Pool C

fantastic50 · February 24, 2018, 10:23:34 PM

Quote from: Titan Q on February 24, 2018, 10:12:05 PM
I've got IWU ahead of North Central because the numbers seem to suggest that. Drew, do you also have IWU's numbers better than NCC's?

There is some drama that has to play out in terms of which team gets ranked higher in the final Central ranking. But I do have both in.

I have IWU with marginally better numbers, but NCC's 2-1 head-to-head advantage could be enough to flip it, and both teams are on the bubble.

Titan Q · February 24, 2018, 10:28:26 PM

Quote from: fantastic50 on February 24, 2018, 10:23:34 PM
Quote from: Titan Q on February 24, 2018, 10:12:05 PM
I've got IWU ahead of North Central because the numbers seem to suggest that. Drew, do you also have IWU's numbers better than NCC's?

There is some drama that has to play out in terms of which team gets ranked higher in the final Central ranking. But I do have both in.

I have IWU with marginally better numbers, but NCC's 2-1 head-to-head advantage could be enough to flip it, and both teams are on the bubble.

It definitely makes a difference which way it goes. If NCC is ranked ahead of IWU in the Central, they will get picked lower in the process than IWU would. (Which is why I struggle to put NCC ahead of IWU.) But I still think NCC would get picked, and then IWU would get selected as soon as the Titans hit the table.

I flipped mine to have NCC ahead of IWU.

fantastic50 · February 24, 2018, 10:34:23 PM

Tonight, I found a small coding issue that made my model slightly overconfident. Fixing it pulls a few teams toward the bubble, from both ends. These numbers are as of 10 pm Saturday.

Locks & near-locks
100% (C#1) Wesleyan (21-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.590, 8-3 vRRO, NE#2) 37% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.598 / 9-4
100% (A) Williams (20-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.595, 7-4 vRRO, NE#4) 63% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.599 / 7-5
100% (C#2) Hamilton (22-4, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.573, 6-3 vRRO, NE#1) 0% A, proj. 7-3 vRRO
100% (A) Whitman (25-0, 16-0 NWC, SOS 0.515, 4-0 vRRO, WE#1) 81% A, proj. 0.962 / 0.526 / 4-1
100% (C#3) UW-Platteville (20-4, 12-2 WIAC, SOS 0.577, 4-1 vRRO, CE#2) 0% A, proj. 5-3 vRRO
100% (C#4) Middlebury (19-6, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.590, 4-6 vRRO, NE#5) 0% A, proj. 5-6 vRRO
100% (C#5) Marietta (21-6, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.564, 4-5 vRRO, GL#4) 0% A, proj. 5-5 vRRO
100% (C#6) Wooster (21-6, 14-4 NCAC, SOS 0.565, 4-3 vRRO, GL#2) 0% A, proj. 4-3 vRRO
100% (C#7) New Jersey City (19-7, 13-5 NJAC, SOS 0.567, 6-4 vRRO, AT#2) 0% A, proj. 7-4 vRRO
99% (C#8) St. John's (22-3, 19-1 MIAC, SOS 0.524, 3-2 vRRO, WE#2) 0% A, proj. 5-2 vRRO
99% (C#9) Swarthmore (22-5, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.542, 3-4 vRRO, MA#5) 0% A, proj. 4-4 vRRO
99% (C#10) Emory (21-4, 12-2 UAA, SOS 0.530, 4-2 vRRO, SO#1) 0% A, proj. 4-2 vRRO
98% (C#11) Christopher Newport (21-6, 14-4 CAC, SOS 0.546, 3-2 vRRO, MA#2) 0% A, proj. 3-2 vRRO

Strong contenders
96% (C#12) Whitworth (23-3, 14-2 NWC, SOS 0.520, 1-3 vRRO, WE#3) 19% A, fin 96% C
87% (C#13) St. Olaf (19-7, 15-5 MIAC, SOS 0.544, 3-2 vRRO, WE#4) 0% A, proj. 5-3 vRRO
83% (A) UW-Stevens Point (18-8, 11-3 WIAC, SOS 0.605, 4-6 vRRO, CE#5) 62% A, fin 83% C
83% (C#14) Albright (20-6, 12-4 MACC, SOS 0.544, 3-2 vRRO, MA#3) 0% A, proj. 3-2 vRRO

Bubble-in
77% (C#15) UW-Oshkosh (20-7, 9-5 WIAC, SOS 0.554, 2-4 vRRO, CE#4) 0% A, proj. 4-5 vRRO
75% (C#16) Franklin and Marshall (20-6, 14-4 CC, SOS 0.536, 3-4 vRRO, MA#6) 0% A, proj. 3-4 vRRO
66% (C#17) LeTourneau (23-4, 16-2 ASC, SOS 0.511, 2-2 vRRO, SO#4) 0% A, proj. 3-4 vRRO
60% (C#18) Augsburg (20-7, 13-7 MIAC, SOS 0.539, 4-3 vRRO, WE#6) 38% A, fin 60% C
56% (C#19) Illinois Wesleyan (19-7, 12-4 CCIW, SOS 0.550, 3-6 vRRO, CE#6) 0% A, proj. 3-6 vRRO
51% (A) MIT (21-5, 10-4 NEWMAC, SOS 0.531, 2-3 vRRO, NE#9) 76% A, fin 51% C
49% (C#20) Salem State (22-4, 12-0 MASCAC, SOS 0.512, 1-2 vRRO, NE#10) 0% A, proj. 1-2 vRRO

Bubble-out
40% (C#21) Keene State (19-9, 11-3 LEC, SOS 0.575, 2-6 vRRO, NE#8) 0% A, proj. 3-6 vRRO
40% (C#22) Loras (19-7, 12-4 IIAC, SOS 0.542, 2-3 vRRO, WE#7) 0% A, proj. 3-3 vRRO
37% (C#23) Springfield (18-8, 12-2 NEWMAC, SOS 0.558, 4-2 vRRO, NE#6) 0% A, proj. 4-2 vRRO
36% (A) Hobart (21-5, 16-2 LL, SOS 0.526, 1-2 vRRO, EA#1) 62% A, fin 41% C, semi 28% C
32% (C#24) North Central (Ill.) (18-8, 11-5 CCIW, SOS 0.563, 4-5 vRRO, CE#7) 0% A, proj. 4-5 vRRO
24% (C#25) East Texas Baptist (21-7, 12-4 ASC, SOS 0.538, 2-6 vRRO, SO) 0% A, proj. 2-6 vRRO
23% (C#26) Tufts (17-8, 6-4 NESCAC, SOS 0.581, 2-7 vRRO, NE#11) 0% A, proj. 2-7 vRRO
21% (C#27) Ripon (18-7, 14-4 MWC, SOS 0.541, 1-2 vRRO, CE) 0% A, proj. 2-4 vRRO
20% (C#28) UW-River Falls (18-8, 7-7 WIAC, SOS 0.586, 3-6 vRRO, CE) 38% A, fin 20% C
20% (C#29) Gwynedd Mercy (20-6, 15-3 CSAC, SOS 0.519, 2-3 vRRO, AT#4) 0% A, proj. 4-4 vRRO

Fringe contenders
18% (C#30) Brockport (19-7, 14-4 SUNYAC, SOS 0.530, 3-3 vRRO, EA#3) 0% A, proj. 3-3 vRRO
18% (C#31) Randolph-Macon (18-8, 12-4 ODAC, SOS 0.546, 3-3 vRRO, SO#2) 0% A, proj. 4-3 vRRO
17% (C#32) Amherst (17-8, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.570, 4-6 vRRO, NE#7) 0% A, proj. 4-6 vRRO
9% (C#33) Ohio Wesleyan (19-9, 12-6 NCAC, SOS 0.564, 3-5 vRRO, GL#7) 0% A, proj. 3-5 vRRO

Longshots
2% (C#34) Baldwin Wallace (18-9, 11-7 OAC, SOS 0.556, 3-6 vRRO, GL#6) 0% A, proj. 4-6 vRRO

Upcoming potential bid thief games
WIAC: #2 UW-Stevens Point (83% C) vs #4 UW-River Falls (20% C)
NEWMAC: #3 MIT (51% C) vs #4 WPI (0% C)
MIAC: Augsburg (60% C) at Bethel (0% C)

Ralph Turner · February 24, 2018, 10:46:31 PM

Quote from: Titan Q on February 24, 2018, 08:45:10 PM
Two big wins for bubble teams...

Sul Ross State and Cabrini locked up Pool A bids.

Sully led by 17-10 over ETBU at the 11 minute mark of the first half. Then ETBU went on a 10-1 run. The score was tied at the half. Otherwise it was 6 point margin or less for the entire game.

Hoosiersfan2323 · February 24, 2018, 11:22:52 PM

Quote from: fantastic50 on February 24, 2018, 10:34:23 PM
Tonight, I found a small coding issue that made my model slightly overconfident. Fixing it pulls a few teams toward the bubble, from both ends. These numbers are as of 10 pm Saturday.

Locks & near-locks
100% (C#1) Wesleyan (21-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.590, 8-3 vRRO, NE#2) 37% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.598 / 9-4
100% (A) Williams (20-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.595, 7-4 vRRO, NE#4) 63% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.599 / 7-5
100% (C#2) Hamilton (22-4, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.573, 6-3 vRRO, NE#1) 0% A, proj. 7-3 vRRO
100% (A) Whitman (25-0, 16-0 NWC, SOS 0.515, 4-0 vRRO, WE#1) 81% A, proj. 0.962 / 0.526 / 4-1
100% (C#3) UW-Platteville (20-4, 12-2 WIAC, SOS 0.577, 4-1 vRRO, CE#2) 0% A, proj. 5-3 vRRO
100% (C#4) Middlebury (19-6, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.590, 4-6 vRRO, NE#5) 0% A, proj. 5-6 vRRO
100% (C#5) Marietta (21-6, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.564, 4-5 vRRO, GL#4) 0% A, proj. 5-5 vRRO
100% (C#6) Wooster (21-6, 14-4 NCAC, SOS 0.565, 4-3 vRRO, GL#2) 0% A, proj. 4-3 vRRO
100% (C#7) New Jersey City (19-7, 13-5 NJAC, SOS 0.567, 6-4 vRRO, AT#2) 0% A, proj. 7-4 vRRO
99% (C#8) St. John's (22-3, 19-1 MIAC, SOS 0.524, 3-2 vRRO, WE#2) 0% A, proj. 5-2 vRRO
99% (C#9) Swarthmore (22-5, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.542, 3-4 vRRO, MA#5) 0% A, proj. 4-4 vRRO
99% (C#10) Emory (21-4, 12-2 UAA, SOS 0.530, 4-2 vRRO, SO#1) 0% A, proj. 4-2 vRRO
98% (C#11) Christopher Newport (21-6, 14-4 CAC, SOS 0.546, 3-2 vRRO, MA#2) 0% A, proj. 3-2 vRRO

Strong contenders
96% (C#12) Whitworth (23-3, 14-2 NWC, SOS 0.520, 1-3 vRRO, WE#3) 19% A, fin 96% C
87% (C#13) St. Olaf (19-7, 15-5 MIAC, SOS 0.544, 3-2 vRRO, WE#4) 0% A, proj. 5-3 vRRO
83% (A) UW-Stevens Point (18-8, 11-3 WIAC, SOS 0.605, 4-6 vRRO, CE#5) 62% A, fin 83% C
83% (C#14) Albright (20-6, 12-4 MACC, SOS 0.544, 3-2 vRRO, MA#3) 0% A, proj. 3-2 vRRO

Bubble-in
77% (C#15) UW-Oshkosh (20-7, 9-5 WIAC, SOS 0.554, 2-4 vRRO, CE#4) 0% A, proj. 4-5 vRRO
75% (C#16) Franklin and Marshall (20-6, 14-4 CC, SOS 0.536, 3-4 vRRO, MA#6) 0% A, proj. 3-4 vRRO
66% (C#17) LeTourneau (23-4, 16-2 ASC, SOS 0.511, 2-2 vRRO, SO#4) 0% A, proj. 3-4 vRRO
60% (C#18) Augsburg (20-7, 13-7 MIAC, SOS 0.539, 4-3 vRRO, WE#6) 38% A, fin 60% C
56% (C#19) Illinois Wesleyan (19-7, 12-4 CCIW, SOS 0.550, 3-6 vRRO, CE#6) 0% A, proj. 3-6 vRRO
51% (A) MIT (21-5, 10-4 NEWMAC, SOS 0.531, 2-3 vRRO, NE#9) 76% A, fin 51% C
49% (C#20) Salem State (22-4, 12-0 MASCAC, SOS 0.512, 1-2 vRRO, NE#10) 0% A, proj. 1-2 vRRO

Bubble-out
40% (C#21) Keene State (19-9, 11-3 LEC, SOS 0.575, 2-6 vRRO, NE#8) 0% A, proj. 3-6 vRRO
40% (C#22) Loras (19-7, 12-4 IIAC, SOS 0.542, 2-3 vRRO, WE#7) 0% A, proj. 3-3 vRRO
37% (C#23) Springfield (18-8, 12-2 NEWMAC, SOS 0.558, 4-2 vRRO, NE#6) 0% A, proj. 4-2 vRRO
36% (A) Hobart (21-5, 16-2 LL, SOS 0.526, 1-2 vRRO, EA#1) 62% A, fin 41% C, semi 28% C
32% (C#24) North Central (Ill.) (18-8, 11-5 CCIW, SOS 0.563, 4-5 vRRO, CE#7) 0% A, proj. 4-5 vRRO
24% (C#25) East Texas Baptist (21-7, 12-4 ASC, SOS 0.538, 2-6 vRRO, SO) 0% A, proj. 2-6 vRRO
23% (C#26) Tufts (17-8, 6-4 NESCAC, SOS 0.581, 2-7 vRRO, NE#11) 0% A, proj. 2-7 vRRO
21% (C#27) Ripon (18-7, 14-4 MWC, SOS 0.541, 1-2 vRRO, CE) 0% A, proj. 2-4 vRRO
20% (C#28) UW-River Falls (18-8, 7-7 WIAC, SOS 0.586, 3-6 vRRO, CE) 38% A, fin 20% C
20% (C#29) Gwynedd Mercy (20-6, 15-3 CSAC, SOS 0.519, 2-3 vRRO, AT#4) 0% A, proj. 4-4 vRRO

Fringe contenders
18% (C#30) Brockport (19-7, 14-4 SUNYAC, SOS 0.530, 3-3 vRRO, EA#3) 0% A, proj. 3-3 vRRO
18% (C#31) Randolph-Macon (18-8, 12-4 ODAC, SOS 0.546, 3-3 vRRO, SO#2) 0% A, proj. 4-3 vRRO
17% (C#32) Amherst (17-8, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.570, 4-6 vRRO, NE#7) 0% A, proj. 4-6 vRRO
9% (C#33) Ohio Wesleyan (19-9, 12-6 NCAC, SOS 0.564, 3-5 vRRO, GL#7) 0% A, proj. 3-5 vRRO

Longshots
2% (C#34) Baldwin Wallace (18-9, 11-7 OAC, SOS 0.556, 3-6 vRRO, GL#6) 0% A, proj. 4-6 vRRO

Upcoming potential bid thief games
WIAC: #2 UW-Stevens Point (83% C) vs #4 UW-River Falls (20% C)
NEWMAC: #3 MIT (51% C) vs #4 WPI (0% C)
MIAC: Augsburg (60% C) at Bethel (0% C)

Interesting to see such a big jump for Loras. What do you attribute that to? And Bob - doesn't your model have them out of contention?

Titan Q · February 24, 2018, 11:27:42 PM

Quote from: Hoosiersfan2323 on February 24, 2018, 11:22:52 PM

Interesting to see such a big jump for Loras. What do you attribute that to? And Bob - doesn't your model have them out of contention?

I think that is attributed to teams losing today and falling back to the pack of teams that had already lost.

I have Loras in a similar spot -- competitive but on the wrong side of the bubble.

Hoosiersfan2323 · February 24, 2018, 11:28:59 PM

Quote from: Titan Q on February 24, 2018, 11:27:42 PM
Quote from: Hoosiersfan2323 on February 24, 2018, 11:22:52 PM

Interesting to see such a big jump for Loras. What do you attribute that to? And Bob - doesn't your model have them out of contention?

I think that is attributed to teams losing today and falling back to the pack of teams that had already lost.

I have Loras in a similar spot -- competitive but on the wrong side of the bubble.

40% chance compared to what, 11% this morning? Interesting to see such a jump. So in your opinion, is there anything that could happen tomorrow that could push them over the hump?

Titan Q · February 24, 2018, 11:30:46 PM

Drew and I only disagree on one team -- he has Keene State and I have North Central. We have 20 picks the same.

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1859685#msg1859685

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1859696#msg1859696

* North Central (CE/CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.563/4-5
* Keene State (NE/LEC): .679 (19-9)/.575/2-6

Titan Q · February 24, 2018, 11:31:52 PM

Quote from: Hoosiersfan2323 on February 24, 2018, 11:28:59 PM

40% chance compared to what, 11% this morning? Interesting to see such a jump. So in your opinion, is there anything that could happen tomorrow that could push them over the hump?

No. I think they're stuck on the wrong side.

Greek Tragedy · February 24, 2018, 11:56:04 PM

Man, that was a long 2 seconds for Roach to nail that 3 at the buzzer.

Ralph Turner · February 24, 2018, 11:58:45 PM

Quote from: Titan Q on February 24, 2018, 11:30:46 PM
Drew and I only disagree on one team -- he has Keene State and I have North Central. We have 20 picks the same.

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1859685#msg1859685

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1859696#msg1859696

* North Central (CE/CCIW): .692 (18-8)/.563/4-5
* Keene State (NE/LEC): .679 (19-9)/.575/2-6

Stirring the pot... (LOL)

CCIW bias!

(509)Rat · February 24, 2018, 11:59:22 PM

Whitman is now a pool C team, not that it changes anything with Whitworth getting the pool A out of the NWC

Titan Q · February 25, 2018, 12:02:12 AM

Quote from: (509)Rat on February 24, 2018, 11:59:22 PM
Whitman is now a pool C team, not that it changes anything with Whitworth getting the pool A out of the NWC

Already adjusted...

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1859685#msg1859685

augie77 · February 25, 2018, 12:36:27 AM

Not sure where else to put this...

In the Southern Athletic Conference (SAC), an eight team league, tomorrow's tournament championship features the 7 and 8 seeds, having knocked off all the teams above them. Berry (10-17) will play Hendrix (7-20). One of these teams is going to the dance! Go figure.

As for the loser, they just might be on the wrong side of the bubble.

Greek Tragedy · February 25, 2018, 01:06:41 AM

Quote from: augie77 on February 25, 2018, 12:36:27 AM
Not sure where else to put this...

In the Southern Athletic Conference (SAC), an eight team league, tomorrow's tournament championship features the 7 and 8 seeds, having knocked off all the teams above them. Berry (10-17) will play Hendrix (7-20). One of these teams is going to the dance! Go figure.

As for the loser, they just might be on the wrong side of the bubble.

They won't even be able to find the bubble.