Pool C

[WUPHF]

A bus ride to any NCAA site is better than no bus ride at all (see IWU this year).  BTW, who did Illinois Wesleyan lose to last year in the NCAA tourney?

[ronk]

  As it is now Selection Sunday, a fundamental question to be discussed on the board:

How does the committee distinguish among the 8 regions at the table using the primary criteria?
Within a region, how did they distinguish to come up with a #1 for the table rep?

Some would say they look at the 5 primary criteria on the data sheet, but 2(head-to-head and common opponents) aren't even listed. In the M/A, for example, do they rank all 36 teams in each criteria and come up with a composite ranking, using each criteria equally? If not, which other method?

I suggest that only 3 primary criteria are used, but are they all equal priority? They have eliminated the .03 = 1 loss, but how will they distinguish among the differences; that is, .04 difference in W/L % vs .022 in SOS vs 3 vrro results?

It's going to be important for the order of which teams are coming to the table and the table selection themselves. What's the priority? If no priority, how then?

[Titan Q]

Here is what I have as of Sunday morning.

Data Sources
http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_men.html

https://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-regional-rankings.html

No-Brainers
1. (C) Augustana: .889, 24-3/.547/8-3
2. (NE) Hamilton: .885, 23-3/.553/4-3
3. (NE) Williams: .769, 20-6/.598/6-5
4. (C) UW-Oshkosh: .885, 23-3/.542/3-3
5. (W) Loras: .778, 21-6/.587/2-2
6. (GL) Marietta: .769, 20-6/.549/6-4
7. (MA) York (Pa.): .750, 21-7/.561/6-4
8. (W) St. Thomas: .846, 22-4/.532/4-1
9. (GL) Wooster: .821, 23-5/.543/3-4
10. (E) Rochester: .800, 20-5/.539/5-2

Round 11
(AT) New Jersey City: .741, 20-7/.551/6-6
(C) Wheaton: .704, 19-8/.574/4-5
(E) Plattsburgh State: .760, 19-6/.531/6-6
(GL) Capital: .741, 20-7/.546/6-4
(MA) Salisbury: .704, 19-8/.575/4-7
(NE) MIT: .846, 22-4/.555/1-0
(S) Guilford: .741, 20-7/.535/4-4
(W) Whitworth: .778, 21-5/.544/1-3

Round 12
(AT) New Jersey City: .741, 20-7/.551/6-6
(C) Wheaton: .704, 19-8/.574/4-5
(E) Plattsburgh State: .760, 19-6/.531/6-6
(GL) Wabash: .760, 19-6/.533/2-4
(MA) Salisbury: .704, 19-8/.575/4-7
(NE) MIT: .846, 22-4/.555/1-0
(S) Guilford: .741, 20-7/.535/4-4
(W) Whitworth: .778, 21-5/.544/1-3

Round 13
(AT) New Jersey City: .741, 20-7/.551/6-6
(C) Wheaton: .704, 19-8/.574/4-5
(E) Plattsburgh State: .760, 19-6/.531/6-6
(GL) Wabash: .760, 19-6/.533/2-4
(MA) Salisbury: .704, 19-8/.575/4-7
(NE) MIT: .846, 22-4/.555/1-0
(S) Guilford: .741, 20-7/.535/4-4
(W) Whitworth: .778, 21-5/.544/1-3

Round 14
(AT) Ramapo: .667, 18-9/.567/8-5
(C) Wheaton: .704, 19-8/.574/4-5
(E) Brockport: .607, 17-10/.566/6-5
(GL) Wabash: .760, 19-6/.533/2-4
(MA) Salisbury: .704, 19-8/.575/4-7
(NE) MIT: .846, 22-4/.555/1-0
(S) Guilford: .741, 20-7/.535/4-4
(W) Whitworth: .778, 21-5/.544/1-3

Round 15
(AT) Ramapo: .667, 18-9/.567/8-5
(C) Wheaton: .704, 19-8/.574/4-5
(E) Brockport: .607, 17-10/.566/6-5
(GL) Wabash: .760, 19-6/.533/2-4
(MA) Salisbury: .704, 19-8/.575/4-7
(NE) Middlebury: .708, 17-7/.600/4-5
(S) Guilford: .741, 20-7/.535/4-4
(W) Whitworth: .778, 21-5/.544/1-3

Round 16
(AT) Ramapo: .667, 18-9/.567/8-5
(C) Wheaton: .704, 19-8/.574/4-5
(E) Brockport: .607, 17-10/.566/6-5
(GL) Wabash: .760, 19-6/.533/2-4
(MA) Salisbury: .704, 19-8/.575/4-7
(NE) Eastern Connecticut: .741, 20-7/.557/2-5
(S) Guilford: .741, 20-7/.535/4-4
(W) Whitworth: .778, 21-5/.544/1-3

Round 17
(AT) Ramapo: .667, 18-9/.567/8-5
(C) Wheaton: .704, 19-8/.574/4-5
(E) Brockport: .607, 17-10/.566/6-5
(GL) Wabash: .760, 19-6/.533/2-4
(MA) Johns Hopkins: .667, 18-9/.572/2-5
(NE) Eastern Connecticut: .741, 20-7/.557/2-5
(S) Guilford: .741, 20-7/.535/4-4
(W) Whitworth: .778, 21-5/.544/1-3

Round 18
(AT) Ramapo: .667, 18-9/.567/8-5
(C) UW-Stevens Point: .667, 18-9/.590/2-6
(E) Brockport: .607, 17-10/.566/6-5
(GL) Wabash: .760, 19-6/.533/2-4
(MA) Johns Hopkins: .667, 18-9/.572/2-5
(NE) Eastern Connecticut: .741, 20-7/.557/2-5
(S) Guilford: .741, 20-7/.535/4-4
(W) Whitworth: .778, 21-5/.544/1-3

Round 19
(AT) Ramapo: .667, 18-9/.567/8-5
(C) UW-Stevens Point: .667, 18-9/.590/2-6
(E) Brockport: .607, 17-10/.566/6-5
(GL) Wabash: .760, 19-6/.533/2-4
(MA) Johns Hopkins: .667, 18-9/.572/2-5
(NE) Eastern Connecticut: .741, 20-7/.557/2-5
(S) Washington & Lee: .704, 19-8/.544/5-5
(W) Whitworth: .778, 21-5/.544/1-3

Round 20
(AT) Montclair State: .630, 17-10/.547/4-7
(C) UW-Stevens Point: .667, 18-9/.590/2-6
(E) Brockport: .607, 17-10/.566/6-5
(GL) Wabash: .760, 19-6/.533/2-4
(MA) Johns Hopkins: .667, 18-9/.572/2-5
(NE) Eastern Connecticut: .741, 20-7/.557/2-5
(S) Washington & Lee: .704, 19-8/.544/5-5
(W) Whitworth: .778, 21-5/.544/1-3

[Titan Q]

Comparing projections between @D3Bubble, Matt Snyder, and me...

We agree on 15
- (C) Augustana: .889, 24-3/.547/8-3
- (NE) Hamilton: .885, 23-3/.553/4-3
- (NE) Williams: .769, 20-6/.598/6-5
- (C) UW-Oshkosh: .885, 23-3/.542/3-3
- (W) Loras: .778, 21-6/.587/2-2
- (GL) Marietta: .769, 20-6/.549/6-4
- (MA) York (Pa.): .750, 21-7/.561/6-4
- (W) St. Thomas: .846, 22-4/.532/4-1
- (GL) Wooster: .821, 23-5/.543/3-4
- (E) Rochester: .800, 20-5/.539/5-2
- (AT) New Jersey City: .741, 20-7/.551/6-6
- (NE) MIT: .846, 22-4/.555/1-0
- (NE) Middlebury: .708, 17-7/.600/4-5
- (MA) Salisbury: .704, 19-8/.575/4-7
- (C) Wheaton: .704, 19-8/.574/4-5

I have
http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1923351#msg1923351

#11 - (GL) Capital: .741, 20-7/.546/6-4
#12 - (E) Plattsburgh State: .760, 19-6/.531/6-6
#18 - (S) Guilford: .741, 20-7/.535/4-4
#19 - (AT) Ramapo: .667, 18-9/.567/8-5
#20 - (S) Washington & Lee: .704, 19-8/.544/5-5

@D3Bubble has
http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_men.html

#14 - (GL) Capital: .741, 20-7/.546/6-4
#17 - (E) Plattsburgh State: .760, 19-6/.531/6-6
#16 - (NE) Eastern Connecticut: .741, 20-7/.557/2-5
#19 - (NE) Gordon: .821, 23-5/.522/2-3
#20 - (S) Guilford: .741, 20-7/.535/4-4

Matt Snyder has
https://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-regional-rankings.html

#8 - (NE) Wesleyan: .640, 16-9/.614/5-7
#11 - (C) UW-Stevens Point: .667, 18-9/.590/2-6
#17 - (W) Whitworth: .778, 21-5/.544/1-3
#18 - (NE) Eastern Connecticut: .741, 20-7/.557/2-5
#20 - (NE) Gordon: .821, 23-5/.522/2-3

[kiko]

Great work on this; thank you for diving into the details.

Starting about Round 15, there is an interesting discussion to be had around how to weight record versus other criteria for a team that is on a D3 island.  Whitworth has a superior record to each of the teams you have selected over them in Rounds 15 through 20, but their SOS is a little weaker and their slate of vRRO games is not as robust.  You can make an argument that it is easier for Ramapo (to pick a random team and not trigger the usual NESCAC complaints that typically arise this time of year) to schedule vRROs than it is for a team in a region spanning three time zones and consisting of several islands.

I don't know if the Pirates belong in the tournament or not, but how "we won our games" for an island team is weighted versus "we played a tougher schedule" for someone who is on the mainland will have a big influence on how those latter rounds play out.

[Smitty Oom]

Plus, for a team like Ramapo, the Atlantic region is dominated by the NJAC so it becomes extremely easy to get the vRRO results, as they are built into the conference schedule. Where as the West is pretty balanced between 3 solid conferences with ARC, NWC and the MIAC, which makes it harder for other NWC teams crack the regional rankings. This is in addition to the points you noted, kiko.

Also would like to thank Titan Q for all the great work and compiling the data into one concise post. Excited for the Mock Selection Show tonight!

[With Age Comes Wisdom?]

Guys.. are you assuming that Hamilton wins the tournament ??  Either that or you can say that Amherst or Hamilton are the second highest lock??   

[With Age Comes Wisdom?]

Opps .. you did?!!

[mailsy]

 Bob,

Great work!! Though my squad had the worst year that I can remember I always appreciate the work you put in. Keeps me interested in the selections and the tourney that much more. +1k

[KnightSlappy]

Comparing projections between @D3Bubble, Matt Snyder, and me...

We agree on 15
- (C) Augustana: .889, 24-3/.547/8-3
- (NE) Amherst: .846, 22-4/.568/7-3  or Hamilton: .885, 23-3/.553/4-3
- (NE) Williams: .769, 20-6/.598/6-5
- (C) UW-Oshkosh: .885, 23-3/.542/3-3
- (W) Loras: .778, 21-6/.587/2-2
- (GL) Marietta: .769, 20-6/.549/6-4
- (MA) York (Pa.): .750, 21-7/.561/6-4
- (W) St. Thomas: .846, 22-4/.532/4-1
- (GL) Wooster: .821, 23-5/.543/3-4
- (E) Rochester: .800, 20-5/.539/5-2
- (AT) New Jersey City: .741, 20-7/.551/6-6
- (NE) MIT: .846, 22-4/.555/1-0
- (NE) Middlebury: .708, 17-7/.600/4-5
- (MA) Salisbury: .704, 19-8/.575/4-7
- (C) Wheaton: .704, 19-8/.574/4-5

I have
http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1923351#msg1923351

#11 - (GL) Capital: .741, 20-7/.546/6-4
#12 - (E) Plattsburgh State: .760, 19-6/.531/6-6
#18 - (S) Guilford: .741, 20-7/.535/4-4
#19 - (AT) Ramapo: .667, 18-9/.567/8-5
#20 - (S) Washington & Lee: .704, 19-8/.544/5-5

@D3Bubble has
http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_men.html

#14 - (GL) Capital: .741, 20-7/.546/6-4
#17 - (E) Plattsburgh State: .760, 19-6/.531/6-6
#16 - (NE) Eastern Connecticut: .741, 20-7/.557/2-5
#19 - (NE) Gordon: .821, 23-5/.522/2-3
#20 - (S) Guilford: .741, 20-7/.535/4-4

Matt Snyder has
https://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-regional-rankings.html

#8 - (NE) Wesleyan: .640, 16-9/.614/5-7
#11 - (C) UW-Stevens Point: .667, 18-9/.590/2-6
#17 - (W) Whitworth: .778, 21-5/.544/1-3
#18 - (NE) Eastern Connecticut: .741, 20-7/.557/2-5
#20 - (NE) Gordon: .821, 23-5/.522/2-3

Seems like Wesleyan will be eliminated on WP. Stevens Point is probably out on vRRO.

Removing those, I'd probably pick Capital as well and then choose between Plattsburgh St. and Ramapo.

[Titan Q]

Some thoughts on national seeding/hosting - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8886.msg1923405#msg1923405.

[Smitty Oom]

Whitworth, Ramapo, Plattsburgh (magicman) and other bubble teams are rooting for a RMC comeback in the ODAC championship right now. Guilford is a bubble team themselves and are currently up 8 with 70 seconds to play.

[deiscanton]

Looks like Drew is done-- no Pool C bid for the Rangers.

Drew may have to settle for a #1 seed in the ECAC tourney instead.

[Titan Q]

After the ODAC and SCAC finals...

Data Sources
http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_men.html

https://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-regional-rankings.html

No-Brainers
1. (C) Augustana: .889, 24-3/.547/8-3
2. (S) Randolph-Macon: .893, 25-3/.534/6-3
3. (NE) Hamilton: .885, 23-3/.553/4-3
4. (NE) Williams: .769, 20-6/.598/6-5
5. (C) UW-Oshkosh: .885, 23-3/.542/3-3
6. (W) Loras: .778, 21-6/.587/2-2
7. (GL) Marietta: .769, 20-6/.549/6-4
8. (MA) York (Pa.): .750, 21-7/.561/6-4
9. (W) St. Thomas: .846, 22-4/.532/4-1
10. (GL) Wooster: .821, 23-5/.543/3-4
11. (E) Rochester: .800, 20-5/.539/5-2

Round 12
(AT) New Jersey City: .741, 20-7/.551/6-6
(C) Wheaton: .704, 19-8/.574/4-5
(E) Plattsburgh State: .760, 19-6/.531/6-6
(GL) Capital: .741, 20-7/.546/6-4
(MA) Salisbury: .704, 19-8/.575/4-7
(NE) MIT: .846, 22-4/.555/1-0
(S) Centre: .808, 21-5/.530/1-1
(W) Whitworth: .778, 21-5/.544/1-3

Round 13
(AT) New Jersey City: .741, 20-7/.551/6-6
(C) Wheaton: .704, 19-8/.574/4-5
(E) Plattsburgh State: .760, 19-6/.531/6-6
(GL) Mount Union: .786, 22-6/.513/5-4
(MA) Salisbury: .704, 19-8/.575/4-7
(NE) MIT: .846, 22-4/.555/1-0
(S) Centre: .808, 21-5/.530/1-1
(W) Whitworth: .778, 21-5/.544/1-3

Round 14
(AT) New Jersey City: .741, 20-7/.551/6-6
(C) Wheaton: .704, 19-8/.574/4-5
(E) Plattsburgh State: .760, 19-6/.531/6-6
(GL) Mount Union: .786, 22-6/.513/5-4
(MA) Salisbury: .704, 19-8/.575/4-7
(NE) MIT: .846, 22-4/.555/1-0
(S) Centre: .808, 21-5/.530/1-1
(W) Whitworth: .778, 21-5/.544/1-3

Round 15
(AT) Ramapo: .667, 18-9/.567/8-5
(C) Wheaton: .704, 19-8/.574/4-5
(E) Brockport: .607, 17-10/.566/6-5
(GL) Mount Union: .786, 22-6/.513/5-4
(MA) Salisbury: .704, 19-8/.575/4-7
(NE) MIT: .846, 22-4/.555/1-0
(S) Centre: .808, 21-5/.530/1-1
(W) Whitworth: .778, 21-5/.544/1-3

Round 16
(AT) Ramapo: .667, 18-9/.567/8-5
(C) Wheaton: .704, 19-8/.574/4-5
(E) Brockport: .607, 17-10/.566/6-5
(GL) Mount Union: .786, 22-6/.513/5-4
(MA) Salisbury: .704, 19-8/.575/4-7
(NE) Middlebury: .708, 17-7/.600/4-5
(S) Centre: .808, 21-5/.530/1-1
(W) Whitworth: .778, 21-5/.544/1-3

Round 17
(AT) Ramapo: .667, 18-9/.567/8-5
(C) Wheaton: .704, 19-8/.574/4-5
(E) Brockport: .607, 17-10/.566/6-5
(GL) Mount Union: .786, 22-6/.513/5-4
(MA) Salisbury: .704, 19-8/.575/4-7
(NE) Eastern Connecticut: .741, 20-7/.557/2-5
(S) Centre: .808, 21-5/.530/1-1
(W) Whitworth: .778, 21-5/.544/1-3

Round 18
(AT) Ramapo: .667, 18-9/.567/8-5
(C) Wheaton: .704, 19-8/.574/4-5
(E) Brockport: .607, 17-10/.566/6-5
(GL) Mount Union: .786, 22-6/.513/5-4
(MA) Johns Hopkins: .667, 18-9/.572/2-5
(NE) Eastern Connecticut: .741, 20-7/.557/2-5
(S) Centre: .808, 21-5/.530/1-1
(W) Whitworth: .778, 21-5/.544/1-3

Round 19
(AT) Ramapo: .667, 18-9/.567/8-5
(C) UW-Stevens Point: .667, 18-9/.590/2-6
(E) Brockport: .607, 17-10/.566/6-5
(GL) Mount Union: .786, 22-6/.513/5-4
(MA) Johns Hopkins: .667, 18-9/.572/2-5
(NE) Eastern Connecticut: .741, 20-7/.557/2-5
(S) Centre: .808, 21-5/.530/1-1
(W) Whitworth: .778, 21-5/.544/1-3

Round 20
(AT) Montclair State: .630, 17-10/.547/4-7
(C) UW-Stevens Point: .667, 18-9/.590/2-6
(E) Brockport: .607, 17-10/.566/6-5
(GL) Mount Union: .786, 22-6/.513/5-4
(MA) Johns Hopkins: .667, 18-9/.572/2-5
(NE) Eastern Connecticut: .741, 20-7/.557/2-5
(S) Centre: .808, 21-5/.530/1-1
(W) Whitworth: .778, 21-5/.544/1-3

[Titan Q]

You aren't staying for the CCIW championship game?

American flight #5938, 7:20am today MLI to DFW -  cancelled.

Veteran traveler move.