearing completely.

I think it certainly is important to note that these are just votes on ballots... not the compilation of the ballots.  A few posters may still have more faith in the "on the radar" group than the "off the radar" group.  Conversely, a few posters may have more faith in the "off the radar" group now than the teams they ranked higher early on.

It's really tough for the voters... especially because so many teams that were initially thought to be in the top 25 fell from grace early on.  That caused turmoil and caused some teams to rise and rise quickly... when they probably were more appropriate at their lower ranking in terms of placement on the top 25 (ex. Elmhurst... were they the #7 team in the country, or were they always just around #17... and they got to that ranking because others around them lost?)

There are some difficult things to factor in.  There's been lots of interaction between top teams and common opponents... so much so that it's difficult to really make heads or tails of it.  Elmhurst beat Wash U but lost to Point, who beat La Crosse, who beat Augustana (who also beat Elmhurst).  Point lost to Carroll and Lawrence who have beaten and lost to a bunch of other teams.  Throw in Platteville and Whitewater, who Point has beaten and who have beaten everybody else, except for St. Norberts and Mary Hardin Baylor, respectively...

And then you've got Wheaton and St. Thomas.  Wheaton hasn't really been tested yet... but they will be in conference.  But how good is the conference?  The confidence that some people had in them early seems now to be unfounded due to recent results.  And St. Thomas is relatively isolated... they've passed the tests they've had, but who have they really beaten?

I think the answer to all of these questions is... wait and see.  We'll find out lots over the next 3-4 weeks and the last few regular season polls will be more accurate than these.  And no matter how accurate they appear, upsets will still occur!  But that's why we love this game, isn't it?

[OxyBob]

By the way, Carthage just beat the #7 team in the county!

I saw Carthage play. Cal Lutheran manhandled them and won easily. Carthage was wholly ordinary. If the Red Men beat the so-called "#7 team in the county!" then the CCIW is even more overrated than I already knew.

I watched the link to the Carthage/Cal Lu game today and I would say "manhandled" and "won easily" is at best an exaggeration of the game from what I could see. Cal Lu got out to a 10 pt lead in the first 6 minutes, played even the rest of the half to lead by11 at the break, led by 17 with about 11 min left and then Carthage came back (due largely to CLU inability to handle the press--21 turnovers) and with 4.22  to play it was a 5 pt game when Carthage lost Fendley (ejected) and Tolo (fouled out). Without 2 of their starters they they made Cal LU earn it but got hammered on the boards down the stretch without Tolo. I was impressed with Cal Lu as a team but from what I could tell I don't see them as significantly better than Carthage. Steve D. scored 38 pts and Cal Lu had no answer for him.

Nothing like looking at a game through CCIW-colored glasses, I guess. Just so I'm clear, we are talking about the Carthage-Cal Lutheran game that was played on November 24, 2008, right? In that game, which I attended, Carthage led 7-5 after 2 minutes and never led again. CLU led by 13 at 10:00 of the first half and by 11 at the break. This is what you term "play[ing] even the rest of the half." In the second half, CLU had a 17 point lead at 11:00. Carthage made a run and got it down to 7. At 4:22 a double technical foul was called. Djurickovic made 2 FTs for Carthage, and Knudsen made 2 FTs for CLU, so CLU's lead remained at 7. This is what you term "a 5 pt game." A minute-forty and 4-0 later it was 11 and game over, never in doubt. Carthage's front line got hammered by Andy Meier & Co.: Adam Tolo was bageled and fouled out, Adam Stuart scored 6 and fouled out, and Richard Williams scored 4 and fouled out. Lucky for Eric Moore he only played 3 minutes and picked up 1 foul or he'd have been well on his way to fouling out, too. No "answer" for Djurickovic was necessary since there was no question as to the result. He is a mighty fine FT shooter, however.

OxyBob

[CNU85]

Not a Top 25 topic, but I figured some of you smart guys can help. I read the front page of d3hoops about top scorers....where can I find all time D3 stats? I can find recent stats and seasons, but not an all-time....say top 20 in scoring, rebounds, blocks......and if someone can point me in the right direction I'd be curious to see the same stats for women.

It is probably right in front of my face....but I am too tired from The Eagles concert last night.....what a band!! Joe Walsh has more energy than me....

I digress....can anyone post a link for me?

Thanks!!! 

[gordonmann]

CNU85:

They are very large files, but you'll find them here.

http://www.ncaa.org/wps/ncaa?ContentID=36413

[usee]

By the way, Carthage just beat the #7 team in the county!

I saw Carthage play. Cal Lutheran manhandled them and won easily. Carthage was wholly ordinary. If the Red Men beat the so-called "#7 team in the county!" then the CCIW is even more overrated than I already knew.

I watched the link to the Carthage/Cal Lu game today and I would say "manhandled" and "won easily" is at best an exaggeration of the game from what I could see. Cal Lu got out to a 10 pt lead in the first 6 minutes, played even the rest of the half to lead by11 at the break, led by 17 with about 11 min left and then Carthage came back (due largely to CLU inability to handle the press--21 turnovers) and with 4.22  to play it was a 5 pt game when Carthage lost Fendley (ejected) and Tolo (fouled out). Without 2 of their starters they they made Cal LU earn it but got hammered on the boards down the stretch without Tolo. I was impressed with Cal Lu as a team but from what I could tell I don't see them as significantly better than Carthage. Steve D. scored 38 pts and Cal Lu had no answer for him.

Nothing like looking at a game through CCIW-colored glasses, I guess. Just so I'm clear, we are talking about the Carthage-Cal Lutheran game that was played on November 24, 2008, right? In that game, which I attended, Carthage led 7-5 after 2 minutes and never led again. CLU led by 13 at 10:00 of the first half and by 11 at the break. This is what you term "play[ing] even the rest of the half." In the second half, CLU had a 17 point lead at 11:00. Carthage made a run and got it down to 7. At 4:22 a double technical foul was called. Djurickovic made 2 FTs for Carthage, and Knudsen made 2 FTs for CLU, so CLU's lead remained at 7. This is what you term "a 5 pt game." A minute-forty and 4-0 later it was 11 and game over, never in doubt. Carthage's front line got hammered by Andy Meier & Co.: Adam Tolo was bageled and fouled out, Adam Stuart scored 6 and fouled out, and Richard Williams scored 4 and fouled out. Lucky for Eric Moore he only played 3 minutes and picked up 1 foul or he'd have been well on his way to fouling out, too. No "answer" for Djurickovic was necessary since there was no question as to the result. He is a mighty fine FT shooter, however.

OxyBob

ToxicBob,

What's with the attitude? I can certainly tell you if you think I have CCIW colored glasses you haven't read many of my posts. I wouldn't have minded if Cal Lu beat Carthage by 100, let alone 6. I also wouldn't mind if Carthage didn't win another game as I am 21 turnovers and losing a 17 pt lead isn't exactly manhandling anybody. Carthage shot 38% and it wasn't because of the contested looks from what I could see. Cal Lu shot 52% in their own gym and won a game by 6. According to CLU's own broadcast team the game was certainly in doubt down the stretch and they both said multiple times that CLU couldn't guard Steve D.

You can keep your battered poster syndrome all you want. All I did was give a viewpoint that I thought Cal Lu and Carthage are pretty even at worst. You want to slant that as CCIW Bias when in fact I am promoting Cal LU. IF the voters think Carthage is top 40 then CLU certainly should be....I think that's what I said. CLU was certainly the better team that night but if they were so dominant they wouldn't have turned it over so much and let Carthage back in the game at the end. But if you don't think a 5 or 7 pt game with 4min left is still in doubt then you keep going to embellishment school and I'm sure everyone will believe CLU "waxed" the Redmen like you keep promoting.

[magicman]

Ithaca, victimized by "the buzzer beater that wasn't" on Sunday to ruin their perfect record, comes storming back at home to rip Potsdam St. 116-94. Bombers move to 13-1.