Great Lakes Region

[sac]

Nevermind.  Both the Bethany and Thiel websites confirm that it is Thiel @ Bethany.

I do these things pretty quickly, I probably forgot which team page I was on...........and then misread it completely.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Nevermind.  Both the Bethany and Thiel websites confirm that it is Thiel @ Bethany.

I do these things pretty quickly, I probably forgot which team page I was on...........and then misread it completely.

I wouldn't have worried about it, but I have that game posted for this week's slate on the National Pick Em Board!  I was worried I had it backwards.

[ScotsFan]

I'm leaving  Albion and Adrian in the mix for now, though the loser of their head-to-head is probably done for Pool C.  JCU I'm leaving in because they have a favorable schedule until their next meeting with Marietta in the last week of the season.

You're still holding out hope that Adrian and Albion have a shot at a Pool C?  I don't think either has a chance as they already have 4 and 5 in-region losses respectively.  Usually 5 losses is the number you don't want to go past.  Personally, I just don't see either of them stacking up too well against the other teams in the region ahead of them fighting for pool C's.

[sac]

I'm leaving  Albion and Adrian in the mix for now, though the loser of their head-to-head is probably done for Pool C.  JCU I'm leaving in because they have a favorable schedule until their next meeting with Marietta in the last week of the season.

You're still holding out hope that Adrian and Albion have a shot at a Pool C?  I don't think either has a chance as they already have 4 and 5 in-region losses respectively.  Usually 5 losses is the number you don't want to go past.  Personally, I just don't see either of them stacking up too well against the other teams in the region ahead of them fighting for pool C's.

Usually its 6 actually.   Albion has 3 games this week they can win, Adrian has 2 they can win.......their in-region record % would deserve to be listed.  I'm just saving myself some work by keeping them in the ranking.  In past years I think I used to rank anybody with a record over .500 in-region until later in the year.


In reality no I don't think either has a great shot at Pool C they would both have to win out and with the parity in the MIAA I just can't see that happening.  If I ranked only the teams I thought had a great shot it would be a very short list.  This has always been designed to just give a snapshot of what's going on in the region.

I know you didn't say it, but my keeping Albion and Adrian in the picture has nothing to do with their conference affiliation being in line with mine.

[ScotsFan]

Gotcha.  I kind of felt the same way in that the only way I see Albion or Adrian getting a Pool C is to win out until the conference tournament and that seems like a bit of a stretch to me, but it could happen... 

[KnightSlappy]

Rankings are out:

1. Wooster
2. Hope
3. Wabash
4. Marietta
5. Wittenberg
6. Penn State-Behrend

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Full List of First Regional Rankings: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2011/02/02/ncaas-mens-regional-rankings/

[sac]

There was a discussion about Thiel being left out in favor of Witt........I was reminded looking at this page that Thiel lost a game last week.

Perhaps that loss gave Witt the nod in this week's poll.

[sac]

Offensive and defensive efficiency rating for the teams above through Sunday's games.

Top 5 OFFENSE
1. Wooster          118.5
2. John Carroll     114.9
2. Hope               114.9
4. Marietta           112.9
5. PSU-Behrend   112.6


Top 5 DEFENSE
1. Wabash            83.0*
2. Adrian               91.0
3. Wittenberg       92.0
4. Wooster            92.2
5. Thiel                  92.6

* I looked hard in the Wabash stats to find an error somewhere, but came up with nothing.  For D3 I think this is an insanely low number, a good chance it would be the lowest in D3.


OVERALL  (200-defense + offense)
1. Wooster          226.3
2. Wabash          223.0
3. PSU-Behrend   220.6
4. Marietta           215.4
5. Hope               212.3
6. Bethany          210.6
7. John Carroll     210.4
8. Capital            209.7
9. Albion              209.1
10. Thiel                207.8
11. Wittenberg    207.6
12. Calvin           204.7
13. Adrian           203


If any of you remember Barry Robinson's old Columbus Multimedia Poll, his efficiency calculations were very similar to these.

A good thing to keep in mind is these are efficiency values vs the schedule each team has played, and as we know, each team has not played the same strength of schedule. 

Efficiency Update

Top 5 OFFENSE
1. Wooster          119.7
2. Hope               114.3
3. John Carroll     113.9
4. PSU-Behrend   112.6
5. Wittenberg      109.5


Top 5 DEFENSE
1. Wabash            86.1
2. Thiel                  90.3
3. PSU-Behrend     91.2
4. Wooster            91.5
5. Adrian               91.6


OVERALL  (200-defense + offense)
1. Wooster           228.2
2. PSU-Behrend    221.4
3. Wabash            220.1
4. Bethany            213.3
5. Marietta           212.8
6. Hope                212.0
7. Wittenberg     210.1
8. Capital              209.2
9. Thiel                209.1
10. Calvin              208.7
11. John Carroll      208.4
12. Adrian             205.6
13. Albion                201.7
14. Thomas More  197.3

--I kind of like how this is shaking out, I think it gives a pretty accurate look at things.......although my confidence in the PrAC schools and AMCC schools is kind of low.  Given the histories of play from those conferences, I think its likely their EFF's are a touch high because of their schedules.  I'll need a deeper look into massey.com to sort that out, just haven't had time yet.

--I added Thomas More this week, and by the looks of things they probably won't factor in this much longer.

[sac]

As promised a look at massey reveals the schedules don't look good for our PrAC and AMCC friends.


PSU-Behrend  #374
Thiel                #242
Bethany          #255


For Behrend its a big yikes!.......and its actually a little softer going forward.  There are only 411 teams in D3 rated by massey, that is one bad schedule.

Compare these to some other GL teams

Wooster     #113
Wittenberg  #132
Wabash       #75
Marietta      #142
Capital       #118
Hope          #47
Calvin          #21

[sac]

Ohio Northern beats Capital tonight for their 6th loss.  Pool C chances officially done.

Albion and Adrian both take losses in the MIAA, not officially for Adrian but most likely done, Albion with 6 losses now done.

Wabash loses to Denison, this puts Wabash in bubble territory with Witt and Wooster still to come.

[sac]

Thiel 66 Bethany 59 in the big Presidents showdown.

[WAlum]

Ohio Northern beats Capital tonight for their 6th loss.  Pool C chances officially done.

Albion and Adrian both take losses in the MIAA, not officially for Adrian but most likely done, Albion with 6 losses now done.

Wabash loses to Denison, this puts Wabash in bubble territory with Witt and Wooster still to come.

Capital took a huge hit with the loss to ONU. Crusaders will need to win the OAC tournament.  I think they will.
Albion and Adrian are out.  Both will lose at least 2 more including the MIAA tournament.
Wabash needs to beat Witt and/or Wooster.  They are currently 4th in the NCAC and would meet the Scots in the tournament semi-finals if the standings hold. The season seems to be crumbling apart for the 'bash.

[wally_wabash]

The season seems to be crumbling apart for the 'bash.

I think it's still ok.  Wabash just got done playing a stretch of six out of seven games on the road.  I know sometimes teams can play a bunch of road games in the early part of the season (Wabash did this last year, Witt did it this year), but in league play six out of seven on the road doesn't really happen.  Let's keep some perspective...Wabash lost by a single point at Witt (that's a gym Wabash has only won in one time since joining the NCAC), lost to OWU on Tim Brady's career night, and lost to Denison when Jim Leffew went bonkers for about ten seconds.  No need to panic.  Wabash certainly didn't, stayed the course, and got a good win this afternoon. 

[sac]

Wabash beat Wooster, though strangely I have yet to see a score posted.

This win is very big for Wabash's 'C' chances, it at least keeps them in the game.  For Regional rankings I don't think Wooster loses the top spot to Hope, it should remain  Wooster, Hope, Wabash.......although its conceivable Wabash moves ahead of Hope with the game vs ranked teams thing.

Albion beat Adrian which ended up having zero influence on pool C as both teams lost in midweek.

Calvin lost to Olivet which means the MIAA has no serious 2nd team for Pool C.  The only viable Pool C team now would be Hope if they lost the MIAA tournament.