Pool C

[pabegg]

Patrick, what do you think of this...

11 of 18 bids accounted for (Friday am)
(in no particular order)
1. UW-Whitewater
2. UW Stevens Point or UW-Platteville (WIAC)
3. Buena Vista
4. St. Mary's (Md.)
5. Capital or John Carroll (OAC)
6. Randolph-Macon or Guilford (ODAC)
7. Trinity (Tx) or Centre (SCAC)
8. Salem St or Bridgewater St (MASCAC)
9. Middlebury or Amherst (NESCAC)
10. Farmingdale St. or St. Joseph's (Sky)
11. Mass-Dartmouth or Rhode Island (LEC)


"Upset Proof" Teams
Ithaca (E8)
St. Thomas (MIAC)
Puget Sound (NWC)
Worcester Poly (NEWMAC)
Wheaton (CCIW)
Hamilton (Liberty)
Richard Stockton (NJAC)
Transylvania (HCAC)
Franklin & Marshall (CC)
Calvin (MIAA)
Texas-Dallas (ASC)
Wooster (NCAC)

St. Joseph's seems to me to be a stretch.
Amherst is behind Brandeis in the regional rankings, so they'd have to sweat a Pool C.

I'm more optimistic for the Mid-Atlantic teams (DeSales, Widener) than the Great Lakes teams (Calvin, Wooster).

St. Lawrence is ranked ahead of Hamilton, so I think their chances are at least as good.

[fantastic50]

Given that the #5, #6, and #7 seeds advanced to the semifinals in the NCAC, I don't like Wooster's chances in Pool C if the Scots are upset at home by Kenyon tonight or Wabash/Allegheny tomorrow night.

[kiltedbryan]

Given that the #5, #6, and #7 seeds advanced to the semifinals in the NCAC, I don't like Wooster's chances in Pool C if the Scots are upset at home by Kenyon tonight or Wabash/Allegheny tomorrow night.

Certainly Wooster's best bet is to get the A bid, but since conference tourney seed of the team you lost to isn't a criterion for the committee, it won't necessarily matter that much.  Tonight, at least, by playing Kenyon, Wooster is actually playing a team with a better winning percentage than Wittenberg (the NCAC #4) would've have had, and that is a criteria for the NCAA.

From my very unscientific viewpoint, a win tonight should make Wooster pretty safe, regardless of what happens tomorrow.  A loss tonight is different...probably puts Wooster on the bubble.

[Hugenerd]

Given that the #5, #6, and #7 seeds advanced to the semifinals in the NCAC, I don't like Wooster's chances in Pool C if the Scots are upset at home by Kenyon tonight or Wabash/Allegheny tomorrow night.

Certainly Wooster's best bet is to get the A bid, but since conference tourney seed of the team you lost to isn't a criterion for the committee, it won't necessarily matter that much.  Tonight, at least, by playing Kenyon, Wooster is actually playing a team with a better winning percentage than Wittenberg (the NCAC #4) would've have had, and that is a criteria for the NCAA.

From my very unscientific viewpoint, a win tonight should make Wooster pretty safe, regardless of what happens tomorrow.  A loss tonight is different...probably puts Wooster on the bubble.

I disagree,  if Wooster wins tonight and needs a Pool C, that means that they would lose another game to a relatively bad team (either 13-12 Wabash or 12-14 Allegheny).  There is a miniscule chance of them getting a Pool C if that happens for the following reasons: 1)  JCU or Capital will definitely be ahead of them in the GL for Pool C consideration; 2) CMU will definitely be ahead of them for Pool C consideration in the GL, even if they lose to Rochester (see this week's regional rankings, a CMU loss to Rochester, a regionally ranked team,  is not as bad as Wooster losing to a ~0.500 team);  3) Do you really think the GL are going to get 3 or 4 Pool Cs (If Calvin doesnt win their tourney they may even be ranked ahead of Wooster) ?  There were already 2 upsets last night that are likely going to take up two of the bids (St. Marys and Buena Vista), which only leaves 16.  If you factor in that there will likely be a couple more upsets and the fact that the west, midwest and northeast are all very strong at the top, Wooster better win their tournament if they want a good chance. 

[walzy31]

Update when results come in.

I left out the regular season records so it fits.

RED means they have lost, regular season/conference tourney is complete and they are Pool C eligible.

BLUE means they have won the Pool A bid and have been removed from the regional rankings.

Atlantic	REG	CONF.	RESULTS
Richard Stockton	20-2	NJAC	BEAT William Paterson; plays Rutgers-Newark in NJAC Final on Sat.
Farmingdale State	23-2	SKY	BEAT SUNY-Old Westbury; plays St. Joseph's (L.I.) in SKY Finals on Sat.
Monclair State	16-5	NJAC	LOST to Rutgers-Newark in NJAC semis
William Paterson	20-6	NJAC	LOST to Richard Stockton in NJAC semis
Baruch	20-3	CUNYAC	BEAT Lehman; plays Brooklyn in CUNYAC Final on Sat.

Don't forget that when teams win or get knocked out of their conference tourneys, that their in-region record changes. Montclair St and William Patterson each picked up another in-region loss and should be 16-6 and 20-7, respectively.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Guilford has just fallen in double OT.  Is that another C gone, or will the Quakers be "sweatin' on the bubble"?

[Greek Tragedy]

Walzy31....

Yeah, I know.  The records are through Sunday, which the NCAA uses to put out this week's rankings (last public ones). 

[Pat Coleman]

Blog post on a topic that might be of interest here:

http://d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2009/02/27/ncaa-must-release-its-data/

[Ralph Turner]

VWC has jumped to 9-2 lead over Randy Mac 13:12.

VWC 32, RMC 22; Halftime.

[Mr. Ypsi]

DePauw was upset today by a team they recently beat by 27.  Would it be safe to say that (losing this early) they have gone from 'in contention' to 'roadkill'?

[larry_u]

Any remote chance Carroll had is now gone as # 25 Lawrence beats Carroll 90-66 in the first Midwest Conference semi-final.

LU still has a chance if they would slip up to Grinnell or St. Norbert tomorrow.

[Ralph Turner]

VWC has jumped to 9-2 lead over Randy Mac 13:12.

VWC 32, RMC 22; Halftime.

VWC beats RMC (76-63 Final)

[Mr. Ypsi]

VWC has jumped to 9-2 lead over Randy Mac 13:12.

VWC 32, RMC 22; Halftime.

VWC beats RMC (76-63 Final)

Very interesting!  With Guilford and Randy Mac both losing in the quarter-finals, is the ODAC suddenly a three-team league, or does one (or both) of them sit home?

[Pat Coleman]

Seems unlikely, unless it's Roanoke which wins it all now.

[Pat Coleman]

We'll get a chance to really find out where Hamilton stands. They lost to RPI 64-55 in the LL semis.