Pool C

Titan Q · February 22, 2017, 07:45:28 PM

Matt's RPI formula has IWU as Pool C #18 right now. This seems about right to me in that #18 is at the far end of the bubble and most likely out due to expected upsets. But yet, not 100% out of the conversation.

fantastic50 · February 22, 2017, 07:56:10 PM

OK, let's try this again (through Tuesday's games)...

Officially clinched berth (1)
A) Washington U. (20-4, 0.577, 7-2 vRRO, CE#2) won UAA AQ

Locks or near-locks (14)
A) Chris Newport (23-2, 0.526, 3-2 vRRO, MA#1) lock, 81% CAC AQ
A) Babson (24-1, 0.577, 4-1 vRRO, NE#1) lock, 80% NEWMAC AQ
A) Marietta (22-4, 0.576, 4-4 vRRO, GL#1) lock, 77% OAC AQ
A) Whitman (25-0, 0.537, 4-0 vRRO, WE#1) lock, 76% NWC AQ
A) Ramapo (24-2, 0.497, 6-2 vRRO, AT#2) lock, 72% NJAC AQ
A) Neumann (23-2, 0.504, 6-0 vRRO, AT#1) lock, 56% CSAC AQ
A) UW-River Falls (20-3, 0.593, 7-3 vRRO, CE#1) lock, 52% WIAC AQ
A) Middlebury (22-3, 0.609, 6-3 vRRO, NE#2) lock, 44% NESCAC AQ
C#1) Tufts (20-5, 0.567, 4-3 vRRO, NE#3) lock, 30% NESCAC AQ
C#2) Rochester (21-3, 0.531, 4-1 vRRO, EA#1) near-lock, no AQ
C#3) UW-Whitewater (19-5, 0.566, 3-4 vRRO, CE#3) near-lock, 20% WIAC AQ
C#4) Susquehanna (20-4, 0.551, 4-3 vRRO, MA#2) near-lock, 29% LAND AQ
C#5) Wesleyan (CT) (19-6, 0.559, 4-3 vRRO, NE#4) near-lock, no AQ
A) Hanover (19-3, 0.520, 2-2 vRRO, GL#2) near-lock, 57% HCAC AQ

Strong position (12) (80%+ for Pool C, if no AQ)
A) Lycoming (20-4, 0.528, 1-1 vRRO, MA#3) 99% (56% MACC or 98% C), 98% if CF, 91% if lose out
C#6) New Jersey City (21-6, 0.517, 5-3 vRRO, AT#3) 98% (28% NJAC or 97% C)
C#7) Whitworth (22-3, 0.525, 0-2 vRRO, WE#2) 97% (22% NWC or 96% C), 96% if CF, 89% if lose out
A) Hardin-Simmons (19-6, 0.555, 3-1 vRRO, SO#1) 97% (34% ASC or 96% C), 100% if CF, 87% if lose out
C#8) Amherst (17-7, 0.601, 5-5 vRRO, NE#5) 94% C
C#9) St Lawrence (19-5, 0.519, 3-4 vRRO, EA#4) 95% (28% LL or 93% C), 96% if CF, 84% if lose out
A) Hope (19-4, 0.520, 2-1 vRRO, GL#3) 97% (60% MIAA or 93% C), 95% if CF, 83% if lose out
A) Skidmore (19-6, 0.522, 6-1 vRRO, EA#3) 97% (56% LL or 92% C), 96% if CF, 87% if lose out
C#10) Cabrini (19-5, 0.523, 2-3 vRRO, AT#4) 89% (25% CSAC or 86% C), 87% if CF, 74% if lose out
A) Scranton (19-6, 0.529, 6-3 vRRO, MA#5) 90% (39% LAND or 83% C), 94% if CF, 75% if lose out
C#11) Salisbury (19-6, 0.528, 3-3 vRRO, MA#6) 83% (12% CAC or 80% C), 87% if CF, 59% if lose out

Bubble teams if no AQ (17) (20-79% for Pool C if no AQ)
A) Oswego State (18-6, 0.522, 3-2 vRRO, EA#5) 85% (40% SUNYAC or 75% C), 90% if CF, 69% if lose out
C#12) Mt St Joseph (18-5, 0.508, 2-1 vRRO, GL#4) 80% (22% HCAC or 74% C), 87% if CF, 60% if lose out
A) Guilford (20-5, 0.503, 3-2 vRRO, SO#3) 82% (34% ODAC or 73% C), 82% if CF, 50% if lose out
A) St Thomas (MN) (19-6, 0.523, 1-2 vRRO, WE#3) 81% (37% MIAC or 70% C), 74% if CF, 61% if lose out
C#13) Williams (18-7, 0.586, 6-4 vRRO, NE#6) 72% (15% NESCAC or 66% C), 97% if CF, 53% if lose out
A) Benedictine (IL) (21-3, 0.489, 1-0 vRRO, CE#7) 88% (66% NACC or 65% C), 64% if CF, 60% if lose out
A) Swarthmore (20-5, 0.521, 1-1 vRRO, MA#4) 80% (47% CC or 62% C), 65% if CF, 49% if lose out
C#14) MIT (19-6, 0.546, 0-4 vRRO, NE#7) 65% (14% NEWMAC or 60% C), 73% if CF, 32% if lose out
C#15) Concordia (TX) (17-6, 0.543, 1-3 vRRO, SO#4) 67% (24% ASC or 57% C), 84% if CF, 7% if lose out
C#16) UW-Eau Claire (17-7, 0.571, 3-4 vRRO, CE#4) 60% (8% WIAC or 56% C), 97% if CF, 7% if lose out
A) St John Fisher (20-5, 0.545, 0-3 vRRO, EA#2) 87% (73% E8 or 52% C)
projected cut line (after some Pool C berths disappear when strong teams don't win Pool A berths)
C#17) Brockport (19-6, 0.519, 2-3 vRRO, EA#6) 64% (31% SUNYAC or 48% C), 59% if CF, 42% if lose out
C#18) Wooster (19-7, 0.535, 3-5 vRRO, GL#5) 58% (23% NCAC or 45% C), 84% if CF, 20% if lose out
C#19) Emory (17-7, 0.546, 1-3 vRRO, SO#2) 37% C, 97% if CF
C#20) Endicott (21-5, 0.509, 1-1 vRRO, NE#10) 60% (42% CCC or 31% C), 38% if CF, 13% if lose out
C#21) Denison (22-4, 0.466, 3-2 vRRO, GL#7) 41% (16% NCAC or 29% C), 55% if CF, 21% if lose out
C#22) Augustana (18-7, 0.534, 2-2 vRRO, CE#5) 44% (21% CCIW or 28% C), 49% if CF, 7% if lose out

Longshots for Pool C (6) (10%-19% if no AQ)
A) Carthage (17-7, 0.549, 2-2 vRRO, CE#6) 52% (43% CCIW or 15% C), 20% if CF, 3% if lose out
C#23) Keene State (18-8, 0.570, 2-3 vRRO, NE#9) 33% (23% LEC or 14% C), 29% if CF, 1% if lose out
C#24) LeTourneau (20-4, 0.480, 1-1 vRRO, SO#5) 37% (28% ASC or 13% C), 40% if CF, 1% if lose out
A) Ohio Wesleyan (20-6, 0.502, 2-3 vRRO, GL#8) 55% (50% NCAC or 10% C)
A) E Connecticut (18-8, 0.564, 3-4 vRRO, NE#8) 58% (53% LEC or 10% C), 13% if CF, 4% if lose out
A) Nebraska Wesleyan (17-6, 0.521, 1-1 vRRO, WE#5) 46% (40% IIAC or 10% C), 22% if CF, 2% if lose out

Real Longshots for Pool C (would be 10%+ if lost conference final)
A) C-M-S (18-3, 0.485, 1-1 vRRO, WE#6) 52% (48% SCIAC or 7% C), 10% if CF, 4% if lose out
C) Moravian (17-6, 0.511, 4-4 vRRO, MA#8) 29% (23% LAND or 7% C), 17% if CF, 1% if lose out

Other conference favorites (not realistic Pool C candidates)
A) St Norbert (19-4, 0.501, 1-2 vRRO, CE) 57% (55% MWC or 3% C), 5% if CF, 2% if lose out
A) St Vincent (19-6, 0.488, 1-0 vRRO, GL) 52% (51% PAC or 1% C), 1% if CF
A) So Vermont (16-8, 0.496, 0-2 vRRO, NE) 65% (65% NECC or 0% C)
A) Husson (19-6, 0.489, 0-0 vRRO, NE) 65% (65% NAC or 0% C)
A) Staten Island (19-5, 0.491, 0-4 vRRO, AT#7) 62% (62% CUNYAC or 0% C)
A) Albertus Magnus (21-4, 0.480, 0-2 vRRO, NE) 60% (60% GNAC or 0% C)
A) Fitchburg State (15-10, 0.487, 0-3 vRRO, NE) 55% (55% MASCAC or 0% C)
A) Rhodes (14-10, 0.449, 0-1 vRRO, SO) 53% (53% SAA or 0% C)
A) Medaille (19-5, 0.459, 0-0 vRRO, GL) 53% (53% AMCC or 0% C)
A) Greenville (IL) (19-5, 0.461, 0-0 vRRO, CE) 49% (49% SLIAC or 0% C)
A) Morrisville State (20-5, 0.464, 0-0 vRRO, EA) 47% (47% NEAC or 0% C)
A) Nichols (21-5, 0.471, 1-1 vRRO, NE) 46% (46% CCC or 0% C)
A) Schreiner (14-11, 0.549, 0-5 vRRO, SO) 44% (44% SCAC or 0% C)
A) Delaware Valley (16-9, 0.537, 0-4 vRRO, AT#8) 43% (43% MACF or 0% C)
A) Farmingdale State (18-7, 0.475, 0-2 vRRO, AT) 43% (43% SKY or 0% C)
A) Bethany Lutheran (16-7, 0.461, 0-1 vRRO, WE) 37% (37% UMAC or 0% C)
A) Averett (11-13, 0.525, 1-3 vRRO, SO) 21% (21% USAC or 0% C)

Greek Tragedy · February 22, 2017, 08:45:58 PM

Susquehanna stealing a Pool C losing to Moravian, losing by 8 with 2 to play.

Cabrini, ~~already on the bubble, also down late.~~ was 4th in the Atlantic and they lost tonight. It doesn't look good for them.

stlawus · February 22, 2017, 09:20:42 PM

SLU loses at the buzzer to Union in double OT. Man that was brutal. Correct me if I'm wrong but I assume they're in good shape for an at large bid.

Gregory Sager · February 22, 2017, 09:26:08 PM

Quote from: sac on February 22, 2017, 04:57:48 PM
This is the data used for this weeks Central Region poll

Oshkosh .640/.588/4-5
NP .708/.532/4-2 (presumed NP is ahead of IWU but maybe not)
IWU .667/.555/5-2

IWU has certainly closed whatever gaps there were here, IWU now presents .680/.555/6-2 (SOS might go up or down a few pts). Between IWU/Oshkosh there is no head-to-head, in common opponents there is only Augustana. Oshkosh lost to Augie, IWU went 1-1 but has a really convincing 30 point win as the most recent result.

Yes, but of course the AC @ IWU final margin doesn't enter into it. And you missed that IWU and UWO have another common opponent: Carthage. IWU has a 3-1 to 0-2 common-opponent advantage over UWO (the Titans from south of the Cheddar Curtain split with Augie and swept Carthage, while the Titans from north of the Cheddar Curtain lost to both Augie and Carthage).

NPU also enjoys a common-opponent advantage over UWO. The Vikings swept Augie and were swept in turn by Carthage, but, again, UWO went 0-2 against the CCIW's two Lutheran schools, while NPU went 2-2.

warriorcat · February 22, 2017, 09:28:04 PM

What a night for upsets.

Susquehanna should be safe, but Cabrini and St Lawrence will have to sweat it out until Monday. They both have low SOS's.

fantastic50 · February 22, 2017, 09:29:36 PM

There will be no bubble busted by Susquehanna losing, as long as Scranton wins the AQ over Moravian, since both Susquehanna and Scranton were expected to make the tournament.

Titan Q · February 22, 2017, 09:48:46 PM

Here is what I have as of Wednesday night at 8:45pm Central. Please let me know if I have any mistakes with the data.

(As always, all data is courtesy Matt Snyder - http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/.)

Tier 1 - In Great Shape
1. Tufts (NE/NESCAC): .800/.563/4-3
2. UW-Whitewater (C/WIAC): .800/.564/2-3
3. Rochester (E/UAA): .875/.526/4-1
4. Susquehanna (MA/LAND): .800/.547/3-2 *Winning % updated through Wednesday loss*
5. Whitworth (W/NWC): .880/.525/1-2
6. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC): .760/.558/4-3
7. Salisbury (MA/CAC): .760/.526/3-3
8. St. Lawrence (E/LL): .800/.522/2-5
9. Amherst (NE/NESCAC): .708/.596/5-5
10. Williams (NE/NESCAC): .720/.585/5-4

Tier 2 - Projected In
11. Wooster (GL/NCAC): .731/.536/4-5
12. Skidmore (E/LL): .731/.524/6-1 *Winning % updated through Wednesday loss*
13. Augustana (C/CCIW): .720/.535/2-3
14. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .778/.517/5-3
15. Emory (S/UAA): .708/.541/2-3

Tier 3 - End of the Bubble; Pick 1; Other 5 projected out due to expected upsets
16. UW-Eau Claire (C/WIAC): .680/.570/3-2
17. Keene State (NE/LEC): .692/.568/2-3
18. Illinois Wesleyan (C/CCIW): .680/.557/6-2
19. Concordia TX (S/ASC): .727/.540/1-2
20. MIT (NE/NEWMAC): .760/.542/0-4
21. North Park (C/CCIW): .720/.524/4-2

Projected Out
22. John Carroll (GL/OAC): .680/.562/2-5
23. Loras (W/IIAC): .720/.544/1-2
24. Mount St. Joseph (GL/HCAC): .792/.510/2-1
25. Cabrini (AT/CSAC): .760/.522/1-4 *Winning % updated through Wednesday loss*
26. Brockport (E/SUNYAC): .760/.520/2-4
27. Catholic (MA/LAND): .680/.547/2-5
28. Emory & Henry (S/ODAC): .708/.524/1-4
29. Carleton (W/MIAC): .708/.524/1-2
30. UW-Oshkosh (C/WIAC): .640/.586/4-5

warriorcat · February 22, 2017, 10:22:06 PM

You will have to add Skidmore to Pool C candidates as they go down to Hobart in the Liberty League semis.

Smitty Oom · February 22, 2017, 10:36:24 PM

Did the Liberty League just become a three bid league??

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · February 22, 2017, 11:37:11 PM

Quote from: Smitty Oom on February 22, 2017, 10:36:24 PM
Did the Liberty League just become a three bid league??

With all the upsets, I'm not sure Skidmore's SOS will be good enough to get in. 6-1 RRO is nice, though. We'll see.

Greek Tragedy · February 23, 2017, 12:01:51 AM

Here is NCAA's Regional Rankings, updated through Sunday, using their numbers

RK	Reg	School	Con	Win%	vRRO	SoS	RESULTS
1	ATL	Neumann 23-2	CSAC	0.920	5-0	0.503
2	ATL	Ramapo 23-2	NJAC	0.920	5-2	0.491
3	ATL	NJCU 20-6	NJAC	0.769	4-3	0.507
4	ATL	Cabrini 19-5	CSAC	0.792	1-4	0.522
5	ATL	TCNJ 18-7	NJAC	0.720	3-4	0.515
6	ATL	Rowan 17-9	NJAC	0.654	3-5	0.552
7	ATL	Staten Is 19-5	CUNYAC	0.792	0-4	0.491
8	ATL	Delaware V 16-9	MACF	0.640	1-4	0.538
RK	Reg	School	Con	Win%	vRRO	SoS
1	CENT	River Falls 20-3	WIAC	0.870	6-2	0.594
2	CENT	Wash U 20-4	UAA	0.833	7-3	0.574
3	CENT	Whitewater 19-5	WIAC	0.792	2-3	0.565
4	CENT	Eau Claire 17-7	WIAC	0.708	3-2	0.570
5	CENT	Augustana 18-6	CCIW	0.750	2-2	0.528
6	CENT	Carthage 16-7	CCIW	0.696	2-4	0.554
7	CENT	Benedictine 21-3	NACC	0.875	0-0	0.490
8	CENT	Oshkosh 16-9	WIAC	0.640	4-5	0.588
RK	Reg	School	Con	Win%	vRRO	SoS
1	EAST	Rochester 21-3	UAA	0.875	4-1	0.526
2	EAST	SJF 20-5	E8	0.800	1-3	0.543
3	EAST	Skidmore 19-6	LL	0.760	6-1	0.524
4	EAST	St Lawrence 20-5	LL	0.800	2-5	0.521
5	EAST	Oswego St 19-6	SUNYAC	0.760	3-2	0.522
6	EAST	Brockport 19-6	SUNYAC	0.760	2-4	0.518
7	EAST	Cortland 17-8	SUNYAC	0.680	3-3	0.532
8	EAST	Union 14-9	LL	0.609	2-6	0.528
RK	Reg	School	Con	Win%	vRRO	SoS
1	GL	Marietta 21-4	OAC	0.840	4-4	0.578
2	GL	Hanover 19-3	HCAC	0.864	2-2	0.523
3	GL	Hope 19-4	MIAA	0.826	2-1	0.519
4	GL	Mt St Joseph 19-5	HCAC	0.792	2-1	0.510
5	GL	Wooster 18-7	NCAC	0.720	4-5	0.537
6	GL	JCU 17-7	OAC	0.708	2-5	0.563
7	GL	Denison 21-4	NCAC	0.840	3-2	0.466
8	GL	Ohio Wes 19-6	NCAC	0.760	3-4	0.508
9	GL	Ohio North 16-9	OAC	0.640	2-4	0.550
RK	Reg	School	Con	Win%	vRRO	SoS
1	M-ATL	CNU 23-2	CAC	0.920	2-2	0.522
2	M-ATL	Susquehanna 20-4	LAND	0.833	3-2	0.546
3	M-ATL	Lycoming 20-4	MACC	0.833	0-1	0.525
4	M-ATL	Swarthmore 20-5	CC	0.800	2-2	0.523
5	M-ATL	Scranton 19-6	LAND	0.760	5-3	0.524
6	M-ATL	Salisbury 19-6	CAC	0.760	3-3	0.524
7	M-ATL	Catholic 17-8	LAND	0.680	2-5	0.546
8	M-ATL	Moravian 17-6	LAND	0.739	4-4	0.510
RK	Reg	School	Con	Win%	vRRO	SoS
1	NE	Babson 24-1	NEWMAC	0.960	4-1	0.572
2	NE	Middlebury 22-3	NESCAC	0.880	7-3	0.605
3	NE	Tufts 20-5	NESCAC	0.800	4-3	0.562
4	NE	Wesleyan 19-6	NESCAC	0.760	4-3	0.560
5	NE	Amherst 17-7	NESCAC	0.708	5-5	0.595
6	NE	Williams 18-7	NESCAC	0.720	5-4	0.584
7	NE	MIT 19-6	NEWMAC	0.760	0-4	0.540
8	NE	E Conn 17-8	LEC	0.680	3-4	0.563
9	NE	Keene St 17-8	LEC	0.680	2-3	0.572
10	NE	Endicott 20-5	CCC	0.800	1-1	0.510
11	NE	Mass-Dart 16-9	LEC	0.640	4-2	0.545
RK	Reg	School	Con	Win%	vRRO	SoS
1	SOUTH	Hardin-Simmons 18-6	ASC	0.750	3-1	0.556
2	SOUTH	Emory 17-7	UAA	0.708	2-3	0.541
3	SOUTH	Guilford 20-5	ODAC	0.800	2-2	0.500
4	SOUTH	Con Tex 16-6	ASC	0.727	1-2	0.539
5	SOUTH	LeTourneau 18-4	ASC	0.818	1-1	0.486
6	SOUTH	RMC 17-8	ODAC	0.680	1-3	0.523
7	SOUTH	Emory & Henry 17-7	ODAC	0.708	1-4	0.527
8	SOUTH	VWC 17-8	ODAC	0.680	1-6	0.531
RK	Reg	School	Con	Win%	vRRO	SoS
1	WEST	Whitman 25-0	NWC	1.000	4-0	0.535
2	WEST	Whitworth 22-3	NWC	0.880	1-2	0.527
3	WEST	St Thomas 19-6	MIAC	0.760	0-1	0.522
4	WEST	Loras 18-7	IIAC	0.720	1-2	0.544
5	WEST	Neb Wes 17-6	IIAC	0.739	1-1	0.521
6	WEST	CMS 17-3	SCIAC	0.850	2-2	0.486
7	WEST	Carleton 16-7	MIAC	0.696	1-2	0.523
8	WEST	Cal Lutheran 17-6	SCIAC	0.739	3-3	0.502

fantastic50 · February 23, 2017, 09:21:54 AM

Through Wednesday's games

Officially clinched berth (1)
A) Washington U. (20-4, 0.577, 7-2 vRRO, CE#2) won UAA AQ

Locks or near-locks (14)
A) Babson (24-1, 0.576, 4-1 vRRO, NE#1) lock, 82% NEWMAC AQ
A) Chris Newport (23-2, 0.526, 3-2 vRRO, MA#1) lock, 81% CAC AQ
A) Marietta (22-4, 0.576, 4-4 vRRO, GL#1) lock, 76% OAC AQ
A) Whitman (25-0, 0.537, 4-0 vRRO, WE#1) lock, 76% NWC AQ
A) Neumann (24-2, 0.508, 6-0 vRRO, AT#1) lock, 74% CSAC AQ
A) UW-River Falls (20-3, 0.593, 7-3 vRRO, CE#1) lock, 52% WIAC AQ
A) Middlebury (22-3, 0.609, 6-3 vRRO, NE#2) lock, 43% NESCAC AQ
C#1) Tufts (20-5, 0.567, 4-3 vRRO, NE#3) lock, 30% NESCAC AQ
C#2) UW-Whitewater (19-5, 0.566, 3-4 vRRO, CE#3) near-lock, 19% WIAC AQ
C#3) Rochester (21-3, 0.532, 4-1 vRRO, EA#1) near-lock, no AQ
A) Ramapo (24-2, 0.497, 6-2 vRRO, AT#2) near-lock, 73% NJAC AQ
C#4) Susquehanna (20-5, 0.558, 4-4 vRRO, MA#2) near-lock, no AQ
C#5) Wesleyan (CT) (19-6, 0.559, 4-3 vRRO, NE#4) near-lock, no AQ
A) Lycoming (21-4, 0.531, 1-1 vRRO, MA#3) near-lock, 82% MACC AQ

Strong position (9) (80%+ for Pool C, if no AQ)
A) Hanover (19-3, 0.520, 2-2 vRRO, GL#2) 99% (57% HCAC or 99% C), 99% if CF, 98% if lose out
C#6) New Jersey City (21-6, 0.518, 5-3 vRRO, AT#3) 97% (27% NJAC or 96% C), 96% if CF
C#7) Whitworth (22-3, 0.525, 0-2 vRRO, WE#2) 96% (22% NWC or 95% C), 97% if CF, 84% if lose out
A) Hardin-Simmons (19-6, 0.555, 3-1 vRRO, SO#1) 96% (34% ASC or 94% C), 98% if CF, 93% if lose out
A) Hope (19-4, 0.520, 2-1 vRRO, GL#3) 97% (61% MIAA or 91% C), 94% if CF, 88% if lose out
C#8) Amherst (17-7, 0.599, 5-5 vRRO, NE#5) 91% C
A) Scranton (20-6, 0.535, 7-3 vRRO, MA#5) 96% (59% LAND or 89% C), 89% if CF
C#9) Skidmore (19-7, 0.525, 6-1 vRRO, EA#3) 87% C
C#10) St Lawrence (19-6, 0.523, 3-5 vRRO, EA#4) 83% C

Bubble teams if no AQ (17) (20-79% for Pool C if no AQ)
C#11) Salisbury (19-6, 0.528, 3-3 vRRO, MA#6) 79% (12% CAC or 76% C), 87% if CF, 59% if lose out
A) Oswego State (18-6, 0.522, 3-2 vRRO, EA#5) 82% (39% SUNYAC or 71% C), 83% if CF, 62% if lose out
C#12) Mt St Joseph (18-5, 0.508, 2-1 vRRO, GL#4) 77% (20% HCAC or 71% C), 82% if CF, 59% if lose out
C#13) Cabrini (19-6, 0.531, 2-3 vRRO, AT#4) 71% C
A) Guilford (20-5, 0.503, 3-2 vRRO, SO#3) 80% (34% ODAC or 69% C), 84% if CF, 50% if lose out
C#14) St Thomas (MN) (19-6, 0.524, 1-2 vRRO, WE#3) 78% (36% MIAC or 66% C), 71% if CF, 59% if lose out
C#15) Williams (18-7, 0.586, 6-4 vRRO, NE#6) 68% (15% NESCAC or 62% C), 96% if CF, 50% if lose out
A) Benedictine (IL) (21-3, 0.490, 1-0 vRRO, CE#7) 86% (64% NACC or 60% C), 69% if CF, 51% if lose out
A) Swarthmore (20-5, 0.521, 1-1 vRRO, MA#4) 79% (51% CC or 57% C), 64% if CF, 48% if lose out
C#16) MIT (19-6, 0.546, 0-4 vRRO, NE#7) 61% (14% NEWMAC or 55% C), 67% if CF, 33% if lose out
C#17) Concordia (TX) (17-6, 0.543, 1-3 vRRO, SO#4) 65% (24% ASC or 54% C), 85% if CF, 52% if lose out
C#18) UW-Eau Claire (17-7, 0.571, 3-4 vRRO, CE#4) 56% (8% WIAC or 52% C), 97% if CF, 13% if lose out
projected cut line (after more Pool C berths disappear when strong teams don't win Pool A berths)
A) St John Fisher (20-5, 0.545, 0-3 vRRO, EA#2) 86% (73% E8 or 49% C), 56% if CF, 41% if lose out
C#19) Brockport (19-6, 0.519, 2-3 vRRO, EA#6) 61% (31% SUNYAC or 44% C), 54% if CF, 33% if lose out
C#20) Wooster (19-7, 0.536, 3-5 vRRO, GL#5) 57% (24% NCAC or 43% C), 79% if CF, 16% if lose out
C#21) Emory (17-7, 0.546, 1-3 vRRO, SO#2) 36% C, 98% if win out, 1% if lose out
C#22) Endicott (21-5, 0.509, 1-1 vRRO, NE#10) 57% (42% CCC or 27% C), 32% if CF, 13% if lose out
C#23) Augustana (18-7, 0.534, 2-2 vRRO, CE#5) 41% (21% CCIW or 26% C), 50% if CF, 11% if lose out
C#24) Denison (22-4, 0.466, 3-2 vRRO, GL#7) 39% (17% NCAC or 26% C), 52% if CF, 14% if lose out

Longshots for Pool C (5) (10%-19% if no AQ)
C#25) Moravian (18-6, 0.520, 5-4 vRRO, MA#8) 53% (41% LAND or 19% C), 19% if CF
A) Carthage (17-7, 0.549, 2-2 vRRO, CE#6) 53% (44% CCIW or 16% C), 30% if CF, 5% if lose out
C#26) Keene State (18-8, 0.570, 2-3 vRRO, NE#9) 35% (23% LEC or 15% C), 30% if CF, 4% if lose out
A) E Connecticut (18-8, 0.564, 3-4 vRRO, NE#8) 58% (52% LEC or 12% C), 17% if CF, 5% if lose out
C#27) LeTourneau (20-4, 0.480, 1-1 vRRO, SO#5) 36% (28% ASC or 10% C), 28% if CF, 4% if lose out

Real Longshots for Pool C (would be 10%+ if lost conference final)
A) Nebraska Wesleyan (17-6, 0.522, 1-1 vRRO, WE#5) 45% (40% IIAC or 9% C), 17% if CF, 1% if lose out
A) Ohio Wesleyan (20-6, 0.503, 2-3 vRRO, GL#8) 53% (49% NCAC or 8% C), 11% if CF, 4% if lose out
C) UW-Oshkosh (16-9, 0.587, 4-5 vRRO, CE#8) 23% (19% WIAC or 5% C), 11% if CF, 1% if lose out

Other conference favorites (not realistic Pool C candidates)
A) C-M-S (18-3, 0.485, 1-1 vRRO, WE#6) 51% (48% SCIAC or 5% C), 7% if CF, 2% if lose out
A) St Norbert (19-4, 0.501, 1-2 vRRO, CE) 56% (55% MWC or 3% C), 4% if CF, 1% if lose out
A) Staten Island (20-5, 0.498, 0-4 vRRO, AT#7) 74% (73% CUNYAC or 1% C), 1% if CF
A) St Vincent (19-6, 0.488, 1-0 vRRO, GL) 52% (51% PAC or 1% C), 1% if CF
A) Carleton (17-7, 0.524, 1-2 vRRO, WE#7) 36% (36% MIAC or 1% C), 4% if CF
A) So Vermont (16-8, 0.496, 0-2 vRRO, NE) 67% (67% NECC or 0% C)
A) Husson (19-6, 0.489, 0-0 vRRO, NE) 65% (65% NAC or 0% C)
A) Albertus Magnus (21-4, 0.480, 0-2 vRRO, NE) 60% (60% GNAC or 0% C)
A) Union (NY) (15-9, 0.535, 1-6 vRRO, EA#8) 58% (58% LL or 0% C)
A) Fitchburg State (15-10, 0.487, 0-3 vRRO, NE) 55% (55% MASCAC or 0% C)
A) Rhodes (14-10, 0.449, 0-1 vRRO, SO) 54% (54% SAA or 0% C)
A) Medaille (19-5, 0.460, 0-0 vRRO, GL) 53% (53% AMCC or 0% C)
A) Northwestern (MN) (18-7, 0.454, 0-0 vRRO, WE) 52% (52% UMAC or 0% C)
A) Greenville (IL) (19-5, 0.461, 0-0 vRRO, CE) 49% (49% SLIAC or 0% C)
A) Morrisville State (20-5, 0.464, 0-0 vRRO, EA) 47% (47% NEAC or 0% C)
A) Misericordia (19-7, 0.512, 1-4 vRRO, AT) 46% (46% MACF or 0% C)
A) Nichols (21-5, 0.471, 1-1 vRRO, NE) 46% (46% CCC or 0% C)
A) Schreiner (14-11, 0.549, 0-5 vRRO, SO) 44% (44% SCAC or 0% C)
A) Farmingdale State (18-7, 0.475, 0-2 vRRO, AT) 43% (43% SKY or 0% C)
A) Averett (11-13, 0.525, 1-3 vRRO, SO) 21% (21% USAC or 0% C)

fantastic50 · February 23, 2017, 09:25:41 AM

Today's bubble games (percentages are Pool C probability with win/loss)
York (PA) (17-9, 0.516, 1-4) at Salisbury (19-6, 0.528, 3-3 vRRO, MA#6) 87%/59%
E Nazarene (13-13, 0.514, 1-2) at Endicott (21-5, 0.509, 1-1 vRRO, NE#10) 32%/13%
Linfield (12-10, 0.522, 0-5) at Whitworth (22-3, 0.525, 0-2 vRRO, WE#2) 97%/84%
UW-Whitewater (19-5, 0.566, 3-4 vRRO, CE#3) (Pool C lock) at UW-Oshkosh (16-9, 0.587, 4-5 vRRO, CE#8) 14%/1%

Also of bubble interest, the OAC would have a "bid thief" if Marietta (safely in) were to lose to Mount Union. So bubble teams want to see Marietta win today, along with Christopher Newport & Concordia (TX).

Potential multi-bid leagues (average # of bids)
NESCAC 4.71
WIAC 2.81
LL 2.70
LAND 2.48
UAA 2.36
ASC 2.11
HCAC 1.99
NJAC 1.98
NWC 1.98
CSAC 1.97
CAC 1.86
SUNYAC 1.73
NEWMAC 1.65
NCAC 1.59
ODAC 1.46
MIAC 1.44
MIAA 1.36
CCIW 1.32
CC 1.28
OAC 1.24
NACC 1.21
LEC 1.19
MACC 1.18
CCC 1.16
E8 1.14
IIAC 1.07

warriorcat · February 23, 2017, 09:34:48 AM

Quote from: fantastic50 on February 23, 2017, 09:25:41 AM
Today's bubble games (percentages are Pool C probability with win/loss)
UW-LaCrosse (12-12, 0.554, 3-8) at UW-Eau Claire (17-7, 0.571, 3-4 vRRO, CE#4) 66%/13%
York (PA) (17-9, 0.516, 1-4) at Salisbury (19-6, 0.528, 3-3 vRRO, MA#6) 87%/59%
E Nazarene (13-13, 0.514, 1-2) at Endicott (21-5, 0.509, 1-1 vRRO, NE#10) 32%/13%
Linfield (12-10, 0.522, 0-5) at Whitworth (22-3, 0.525, 0-2 vRRO, WE#2) 97%/84%

Also of bubble interest, the OAC would have a "bid thief" if Marietta (safely in) were to lose to Mount Union. So bubble teams want to see Marietta win today, along with Christopher Newport & Concordia (TX).

Potential multi-bid leagues (average # of bids)
NESCAC 4.71
WIAC 2.81
LL 2.70
LAND 2.48
UAA 2.36
ASC 2.11
HCAC 1.99
NJAC 1.98
NWC 1.98
CSAC 1.97
CAC 1.86
SUNYAC 1.73
NEWMAC 1.65
NCAC 1.59
ODAC 1.46
MIAC 1.44
MIAA 1.36
CCIW 1.32
CC 1.28
OAC 1.24
NACC 1.21
LEC 1.19
MACC 1.18
CCC 1.16
E8 1.14
IIAC 1.07

UW-Eau Claire has already been knocked out of the WIAC Tournament UW- LaCrosse is playing UW-RiverFalls