Pool C

[KnightSlappy]

Regarding UW-Stout, recently I posted the following about Pool C from last year:

Last year, after the bracket was announced, I tried to project the order the Pool C's were taken.  Post #3866 here...

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.3855

There were 19 Pool C's picked (same as this year).  I guessed that the last 7 in were...

(in-region winning %/in-region SOS/in-region results vs regionally ranked)

Round 13 - St. Mary's, .739/.557/1-3
Round 14 - Illinois Wesleyan, .708/.541/3-6
Round 15 - Randolph-Macon, .783/.515, 3-2
Round 16 - Gustavus Adolphus, .731/.526/2-2
Round 17 - New York U., .800, .494, 2-2
Round 18 - St. Joseph's, .875, .470, 0-2
Round 19 - Birmingham-Southern, .920/.443/0-0

I projected that the teams left sitting at the table when the music stopped were:

(Atl) St. Joseph's (LI): 21-3 (.875), .470, 0-2
(E) Nazareth, 18-7 (.720), .549, 0-4
(GL) John Carroll: 15-7 (.682), .491, 1-1
(MA) Keystone: 21-6 (.778), .504, 0-3
(MW) Lake Forest: 19-4 (.826), .516, 0-1
(NE) Wesleyan: 20-5 (.800), .515, 3-3 - I think we later guessed that some other NE team was ranked higher in the region
(W) Puget Sound: 15-7 (.682), .513, 3-3

And in regards to Wheaton, said:

I'd consider Wheaton virtually a Pool C lock at .739/.573/4-4 vs regionally ranked.

UW-Stout's numbers -- 17-6 (.739)/.534/1-4

Stout is a very competitive Pool C candidate, but I'm not sure I'd describe the chances as "pretty good", and I don't think I'd say rounds 10-12.  Rounds 10-12 are where I see Wheaton right now, and Wheaton is in better Pool C shape than Stout.  I see Stout more in the 16-18 range...something like that.  They could really use more than just that 1 win vs regionally ranked to feel better about things.  Of course, Stout's total number of games played vs regionally ranked (5 now) is going to help vs other bubble teams.

I should also note, when I refer to spots "10-12" or "16-18", I'm budgeting for the regular amount of conference tournament upsets, where presumed Pool A teams steal Pool Cs.  This might account for the difference in how Greek Tragedy are I are looking at UW-Stout right now (he said, "obviously with no upsets").

Just my take.

I think Stout is in the 15+ range right now before considering upsets. I just counted 14 non-conference-leading teams who had a better WP and also had an SOS within .010 of Stout's (or higher than Stout's).

[Titan Q]

A rough look at how I see Pool C heading into Saturday's games, using in-region records and results vs regionally ranked through Friday 2/15.  (SOS is from the regional ranking week two data sheets, through 2/10.)

Through games of Friday, 2/15...

Pool C projection
1. UW-Whitewater (West, WIAC) - 19-4 (.826)/.583/6-2
2. Williams (Northeast, NESCAC) - 19-3 (.864)/.562/3-3
3. Wheaton (Midwest, CCIW) - 15-5 (.750)/.573/4-3
4. North Central (Midwest, CCIW) - 18-3 (.857)/.531/3-2
5. MIT (Northeast, NEWMAC) - 18-4 (.818)/.552/3-3
6. Washington U. (Midwest, UAA) - 17-5 (.773)/.559/5-3
7. Emory (South, UAA) - 16-6 (.727)/.568/4-4
8. Virginia Wesleyan (South, ODAC) - 15-5 (.750)/.534/5-2
9. Albright (Mid-Atlantic, MACC) - 19-5 (.792)/.554/3-1
10. Middlebury (Northeast, NESCAC) - 18-2 (.900)/.521/0-2
11. Brandeis (Northeast, UAA) - 17-6 (.739)/.571/3-5
12. Wesley (Mid-Atlantic, CAC) - 16-2 (.889)/.505/3-1
13. Transylvania (Midwest, HCAC) - 17-5 (.773)/.543/3-1
14. Ohio Wesleyan (Great Lakes, NCAC) - 18-4 (.818)/.549/1-2
15. Springfield (Northeast, NEWMAC) - 17-7 (.708)/.567/3-5
16. Rutgers-Newark (Atlantic, NJAC) - 18-6 (.750)/.543/2-3
17. Scranton (Mid-Atlantic, LAND) - 18-6 (.750)/.535/2-1
18. Plattsburgh State (East, SUNYAC) - 17-6 (.739)/.539/2-4
19. Richard Stockton (Atlantic, NJAC) - 18-6 (.750)/.524/1-4
----------
20. UW-Stout (West, WIAC) - 17-6 (.739)/.534/1-4
21. Thomas More (Great Lakes, PrAC) - 20-2 (.909)/.478/1-2
22. Whitman (West, NWC) - 14-6 (.700)/.568/2-2
23. Augustana (Midwest, CCIW) - 15-7 (.682)/.557/1-7
24. Concordia-Tx (South, ASC) - 17-4 (.810)/.523/1-2
25. Eastern Connecticut (Northeast, LEC) - 17-4 (.810)/.511/1-1
26. St. Norbert (Midwest, MWC) - 17-5 (.773)/.540/1-2
27. SUNY-Purchase (Atlantic, Sky) - 19-5 (.792)/.522/1-2
28. Augsburg (West, MIAC) - 18-6 (.750)/.525/1-3
29. Concordia-Moorhead (West, MIAC) - 17-6 (.739)/.508/2-2
30. Ithaca (East, E8) - 15-8 (.652)/.541/2-3
31.Randolph (South, ODAC) - 14-4 (.778)/.485/1-3
32. Texas-Dallas (South, ASC) - 18-6 (.750)/.517/0-3



Top "Bubble Bursters" (presumed Pool As who would most likely rank in Pool C top 19)
1. Rochester (East, UAA) - 20-2 (.909)/.584/7-2
2. Amherst (Northeast, NESCAC) - 22-2 (.917)/.568/6-1
3. St. Thomas (West, MIAC) - 24-1 (.960)/.543/5-1
4. UW-Stevens Point (West, WIAC) - 20-4 (.833)/.583/6-2
5. WPI (Northeast, NEWMAC) - 22-2 (.917)/.553/4-2
6. Illinois Wesleyan (Midwest, CCIW) - 17-3 (.850)/.548/5-2
7. Wooster (Great Lakes, NCAC) -20-3 (.870)/.562/3-1
8. Rhode Island (Northeast, LEC) - 21-3 (.875)/.539/3-3
9. Alvernia (Mid-Atlantic, MACC) - 20-4 (.833)/.552/4-2
10. Catholic (Mid-Atlantic, LAND) - 18-3 (.857)/.536/2-1
11. SUNY-Old Westbury (Atlantic, Sky) - 21-1 (.954)/.493/2-1
12. Whitworth (West, NWC) - 20-3 (.870)/.549/1-1
13. Stevens (East, E8) - 19-3 (.864)/.538/2-1
14. Hampden-Sydney (South, ODAC) - 17-3 (.850)/.523/3-2
15. St. Mary's (Mid-Atlantic, CAC) - 16-3 (.842)/.516/3-2
16. Mary Hardin-Baylor (South, ASC) - 20-4 (.833)/.540/2-1
17. Rose-Hulman (Midwest, HCAC) - 20-3 (.870)/.511/1-1
18. Buena Vista (West, IIAC) - 17-6 (.739)/.558/1-2


Let me know if you find errors in data, and if any thoughts.  Again, it's pretty rough...but a start.

[Hugenerd]

Not an error, but WPI just beat Clark, putting them in a tie for #1 in the NEWMAC with MIT.  Both teams are tied for every conference tiebreaker, but WPI holds the final, non-conference criteria, tiebreaker and will host next weekend.

Based on your rankings, both teams look like they are in pretty good shape for a Pool C bid, so bubble teams should probably be rooting for no team outside of those to win the NEWMAC tourney (Springfield, Clark, or Babson).  MIT would probably fall somewhere above Brandeis in your Pool C projection (based on regional rankings).

[Titan Q]

Not an error, but WPI just beat Clark, putting them in a tie for #1 in the NEWMAC with MIT.  Both teams are tied for every conference tiebreaker, but WPI holds the final, non-conference criteria, tiebreaker and will host next weekend.

Based on your rankings, both teams look like they are in pretty good shape for a Pool C bid, so bubble teams should probably be rooting for no team outside of those to win the NEWMAC tourney (Springfield, Clark, or Babson).  MIT would probably fall somewhere above Brandeis in your Pool C projection (based on regional rankings).

Just saw your NEWMAC post and adjusted...thanks.

[Hugenerd]

What are your thoughts on putting Springfield so high?  I agree that they are a very good team, and have 3 big wins this year (Amherst, WPI, and MIT), but based on the NE regional rankings, its seems at least Middlebury should be ahead of them (I agree that Midd has beat pretty much no one except for Tufts, although they have played both Williams and Amherst close, which are their only games against regionally ranked opponents so far).  7 seems like a lot of losses though (5 to regionally ranked teams though).

[Titan Q]

What are your thoughts on putting Springfield so high?  I agree that they are a very good team, and have 3 big wins this year (Amherst, WPI, and MIT), but based on the NE regional rankings, its seems at least Middlebury should be ahead of them (I agree that Midd has beat pretty much no one except for Tufts, although they have played both Williams and Amherst close, which are their only games against regionally ranked opponents so far).  7 seems like a lot of losses though (5 to regionally ranked teams though).

Good catch...I just moved Middlebury ahead of Springfield.

[Titan Q]

Augsburg 27, Concorida Moorhead 28, and St. thomas are not MIAA teams.
Now that you mention it where are the real MIAA teams?

Thanks, corrected the MIAA/MIAC error.

Calvin is a confusing situation for me.  Coming into today -- 17-1 (.944)/.432/0-0.  They are ranked behind Thomas More in the Great Lakes...and I don't have Thomas More in my Pool C top 19...so it wouldn't make sense to put Calvin on my "bubble burster" list.

As we speak, St. Vincent leads Thomas More by 13 with 11:00 to play - http://www.pacstream.net

[realist]

Q:  No problem.  I was just surprised to learn that some teams had switched from the MIAC to the MIAA.  My point really was why doesn't one team from the MIAA merit at least an honorable mention.

I know we are both (MI, and MN) in flyover country, but you are not in NYC.

That 17-1 "in region" list is so long it doesn't surprise me Calvin got lost.

[Titan Q]

Q:  No problem.  I was just surprised to learn that some teams had switched from the MIAC to the MIAA.  My point really was why doesn't one team from the MIAA merit at least an honorable mention.

I know we are both (MI, and MN) in flyover country, but you are not in NYC.

Talk about flyover country -- I'm posting all of this from Nebraska!

[KnightSlappy]

Q:  No problem.  I was just surprised to learn that some teams had switched from the MIAC to the MIAA.  My point really was why doesn't one team from the MIAA merit at least an honorable mention.

I know we are both (MI, and MN) in flyover country, but you are not in NYC.

He's in even flyover-er country!

Calvin has clinched themselves a .900+ in-region WP, it's up to the committee if they'll keep out that type of percentage. If they don't award a Pool C (should it come to that) it would be like saying they never had a chance to earn one with their schedule.

[smedindy]

Wooster just lost to DePauw, so some of the calculus in the GL region could shift.

[Bucket]

I'm a homer here, but Middlebury below MIT and Brandeis doesn't correspond with regional rankings. Having easily dispatched Wesleyan in the NESCAC quarters, Midd advances to play Williams in the semis. A loss to the Ephs (or Amherst in the finals) would not drop Midd below either MIT or Brandeis in the regional rankings. So, I guess you can project how "you see it," but this doesn't match with how the members of the committee—you know, the guys who pick the field—see it.

[KnightSlappy]

Wooster just lost to DePauw, so some of the calculus in the GL region could shift.

I think they're on top of the region for good.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Wooster just lost to DePauw, so some of the calculus in the GL region could shift.

I think they're on top of the region for good.

Were they predestined?!

[Hugenerd]

I'm a homer here, but Middlebury below MIT and Brandeis doesn't correspond with regional rankings. Having easily dispatched Wesleyan in the NESCAC quarters, Midd advances to play Williams in the semis. A loss to the Ephs (or Amherst in the finals) would not drop Midd below either MIT or Brandeis in the regional rankings. So, I guess you can project how "you see it," but this doesn't match with how the members of the committee—you know, the guys who pick the field—see it.

I think RIC and MIT could both jump Midd in next weeks rankings (I dont think MIT will be able to jump RIC with the head-to-head result).  Midd has a mediocre SOS (0.521) and have lost to the only regionally ranked teams they have played (I know they were close games, but MOV is not a criteria).  RIC and MIT do have an additional 1 and 2 losses, respectively, but they also have 3 wins against ranked opponents, including MITs win over #1 WPI last week.