Guessing the NSCAA rankings will look something like this:
1) Emory - loss to Chicago, but the CNU draw should still be enough to keep them at #1. UAA punishment soon cometh...
2) CNU -
3) Rutgers-Newark - Kean is going to draw either Newark or MSU this week...
4) MSU - moves up after a 2-0 week. Slowly getting in stride for the late NJAC surge. Tough week with Kean and Camden on the schedule.
5) Salisbury - Win over Roanoke keeps them ahead (could see them still sitting at 4th but MSU should bump them).
6) Roanoke
7) Birmingham Southern
8) Covenant - Strong early win before Newark got in gear.
9) Centre - game vs. Covenant was PPD early in year, but only 2 losses were to Kenyon and Thomas More (Tied OWU and Emory)
10) NC Wesleyan - bad result vs Covenant... could we see PSU Harrisburg (York W and Salis W) or Lynchburg in this 10th slot?
RV) Rowan, Lynchburg, Rutgers-Camden, PSU Harrisburg, Berry, VWU, W&L, Stockton.
CAC
York still struggling. St. Mary's with a big game vs CNU tomorrow and what seems like a free throw for Salisbury vs Marymount.
NJAC
Rutgers-Newark scores in the 107th minute to beat WPU. MSU keeps rolling, but looks like Kean gave them a fight. Ramapo beats the struggling Gothic Knights of NJCU. Rutgers-Camden will try to clinch a playoff birth vs TCNJ tomorrow at 7pm; Rowan at Stockton tomorrow at 8pm.
ODAC
Lynchburg gets a huge win over VA Wesleyan
1) Emory
2) CNU
3) Rutgers-Newark
4) MSU
5) Salisbury
6) Noke
7) Lynchburg or Covenant
Rutgers-Newark remaining 4 games:
10/18 vs. Kean * • 7:30 PM LS V
10/21 vs. Stevens • 7:30 PM
10/25 at Rutgers-Camden * • 1:00 PM
10/29 vs. Montclair State * • 7:30 PM
NJAC semi vs either MSU-RUC-Rowan-Kean-Stockton
NCAA will have a great time evaluating this region...
After this week of:
Emory 2 losses, CNU 1 loss, Rutgers-Newark 1 loss. Will teams like Salisbury and Roanoke benefit?
CNU
MSU
RU-N
Emory
Salisbury
Roanoke
Kean or Lynchburg
-------------------------
RU-C and York with the strong schedules, but are on the verge of barely qualifying for ECAC Tournaments...
I would think that Methodist (10-2-1) would be in the mix for the final couple spots.
I was looking at Methodist, but last night was just a quick evaluation. Methodist tie vs CNU and win over Covenenant helps, but the the SOS of 171 (Massey) and overall SOS of 241 certainly doesn't help (Averett (4-9-1), LaGrange (1-13-1) Huntingdon (2-8-4), Ferrum (4-10-2). They also lost to @ Greensboro and @ NCW.
Will be interesting to see how NCAA region stacks up against the Massey data (below). Who do you think will be the top seed, FW? I think 1-3 is tough to sort out (let the NCAA use their formula, but I think MSU is the best in the region), 5-6 Salisbury-Roanoke are locked in (Salisbury also beat Noke earlier in year). 7th slot could be 1 of 6 teams.
WP SOS SOS (including future games)
13) MSU .813 49 52
18) RU-N .833 86 59
22) Emory .767 29 25
26) CNU .794 60 57
34) Salisbury .821 101 79
49) Roanoke .786 151 138
51) Methodist .808 173 241
-------------------------------------------------------
62) Lynchburg .714 98 119
64) Kean .656 96 83
66) RU-C .562 22 23
70) Covenant .667 94 121
75) Mary Wash .533 31 51
82) Birm South .792 177 180
83) Centre .625 74 85
Big game for Lynchburg tonight, hosting Roanoke. ODAC seeding and NCAA regional placement implications. Lynchburg is probably on the outside looking in, but a win will bolster their chances. Lynchburg hasn't lost to Noke since 2008...
Noke wins 1-0. Big rivalry game this Saturday for Roanoke vs W&L. Should be a good one.
Noke getting shunned for the first rankings...
1. Emory
2. CNU
3. MSU
4. RU-N
5. Salisbury
6. Covenant
7. Centre
Outside looking in assumptions... Roanoke, Birmingham Southern, Methodist, Kean
Wow! Compare that to NSCAA:
1. Christopher Newport University
2 Salisbury University
3 Roanoke College
4 Emory University
5 Montclair State University
6 Rutgers University-Newark
7 Birmingham-Southern College
What's used for NCAA tournament seeding, hosting, etc.?
Quote from: NokeAlum15 on October 22, 2014, 04:09:52 PM
Wow! Compare that to NSCAA:
1. Christopher Newport University
2 Salisbury University
3 Roanoke College
4 Emory University
5 Montclair State University
6 Rutgers University-Newark
7 Birmingham-Southern College
What's used for NCAA tournament seeding, hosting, etc.?
The Regional Rankings are used. All other polls are just for fun...
The weakness of the bottom-half of the ODAC is going to hurt Roanoke. The way these rankings are formulated, a win will drop them in the rankings. Only way I see us making the tourney is by winning the ODAC tournament. An at large seems impossible if the NCAA rankings are the only ones taken into account.
Quote from: NokeAlum15 on October 23, 2014, 09:02:16 AM
The weakness of the bottom-half of the ODAC is going to hurt Roanoke. The way these rankings are formulated, a win will drop them in the rankings. Only way I see us making the tourney is by winning the ODAC tournament. An at large seems impossible if the NCAA rankings are the only ones taken into account.
Win and you're in. That's the only guarantee. The ODAC isn't a power soccer conference right now so there isn't going to be a reputation affect. That limits the possibility of being a "second chance" school.
Fairly entertaining Salisbury-CNU draw ... 50 fouls with 32 on CNU. Caps had a 16-6 edge in shots and probably thought they could have had a late PK and had the best chances in the OTs. Two tournament quality teams. Jalon Brown is a nice player but Salisbury, especially hard-nosed No. 6, did a solid job on him for most of the game.
Noke clinches the regular season ODAC championship and the #1 seed. Finish up at home vs Guilford on Tuesday night.
Don't expect Noke to rest starters unless the game gets out of hand.
CNU has gone from just about 6th in the nation to 6th in the CAC... Still a two bid league
After Centre drops one to Millsaps, the SAA is looking like a one bid league with the AQ up for grabs.
NJAC is still wide open... Newark could be in some trouble if they fail to get a bye and lose to Camden in the semis. My guess is whichever two make the final, make the tourney.
ODAC still a race between noke. Vs vwu or Lynchburg in the final. W&L could challenge noke in the conf semi... Would that upset make the ODAC a two bid league? I just can't see it....
Emory controls its own fate this weekend, but I can't see a 6th place UAA team locking in a bid specifically because they have fewer blemishes in a region thats beat up
USAC looks to be a one bid league... Covenant with the edge, but I think gboro takes it
1. Emory
2. MSU
3. Salisbury St
4. CNU
5. Covenant
6. Rutgers-Newark
7. Roanoke.
---------------------
8. Centre
8. Rutgers-Camden
Its been mentioned that teams don't drop far once in.. Can MSU jump idle Emory? Don't see it just yet, but Emory has three regionally ranked opponents left.... Does Salisbury jump CNU although both lost to PSU and both tied York. CNU better SOS and Salisbury with the better win percentage... They are 1 in CAC vs CNU 6th
Rankings out...
South Atlantic
1. Emory 11-3-1 11-3-1
2. Montclair State 15-3-0 15-3-0
3. Salisbury 10-1-5 11-1-5
4. Christopher Newport 12-3-4 12-3-4
5. Covenant 11-4-2 11-4-2
6. Rutgers-Newark 14-4-0 14-4-0
7. Centre 7-3-5 7-3-5
Excellent predictions Last Guy for the rankings
USA South semis are set as NC Wesleyan scores late equalizer and wins in ot. Covenant still making a case for an at large bid with two wins over Piedmont, but will most likely have to win the AQ. Methodist stumbles vs Maryville.
11/7
Greensboro v. Maryville
Covenant v. NC Wesleyan
11/8 Final
Should see some movement in regional rankings. We may get to see a better understanding of the committee thought process as Rutgers-Newark beats MSU this week. Does Covenants early win over Newark hold strong and simply shift MSU behind both?
Assuming an Emory non win tomorrow, still think they benefit from W of Rochester and MSU loss.
1. Emory
2. Salisbury
3. CNU
4. MSU
5. RUN
6. Covenant
7. Centre
----------------------
8. Roanoke
8. Rutgers-Camden
You'd be hard pressed to find a tougher postseason opener anywhere in the country than Salisbury got. CNU gave them a heckuva game in Md. not long ago in a 1-all result.
Disappointed that FSU fell at home. They would have given PSU-H a better game in the second round.
ODAC Semis for tomorrow:
#1 Roanoke vs #5 W&L 7pm
#2 Lynchburg vs #3 VA Wes 7pm
NJAC Semis: 11/4
Kean @ MSU 7:00
RU-C @ RU-N 7:30
ODAC Semis: 11/4
VWU @ L'burg 7:00
W&L @ Noke 7:00
CAC Semis: 11/5
CNU @ Salisbury TBA
St. Mary's @ PSU-H 6:00
USA South: 11/7
Greensboro v. Maryville
Covenant v. NC Wesleyan
FINAL: 11/8
SAA:
Millsaps v. Hendrix
Birm-Sou v. Oglethopre
Centre v. Sewanee
Rhodes v. Berry
lastguy, how about a little preview analysis of Camden vs Newark?
And looking forward to CNU @ Salisbury which has the look and feel of a NCAA sweet 16 game.
Does Roanoke have to win ODAC tournament to get a bid?
Roanoke has to win the ODAC to get a bid. Just last year, Randolph was 17-1-1 heading into the ODAC final (with no games vs regionally ranked opponents) vs VWU and didn't get Pool C at 17-2-1. Roanoke's 0-1-1 record vs ranked opponents won't be good enough in terms of the small fish in a big pond.
Leaning on CNU to win this game.
From the looks of the box score vs WPU, it didn't look like Camden should have come out victorious. I watched the Camden-Stockton livefeed and Stockton just sat in after the red card early in the 2nd half. My guess is that they were aware of Rowan being down 2-0 and wanted to ensure a post-season bid. Even before the red card it looked like they were playing a 4-5---------------1.
Rutgers-Camden vs Rutgers-Newark has been a close rivalry, even though Camden holds a 8-1-1 record since 2007 (5-1 since 20011). It was Rutgers-Newark who lost a 3-1 lead with less than 15 to go at home vs Camden last year. It was Newark who handed Camden 1 of its 2 losses in 2012. Every time I have seen Camden this year (6 times or so), they played a different lineup and I never knew which GK was going to be between the pipes (due to injuries I presume). I was at the Newark-Camden game this year and Camden outplayed them and created more quality chances up until the red card. While down a man, Camden was able to counter a few times, hit the woodwork, miss a breakaway, get taken down outside the box for a free kick and again inside the box for a non call. It was a nerve-wracking last 20 min as Newark began getting more numbers forward, but no real quality chances were created. I expect this game to possession/counter-attack that turns into a high scoring affair ending in the 2nd OT.
I hear you on Roanoke but still don't quite understand. The ODAC seems to have a lot of very solid to good teams (if not great), and I know the soccer is big down in that region. Seems like some of those games between Roanoke, Lynchburg, VA Wesleyan, etc are pretty big affairs with impressive turnouts.
What I don't see is a lot of publicity or interest from that area on this website. Is there something to that? We get a ton of New England focus, followed by the Messiah/PA and Jersey areas, with a lot of North (GAC, Carleton, UWs, Loras, etc) interest, and some Ohio (OWU, Ohio Northern, more recently Kenyon) to Chicago (Wheaton, North Park) to Michigan (Calvin, Hope).
Maybe Randolph last year and Roanoke this year don't get much in the way of records vs ranked teams because that area has a a harder time getting ranked? I have no idea, but just wondering.
Critical mass. You need a few people to do more than shout into an empty hole. NokeAlum and I are about it for ODAC posters these days. Doesn't make for much of a conversation. We've got maybe 10 regular football posters, about half of which are H-SC guys. The basketball boards do real well, but the conference is a credible power. Same with lacrosse. The soccer teams are good, but they aren't typically a national factor. I would like to see it pick up, I spend more time posting on the national team than about ODAC soccer, but unless we pull a few more posters there just isn't too much to say.
I think the problem with the ODAC is this quality of the bottom half of the league. It's down right terrible. So while Roanoke, Va Wes, Lynchburg are always a good side, they get punished for having to play Emory and Henry, Shenandoah, Bridgewater, etc.
That's why your OOC regional games are so important. Roanoke had their chance vs Salisbury and didn't pull out a W.
Makes makes me a little curious that the USA conference, while usually a stacked conference, a lot of their conference games are not in-region games. So they are not punished like the teams in the ODAC for conference losses.
Quote from: NokeAlum15 on November 03, 2014, 02:56:12 PMMakes makes me a little curious that the USA conference, while usually a stacked conference, a lot of their conference games are not in-region games. So they are not punished like the teams in the ODAC for conference losses.
I assume you meant the UAA.
Either way, there's two points to make:
(1) Conference games have always been considered in-region no matter what. That is, in multi-region conferences like the UAA, games against conference members that don't meet any of the in-region criteria have still always been counted as in-region.
(2) Starting last year (2013) there is no distinction between in-region and out-of-region in the ranking and at-large selection criteria. Now the only distinction made in the primary and secondary criteria is between D-III opposition (primiary) and non-D-III opposition (secondary). In-region only matter in terms of meeting the requiremnt of playing 75% of your schedule in-region, and with the mileage criteria havng been revised from 200 mi. to 500 mi. this year, combined with the other criteria for classifying a game as in-region, that's so easy to meet as long as you're not criss-crossing the country several times during the season.
As to the ODAC in general, the conference is definitely in a down cycle. I still think it was horribly wrong for Randolph not to have been invited to the NCAA tournament last year, but there just doesn't seem to be Top 25 level soccer being played on a consistent basis by the top teams in the conference in the past several years. The USA-South also isn't what it once was on the national scene with the departure of Chris. Newport to the CAC and Greensboro's days as a regular Top 25 team becoming a distant memory. The old South Region (the NJAC and much of the CAC is not the South) is just not providing nationally competitive teams at the moment. No idea why that is.
Of course qualifications for NCAA bids is a different issue than low interest from that area on this website. Any theories on why the ODAC group doesn't have more representation on this website? How come we don't Roanoke and Lynchburg fans going at it like the St Olaf and Carleton crowd?
No clue about the lack of ODAC representation on this board. I know that when the old d3soccer.net was up and running, there were a few more out there.
In my eyes, Lynchburg isn't Roanoke's biggest rival. I'd have to go with W&L or Va Wes if I had to choose. But that might be that during my playing days at Roanoke (99-2002) Lynchburg was down right awful. We were battling W&L and Va Wes for the ODAC. In terms of OCC rivals, we had some great/nasty games vs G'Boro. So much that we called off playing annually for a bit of time. Good times.
I remember Lynchburg in 2010 and was very impressed with their play. They battled back to defeat Bowdoin in the NCAA semi's in the 87th minute they tied the game and won it in OT. Obviously they should have won it all but we all know what happened. As far as Roanoke they must start scheduling a few challenging 2 or 3 top quality opponents to get Pool C recognition.
Noke up 4-1 with 10 to play
Lynchburg and VA Wes tied 2-2 with 10 to play
Roanoke wins easily over W&L 5-1 and Lynchburg wins over VA Wes in PKs
Roanoke will host Lynchburg on Saturday. Time to be determined.
Quote from: NokeAlum15 on November 05, 2014, 08:06:25 AM
Roanoke wins easily over W&L 5-1 and Lynchburg wins over VA Wes in PKs
That second half went badly for my Generals. Good luck Roanoke in the finals. Play like you did in the second half and there is a good shot for some noise not just in the ODAC finals but the NCAA tournament.
Quote from: jknezek on November 05, 2014, 09:22:20 AM
Quote from: NokeAlum15 on November 05, 2014, 08:06:25 AM
Roanoke wins easily over W&L 5-1 and Lynchburg wins over VA Wes in PKs
That second half went badly for my Generals. Good luck Roanoke in the finals. Play like you did in the second half and there is a good shot for some noise not just in the ODAC finals but the NCAA tournament.
Thanks. Marc Dinkel took over this game in the 2nd half. I'll be interested to see how Lynchburg decides to defend him. He has the ability to takeover a game as he did last night.
I was impressed with the two ODAC finalists. I would put Roanoke through even if they lost a tight game to Lynchburg.
South Atlantic
1 Emory 13-3-1 13-3-1
2 Salisbury 11-1-5 12-1-5
3 Rutgers-Newark 15-4-0 15-4-0
4 Christopher Newport 14-3-4 14-3-4
5 Covenant 13-4-2 13-4-2
6 Centre 8-3-5 8-3-5
7 Montclair State 15-4-0 15-4-0
Wow. Looks like MSU could be on the edge of missing out if they don't win the AQ. Camden definitely in a must win spot.
I would say...
1. Emory. Pool C
2. MSU. AQ
3. CNU. AQ
4. Salisbury. Pool C
5. Covenant. AQ
6. Rutgers Newark or Camden... Pool C
7. Roanoke or Lynchburg. Need AQ
8. SAA AQ making it only 8 teams to represent the South Atlantic. (5 AQ, 3 pool C)
Roanoke 2015 schedule:
DATE OPPONENT LOCATION TIME/RESULT LIVE STATS LIVE WEBCAST CONFERENCE GAME DETAILS
8/23/2015 Radford University (exhibition) Radford, VA 2:00 PM Details
8/26/2015 Concord University (exhibition) Athens, WV 4:00 PM Details
9/1/2015 Ferrum College Salem, VA - Donald J. Kerr Stadium 7:30 PM Live Stats Details
Drew Fall Festival
9/5/2015 Drew University Madison, NJ 6:00 PM
9/6/2015 The College of New Jersey Ewing, NJ 2:00 PM
All Sports Cafe Roanoke Invitational
9/11/2015 Greensboro College Salem, VA - Donald J. Kerr Stadium 7:30 PM
9/12/2015 William Peace University Salem, VA - Donald J. Kerr Stadium 6:30 PM
9/17/2015 Southern Virginia University Buena Vista, VA 7:00 PM
9/19/2015 University of Mary Washington Fredericksburg, VA 3:00 PM
9/23/2015 Randolph-Macon College Ashland, VA 4:00 PM
9/26/2015 Shenandoah University Winchester, VA 7:00 PM
9/29/2015 Randolph College Salem, VA - Donald J. Kerr Stadium 7:30 PM
10/2/2015 Eastern Mennonite University Salem, VA - Donald J. Kerr Stadium 7:00 PM
10/10/2015 Bridgewater College Salem, VA - Donald J. Kerr Stadium 7:00 PM
10/13/2015 Guilford College Greensboro, NC 7:00 PM
10/16/2015 Emory & Henry College Emory, VA 7:00 PM
10/21/2015 Lynchburg College Salem, VA - Donald J. Kerr Stadium 7:00 PM
10/24/2015 Virginia Wesleyan College Salem, VA - Donald J. Kerr Stadium 6:00 PM
10/28/2015 Hampden-Sydney College Hampden-Sydney, VA 7:00 PM
10/31/2015 Washington and Lee University Lexington, VA 1:00 PM
ODAC Tournament