Pool C

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Oh, I take that back.  I don't have Oswego in because I don't think that there will be a reorder and they'll get stuck behind St. John Fisher.  I do have Whitman (or Whitworth, whichever one didn't win their tournament) in.

Oswego beating #1 in the East Plattsburgh State for a 2nd time in Plattsburgh should do something to mix up the rankings. Oswego also owns a win over Rochester in Rochester. I think the Lakers get a bid. They are a very good team with great guards, a host of 3 point shooters and size.

You're right.  Guys - doesn't Oswego have a better resume than Rochester now?  They should be #2 in the region.  Maybe they're hosting?

[pg04]

Lynchburg relieves the bubble a bit. Wins in OT.

[magicman]

Lynchburg relieves the bubble a bit. Wins in OT.

Was happy to see that. Randolph had multiple chance to go ahead in the final 2 minutes and after Lynchburg only made 1 of 2 from the line to go up by 2 with 9 seconds left, Randolph had 2 wide open looks at a three pointer to win the game. Lynchburg got lucky and somebody on the bubble did as well.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

It's all in the books now.  Just waiting for Matt to update the numbers then we can argue over regional rankings and who gets in.

[Greek Tragedy]

It's all in the books now.  Just waiting for Matt to update the numbers then we can argue over regional rankings and who gets in.

Haven't we/you guys been doing that all week? 

[Ralph Turner]

The NCAA would never admit it, but do you think they would actually leave someone home based partially on geographics? (We'd save a flight if we picked " team A" instead of "team B"...

+1!  (From an island fan.)

[Greek Tragedy]

I wonder how Augie fans feel. They're located on an island too.     

[Ralph Turner]

My guess is that Hardin-Simmons plays at Texas Lutheran on Thursday and the winner flies to Augustana, who gets a first round bye.

This makes sense to me because it is a "#8/#9" winner going to #1 which got a bye.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

My guess is that Hardin-Simmons plays at Texas Lutheran on Thursday and the winner flies to Augustana, who gets a first round bye.

This makes sense to me because it is a "#8/#9" winner going to #1 which got a bye.

I think Benedictine is more likely to get the bye than Augustana - it would've been St. Thomas, but they lost today.  I'm still betting on Texas Lutheran hosting Hardin-Simmons, Whitworth, and Chapman, but we'll see.

[KnightSlappy]

Final numbers are live:

http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

[Titan Q]

Final projection...

Pool C Projection
1. St. Thomas (MIAC) .889/.564 (not updated)/11-1, W#1
2. Marietta (OAC) 0.893/0.556/5-3, GL#1
3. Susquehanna (LAND) 0.840/0.554/4-3, MA#2
4. Amherst (NESCAC) .815/.564/5-2, NE#1
5. Plattsburgh State (SUNYAC) 0.808/0.552/4-3, EA#1
6. Salisbury (CAC) 0.778/0.562/4-3, MA#3
7. Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC) 0.852/0.525/3-2, GL#2
8. North Central (CCIW) 0.720/0.600/3-7, CE#4
9. Tufts (NESCAC) 0.769/0.561/3-5, NE#3
10. Elmhurst (CCIW) 0.778/0.543/3-5, CE#5
11. Wooster (NCAC) 0.741/0.563/3-4, GL#6
12. Oswego State (SUNYAC) 0.714/0.552/6-2, EA#5
13. Trinity (NESCAC) 0.720/0.563/2-5, NE#2
14. Scranton (LAND) 0.720/0.556/2-4, MA#5
15. Rochester (UAA) 0.708/0.561/3-4, EA#2
16. WPI (NEWMAC) 0.769/0.521/5-3, NE#5
17. Hope (MIAA) 0.913/0.504/1-1, GL#4   
18. New York University (UAA) 0.800/0.509/3-3, EA#3
19. LaGrange (USAC) 0.708/0.551/3-2, SO#6

Left at Table
*Atlantic - New Jersey City (NJAC) 0.692/0.525/4-2, AT#1   
*Central - Carroll (MWC) 0.800/0.530/0-3, CE#8
*East - St. John Fisher (E8) .778/.519/1-0, E#4 
*Great Lakes - Mount Union (OAC)  .654/.546/2-5, GL #7
*Mid-Atlantic - Swarthmore (CC)  .741/.498/0-3, not ranked
*Northeast - Eastern Connecticut (LEC) .667/.550/1-4, NE#7
*South - n/a
*West - Whitman (NWC) 0.840/0.509/1-2, W#3  Pool C #20

[Titan Q]

Final numbers are live:

http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

As always, thank you very much for doing this!

[magicman]

I'll really be surprised if the East Region gets 4 Pool C bids. Last year we got 0. I believe 3 is the most the East Region ends up with.  I think Rochester or NYU  is out.   

[David Collinge]

Final projection...

Pool C Projection
1. St. Thomas (MIAC) .889/.564 (not updated)/11-1, W#1
2. Marietta (OAC) 0.893/0.556/5-3, GL#1
3. Susquehanna (LAND) 0.840/0.554/4-3, MA#2
4. Amherst (NESCAC) .815/.564/5-2, NE#1
5. Plattsburgh State (SUNYAC) 0.808/0.552/4-3, EA#1
6. Salisbury (CAC) 0.778/0.562/4-3, MA#3
7. Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC) 0.852/0.525/3-2, GL#2
8. North Central (CCIW) 0.720/0.600/3-7, CE#4
9. Tufts (NESCAC) 0.769/0.561/3-5, NE#3
10. Elmhurst (CCIW) 0.778/0.543/3-5, CE#5
11. Hope (MIAA) 0.913/0.504/1-1, GL#4   
12. Wooster (NCAC) 0.741/0.563/3-4, GL#6
13. Oswego State (SUNYAC) 0.714/0.552/6-2, EA#5
14. Trinity (NESCAC) 0.720/0.563/2-5, NE#2
15. Scranton (LAND) 0.720/0.556/2-4, MA#5
16. Rochester (UAA) 0.708/0.561/3-4, EA#2
17. WPI (NEWMAC) 0.769/0.521/5-3, NE#5
18. New York University (UAA) 0.800/0.509/3-3, EA#3
19. LaGrange (USAC) 0.708/0.551/3-2, SO#6

Left at Table
*Atlantic - New Jersey City (NJAC) 0.692/0.525/4-2, AT#1   
*Central - Carroll (MWC) 0.800/0.530/0-3, CE#8
*East - St. John Fisher (E8) .778/.519/1-0, E#4 
*Great Lakes - Mount Union (OAC)  .654/.546/2-5, GL #7
*Mid-Atlantic - Swarthmore (CC)  .741/.498/0-3, not ranked
*Northeast - Eastern Connecticut (LEC) .667/.550/1-4, NE#7
*South - n/a
*West - Whitman (NWC) 0.840/0.509/1-2, W#3  Pool C #20

NESCAC -- 4 bids (including Pool A, as with all that follow)
LAND -- 3 bids
SUNYAC -- 3 bids
NCAC -- 3 bids
CCIW -- 3 bids
UAA -- 3 bids
2 bids each for MIAC, OAC, CAC, MIAA, NEWMAC, USAC

[bopol]

For better or worse, here is my bracket...

Bracket of 16:
St Thomas
Northwestern
UW-Oshkosh
North Central

St. Norbert
Central
St. Olaf
Alma

Augustana
bye
Texas Lutheran
Hardin-Simmons

Emory
Covenent
LaGrange
Birmingham Southern

Bracket of 16:

Benedictine
Westimister
Ohio Wesleyan
Hope

John Carroll
Pitt-Greenburg
Mt St. Joseph
Elmhurst

Marietta
Lycoming
Gwynedd Mercy
Wooster

Whitworth
bye
Chapman
Whitman

Bracket of 16:

Newport
Delaware Valley
Franklin and Marshall
Scranton

Catholic
Denison
Middlebury
Rochester

Lynchberg
St Vincent
NYU
Brooklyn

Susquenhanna
SUNY-Old Westbury
WPI
Trinity

Bracket of 16:

Amherst
Endicott
Lancaster Bible
Southern Vermont

Babson
Keene St.
Tufts
Skidmore

Plattsburgh St
Husson
Johnson and Wales
Hartwick

Stockton
Fitchsburg St
Salisbury
Cortland

Thoughts:

* After looking, I decided that Oswego isn't in all that great of shape, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them on the table and may be one of the last picks.  I think Oswego will get hurt when Geneseo drops from the regional rankings and their RRO goes to 3-1, which is still really good.  I wouldn't be surprised to be wrong.  In the end, Whitman gets in, because I think there are legit reasons they play the schedule they do.  I really still don't like the last few picks (WPI & Lagrange). 
* Because of the St. Thomas loss, Augustana became the de facto #1.  It could have been Benedictine, but I needed their location to make things work.
* I think Emory will move up to South #1, which didn't make me feel as bad about leaving Texas Lutheran without a pod (they'll get a home game though).  Lynchberg also gets a pod.
* Too many pods in the Mid-Atlantic?  Well, I was kind of stuck on whether the committee would make Rochester take a pod when they'll be one of the last teams off the table or for that matter, I don't know what you do in the Atlantic.  I do think that Central will get three pods (for geographical reasons) and Mid-Atlantic (for better team reasons).  We'll see tomorrow.
* The Ohio Wesleyan-Hope game is a ridiculous 1st round matchup, but I couldn't figure out a way to fix it.
* For the second weekend, there are lots of good options, so I know women get priority.

Thanks for everyone's constructive input and good discussion.  Thanks for http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/ for all the great data.