2015 Mid Atlantic Region

[backyarddawg]

Yes they did LGOTB but would say only easy game on schedule.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Messiah applying some serious pressure on Lycoming now. 10 minutes left and Lycoming barely holding on now

Been off the grid. How bout these games?!?!? Mr. Right or FW did you watch the Lycoming vs Messiah game? It was a good one and had one of the crazier endings I have seen in quite some time. Fairly even game similar to the first meeting between the two. Messiah with more of the possession as expected. Probably around 60/40 possession. Shots 12-6 to Messiah which was also expected after the Warriors took the early lead. Corner kicks and shots on goal were both even. Messiah never looked dangerous until the final 10 minutes when they had to start to press more. I have been very impressed with Lycoming's defense all year and for them to get 2 shut outs against Messiah is a testament to how tough they are. Lycoming had 2 or 3 other dangerous chances that could have added to the lead but the keeper made the stops. The last 10 minutes was a frenzy including the last 45 seconds. Messiah is still wondering how the ball didn't go in the net in that last sequence as one of the chances was saved and skimmed off the cross bar. Overall a very good game to watch. Will be interested to see if Messiah sneaks in the tournament. Personally I do not think they will but we will find out Monday.

Haverford, F&M, Scranton, Lycoming, Cabrini, Eastern and most likely Etown and Dickinson will be dancing. Messiah and Hopkins I think are on the wrong side of the bubble. 

[Madared]

Regarding Lyco's defense, what makes it all that more impressive is they lost last year's All-American sophomore center back, Bill Kerr, as he transferred to UMBC.

A gap that big can be hard to fill, but Gibboney just reloaded and has that back line playing well.

[D3soccerwatcher]

Yes - I'd say Messiah had at least 60% of the possession.  But possession doesn't necessarily win soccer games.  The oddest thing for me about this game was the extremely high number of throw-ins.  It just seemed like the ball was out-of-bounds all the time (10 year old turf combined with a very narrow field).  Combine that with the high number of total fouls (38 in all by the scorers count - about 10 higher than that by my count) and this game just seemed to have no flow at all.  Lycoming certainly knew how to play on this field.  But bottom line - after 180 mins across two games - Lycoming scored 3 goals (2-0, 1-0) and Messiah scored none.  So Lycoming moves on - I wish them the best of luck.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Yes - I'd say Messiah had at least 60% of the possession.  But possession doesn't necessarily win soccer games.  The oddest thing for me about this game was the extremely high number of throw-ins.  It just seemed like the ball was out-of-bounds all the time (10 year old turf combined with a very narrow field).  Combine that with the high number of total fouls (38 in all by the scorers count - about 10 higher than that by my count) and this game just seemed to have no flow at all.  Lycoming certainly knew how to play on this field.  But bottom line - after 180 mins across two games - Lycoming scored 3 goals (2-0, 1-0) and Messiah scored none.  So Lycoming moves on - I wish them the best of luck.

+K D3SW. That's definitely an accurate representation of the game. The field is narrow but the same can hold true if traveling to Messiah where they hold a good home-field advantage. A big grass field that allows them to spread the ball out and create more gaps and space which plays right into their style. Anyone from the Commonwealth traveling to Messiah is already at a disadvantage as I do not think anybody else has grass besides Lebanon Valley. Lycoming, Alvernia, Albright, Arcadia, Stevenson, Hood, and Widener all have turf fields.

So back to my original thought...Lycoming earned the home-field advantage and they should know how to play their considering it's their home field just like Messiah tends to dominate at Shoemaker Field. I feel that a team should always play their best at home and great teams will also take care of business on the road. If you look at Lycoming over the past 3 years, since Gibboney has taken over, they have gone 26-4-1 at home which includes a 20-1 record in the past 2 seasons. Traveling to Lycoming is not an easy task. They have also taken care of business on the road accruing a 16-7-8 record over that 3 year span including an undefeated 6-0-2 away record this year. One of the surprising stats that jumps out to me this year is Messiah's record away from Shoemaker Field. In the 2 years prior to this season the Falcons went 16-1-1 on the road and this doesn't include neutral site games(which would improve the record even more). But this year the Falcons are a mediocre 4-4-0 away from home. Their home field advantage is still relevant as they went 9-1-1 at home this season. The road record is something that the Falcons need to focus on next year if they want to make the NCAA tournament and improve their overall winning percentage.

I personally think Messiah still has a chance at a bid but it is highly unlikely they will make it. If the committee snubs the great lakes region then Messiah has a shot. I do not think they get in this year and honestly I think they missed out by one game. If they would have won any of the 3 non-conference games they lost I think they are in the tournament. It would have put them at 15-4-1, SOS around .590(very strong), 2-4-1 RvR (nicer looking than 1-5-1), and a slight bump in their winning percentage. I think it would have been very hard to keep a 15-4-1 Messiah team out of the tournament with a strong SOS and 2 wins vs ranked. A win verse Rowan, CMU, or Etown would have solidified their place in the tournament. It's a cruel game and unfortunate that Messiah will not be in the big dance this year as they are always fun to watch and follow come November and December. Also their fan base travels well which is great for the tournament (and the NCAA $$$). But for my own sake I hope the Mid-Atlantic gets 4 at-large bids but it is looking like only 3 (or even 2) at this point.     

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Another example is Eastern with a 5-1-1 home record and a great 10-1-0 away record. In the past 2 season the Eagles have gone 17-3 on the road and 13-3-1 at home. The only thing that has tripped them up the past 2 season has been closing the deal in playoffs and more specifically beating Kings. A shout-out to the Eagles as they will be dancing...finally. 

[Mr.Right]

Messiah has no chance folks. They did it to themselves against Lycoming TWICE and Rowan, CMU

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Messiah has no chance folks. They did it to themselves against Lycoming TWICE and Rowan, CMU

Do you think it's accurate to say they would have been in if they would have swapped one of the losses to Etown, CMU, or Rowan for a win they would probably be in? It's interesting how much 1 game or different outcome could have changed their season. And yes I agree that they will not get in but it is Messiah we are talking about so they need to be discussed! 

[Ryan Harmanis]

Messiah has no chance folks. They did it to themselves against Lycoming TWICE and Rowan, CMU

Do you think it's accurate to say they would have been in if they would have swapped one of the losses to Etown, CMU, or Rowan for a win they would probably be in?

Probably.  After running all of the numbers I was surprised that Messiah was pretty competitive, with a solid winning percentage and a very good SOS.  The RvR just kills them.  The other issue is they'd probably still be below ETown because of head-to-head, but I'd probably have had Messiah on the right side of the bubble with another ranked win.  And if they'd beaten CMU then CMU may have been out altogether as well.

[RetiredD3Fan]

Messiah has no chance folks. They did it to themselves against Lycoming TWICE and Rowan, CMU

Do you think it's accurate to say they would have been in if they would have swapped one of the losses to Etown, CMU, or Rowan for a win they would probably be in?

Probably.  After running all of the numbers I was surprised that Messiah was pretty competitive, with a solid winning percentage and a very good SOS.  The RvR just kills them.  The other issue is they'd probably still be below ETown because of head-to-head, but I'd probably have had Messiah on the right side of the bubble with another ranked win.  And if they'd beaten CMU then CMU may have been out altogether as well.

I agree with all of that reasoning, and although I am not sure how it happened, there is also the fact that in the final regional poll JHU was ranked above Messiah.  With both of those teams winning at home and losing on the road this week, I do not see how Messiah would then leapfrog JHU.  But again, the committee always does what the committee wants to do and they have all kinds of factors to choose from to explain anomalies.  Past history not being one of the stated criteria, one would hope that Messiah is not chosen over a school without a storied soccer history that this year is more deserving. 

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Mid-Atlantic Tournament Teams (7):
Haverford
Dickinson
Franklin and Marshall
Lycoming
Eastern
Scranton
Cabrini

Is Morrisville St in this region? Is it sad that I am unsure? If they are, which I think they are, then it would be 8 teams representing this region.

Easiest road to KC: Probably Haverford

Toughest road to KC: F&M

Toughest first round game: Eastern vs Camden

Easiest first round game: Cabrini vs Morrisville St.

Toughest pod: Lycoming, J&W(RI), Rowan, Dickinson

Easiest pod: Scranton, Mass-Boston, Sage, SLU

Biggest Snub: Etown

Keep in mind that there really are no easy games at this point...but this is just for good conversation 

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

http://www.nscaa.com/rankings/4960

NSCAA Final Regular Season Poll: Nov. 10, 2015

1. Fords
2. Lycoming
3. Dickinson
4. Etown
5. F&M
6. Eastern
7. Messiah
8. Hopkins
9. Cabrini
10. Scranton

[lastguyoffthebench]

Yes, Morrisville St is in the Mid-Atlantic...

Lycoming vs Johnson&Wales is the easiest first round game.

Scranton and MA-Boston has OT all over it...

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Yes, Morrisville St is in the Mid-Atlantic...

Lycoming vs Johnson&Wales is the easiest first round game.

Scranton and MA-Boston has OT all over it...

Ehhh I don't agree with Lyco vs JW as easiest. Cabrini and Morrisville are the winners from arguably 2 of the worst conferences in the country and they face each other. Cabrini SOS .483 and MSU .502. Cabrini hasn't played a ranked team all year and their toughest game was a 1-0 OT loss to Camden. MSU toughest games were a 2-0 loss to Oneonta, 5-1 loss to Cortland St, and a 0-0 tie at Rochester. So these 2 teams are the least dangerous coming out of the Mid-Atlantic region which is why I think them being matched up makes it the easiest game. Both teams have to love knowing that they at least have a chance to advance one round where as if they were matched up against anybody else besides themselves they most likely would have a slim chance to move on. Their reward is #1 Amherst...but at least one of them gets a shot at the second round. Also, this is J&W third straight NCAA tournament appearance and they only lost 1-0 to F&M last season in the first round. I don't think Lycoming, or anyone for that matter, should under estimate J&W.

Now keep in mind J&W SOS is .488 and they are 0-1-0 RvR compared to Lycoming .550 and 2-1-0 RvR. I am not saying J&W is a high caliber team, but they aren't a pushover this year.

[lastguyoffthebench]

I interpreted easiest first round game as "biggest margin of victory"