Week 1 regional rankings (guess)
1. CMU (3-0)
2. F&M (3-0)
3. Etown (3-0)
4. Messiah (1-1). Loss to CMU
5. Drew (3-0). Wins over Swat n Roanoke
6. Gettysburg (2-0). Wins over Wilkes n York
7. Haverford (2-1). Loss to STevens Tech
8. Dickinson (2-1). Loss to Etown.
9. Merchant Marine (2-1). Loss to Salisbury
10.Eastern (2-0-1)
-----------------------
11. Lycoming. Loss to Eastern
Haverford and Dickinson could be ranked ahead of Drew n Gettysburg due to SOS and quality loss, but I'm not buying into it just yet. Messiah will be outside of top 25 for first time in who knows how long? RV is a possibility.
Did CMU move to Mid Atlantic???
And I highly doubt Messiah will drop past top 10-12 nationally.
Brain fart. Remove CMU and slide everyone up. CMU played two weak opponents aside from Messiah. I would think Messiah drops to Atleast 3 in NSCAA region rankings... Slots 17-19 on National Ranking
Lastguyoffbench looks about right.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Messiah out of top 25 but a loss to CMU does not hurt them. Drew would be my own guess to be above them with 2 quality wins over Swat and Roanoke (both at home) and Gettysburg more quality with road win at York.
I was actually impressed by Messiah. You can't lose perhaps their greatest class of all time (plus Brandt) and expect no blips at all. The Falcons will have as good a chance as anyone once we get to November, with the difference being that they won't be prohibitive favorites. Would not surprise me at all to see Messiah lift the trophy.
I don't see Messiah getting passed the Sweet 16 this year. As the field gets smaller and talent/experience increases, they will fall. It will be hard to gauge their talent as their overall schedule is weak. I would be shocked if they won it this year as I still feel that the graduating class was the best in Messiah history. Way too many holes to fill when you include the Brandt transfer...
This is by no means a knock on the program, but just realistic expectations. I will be looking forward to MidAtlantic region dogfight as the playing field is going to level out this year.
Massey Ratings
1. Messiah (2) (0-0) no results posted which would drop them to 3 or 4
2. F&M (14)
3. Dickinson (15) loss to E-town not posted.
4. Haverford (36)
5. Muhlenberg (41)
6. Drew (43)
7. Eastern (52) Arcadia W not posted
8. Lycoming (53)
9. Gettysburg (58)
10. Merchant Marine (75)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
11. Elizabethtown (78) W over Dickinson should see them bump to 3rd.
12. Johns Hopkins (92)
Eastern has poor SOS and is barely sneaking by. I see them fading once conference play hits (even though they are in a weak conference). Messiah will roll in their next 5 games. They really weakened their schedule this year and who can blame them after the class they lost? Saw F&M and Alvernia face off. Wasn't overly impressed by F&M. Bailed out by a PK in OT. Top teams seem weaker than past years. Is it me or is the gap just closing? Centennial Conf. off to a rough start. Etown looks like the favorites in this region by the way they have started. Gettysburg with a good road win @York as well. Lycoming has rebounded nicely over the weekend with two road wins vs Scranton and York after a tough OT loss vs Eastern. 2 tough home losses for York. Any thoughts or predictions who finishes in the top 5 of this region come November?
Any thoughts or predictions for tomorrow's release of the rankings?
Here are mine:
1. F&M 5-0
2. Messiah 3-1
3. Etown 5-0
4. Drew 5-0
5. Gettysburg 4-0
6. Eastern 4-0-1
7. Lycoming 4-1
8.Wash. Coll. 4-0
9. Cabrini 4-0-1
10. Dickinson 2-1
Honorable Mentions: Swarthmore 3-2, Hood 4-2, Kings 4-1, Merchant Marine 4-1
My guess
F&M
Messiah
Etown
Eastern
Drew
Gettysburg
Lycoming
Cabrini
Merchant Marines
Dickinson
Rank School W-L-T
1 Franklin & Marshall College 5-0-0
2 Messiah College 3-1-0
3 Elizabethtown College 5-0-0
4 Eastern University 4-0-1
5 Drew University 4-0-0
6 Gettysburg College 4-0-0
7 Lycoming College 4-1-0
8 Dickinson College 2-1-0
9 Merchant Marine Academy 4-1-0
10 Cabrini College 4-0-1
LastGuy you only flipped Dickinson and MM. Well done! I apparently underrated Eastern. Still surprised they are at 4 though.
I will be interested to see the result of the Messiah v Gettysburg game. From what I can tell Messiah absolutely dominates them year in year out.
Probably a 3-0 result in favor of Messiah.
I know I mentioned this last year but it still befuddles me why Messiah does not play 4-5 teams from the Centennial. Location + and Competition + for both teams. Curious as to why this does not happen either from Messiah's standpoint or some Centennial teams
They probably don't want to play Messiah is my guess. There would be some fun match-ups if they did though. I would love to see them face F&M.
Like I argued last year the Centennial teams have nothing to lose. They boost their SOS and if they lose they are supposed to lose but if they get a result that does wonders for them come November. It is basically a win-win proposition for them
I agree 100%. The Cenn. is similar to the SEC in football. You can finish 10-8 and have a chance at the tournament. I don't think that will be the case this year by the looks of how things have started for a lot of those teams. Still baffled by Dickinson making the tournament last year. Didn't win a game in their final month of play.
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on September 15, 2015, 01:41:44 PM
I agree 100%. The Cenn. is similar to the SEC in football. You can finish 10-8 and have a chance at the tournament. I don't think that will be the case this year by the looks of how things have started for a lot of those teams. Still baffled by Dickinson making the tournament last year. Didn't win a game in their final month of play.
Dickinson bowed out very quickly in a lackluster game vs Tufts...I am still baffled how RPI got totally shafted as they should of got in before Dickinson and most likely would have taken there spot at Wheaton MA in that pod
RPI, Haverford should have been in it...
K-zoo and Camden were the teams peaking just too late that could have made some noise as well.
In regards to the Mid-Atlantic, Manhanttanville could be a team that wins their conference. Will be a decent race with Eastern, King's, and Miseri. Lost on the last second to MSU, Beat Vassar (who tied Oneonta St). Scored twice on Rutgers-Camden.
I remember Haverford having like the best SOS and OWP and OOWP but maybe having 1 to many losses. I could be wrong but same deal for Camden as they were peaking but just 1 to many losses. RPI had a great SOS and decent Record v Ranked and I think only 3-4 losses but maybe had 1 to many draws..oh well anyway.....
Quote from: Mr.Right on September 15, 2015, 01:31:43 PM
I know I mentioned this last year but it still befuddles me why Messiah does not play 4-5 teams from the Centennial. Location + and Competition + for both teams. Curious as to why this does not happen either from Messiah's standpoint or some Centennial teams
Of course, pre-1993 the Centennial schools were in the huge two-league, four division Middle Atlantic Conference (MAC) with Messiah, but some/most were in other divisions. Since 1993 they have been non-conference options for the Falcons. For a long time Messiah avoided playing on astroturf/carpet. And I think that habit died hard even with the advent of the synthetic turfs that are so common now. But certainly under Brad McCarty, that has changed as it should given the increased likelihood of playing on it in the tournament. But that explains why Messiah never tried to schedule Hopkins back when they were a national power chosing instead to play a Greensboro or Christopher Newport. In more recent years, Hopkins has ceased be as attractive of an opponent. Messiah did play a spring game at Hopkins this year.
Messiah has year-in, year-out consistently played Dickinson and Gettysburg who are two of their closest D-III neighbors (not sure why Dickinson was dropped this year). Those two are second and thrid on the list of most played opponents all-time (behind E-town). They had McDaniel on the schedule for a couple of home-and-home series back in then mid-2000s when McDaniel was peaking competitively. The played Haverford home-and-away in 2011/2012. Swarthmore? They had turf, so historically that would have ruled them out.
I can only speculate about why they don't play F&M. First, before the past 5 or so years, they were not a perennial top team, so that combined with their turf kept them from being a target. I don't think the turf is much, if any, of a factor anymore, but they are coached by a Messiah alum (who's had other Messiah alum as assistants) so there's those connections and mutual respect for what F&M does on and off the field. Not sure if they'd simply rather not lock horns.
Perhaps the biggest head-scratcher is the lack of games against Muhlenberg. Pretty easy trip for Messiah. Grass field, although small. Some NCAA encounters back in the 80's and 90's seemed as good start for a rivalry.
Who knows. And it's a two-way street. Messiah wasn't necessarily the impediment to more games with some of the Centennial schools.
I was surprised that John Carroll, Lycoming, or RPI didn't get in! 17-4, 15-3-3, and 12-4-3 I believe for those 3 teams? Might be off by a game but still all 3 had serious cases to make the tournament. All 3 got tripped up in their conference finals too. Will never understand how the committee doesn't consider how the team is playing at that moment. Dickinson did not win any of their last 5 games which included 4 losses during that span. How a team that is 0-4-1 leading up to NCAA's and finishes 11-6-2 and gets in is crazy. RPI played a tough schedule and just couldn't get by St. Lawrence either time and Lycoming couldn't get by Messiah either time. Still feel bad for those 3 teams last year. But it's a new year with more surprises I'm sure! And in regards to Manhattanville, they are the dark horse of that conference but that is a possible for that conference. Didn't they lose with 1 second left against MSU? Harsh.
Was also curious why Dickinson was dropped from Messiah's schedule. Does anyone have any info on that?
Quote from: Flying Weasel on September 15, 2015, 02:36:26 PM
Quote from: Mr.Right on September 15, 2015, 01:31:43 PM
I know I mentioned this last year but it still befuddles me why Messiah does not play 4-5 teams from the Centennial. Location + and Competition + for both teams. Curious as to why this does not happen either from Messiah's standpoint or some Centennial teams
Of course, pre-1993 the Centennial schools were in the huge two-league, four division Middle Atlantic Conference (MAC) with Messiah, but some/most were in other divisions. Since 1993 they have been non-conference options for the Falcons. For a long time Messiah avoided playing on astroturf/carpet. And I think that habit died hard even with the advent of the synthetic turfs that are so common now. But certainly under Brad McCarty, that has changed as it should given the increased likelihood of playing on it in the tournament. But that explains why Messiah never tried to schedule Hopkins back when they were a national power chosing instead to play a Greensboro or Christopher Newport. In more recent years, Hopkins has ceased be as attractive of an opponent. Messiah did play a spring game at Hopkins this year.
Messiah has year-in, year-out consistently played Dickinson and Gettysburg who are two of their closest D-III neighbors (not sure why Dickinson was dropped this year). Those two are second and thrid on the list of most played opponents all-time (behind E-town). They had McDaniel on the schedule for a couple of home-and-home series back in then mid-2000s when McDaniel was peaking competitively. The played Haverford home-and-away in 2011/2012. Swarthmore? They had turf, so historically that would have ruled them out.
I can only speculate about why they don't play F&M. First, before the past 5 or so years, they were not a perennial top team, so that combined with their turf kept them from being a target. I don't think the turf is much, if any, of a factor anymore, but they are coached by a Messiah alum (who's had other Messiah alum as assistants) so there's those connections and mutual respect for what F&M does on and off the field. Not sure if they'd simply rather not lock horns.
Perhaps the biggest head-scratcher is the lack of games against Muhlenberg. Pretty easy trip for Messiah. Grass field, although small. Some NCAA encounters back in the 80's and 90's seemed as good start for a rivalry.
Who knows. And it's a two-way street. Messiah wasn't necessarily the impediment to more games with some of the Centennial schools.
This makes a lot of sense as I know from the 90's on some Nescac teams would refuse to play on turf.
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on September 15, 2015, 02:19:46 PM
In regards to the Mid-Atlantic, Manhanttanville could be a team that wins their conference.
A quick peek at Manhattanville's roster reveals an interesting trend toward recruiting international players that may have something to do with the team's rise. This year's first-year class includes an Austrian, three Swedes, a Brazilian, and a South African, who join two Swedish sophomores, a Swedish junior, and a Hungarian senior on the squad.
http://www.govaliants.com/roster.aspx?path=msoc&
Falling back on foreigners is a risky proposition. Usually the coach has not seen them play, just seen video. It is a total crapshoot that lower level D1 guys deal with every year.
NC Wesleyan had success with this in mid 2000s I believe.
Usually see this happen in D2 as well....
Salem State had great success in the 80's and early 90's with this as well. I think they made 1 D3 Final 4 if I remember correctly. Then the "crazy" and I mean "CRAZY" coach Padovani made a huge NCAA VIOLATION that cost him his job and ever since Salem State have been irrelevant except some token 1 and done NCAA appearances...Story for another day
Big upcoming week for non-conference action in this region that could rattle the standings a bit.
Messiah vs Gettysburg and York
F & M vs Etown and Swat
Eastern vs Swat and Salisbury
Drew vs Muhlenberg and The College of NJ
Lycoming vs Keystone and Rochester
Cabrini vs Camden and Alvernia
York vs Hopkins, Misericordia and Messiah
Should be a fun week and a half!
I will be following that Lycoming v Rochester game closely. Lycoming has jumped off to another fast start this year but seem to have a bit more challenging schedule before league play. U of R has started 2-2-1 but have played a solid schedule to go along with their usual UAA nemesis's. U of R does need to start winning a couple of these games as they will finish with an above .600 SOS but might not have a favorable Record v Ranked.
Yes I noticed that too. Looks like they (Lycoming) have added York again (not sure why they dropped each other for one year), Scranton, SUNY Oneonta, and Eastern. All better teams than the ones they have replaced from last season.
I believe Lycoming and Rochester have split the past 2 years. Both winning at home. Lycoming prevailing last season 2-1 in OT. Very even game from what I remember and a PK save was made by the Lycoming keeper. Will have to check the box score on the stats though.
Two years ago Rochester won 2-0. Pretty dominating performance from what I recollect. Once again I would have to check the box score for stats. Think it was 1-0 Rochester until very late when Lycoming was pushing for a goal and gave one up in the last 10 minutes on a counter. Very good Rochester team that year.
Should be a fun game to keep an eye on! I am looking forward to how Eastern and Drew shape up with 2 tough games coming for both.
I think Lycoming realized they needed to amp up that out of conference schedule after going 15-3-3 and not getting a sniff for the NCAA's. I would still like to see one more solid game to go along with Eastern, Scranton, York and Rochester. Again, why not play Oneonta St? I know its about 3 hours but well worth the travel..Why not combine the Rochester trip with a Hobart or Geneseo. Just some ideas..
Off topic: I would like to vote The University of Rochester as the biggest CONUNDRUM in D3 Soccer the past 10 years..Any other nominations?
They do play Oneonta St in late October in the middle of their conference schedule this year. I'm guessing to gear up for playoffs in anticipation of facing Messiah.
Messiah and Gettysburg 0-0 halfway through the first half.
Messiah and Gettysburg 0-0 at half.
F&M up 2-0 on Etown at the half.
Lycoming beats Juniata 6-0.
Muhlenberg and Drew at 0-0 halfway through the first half of their game.
Eastern beats Swat 1-0 with 45 seconds left in the game. They keep finding a way to sneak by.
York vs Hopkins 0-0 at half.
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on September 16, 2015, 07:22:09 PM
They do play Oneonta St in late October in the middle of their conference schedule this year. I'm guessing to gear up for playoffs in anticipation of facing Messiah.
Yes you are correct I missed that. So the out of conference is pretty good but would still look for one more quality game
No worries Mr. Right. And Messiah and Gettysburg headed to OT. F&M beats Etown 4-2. Muhlenberg and Drew still notched at 0 30 minutes to play.
I watched the Messiah game last night. First half was pretty even. Started out chippy with Gettysburg getting 2 cards early. Messiah had the better of the possession I would say 60/40. Even on shots (4-3 in favor of the falcons) and Gettysburg defended well. Second half and OT was a different story. I think Gettysburg got 1 shot off in the final 65 minutes of play and it came in OT. Messiah ended up out-shooting them 18-4 for the game. Corners were 8-1 for the falcons. Completely dominated the bullets. Gettysburg keeper had a couple scares when trying to smother the ball. Could have been the surface as players were slipping left and right. Messiah had opportunities and couldn't finish. One that comes to mind was a ball played back across from the end-line to the PK spot and the kid blew it over the bar. Anywhere on frame or a pass to the corner and it probably ends the game. Lack of focus and that's not something we are used to seeing from Messiah teams. Sloppy out of the back on occasion as well.
Overall Messiah will be just fine. They are trying to rebuild after losing arguably the greatest recruiting class ever in D3 soccer. It will take time. They are 3-1-1 with 4 shutouts. That's a fantastic start for anybody else. They will start to click. I was skeptical after watching the CMU game. The goalie was awful and they didn't defend well at all. Since then they have cleaned it up. Last night was a game they should have won 2-0 based off the chances they created. One of those games plus Gettysburg deserves credit. That's a good squad to have a showing like that on the road.
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on September 17, 2015, 11:31:16 AM
I watched the Messiah game last night. First half was pretty even. Started out chippy with Gettysburg getting 2 cards early. Messiah had the better of the possession I would say 60/40. Even on shots (4-3 in favor of the falcons) and Gettysburg defended well. Second half and OT was a different story. I think Gettysburg got 1 shot off in the final 65 minutes of play and it came in OT. Messiah ended up out-shooting them 18-4 for the game. Corners were 8-1 for the falcons. Completely dominated the bullets. Gettysburg keeper had a couple scares when trying to smother the ball. Could have been the surface as players were slipping left and right. Messiah had opportunities and couldn't finish. One that comes to mind was a ball played back across from the end-line to the PK spot and the kid blew it over the bar. Anywhere on frame or a pass to the corner and it probably ends the game. Lack of focus and that's not something we are used to seeing from Messiah teams. Sloppy out of the back on occasion as well.
Overall Messiah will be just fine. They are trying to rebuild after losing arguably the greatest recruiting class ever in D3 soccer. It will take time. They are 3-1-1 with 4 shutouts. That's a fantastic start for anybody else. They will start to click. I was skeptical after watching the CMU game. The goalie was awful and they didn't defend well at all. Since then they have cleaned it up. Last night was a game they should have won 2-0 based off the chances they created. One of those games plus Gettysburg deserves credit. That's a good squad to have a showing like that on the road.
Pretty good review of the game. On the balance of play, a 2-0 win for the Falcons would have seemed fair and reasonable. Finishing (or the lack of it) cost them, plain and simple. Gettysburg did well with their ball pressure and good marking making it more difficult for the Falcons, but Messiah still managed enough quality chances to expect to score and win the game. They will need to do better in that department, for sure. If they can improve the finishing and get more effective center forward play, they could be very, very good come November. Goalkeeping has been much better since the shaky opening weekend, but probably the other big question mark. After that I wonder how the centerbacks will do against a team with fast, top level forwards. Will be interesting to see the season play out and see how things develop.
This is all well and true but Messiah will not have a top echelon SOS. Their schedule is fairly weak this year compared to the last few. My guess is they will have a SOS of around .565-.570. What will their record be vs ranked opponents? I believe in the end Carnegie Mellon , Lycoming, Misericordia and York will be ranked. Rowan and Gettysburg possibly but not a definite. If Messiah does not win its league tournament they might be sweating a NCAA bid out if they cannot get results against York, Lycoming and Misericordia.
You're right. And that's why I said in the National thread that Messiah's margin for error is as narrow as its been in a very long time due to their SOS being lower than normal. But it should still be equal or higher than Salisbury's was last year and the Gulls got in with a 12-2-5 record (7 blemishes) and no wins vs. ranked teams (3 ties). Can't count on getting in with that resume, of course, but just illustrating that it's not clear yet just how narrow their margin of error is.
Shame their schedule dropped off like this. York's fall-off couldn't have been predicted and planned for. Losing Catholic isn't an issue if they are replaced with another regionally ranked opponent. Losing Dickinson is a head-scratcher, and maybe it's a one-year scheduling conflict and they'll be back on the slate next year, but that's hurt the SOS. And a shame that Montclair S. wasn't retained or replaced with another high profile team. And, BTW, I have no expectations of York being ranked. Already have two losses so no signs yet that we should expect a dramatic turn-around after they missed out on the 6-team CAC playoffs last year and nowhere near beig ranked regionally. It would help Messiah if they were, but not counting on that.
Messiah should be sweating it if they can't get results against York, Lycoming, and Misericordia. But until they drop those games, it's too early to put them on the at-large bubble. Playing the way they are right now, a couple more blemishes would seem likely, but they won't be static. Players and coaching staff will be dedicated to improvements, so we need to see how this re-built side develops and how quickly.
You are correct as I was just re-checking the schedules. We certainly do not know if York will even be ranked as they have a daunting schedule coming up. Also, Misericordia has a couple challenging non-conference games coming up and if they slip up in conference that will spell trouble. Rowan is 5-1-0 but have beaten cupcakes and lost to SLU 4-0. I had no heard any info from the SLU guys about that Rowan v SLU game which would be helpful for us to gauge Rowan. I am guessing they are a bit better than a 4-0 loss to SLU but how much better is unknown
Alvernia coming from behind on the road to upend Dickinson 2-1. Trailed 1-0 at the half too.
It seems some of the Centennial teams this year that are usually on the NCAA bubble are losing or drawing games they would need come November. I am noticing Dickinson, Muhlenberg and Swarthmore struggling to start the year before conference play starts. Gettysburg just had a great draw against Messiah, Washington College has played more cupcakes than tough games, Hopkins has played an excellent Out of Conference schedule and that win over Brockport State( who also has played a brutal schedule) might be a big factor come November. F&M's schedule to me is not that impressive but they also have gotten off to a fast start
NSCAA Projections
1. F&M
2. Eastern
3. Gettysburg
4. Drew
5. Etown
6. Lycoming
7. Miseri
8. Alvernia. Draw vs Eastern. L 0-1 to F&M
9. Messiah
10.Dickinson
--------------------
11. Manhattanville
12. Merchant Marine
13. Cabrini
14. Washington College
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on September 20, 2015, 01:01:14 PM
NSCAA Projections
1. F&M
2. Eastern
3. Gettysburg
4. Drew
5. Etown
6. Lycoming
7. Miseri
8. Alvernia. Draw vs Eastern. L 0-1 to F&M
9. Messiah
10.Dickinson
--------------------
11. Manhattanville
12. Merchant Marine
13. Cabrini
14. Washington College
Can't say I would disagree much. I would switch Misericordia with Messiah and flip-flop Etown and Lyco.
Massey Ratings (National) for reference
1. F&M (5)
2. Eastern (12)
3. Lycoming (26)
4. Messiah (27)
5. Gettysburg (29)
6. Etown (38)
7. Drew (47)
8. Dickinson (56)
9. Alvernia (58)
10. Haverford (64)
----------------------
11. Kings (75)
12. Miseri (76)
13. Manhattanville (78)
14. Merchant Marine (84)
MAC Freedom is looking like a strong conference this year with Eastern, Kings, Miseri, Manhattanville fighting for that AQ. Still only looks like a one bid league though, IMO. Eastern with a big game this week at Salisbury on 9/23.
Yes you are right in saying that LastGuy. Manhattanville is the biggest surprise IMO. Kings hasn't played anyone yet except cupcakes so I will be curious to see how they shape up against the other 3 you mentioned. Misericordia playing well and flying under the radar. Eastern should win the league but they should have the last 2 years and choked come playoff time. Time will tell.
D3 Soccer Poll: Mid-Atlantic Teams
3. F&M
16. Etown
23. Messiah
Receiving Votes:
Gettysburg (72)
Drew (72)
Eastern (18)
Lycoming (2)
7 teams in the poll. Quite a lot for this region and it's nice to see!
Surprised to see E-town hold steady at #16 despite being well beaten by F&M. I guess it speaks somewhat to how many teams ahead of them last week did even worse.
Has York's era ended? Gonna be a great game at Messiah. At the same rate, incredibly unpredictable who will get the result this year...
IMO York is still figuring things out with the new coach. I watched them play a couple times and they are a talented group. Some dynamic kids in the attacking third. I wouldn't sweep them under the rug just yet.
Just what Messiah needs a talented York team that has more hunger for a win than they might. With the amount of goals Messiah is letting in a talented group in the attacking 3rd for York sounds like a must watch.
Rank School Prev. W-L-T
1 Franklin & Marshall College
DH Elizabethtown College 4-2; DH Swarthmore College 1-0; 1 7-0-0
2 Eastern University
DH Swarthmore College 1-0; DH Centenary College (N.J.) 3-0; 4 6-0-1
3 Drew University
TH Muhlenberg College 0-0; DH Juniata College 2-1; 5 6-0-1
4 Gettysburg College
TA Messiah College 0-0; DH Ursinus College 2-1; 6 5-0-1
5 Elizabethtown College
LA Franklin & Marshall College 2-4; DH Catholic University 5-2; 3 6-1-0
6 Lycoming College
DH Juniata College 6-0; DH Keystone College 5-1; 7 6-1-0
7 Messiah College
TH Gettysburg College 0-0; LH Rowan University 2-4; 2 3-2-1
8 King's College
DA Juniata College 2-1; DH Arcadia University 2-1; NR 6-1-0
9 Dickinson College
DA Goucher College 2-0; LH Alvernia University 1-2; DH Washington College (Md.) 2-0; 8 4-2-0
10 Cabrini College
LA Rutgers University-Camden 0-1; TH Alvernia University 1-1; 10 4-1-2
I had Drew and Gettysburg flipped in mine. Also didn't have Kings in my top 10. Not sure how they got in. Haven't really played anybody besides cupcakes this year. Alvernia had my vote.
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on September 22, 2015, 02:17:31 PM
I had Drew and Gettysburg flipped in mine. Also didn't have Kings in my top 10. Not sure how they got in. Haven't really played anybody besides cupcakes this year. Alvernia had my vote.
Got to agree that Alvernia seems to be an oversight. Beat Dickinson head-to-head to boot. Not sure how Alvernia doesn't get in over one of King's, Dickinson, and Cabrini.
Quote from: Flying Weasel on September 22, 2015, 03:02:46 PM
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on September 22, 2015, 02:17:31 PM
I had Drew and Gettysburg flipped in mine. Also didn't have Kings in my top 10. Not sure how they got in. Haven't really played anybody besides cupcakes this year. Alvernia had my vote.
Got to agree that Alvernia seems to be an oversight. Beat Dickinson head-to-head to boot. Not sure how Alvernia doesn't get in over one of King's, Dickinson, and Cabrini.
If I could give you +Karma right now I would but I am not on that level yet! ;D
F&M escapes Stevenson 1-0 in OT...I heard that Stevenson missed a PK in OT. Incredible. I didn't watch the game so I can't base my opinion of F&M off the result, but as I said before, I was not overly impressed with them when I watched them play Alvernia. By no means does that mean they are a bad team, but as a top 5 team in the country you expect them to run away with most of their games. The gap is continuing to close nationwide.
And my rankings for this region based off of what I think, not just records or SOS, but who has impressed the most and who I feel is playing the best right now and will be the most dangerous in the future is as follows:
1. F&M
2. Messiah
3. Eastern
4. Lycoming
5. Gettysburg
6. Alvernia
7. Etown
8. Drew
9. Dickinson
10. Cabrini
Alvernia's game today vs Etown will help my justification of them being a spot in front of the blue jays with a tie or win.
Eastern at Salisbury
Etown at Alvernia
Misericordia at Camden
Big day for this region!!
I'll go with...
Eastern 1, Salisbury 2
Etown 1, Alvernia 1
Miseri 0, Camden 2
It looks like Eastern needs that Salisbury game more than Salisbury.
Also, would have to be a big win if Miseri can beat a RUC team who is 51-3-3 at home. ++ for them taking on the challenge. They beat York and if they get this one and Messiah they should be good to go come November. Easier said than done
I don't think Misericordia will get either of those 2 games but who knows with the way things have been going so far this year.
I have never seen that team play. What is their style?
Historically rough and aggressive. Kick it long and hound you. It wears teams down. Normally have a lot of size to their players so they are good in the air. From what I heard through the grapevine is that both their goalies were injured going into the season. I am not sure if either has recovered but if they are 4-1-1 with their 3rd string goalie then they are probably very happy. Coach Edkins has been at the helm for quite a while and has had plenty of success.
Good wins for them so far have been Scranton 1-0 and York 3-2. They lost to Arcadia 3-1 and tied Ursinus who didn't pick up their first win until last week. I have heard that they are down from past years and had a rough time with their preseason scrimmages. But that's why it is preseason!
I am eager to see how they progress throughout the remainder of the year especially against Messiah, Camden, and Dickinson. I have not seen them play this year yet either but will try and catch a game at some point. Being in a weak conference will benefit them though.
And I'll go with...
Eastern 1, Salisbury 1
Etown 1, Alvernia 2
Miseri 2, Camden 5
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on September 23, 2015, 02:11:35 PM
Historically rough and aggressive. Kick it long and hound you. It wears teams down. Normally have a lot of size to their players so they are good in the air. From what I heard through the grapevine is that both their goalies were injured going into the season. I am not sure if either has recovered but if they are 4-1-1 with their 3rd string goalie then they are probably very happy. Coach Edkins has been at the helm for quite a while and has had plenty of success.
Good wins for them so far have been Scranton 1-0 and York 3-2. They lost to Arcadia 3-1 and tied Ursinus who didn't pick up their first win until last week. I have heard that they are down from past years and had a rough time with their preseason scrimmages. But that's why it is preseason!
I am eager to see how they progress throughout the remainder of the year especially against Messiah, Camden, and Dickinson. I have not seen them play this year yet either but will try and catch a game at some point. Being in a weak conference will benefit them though.
If this is their style that should play into RUC's hands..correct? Have these teams matched up the past 3 years and what were the results. Seems that style might work nice against Messiah just sit 10 deep and counter, everyone drop when you lose the ball. Compact the middle of the field.
I think this is the first time these 2 teams are playing each other in a long time or ever. They have not played each other in the past 4 years.
And they have been blanked 3-0 and 3-0 against Messiah the last 2 years. Will see how they match up this year with Messiah. Still don't think they even stand a chance though against Messiah or Camden.
Well you are predicting RUC getting 5 goals. That tells me this team is either more spaced out on the field than I thought, not organized defensively, 3rd string GK or they give up after letting in 2-3 goals and throw in the towel
They gave up 3 to Arcadia and 2 to Ursinus. Camden is better offensively IMO and I think it will be a high scoring game. I think the physicality of Camden and trash talking aspect will get in Misericordia's head. If Camden strikes early I think they could put up 3 in the half. 3-1 at half 5-2 final. If Camden has some fast kids up top I think they will toast the defense. From what I hear they have good aggressive CB's but are very slow on and off the ball. Pace all day gives an edge to Camden if they have it. Haven't seen a Camden game since the NCAA Championship game vs Messiah two years ago. But you and many others praise them so from all the hear say I give Camden the edge. A more realistic score could be 4-2 or 4-1 or 3-2 or 3-1. I do believe there will be plenty of goals in this game.
I am not trying to slam Misericordia but if it's all about who you play and how you stack up against them then I am not won over yet because they don't have top tier results like other teams in the region. That's why I don't understand Kings being regionally ranked. Yes they are 6-1 but played all cupcake teams and don't have a challenging game until they play Eastern or Misericordia. We punish Messiah for playing a tough schedule (tougher than most) and being 4-2-1 after graduating/losing basically their entire starting 11. But we reward Kings for being 6-1 or Etown for 1 good win against Dickinson and a poor showing in a loss to F&M. I don't get it? If the system is going to be "Hey you won a lot of games but didn't play anybody but here's your reward for winning a lot" then it needs to be that way for everyone not just a select few.
Saying that Messiah might not get an AQ is insane. It's way too early and if it ended today they should get in. Just because they aren't the Messiah of old (yet) doesn't mean they aren't a good team.
I will take a 3-1-3 team like Alvernia who played F&M to a tough 1-0 OT loss and probably should have tied 0-0, tied Eastern and Cabrini, and beat Dickinson over a 6-1 Kings or Etown team who have only played 1 or 2 tough teams and couldn't get results. Just my thought process but I hope it's a logical one? ;D
Messiah might not get an Pool C. It has nothing to do with if they are a better team than the results are showing. Many teams have this problem. It is all about the results and record v ranked teams, SOS, OWP,etc. They will not have played to many ranked teams and the ones that might be ranked they have lost to. CMU and Rowan. York will not be ranked if they lose 1 or 2 more. Miser might / might not. Lycoming should but if they go 0-3-0 against Oneonta, Roch and Messsiah they will not be ranked. NUmbers game babe..
BTW after Rowan was peaking my interest this afternoon I went to their website and they have a 1:20 youtube highlight of the Messiah game that they won 4-2. You tell me if that Messiah team looks like one's in the past. The 1st goal was weak defending and tackling as the defender dropped off so much the Rowan kid had a free shot, keeper might of gotten it. 2nd goal was an absolutely horrendous GK mistake, right thru his hands from 40 yards out. If I was betting on the game I would have been screaming that the GK was throwing the match. 3rd goal was a nice ball forward as Messiah most likely was pushing numbers forward and Rowan kid was in on GK 1v1. GK came to early and the kid chipped him. Horrible GK error. 4th goal was a deflection off a corner and a weak deflection at that.Total loss of concentration
Messiah needs to hope that Rowan and CMU are not regionally ranked time come NCAA releases... If by chance Lycoming wins the MAC this year, then no... I do not think Messiah will get in. Plenty of season left and you could say that Messiah's season now hinges on the games at E-town and at Lycoming, but the games could prove to be irrelevant if they snatch up the AQ. With that being said, Messiah will win the conference, leaving Lycoming hoping for an at large bid.
Rowan will be a mid-table NJAC team, CMU most likely mid-table UAA. Gettysburg a mid-table Centennial and York will be a mid-table in the CAC. The only reason Messiah SOS is higher than what it appears is because those are strong conferences and it was smart scheduling done by the Falcons.
On the the Miseri game:
I watched the Miseri-MSU in 2013 at CMU... Miseri had a few decent chances. New year, new team and just looking at Miseri schedule thus far, it's hard to tell how good/bad they are. I think a 2-0, 3-1 scoreline is about right in Camden today. After today, RUC is off for a week in preparation for a home game vs Rowan (lost last year 1-0)...
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on September 23, 2015, 04:30:29 PMRowan will be a mid-table NJAC team, CMU most likely mid-table UAA. Gettysburg a mid-table Centennial and York will be a mid-table in the CAC. The only reason Messiah SOS is higher than what it appears is because those are strong conferences and it was smart scheduling done by the Falcons.
The SOS that will be used by the NCAA D-III selection committee has nothing to do (directly, that is) with any conference strength. Indirectly, yes. 1/3 of the SOS to be used is based on the Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage (OOWP) which is bolstered by a strong conference. Unless someone is doing some serious databasing of schedules and results and even more serious number crunching, we only have general informed guesses as to the SOS of teams, but no accurate idea of the SOS computed uusing the formula that will be used by the selection committee.
Messiah's Plan A is win the conference title and AQ. The concurrent Plan B involves beating teams like E-town, but hoping that otherwise E-town keeps on winning and secures a regional ranking by the NCAA committee thus helping Messiah's SOS and record vs. ranked opponents.
Quote from: Mr.Right on September 23, 2015, 04:16:00 PM
Messiah might not get an Pool C. It has nothing to do with if they are a better team than the results are showing. Many teams have this problem. It is all about the results and record v ranked teams, SOS, OWP,etc. They will not have played to many ranked teams and the ones that might be ranked they have lost to. CMU and Rowan. York will not be ranked if they lose 1 or 2 more. Miser might / might not. Lycoming should but if they go 0-3-0 against Oneonta, Roch and Messsiah they will not be ranked. NUmbers game babe..
BTW after Rowan was peaking my interest this afternoon I went to their website and they have a 1:20 youtube highlight of the Messiah game that they won 4-2. You tell me if that Messiah team looks like one's in the past. The 1st goal was weak defending and tackling as the defender dropped off so much the Rowan kid had a free shot, keeper might of gotten it. 2nd goal was an absolutely horrendous GK mistake, right thru his hands from 40 yards out. If I was betting on the game I would have been screaming that the GK was throwing the match. 3rd goal was a nice ball forward as Messiah most likely was pushing numbers forward and Rowan kid was in on GK 1v1. GK came to early and the kid chipped him. Horrible GK error. 4th goal was a deflection off a corner and a weak deflection at that.Total loss of concentration
Yes I get that. It is all numbers sir. And I said they aren't the Messiah of old...yet. Btw Camden over Misericordia 7-1......told ya so.
Regional Rankings w/updated records after last night's action. Won't know more until after the weekend as there are some big games coming up for these teams, but if rankings came out tomorrow there would be a lot of shifts already after the results from last night. This is the same ranking order but w/updated records!!!
Rank School Prev. W-L-T
1 Franklin & Marshall College 8-0-0 Beat Stevenson in 2OT (Yikes)
2 Eastern University 7-0-1 Beat ranked #12/22 Salisbury 1-0 on the road (Thumbs Up)
3 Drew University 6-1-1 Lost to TCNJ 3-1 (Haven't beaten any of the 2 good teams they have faced)
4 Gettysburg College 6-0-1 Beat Marymount 2-1 (Quietly undefeated)
5 Elizabethtown College 6-1-1 Tied Alvernia 0-0 (Losing the hype?)
6 Lycoming College 7-1-0 Beat Mt. Aloysius 2-0 on Monday (7 wins in a row---only loss to #14 Eastern in OT)
7 Messiah College 4-2-1 Beat York 1-0 on Tuesday (4 wins and 1 tie all shutouts, 2 losses give up 4 goals each game)
8 King's College 6-2-0 Lost 2-0 at home to Alfred (So much for being regionally ranked)
9 Dickinson College 5-2-0 Beat Mary Washington 3-1 (Next tough game isn't until October)
10 Cabrini College 6-1-2 Thrashed Rosemont 9-1 and beat Albright 3-2 in OT (Never know which team will show up)
Others:
Alvernia 3-1-4 Tied Etown 0-0 (Only loss in OT 1-0 to #3 F&M---Tied York, #14 Eastern, and Cabrini)
Misericordia 4-2-1 Lost 7-1 to Camden with Messiah next (Tough week for the Cougars)
Merchant Marine 6-2 Not sure about this team yet
Hood College 7-2 Beat Frostburg St. 2-1 (5 wins in a row and only gave up 1 goal during that streak)
Moravian 6-2 Next 4 games will define their season (Loss to Rowan 4-0)
Manhattanville 4-2-1 Next game vs Drew (Lost to Montclair St and Camden by 1 each)
Just looking at the recap on the Rowan - Messiah game....
It was Messiah's first loss at home since the upset by Neumann in the 2011 NCAA Tournament; 42 game run (39-0-3). Draws: vs Gettysburg (2015), vs Lyco in MAC Final (2013), vs Oneonta St. (2012).
2005 14 0 0
2006 10 1 1 Etown (L), York (D)
2007 13 0 0
2008 10 1 1 York (L), TCNJ (D)
2009 14 0 0
2010 10 1 0 Hobart
2011 10 1 0 Neumann
2012 14 0 1 Oneonta St
2013 11 0 1 Lycoming
2014 12 0 0
2015 2 1 1 Rowan (L), Gettysburg (D)
120 5 5
I watched the highlights from the Rowan game and I watched the whole game against CMU. Their goalie is a nightmare. Normally the goalie for Messiah never needs to touch the ball so I am sure this is unexpected for him to actually face shots. Surprised they couldn't bring in someone who can at least get in front of the ball. Makes me wonder how good West actually was but I think he was credible. As for this new one...not so sure.
In reference to F&M 2ot win over Stevenson... Messiah tied 0-0 there last year.
I would think Alvernia moves up to #9, but who knows...
Not quite sold on Lyco yet, but for Eastern to get a result at Salisbury is impressive. Looking at the Messiah game vs Gettysburg, it's hard not to slot them in at 3 (without going by records).
With King's loss, slide Dickinson and Cabrini up and insert Alvernia. I think Alvernia should really be #7 in the region with the 0-1 loss to F&M and W over Dickinson; Draws vs #2 Eastern, #4 Etown, #10 Cabrini).
Cabrini thrashed Rosemont, but so did Haverford (8-2), and Rutgers-Camden (9-0). The scheduling of that game could hurt all 3 of these teams later on down the line... Rosemont is 0-7-1 with 4 goals on the year. Their next game is at Eastern on 9/29, followed by a bunch of sub .500 programs, thus killing OOWP.
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on September 24, 2015, 11:18:50 AM
In reference to F&M 2ot win over Stevenson... Messiah tied 0-0 there last year.
I would think Alvernia moves up to #9, but who knows...
Not quite sold on Lyco yet, but for Eastern to get a result at Salisbury is impressive. Looking at the Messiah game vs Gettysburg, it's hard not to slot them in at 3 (without going by records).
With King's loss, slide Dickinson and Cabrini up and insert Alvernia. I think Alvernia should really be #7 in the region with the 0-1 loss to F&M and W over Dickinson; Draws vs #2 Eastern, #4 Etown, #10 Cabrini).
Yes Messiah did tie them their but F&M could have easily lost the game on multiple occasions. Don't think Stevenson had a sniff at the other half of the field last year so Messiah was never threatened. There is a difference between dominating the game and not scoring as to back and forth action and sneaking out with a win.
Shots were 24-7 in favor of F&M
Even on corners 5-5
Fouls 15-12 Stevenson
Both teams missed PKs
Shots 26-4 in favor of Messiah
Corners 7-0 in favor of Messiah
Fouls 17-9 Stevenson
Stevenson sat in against Messiah. Based off of the highlights on Youtube of the F&M game it looks like Stevenson was trying to create and get forward and had chances. Obviously not as many as F&M but thats 2 overtime scares this year for them.
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on September 24, 2015, 10:44:28 AM
Just looking at the recap on the Rowan - Messiah game....
It was Messiah's first loss at home since the upset by Neumann in the 2011 NCAA Tournament; 42 game run (39-0-3). Draws: vs Gettysburg (2015), vs Lyco in MAC Final (2013), vs Oneonta St. (2012).
2005 14 0 0
2006 10 1 1 Etown (L), York (D)
2007 13 0 0
2008 10 1 1 York (L), TCNJ (D)
2009 14 0 0
2010 10 1 0 Hobart
2011 10 1 0 Neumann
2012 14 0 1 Oneonta St
2013 11 0 1 Lycoming
2014 12 0 0
2015 2 1 1 Rowan (L), Gettysburg (D)
120 5 5
Lastguy, Mid-Atlantic or anyone else,
After reading my points about Rowan's 4 goals would you agree or disagree with me about each goal. Rowan has the youtube link on their website.
Mid-Atlantic,
I am curious now about Eastern as that was an impressive win v Salisbury and their resume is looking good right now. Would you know their style? Has anyone seen them this year?
Mr. Right,
I watched the youtube clip of Rowan. As I said the goalie struggles. He let in soft goals in the CMU game as well. One PK which isn't on him but the other 3 were all savable. One he front smothered in the 6 yard box for a routine save and it went through his legs and into the net. The other was a free kick from 40 yards out and he came to punch and missed it and it went in the net. The corner kick he was frozen and it was poor marking by Messiah. Similar to Rowan he probably could have saved at least 2 of those. Yes poor defending by Messiah as you said, but you also expect your goalie to bail you out on those shots.
As for Eastern, I have seen them play a couple times over the past few years. Same style each time. They play a 4-3-3 with two holding mids and look to connect through the midfield. They lost their best player from last year, Eric Giovagnoli, to graduation so I was curious to see how they would perform without his offensive presence. It seems that multiple players are stepping up for them. Multiple guys scoring and assisting. They aren't reliant on one guy like they were in the past with Giovagnoli.
This year's team is also more gritty from the few times I have seen them play. They stay in games, get shutouts (6/8), win on the road, and just find a way to win. It's hard to argue with that. I am interested to see what happens if they lose. Will they be the team that folds and crumbles? Or will it make them stronger? In the past if you look at their losses, when they lost, they lost badly. More for the 2013 year than 2014, but some of those same kids are still on the roster. But they could run the table this year with the conference they are in.
I would have liked to see them face Lycoming at this point in the season rather than the first game of the year. I think we would all be in for a treat. I did not watch the game when they played this year, but from the box score and from what I have heard, it looks like Lycoming dominated the game but just couldn't find a way to score. Eastern's only shot on goal was the game winner in OT.
Lycoming held the edge in shots 12-5. Corners was 6-5 for Eastern. Fouls 20-14 to Lycoming. From what the recaps state, Lycoming hit the post from close range with under 15 minutes to play. Might have ended the game if they go up 1-0 at that point. Then Eastern wins it in OT.
Overall, I am impressed with Eastern. Especially to go on the road to Lycoming and beat them where they hadn't lost since 2013(according to the recap). They have beat 2 very good teams on the road this year---Lycoming and Salisbury. I think they have earned their ranking, might be a little high, but they haven't slipped up yet like others have so it's hard to argue against them at this point. I think they will slip up eventually but end up winning their conference and getting the AQ. As for Lycoming I think the loss to Eastern is not a bad one by any means. There only blemish is a loss to the #14 team in the country in OT. Still lots to prove and lots of games to be played for both teams. Conference brings out the best in teams so it will be fun to watch everybody's progression from this region.
Ok thanks for the "know" about Eastern as I will try to catch one of their games on video if they continue this rampant pace.
This Messiah GK with all those mistakes against CMU and Rowan, I cannot imagine McCarty has kept starting him. Isn't their a back-up? NOTHING CAN BE MORE DE-MORALIZING to a team than a weak GK behind a good team.
Anytime and by the looks of it Weaver has been the goalie for them. The other goalie, Bell, started vs CMU then switched at half with Weaver. So he had faced the PK and gave up the one between his legs. But Weaver didn't impress in the 2nd half of CMU game or against Rowan.
Then that is a serious GK issue. McCarty had to know in 2014 that this is what he would be left with. His #1 priority had to be GK but I am guessing he did not think it was this BAD. I mean Rowan's 2nd goal could be shown on a Top 10 bloopers reel
Same for CMU's second or fourth goal. Seems like there aren't many elite goalies like we have seen in the past. The Stevenson keeper looked good in highlights against F&M but I do not know if that is an every game thing. they are 3-5-1. The Alvernia goalie has impressed me the most from what I have seen from teams on both sides of the MAC (Freedom and Commonwealth).
Any other good goalies this year that you know of?
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on September 24, 2015, 02:32:14 PM
Anytime and by the looks of it Weaver has been the goalie for them. The other goalie, Bell, started vs CMU then switched at half with Weaver. So he had faced the PK and gave up the one between his legs. But Weaver didn't impress in the 2nd half of CMU game or against Rowan.
You have that backwards. Weaver started versus Carnegie Mellon with Bell replacing him for the second half. Weaver let that tame ground shot from outside the area through his arms and legs for CMU's second goal, and was noticeably/demonstratively angry with himself and it's possible he got subbed out because it didn't appear he was going to be able to shake the howler off and be in the right frame of mind. Weaver did OK in the three home games that followed the Pittsburgh trip--nothing spectacular, but wasn't really required, but performed satisfactorily on the fairly routine situations in which he was called into action. Then the Rowan game reminded a bit more of the CMU game.
Bell is a freshman, so Weaver (a junior) was likely going to be the favorite for the job to open the season. Weaver had next to zero experience logging just 44 minutes as a freshman and a mere 10 as a sophomore. Despite little game action, he was in the team for two years and from training sessions the coaching staff must have had a feel for what level he could play at and would have been hoping that Bell would push for the starting job from the get-go. The big surprise for me was to see that Messiah is only carrying two goalkeepers this year. Rather unusual. One goes down with an injury that forces missed games and the team is in a very precarious situation. So not sure what happened both with the quality and quantity of goalkeeping, but it's an issue.
Well I know mostly New England teams but that's really not even the issue. I mean there is elite, great, good, average, decent and try a new sport. Messiah is begging for decent after looking at those highlights. Is there highlights of the CMU game? See I was going to say that when I saw CMU last year a couple times they were extremely organized defensively and held Brandeis at bay for the better part of 75-80 minutes but lacked some attacking prowess. When I saw they scored 4 goals against messiah I was shocked to say the least and I chalked it up to style change, impactful freshman and / or everyone played to the best of their capabilities. It looks like it was just dumb luck and got a taste of Messiah GK issues.
Finally, looked at the Rowan highlights from the game. I was curious to see if the shot for the second goal knuckled or dipped because live and on instant reply it appeared Weaver may have been fooled by it, and the Rowan video certainly makes it look like the shot made a turn in mid-flight. Unless that's an illusion, I'm not sure it's fair to be too harsh on Weaver.
Ok I will back off for now but you can count on me tuning into the Messiah live feed vs Misericordia at 7pm. This will be my 1st Messiah game this year so maybe I can get a better feel for what is going on. Actually, I saw the 2nd half of the York match and did not notice any issues with Messiah's keeper, in fact he made one pretty good save
CMU against Messiah was really all about 1 player...William Webb.
Other than Webb, CMU is a good, not great team.
Box score has it wrong then because it says Bell started the game. Either way poor performance by the keepers. Doubt Misericordia will get a shot after losing 7-1 to Camden. Might wanna wait to watch the Etown game as that will be a high paced back and forth game.
This seems to be the first year the CC is not dominating the Mid-Atlantic region. It is nice to see Eastern, Lyco, Alvernia and some other teams starting to get the respect.
Yes I agree. They probably deserved more recognition last year but hopefully it pays off for them this year. Long way to go yet.
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on September 24, 2015, 06:09:01 PM
Box score has it wrong then because it says Bell started the game. Either way poor performance by the keepers. Doubt Misericordia will get a shot after losing 7-1 to Camden. Might wanna wait to watch the Etown game as that will be a high paced back and forth game.
http://gomessiah.com/boxscore.aspx?path=msoc&id=4365#individual-stats - look at list of starters, list of substitutes
http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/msoc/2015-16/boxscores/20150905_k61t.xml - look for the asterisk indicating starter
Yes my mistake. I saw that Bell got the loss when I skimmed over it. Thanks for pointing that out. Still doesn't change the fact that both keepers played poorly to put it nicely.
The game I tuned into tonight was Lycoming at UR. Lycoming and Rochester drew 0-0. An impressive performance by Lycoming and a good result for a young team on the road. They out shot Rochester 15-9. Lycoming had 14 corner kicks. Rochester had 0 corner kicks. Lycoming with the better of the possession throughout the game and was the more dangerous and dominit team start to finish. Had a couple sitters that didn't go their way. Didn't give up any threatening chances defensively. One of the most physical games I have seen in a while. Rochester still a good side but look down from previous years. Would not want to play either team come tournament time. I can see both making a push in NCAA's this year.
Messiah takes down Misericordia 4-1.
Eastern takes down Albrigt 4-1.
Gettysburg with a nice 2-0 win over Muhlenberg.
Alvernia drops a tough game to Desales 2-1.
Kings bounces back with a 1-0 win vs a solid Hood team. Demich missed a PK in the 83rd minute for Hood.
Drew beats Manhatanville 1-0.
Etown over Juniata 4-1.
York falls to Salisbury 2-0. Tough start to the season for the Spartans.
Regional Ranking Predictions:
1. F&M 9-0
2. Eastern 8-0-1
3. Gettysburg 7-0-1
T4. Elizabethtown 7-1-1
T4. Lycoming 7-1-1
6. Drew 7-1-1
7. Messiah 5-2-1
8. Dickinson 5-2-1
9. Cabrini 6-1-2
10. Merchant Marine 7-2
Dropping Out: Kings 7-2
Surprised with the DSU-Alvernia result...
With Dickinson drawing vs Ursinus, I'd have them below Cabrini. King's might still be ranked with Alfred at 6-1-2.
Agree with every slot 1-7, except I'd have Lyco #5 (not tied with E-town, although I like your prediction).
8. Cabrini
9. Dickinson
10. King's
---------------
11. Merchant Marine
Yes very surprised by the Desales/Alvernia result.
The tie vs Ursinus might haunt Dickinson. That's an extremely poor result.
Rank School Prev. W-L-T
1 Franklin & Marshall College
DA Stevenson University 1-0; DA Washington College (Md.) 1-0; 1 9-0-0
2 Eastern University
DA Salisbury University 1-0; DA Albright College 4-1; 2 8-0-1
3 Gettysburg College
DH Marymount University 2-1; DA Muhlenberg College 2-0; 4 7-0-1
4 Elizabethtown College
TA Alvernia University 0-0; DA Juniata College 4-1; 5 7-1-1
5 Lycoming College
DA Mount Aloysius College 2-0; TA University of Rochester 0-0; 6 7-1-1
6 Drew University
LA The College of New Jersey 1-3; DH Manhattanville College 1-0; 3 7-1-1
7 Messiah College
DA York College (Pa.) 1-0; DH Misericordia University 4-1; 7 5-2-1
8 Cabrini College
DA Albright College 3-2; 10 5-1-2
9 Dickinson College
DA University Of Mary Washington 3-1; TA Ursinus College 2-2; 9 5-2-1
10 United States Merchant Marine Academy
DH New York University 4-1; DA Goucher College 2-0; NR 7-2-0
With all the rain in the forecast, several mid-atlantic match-ups could be postponed through the weekend.
Game to watch tomorrow:
Messiah @ Elizabethtown. This is one of the great D3 rivalries. This could be a defining moment for both teams this season. I believe Etown has a grass field, so if this game is played tomorrow, field conditions could play a considerable role.
Games were postponed all throughout the region yesterday for all sports. Today won't be much better for teams that have grass fields. If anything it might be worse. It has been raining since yesterday morning all throughout PA and isn't set to stop until this afternoon. Will be interested to see how that affects the style of play for both teams in regards to traction, slipping, skipping of shots and passes, etc.
Not supposed too get much in the way of rain today it doesn't seem. Quality of the field drainage to deal with last night's rain will be the key.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/weather-radar
Looks like it's out of the Harrisburg region by 11am today. Etown historically has thicker grass so it might soak it up better than Messiah's grass would.
Regional Games Today:
Dickinson at McDaniel
F&M vs Ursinus
Hood at Moravian
York at Leb Val
Wilkes at Scranton
Misericordia at Juniata
Alvernia at Immaculata
Arcadia at Valley Forge
Haverford at Washington College
PSU-Harrisburg at Susquehanna
Messiah at Etown***
Hopkins at Gettysburg***
Kings at PSU-Altoona
Muhlenberg at Swat
***Notable MUST WATCH games***
Massey Ratings-Top 10
4. F&M 9-0
14. Eastern 9-0-1
16. Messiah 5-2-1
19. Gettysburg 7-0-1
30. Lycoming 7-1-1
35. Etown 7-1-1
36. Haverford 5-3
56. Dickinson 5-2-1
57. Drew 8-1-1
82. Manhattanville 5-3-1
I find the Massey Ratings to be consistently on-point...
http://d3soccer.yuku.com/topic/1293/MARSHMALLOW-CUP-2010-Etown-at-Messiah-Saturday-Oct-30?page=1#.VgwO7skpDec
Just some of the stats put together by FWeasy... always well done.
2010: "Once the majority of the stands were cleared and the field was cleared they headed out with a roll of garbage bags and 2 leaf blowers and blew all the mallows into one big pile and then bagged them. It took them about a half hour but with the 15-20 person crew they had it well under control."
MessiahProf: 6/15/11
incoming class: According to those in the know, this particular class does indeed have the potential to be the greatest single class we've ever had. I stress that this is not my opinion; I haven't seen any of these boys play yet. It's the assessment of someone who has followed Messiah for decades and someone with a deep knowledge of the game--not Coach McCarty, whose views I would not repeat here, but someone of comparable credibility.
We'll have to see what happens. There is no substitute for actually playing the games against real collegiate opponents. But, I'm certainly looking forward to it. There are some mighty big shoes to fill.
Kind of late to be asking, but is anyone else on here going to be at the Marshmallow Bowl?
Quote from: Flying Weasel on September 30, 2015, 05:50:48 PM
Kind of late to be asking, but is anyone else on here going to be at the Marshmallow Bowl?
FW,
Can you give us a quick summary of the action from last night? Wasn't able to watch. I tuned into the F&M game but then had some errands I had to run. A brief summary would be great! Thanks.
What a game last night in the marshmallow bowl...and the goal to win it - unreal finish from top of the box upper 90 by Waso. This kid is the real deal. He gave fits to the Messiah defense all night. Although he is a freshman - I would still consider throwing his name in the mix of player of the year. He is a special player that doesn't come along very often.
To be fair it was the tale of 2 halves. First half - Etown had the upper hand and didn't put their chances away (had one cleared off the line off a corner kick) Messiah had a couple chances but nothing major. The goal for Etown was just great individual talent to spin the center back and then ping a left foot laser upper 90 from 20-25 out. Etown possessed the ball well in the first half which was good to see them put Messiah on their heels a bit. You did not see the Messiah backs making too many runs forward/overlap the wingers as they typically do, which showed they were concerned with Etown's speed up top.
Second half - Messiah put the pressure on and carried most of the possesion with Etown still getting a couple chances, but again didn't finish. Messiah had several great opportunities to score but they were just missing on the final pass or just missing on shots and were called off-side several times. The last 20 minutes it was all Messiah, but again didn't connect on those final balls that people are used to seeing Messiah connect. A lack of a target forward was very apparent last night for Messiah - it was extremely rare that Messiah played into their forwards feet - most of the time it was balls down the line into the channels with good runs and then looking to serve the ball in but unfortunately they did not get the runners in the box to get on the end of things.
Overall it was a great game to watch and great to see Etown come out on top after all these years!
One side note that really surprised me last night and maybe some Messiah fans can answer this - but I was extremely surprised at the lack of Messiah fans at the game (and if they were there, I am even more surprised at their lack of noise). The place was packed but did not see many Messiah fans and the few that were there left with 5 minutes left (not all of them). Is this a changing of times that the fans are not as supportive this year? I heard that at the Rowan game most of the crowd left after the 4th goal went in. I just expected a better Messiah supporters section last night.
Before Last Night's Games-Massey Ratings:
4. F&M 9-0
14. Eastern 9-0-1
16. Messiah 5-2-1
19. Gettysburg 7-0-1
30. Lycoming 7-1-1
35. Etown 7-1-1
36. Haverford 5-3
56. Dickinson 5-2-1
57. Drew 8-1-1
82. Manhattanville 5-3-1
After Last Night's Games-Massey Ratings:
4. F&M 10-0-0
14. Eastern 9-0-1
24. Etown 8-1-1
29. Haverford 6-3-0
30. Lycoming 7-1-1
31. Messiah 5-3-1
36. Gettysburg 7-1-1
52. Dickinson 6-2-1
56. Drew 8-1-1
67. John Hopkins 6-3-1
igtf's recap does the game justice, I think. My attention was at times diverted from the game as I had my two pre-school children who were there more for the marshmallows than the game. In short, I would have called the first half 50-50 in many ways, but with E-town being much more dangerous with their 50%, if that makes sense. Second half tilted significantly towards Messiah, and from the 60th to 85th minute (roughly) the Falcons actually looked pretty good and an equalizer seemed certain to come. A 1-1 tie would have been a fair result (heck, I'm not even sure E-town could have had too many complaints with a 2-1 loss given the second half), but alas Messiah did not find the back of the net despite banging on the door numerous times.
Overall the crowd (for both sides) was late in arriving. Stands fairly empty just 20 minutes to kick-off. It is a weeknight game now and that will always make a difference in attendance versus Saturday games. And it was cool, damp, and, as often is the case at E-town's field, windy, all coming on the heals of a rainy overnight and dreary day, so weather was not the most inviting. My impression over the past several years is that the Messiah fans are not as rowdy and vocal as they may have been for a stretch of years (and that mostly comes down to the students as you're not expecting the parents, families, community, etc. to be providing the bulk of the atmosphere). Messiah deservedly earned a reputation for travelling in numbers to aways games, especially in the tournament, but I don't think they ever were really known for being especially raucous. Overall, I also was disappointed with the atmosphere of the game (not as tense or electric or antagonistic as "back in the day"), but I'm not a boisterous fan myself.
#2 Waso for E-town is a dynamic player with his speed and quickness. He also has a pretty darn good shot from distance for a player of his size. His goal was from outside the area and he had a solid rip from ever further out in the second half. Messiah did better containing him in the second half, but that was partially (largely?) down to Messiah controlling possession more in the second half. Messiah's back line does not have tremendous speed so they are going to be vulnerable at times for that reason alone. And organizationally they are not working that well as a unit. There is no Carter Robbins, JD Binger, Aaron Faro level player and leader at centerback (Kyne's a solid player, but simply not in their class) and that doesn't help things. And all that is more critical and more evident when your midfield and attack are not maintaining possession and controlling games like the Falcons typically have been able to do over the past 15 years. A drop-off was expected given the class that graduated, a class that was not only very talented (talent can usually be replaced and I think the incoming class brings a lot of it) and experienced (impossible to immediately replace that with new starters and freshmen), but they were also gamers. Fight, determination, composure under pressure, clutch, etc. It was a class full of gamers, clutch players--not just one or two, but four or five. This year's squad, to my eyes, is lacking in that department at this point in time. So you add that deficiency to subpar individual execution and an overall lack of cohesion (two things evident even in Messiah's wins this year) and the result is that Messiah isn't controlling games (at least not to the same lopsided degree as became normal) and is not as dangerous or effective in possession. And that means opponents spend less time on their heels expending all their energy defensively and they see more of the ball (and further up the field and with more energy available) and they encounter a defense that is beatable and get encouraged and start believing while Messiah's players perhaps start feeling the weight of expectations which can lead to trying to do too much or playing nervous and making unforced errors, etc. Goalkeeping and the target/center forward are other specific issues, but if everything else is clicking, goalkeeping becomes less crucial when you're conceding less possession, less shots, and less SOGs and Messiah has proven in the past that it can win and win titles without a natural and completely effective center forward.
Messiah is a good, but not great, team at the moment. Talented. Lacking experience and seemingly leadership and gamers. Right now, they look like a lot of other teams out there. The difference between them and most of those other teams, is (a) they have a coaching staff who have been there (as players and coaches) and know firsthand what they're reaching for, what a championship squad looks like, trains like, plays like, etc., (b) they probably have more and better talent to work with and thus greater potential to go from good to better to great, (c) with the team's history and accompanying expectations, which can be a double-edged sword as I alluded to, there's no chance of being satisfied with being good, with striving for anything less than a national title, and (d) the strong unity and botherhood of the team and the genuine belief that success on the field is of secondary importance, all grounded in a common Christain faith and commitment to sacrifice, service, and accountability, means much less chance (never want to say no chance) that team cancers (in-fighting, sefishness, etc.) will arise.
The Faclons are facing a growing challenge. Time will tell how they do (or don't) rise to that challenge this season and beyond. Ohio Wesleyan won the 1998 title with 6 losses. Bethany won the 1994 title with 5 losses and four ties. So, who knows what can yet happen this season. The focus has to be the get better and improve in all areas game-by-game. Then, a month from now, take care of business in the conference playoffs. It's too early to have a solid feel for the at-large picture, but chances for an at-large berth have certainly shrunk and become increasingly unlikely. Even winning out until a loss in the conference final could be too little for them as they'll be lacking wins vs. ranked teams with a mediocre SOS. But the team has to take things a game at a time and work towards becoming a team that no one wants to face in November. The growing pains of a re-building project have been worse then some (many) expected, but still too early to write this team off.
EXCELLENT RECAP....Finally, a Messiah fan who allows himself to be able to criticize his own team. It has been my experience that Messiah fans in general on this board will not under any circumstance allow themselves to be critical of their beloved Falcons. It is this type of posting that attracts people to this site and also engages more people to join in and post. Thank you
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 01, 2015, 12:25:30 PM
EXCELLENT RECAP....Finally, a Messiah fan who allows himself to be able to criticize his own team. It has been my experience that Messiah fans in general on this board will not under any circumstance allow themselves to be critical of their beloved Falcons. It is this type of posting that attracts people to this site and also engages more people to join in and post. Thank you
To perhaps be fair to the Messiah faithful...10 National Championships in the past 15 years...there doesn't seem like there was much to be critical about. This program is a dynasty...who's going to be critical of that? But can't come down too hard on Falcon fans without also mentioning that NESCAC fans are very similar in their defense of their conference...rarely critical, especially when comparing to other conferences. But a high level of pride in a team or conference is OK (especially when backed up with results)...that just makes all these rantings and ravings a bit more interesting and fun.
But that being said, I think FW's analysis seems to be, to borrow a phrase...pretty "fair and balanced". It's been a different kind of season for the Falcons so far, and FW delivered some insightful analysis around the situation...regardless if I agree with all points. And while pointing out areas he feels needs improvement he also gave plenty of room for the ship to get back on course come crunch time. I wouldn't count Messiah out yet, just like I wouldn't count Tufts (or any of the other top NESCAC contenders) out yet either. I too thought it was a good post worth reading.
Conference play starts for most of the teams in this region and some are continuing the start from last week. Here are some of the match-ups for the weekend slate along with some must see games that will have ***, **, or * next to it (based off level of importance and hype ;D).
Stevenson at Arcadia
Albright at Lycoming*
Messiah at Hood**
Goucher at Alvernia
Eastern at Manhattanville***
FDU at Wilkes
Desales at Kings
Leb Val at Widener
Del Val at Misericordia
Catholic vs Merchant Marine*
Drew vs Susquehanna**
Moravian vs ETown
Swat at Ursinus
McDaniel at Wash. College
Hopkins at Dickinson***
Haverford at Gettysburg***
Cabrini at Centenary
G. Mercy at Marywood
Immaculata at Neumann
Summit vs Cairn
Keystone at Rosemont
Not a lot of big clashes just yet, but the Centennial offers some pivotal games for jockeying at the top of the CC.
I believe Eastern and Manhattanville is the game of the weekend to watch. After that I would say either Hopkins vs Dickinson or Haverford at Gettysburg. Also keep an eye on Messiah at Hood as they are off to an 8-3 start and their forward has 15 goals so far this year. Lycoming will be on everyone's radar after all the buzz with the struggles of Messiah. They host a struggling Albright team who all but ruined Lycoming's at-large bid dreams last year. This was the only other team they lost to besides Messiah(2x) all of last year. Out of the Landmark Conference I think Merchant Marine vs Catholic will be a must see. Also interested in Susquehanna vs Drew. Susquehanna has bounced back nicely after a horrendous season a year ago. Drew is a surprise in my book at 8-1-1 so it should be a good clash.
Glad that conference play is finally here! The real action starts now and I think people underestimate how tough conference games are no matter how strong or weak a conference may look. That's something to keep in consideration as these teams gear up to run the gauntlet.
How does the Centennial conference tournament work? Is it 6 or 8 teams? or is it Top 4 ?
I HATE the Top 4 that the Liberty League does, as it makes for some meaningless games at the end of the season and you are really not rewarding a team for winning the regular season.
I like the Nescac tournament. 11 team league and they play a 8 team tournament. They used to play a 7 team tournament and give the #1 seed a BYE into Semi's. Coaches complained and they moved it to 8.
I REALLY like the SUNYAC. They take 6 teams in a 10 team league I believe. Top 2 get a BYE. The others play in #3 v #6 and #4 v #5..This I really like because you reward the Top 2 teams in the Regular Season with bye's into the Semi's. Makes for intriguing games up to the end of the regular season because teams are jockeying to get into the Top 2 and also teams are jockeying to even make the playoffs
The Centennial has been doing a 5-team playoff with a mid-week #5 at #4 game in advance of the semis and final hosted by the #1 seed on the weekend.
Mr.Right,
NJAC does the same thing as SUNYAC. Seed one plays the lowest of 3v6, 4v5 winner.
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 02, 2015, 02:51:31 PMI HATE the Top 4 that the Liberty League does, as it makes for some meaningless games at the end of the season and you are really not rewarding a team for winning the regular season.
I like the Nescac tournament. 11 team league and they play a 8 team tournament. They used to play a 7 team tournament and give the #1 seed a BYE into Semi's. Coaches complained and they moved it to 8.
I REALLY like the SUNYAC. They take 6 teams in a 10 team league I believe. Top 2 get a BYE. The others play in #3 v #6 and #4 v #5..This I really like because you reward the Top 2 teams in the Regular Season with bye's into the Semi's. Makes for intriguing games up to the end of the regular season because teams are jockeying to get into the Top 2 and also teams are jockeying to even make the playoffs
Not sure I follow your logic. You HATE a 4-team playoff because it doesn't reward a team for winning the regular season, but you like an 8-team playoff? Isn't a 8-team playoff even less a reward for winning the regular season? Now you're asking the winningest team to win three successive single-elimination games, the first and perhaps second against teams whose only hope for NCAA action rests on a conference tournament run. At least with 4 teams, the #1 seed is only asked to confirm their superiority twice, not three times. In general, doesn't fewer playoff spots = higher reward for regular season performance? Or better stated, isn't fewer single-elimination games that a #1 seed has to survive to their advantage? The highest reward you could give a regular season champ is to give him the AQ and forego a tournament, i.e. one playoff spot.
Now the six-team playoff is interesting because it forces the #3 thru #6 seeds to play an extra game over the #1 and #2 seeds, but whether that provides any additonal advantage for the #1 seed versus a 4-team playoff isn't clear. I guess you could argue that come the end of the season, getting to rest while your next opponent needs to play a do-or-die game, is an advantage. But how often have we seen the teams that get byes in the first round of the NCAA tournament then struggle and/or get upset in their opener in round two? So having a bye isn't necessarily an advantage, going by that.
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 02, 2015, 03:11:52 PM
Mr.Right,
NJAC does the same thing as SUNYAC. Seed one plays the lowest of 3v6, 4v5 winner.
Yes I think this is the best way to do it. Otherwise these other leagues are only really rewarding the winner of the regular season with Home field advantage for the tournament. I am not minimizing the home field as that can be VERY important but I just feel somehow the regular season champ should get another somewhat small reward besides a trophy and home field. Just my take on it.
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 02, 2015, 03:11:52 PMNJAC does the same thing as SUNYAC. Seed one plays the lowest of 3v6, 4v5 winner.
I'm pretty sure that in the NJAC, the #1 seed plays the winner of the 4v5 game and the #2 seed playes the winner of the 3v6 game, no matter the results. That is, fixed brackets with no reseeding/rebracketing if the #6 and #4 seeds win. So the #1 seed could pay the #4 seed, while the #2 seed gets the presumedly easier #6 seed.
The NESCAC rebrackets after the quarterfinals so the top remaining seed plays the lowest remaining seed. I think the NESCAC, CSAC, and NACC are the only conferences to do rebracketing.
Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 02, 2015, 03:02:06 PM
The Centennial has been doing a 5-team playoff with a mid-week #5 at #4 game in advance of the semis and final hosted by the #1 seed on the weekend.
The Newmac does or used to do something similar to this but with the Centennial being so competitive almost like the Nescac, it is almost a bit unfair that #6 or even #7 does not get a chance to compete for the AQ
Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 02, 2015, 03:16:32 PM
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 02, 2015, 02:51:31 PMI HATE the Top 4 that the Liberty League does, as it makes for some meaningless games at the end of the season and you are really not rewarding a team for winning the regular season.
I like the Nescac tournament. 11 team league and they play a 8 team tournament. They used to play a 7 team tournament and give the #1 seed a BYE into Semi's. Coaches complained and they moved it to 8.
I REALLY like the SUNYAC. They take 6 teams in a 10 team league I believe. Top 2 get a BYE. The others play in #3 v #6 and #4 v #5..This I really like because you reward the Top 2 teams in the Regular Season with bye's into the Semi's. Makes for intriguing games up to the end of the regular season because teams are jockeying to get into the Top 2 and also teams are jockeying to even make the playoffs
Not sure I follow your logic. You HATE a 4-team playoff because it doesn't reward a team for winning the regular season, but you like an 8-team playoff? Isn't a 8-team playoff even less a reward for winning the regular season? Now you're asking the winningest team to win three successive single-elimination games, the first and perhaps second against teams whose only hope for NCAA action rests on a conference tournament run. At least with 4 teams, the #1 seed is only asked to confirm their superiority twice, not three times. In general, doesn't fewer playoff spots = higher reward for regular season performance? Or better stated, isn't fewer single-elimination games that a #1 seed has to survive to their advantage? The highest reward you could give a regular season champ is to give him the AQ and forego a tournament, i.e. one playoff spot.
Now the six-team playoff is interesting because it forces the #3 thru #6 seeds to play an extra game over the #1 and #2 seeds, but whether that provides any additonal advantage for the #1 seed versus a 4-team playoff isn't clear. I guess you could argue that come the end of the season, getting to rest while your next opponent needs to play a do-or-die game, is an advantage. But how often have we seen the teams that get byes in the first round of the NCAA tournament then struggle and/or get upset in their opener in round two? So having a bye isn't necessarily an advantage, going by that.
Nescac and Centennial have more teams therefore an 8 team playoff is sufficient. The Liberty League I HATE because with the addition of RIT and Bard there are enough teams in the league to do a 6 team playoff or your 4v5 against the #1. My gripe is that the LL has enough teams now that the format should change
QuoteI HATE the Top 4 that the Liberty League does, as it makes for some meaningless games at the end of the season and
you are really not rewarding a team for winning the regular season.
Quotethese other leagues are only really rewarding the winner of the regular season with Home field advantage for the tournament.
I am not minimizing the home field as that can be VERY important but I just feel somehow the regular season champ should get
another somewhat small reward besides a trophy and home field.
Quote. . . it is almost a bit unfair that #6 or even #7 does not get a chance to compete for the AQ
Quote. . . there are enough teams in the league to do a 6 team playoff or your 4v5 against the #1
OK, let me take one stab at some clarification because you got me spun around and confused along the way . . .
- Your are concerned about giving more teams a shot at knocking off the regualr season champ and taking the AQ.
- Your are concerned about rewarding the regular season champ with something more than just homefield advantage (what/how exactly I didn't follow and don't want to venture a guess).
The two aren't mutually exclusive, but they are somewhat at odds, aren't they? What exactly is the additional reward you are desiring for the regular season champ?
FW, I'll take a shot at this, and what Mr.Right is saying makes total sense to me.
First of all, I would bet he is mainly talking about very competitive conferences and he thinks the regular season champ should be rewarded, with either an automatic bid or a real advantage in the conference tourney. He also thinks in conferences where 5-6 teams are very even and arguably quite good that teams #5 and #6 should have a shot at winning an AQ and thus should be included in the conference tourney. I would venture to guess he might vote for TWO AQs....one for the regular season champ and one for the tourney champ, and there are conferences like the NESCAC, NJAC, Centennial, etc where I would agree with that. This year that might apply to the NCAC as well. An issue would be for the conferences on the border who won't have 4-5 really strong teams every year and wouldn't necessarily deserve two bids every year, but there are probably 2-3 conferences where this might make sense.
Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 02, 2015, 04:57:00 PM
QuoteI HATE the Top 4 that the Liberty League does, as it makes for some meaningless games at the end of the season and
you are really not rewarding a team for winning the regular season.
Quotethese other leagues are only really rewarding the winner of the regular season with Home field advantage for the tournament.
I am not minimizing the home field as that can be VERY important but I just feel somehow the regular season champ should get
another somewhat small reward besides a trophy and home field.
Quote. . . it is almost a bit unfair that #6 or even #7 does not get a chance to compete for the AQ
Quote. . . there are enough teams in the league to do a 6 team playoff or your 4v5 against the #1
OK, let me take one stab at some clarification because you got me spun around and confused along the way . . .
- Your are concerned about giving more teams a shot at knocking off the regualr season champ and taking the AQ.
- Your are concerned about rewarding the regular season champ with something more than just homefield advantage (what/how exactly I didn't follow and don't want to venture a guess).
The two aren't mutually exclusive, but they are somewhat at odds, aren't they? What exactly is the additional reward you are desiring for the regular season champ?
NCAC and Weasel,
I didn't mean to that extreme...I do not want to change the format of NCAA requirements to get into the tournament. The current format is fine with the AQ's and the 19 or so Pool C's. Each conference getting the AQ and then worthy at-large teams. My whole point was conference tournaments that was all not NCAA tournament eligibility. I also was not making a point of the top 5-10 conferences getting both the regular season champion and tournament champion getting bids. That would be impossible legislation to pass and totally unrealistic because you cannot possibly determine which conferences would be worthy of that,
Anyway, my point was that all conferences with 6 or members should REWARD the Regular season champion with a free pass into the conference tournament semi's as a kind of incentive to win it. I also feel in leagues like the Liberty and Centennial that the #6 and even the #7 seeds should have a shot to get the AQ. In those two leagues like the Nescac,UAA,NJAC,NCAC,etc there is not much difference between the #5 and #7 seeds. Give most teams in each league a fighting chance while also rewarding the regular season champion
Got ya. By expanding from a 4- to 6-team playoff, you both give more teams a chance at the AQ and create an advantage/reward for finishing top two in the regular season versus finishing 3rd thru 6th.
Well, not that it means anything, but I'll go on record to say that the regular season winner of the NESCAC, NJAC, Centennial, SUNYAC, Liberty, ODAC, NCAC, etc should get an AQ. A full season's body of work should outweigh a one and done conference tournament. Either 2 AQs or give the AQ to the regular season winner. The NWC (Pac NW) has it right.
Quote from: NCAC New England on October 02, 2015, 10:27:34 PM
Well, not that it means anything, but I'll go on record to say that the regular season winner of the NESCAC, NJAC, Centennial, SUNYAC, Liberty, ODAC, NCAC, etc should get an AQ. A full season's body of work should outweigh a one and done conference tournament. Either 2 AQs or give the AQ to the regular season winner. The NWC (Pac NW) has it right.
I definitely agree with this..on the premise of the whole body of work. For example, a team could win the regular season and suffer injuries at the end , then get beat in the playoffs....
Regional Ranking Predictions:
1. F&M 10-0-0
2. Eastern 10-0-1
3. ETown 9-1-1
4. Lycoming 8-1-1
5. Drew 8-1-2
6. Gettysburg 7-2-1
7. Haverford 7-3-0
8. Dickinson 6-2-2
9. Cabrini 7-1-2
10. John Hopkins 6-3-2
Dropping Out: Merchant Marine 8-3, Messiah 6-3-1
RV: Susquehanna 6-3-2, Kings 9-2, Alvernia 5-2-4
Messiah will still be there around 8 to 10.
F&M
Eastern
E-town
Lycoming
Drew
Cabrini
Dickinson
Haverford
Gettysburg
Messiah
Yes you are right probably ahead of Hopkins.
Rank School Prev. W-L-T
1 Franklin & Marshall College
DH Ursinus College 2-1; 1 10-0-0
2 Eastern University
DH Rosemont College 2-0; DA Manhattanville College 2-1; 2 10-0-1
3 Elizabethtown College
DH Messiah College 1-0; DH Moravian College 3-0; 4 9-1-1
4 Lycoming College
DH Albright College 4-0; 5 8-1-1
5 Drew University
DH New York University 1-0; TA Susquehanna University 0-0; 6 8-1-2
6 Cabrini College
DA Centenary College (N.J.) 1-0; 8 6-1-2
7 Dickinson College
DA McDaniel College 1-0; TH Johns Hopkins University 1-1; 9 6-2-2
8 Messiah College
LA Elizabethtown College 0-1; DA Hood College 4-1; 7 6-3-1
9 Haverford College
DA Washington College (Md.) 2-0; DA Gettysburg College 4-3; NR 7-3-0
10 Gettysburg College
LH Johns Hopkins University 1-2; LH Haverford College 3-4; 3 7-2-1
http://www.nscaa.com/rankings/4556
Here's the link for the Oct. 6th regional rankings.
NCAA Regional Rankings Projection:
1) F&M
2) E-town
3) Haverford
4) Messiah
5) Lycoming
6) Merchant Marine
7) Dickinson
8) JHU
----------------------------
9) Alvernia
10) Eastern
11) Drew
12) Kings
13) Gettysburg
14) Cabrini
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 06, 2015, 03:36:24 PM
NCAA Regional Rankings Projection:
1) F&M
2) E-town
3) Haverford
4) Messiah
5) Lycoming
6) Merchant Marine
7) Dickinson
8) JHU
----------------------------
9) Alvernia
10) Eastern
11) Drew
12) Kings
13) Gettysburg
14) Cabrini
What is this for? End of year projection? or for the first NCAA ranking? And when does that come out? And Eastern at 10...so if they don't win their conference and lose 1 game all year say conference final you wouldn't have them with an at-large bid?
Not questioning you just clarifying :)
These would be my NCAA Regional projections for the first release. The Centennial dominates the OWP - OOWP criteria. Depends how the numbers are crunched. They do have 2 wins over regionally ranked teams (Salisbury and Lycoming), but both of those schools also have weak SOS. Last year Eastern was 15-3 heading into the MACF playoffs and lost to King's, finished 15-4 and missed out on NCAAs.
Right and they were probably behind Lycoming last year who was 15-3-3 and also lost in conference finals, but to Messiah, not the same caliber as Kings. ;) Will be interesting to see it all pan out!
A look around the region tonight...
Messiah comes back from 2 down to beat Leb Val 4-2.
Arcadia draws Alvernia 0-0 on the road. This is the game that I tuned into tonight. Pretty even and competitive match. Arcadia with the better of play but pretty split all game. Arcadia 14-8 favor in shots. Tough, hard fought conference game for these teams. Alvernia can't afford to keep racking up ties if they want any sniff at an at large bid. Their dream of that might already be over.
Lycoming beats Stevenson on the road 5-0. All 5 goals coming with 10 men after a red card in the 15th minute.
Hood downed Juniata 3-0 in non-conference action as Demich added 2 more goals to his tally this year putting him at 17 total and counting.
Widener puts a beating on Albright 7-0.
Keystone wins a tight game in OT 2-1 over Summit to keep their CSAC playoff hopes alive.
Wilkes downs McDaniel 2-1 after trailing early.
I tuned in to the Messiah game at an intermission of the Brandeis v MIT game. I happened to catch Lebanon Valley's 2nd goal which was an absolute disasterous GK'ing blunder AGAIN by the Messiah GK. The kid hit a shot from 35 yrds out and the GK had like his feet stuck in mud. Didn't move and then it might have gone in over his head or in between his hands I couldn't quite see...No doubt Messiah has a strong 10 but with that keeper they can win the AQ all they want they are not going very far in November. Maybe they would be better off playing with a keeper / sweeper like Rene Higueta used to do for Colombia in the 1990 World Cup. Except instead of these 2 stiffs in net use an actual field player and just try to keep possession.
Yes goalies seem to be hard to find these days...good goalies that is.
NCAA Regional Rankings Projection:
1) F&M
2) Elizabethtown
3) Eastern
4) Haverford
5) Messiah
6) Lycoming
7) Merchant Marine
8) Dickinson
--------------------
9) JHU
10) Alvernia
11) Drew
12) Kings
13) Gettysburg
14) Cabrini
Screwed up my calculation... Eastern will be ranked
Did anybody watch the Lycoming at Stevenson or Leb Val at Messiah games last night? I was tuned into Arcadia at Alvernia so was hoping for a brief summary on both those games. Recaps always tend to be bias if you read both schools recaps.
From the box score and recap of Lycoming vs Stevenson it says Lycoming got a red card in the 15th minute when it was still 0-0. So they scored 5 goals in the next 75 minutes a man down. Is Stevenson that bad or is Lycoming that good or a mix of both? I can't imagine Stevenson is that poor considering that they could have/almost upset top ranked F&M not too long ago. If anyone watched please provide some info on this game please. Box Score below:
Game Stats LYCOM STE
Goals 5 0
Shots 23 4
Shots on Goal 13 2
Saves 2 8
Corners 7 1
Offsides 2 0
Fouls 11 12
As for Leb Val at Messiah, the Falcons surrendered 2 goals before scoring 4 unanswered in the final 30. The box score below is favored to Messiah as expected but LVC scoring 2 goals on 6 shots with only 2 SOG has to be concerning? I mean Messiah never gives up shots but when they do they never use to go in or be close...to go down 2-0 to that team has to be concerning. Any Falcon fans out their watch the game? Any thoughts?
1 2 T
SHOTS
LVCMS 3 3 6 (2)
MESSM 13 21 34 (11)
SAVES
LVCMS 3 4 7
MESSM 0 0 0
CORNER KICKS
LVCMS 0 2 2
MESSM 8 7 15
OFFSIDES
LVCMS 0 1 1
MESSM 1 2 3
Guess nobody tuned into either of these games above?
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 07, 2015, 10:37:50 AM
NCAA Regional Rankings Projection:
1) F&M
2) Elizabethtown
3) Eastern
4) Haverford
5) Messiah
6) Lycoming
7) Merchant Marine
8) Dickinson
--------------------
9) JHU
10) Alvernia
11) Drew
12) Kings
13) Gettysburg
14) Cabrini
Screwed up my calculation... Eastern will be ranked
I would go with:
1) F&M
2) Eastern
3) Haverford
4) Lycoming
5) Etown
6) Messiah
7) Dickinson
8) JHU
--------------------
9) Gettysburg
10) Alvernia
11) Drew
12) Kings
13) Merchant Marine
14) Cabrini
Eastern, Haverford, and Lycoming all have played tougher opponents than Etown and Messiah this year.
Etown tough games:
Messiah, Dickinson, @F&M, @Alvernia (Still have Scranton, @Drew)
2-1-1
Eastern tough games:
@Lyco, @Salisbury, @Alvernia, (Still have Kings, Miseri.)
2-0-1
Lycoming tough games:
Eastern, @Roch., @Scranton, @York (Still have @Alvernia, Messiah, Oneonta)
2-1-1
Haverford tough games:
Scranton, @Stevens, @Mont. St., Gettys, Stockton, Camden (Still have Dickinson, F&M)
4-2
Messiah tough games:
@CMU, Gettys, Rowan, @Etown, @York (Still have @Lyco, Alvernia)
1-3-1
With Haverford having the strongest schedule in the country they would have to basically collapse to not get into the NCAA's at this point. Their SOS, OWP and OOWP have to be VERY HIGH.
Have to disagree with your list to a degree. I think each of the top teams have played tough schedules - however I think based on results Etown has done just as well if not better then some of the other teams. They have only trailed to F&M this season *if memory serves me right* and have scored 2+ goals in every game but 2 (1-0 win over Messiah and 0-0 with Alvernia and only given up 10 goals all year *4 of which were against F&M*
My list would be :
1. F&M - although they are getting closer and closer to dropping a game with their results lately--another close one against DeSales yesterday
2. Eastern - agree with this one - will be interesting to see how they handle conference games down the stretch - should do well
3. Etown - good wins against Messiah and Dickinson and yea a loss to F&M but did not perform on the day. If they would meet again, I can see scoreline being different - in my opinion.
4. Lycoming - good results but some tough tests coming up to finish up the regular season. Messiah game is the big one for them.
5. Haverford - Some good results but only 4-2 against the tough opponents you mentioned and 2 tough games to finish with too.
6. Messiah - good team - but not clicking this year to get all the results. Expect them to make a good run in conference play and make NCAA's but will be done early this year.
7. Dickinson
8. JHU
9. Drew
10. Alvernia - could be the team to throw a wrench into the Commonwealth Conference and upset Lyco or Messiah in the playoffs.
11. Gettysburg
12. Kings - can see them taking Eastern down
13. Cabrini
14. Merchant Marine - bad tie yesterday against Moravian
Can't disagree with your assessment IGTF and thanks for your input. I feel that Etown has played tough teams, but the other games are against cupcakes and I mean cupcakes. As to where the other schools mentioned at least played average to good teams...not hard but at least they weren't cupcakes. Not trying to take away from Etown as they are an excellent squad this year, but I think they might be a bit over hyped still.
As for F&M I agree that they have been sliding by as of late. I watched them yesterday and posted how I am not impressed with them being #1. Are they a quality team...of course. But are they #1 quality...no where near it.
And I love the stats you have provided to back that up, but a lot of teams have similar or better stats than Etown in that regard, and teams that had incredibly good stats last year still didn't make it to the dance. The committee doesn't care unfortunately. :-\
Yea unfortunately Etown's opponents are having a down year (for some teams) which is making their schedule look weaker then say it would be in other years. But good part for them is they are beating the teams they are supposed to beat based on those schedules. And then with the tough games they are doing well so far - just the one loss against F&M.
And yea stats are just that - stats. Only thing that matters is what goes on between the white lines for 90 minutes...can teams maintain where they are or will other teams make a run at things?! Will find out who the true contenders are in the next few weeks!
2 examples from last year (and I will be bias w/my Eagles and then Lycoming from the other side of the MAC):
Eastern:
15-4 overall record
6-1 conference record
L @ #25 Camden 3-1 (Stats were pretty even)
L Albright 2-1 (Bad loss)
L Desales 2-1 OT (Everybody slips up once in conf.)
L Kings 2-1 2OT (Conf. Final)
Not a good enough resume to get them in without the AQ because they only played 1 ranked team all year and lost 3-1. Even if they win that game they still don't get in.
Lycoming:
15-3-3 overall
6-2 conference
L @#3 Messiah 3-0 and 4-0(conf final)
L @Albright 1-0 (Bad Loss/Conf. slip up)
T @Kings(Freedom Champs)
W #13 Rochester 2-1 OT (Good win)
13 shut-outs and was last team to give up a goal in the country.
Still didn't matter because they only played 3 good teams (Messiah 2x, Kings, and UR) Not a bad resume but wasn't good enough.
My point being is that both teams had fantastic seasons a year ago and couldn't get it done in their conference playoffs. One blemish (Albright) killed any chance for both of them. If you look at the schedules this year, they both picked up more quality teams and dropped the cupcakes. If Etown slips up in conference tournament and say they end up around 14-2-2 win their first round game 15-2-2 and then lose somehow in the final and go 15-3-2...do they get in over a Haverford who plays so many tough teams or a Lycoming team who has a tougher schedule or an Eastern team ranked in the top 10 in some polls who have an equally tough schedule or Messiah who is "Messiah" and has a tough schedule (Etown w/ Head to Head win).
Everything is so close this year and most years. One game can turn a season upside down. But I anticipate Etown winning the Landmark and not having to worry about any of that ;D It really comes down to the loser of Lycoming/Messiah and Centennial schools battling for the at-larges from this region.
Quote from: igotthisfeeling on October 08, 2015, 01:55:26 PM
Yea unfortunately Etown's opponents are having a down year (for some teams) which is making their schedule look weaker then say it would be in other years. But good part for them is they are beating the teams they are supposed to beat based on those schedules. And then with the tough games they are doing well so far - just the one loss against F&M.
And yea stats are just that - stats. Only thing that matters is what goes on between the white lines for 90 minutes...can teams maintain where they are or will other teams make a run at things?! Will find out who the true contenders are in the next few weeks!
Yep conference play will be all telling for most of these teams. Agree 100% with you!
Haverford OWP with the multiplier 0.85 for home games and 1.25 for away games.
6 3 1 0.553 Scranton
8 1 2 1.023 @ Stevens Tech
0 10 1 0.056 @ Rosemont
6 2 1 0.614 Wesleyan
12 1 0 1.154 @ MSU
6 3 2 0.795 @ JHU
10 3 0 0.654 Stockton
2 7 2 0.232 McDaniel
5 5 0 0.625 @ Washington
7 2 1 0.938 @ Gettysburg
8 3 1 0.885 @ Rutgers-Camden
Current OWP is an insane .684 with even playing 0-10-1 Rosemont
----------------------------------------------------------------------
7 2 2 0.618 Dickinson
4 6 1 0.348 Catholic
3 5 1 0.331 Muhlenberg
11 0 0 0.850 F&M
1 6 3 0.313 Ursinus
4 7 1 0.319 Swarthmore
Drops to a still impressive .606 before factoring in conference playoffs which would feature games vs the likes of Dickinson, JHU, and F&M.
Impossible to determine the SOS due to OOWP calculations. I'd have to do a pivot table and enter every single score this year... Did the South Atlantic region, but it is inaccurate due to unrecorded scores of teams from different regions.
Thanks for providing that! Any way you could calculate that out for Messiah, Etown, Lyco, and Eastern by chance? Don't mean to be a pest but that's a great statistical viewpoint for people. Great information!
I wouldn't worry about it....I would guess all 4 of those teams are not even close to Haverford. The better question would be if Haverford dropped 2 or 3 more games even with 6 losses it would be VERY HARD to keep them out.
I don't think they are close either but it's more to compare those 4 to each other if they are battling for bids with the exception of Haverford. And if they have 6 losses I don't think they get in. IMO.
14-6 (assuming no ties). I guess it would depend who those other 3 losses came to. If they get in with 6 losses and F&M wins the conference I think those are the only teams that get in from that conference. That's a better way to look at it maybe? It's a tough call because they do play a brutal schedule, but 6 losses is a lot compared to other good teams who will end up with 2 or 3.
I need FWeezy to verify that I'm calculating these correctly. When I did Eastern they were around the .545 OWP. E-town and F&M were floating around the .500 range.
F&M
at LVC 4 7 0 0.455
Arcadia 7 3 2 0.567
Alvernia 5 2 5 0.531
Houghton 5 4 2 0.464
Randolph 5 3 2 0.510
Etown 9 1 1 0.734
Swat 4 6 1 0.348
at Steven 3 7 1 0.398
At Wash 5 5 0 0.625
Ursinus 1 6 3 0.213
Mules 3 5 1 0.486
DSU 4 6 0 0.500
F&M at .486 now, but will increase significantly (.545) with 3 road games and Dickinson.
-----------------------------------------------------
McDaniel 2 7 2 0.232
at JHU 6 3 2 0.795
at Hav 7 3 0 0.875
at Gburg 7 2 1 0.938
Dickinson 6 2 2 0.595
Keep in mind this is ONLY OWP, which accounts for 2/3 of the SOS; the other 1/3 being OOWP.
Typically, 5 losses seems to be the cut-off, but . . .
In 2013 Williams got in at 11-6-0. Their record vs. ranked teams was an incredible 6-3-0 and their SOS entering the final week was .592.
In 2012 Emory got in at 10-6-2. Their record vs. ranked teams was 3-3-1 and their SOS entering the final week was .597.
If Haverford was at 13-6-0 (a higher win pct. than either those above examples), they'd probably have a decent shot if they have 2 or 3 wins versus ranked teams.
Eastern OWP =.532
9 1 1 1.080 @Lyco
5 2 5 0.625 Alvernia
7 3 2 0.667 Arcadia
2 5 2 0.417 @Marywood
2 6 1 0.347 @Neumann
4 7 1 0.319 Swarthmore
4 5 0 0.680 Centenary
6 3 0 0.833 @Salisbury
1 9 1 0.170 @Albright
0 10 1 0.039 Rosemont
6 5 1 0.677 @Manhattanville
E-town OWP =0.502
2 5 2 0.283 PSU-Harrisburg
7 2 2 0.618 Dickinson
4 7 0 0.309 DSU
3 8 0 0.341 at Wilkes
3 8 0 0.341 at GMC
11 0 0 1.250 at F&M
4 6 1 0.348 Catholic
5 2 5 0.781 at Alvernia
2 8 1 0.284 at Juniata
7 3 1 0.580 Messiah
5 5 1 0.425 Moravian
5 4 2 0.464 Susqu
Repeating my post from over on the New England thread (seemed appropriate here as well given the talk about SOS and OWP).
Just a word of caution and clarification. Obviously it's next to impossible to do the full SOS calculation on your own. So, yes, just considering the OWP gives you a ball park feel that's pretty useful. But (and I'm stealing my own thunder for an article I'm preparing for the website) there's a few other wrinkles in the calculations that effect the OWP that I don't believe anyone is accounting for (and maybe not remembering or even aware of).
So, it's not even "as simple" as just SOS = 2/3 OWP + 1/3 OOWP.
(1) A team's result against each opponent is removed from each opponents W-L-T record before computing their winning percentage. Now this is relatively minor, so again, for ease and simplicity can be neglected. (The same thing is done for computing each opponent's opponents' winning percentage, the OOWP).
(2) There are multipliers for home and away games that factor each opponent's winning pct. up (away game) or down (home game). (The same thing is done for computing each OOWP). And these factors are not insignificant.
Factored OWP = opponent's winning pct. x SOS multiplier
Multipliers:
0.85 for home games (or -15%)
1.25 for away games (or +25%)
So there's a 40% value difference between home and away games. That means that playing a team a little over .500 away is as helpful to your SOS as playing a team a little under .800 at home as can be illustrated as follows:
Away game: .543 win pct. x 1.25 home/away multiplier = .677 factored OWP
Home game: .792 win pct. x 0.85 home/away multiplier = .673 factored OWP
Interesting, isn't it? Two teams with a difference in winning percentages of .249 contribute the same to a team's SOS if the better team is played at home and the lesser team is played on the road. What does everyone think about that? The multipliers are pretty drastic, aren't they? And it can really affect a team's SOS if in a given year by happenstance they host most of the top teams in their conference versus playing them away, or vice versa.
So, I do not want to discourage the simple method of collecting the straight OWP (without removing the head-to-head result and without applying the home/away multiplier), but everyone should be aware that these components of the calculations can make the actual numbers somewhat different that the quick and dirty ones being thrown out there. How much different will vary of course. And there's usually going to be some balancing out within each team's calculations. But it certainly could change who has a better SOS among a group of teams.
So things to keep in mind. Maybe the home/away multipliers could be accounted for in the OWP calculations to be a little more accurate without getting too burdemsome. And I hope you'll all still read my upcoming article on D3soccer.com even though I just gave a good chuck of it away! ;)
Yes,
All the calculations posted today have the multiplier.
This would probably work if every score was plugged in... http://www.techgraphs.com/an-rpi-spreadsheet-for-you-yes-you/
I calculated the SOS and will not release them until after the NCAA releases the regional rankings. Mainly because the calculation does not factor in Draws. It took me about 2 hours to plug in all the South Atlantic scores, so if the numbers are close in proximity to the NCAAs, then I'll post just for reference and then enter the rest of the regions for the 2nd Regional Ranking.
That's awesome that you have the multipliers factored in, LGOTB! It's not much harder to include them (as opposed to trying to do all the OOWP's)!
Big games today in Mid-Atlantic
McDaniel @ F&M
Misericordia @ Eastern
Dickinson @ Haverford
Drew @ Catholic
Etown @ Merchant Marines
Scranton @ Goucher (Scranton 6-1-1 in last 8)
Gettysburg @ Swat (Getty coming off 0-2 week)
Lycoming @ Arcadia
W&L @ Messiah (Messiah cannot afford another loss)
Manhattanville @ King's
Who's everyone got?
McDaniel @ F&M
F&M 4-1
Misericordia @ Eastern
Eastern 2-1
Dickinson @ Haverford
Tie 2-2
Drew @ Catholic
Catholic 2-1
Etown @ Merchant Marines
Etown 2-0
Scranton @ Goucher (Scranton 6-1-1 in last 8)
Scranton 2-1 OT
Gettysburg @ Swat (Getty coming off 0-2 week)
Gettysburg 1-0
Lycoming @ Arcadia
Lycoming 2-1
W&L @ Messiah (Messiah cannot afford another loss)
Messiah 3-0
Manhattanville @ King's
Manhattanville 4-2
Massey Ratings as of 10/09/15:
4. F&M
6. Haverford
11. Eastern
16. Etown
18. Lycoming
25. Messiah
--------------------
45. Dickinson
47. Gettsyburg
55. John Hopkins
--------------------
81. Drew
83. Scranton
84. Alvernia
90. Merchant Marine
91. Kings
94. Cabrini
McDaniel @ F&M
F&M 4-1
Misericordia @ Eastern
Eastern 4-1
Dickinson @ Haverford
Hverford 2-1
Drew @ Catholic
Catholic 2-1
Etown @ Merchant Marines
Etown 3-1
Scranton @ Goucher
Scranton 2-0
Gettysburg @ Swat (Getty coming off 0-2 week)
Tie 1-1
Lycoming @ Arcadia
Lycoming 2-1
W&L @ Messiah
Messiah 4-1
Manhattanville @ King's
Manhattanville 4-1
I agree 100% with Massey ratings and I do think the Fords knock off F&M
NCAA Regional Projections
1 F&M
2 Haverford
3 Eastern
4 E-town
5 Lycoming
6 Messiah
7 JHU
7 Dickinson
Any surprises in Mid-Atlantic?
Results from this past weekend:
McDaniel @ F&M
F&M 5-0
Misericordia @ Eastern
Eastern 2-0
Dickinson @ Haverford
Hverford 3-1
Drew @ Catholic
Drew 2-1
Etown @ Merchant Marines
Etown 1-0
Scranton @ Goucher
Goucher 1-0
Gettysburg @ Swat
Swat 2-1
Lycoming @ Arcadia
Tied 1-1 2OT
W&L @ Messiah
Messiah 1-0 OT
Manhattanville @ King's
Tied 1-1 2OT
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 10, 2015, 08:15:08 PM
I agree 100% with Massey ratings and I do think the Fords knock off F&M
NCAA Regional Projections
1 F&M
2 Haverford
3 Eastern
4 E-town
5 Lycoming
6 Messiah
7 JHU
7 Dickinson
My only change to this would flip Haverford and Eastern. Spot on!
NSCAA Mid-Atlantic Regional Poll for October 13th:
Rank School Prev. W-L-T
1 Franklin & Marshall College
DA DeSales University 1-0; DH McDaniel College 5-0; 1 12-0-0
2 Eastern University
DH Misericordia University 2-0; 2 11-0-1
3 Elizabethtown College
DH Susquehanna University 3-1; DA United States Merchant Marine Academy 1-0; 3 11-1-1
4 Lycoming College
DA Stevenson University 5-0; TA Arcadia University 1-1; 4 9-1-2
5 Haverford College
DA Rutgers University-Camden 3-0; DH Dickinson College 3-1; 9 9-3-0
6 Cabrini College
DA Berkeley College 2-1; DA Summit University 2-1; 6 8-1-2
7 Messiah College
DH Lebanon Valley College 4-2; DH Washington & Lee University 1-0; 8 8-3-1
8 Drew University
LH University Of Scranton 1-2; DA Catholic University 2-1; 5 9-2-2
9 Dickinson College
DA Misericordia University 3-1; LA Haverford College 1-3; 7 7-3-2
10 Johns Hopkins University
DH Ursinus College 3-2; NR 7-3-2
http://www.nscaa.com/rankings/4638
So to clean that up a bit...
Rank School W-L-T
1 Franklin & Marshall College 12-0-0
2 Eastern University 11-0-1
3 Elizabethtown College 11-1-1
4 Lycoming College 9-1-2
5 Haverford College 9-3-0
6 Cabrini College 8-1-2
7 Messiah College 8-3-1
8 Drew University 9-2-2
9 Dickinson College 7-3-2
10 Johns Hopkins University 7-3-2
Games of the Week:
10/13/15
Gettysburg @ Susquehanna Both teams desperate for a win...especially Gettysburg.
Other Notable Games:
Catholic @ Haverford Can the Fords keep it going? I think so.
10/14/15
Messiah @ Lycoming MACC championship rematch. Probably the GOW for the entire country. MSU vs Kean being the other nationally recognized GOW.
Other Notable Games:
Kings @ FDU Two top 4 teams in MACF clash. Playoff implications/seeding on the line already.
Arcadia @ Leb Val LVC has surged back into contention after a horrible non-conference start and Arcadia coming off a big tie vs Lycoming.
Merchant Marine @ Stevens Would be a nice rebound game for MM but still think it's too little too late for them.
Scranton @ Dickinson Would be a nice win for either side.
Neumann @ Cabrini In the CSAC can a struggling Neumann upend surging Cabrini? I doubt it but we will see.
In 2013, Messiah outshot Lycoming something like 30-2. Will Lycoming sit back and counter or do they throw the kitchen sink at the Falcons now that the talent seems to be leveled?
If Messiah doesn't come away with the 3 pts, it will be like they are running a 5k with a 50lb backpack.
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 13, 2015, 04:09:37 PM
In 2013, Messiah outshot Lycoming something like 30-2. Will Lycoming sit back and counter or do they throw the kitchen sink at the Falcons now that the talent seems to be leveled?
If Messiah doesn't come away with the 3 pts, it will be like they are running a 5k with a 50lb backpack.
IMO I think we can expect to see a mix of both. Won't know until tomorrow but I would expect Messiah to have the majority of possession. I doubt we will see 30-2 in shots this time around. My guess is that it will be a pretty even match-up.
Haverford cruises 3-0 over Catholic out shooting them 26-9.
Mid-Atlantic fan being an EU supporter did you play with the Haverford coach who I see graduated under the tool age of Wagner?
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 13, 2015, 09:24:38 AM
Games of the Week:
10/13/15
Gettysburg @ Susquehanna Both teams desperate for a win...especially Gettysburg.
Other Notable Games:
Catholic @ Haverford Can the Fords keep it going? I think so.
10/14/15
Messiah @ Lycoming MACC championship rematch. Probably the GOW for the entire country. MSU vs Kean being the other nationally recognized GOW.
Other Notable Games:
Kings @ FDU Two top 4 teams in MACF clash. Playoff implications/seeding on the line already.
Arcadia @ Leb Val LVC has surged back into contention after a horrible non-conference start and Arcadia coming off a big tie vs Lycoming.
Merchant Marine @ Stevens Would be a nice rebound game for MM but still think it's too little too late for them.
Scranton @ Dickinson Would be a nice win for either side.
Neumann @ Cabrini In the CSAC can a struggling Neumann upend surging Cabrini? I doubt it but we will see.
No sir I did not. EU was graduate school ;D won't give away my undergrad alma mater where I played ;)
A shame Lycoming doesn't have lights. Would have liked going to the game.
Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 13, 2015, 07:46:15 PM
A shame Lycoming doesn't have lights. Would have liked going to the game.
Yes it's rare these days to see schools without lights. I am assuming it has something to do with their field location. The football field does not have lights either from what I hear. They do have live stats and video as I have watched some of their games online already this year. Not the quality of Messiah or Amherst video but it works.
FW, any pregame prediction or thoughts for this match?
MACC: Lycoming (Messiah fails to get a POOL C)
MACF: Manhattanville (UPSET AQ), Eastern snatches POOL C
NEAC: Morrisville St (AQ)
CSAC: Cabrini (AQ)
CC: Haverford (AQ); F&M, Dickinson, JHU POOL C
LANDMARK: E-town (AQ), Drew possibly getting a POOL C
I just don't see Merchant Marine getting one if they fail to win the Landmark
Keep in mind, Haverford was 9-6-1 and 5th in the NCAA Rankings...
Messiah hasn't beaten any regional ranked, so they need the AQ.
Don't think Morrisville St. is in this region? Merchant Marine is done IMO. Too many blemishes so I don't think they are even in consideration any more. Like the upset pick in the MACF. Definitely could happen. Kings or Manhattanville could upend Eastern. Here's another scenario I have a question about. What if Messiah wins the AQ in the MACC. Does Lycoming get a Pool C then?
Correct on Morrisville St. I was just looking at the NEAC division as a whole...
E-town could host if they run the table and F&M gets 3 blemishes by the end of the season which to me seems a strong possibility.
Got ya no worries just double checking. Any way you can run the SOS% to compare Eastern vs Lycoming? I am curious to see how they match up with Eastern being Lycoming's only loss this season. Or tell me how to calculate it and I will give it a shot. And is this the 1/3 part or 2/3 part of the formula from earlier posts that the NCAA uses in their criteria? Can you also add in Etown too? I think all 3 will be very close in proximity.
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 15, 2015, 02:25:27 PM
Don't think Morrisville St. is in this region? Merchant Marine is done IMO. Too many blemishes so I don't think they are even in consideration any more. Like the upset pick in the MACF. Definitely could happen. Kings or Manhattanville could upend Eastern. Here's another scenario I have a question about. What if Messiah wins the AQ in the MACC. Does Lycoming get a Pool C then?
Doubtful unless they beat Oneonta.
What if they tie Oneonta St.?
Lycoming OWP is .557 currently with it increasing to .560 over the remaining games on the schedule
Eastern OWP is .503 currently with it decreasing to .494 over the remaining games on the schedule. They would need to win the AQ or hope atleast that King's makes it to the Final, because the other teams with near .500 records would not help their case if they were to lose in the final then.
Factor in say semi vs FDU and Final vs Kings = OWP .512 - the mysterious OOWP
Factor in semi vs FDU and Final vs Manhattanville = OWP .497 - the mysterious OOWP.
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 15, 2015, 02:52:25 PM
What if they tie Oneonta St.?
Maalox Maxer on selection Sunday / Monday-------------Translation=Bubble
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 15, 2015, 03:16:59 PM
Lycoming OWP is .557 currently with it increasing to .560 over the remaining games on the schedule
Eastern OWP is .503 currently with it decreasing to .494 over the remaining games on the schedule. They would need to win the AQ or hope atleast that King's makes it to the Final, because the other teams with near .500 records would not help their case if they were to lose in the final then.
Factor in say semi vs FDU and Final vs Kings = OWP .512 - the mysterious OOWP
Factor in semi vs FDU and Final vs Manhattanville = OWP .497 - the mysterious OOWP.
+K Last Guy! Thanks for doing that. I figured out of the 3 teams I mentioned that Lyco and Etown would be neck and neck with Eastern behind them. Eastern can't afford to lose AND have the .497 OWP.
So Mr. Right how would they not get in with that kind of SOS, 15+ wins (potentially), and a winning pct above .845? Only loss at the moment to a top 10 Eastern team. TONS of soccer left to be played but if it ended today all 3 of the above are in IMO.
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 15, 2015, 03:26:43 PM
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 15, 2015, 02:52:25 PM
What if they tie Oneonta St.?
Maalox Maxer on selection Sunday / Monday-------------Translation=Bubble
There will be plenty of bubble teams this year ;D
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 15, 2015, 03:16:59 PM
Lycoming OWP is .557 currently with it increasing to .560 over the remaining games on the schedule
Eastern OWP is .503 currently with it decreasing to .494 over the remaining games on the schedule. They would need to win the AQ or hope atleast that King's makes it to the Final, because the other teams with near .500 records would not help their case if they were to lose in the final then.
Factor in say semi vs FDU and Final vs Kings = OWP .512 - the mysterious OOWP
Factor in semi vs FDU and Final vs Manhattanville = OWP .497 - the mysterious OOWP.
Assuming your numbers are correct for the OWP, it will be very interesting to see if Eastern's SOS is over or under .500 for the first regional rankings once the OOWP is factored in. And if it is under .500, it will be very, vey interesting to see if they are ranked at all. Last year, Luther mysteriously dropped from #2 to unranked when their SOS dropped below .500 between the first and second rankings.
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 15, 2015, 03:31:39 PM
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 15, 2015, 03:16:59 PM
Lycoming OWP is .557 currently with it increasing to .560 over the remaining games on the schedule
Eastern OWP is .503 currently with it decreasing to .494 over the remaining games on the schedule. They would need to win the AQ or hope atleast that King's makes it to the Final, because the other teams with near .500 records would not help their case if they were to lose in the final then.
Factor in say semi vs FDU and Final vs Kings = OWP .512 - the mysterious OOWP
Factor in semi vs FDU and Final vs Manhattanville = OWP .497 - the mysterious OOWP.
So Mr. Right how would they not get in with that kind of SOS, 15+ wins (potentially), and a winning pct above .845? Only loss at the moment to a top 10 Eastern team. TONS of soccer left to be played but if it ended today all 3 of the above are in IMO.
.560 SOS is just above the bubble so I would imagine they would look at Record v Ranked with comparing similar SOS bubble teams. Lycoming just does not have the Record v Ranked...The only team ranked will be Oneonta St...U of Rochester as it stands now will not be ranked
F&M currently sitting at .468 OWP - ? OOWP
Factor in the remaining road games of; JHU, Muhlenberg, Gettysburg, Haverford. Home game vs Dickinson their OWP then bumps up to .556
On that data sheet that they produce with everybody from the region, is that just a final overall data sheet or will that be released and updated in the final weeks of the season as the NCAA regional rankings keep getting released?
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 15, 2015, 03:57:24 PM
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 15, 2015, 03:31:39 PM
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 15, 2015, 03:16:59 PM
Lycoming OWP is .557 currently with it increasing to .560 over the remaining games on the schedule
Eastern OWP is .503 currently with it decreasing to .494 over the remaining games on the schedule. They would need to win the AQ or hope atleast that King's makes it to the Final, because the other teams with near .500 records would not help their case if they were to lose in the final then.
Factor in say semi vs FDU and Final vs Kings = OWP .512 - the mysterious OOWP
Factor in semi vs FDU and Final vs Manhattanville = OWP .497 - the mysterious OOWP.
So Mr. Right how would they not get in with that kind of SOS, 15+ wins (potentially), and a winning pct above .845? Only loss at the moment to a top 10 Eastern team. TONS of soccer left to be played but if it ended today all 3 of the above are in IMO.
.560 SOS is just above the bubble so I would imagine they would look at Record v Ranked with comparing similar SOS bubble teams. Lycoming just does not have the Record v Ranked...The only team ranked will be Oneonta St...U of Rochester as it stands now will not be ranked
Yeah, but a number of teams got in last year with
out high SOS and with
out more than 1 win versus ranked teams. Looking at the 2014 Pool C selections:
Amherst: 13-1-4 / .587 SOS / 0-1-2 vs. Ranked
Brandeis: 17-2-0 / .633 SOS / 7-2-0 vs. Ranked
Brockport State: 10-3-6 / .568 SOS / 1-3-2 vs. RankedCoast Guard: 13-2-3 / .580 SOS / 2-1-1 vs. Ranked
Cortland State: 14-4-1 / .547 SOS / 3-2-1 vs. RankedDickinson: 11-5-2 / .604 SOS / 3-3-1 vs. Ranked
Dominican: 14-5-2 / .545 SOS / 1-3-0 vs. RankedEmory: 13-3-2 / .603 SOS / 5-2-2 vs. Ranked
Franklin & Marshall: 15-1-2 / .573 SOS / 3-1-1 vs. Ranked
Loras: 15-2-2 / .575 SOS / 5-0-2 vs. Ranked
North Park: 12-5-1 / .597 SOS / 2-4-0 vs. Ranked
Ohio Wesleyan: 15-4-2 / .556 SOS / 4-2-2 vs. RankedRochester: 9-5-3 / .627 SOS / 4-3-1 vs. Ranked
Rutgers-Newark: 15-5-0 / .557 SOS / 2-2-0 vs. RankedSalisbury: 11-2-5 / .556 SOS / 0-1-3 vs. RankedTexas-Dallas: 13-4-3 / .516 SOS / 1-0-0 vs. RankedTufts: 10-2-4 / .576 SOS / 1-1-2 vs. Ranked
Wheaton (Mass.): 16-3-2 / .597 2-2-2 vs. Ranked
(Note: SOS value do not incluide final week beofre selections)
I've highlighted the teams with an SOS below .570, similar to what Lycoming will have if LGOTB's numbers are accurate. Some of those resumes aren't just that great. Ohio Wesleyan, Cortland St., and Rutgers-Newark had 4, 3, and 2 wins, respectively, versus ranked teams, but the others had little to hang their hats on. Texas-Dallas smelled of a geographical-based, not merit-based, selection. Dominican? Highly questionable selection. Salisbury? They had the highest win pct. of the "bubble" teams at .750 so that might explain their selection.
Given this topsy-turvy season, I'm not sure the Pool C resumes will be any better this year, and look at the teams that got selected last year. If Lycoming wins all remainging games except for losses to Oneonta and in the conference final, that would put them at 15-3-2 (.800) with a 0-2-0 record vs. ranked teams (assuming Eastern is ranked). Compare that to Salisbury last year. A higher win pct., equal SOS, and a simialr lack of wins vs. ranked (but Salisbury had 3 ties). And it is superior to Dominican and Texas-Dallas except for the their lone wins vs. ranked teams. And a tie with Oneonta St. would improve Lyco's resume some. Clearly a bubble team, but as long as the Pool C resumes are not stronger than last year, they could be on the right side of that bubble, getting in before it bursts.
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 15, 2015, 04:13:12 PM
On that data sheet that they produce with everybody from the region, is that just a final overall data sheet or will that be released and updated in the final weeks of the season as the NCAA regional rankings keep getting released?
With each of the three published weekly regional rankings, they also publish the regional data sheets that were referenced/used in ranking the teams that week. Then, just as we never get to see the final unpublished rankings that immediately proceed and directly impact the at-large selections, we do not get to see the final data sheets. So we are left not knowing the exact final SOS values, but one week (2 games) won't move a team's SOS much from the previous week. We'll know each teams record and winning pct. and we can determine the new record vs. ranked teams, because that is based on who was ranked in the third published rankings.
Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 15, 2015, 04:30:03 PM
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 15, 2015, 03:57:24 PM
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 15, 2015, 03:31:39 PM
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 15, 2015, 03:16:59 PM
Lycoming OWP is .557 currently with it increasing to .560 over the remaining games on the schedule
Eastern OWP is .503 currently with it decreasing to .494 over the remaining games on the schedule. They would need to win the AQ or hope atleast that King's makes it to the Final, because the other teams with near .500 records would not help their case if they were to lose in the final then.
Factor in say semi vs FDU and Final vs Kings = OWP .512 - the mysterious OOWP
Factor in semi vs FDU and Final vs Manhattanville = OWP .497 - the mysterious OOWP.
So Mr. Right how would they not get in with that kind of SOS, 15+ wins (potentially), and a winning pct above .845? Only loss at the moment to a top 10 Eastern team. TONS of soccer left to be played but if it ended today all 3 of the above are in IMO.
.560 SOS is just above the bubble so I would imagine they would look at Record v Ranked with comparing similar SOS bubble teams. Lycoming just does not have the Record v Ranked...The only team ranked will be Oneonta St...U of Rochester as it stands now will not be ranked
Yeah, but a number of teams got in last year without high SOS and without more than 1 win versus ranked teams. Looking at the 2014 Pool C selections:
Amherst: 13-1-4 / .587 SOS / 0-1-2 vs. Ranked
Brandeis: 17-2-0 / .633 SOS / 7-2-0 vs. Ranked
Brockport State: 10-3-6 / .568 SOS / 1-3-2 vs. Ranked
Coast Guard: 13-2-3 / .580 SOS / 2-1-1 vs. Ranked
Cortland State: 14-4-1 / .547 SOS / 3-2-1 vs. Ranked
Dickinson: 11-5-2 / .604 SOS / 3-3-1 vs. Ranked
Dominican: 14-5-2 / .545 SOS / 1-3-0 vs. Ranked
Emory: 13-3-2 / .603 SOS / 5-2-2 vs. Ranked
Franklin & Marshall: 15-1-2 / .573 SOS / 3-1-1 vs. Ranked
Loras: 15-2-2 / .575 SOS / 5-0-2 vs. Ranked
North Park: 12-5-1 / .597 SOS / 2-4-0 vs. Ranked
Ohio Wesleyan: 15-4-2 / .556 SOS / 4-2-2 vs. Ranked
Rochester: 9-5-3 / .627 SOS / 4-3-1 vs. Ranked
Rutgers-Newark: 15-5-0 / .557 SOS / 2-2-0 vs. Ranked
Salisbury: 11-2-5 / .556 SOS / 0-1-3 vs. Ranked
Texas-Dallas: 13-4-3 / .516 SOS / 1-0-0 vs. Ranked
Tufts: 10-2-4 / .576 SOS / 1-1-2 vs. Ranked
Wheaton (Mass.): 16-3-2 / .597 2-2-2 vs. Ranked
(Note: SOS value do not incluide final week beofre selections)
I've highlighted the teams with an SOS below .570, similar to what Lycoming will have if LGOTB's numbers are accurate. Some of those resumes aren't just that great. Ohio Wesleyan, Cortland St., and Rutgers-Newark had 4, 3, and 2 wins, respectively, versus ranked teams, but the others had little to hang their hats on. Texas-Dallas smelled of a geographical-based, not merit-based, selection. Dominican? Highly questionable selection. Salisbury? They had the highest win pct. of the "bubble" teams at .750 so that might explain their selection.
Given this topsy-turvy season, I'm not sure the Pool C resumes will be any better this year, and look at the teams that got selected last year. If Lycoming wins all remainging games except for losses to Oneonta and in the conference final, that would put them at 15-3-2 (.800) with a 0-2-0 record vs. ranked teams (assuming Eastern is ranked). Compare that to Salisbury last year. A higher win pct., equal SOS, and a simialr lack of wins vs. ranked (but Salisbury had 3 ties). And it is superior to Dominican and Texas-Dallas except for the their lone wins vs. ranked teams. And a tie with Oneonta St. would improve Lyco's resume some. Clearly a bubble team, but as long as the Pool C resumes are not stronger than last year, they could be on the right side of that bubble, getting in before it bursts.
I totally agree with you but 1 thing I did notice in all of the highlighted is all teams had at least 1 win or 1 draw against ranked...Lycoming would be 0-2-0 or 0-1-0..
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 15, 2015, 04:57:40 PMI totally agree with you but 1 thing I did notice in all of the highlighted is all teams had at least 1 win or 1 draw against ranked...Lycoming would be 0-2-0 or 0-1-0..
Exactly, . . . and I should have stated that (and that's kind of what I was getting at with the parethetical that Salisbury had three ties vs. ranked teams).
It's a little harder to deduce how much ties versus ranked teams is valued by the committee. I think we both are on the same wavelength in understanding that the committee loves high SOS and wins vs. ranked teams. Got to think they help some, but not as sure just how much ties help. Are two ties worth the same as one win, for example? What would the committee like better: 1-1-0 vs. ranked or 0-1-2? What about 1-1-0 or 0-1-3?
But in Lycoming's case they don't have any ties unless Rochester would get themselves ranked by the end and Lyco could draw with Oneonta St. And thus, a non-Commonwealth champion Lycoming will probably be a bubble team even in a best case scenario (i.e. beating Oneonta).
I don't think anybody anticipated Messiah not to be a ranked opponent as they would have most likely 2 games with them to add to the total which would put them at 1-1 right now and 1-1-1 if UR sneaks in. Geneva is also RV votes in their region so if they somehow go on a roll and sneak in to the regional rankings that's another win to add to it. All what ifs though.
If they beat Oneonta St. I think they are in no doubt as long as they have no other slip ups.
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 15, 2015, 04:57:40 PM
Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 15, 2015, 04:30:03 PM
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 15, 2015, 03:57:24 PM
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 15, 2015, 03:31:39 PM
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 15, 2015, 03:16:59 PM
Lycoming OWP is .557 currently with it increasing to .560 over the remaining games on the schedule
Eastern OWP is .503 currently with it decreasing to .494 over the remaining games on the schedule. They would need to win the AQ or hope atleast that King's makes it to the Final, because the other teams with near .500 records would not help their case if they were to lose in the final then.
Factor in say semi vs FDU and Final vs Kings = OWP .512 - the mysterious OOWP
Factor in semi vs FDU and Final vs Manhattanville = OWP .497 - the mysterious OOWP.
So Mr. Right how would they not get in with that kind of SOS, 15+ wins (potentially), and a winning pct above .845? Only loss at the moment to a top 10 Eastern team. TONS of soccer left to be played but if it ended today all 3 of the above are in IMO.
.560 SOS is just above the bubble so I would imagine they would look at Record v Ranked with comparing similar SOS bubble teams. Lycoming just does not have the Record v Ranked...The only team ranked will be Oneonta St...U of Rochester as it stands now will not be ranked
Yeah, but a number of teams got in last year without high SOS and without more than 1 win versus ranked teams. Looking at the 2014 Pool C selections:
Amherst: 13-1-4 / .587 SOS / 0-1-2 vs. Ranked
Brandeis: 17-2-0 / .633 SOS / 7-2-0 vs. Ranked
Brockport State: 10-3-6 / .568 SOS / 1-3-2 vs. Ranked
Coast Guard: 13-2-3 / .580 SOS / 2-1-1 vs. Ranked
Cortland State: 14-4-1 / .547 SOS / 3-2-1 vs. Ranked
Dickinson: 11-5-2 / .604 SOS / 3-3-1 vs. Ranked
Dominican: 14-5-2 / .545 SOS / 1-3-0 vs. Ranked
Emory: 13-3-2 / .603 SOS / 5-2-2 vs. Ranked
Franklin & Marshall: 15-1-2 / .573 SOS / 3-1-1 vs. Ranked
Loras: 15-2-2 / .575 SOS / 5-0-2 vs. Ranked
North Park: 12-5-1 / .597 SOS / 2-4-0 vs. Ranked
Ohio Wesleyan: 15-4-2 / .556 SOS / 4-2-2 vs. Ranked
Rochester: 9-5-3 / .627 SOS / 4-3-1 vs. Ranked
Rutgers-Newark: 15-5-0 / .557 SOS / 2-2-0 vs. Ranked
Salisbury: 11-2-5 / .556 SOS / 0-1-3 vs. Ranked
Texas-Dallas: 13-4-3 / .516 SOS / 1-0-0 vs. Ranked
Tufts: 10-2-4 / .576 SOS / 1-1-2 vs. Ranked
Wheaton (Mass.): 16-3-2 / .597 2-2-2 vs. Ranked
(Note: SOS value do not incluide final week beofre selections)
I've highlighted the teams with an SOS below .570, similar to what Lycoming will have if LGOTB's numbers are accurate. Some of those resumes aren't just that great. Ohio Wesleyan, Cortland St., and Rutgers-Newark had 4, 3, and 2 wins, respectively, versus ranked teams, but the others had little to hang their hats on. Texas-Dallas smelled of a geographical-based, not merit-based, selection. Dominican? Highly questionable selection. Salisbury? They had the highest win pct. of the "bubble" teams at .750 so that might explain their selection.
Given this topsy-turvy season, I'm not sure the Pool C resumes will be any better this year, and look at the teams that got selected last year. If Lycoming wins all remainging games except for losses to Oneonta and in the conference final, that would put them at 15-3-2 (.800) with a 0-2-0 record vs. ranked teams (assuming Eastern is ranked). Compare that to Salisbury last year. A higher win pct., equal SOS, and a simialr lack of wins vs. ranked (but Salisbury had 3 ties). And it is superior to Dominican and Texas-Dallas except for the their lone wins vs. ranked teams. And a tie with Oneonta St. would improve Lyco's resume some. Clearly a bubble team, but as long as the Pool C resumes are not stronger than last year, they could be on the right side of that bubble, getting in before it bursts.
I totally agree with you but 1 thing I did notice in all of the highlighted is all teams had at least 1 win or 1 draw against ranked...Lycoming would be 0-2-0 or 0-1-0..
Also thanks for the great info FW. It's a great visual to look at as a benchmark for last year to this year. +K
Massey Ratings as of 10/15/15:
Top 5
2. F&M------------12-0-0 SOS=73
5. Haverford------10-3-0 SOS=6
8. Eastern--------12-0-1 SOS=99
12. Etown--------12-1-1 SOS=81
15. Lycoming-----10-1-2 SOS=71
------------------------------------
Next 3
35. Messiah-------8-4-1 SOS=14
43. Dickinson-----8-3-2 SOS=32
47. Hopkins-------7-3-2 SOS=16
------------------------------------
Outside Looking In
49. Gettysburg----8-3-1 SOS=46
66. Drew----------10-2-2 SOS=125
83. King's---------10-2-1 SOS=197
86. Arcadia--------8-3-3 SOS=165
*Cabrini's record is not fully up to date but they are sitting in the 120's at 7-1-3 but their actual record is 9-1-3. I still don't think this would jump them past the top 80 though as Cabrini's SOS=211*
What did the weekend tell us?
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 16, 2015, 02:54:40 PM
Massey Ratings as of 10/15/15:
Top 5
2. F&M------------12-0-0 SOS=73
5. Haverford------10-3-0 SOS=6
8. Eastern--------12-0-1 SOS=99
12. Etown--------12-1-1 SOS=81
15. Lycoming-----10-1-2 SOS=71
------------------------------------
Next 3
35. Messiah-------8-4-1 SOS=14
43. Dickinson-----8-3-2 SOS=32
47. Hopkins-------7-3-2 SOS=16
------------------------------------
Outside Looking In
49. Gettysburg----8-3-1 SOS=46
66. Drew----------10-2-2 SOS=125
83. King's---------10-2-1 SOS=197
86. Arcadia--------8-3-3 SOS=165
*Cabrini's record is not fully up to date but they are sitting in the 120's at 7-1-3 but their actual record is 9-1-3. I still don't think this would jump them past the top 80 though as Cabrini's SOS=211*
4/5 top 5 all win. Eastern tied. Messiah and Dickinson win and Hopkins lost to F&M. Gettysburg, Drew, and Arcadia all lose pretty much guaranteeing an AQ to get in the tournament.
We are three days away from the all important first poll?
What's the mid-Atlantic look like after this weekends results?
1. F&M
2. Haverford (SOS is so much higher then all others and will grow more with showdown with F&M)
3. Etown
4. Eastern (beat Lycoming)
5. Lycoming (loss to Eastern)
6. Dickinson
7. Messiah
8. JHU
9. Kings
10. Drew
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 17, 2015, 10:49:19 PM
4/5 top 5 all win. Eastern tied. Messiah and Dickinson win and Hopkins lost to F&M. Gettysburg, Drew, and Arcadia all lose pretty much guaranteeing an AQ to get in the tournament.
Quote from: backyarddawg on October 18, 2015, 01:13:59 PM
We are three days away from the all important first poll?
What's the mid-Atlantic look like after this weekends results?
1. F&M
2. Haverford (SOS is so much higher then all others and will grow more with showdown with F&M)
3. Etown
4. Eastern (beat Lycoming)
5. Lycoming (loss to Eastern)
6. Dickinson
7. Messiah
8. JHU
9. Kings
10. Drew
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 17, 2015, 10:49:19 PM
4/5 top 5 all win. Eastern tied. Messiah and Dickinson win and Hopkins lost to F&M. Gettysburg, Drew, and Arcadia all lose pretty much guaranteeing an AQ to get in the tournament.
Massey Ratings after this weekend:2. F&M
5. Haverford
11. Lycoming
13. Etown
16. Eastern
-----------------------------
30. Messiah
33. Dickinson
45. Hopkins
??? Cabrini 10-1-3 only listed 8-1-3 on Massey. They might jump into top 8 but I think you will see them at #9.
-----------------------------
55. Gettysburg
75. Kings
83. York
I think that is how you will see the top 5 for the NCAA Regional Rankings as well. Maybe flip Lycoming and Etown.
Should be interesting as I think pool C is very light this year with no Landmark, CSAC teams making it other then Etown. Is Cabrini the next Randolph if they get upset in CSAC playoffs?
Cabrini will not make the tournament unless they win the CSAC.
Where are Massey ratings at?
Quote from: backyarddawg on October 18, 2015, 10:01:32 PM
Where are Massey ratings at?
http://masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=csoc&sub=NCAA-D3
After a disappointing 2-0 outing against Lycoming College (a very physical team who currently are among the national D3 leaders in number of fouls and yellow cards) earlier in the week, Messiah rebounded nicely against Arcadia 3-0 (check the box score). Arcadia came into the contest with a better record than Messiah and also ranked ahead of Messiah in the conference. The box score looks like Messiah stats from prior years...might they be starting to find their stride?
Quote from: D3soccerwatcher on October 19, 2015, 01:51:21 AM
After a disappointing 2-0 outing against Lycoming College (a very physical team who currently are among the national D3 leaders in number of fouls and yellow cards) earlier in the week, Messiah rebounded nicely against Arcadia 3-0 (check the box score). Arcadia came into the contest with a better record than Messiah and also ranked ahead of Messiah in the conference. The box score looks like Messiah stats from prior years...might they be starting to find their stride?
A better record doesn't always mean the team is better. If you look at other Arcadia game box scores, like against Lycoming for example, they were out-shot 34-6 but still managed to get a 1-1 result from the game. Does that mean that the two teams are equal? Probably not. Just like Arcadia having a better record than Messiah entering the game. Doesn't mean that they are better. I think if you took a poll and asked who would win the game between Messiah and Arcadia 95% of the voters would take Messiah.
As for finding their stride, Messiah is still figuring things out. They are a very good team with a lot of quality. Other teams wish they had the talent that this current team has. But with expectations so high to "be Messiah" it doesn't make them look as good. Messiah has played well in all the games they should have won. They have played average in the games that were a toss up. They will always have a target on their back no matter how good or mediocre they are.
Also, you need to take into consideration that Messiah was at home for their homecoming game after a tough loss. It was almost certain they would bounce back the way they did.
NSCAA Regional Ranking Predictions:
1. F&M 13-0-0
2. Eastern 12-0-2
3. Etown 13-1-1
4. Lycoming 11-1-2
5. Haverford 11-3-0
6. Cabrini 10-1-3
7. Dickinson 9-3-2
8. Kings 12-2-1
9. Messiah 9-4-1
10. Hopkins 7-4-2
RV: Drew (10-3-2), Gettysburg (8-4-1)
---------------------------------------------------
NCAA Regional Ranking Predictions:
1. F&M
2. Haverford
3. Etown
4. Lycoming
5. Eastern
6. Dickinson
7. Messiah
8. Cabrini/Hopkins
Quote from: D3soccerwatcher on October 19, 2015, 01:51:21 AM
After a disappointing 2-0 outing against Lycoming College (a very physical team who currently are among the national D3 leaders in number of fouls and yellow cards) earlier in the week, Messiah rebounded nicely against Arcadia 3-0 (check the box score). Arcadia came into the contest with a better record than Messiah and also ranked ahead of Messiah in the conference. The box score looks like Messiah stats from prior years...might they be starting to find their stride?
Either way Messiah must win the AQ, and even then there chances of getting out of the 1st round are slim. I do not see them being a Sweet 16 team this year.
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 19, 2015, 07:50:51 AM
Quote from: D3soccerwatcher on October 19, 2015, 01:51:21 AM
After a disappointing 2-0 outing against Lycoming College (a very physical team who currently are among the national D3 leaders in number of fouls and yellow cards) earlier in the week, Messiah rebounded nicely against Arcadia 3-0 (check the box score). Arcadia came into the contest with a better record than Messiah and also ranked ahead of Messiah in the conference. The box score looks like Messiah stats from prior years...might they be starting to find their stride?
A better record doesn't always mean the team is better. If you look at other Arcadia game box scores, like against Lycoming for example, they were out-shot 34-6 but still managed to get a 1-1 result from the game. Does that mean that the two teams are equal? Probably not. Just like Arcadia having a better record than Messiah entering the game. Doesn't mean that they are better. I think if you took a poll and asked who would win the game between Messiah and Arcadia 95% of the voters would take Messiah.
As for finding their stride, Messiah is still figuring things out. They are a very good team with a lot of quality. Other teams wish they had the talent that this current team has. But with expectations so high to "be Messiah" it doesn't make them look as good. Messiah has played well in all the games they should have won. They have played average in the games that were a toss up. They will always have a target on their back no matter how good or mediocre they are.
Also, you need to take into consideration that Messiah was at home for their homecoming game after a tough loss. It was almost certain they would bounce back the way they did.
All true - but doesn't take away the fact that the stats for this game were very Messiah-like. I think Messiah will win out the rest of the season which ends in about a week and half and will advance to the Conf Final where the will meet Lycoming. Messiah will have to win the Conf to get the AQ and advance to the National Tourney.
I'd swap out Kings and have Drew in that slot. Agree with everything else. Haverford, battle-tested, will be the number 1 team in Mid-Atlantic by the final NCAA regional rankings.
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 19, 2015, 01:49:07 PM
Quote from: D3soccerwatcher on October 19, 2015, 01:51:21 AM
After a disappointing 2-0 outing against Lycoming College (a very physical team who currently are among the national D3 leaders in number of fouls and yellow cards) earlier in the week, Messiah rebounded nicely against Arcadia 3-0 (check the box score). Arcadia came into the contest with a better record than Messiah and also ranked ahead of Messiah in the conference. The box score looks like Messiah stats from prior years...might they be starting to find their stride?
Either way Messiah must win the AQ, and even then there chances of getting out of the 1st round are slim. I do not see them being a Sweet 16 team this year.
Agree Messiah must win the Conf to get the AQ. As FW has pointed out, there does not appear to be a Plan B.
NCAA Regional Ranking Predictions:
1. F&M
2. Haverford
3. Eastern (based on result over Lycoming, but never a guarantee)
4. Lycoming (draw vs Rochester not as strong)
5. E-town (tied Alvernia, as did Eastern). Eastern win % a factor, bumping E-town
---------------------------------------
6. Dickinson
7. Messiah
8. Kings*
1-5 fairly set. Gets realllly thin in terms of 6-8 slots. Expect JHU and Drew to also be in the mix.
*Kings possibly not ranked until SOS improves and will need help...
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 18, 2015, 07:49:49 PM
Cabrini will not make the tournament unless they win the CSAC.
Cabrini should never lose the CSAC. Ever.
NSCAA Regional Rankings: Poll 6-Oct. 20th
Rank School W-L-T (Massey Rating)
1 Franklin & Marshall College 13-0-0 (2)
2 Eastern University 12-0-2 (14)
3 Elizabethtown College 13-1-1 (8)
4 Lycoming College 11-1-2 (9)
5 Haverford College 11-3-0 (5)
6 Cabrini College 9-1-3 (117)
7 Dickinson College 9-3-2 (34)
8 Messiah College 9-4-1 (30)
9 Drew University 10-3-2 (92)
10 Johns Hopkins University 7-4-2 (48)
http://www.nscaa.com/rankings/4718
Messiah up 2-0 on Widener only 15 mins in.
3-0
F&M now up 1-0 on Muhlenberg (35 mins in)
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 20, 2015, 07:29:04 PM
3-0
Two goals by Messiah leading scorer Danny Rowe...now with 9 goals on the season.
Messiah 7 goals in last 2 games.. They might've found something.
After last nights results here are the Massey Ratings w/SOS and Bennett Rankings for the region:
Massey (SOS)------Bennett
2. F&M (58)------4
5. Haverford (7)------8
9. Lycoming (71)------15
10 Etown (88)------23
15. Eastern (116)------32
24. Messiah (13)------10
31. Dickinson (22)------27
49. Hopkins (8)------48
-----------------------------
57. Gettysburg (33)------47
92. Drew (136)------66
93. Arcadia (167)------98
98. Kings (201)------86
King's is pretty much AQ or bust now with their loss to Miseri.
MACF looks like it will be:
Eastern vs Manhattanville
Kings vs Miseri
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 21, 2015, 11:37:20 AM
King's is pretty much AQ or bust now with their loss to Miseri.
They were always AQ or bust. Terrible SOS. Eastern needs to win their AQ or they could be in trouble because they also have a low SOS.
Big win for Rutgers Newark over Stevens last night...I believe Stevens might be getting closer to AQ or bust as their resume is getting less and less impressive by the day....If RUN can go 2-0-1 or better yet 3-0-0 in their last three games they will be off the bubble IMO
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 21, 2015, 11:50:06 AM
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 21, 2015, 11:37:20 AM
King's is pretty much AQ or bust now with their loss to Miseri.
They were always AQ or bust. Terrible SOS. Eastern needs to win their AQ or they could be in trouble because they also have a low SOS.
Eastern is one of the first teams that I am looking for when the NCAA rankings come out, because if the OWP someone (LGOTB, I guess) computed for them is accurate and doesn't change much with the addition of their OOWP, they could be much lower than seen in the NSCAA and D3soccer.com rankings
if not completely absent.
Eastern "should" be around .530 SOS. F&M will be the first team I am looking for, if not completely absent...
Haverford should be #1 or #2
Ooops. I thought Eastern was going to have a sub .500 or near .500 SOS. Must have mis-remembered some of the numbers you threw out there. Should have hunted back through the thread before posting.
Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 21, 2015, 12:48:35 PM
Ooops. I thought Eastern was going to have a sub .500 or near .500 SOS. Must have mis-remembered some of the numbers you threw out there. Should have hunted back through the thread before posting.
Yeah I also thought I read they would be .497 or .503 range? Maybe not. Only thing saving Eastern is wins vs ranked opponents which won't come into play until next week. I don't think their SOS will be near .530 LG? F&M's SOS will go up after these next couple games.
FW---good point that they could be absent. I don't think they will be since they are undefeated but I don't think they will be as high as the other polls value them at. We will find out shortly!
I think you will see Haverford at #2. 3 losses hurts them going for that 1 spot.
Mid-Atlantic In-Division Record Overall Record
1. Franklin & Marshall 13-0-0 13-0-0
2. Lycoming 11-1-2 11-1-2
3. Elizabethtown 13-1-1 13-1-1
4. Haverford 11-3-0 11-3-0
5. Eastern 12-0-2 12-0-2
6. Dickinson 9-3-2 9-3-2
7. Messiah 9-4-1 9-4-1
8. Johns Hopkins 7-4-2 7-4-2
---------------------------------------------------------------
NCAA Regional Ranking Predictions by MAF
1. F&M
2. Haverford
3. Etown
4. Lycoming
5. Eastern
6. Dickinson
7. Messiah
8. Cabrini/Hopkins
WELL DONE!
-------------------------------------------------------------
NCAA Regional Ranking Predictions by LGOTB:
1. F&M
2. Haverford
3. Eastern (based on result over Lycoming, but never a guarantee)
4. Lycoming (draw vs Rochester not as strong)
5. E-town (tied Alvernia, as did Eastern). Eastern win % a factor, bumping E-town
---------------------------------------
6. Dickinson
7. Messiah
8. Kings*
1-5 fairly set. Gets realllly thin in terms of 6-8 slots. Expect JHU and Drew to also be in the mix.
*Kings possibly not ranked until SOS improves and will need help...
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Surprised with Haverford and Eastern slot(s).
Eastern's SOS was .503 as per the data sheet which is more along the lines of what I thought I remembered you calculating. And that certainly explains them being lower than in the NSCAA and D3soccer.com rankings.
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 15, 2015, 03:16:59 PM
Lycoming OWP is .557 currently with it increasing to .560 over the remaining games on the schedule
Eastern OWP is .503 currently with it decreasing to .494 over the remaining games on the schedule. They would need to win the AQ or hope atleast that King's makes it to the Final, because the other teams with near .500 records would not help their case if they were to lose in the final then.
Factor in say semi vs FDU and Final vs Kings = OWP .512 - the mysterious OOWP
Factor in semi vs FDU and Final vs Manhattanville = OWP .497 - the mysterious OOWP.
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 21, 2015, 12:30:36 PM
Eastern "should" be around .530 SOS. F&M will be the first team I am looking for, if not completely absent...
Haverford should be #1 or #2
You probably just mis-typed and switched the three and the zero by mistake. .530 ..... .503 It's an easy flip.
Seems like the 3 losses for Haverford are hurting them in every poll.
Their 3 losses came against teams with a combined record of 33-9-4 and 2 of the teams have 2 losses or less.
The vs RR teams will be interesting for next week as it looks like this from week 1:
As of 10/22:
F&M - 2-0
Lycoming - 1-1
Etown - 2-1
Haverford - 3-3
Eastern - 2-0
Dickinson - 0-2-1
Messiah -0-4
John Hopkins - 0-3-1
Teams that just missed the cut IMO record vs ranked would be...
Gettysburg: 0-3-1 w/F&M remaining
Drew: 0-1 w/Etown remaining
Cabrini: 0-0
Arcadia: 0-3-1
Kings: 0-0 w/Eastern remaining
Cabrini needs to win the CSAC and King's needs to win the Freedom for any shot at NCAA's. At-Large berths are over/have been over for them. Arcadia needs to win the Commonwealth but could sneak into the rankings. Drew most likely needs to win the Landmark and may slide into the rankings but at-large berths for them and Arcadia are very slim, like 2% chance slim. Gettysburg with the best hope of cracking the top 8 if Hopkins slips up which is unlikely considering they have the bottom 3 of the Centennial remaining.
Also if Hopkins and Dickinson both end up 11-4-2 what's the tie breaker? They tied each other 1-1. Right now Hopkins has edge on SOS over Dickinson.
SOS:
JHU=.615
Dickinson=.562
RvR:
JHU=0-3-2 none remaining
Dickinson=0-2-1 w/F&M remaining
Will be interesting but JHU's SOS will drop slightly over the next 3 games and Dickinson's will remain around the same with a slight bump after they play F&M. I would imagine JHU will have the higher SOS which is what it will come down to when finalizing rankings unless Dickinson gets a win or draw vs F&M.
I think both right now are on the wrong side of the bubble and need to go deep in conference playoffs if they want a chance.
Quote from: backyarddawg on October 22, 2015, 10:41:46 AM
Seems like the 3 losses for Haverford are hurting them in every poll.
Their 3 losses came against teams with a combined record of 33-9-4 and 2 of the teams have 2 losses or less.
The vs RR teams will be interesting for next week as it looks like this from week 1:
As of 10/22:
F&M - 2-0
Lycoming - 1-1
Etown - 2-1
Haverford - 3-3
Eastern - 2-0
Dickinson - 0-2-1
Messiah -0-4
John Hopkins - 0-3-1
JHU is 0-3-2 vs ranked. 3 losses=F&M, Haverford, Newark Ties=Dickisnon, TCNJ
Centennial Playoffs looking like this:
1. F&M/Haverford
2. F&M/Haverford
3. JHU/Dickinson
4. JHU/Dickinson
5. Up for grabs...Wash. Coll/Swat/Gettysburg
Mid-Atlantic In-Division Record Overall Record
1. Franklin & Marshall 13-0-0 13-0-0
2. Lycoming 11-1-2 11-1-2
3. Elizabethtown 13-1-1 13-1-1
4. Haverford 11-3-0 11-3-0
5. Eastern 12-0-2 12-0-2
6. Dickinson 9-3-2 9-3-2
7. Messiah 9-4-1 9-4-1
8. Johns Hopkins 7-4-2 7-4-2
I think these are spot on. NCAA did a good job in this region.
I agree that they got it right with this region. Wish I could say that for all the regions!!
Im sorry Haverford should be #2 and I believe after next week will be
The 3 losses hurts them. If they are 3-3 vs ranked that's no different than being 1-1 or 2-2.
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 22, 2015, 07:19:51 PMThe 3 losses hurts them. If they are 3-3 vs ranked that's no different than being 1-1 or 2-2.
Experience tells me you are wrong. 3-3-0 is much, much better than 1-1-0. As Mr. Right and I have numerous times said, it's the wins in the record versus ranked that seems most important. That is, how many times have you proven you can compete with and defeat ranked teams, the kind of teams you'll face in the tournament after the first round. The committee encourages teams to play tough schedules by the high value they seem to place on SOS, but they recognize that the more the top team play each other, the more most of them will pick up blemishes. And it seems that they are a lot less concerned with those blemishes you pick up along the way so long as you are also winning some to prove you belong in that upper tier of teams.
I get both angles you guys are picking at here MAF and FW. I agree and disagree with both. Yes more ranked teams the better. But if you have the same record then its still the same winning % against ranked teams right? So essentially you're saying the committee is giving bonus points for having the same record vs ranked but because they played against 2 more that makes them better? 1-1 and 2-2 are the same so MAF is correct in his thinking. And FW is correct in the fact the more ranked you play the more favorable but that should reflect in your SOS and OWP and OOWP. Shouldn't get EXTRA points for 2-2 or 3-3 compared to 1-1. That was a mouthful!
Mid-Atlantic Overall Record
1. Franklin & Marshall 14-0-0
@Haverford, @Gettysburg, Dickinson remaining
RvR=2-0-0, SOS=.544
SOS will go up(not sure by how much) and they have 2 more ranked teams to play
2. Lycoming 12-1-2
Hood, Oneonta St., Widener remaining
RvR=1-1, SOS=.564
SOS will bump slightly and they play 1 more ranked team
3. Elizabethtown 14-1-1
@Drew, Scranton remaining
RvR=2-1, SOS=.538
SOS will stay around the same, might bump above .54 and they do not play anymore ranked teams
4. Haverford 11-3-0
F&M, @Ursinus, Swat remaining
RvR=3-3, SOS=.593
SOS will remain the same and they play 1 more ranked team
5. Eastern 13-0-2
@Kings, Goucher, FDU remaining
RvR=2-0, SOS=.503
SOS will drop or stay the same and they do not play any more ranked teams
6. Dickinson 9-3-2
@Swat, Muhlenberg, @F&M remaining
RvR=0-2-1, SOS=.562
SOS will slightly bump or stay the same and they play 1 more ranked team
7. Messiah 10-4-1
@Albright, Stevenson, Alvernia
RvR=0-3, SOS=.624
SOS will drop below .60 most likely and they do not play anymore ranked teams
8. Johns Hopkins 8-4-2
@Muhlenberg, McDaniel, @Wash. College
RvR=0-3-2, SOS=.615
SOS will drop just a hair and they do not play anymore ranked teams
As for the teams on the outside looking in. It's probably Drew and Gettysburg. Drew would have a better chance of leap-frogging into the top 8 than Gettysburg IMO.
Drew 11-3-2
@Etown, Moravian remaining
RvR=0-1, SOS=.562
SOS will bump slightly and they have 1 more ranked team to play
Gettysburg 8-4-1
@Wash. College, F&M, McDaniel remaining
RvR=0-3-1, SOS=.533
SOS will bump a tad and they have 1 more ranked team to play
*The record vs division opponents is the same for all teams as their overall record*
This hopefully provides us with a good visual. So my points I was trying to make was that if you are going to consider teams like Lycoming as a definition of a bubble team then what are teams 3-8 in this region? Even F&M could be a "bubble" team by your definition then if they slip up because of how low their SOS is. Here is my thought process though...
Hopkins at best(not counting conference playoffs) can go 11-4-2. Even if they do that they will end with 0 wins in the RvR category.
Dickinson can go 12-3-2 and finish 1-2-1 RvR at best. I don't anticipate F&M losing on senior day though.
Messiah can be 13-4-1 at best(they will most likely win out IMO) and finish 0-3, 0-4, 1-3/4, or 1-3/4-1 in RvR depending on teams like Wash. Lee, Gettysburg, and CMU.
Eastern can go 16-0-2 and finish with 2-0-0 RvR. SOS will kill them if they need an at-large.
Haverford can go 14-3 and finish 4-3 RvR.
Etown can go 16-1-1 and finish 2-1 RvR.
Lycoming can go 15-1-2 and finish 2-1 RvR
F&M can go 17-0 and finish 4-0 RvR. I think they will drop 1 of their last 3 games though.
So if you are looking at this like I hope you are and should...the only team that is in serious trouble is Eastern. RvR is good. SOS is horrid. Winning % is good.
Hopkins, Messiah, and Dickinson's RvR will hurt them if compared to a team like Etown or Lycoming. And if it comes to a comparison like that Etown has the worse SOS of the 4.
We will see what F&M are made of in the next 3 games.
As for Messiah dropping out, I just don't see it happening. The only reason why is because Dickinson and Hopkins both have 0 wins vs ranked teams and similar records and SOS. Plus there isn't another team at #9 or #10 that can jump into the top 8 to replace any of those teams. That's the main thing we all need to realize. The top 8 are pretty much going to be the top 8 unless 5-8 really slip up in the next week and a half.
Hope everyone enjoys this and hope it provides a good visual and some clarity for everyone that's interested in this region!
Overall, there is still so much soccer to be played for this region and across the country. I find this region fascinating in how there could be so much movement over the next 2 releases which we don't normally see as FW and Mr. Right pointed out in earlier posts since practically 75% of the season is done.
Saw the following stats on Lycoming today...
Lycoming currently leads all MAC (Freedom and Commonwealth) in total fouls (252) and yellow cards (29).
Among all D3 soccer programs in the country of which there are 411, Lycoming is currently ranked 4th in the country in total fouls and 14th in the country in yellow cards.
Who are the Top 10 in the country in Fouls per game, not actually fouls...Fouls Per game would be a good indicator
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 24, 2015, 11:56:10 AM
Who are the Top 10 in the country in Fouls per game, not actually fouls...Fouls Per game would be a good indicator
Great question. However, I can not find that stat for all teams in the country to do a ranking.
Quote from: D3soccerwatcher on October 23, 2015, 10:42:50 PM
Saw the following stats on Lycoming today...
Lycoming currently leads all MAC (Freedom and Commonwealth) in total fouls (252) and yellow cards (29).
Among all D3 soccer programs in the country of which there are 411, Lycoming is currently ranked 4th in the country in total fouls and 14th in the country in yellow cards.
And you're point is?
Quote from: D3soccerwatcher on October 24, 2015, 01:55:31 PM
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 24, 2015, 11:56:10 AM
Who are the Top 10 in the country in Fouls per game, not actually fouls...Fouls Per game would be a good indicator
Great question. However, I can not find that stat for all teams in the country to do a ranking.
I mean if you really wanted to you could check the cumulative stats on the conference webpages...
FOULS GP No. Avg/G
1. Rowan 17 313 18.41
2. Montclair State 17 238 14.00
3. Kean 17 230 13.53
4. New Jersey City 15 212 14.13
5. Ramapo 17 208 12.24
6. Rutgers-Camden17 206 12.12
7. Rutgers-Newark 18 204 11.33
8. Stockton 17 199 11.71
9. William Paterson 15 159 10.60
10. The College ofNJ15 137 9.13
Miseri falls to FDU-Florham 5-3, also on the MACF Conf tourney bubble
Congrats Skip Roderick with 500 wins.
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 24, 2015, 05:07:09 PM
Quote from: D3soccerwatcher on October 23, 2015, 10:42:50 PM
Saw the following stats on Lycoming today...
Lycoming currently leads all MAC (Freedom and Commonwealth) in total fouls (252) and yellow cards (29).
Among all D3 soccer programs in the country of which there are 411, Lycoming is currently ranked 4th in the country in total fouls and 14th in the country in yellow cards.
And you're point is?
My point is they foul a lot and get cautioned by the ref a lot. Much more then most teams in the country. I didn't make a judgement call on that information, I just stated the facts.
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 24, 2015, 05:23:28 PM
FOULS GP No. Avg/G
1. Rowan 17 313 18.41
2. Montclair State 17 238 14.00
3. Kean 17 230 13.53
4. New Jersey City 15 212 14.13
5. Ramapo 17 208 12.24
6. Rutgers-Camden17 206 12.12
7. Rutgers-Newark 18 204 11.33
8. Stockton 17 199 11.71
9. William Paterson 15 159 10.60
10. The College ofNJ15 137 9.13
Lycoming:
16.75 fouls per game
2.06 yellow cards per game
Where does Haverford's win over F&M put them in NCAA rankings? They will have highest SOS of top 4 and now above 80% winning percentage.
With Wesleyan losing twice they are out of ranking and with win should make them 5-2.
LGOTB, Mr. Right, MAF thoughts?
1. F&M
2. Haverford
3. Lycoming
4. E-town
5. Eastern
6. Messiah
7. Dickinson
8. JHU. Does Kings break in with loss to Miseri but win over Eastern? SOS will improve, but may not be .500
Quote from: D3soccerwatcher on October 25, 2015, 12:57:01 AM
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 24, 2015, 05:07:09 PM
Quote from: D3soccerwatcher on October 23, 2015, 10:42:50 PM
Saw the following stats on Lycoming today...
Lycoming currently leads all MAC (Freedom and Commonwealth) in total fouls (252) and yellow cards (29).
Among all D3 soccer programs in the country of which there are 411, Lycoming is currently ranked 4th in the country in total fouls and 14th in the country in yellow cards.
Sounds like you were insinuating something...that's a waste of a post and dumb stat to talk about. Stop wasting you're time.
And you're point is?
My point is they foul a lot and get cautioned by the ref a lot. Much more then most teams in the country. I didn't make a judgement call on that information, I just stated the facts.
Quote from: D3soccerwatcher on October 25, 2015, 12:57:01 AM
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 24, 2015, 05:07:09 PM
Quote from: D3soccerwatcher on October 23, 2015, 10:42:50 PM
Saw the following stats on Lycoming today...
Lycoming currently leads all MAC (Freedom and Commonwealth) in total fouls (252) and yellow cards (29).
Among all D3 soccer programs in the country of which there are 411, Lycoming is currently ranked 4th in the country in total fouls and 14th in the country in yellow cards.
And you're point is?
My point is they foul a lot and get cautioned by the ref a lot. Much more then most teams in the country. I didn't make a judgement call on that information, I just stated the facts.
Well that's an interesting stat to bring up out of the blue. Seems like you aren't a fan of them from other posts I have read by you in regards to them. Any reason why? Mr. Right gives justifications to his opinions at least when asked about particular teams so you know where he is coming from. Would love to hear your thoughts. :D
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 25, 2015, 08:20:26 AM
1. F&M
2. Haverford
3. Lycoming
4. E-town
5. Eastern
6. Messiah
7. Dickinson
8. JHU. Does Kings break in with loss to Miseri but win over Eastern? SOS will improve, but may not be .500
Looks right and I think JHU will remain.
After the weekend here are the updated records:
Mid-Atlantic Overall Record
1. Franklin & Marshall 14-1-0
Loss 3-1 @Haverford
@Gettysburg, Dickinson remaining
RvR=2-1-0
A loss was almost due for the Diplomats. Hurts but they need to win out.
2. Lycoming 13-1-2
Won 4-2 vs Hood
Oneonta St., Widener remaining
RvR=1-1
Unbeaten streak is now 15 since losing opening game. Big mid-week game vs Oneonta St.
3. Elizabethtown 15-1-1
Won 3-0 @Drew
Scranton remaining
RvR=2-1
Tough remaining game but seem to be in cruise control. Clinched regular season Landmark title and 1st seed in playoffs. Skip gets win #500 as well!
4. Haverford 12-3-0
Won 3-1 vs F&M
@Ursinus, Swat remaining
RvR=4-3
Big win and sole possession of 1st place in Centennial. Wesleyan 5-0 loss to Amherst could bump them from rankings which would take away loss in the RvR. They should climb in the next release.
5. Eastern 13-1-2
Lost 1-0 @Kings
Goucher, FDU remaining
RvR=2-0
1st loss of the season at Kings. Might not be a bad thing to get a loss out of the way. Need to in MACF or at-large bid hopes get scary.
6. Dickinson 9-3-3
Tied 1-1 @Swat
Muhlenberg, @F&M remaining
RvR=0-2-1
Ties don't help their situation. Can see them swapping spots with Messiah.
7. Messiah 11-4-1
Won 6-0 @Albright
Stevenson, Alvernia remaining
RvR=0-3
Can't see them losing another game in regular season. 3 wins in a row after losing at Lycoming outscoring opposition 12-0 in that stretch.
8. Johns Hopkins 8-4-3
Tied 1-1 @Muhlenberg
McDaniel, @Wash. College
RvR=0-3-2
Can't keep racking up ties. Don't think they drop out but are on the verge of swapping with Kings/Gettysburg soon.
As for the teams on the outside looking in.
Drew 11-4-2
Lost 3-0 @Etown
Moravian remaining
RvR=0-2
Loss at Etown eliminates them. Need to win Landmark to make NCAA's.
Gettysburg 9-4-1
Won 1-0 @Wash. College
F&M, McDaniel remaining
RvR=0-3-1
Stays alive with a big conference road win. Still on the outside looking in.
Kings 13-3-1
Won 1-0 vs Eastern
Elmira, @Del Val remaining
RvR=1-0-0
SOS is .455. Will go up after yesterday but then back down after Del Val game. Handed Eastern 1st loss of season.
Good information MAF- it will be very interesting to see where everyone lines up.
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 25, 2015, 09:41:26 AM
After the weekend here are the updated records:
Mid-Atlantic Overall Record
1. Franklin & Marshall 14-1-0
Loss 3-1 @Haverford
@Gettysburg, Dickinson remaining
RvR=2-1-0
A loss was almost due for the Diplomats. Hurts but they need to win out.
2. Lycoming 13-1-2
Won 4-2 vs Hood
Oneonta St., Widener remaining
RvR=1-1
Unbeaten streak is now 15 since losing opening game. Big mid-week game vs Oneonta St.
3. Elizabethtown 15-1-1
Won 3-0 @Drew
Scranton remaining
RvR=2-1
Tough remaining game but seem to be in cruise control. Clinched regular season Landmark title and 1st seed in playoffs. Skip gets win #500 as well!
4. Haverford 12-3-0
Won 3-1 vs F&M
@Ursinus, Swat remaining
RvR=4-3
Big win and sole possession of 1st place in Centennial. Wesleyan 5-0 loss to Amherst could bump them from rankings which would take away loss in the RvR. They should climb in the next release.
5. Eastern 13-1-2
Lost 1-0 @Kings
Goucher, FDU remaining
RvR=2-0
1st loss of the season at Kings. Might not be a bad thing to get a loss out of the way. Need to in MACF or at-large bid hopes get scary.
6. Dickinson 9-3-3
Tied 1-1 @Swat
Muhlenberg, @F&M remaining
RvR=0-2-1
Ties don't help their situation. Can see them swapping spots with Messiah.
7. Messiah 11-4-1
Won 6-0 @Albright
Stevenson, Alvernia remaining
RvR=0-3
Can't see them losing another game in regular season. 3 wins in a row after losing at Lycoming outscoring opposition 12-0 in that stretch.
8. Johns Hopkins 8-4-3
Tied 1-1 @Muhlenberg
McDaniel, @Wash. College
RvR=0-3-2
Can't keep racking up ties. Don't think they drop out but are on the verge of swapping with Kings/Gettysburg soon.
As for the teams on the outside looking in.
Drew 11-4-2
Lost 3-0 @Etown
Moravian remaining
RvR=0-2
Loss at Etown eliminates them. Need to win Landmark to make NCAA's.
Gettysburg 9-4-1
Won 1-0 @Wash. College
F&M, McDaniel remaining
RvR=0-3-1
Stays alive with a big conference road win. Still on the outside looking in.
Kings 13-3-1
Won 1-0 vs Eastern
Elmira, @Del Val remaining
RvR=1-0-0
SOS is .455. Will go up after yesterday but then back down after Del Val game. Handed Eastern 1st loss of season.
My NCAA Regional Ranking Predictions:
1. F&M
2. Lycoming
3. Haverford
4. Etown
5. Eastern
6. Messiah
7. Dickinson
8. Hopkins
----------------------
9. Kings
10. Cabrini
11. Gettysburg
12. Drew
My NSCAA Regional Ranking Predictions:
1. F&M
2. Etown
T3. Eastern
T3. Lycoming
5. Haverford
6. Cabrini
7. Messiah
8. Dickinson
9. Kings
10. Hopkins
RV: Gettysburg, Drew
My Top 25 Poll Predictions:
F&M=top 10
Haverford= top 15
Etown= top 15
Lycoming= top 25
Eastern= top 25
Messiah= RV
Dickinson= RV
Hopkins=N/A
Kings=N/A
Cabrini=RV
Drew=N/A
Gettysburg=N/A
Massey Ratings as of 10/25/15:
2. F&M
4. Haverford
10. Etown
11. Lycoming
22. Messiah
27. Eastern
31. Dickinson
43. Gettysburg
53. Hopkins
86. Drew
Good stuff from MAF.
A lot of meaningful games left in Mid Atlantic soccer.
http://www.nscaa.com/rankings/4800
Poll 7-October 27th, 2015
Rank School Prev. W-L-T
1 Franklin & Marshall College 14-1-0
2 Elizabethtown College 15-1-1
3 Haverford College 12-3-0
4 Lycoming College 13-1-2
5 Eastern University 13-1-2
6 Cabrini College 11-1-3
7 Messiah College 11-4-1
8 Dickinson College 9-3-3
9 Johns Hopkins University 8-4-3
10 King's College 13-3-1
Saw this debate over in the NESAC thread. Might as well discuss it here! I know I missed some, but these are the ones that stood out to me either from previous years that are playing well again or that I was impressed with when seeing them play this year.
Mid-Atlantic Nominations:
Top forward:
Drew Demich (Hood)- 21 goals, 2 assists, 44pts, nation's leading goal scorer as a Junior
Chase TenBrook (F&M)- 11 goals, 1 assist, 23 pts
Gavin Yingling (USMM)- 12 goals, 2 assists, 26pts
Alfred Hylton-Dei (Dickinson)- 8 goals, 6 assists, 22pts
Top Midfielder:
Jordan Logan (Lycoming)- 13 goals, 3 assists, 29pts
Abdullahi Abdi (Lycoming)- 9 goals, 8 assists, 26pts
Tori Remondelli (Widener)- 9 goals, 3 assists, 21pts
Will Corkery (Haverford)- 5 goals, 11 assists, 21pts
Danny Rowe (Messiah)- 8 goals, 2 assists, 18pts
Best Defender:
Haven't seen all the teams enough to decide for this one. Any nominations?
Best Goalie:
Rodrigo Barrera (Etown)-.69 GAA, 7 shutouts, .843 save pct
Best Coach:
Shane Rineer (Haverford)- 12-3-0
Nate Gibboney (Lycoming)- 13-1-2
Skip Roderick (Etown)- 15-1-1
Dan Wagner (F&M)- 14-1-0
Player Of Year:
Sam Yarosh (Haverford)- 14 goals, 5 assists, 33pts
Rookie Of Year:
Gilbert Waso (Etown)-9 goals, 6 assists, 24 pts
*Stats as of 10/26/15*
Best Defender - Martin Favre - Elizabethtown - Left back with 8 goals and 3 assists and a key to the teams defense that is giving up .71 goals per game
I would not count out Haverford being NCAA Regionally Ranked #1 tomorrow. Certainly #2
Great work Shooter and IGTF he is a very solid defender. I would agree with you on that nomination. Kyle Thomas from Lycoming is also another solid player to keep on your radar. I saw that he has been Defensive POW for the MAC Commonwealth on multiple occasions. He helped lead Lycoming to be the last team in the country to give up a goal last year as a freshman and they posted 13 shutouts with him at CB. From the archives I looked at he had 3 goals last year including one against Rochester. This year he has helped the team to 9 shutouts and a clinching goal vs Messiah and has added 2 assists. Interesting to see a CB with assists but I am assuming he would be the target with his size (6'6") and flick it on for other players.
Another defender I would throw in the mix comes from the MAC Freedom. John Remsberg is a senior for Eastern and has played big minutes this season for them. He has helped lead the Eagles defense to 9 shutouts and a 13-1-2 record. Flying under the radar since he doesn't do a lot offensively but should not be overlooked by any means.
As for another goalie that you could add to the list, I would go with Manhattanville's senior goalie Willie Sibler. He has a current 455 minute scoreless streak and just won his 5th MAC Defensive POW award on the Freedom side this season. He has 8 shutouts on the year and is ranked 25th nationally among Division III goalkeepers with an .862 save percentage. He might be the main reason why Manhattanville is still in the playoff hunt.
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 27, 2015, 12:09:57 PM
I would not count out Haverford being NCAA Regionally Ranked #1 tomorrow. Certainly #2
My NCAA Regional Ranking Predictions:
1. F&M
2. Lycoming
3. Haverford
4. Etown
5. Eastern
6. Messiah
7. Dickinson
8. Hopkins
----------------------
9. Kings
10. Cabrini
11. Gettysburg
12. Drew
Mr. Right---this is what I was thinking but Haverford very well could be #2. I don't think they will be #1 though. You can't punish F&M for a 3-1 loss on the road and give a 3 loss team the top seed because of it. If Haverford had 1 or 2 losses it would be more plausible.
I keep seeing Etown moved down to 4 in everyone's ncaa ranking predictions...I'm curious as to why they should be dropped for beating Drew at Drew 3-0 and winning midweek as well? I could see F&M dropping a couple spots though.
Could see this in my opinion
1. Lyco
2. Etown
3. F&M
4. Haverford - great result against F&M - could bump them to 3 and F&M go 4 but doubt that since Haverford has 3 losses
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 27, 2015, 01:26:08 PM
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 27, 2015, 12:09:57 PM
I would not count out Haverford being NCAA Regionally Ranked #1 tomorrow. Certainly #2
My NCAA Regional Ranking Predictions:
1. F&M
2. Lycoming
3. Haverford
4. Etown
5. Eastern
6. Messiah
7. Dickinson
8. Hopkins
----------------------
9. Kings
10. Cabrini
11. Gettysburg
12. Drew
Mr. Right---this is what I was thinking but Haverford very well could be #2. I don't think they will be #1 though. You can't punish F&M for a 3-1 loss on the road and give a 3 loss team the top seed because of it. If Haverford had 1 or 2 losses it would be more plausible.
Yes...but Haverford has an umatched 4-2-0 Record v Ranked compared to a 2-1-0 for F&M..You are probably right but 4 wins v Ranked will be extremely favorable and they will def jump Lycoming and anyone else
Quote from: igotthisfeeling on October 27, 2015, 01:37:42 PM
I keep seeing Etown moved down to 4 in everyone's ncaa ranking predictions...I'm curious as to why they should be dropped for beating Drew at Drew 3-0 and winning midweek as well? I could see F&M dropping a couple spots though.
Could see this in my opinion
1. Lyco
2. Etown
3. F&M
4. Haverford - great result against F&M - could bump them to 3 and F&M go 4 but doubt that since Haverford has 3 losses
With the RvR coming out Haverford will jump. I don't think F&M will drop after 1 loss to a top tier team. That would be harsh and scary for the rest of the region if they are dropping teams for 1 loss to a good team. Especially all the way down to #3 or #4. That means one slip up could ruin an entire season. They do only have 1 loss which is still the best in the region. There is no reason for them to not be #1. I think F&M will and should remain #1 followed by Haverford at #2, Lycoming at #3, Etown at #4, Eastern at #5, Messiah at #6, Dickinson at #7 and I think you will see Gettysburg sneak in at #8 over Hopkins.
I understand your reasoning and what not. In the end, I don't see it really being an issue as they are all going to the dance anyway. Besides F&M and Haverford will meet again in the CC Final, so one of them will have another loss on their record and the rankings will change, but for now its fun to talk about trying to predict who goes where.
Quote from: igotthisfeeling on October 28, 2015, 08:26:03 AM
I understand your reasoning and what not. In the end, I don't see it really being an issue as they are all going to the dance anyway. Besides F&M and Haverford will meet again in the CC Final, so one of them will have another loss on their record and the rankings will change, but for now its fun to talk about trying to predict who goes where.
Yes I agree. And there is a lot of games left to be played so I wouldn't say they are all going to the dance just yet. Anything could happen especially when you get desperate teams in conference playoffs knowing that their only way into the tournament is winning the AQ.
The CC is one of the toughest in the country. Last year you had #2 vs #4 in the final so any of the teams making playoffs in that conference can win it. There are no guarantees that F&M and Haverford make the final although that's what I would bet on happening as you said yourself.
Will be interested in seeing how this weeks games play out with nasty weather and conference playoffs bids on the line. Usually brings out the best in teams.
Any cancellations so far in the Mid-Atlantic?
Quote from: backyarddawg on October 28, 2015, 12:00:17 PM
Any cancellations so far in the Mid-Atlantic?
Messiah and Stevenson postponed until tomorrow.
NCAA 2nd Release
Mid-Atlantic In-Division Record Overall Record
1. Franklin & Marshall 14-1-0 14-1-0
2. Haverford 12-3-0 12-3-0
3. Lycoming 13-1-2 13-1-2
4. Elizabethtown 15-1-1 15-1-1
5. Eastern 13-1-2 13-1-2
6. Dickinson 9-3-3 9-3-3
7. Messiah 11-4-1 11-4-1
8. Johns Hopkins 8-4-3 8-4-3
9. Gettysburg 9-4-1 9-4-1
http://www.d3soccer.com/rankings/2015/Men/regional-rankings-2
Pretty much what we expected from this region. Here is the link to the data sheets.
MID-ATLANTIC REGION (data sheet)
Rank School Overall SOS RvR Prev.
1. F&M 14-1-0 0.559 2-1-0 1
2. Haverford 12-3-0 0.606 4-3-0 4
3. Lycoming 13-1-2 0.554 1-1-0 2
4. Elizabethtown 15-1-1 0.526 2-1-0 3
5. Eastern 13-1-2 0.508 2-0-0 5
6. Dickinson 9-3-3 0.566 0-2-1 6
7. Messiah 11-4-1 0.593 0-3-0 7
8. Johns Hopkins 8-4-3 0.595 0-3-2 8
9. Gettysburg 9-4-1 0.546 0-3-1 --
Just looked over stats and believe committee got Haverford RvR wrong:
Wins- F&M, Dickinson, Gettysburg, JHU and Stockton
Losses- Montclair St and Stevens
If the once ranked always ranked isn't into account then they are 5-2 as Wesleyan dropped out.
MAF or LGOTB am I wrong?
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 28, 2015, 02:00:50 PM
MID-ATLANTIC REGION (data sheet)
Rank School Overall SOS RvR Prev.
1. F&M 14-1-0 0.559 2-1-0 1
2. Haverford 12-3-0 0.606 4-3-0 4
3. Lycoming 13-1-2 0.554 1-1-0 2
4. Elizabethtown 15-1-1 0.526 2-1-0 3
5. Eastern 13-1-2 0.508 2-0-0 5
6. Dickinson 9-3-3 0.566 0-2-1 6
7. Messiah 11-4-1 0.593 0-3-0 7
8. Johns Hopkins 8-4-3 0.595 0-3-2 8
9. Gettysburg 9-4-1 0.546 0-3-1 --
Gettysburg wasn't ranked last week and Wesleyan was, so Haverford's record versus teams ranked last week is correct at 4-3-0.
What is shown in the data sheets (and on D3soccer.com) is the data used to rank teams this week. So that data can't be based on who was ranked this week because that isn't yet known when the data sheets are compiled and given to the committee.
Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 28, 2015, 02:27:01 PM
Gettysburg wasn't ranked last week and Wesleyan was, so Haverford's record versus teams ranked last week is correct at 4-3-0.
What is shown in the data sheets (and on D3soccer.com) is the data used to rank teams this week. So that data can't be based on who was ranked this week because that isn't yet known when the data sheets are compiled and given to the committee.
There is usually only 8 teams for this region too so not sure why they have 9 this week? Anybody know about that and why that might be?
FW got it- makes sense as they would be 5-2 going into next week based on this past weeks rankings?
MAF no clue maybe a tie?
Lycoming's game vs. Oneonta St. was cancelled. No way to know if that's to Lycoming's favor or not. A win would have been huge should they not get the Commonwealth AQ, but would a loss have doomed them if they needed an at-large berth?
Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 28, 2015, 05:12:01 PM
Lycoming's game vs. Oneonta St. was cancelled. No way to know if that's to Lycoming's favor or not. A win would have been huge should they not get the Commonwealth AQ, but would a loss have doomed them if they needed an at-large berth?
Rumor from a few colleagues of mine that live up that way said that they had every intention of playing the game. The reffing crew got their and observed and spoke with both teams. Seems like Oneonta St. didn't care either way and that the refs didn't want to get wet. I also heard through the grapevine that the field drained pretty well considering all the rain the region has got but a few puddles made it "unplayable" in the refs eyes.
Once again this is all hearsay, but it would make sense considering Oneonta St. has clinched the top spot in the SUNYAC and most likely have a spot locked in the NCAA's. Any other games get cancelled? I was looking forward to this game today.
Lycoming better hope they get to that final because Eastern and ETOWN both with 1 losses and right behind Lycoming have 2 regionally ranked wins
The refs have final say over cancellations. Now usually you have regional refs so I imagine Lycoming knew the refs but not sure...Lycoming needed that game for SOS, Oneonta did not. That .556 SOS could have been boosted significantly. Alos, even if Lycoming lost but they had a 1-2-0 RvR but a .580 SOS that looks VERY Good.
Oneonta St. maybe could have lifted Lycoming's SOS to around .570, but not .580. But combined with Messiah in the Commenwealth final, an SOS around .580 wouldn't have been out of the question. (The Commonwealth semifinal won't help much at all, but wouldn't hurt.)
As it now stands without the Oneonta game, Lyco's SOS probably can only rise to the high .560's.
Also, looking around to other regions..There are a ton of regions with teams with possibly 3-4 wins v ranked..The South Atlantic a good example..The NJAC very well could get 3-4 Pool C's alone if an upstart like Camden wins the tournament. I think New England, Mid-Atlantic and North all suffer bids this year. The West, South Atlantic and Great Lakes pick up 1-2 more than usual.
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 28, 2015, 06:29:21 PM
Lycoming better hope they get to that final because Eastern and ETOWN both with 1 losses and right behind Lycoming have 2 regionally ranked wins
Eastern and Etown's SOS is poor though compared to Lycoming, Haverford and F&M. If there would have been a switch in the rankings it would have happened this week don't you think?
Quick comparison:Etown SOS dropped to .526 from .538 and they added in the RvR of 2-1-0.
Eastern SOS went up from .503 to .508 and they added in the RvR of 2-0-0 which includes a head to head win @Lycoming.
Lycoming SOS dropped to .554 from .564 and they added in the RvR of 1-1-0.
If either of those teams would have passed them it would have happened yesterday. I think we can agree that SOS and winning percentage plays the biggest factor when comparing teams. Eastern and Lycoming have identical records, Eastern has the head to head, but Lycoming's SOS is through the roof compared to them which is why they are 2 spots ahead even with the loss to Eastern. But yes they do need to make it to the final. Anything short of that and they are in serious jeopardy of not making NCAA's.
My thoughts are that if Eastern does not win the Freedom then they will not get an at large bid. If Lycoming loses to Messiah in the Commonwealth final then they are borderline and could go either way but it would depend on what other teams do like Etown, Eastern, Dickinson, F&M/Haverford etc. If Etown loses in the Landmark playoffs they would be in the same boat as Lycoming would be in. If all three of these teams win their respective conferences and F&M/Haverford win the Centennial you will have all 5 in right their which gives Dickinson and Messiah a great possibility of sneaking in...but both those teams, especially Messiah, need that to happen. Gettysburg is all but done after last night's loss and Hopkins is a loss or tie away from being finished as well as Dickinson. A lot is hindering on the Centennial playoffs for the rest of the teams in this region.
Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 28, 2015, 05:12:01 PM
Lycoming's game vs. Oneonta St. was cancelled. No way to know if that's to Lycoming's favor or not. A win would have been huge should they not get the Commonwealth AQ, but would a loss have doomed them if they needed an at-large berth?
I agree with that 100%. Spot on FW! Maybe not doom but would not have helped the cause.
Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 28, 2015, 06:49:34 PM
Oneonta St. maybe could have lifted Lycoming's SOS to around .570, but not .580. But combined with Messiah in the Commenwealth final, an SOS around .580 wouldn't have been out of the question. (The Commonwealth semifinal won't help much at all, but wouldn't hurt.)
As it now stands without the Oneonta game, Lyco's SOS probably can only rise to the high .560's.
All depends how the Commonwealth shapes up from a seeding standpoint. We know Lycoming and Messiah will be 1 and 2 either way, but 3-5 is the question and the 1 seed won't know until 4 and 5 play. We do know after last night who 3 of the 4 teams will be and I think the biggest shock, at least for me, is the crash and burn of Alvernia. They will not making conference playoffs after only having 2 losses in non-conference play (5-2-4) which included a win over Dickinson and ties with Eastern, Etown, Cabrini, York, and a 1-0 loss to F&M. They are now 7-6-5 and 2-4-1 in conference play. One of the biggest disappointments since non-conference play has ended.
The MAC Commonwealth currently looks like this:
Lycoming * ----6-0-1-----19pts-----13-1-2
Messiah *------5-1-0------15pts-----11-4-1
Widener *------4-3-0------12pts-----8-8-1
Lebanon Valley *4-3-0-----12pts------7-9-0
Arcadia----------3-2-2-----11pts------10-5-3
Hood------------3-4-0-----9pts--------12-7-0
Alvernia---------2-4-1-----7pts---------7-6-5
Stevenson------2-4-0------6pts--------5-10-1
Albright---------0-8-0------0pts--------1-15-1
Remaining match-ups:
Stevenson @ Messiah---postponed from last night to tonight
Alvernia @ Messiah
Widener @ Lycoming
Leb Val @ Stevenson
Arcadia @ Hood----winner of this game will make playoffs
Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 28, 2015, 02:27:01 PM
Gettysburg wasn't ranked last week and Wesleyan was, so Haverford's record versus teams ranked last week is correct at 4-3-0.
What is shown in the data sheets (and on D3soccer.com) is the data used to rank teams this week. So that data can't be based on who was ranked this week because that isn't yet known when the data sheets are compiled and given to the committee.
+K
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 28, 2015, 06:56:22 PM
Also, looking around to other regions..There are a ton of regions with teams with possibly 3-4 wins v ranked..The South Atlantic a good example..The NJAC very well could get 3-4 Pool C's alone if an upstart like Camden wins the tournament. I think New England, Mid-Atlantic and North all suffer bids this year. The West, South Atlantic and Great Lakes pick up 1-2 more than usual.
In my opinion, they will not take a 4 or 5 loss team over a 1 or 2 loss team from those other regions if they have a good SOS as well (lets say an SOS above .545?). Teams that are pretty much done from the NJAC are TCNJ, Kean, Camden, and Newark. You will see MSU, Stockton and probably Rowan get in (at this point). TCNJ wins they are in and Newark is out and out for good of NCAA's. If TCNJ loses they are out and Newark is in and TCNJ would be out of NCAA's.
Camden vs Stockton and Rowan vs TCNJ are huge games tonight in terms of at-large bids down the road.
If Camden wins the league then yes it is plausible that the NJAC may get 3-4 teams, but if MSU or Stockton win the league I think the NJAC gets 3 max in NCAA's.
All that I was saying is that it is quite possible the mid-atlantic gets only 1 Pool C....The Haverford / F&M loser. Dickinson and Messiah have no shot and ETOWN , Eastern and yes Lycoming all have very sketchy SOS or RvR...The committee will just move to one of those regions where you see teams with .580 or .575 SOS and 3-4 RvR...There is no rule that a committee MUST take a certain amount of teams for a region if any at all.
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on October 29, 2015, 08:41:11 AM
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 28, 2015, 06:56:22 PM
Also, looking around to other regions..There are a ton of regions with teams with possibly 3-4 wins v ranked..The South Atlantic a good example..The NJAC very well could get 3-4 Pool C's alone if an upstart like Camden wins the tournament. I think New England, Mid-Atlantic and North all suffer bids this year. The West, South Atlantic and Great Lakes pick up 1-2 more than usual.
In my opinion, they will not take a 4 or 5 loss team over a 1 or 2 loss team from those other regions if they have a good SOS as well (lets say an SOS above .545?). Teams that are pretty much done from the NJAC are TCNJ, Kean, Camden, and Newark. You will see MSU, Stockton and probably Rowan get in (at this point). TCNJ wins they are in and Newark is out and out for good of NCAA's. If TCNJ loses they are out and Newark is in and TCNJ would be out of NCAA's.
Then you have not observed the way this committee works..They most certainly will take a 4-5 loss team over a 1-2 loss team if deserved. RUN and for that matter the whole NJAC is a complete mess...Teams winning 3 in a row then losing 7-1. However, RUN still has an attractive resume if they can reach that NJAC Final. They def have work to do but they have played 7-8 ranked teams compared to Lycoming's 1-2...That factors in BIG TIME...If you do not believe me go back to the November months of each year the past 4 years on this board and look at all the complaining about how "their 1 loss side missed out and a 5 loss side got in"...
Camden vs Stockton and Rowan vs TCNJ are huge games tonight in terms of at-large bids down the road.
If Camden wins the league then yes it is plausible that the NJAC may get 3-4 teams, but if MSU or Stockton win the league I think the NJAC gets 3 max in NCAA's.
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 29, 2015, 09:56:20 AM
All that I was saying is that it is quite possible the mid-atlantic gets only 1 Pool C....The Haverford / F&M loser. Dickinson and Messiah have no shot and ETOWN , Eastern and yes Lycoming all have very sketchy SOS or RvR...The committee will just move to one of those regions where you see teams with .580 or .575 SOS and 3-4 RvR...There is no rule that a committee MUST take a certain amount of teams for a region if any at all.
I understand that. I think only 1 would be harsh but there are other good teams out their. I think you will see 7 total(which includes AQ's) from the Mid-Atlantic. F&M/Fords as AQ and an at-large, Freedom AQ(probably Eastern-losing was the best thing for them), Commonwealth AQ(Lycoming or Messiah), Landmark AQ(Etown), CSAC AQ(Cabrini), and another at-large with a potential for a 8th(Lycoming if Messiah wins the Commonwealth + maybe a Dickinson??) Did I miss any conferences for an AQ?
The RvR really hurts the bottom 4 teams(counting Gettsyburg so #6-#9) in this region which would hold them back when compared to other resumes.
Messiah is now 12-4-1 and have won 4 straight since losing to Lycoming. All of which have been shutouts. They have outscored their opponents 16-0 in that span. Seems like they are finally starting to click like many of us anticipated. Any thoughts on their postseason chances?
MAF yes they are starting to roll but look at their opponents over that stretch. They are a team if in NCAA tournament would be super dangerous.
They are still 0-3 RvR. They have to win conference to go to NCAA.
The only way Messiah gets onto the at-large bubble is if Washington & Lee gets ranked next week so the Falcons would have a win versus a ranked opponent. If Messiah wins Saturday and in the semifinal, but lose to Lycoming in the final, they will have a 14-5-1 (.725) record and a SOS in the .605 range. Give them a win verus a ranked team and that's as good a resume as some at-large selections over recent years (e.g. Dominican and Texas-Dallas last year).
But does Washington & Lee have any shot of being ranked next week? (Note: W&L being ranked in the final unpublished rankings does nothing for Messiah's record vs. ranked teams which for those rankings will be based on who was ranked in the third and final published ranking).
If Washington & Lee defeat Roanoke Saturday, this is how they will compare to the currently ranked Salisbury and TCNJ who have none and one win verus ranked teams, respectively.
#5 Salisbury 11-3-3 (.735) | 0-1-1 RvR | 0.563 SOS last week, unlikely to change much
#8 TCNJ 10-5-2 (.647) | 1-4-1 RvR | 0.561 SOS last week, probably moves up from Rowan away loss
Wash & Lee 12-3-2 (.764) | 0-2-0 RvR | .511 SOS last week, but will climb a bit with Randolph away, Roanoke at home
It's not unreasonable to think W&L could snag the last spot in the rankings with a win Saturday. And while going undefeated in claiming the ODAC #1 seed doesn't directly count for anything in the quantitative criteria the committee considers, I think it would assure that their numbers are given full and fair consideration.
So, who knows.
Looking back at Messiah's position in the Mid-Atlantic rankings as that's half the battle before even getting compared to Pool C teams from other regions. They could move up ahead of Dickinson by selection time. If Eastern crashed out in the Freedom semifinals Messiah could even conceivably move up another spot since in that scenario, Eastern's SOS might be at or below .500 with missing out on playing King's in the Freedom final. But let's assume that Eastern reaches the Freedom final and the best Messiah can do is jump ahead of Dickinson. How could that happen?
If Dickinson beats F&M this Saturday then forget about Messiah passing them. But, if the Red Devils, who are also without a win versus a ranked team, lose to F&M this Saturday they probably drop into the Centennial #4-#5 match which won't help their SOS and if they lose in the playoffs (regardless which round) it would give them 5 total losses like Messiah to go along with a lower SOS. Then it might come down whether Dickinson can get a win vs. a ranked team. That would probably require winning a semifinal match as whoever they would play in a #4/#5 game most likely won't be ranked (Gettysburg already picked-up another loss this week, for JHU to drop into the #4/#5 match would mean losing Saturday, and Swat isn't and won't be ranked).
So, if . . .
. . . Washington & Lee wins Saturday and gets ranked next week, and
. . . Dickinson loses to F&M Saturday and doesn't reach the Centennial final next week,
all of which are reasonable scenarios, Messiah, even losing in the conference final to Lycoming, could end up #6 in the Mid-Atlantic with a .725 win pct., .605 SOS and 1 win vs. ranked teams.
And, if . . .
. . . Eastern and E-town claim their conferenc AQ's, and
. . . one of F&M and Haverford wins the Centennial AQ
Messiah would be the second Pool C team in the region behind F&M or Haverford.
And that would have them on the bubble for an at-large berth. Lots of if's and assumptions, but not unreasonable.
But I'm not counting on that. The Falcons NEED to beat Lycoming (or whoever upsets Lyco with them looking ahead) in the Commonwealth final.
Rutgers-Camden finds themselves in nearly the same situation where they were last season, 11-7-1 heading into the NJAC tournament and playing Newark for the 2nd time. However, Camden will have played 9 games or so vs ranked. If they make it to the NJAC title beating Newark 2x, Stockton 2x, Rowan... They will get a Pool C with 8 blemishes
It looks like MSU and Stockton will make it, with the wildcard team that gets to the NJAC final as the 3rd team.
Messiah earns the AQ, Lycoming pool C
MACF only gets 1 again this season, IMO
Dickinson gets in along with Haverford and F&M
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on October 30, 2015, 01:48:27 PM
Rutgers-Camden finds themselves in nearly the same situation where they were last season, 11-7-1 heading into the NJAC tournament and playing Newark for the 2nd time. However, Camden will have played 9 games or so vs ranked. If they make it to the NJAC title beating Newark 2x, Stockton 2x, Rowan... They will get a Pool C with 8 blemishes
It looks like MSU and Stockton will make it, with the wildcard team that gets to the NJAC final as the 3rd team.
Messiah earns the AQ, Lycoming pool C
MACF only gets 1 again this season, IMO
Dickinson gets in along with Haverford and F&M
I can see that playing out. Freedom is a one bid league. Kings and Eastern's SOS just kills them.
I can't imagine an 8-loss team getting a Pool C berth. Never been done. If they win Saturday and are ranked next week, and then win the semifinal, then I'll take a second look at their chances.
Dickinson still has work to do, IMO. Their SOS is solid but not high (it will get a bump from F&M Saturday) and they still lack a win versus ranked teams. And right now they only have one tie versus ranked teams, so it's not like Salisbury's three ties to make up for no wins last year. In other words, I don't think they can lose to F&M Saturday and lose in the #4/#5 playoff game still get an at-large berth. I don't see how a single tie vs. ranked teams can compensate for no wins vs. ranked teams, 5 overall loses, and a solid but not outstanding SOS. That's not saying I don't think they'll get a berth, only that I think they still have to add something to the resume. Whether they can do that or not, I don't know and won't try to predict.
Will be somewhere between very surprised and stunned if Messiah doesn't win the AQ. And riding that momentum no one will want to play them. I'm sure all Messiah teams face pressure to live up to the reputation of the program, but one would think the pressure would be different this year, coming at the tournament in more of a dangerous underdog role instead of a Messiah 50/50 versus the rest of the field.
Alot of pipe dreams being thrown around in this region which I understand because of loyalties to teams.
Camden MUST get the AQ. Same as last year, mid season swoon killed them. Playing like one of the best NJAC teams now but they must win AQ.
W&L with that weak SOS I would find VERY hard to argue they will get ranked.
Dickinson can control it's own destiny a bit liked I talked about in the UAA thread because of the opportunities presented to them with playing ranked teams in the coming weeks. However, I do not think they can win those games realistically.
Messiah with a nice SOS might have a chance but not w/o that ranked win.
In the 29 times Messiah has played Lycoming in program history, Lycoming has won 3 times and never beaten Messiah twice in the same season. As good as Lycoming is right now they do not have experience in big games and Messiah has tons of it. Plus Messiah is coming in as bit of an underdog...an extra motivational factor given the expectations year in and year out on this program. I think Messiah will win the AQ. Lycoming will still get it in Pool C. That's my thoughts. But conversely the conf final will be on that small field at Lycoming and they are one of the top fouling teams in the nation so there will be little room for Messiah to avoid the physical play, so Lycoming will be able to play their game. Lycoming has virtually the same number of fouls as they do total shots for the season (they are also among the top teams in the nation in yellow cards averaging over 2 per game)- that speaks to style of play that many purists don't like but has and could continue to help them win. We will know the real answer to all this one week from now. It should be interesting.
This is my point about Midd and Amherst and I guess Lycoming who I have not seen play. Teams that play physical and are fouling can / will take more skillful teams out of their rhythm.
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 31, 2015, 10:46:08 AM
This is my point about Midd and Amherst and I guess Lycoming who I have not seen play. Teams that play physical and are fouling can / will take more skillful teams out of their rhythm.
Agreed Mr. Right. I've seen most of the teams in this region and by no means is Lycoming a dirty team. They press defensively and turn opponents over and maybe get a foul called when they miss a tackle but to insinuate that they are dirty is childish. No wonder you have -45 karma.
I didn't say they were "dirty". IThe other guy did. I have not seen them play yet. I will say I LOVE teams that press and work extremely hard and if there are fouls then so be it. That is different than what the other guy was implying
And if you can find a team that has beaten Measiah twice in the same season in the last 15 years by all mean share but that's a fact that means nothing seeing that no one has probably beaten Messih twice in the same season or even get to face them twice in the same season. You're ruining the boards with this bogus stuff.
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 31, 2015, 11:00:33 AM
I didn't say they were "dirty". IThe other guy did. I have not seen them play yet. I will say I LOVE teams that press and work extremely hard and if there are fouls then so be it. That is different than what the other guy was implying
Oh i know my first part where I agreed with you was for you the other part was for D3 soccer watcher. Should have been more clear with that my mistake. That's why I put-45 karma in which you don't have but he does. Thought that was enough clarification ;D
Please read my post again. I never said Lycoming was dirty and never placed any kind of judgment on the facts (I try very hard to only post accurate facts). I don't make up the stats I just report them. To what extent a team's stats reflect their play...you'll have to determine that for yourself. I did describe they play as "physical", but we probably agree on that. Also I did say soccer purist probably won't like the fouling/YC's - and I'm sure we can agree that is true. But I also acknowledge that this type of play can and does work and it can have an impact. It's very viable and there's nothing "wrong" with it. It's a part of the game. You interpret the style as high defensive energy and pressing and that's a very valid opinion. I never actually gave my opinion...you assumed I had an opinion and you tried to articulate for me.
Lycoming is a very good team who have a ton of quality wins this season...they also have been called for a lot of fouls and been issued a lot of yellow cards relative to the other hundreds of D3 soccer teams this year (that's simply a fact). Interpretation of what that may or may not mean is up to you. I'll just keep trying to report the facts.
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 31, 2015, 11:01:45 AM
And if you can find a team that has beaten Measiah twice in the same season in the last 15 years by all mean share but that's a fact that means nothing seeing that no one has probably beaten Messih twice in the same season or even get to face them twice in the same season. You're ruining the boards with this bogus stuff.
Teams that have played Messiah twice in the same year...
2014 - Alvernia, Lycoming
2013 - Lycoming,
2012 - Alvernia, LVC
2011 - Elizabethtown, Alvernia
2010 - Elizabethtown, LVC
2009 - LVC, Arcadia
2008 - Lycoming, Widener
I'll stop there, but there are many more. You are correct, as least in the past 7 seasons that I researched here, no one has beaten Messiah twice. But many have had the opportunity, including Lycoming (three times), and no one has done it (yet) - that was my point. I'm not saying it can't happen. I'm just saying history says it is very hard for anyone to do. And I sided with history when giving my opinion of how the conf play-offs might pan out. There's nothing "bogus" about that.
Quote from: D3soccerwatcher on October 31, 2015, 12:04:17 PM
Please read my post again. I never said Lycoming was dirty and never placed any kind of judgment on the facts (I try very hard to only post accurate facts). I don't make up the stats I just report them. To what extent a team's stats reflect their play...you'll have to determine that for yourself. I did describe they play as "physical", but we probably agree on that. Also I did say soccer purist probably won't like the fouling/YC's - and I'm sure we can agree that is true. But I also acknowledge that this type of play can and does work and it can have an impact. It's very viable and there's nothing "wrong" with it. It's a part of the game. You interpret the style as high defensive energy and pressing and that's a very valid opinion. I never actually gave my opinion...you assumed I had an opinion and you tried to articulate for me.
Lycoming is a very good team who have a ton of quality wins this season...they also have been called for a lot of fouls and been issued a lot of yellow cards relative to the other hundreds of D3 soccer teams this year (that's simply a fact). Interpretation of what that may or may not mean is up to you. I'll just keep trying to report the facts.
Nice cover up. You would be a good journalist. This is the 4th or 5th time you have brought up this same topic/point about Lycoming. And as i said you are "insinuating" that they are a dirty team or else there would be no need to keep mentioning this. I have finally taken the bait on it so let us discuss it then?
And as for the teams who have played them twice its been all conference opponents who then face them again in the conference tournament. And I asked if you could find a team that has beaten Messiah twice in the last 15...not a list of who they played regular season and conference playoffs. The closest to that happening was probably in 2013.
You are entitled to your opinion by all means so here is mine...you're a Messiah bias and anti-any other school besides Messiah. You are singling out Lycoming in particular because you feel threatened by them. They have taken down your Messiah twice in the last 3 years which isn't a typical occurrence. All of that is fine but I own up to a team I follow when they struggle or slip up. I do not try and cover for them. If you read previously I attended grad school at Eastern...so I tend to cheer for them. But I have no problem saying they have struggled as of late and really botched their chances. Their SOS is horrid, record is outstanding and RvR is solid. But they also will now be the #2 seed in the Freedom playoffs and have to travel to Kings again if they both make the final...a place that they just lost. I am worried about them in playoffs because I do not think their resume is good enough for an at-large berth this year. I have no problem saying that. But you my friend still think this is the Messiah of old and I can assure you they are not. Trust me I think they will get to that level again in the next 2 years, but not right now.
And to say that Lycoming does not have the experience that Messiah has is absurd. Both teams faced off in the conference final last year. Currently there are players on Lycoming's roster that were on the team and played against Messiah in 2013 when they upset them. Is that not experience? Also, both teams graduated arguably their best classes in each program's history. So IMO, both are equals in that category.
Don't make outrageous claims then expect no one to put you in your place. Anybody that has read my posts this season knows that I do not respond in this tone, but when you shout clueless ideas around you get a good response. There is a ton of soccer to be played yet so to even say there will be a Lycoming Messiah final is pushing it as anything can happen and to say Lycoming will host also comes down to today's matches. Bite your tongue before you speak next time.
Quote from: Mr.Right on October 31, 2015, 11:00:33 AM
I didn't say they were "dirty". IThe other guy did. I have not seen them play yet. I will say I LOVE teams that press and work extremely hard and if there are fouls then so be it. That is different than what the other guy was implying
I have seen Lycoming play Mr. Right and I think you would enjoy their style of play. As for D3soccerwatcher guy...you're a loser man. MAF don't feed into his idiocracy. It's not worth anyone's time.
Drew stumbles vs Moravian. Catholic steals 4th seed in Landmark
Eastern loses to FDU Florham and will likely be the 3 seed. Miseri must win or Manhattanville earns th 4th seed
Kings vs Manhattanville
FDU-Florham vs Eastern
Saw Haverford win 3-0 and run win streak to 12.
Any update on them or people's thoughts? Are they for real?
I have them as #2 in the nation. They are legit. Early in the season I said Fords would be an elite 8 team within 2-3 years. With their current form, I see a potential run this season...
Where are we with the Mid-Atlantic regional rankings this week?
Also can someone give a quick update on playoffs for conferences in Mid-Atlantic region.
Quote from: backyarddawg on November 01, 2015, 04:56:57 PM
Where are we with the Mid-Atlantic regional rankings this week?
Also can someone give a quick update on playoffs for conferences in Mid-Atlantic region.
Let me throw something together for you!
Landmark Conference:
1. Etown vs 4. Catholic (Nov. 4th @7pm)
2. Scranton vs 3. Susquehanna (Nov. 3rd @7pm)
Winners face off in final on Nov. 7th (I think)
Centennial Conference:
4. Hopkins vs 5. Swat (Nov. 4th @4pm)
1. Haverford vs 4/5 winner (Nov. 7th)
2. F&M vs 3. Dickinson (Nov. 7th)
Winners face off in final on Nov. 8th.
MAC Commonwealth:
4. Arcadia vs 5. Widener (Nov. 2nd @7pm)
1. Lycoming vs 4/5 winner (Nov. 4th @2pm)
2. Messiah vs 3. Lebanon Valley (Nov. 4th @7pm)
Winners face off in final on Nov. 7th.
MAC Freedom:
1. Kings vs 4. Manhattanville (Nov. 4th at 7pm)
2. FDU-Florham vs 3. Eastern (Nov. 4th at 2pm)
Winners face off in final on Nov. 7th.
Quote from: backyarddawg on November 01, 2015, 04:56:57 PM
Where are we with the Mid-Atlantic regional rankings this week?
Also can someone give a quick update on playoffs for conferences in Mid-Atlantic region.
Hey 'dawg, there's a new website that will answer all of your questions and more.
http://www.d3soccer.com/landing/index
Cabrini should win their conference
Third NCAA Ranking Prediction
1. Haverford
2. F&M
3. Lycoming
4. E-town
5. Dickinson
6. Messiah
7. JHU
8. Who knows... Kings?
Does Dickinson bump up to 4th with F&M sliding to 3rd or 5th?
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 01, 2015, 09:02:32 PM
Third NCAA Ranking Prediction
1. Haverford
2. F&M
3. Lycoming
4. E-town
5. Dickinson
6. Messiah
7. JHU
8. Who knows... Kings?
Does Dickinson bump up to 4th with F&M sliding to 3rd or 5th?
Eastern, Cabrini, Kings, Scranton for that 8th slot possibly? It's up in the air.
NCAA Ranking Prediction -3rd Release---thru 11/1/2015
1. Haverford
2. F&M
3. Lycoming
4. Etown
5. Dickinson
6. Messiah
7. Hopkins
8. Eastern
------------------
Kings, Gettysburg, Scranton, Cabrini, Arcadia
It will be interesting to see how far F&M drops after a 1-1 week and losing last week. It will also be interesting to see how high Dickinson jumps. I do not think they can make it past the #5 spot. 1-4 has been consistent all year and through the first two polls. They also have not lost except for F&M so they should be the only team that should drop. Lycoming and Etown's SOS is both going to continue to drop due to conference play but they keep racking up the wins. If Dickinson loses to F&M in playoffs I do not see them making the NCAA tournament. If Dickinson wins the semi-final and loses in the final it's a toss up. Pool C hopefuls around the country will be cheering for F&M this weekend. And as I said before, I couldn't see F&M losing at home on senior day but Dickinson proved me wrong. Although F&M did dominate the game, just got unlucky and couldn't finish. I do not see F&M losing twice in a row at home to Dickinson but that's why we play the game! A very big upcoming week and weekend. As for the #8 spot in the region it's a toss up at this point. Eastern has dropped 2 of their last 3 and has no chance at an at-large bid. Any of those teams listed could slide into the 8 spot, but Kings, Eastern, Arcadia, and Cabrini's SOS will be right around .500 or below. Scranton's will be good but they have a lot of blemishes on their resume. I am curious to see the committee's decision as this is a very important release.
What we could also see:
1. Haverford----this is a lock
2. Lycoming
3. F&M
4. Etown
5. Dickinson
6. Messiah
7. Eastern
8. Hopkins
F&M could drop to 4 and swap with Etown too, or top 3 could be like this and have Dickinson hop Etown, but I just cant see it happening. Yes, I agree it's a huge win for Dickinson, but they have 1 to many blemishes for me, and the other teams keep winning. How much will they factor the previous 2 polls? Teams that keep winning but SOS might be lower now than poll 1 or 2? Teams that lose but SOS jumps or loss was vs ranked team? I will throw some data together later this afternoon so we can see some comparisons. Once again I am anxious to see what happens, but the original poll up top is what I think we can all expect to see on Wednesday.
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 01, 2015, 08:21:32 PM
Cabrini should win their conference
Yes whoever wins the CSAC will be the only bid from that league (most likely Cabrini).
I think we will see F&M drop this week to the 4 spot with the rankings looking like this:
1. Haverford
2. Lycoming - can see them losing semi-final
3. Etown - should cruise through the week
4. F&M
5. Dickinson (great win over F&M but not enough to put ahead of F&M)
Will be interesting to see how the game plays out on Sat when F&M and Dickinson face off again (game at Haverford from what I saw which will make it interesting too) I think F&M will come out on top 2 or 3-0 this time around.
Love conference playoff time - all the crazy stuff happens where people don't expect certain teams to be in Pool C and throws everyone's ideas out the window!
My thoughts on conference winners: Commonwealth - Messiah (not sure they play Lyco in the final...) , Freedom - FDU, Centennial - Haverford, Landmark - Etown.
Ranking Predictions w/data:
1. Haverford------14-3-0 with 4 wins vs ranked (4-2-0) and SOS(.606) will drop slightly---regular season Centennial champs
2. F&M------------15-2-0 with 2 wins vs ranked (2-2-0) and SOS(.559) will jump
3. Lycoming------ 14-1-2 with 1 win vs ranked (1-1-0) and SOS(.554) will drop slightly---regular season Commonwealth champs
4. Etown----------16-1-1 with 2 wins vs ranked (2-1-0) and SOS(.526) will drop slightly---regular season Landmark champs
5. Dickinson------11-3-3 with 1 win vs ranked (1-2-1) and SOS(.556) will jump slightly
6. Messiah--------13-4-1 with 0 wins vs ranked (0-4-0) and SOS(.593) will drop slightly
7. Hopkins--------10-4-3 with 1 win vs ranked (1-3-2) and SOS(.595) will drop slightly
8. Eastern--------14-2-2 with 2 wins vs ranked (2-0-0) and SOS(.508) will drop
From what I understand the RvR is based off of poll 2 rankings and calculate for poll 3 which is why we don't have that in poll 1. But by the unpublished rankings teams RvR might change a lot, Messiah might have 1 by then if Wash. Lee gets ranked, Hopkins might lose a loss if Newark drops out, Dickinson might gain a win if Mary Washington sneaks in, Lycoming might lose a loss if Eastern drops out and they could gain wins if teams like Geneva and Mt. Aloysius steal a spot, if Scranton sneaks in (which sitting at 8-6-2 I can't see happening) then teams like Etown, Lycoming, Haverford, and Dickinson will all add wins to their RvR. I would love to see the final unpublished rankings as I feel they will be more important and we will see more flux than in previous years.
Quote from: igotthisfeeling on November 02, 2015, 08:34:15 AM
I think we will see F&M drop this week to the 4 spot with the rankings looking like this:
1. Haverford
2. Lycoming - can see them losing semi-final
3. Etown - should cruise through the week
4. F&M
5. Dickinson (great win over F&M but not enough to put ahead of F&M)
Will be interesting to see how the game plays out on Sat when F&M and Dickinson face off again (game at Haverford from what I saw which will make it interesting too) I think F&M will come out on top 2 or 3-0 this time around.
Love conference playoff time - all the crazy stuff happens where people don't expect certain teams to be in Pool C and throws everyone's ideas out the window!
My thoughts on conference winners: Commonwealth - Messiah (not sure they play Lyco in the final...) , Freedom - FDU, Centennial - Haverford, Landmark - Etown.
That's also a possibility. I am just hesitant dropping F&M that far because of their SOS. Etown will be flirting with .520 and Lycoming will be around .545 while F&M will be closer to .570.
Quote from: igotthisfeeling on November 02, 2015, 08:34:15 AM
I think we will see F&M drop this week to the 4 spot with the rankings looking like this:
1. Haverford
2. Lycoming - can see them losing semi-final
3. Etown - should cruise through the week
4. F&M
5. Dickinson (great win over F&M but not enough to put ahead of F&M)
Will be interesting to see how the game plays out on Sat when F&M and Dickinson face off again (game at Haverford from what I saw which will make it interesting too) I think F&M will come out on top 2 or 3-0 this time around.
Love conference playoff time - all the crazy stuff happens where people don't expect certain teams to be in Pool C and throws everyone's ideas out the window!
My thoughts on conference winners: Commonwealth - Messiah (not sure they play Lyco in the final...) , Freedom - FDU, Centennial - Haverford, Landmark - Etown.
1. Fords
2. F&M
3. Lyco
4. Dickinson
5. Etown
6. Messiah
7. JHU
8. Eastern
F&M wins Centennial, Lyco wins Commonwealth, Manhattanville wins Freedom, Etown wins Landmark, Cabrini wins CSAC
I understand F&M's SOS is higher then Etown and Lyco but one criteria that is to be considered when they do their selections is recent performance - in which case F&M is not in a good place. Either way these rankings are pretty useless until we know who the AQ teams are and who drops into Pool C - then the rankings will matter for hosting/who makes it/etc. Until then its a good conversation topic to keep us occupied.
Curious what peoples thoughts are - what if Etown doesn't win the Landmark? I think they will win it, but what if they have a slip up like F&M did against Dickinson? Does Etown still get in? My opinion is yes they still get in but will not be playing at home...I think if they win their conference then they will/should host first rounds - just my thoughts!
Recent performance is NOT one of the primary or even secondary criteria to be used, by default at least. The committee may request permission to weigh the final 25% of the season higher, but who knows if they ask for that permission and at what level it is used. I suspect it would only be used for tie-breaking purposes when the five primary criteria leaves a couple teams level in the eyes of the committee. Dickinson getting an at-large berth last year suggests the final 25% is either not always considered or if it is it is not weighted as high as the standard primary criteria.
from page 21 of the Pre-Championships Manual (http://www.d3soccer.com/ncaa-publications/2015/2015-NCAA-Division-III-Soccer_Pre-Championships-Manual.pdf)
PRIMARY CRITERIA
● Won-lost percentage against Division III opponents;
● Division III head-to-head competition;
● Results versus common Division III opponents;
● Results versus ranked Division III teams as established by the rankings at the time of selection. Conference
postseason contests are included; and
● Division III strength of schedule;
-- Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP);
-- Opponents' Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OO WP).
(See Appendix D on page 45)
Note: Contests versus provisional and reclassifying members in their third and fourth years shall count in the primary criteria.
Provisional and reclassifying members shall remain ineligible for rankings and selections.
Should a committee find that evaluation of a team's win-loss percentage during the last 25 percent of the season is applicable
(i.e., end of season performance), it may adopt such criteria with approval from the championships committee.
SECONDARY CRITERIA
If the evaluation of the primary criteria does not result in a decision, the secondary criteria will be reviewed. All the criteria
listed will be evaluated (not listed in priority order). The secondary criteria introduce results against all other opponents,
including those contests versus opponents from other classifications (i.e., provisionals, NAIA, NCAA Divisions I and II).
● Non-Division III won-lost percentage;
● Results versus common non-Division III opponents; and
● Non-Division III strength of schedule.
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on November 02, 2015, 07:40:34 AM
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 01, 2015, 09:02:32 PM
Third NCAA Ranking Prediction
1. Haverford
2. F&M
3. Lycoming
4. E-town
5. Dickinson
6. Messiah
7. JHU
8. Who knows... Kings?
Does Dickinson bump up to 4th with F&M sliding to 3rd or 5th?
Eastern, Cabrini, Kings, Scranton for that 8th slot possibly? It's up in the air.
Cabrini won't sniff the rankings due to the low SOS. Aside from Eastern low SOS, the bad results alone could be enough to see them drop out.
FW, appreciate the reminder of all the criteria, even though I don't need it - been around this long enough...I was just making a comment that the committee could use recent performance for deciding selections/seeding/whether to take a team or not (which they have done in the past in various years)...didn't say to what level they use that info, but I said it could be considered. Never know what the committee is thinking as every year there are teams selected/teams left home for unknown reasons when you look at criteria that they are SUPPOSED to follow.
Hero's rankings:
http://herosports.com/college-rankings/d3-mens-soccer-rankings/
Dickinson will jump to #3 behind #1 Haverford and #2 F&M. That 1 win against F&M will bump them up over ETOWN and Lycoming. I talked about this in the UAA thread last week. Dickinson has available chances to win games against Ranked opponents where Lycoming and ETOWN do not. I just did not believe Dickinson would get it done. They still need to beat F&M one more time IMO opinion to get off the bubble
Quote from: igotthisfeeling on November 02, 2015, 10:37:54 AM
FW, appreciate the reminder of all the criteria, even though I don't need it - been around this long enough...I was just making a comment that the committee could use recent performance for deciding selections/seeding/whether to take a team or not (which they have done in the past in various years)...didn't say to what level they use that info, but I said it could be considered. Never know what the committee is thinking as every year there are teams selected/teams left home for unknown reasons when you look at criteria that they are SUPPOSED to follow.
I was just clarifying for anyone else, since your original comment ("but one criteria that is to be considered when they do their selections is recent performance") certainly made it seem like the end of season performance was definitely considered, when all we really know (unless you or someone has insider info) is that it
could be considered, and only if the selection committee requested and gained permission to do so.
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 02, 2015, 12:04:53 PM
Dickinson will jump to #3 behind #1 Haverford and #2 F&M. That 1 win against F&M will bump them up over ETOWN and Lycoming. I talked about this in the UAA thread last week. Dickinson has available chances to win games against Ranked opponents where Lycoming and ETOWN do not. I just did not believe Dickinson would get it done. They still need to beat F&M one more time IMO opinion to get off the bubble
I have to disagree with you on this one Mr. Right. Dickinson will not be #3 on Wednesday. 6 blemishes and a 1-2-1 RvR...only thing they have going for them will be their SOS which will be higher than Etown and Lycoming. Other than that everything else favors Etown and Lycoming (record, winning%, RvR, regular season championship, etc). If they do jump to #3 it's because of their SOS and them finally getting a win vs a ranked team. Etown 2-1-0 RvR and Lycoming 1-1-0 RvR. SOS will be much much higher for Dickinson than Etown and Lycoming will be in the middle of that spread. Etown around .520ish, Lyco .545ish, and Dickinson around .570ish (give or take a few for each).
Well...I just noticed Etown beat Dickinson so they might be #3 but your telling me Dickinson's reward for beating the #2 ranked team is to move up one spot?
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 02, 2015, 03:14:04 PM
Well...I just noticed Etown beat Dickinson so they might be #3 but your telling me Dickinson's reward for beating the #2 ranked team is to move up one spot?
Right and Etown won't jump Lycoming so therefore Dickinson doesn't jump either of them. It's not about rewards? Why would you punish Etown or Lycoming for consistently winning like they are suppose to?
Let us compare some common opponents amongst the 4 teams:Etown: 16-1-1 w/wins over Dickinson, Messiah, Scranton, Sus, loss to F&M, tie Alvernia,
Lyco: 14-1-2 w/wins over Messiah, Scranton, Sus, Alvernia, LVC, Stevenson, tie Arcadia
F&M: 15-2-0 w/wins over LVC, Arcadia, Etown, Stevenson, loss Dickinson
Dickinson: 10-3-3 w/wins over LVC, Scranton, F&M, losses to Etown and Alvernia
So you're telling me that Lyco and F&M beat Alvernia, Etown ties them, but Dickinson loses to them...so that's a strike for Dickinson.
Dickinson loses to Etown, F&M beats Etown
Dickinson beats F&M, F&M loses to Dickinson
My point being is that it's always going to be a toss up even with common opponents thrown together, but Dickinson's blemishes just in the common opponents category between the 4 teams has them arguably 4th out of 4.
SOS favors Dickinson over Etown and Lyco. But once again everything else favors Etown and Lyco over Dickinson especially Etown having the head to head win...Etown has no reason to jump Lyco so Lyco will stay ahead of them. It's going to come down to where F&M falls. F&M might fall inbetween Etown and Lyco. Dickinson shouldn't jump any of the top 4 and they don't deserve to jump any of the top 4.
Widener 3
Arcadia 2
Final - 2 OT
Widener will get a rematch with Lycoming on Wednesday afternoon.
One would think that Rochester is done. Even if they win at Emory next weekend, yesterday's loss to Brandeis means that they'll finish 7-3-5 at best, 1-2-4 RvR, and they haven't been ranked in either of the two RRs so far. The last part, particularly, is the most telling part, and I can't see them sneaking into the 3rd poll (or the final poll for that matter, even if they beat Emory.)
Quote from: blooter442 on November 02, 2015, 09:53:31 PM
One would think that Rochester is done. Even if they win at Emory next weekend, yesterday's loss to Brandeis means that they'll finish 7-3-5 at best, 1-2-4 RvR, and they haven't been ranked in either of the two RRs so far. The last part, particularly, is the most telling part, and I can't see them sneaking into the 3rd poll (or the final poll for that matter, even if they beat Emory.)
They aren't a Mid-Atlantic team but I agree with your statement ;D
D3 Soccer Top 25 Poll:
8. Etown
9. F&M
12. Haverford
18. Lycoming
25. Eastern
RV: Messiah(44), Dickinson(36), Cabrini(6)
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on November 02, 2015, 03:41:47 PM
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 02, 2015, 03:14:04 PM
Well...I just noticed Etown beat Dickinson so they might be #3 but your telling me Dickinson's reward for beating the #2 ranked team is to move up one spot?
Right and Etown won't jump Lycoming so therefore Dickinson doesn't jump either of them. It's not about rewards? Why would you punish Etown or Lycoming for consistently winning like they are suppose to?
Let us compare some common opponents amongst the 4 teams:
Etown: 16-1-1 w/wins over Dickinson, Messiah, Scranton, Sus, loss to F&M, tie Alvernia,
Lyco: 14-1-2 w/wins over Messiah, Scranton, Sus, Alvernia, LVC, Stevenson, tie Arcadia
F&M: 15-2-0 w/wins over LVC, Arcadia, Etown, Stevenson, loss Dickinson
Dickinson: 10-3-3 w/wins over LVC, Scranton, F&M, losses to Etown and Alvernia
So you're telling me that Lyco and F&M beat Alvernia, Etown ties them, but Dickinson loses to them...so that's a strike for Dickinson.
Dickinson loses to Etown, F&M beats Etown
Dickinson beats F&M, F&M loses to Dickinson
My point being is that it's always going to be a toss up even with common opponents thrown together, but Dickinson's blemishes just in the common opponents category between the 4 teams has them arguably 4th out of 4.
SOS favors Dickinson over Etown and Lyco. But once again everything else favors Etown and Lyco over Dickinson especially Etown having the head to head win...Etown has no reason to jump Lyco so Lyco will stay ahead of them. It's going to come down to where F&M falls. F&M might fall inbetween Etown and Lyco. Dickinson shouldn't jump any of the top 4 and they don't deserve to jump any of the top 4.
It is not about punishment. It has always been about reward. Dickinson just beat your #2 ranked team in your region. I promise you they will get rewarded for that. Etown just beat Scranton. They will not get punished for it unless Scranton had a really bad record. The only reason Etown will jump to #3 is because they DID beat Dickinson which matters to the committee. What you are talking about with common opponents matters but IMO the committee looks at that as one of the final primary criteria in picking teams. Meaning it is not as heavily favored IMO as say Results v Ranked and SOS and even OWP. That is just IMO in watching what they have done over 10+ years. I still believe Dickinson will be #4 and Lycoming might drop to #5. However, Etown with an unimpressive .525 SOS is very hard to ignore. That will hurt them regardless if they are #2 or #3 or #4 or whatever. Stacked up against other bubble teams that will not FLY. They NEED the AQ.
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 03, 2015, 08:42:14 AM
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on November 02, 2015, 03:41:47 PM
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 02, 2015, 03:14:04 PM
Well...I just noticed Etown beat Dickinson so they might be #3 but your telling me Dickinson's reward for beating the #2 ranked team is to move up one spot?
Right and Etown won't jump Lycoming so therefore Dickinson doesn't jump either of them. It's not about rewards? Why would you punish Etown or Lycoming for consistently winning like they are suppose to?
Let us compare some common opponents amongst the 4 teams:
Etown: 16-1-1 w/wins over Dickinson, Messiah, Scranton, Sus, loss to F&M, tie Alvernia,
Lyco: 14-1-2 w/wins over Messiah, Scranton, Sus, Alvernia, LVC, Stevenson, tie Arcadia
F&M: 15-2-0 w/wins over LVC, Arcadia, Etown, Stevenson, loss Dickinson
Dickinson: 10-3-3 w/wins over LVC, Scranton, F&M, losses to Etown and Alvernia
So you're telling me that Lyco and F&M beat Alvernia, Etown ties them, but Dickinson loses to them...so that's a strike for Dickinson.
Dickinson loses to Etown, F&M beats Etown
Dickinson beats F&M, F&M loses to Dickinson
My point being is that it's always going to be a toss up even with common opponents thrown together, but Dickinson's blemishes just in the common opponents category between the 4 teams has them arguably 4th out of 4.
SOS favors Dickinson over Etown and Lyco. But once again everything else favors Etown and Lyco over Dickinson especially Etown having the head to head win...Etown has no reason to jump Lyco so Lyco will stay ahead of them. It's going to come down to where F&M falls. F&M might fall inbetween Etown and Lyco. Dickinson shouldn't jump any of the top 4 and they don't deserve to jump any of the top 4.
It is not about punishment. It has always been about reward. Dickinson just beat your #2 ranked team in your region. I promise you they will get rewarded for that. Etown just beat Scranton. They will not get punished for it unless Scranton had a really bad record. The only reason Etown will jump to #3 is because they DID beat Dickinson which matters to the committee. What you are talking about with common opponents matters but IMO the committee looks at that as one of the final primary criteria in picking teams. Meaning it is not as heavily favored IMO as say Results v Ranked and SOS and even OWP. That is just IMO in watching what they have done over 10+ years. I still believe Dickinson will be #4 and Lycoming might drop to #5. However, Etown with an unimpressive .525 SOS is very hard to ignore. That will hurt them regardless if they are #2 or #3 or #4 or whatever. Stacked up against other bubble teams that will not FLY. They NEED the AQ.
I understand your logic but just don't agree with it in this scenario. Just looking from week 1 to 2 and now to tomorrow Lycoming was #2 and Etown was #3, then Lycoming was #3 and Etown was #4 because of the Haverford win over F&M which gave them a jump plus their SOS and RvR was better. So this was anticipated and not a surprise to most. Now F&M has lost again, but has a higher SOS and pretty similar RvR compared to Lycoming and Etown. Dickinson has a better SOS but a worse record and RvR than F&M, Lycoming, and Etown.
I just can't see 11-3-3 Dickinson passing 16-1-1 Etown or 14-1-2 Lycoming because of one win. Like I said previously, the SOS is the only favorable stat for Dickinson over Etown and Lycoming...other than that everything else favors Etown and Lycoming.
Honestly if we look at everything it could go like this...(not saying it will, but it could)
1. Fords---14-3-0, beat F&M, Hopkins, and Dickinson, Cen. Conf. Regular Season Champs
2. Lyco---14-1-2, beat Messiah, Commonwealth Conf. Regular Season Champs
3. F&M---15-2-0, beat Etown and Hopkins, lost to Fords and Dickinson, Cen. Conf. Runner-up
4. Etown---16-1-1, beat Dickinson, Messiah, lost to F&M, Landmark Conf. Regular Season Champs
5. Dickinson---11-3-3, beat F&M, tied Hopkins, lost to Etown and Fords, Cen. Conf. 3rd place
6. Messiah---13-4-1, lost to Etown and Lyco, Commonwealth Conf. Runner-up
7. Hopkins---10-4-3, tied Dickinson, lost to Fords and F&M, Cen. Conf. 4th place
8. Eastern---14-2-2 or Kings---15-3-1 or Cabrini---13-2-3
MID-ATLANTIC-WEEK 2
1. Franklin & Marshall 14-1-0
2. Haverford 12-3-0
3. Lycoming 13-1-2
4. Elizabethtown 15-1-1
5. Eastern 13-1-2
6. Dickinson 9-3-3
7. Messiah 11-4-1
8. Johns Hopkins 8-4-3
This is the last NCAA poll (2nd release). What you are going to see based off of wins and losses is F&M and Fords will switch because Fords are 2-0 and F&M is 1-1. Lycoming and Etown stay the same because of 1-0 weeks. Next you will see Eastern drop because they went 1-1 so everyone behind them will bump up one spot because they all went 2-0 so Eastern drops to 8. So that leaves you with this:
1. Fords
2. F&M
3. Lyco
4. Etown
5. Dickinson
6. Messiah
7. Hopkins
8. Eastern
http://www.nscaa.com/rankings/4879
Shooter agree with your assessment again, but will Eastern SOS clear .500? That's why I had a question mark for the 8th slot
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 03, 2015, 11:14:35 AM
Shooter agree with your assessment again, but will Eastern SOS clear .500? That's why I had a question mark for the 8th slot
Yeah it's a toss up so I put Eastern in since they have been in throughout. Kings and Cabrini SOS will also be just as low as Eastern's if not lower.
Not sure if it clears .500...it will be very close.
Scranton defeated Susquehanna 2-0 last night in the Landmark semifinals. Will face the winner of tonight's match between Catholic and Etown. Etown beat Catholic back in mid-September by a score of 5-2.
Widener defeated Arcadia for the 2nd time this season both at Arcadia. Final score was 3-2 in 2OT. Widener now travels to Lycoming today for the 2nd time in 3 games as they met each other just 5 days ago. The Warriors won that match by a score of 2-0. Messiah hosts Leb Val who gave the Falcons a scare back in early October as LVC jumped out to a 2-0 lead before withering away and losing 4-2. The winners face off in the finals this Saturday.
Eastern looks to avenge a 3-2 loss at FDU-Florham today. The teams met just 5 days ago. Manhattanville travels to Kings for a rematch from a 1-1 draw earlier in the year. A game that I would keep my eye on. The winners (which is a toss up at this point) face of this Saturday for a chance to make the NCAA tournament. (85% chance this is a one bid league)
Keystone over Immaculata last night 1-0 on the road. They travel to Cabrini in the semifinals of the CSAC on Thursday. Neumann defeated Centenary 2-1 on the road as well. They will travel to Marywood tomorrow night as well. Winners will face off in the final this Saturday. (One bid league)
Swat travels to Hopkins tonight. They are looking to avenge a 3-2 home loss to JHU earlier in the year. The winners will be rewarded with a match at Haverford this Saturday. Dickinson and F&M also square off at Haverford on Saturday. F&M is looking to avenge a 1-0 loss from just a week ago. Winners face off on little rest the very next day.
I don't think I missed anybody...should be a great week of soccer!
I've been impressed with Manhattanville. Who presents more of a match-up problem for Eastern, with the anticipation that they beat FDU-Florham?
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 04, 2015, 11:03:14 AM
I've been impressed with Manhattanville. Who presents more of a match-up problem for Eastern, with the anticipation that they beat FDU-Florham?
Kings has had their number the past 2 seasons and also ruined their undefeated season this year...the match-up would be @Kings where they lost earlier as I mentioned. It could be motivation for Eastern to get revenge or it could be a mental blow up since they know Kings has had the edge over the past 2 seasons and now this year. They will be on the road if Kings wins so I think that match-up will be a more entertaining and a tougher game for Eastern. If they host the final vs Manhattanville I think Eastern wins. Kings game would be a better final to see IMO and a toss up.
Did not see that JHU bump of Messiah coming... I guess those three games vs low win % conference teams hurt their cause.
Eastern wins in 2OT 1-0
Lycoming beats Widener again 2-0
Etown, Kings and Messiah yet to play.
1. Fords
2. F&M
3. Lyco
4. Etown
5. Dickinson
6. Hopkins
7. Messiah
8. Eastern
I am surprised to see Messiah drop. SOS is pretty much the same, RvR favors JHU, record overall favors Messiah. Interesting jump their. Lycoming winning tonight I think makes them a lock for a pool C bid no matter the outcome Saturday. Etown would be on the fence if they lost because of SOS.
Etown, Kings, and Messiah all advance to their conference finals.
Also JHU smashed Swat last night 5-0.
MID-ATLANTIC REGION (data sheet)
Rank School Overall SOS RvR Prev.
1. Haverford 14-3-0 0.584 5-2-0 2
2. Franklin and Marshall 15-2-0 0.567 3-2-0 1
3. Lycoming 14-1-2 0.545 1-1-0 3
4. Elizabethtown 16-1-1 0.525 2-1-0 4
5. Dickinson 11-3-3 0.569 2-2-1 6
6. Johns Hopkins 10-4-3 0.573 2-3-2 8
7. Messiah 13-4-1 0.580 0-4-1 7
8. Eastern 14-2-2 0.506 2-0-0 5
9. Gettysburg 10-5-1 0.546 0-4-1 9
MID-ATLANTIC REGION-UPDATED AS OF 11/4/15
Rank School Overall SOS RvR Prev.
1. Haverford 14-3-0 0.584 5-2-0 2--------DNP
2. Franklin and Marshall 15-2-0 0.567 3-2-0 1-------DNP
3. Lycoming 15-1-2 0.545 1-1-0 3-------Beat Widener 2-0
4. Elizabethtown 17-1-1 0.525 2-1-0 4--------Beat Catholic 4-1
5. Dickinson 11-3-3 0.569 2-2-1 6-------DNP
6. Johns Hopkins 11-4-3 0.573 2-3-2 8--------Beat Swat 5-0
7. Messiah 14-4-1 0.580 0-4-1 7---------Beat Leb Val 4-0
8. Eastern 15-2-2 0.506 2-0-0 5----------Beat FDU-Florham 1-0 2OT
9. Gettysburg 10-5-1 0.546 0-4-1 9---------DNP
You should try to update the RvR. For example, Hopkins loses a tie because TCNJ isn't ranked anymore. Messiah picks up a win now that Wash & Lee is ranked.
what can Scranton do to slow down Etown and pull the upset? 6pm start at ETOWN in the Landmark Finals.
Quote from: Flying Weasel on November 05, 2015, 08:51:33 AM
You should try to update the RvR. For example, Hopkins loses a tie because TCNJ isn't ranked anymore. Messiah picks up a win now that Wash & Lee is ranked.
I'll work on that...what are your thoughts on the upcoming Commonwealth final between Lycoming and Messiah FW?
MID-ATLANTIC REGION-UPDATED AS OF 11/4/15
Rank School Overall SOS RvR Prev.
1. Haverford 14-3-0 0.584 5-2-0 2--------DNP
2. Franklin and Marshall 15-2-0 0.567 3-2-0 1-------DNP
3. Lycoming 15-1-2 0.545 1-1-0 3-------Beat Widener 2-0
4. Elizabethtown 17-1-1 0.525 2-1-0 4--------Beat Catholic 4-1
5. Dickinson 11-3-3 0.569 2-2-1 6-------DNP
6. Johns Hopkins 11-4-3 0.573 2-3-1 8--------Beat Swat 5-0
7. Messiah 14-4-1 0.580 1-4-1 7---------Beat Leb Val 4-0
8. Eastern 15-2-2 0.506 1-0-0 5----------Beat FDU-Florham 1-0 2OT
9. Gettysburg 10-5-1 0.546 0-4-1 9---------DNP
This has the RvR based off of the final published rankings. I will continue to update throughout the weekend...if I missed anything please let me know!
So much for Manhattanville. Let's go Eastern!
Camden usually plays Eastern every season, I guess neither could fit into the schedule... Would have been a nice matchup...
So are you still sticking to your guns that Lycoming will get in?
1 ranked win and SOS .550 against these other resumes with 5 ranked wins and weaker SOS...Something has got to give..Will the committee favor the SOS or the RvR more? Will it be balanced or will they just pick and choose where they feel like it. I still say go back to once ranked always ranked but get some of the FAT out of these rankings by dropping 2-3 teams in each region.
Compare Milwaukee Engineering and Lycoming. Two similar resumes and two teams in the same spot. They would go with Engineering
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 05, 2015, 10:02:26 AM
So are you still sticking to your guns that Lycoming will get in?
1 ranked win and SOS .550 against these other resumes with 5 ranked wins and weaker SOS...Something has got to give..Will the committee favor the SOS or the RvR more? Will it be balanced or will they just pick and choose where they feel like it. I still say go back to once ranked always ranked but get some of the FAT out of these rankings by dropping 2-3 teams in each region.
After these rankings I believe that Lycoming will get in win or lose (obviously win) on Saturday. Yes there are more big name teams losing in conference playoffs than anticipated but it shouldn't change too much. A lot will hinder on the F&M and Dickinson game and the outcome of the Centennial tournament. Teams like Lycoming and Etown are rooting for an F&M and Haverford final. Then they can breath easier. But if Dickinson beats F&M things get a little stickier.
With Lycoming staying third and assuming F&M or Haverford win the Centennial that takes an AQ then an at-large off the board bumping Lycoming to the next team in the region. Dickinson better hope Etown wins the Landmark if they lose to F&M and also they should be cheering for Lycoming to win the Commonwealth. Then you would see Dickinson out of the 5 slot bump to top of the region on the board to be compared with the other regions.
I think if Lyco and Etown both lose and Lyco goes off the board to Pool C it will be hard for Etown to feel safe for also getting a Pool C. If you are a Mid-Atlantic regional team that has a sliver of hope you are rooting for an F&M vs Fords final and Lyco and Etown to win their leagues. If all this happens then even JHU and Messiah have a chance (5% slim chance but still a chance).
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 05, 2015, 10:08:13 AM
Compare Milwaukee Engineering and Lycoming. Two similar resumes and two teams in the same spot. They would go with Engineering
MSOE: 13-4-1, .555 SOS, 3-2-0 RvR
Lyco: 15-1-2, .545 SOS, 1-1-0 RvR
It would be close. Lycoming's SOS will get a good bump after facing Messiah on Saturday as will MSOE will after facing Dominican.
SOS is practically the same but slight edge to MSOE.
RvR edge to MSOE.
Winning %/overall record edge to Lyco.
Amount of blemishes edge to Lyco.
2 more wins and 3 less losses total of 3 blemishes compared to 5 blemishes is in favor of Lyco.
So overall yes MSOE played more ranked teams, but their SOS is essentially the same which means the schedules weren't that much different and Lycoming has 2 less blemishes including 2 more wins and 3 less losses.
I don't think it's as clear cut as you think sometimes Mr. Right.
Then how do you compare, two teams in same region like Wheaton Ill and MSOE:
Camden: 13-8-1 if lose to MSU .605 SOS, 5-5 RvR #2 or #3 in South Atlantic
Wheaton: 12-3-3 .570 SOS, 2-2-2 RvR #2 in Central (may fall to #3)
MSOE: 13-4-1, .555 SOS, 3-2-0 RvR #3 in Central
Lyco: 15-1-2, .545 SOS, 1-1-0 RvR #3 Mid-Atlantic
Committee is going to have plenty of head scratchers this year. I couldn't pick 2 out of 4 here, honestly. Lycoming or Camden?
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 05, 2015, 11:39:58 AM
Then how do you compare, two teams in same region like Wheaton Ill and MSOE:
Camden: 13-8-1 if lose to MSU .605 SOS, 5-5 RvR #2 or #3 in South Atlantic
Wheaton: 12-3-3 .570 SOS, 2-2-2 RvR #2 in Central (may fall to #3)
MSOE: 13-4-1, .555 SOS, 3-2-0 RvR #3 in Central
Lyco: 15-1-2, .545 SOS, 1-1-0 RvR #3 Mid-Atlantic
Committee is going to have plenty of head scratchers this year. I couldn't pick 2 out of 4 here, honestly. Lycoming or Camden?
I agree its a 3 way tie! with Camden lurking close behind. ;) But one of the Central region teams wouldn't be on the board so you would be comparing 3 of those teams for head to head to head plus other regions as well. Once the central team goes off the board then the other would be up for debate and so on and so forth.
If I had to rank I would probably go like this:
1. Wheaton---ahead of Lyco bc of SOS difference
2. Lyco---ahead of MSOE bc of blemish difference and winning %, similar SOS
3. MSOE---ahead of Camden bc of record/blemishes
4. Camden---8 losses or 9 blemishes is too many
Why not throw Rochester in then? 6-4-5 record, SOS of .609, 1-1-4 RvR. 9 blemishes just like Camden, SOS BETTER than Camden, 4 less losses than Camden...and we aren't even considering Rochester? And your response is well that's crazy to consider them because of X,Y,Z...and that's my point when we say to consider Camden...
Mid-Atlantic SOS
594 Swarthmore
584 Haverford
582 Catholic
580 Messiah
577 Ursinus
575 Muhlenberg
573 JHU
569 Dickinson
567 F&M
561 Alvernia
555 DeSales
555 Scranton
546 Gettysburg
545 Lycoming
544 Miseri
543 Merchant Marine
534 Susquehanna
529 Drew
526 LVC
525 E-town
524 Manhattanville
520 FDU-Florham
519 Goucher
516 Moravian
515 Stevenson
513 Albright
509 Widener
506 Eastern
505 McDaniel
504 Washington Coll
502 Arcadia
502 Juniata
502 Morrisville St
499 Neumann
495 Wilkes
492 Penn College
484 Rosemont
478 Marywood
476 Hood
473 Keystone
470 PSU-Berks
468 Wilson
459 Kings
458 Centenary (NJ)
450 Gallaudet
449 Cazenovia
445 Lancaster Bible
442 Cobleskill
442 Gwynedd Mercy
441 Delaware Valley
438 Cabrini
424 Summit
422 Wells
419 PSU-Abington
416 Keuka
413 Cairn
412 Immaculata
408 SUNY Poly
398 Bryn Athyn
348 Valley Forge
Not consider Rochester because they aren't even Regionally Ranked. No shot.
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 05, 2015, 12:58:41 PM
Not consider Rochester because they aren't even Regionally Ranked. No shot.
Yes I get that. I was just using them as an example is all :)
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 05, 2015, 11:39:58 AM
Then how do you compare, two teams in same region like Wheaton Ill and MSOE:
Camden: 13-8-1 if lose to MSU .605 SOS, 5-5 RvR #2 or #3 in South Atlantic
Wheaton: 12-3-3 .570 SOS, 2-2-2 RvR #2 in Central (may fall to #3)
MSOE: 13-4-1, .555 SOS, 3-2-0 RvR #3 in Central
Lyco: 15-1-2, .545 SOS, 1-1-0 RvR #3 Mid-Atlantic
Committee is going to have plenty of head scratchers this year. I couldn't pick 2 out of 4 here, honestly. Lycoming or Camden?
1. Lyco
2. Wheaton
3. MSOE
4. Camden
I'm surprised Haverford didnt hit the .600 mark...They must have played 1-2 really weak teams. Now that is bothersome and exactly what is wrong with the system. They most certainly had the toughest schedule on paper in August IMO and they did not even crack .600 because of a few wins against lemons in their own conference or 1 game scheduled that should not have been. Coaches need just a bit of wriggle room. Maybe they should drop the worst OWP on your schedule for every team then calculate
Mr. Right I think the multiplier hurt Haverford this year having F&M, Dickinson and Muhlenberg at home. Looking at their schedule they seem to have played at home for the whole month of October, which hurts the SOS. Them also hosting CC hurts their SOS because all other teams get multiplier points.
That brings me to my point and case about that. If your a home team and host the conference playoffs but are a team with .50-.52 it is almost better to play playoff games on the road. That just does not seem right or really benefit a team which takes care of business in regular season.
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 05, 2015, 01:38:00 PM
I'm surprised Haverford didnt hit the .600 mark...They must have played 1-2 really weak teams. Now that is bothersome and exactly what is wrong with the system. They most certainly had the toughest schedule on paper in August IMO and they did not even crack .600 because of a few wins against lemons in their own conference or 1 game scheduled that should not have been. Coaches need just a bit of wriggle room. Maybe they should drop the worst OWP on your schedule for every team then calculate
Dickinson nursing a 1-0 lead over F&M in Centennial semifinal with about 10' left.
That would get them squarely on the bubble if they beat F&M twice this past week.
Messiah applying some serious pressure on Lycoming now. 10 minutes left and Lycoming barely holding on now
I get the excitement but this Lycoming announcer needs a xanax
All of a sudden with Dickinson beating F&M twice they have just as good a resume as F&M and have beat them twice. Not seeing that many solid wins on F&M resume
WOW...ETOWN in real trouble down 3-2 with about 10 minutes left.
I think Dickinson would jump ETOWN if they lose. ETOWN would be First 4 OUT..There is no way
God is that ref for the Etown game SO OUT of shape. That is ridiculous. He doesn't look like he is fit enough to leave the circle. Embarrassing.
Etown lose 3-2
Wow! What a let down for E-town! Still think they have a good shot at-large with 2 wins vs. ranked teams and a very high win pct. Yes, SOS is low at about .520 to .525. It's going to be a nerve-wracking 41 and a half hours for the Blue Jays.
FW,
do we have a time for the selection show?
Men's is 1:30pm this year, if I'm not mistaken.
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 05, 2015, 01:38:00 PM
I'm surprised Haverford didnt hit the .600 mark...They must have played 1-2 really weak teams. Now that is bothersome and exactly what is wrong with the system. They most certainly had the toughest schedule on paper in August IMO and they did not even crack .600 because of a few wins against lemons in their own conference or 1 game scheduled that should not have been. Coaches need just a bit of wriggle room. Maybe they should drop the worst OWP on your schedule for every team then calculate
The Fords played 2-15-1 Rosemont out of conference...
Yes they did LGOTB but would say only easy game on schedule.
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 07, 2015, 03:44:54 PM
Messiah applying some serious pressure on Lycoming now. 10 minutes left and Lycoming barely holding on now
Been off the grid. How bout these games?!?!? Mr. Right or FW did you watch the Lycoming vs Messiah game? It was a good one and had one of the crazier endings I have seen in quite some time. Fairly even game similar to the first meeting between the two. Messiah with more of the possession as expected. Probably around 60/40 possession. Shots 12-6 to Messiah which was also expected after the Warriors took the early lead. Corner kicks and shots on goal were both even. Messiah never looked dangerous until the final 10 minutes when they had to start to press more. I have been very impressed with Lycoming's defense all year and for them to get 2 shut outs against Messiah is a testament to how tough they are. Lycoming had 2 or 3 other dangerous chances that could have added to the lead but the keeper made the stops. The last 10 minutes was a frenzy including the last 45 seconds. Messiah is still wondering how the ball didn't go in the net in that last sequence as one of the chances was saved and skimmed off the cross bar. Overall a very good game to watch. Will be interested to see if Messiah sneaks in the tournament. Personally I do not think they will but we will find out Monday.
Haverford, F&M, Scranton, Lycoming, Cabrini, Eastern and most likely Etown and Dickinson will be dancing. Messiah and Hopkins I think are on the wrong side of the bubble.
Regarding Lyco's defense, what makes it all that more impressive is they lost last year's All-American sophomore center back, Bill Kerr, as he transferred to UMBC.
A gap that big can be hard to fill, but Gibboney just reloaded and has that back line playing well.
Yes - I'd say Messiah had at least 60% of the possession. But possession doesn't necessarily win soccer games. The oddest thing for me about this game was the extremely high number of throw-ins. It just seemed like the ball was out-of-bounds all the time (10 year old turf combined with a very narrow field). Combine that with the high number of total fouls (38 in all by the scorers count - about 10 higher than that by my count) and this game just seemed to have no flow at all. Lycoming certainly knew how to play on this field. But bottom line - after 180 mins across two games - Lycoming scored 3 goals (2-0, 1-0) and Messiah scored none. So Lycoming moves on - I wish them the best of luck.
Quote from: D3soccerwatcher on November 09, 2015, 01:46:11 AM
Yes - I'd say Messiah had at least 60% of the possession. But possession doesn't necessarily win soccer games. The oddest thing for me about this game was the extremely high number of throw-ins. It just seemed like the ball was out-of-bounds all the time (10 year old turf combined with a very narrow field). Combine that with the high number of total fouls (38 in all by the scorers count - about 10 higher than that by my count) and this game just seemed to have no flow at all. Lycoming certainly knew how to play on this field. But bottom line - after 180 mins across two games - Lycoming scored 3 goals (2-0, 1-0) and Messiah scored none. So Lycoming moves on - I wish them the best of luck.
+K D3SW. That's definitely an accurate representation of the game. The field is narrow but the same can hold true if traveling to Messiah where they hold a good home-field advantage. A big grass field that allows them to spread the ball out and create more gaps and space which plays right into their style. Anyone from the Commonwealth traveling to Messiah is already at a disadvantage as I do not think anybody else has grass besides Lebanon Valley. Lycoming, Alvernia, Albright, Arcadia, Stevenson, Hood, and Widener all have turf fields.
So back to my original thought...Lycoming earned the home-field advantage and they should know how to play their considering it's their home field just like Messiah tends to dominate at Shoemaker Field. I feel that a team should always play their best at home and great teams will also take care of business on the road. If you look at Lycoming over the past 3 years, since Gibboney has taken over, they have gone 26-4-1 at home which includes a 20-1 record in the past 2 seasons. Traveling to Lycoming is not an easy task. They have also taken care of business on the road accruing a 16-7-8 record over that 3 year span including an undefeated 6-0-2 away record this year. One of the surprising stats that jumps out to me this year is Messiah's record away from Shoemaker Field. In the 2 years prior to this season the Falcons went 16-1-1 on the road and this doesn't include neutral site games(which would improve the record even more). But this year the Falcons are a mediocre 4-4-0 away from home. Their home field advantage is still relevant as they went 9-1-1 at home this season. The road record is something that the Falcons need to focus on next year if they want to make the NCAA tournament and improve their overall winning percentage.
I personally think Messiah still has a chance at a bid but it is highly unlikely they will make it. If the committee snubs the great lakes region then Messiah has a shot. I do not think they get in this year and honestly I think they missed out by one game. If they would have won any of the 3 non-conference games they lost I think they are in the tournament. It would have put them at 15-4-1, SOS around .590(very strong), 2-4-1 RvR (nicer looking than 1-5-1), and a slight bump in their winning percentage. I think it would have been very hard to keep a 15-4-1 Messiah team out of the tournament with a strong SOS and 2 wins vs ranked. A win verse Rowan, CMU, or Etown would have solidified their place in the tournament. It's a cruel game and unfortunate that Messiah will not be in the big dance this year as they are always fun to watch and follow come November and December. Also their fan base travels well which is great for the tournament (and the NCAA $$$). But for my own sake I hope the Mid-Atlantic gets 4 at-large bids but it is looking like only 3 (or even 2) at this point.
Another example is Eastern with a 5-1-1 home record and a great 10-1-0 away record. In the past 2 season the Eagles have gone 17-3 on the road and 13-3-1 at home. The only thing that has tripped them up the past 2 season has been closing the deal in playoffs and more specifically beating Kings. A shout-out to the Eagles as they will be dancing...finally. ;D
Messiah has no chance folks. They did it to themselves against Lycoming TWICE and Rowan, CMU
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 09, 2015, 09:06:26 AM
Messiah has no chance folks. They did it to themselves against Lycoming TWICE and Rowan, CMU
Do you think it's accurate to say they would have been in if they would have swapped one of the losses to Etown, CMU, or Rowan for a win they would probably be in? It's interesting how much 1 game or different outcome could have changed their season. And yes I agree that they will not get in but it is Messiah we are talking about so they need to be discussed! :D
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on November 09, 2015, 09:45:50 AM
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 09, 2015, 09:06:26 AM
Messiah has no chance folks. They did it to themselves against Lycoming TWICE and Rowan, CMU
Do you think it's accurate to say they would have been in if they would have swapped one of the losses to Etown, CMU, or Rowan for a win they would probably be in?
Probably. After running all of the numbers I was surprised that Messiah was pretty competitive, with a solid winning percentage and a very good SOS. The RvR just kills them. The other issue is they'd probably still be below ETown because of head-to-head, but I'd probably have had Messiah on the right side of the bubble with another ranked win. And if they'd beaten CMU then CMU may have been out altogether as well.
Quote from: Ryan Harmanis on November 09, 2015, 09:55:41 AM
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on November 09, 2015, 09:45:50 AM
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 09, 2015, 09:06:26 AM
Messiah has no chance folks. They did it to themselves against Lycoming TWICE and Rowan, CMU
Do you think it's accurate to say they would have been in if they would have swapped one of the losses to Etown, CMU, or Rowan for a win they would probably be in?
Probably. After running all of the numbers I was surprised that Messiah was pretty competitive, with a solid winning percentage and a very good SOS. The RvR just kills them. The other issue is they'd probably still be below ETown because of head-to-head, but I'd probably have had Messiah on the right side of the bubble with another ranked win. And if they'd beaten CMU then CMU may have been out altogether as well.
I agree with all of that reasoning, and although I am not sure how it happened, there is also the fact that in the final regional poll JHU was ranked above Messiah. With both of those teams winning at home and losing on the road this week, I do not see how Messiah would then leapfrog JHU. But again, the committee always does what the committee wants to do and they have all kinds of factors to choose from to explain anomalies. Past history not being one of the stated criteria, one would hope that Messiah is not chosen over a school without a storied soccer history that this year is more deserving.
Mid-Atlantic Tournament Teams (7):
Haverford
Dickinson
Franklin and Marshall
Lycoming
Eastern
Scranton
Cabrini
Is Morrisville St in this region? Is it sad that I am unsure? If they are, which I think they are, then it would be 8 teams representing this region.
Easiest road to KC: Probably Haverford
Toughest road to KC: F&M
Toughest first round game: Eastern vs Camden
Easiest first round game: Cabrini vs Morrisville St.
Toughest pod: Lycoming, J&W(RI), Rowan, Dickinson
Easiest pod: Scranton, Mass-Boston, Sage, SLU
Biggest Snub: Etown
Keep in mind that there really are no easy games at this point...but this is just for good conversation :)
http://www.nscaa.com/rankings/4960
NSCAA Final Regular Season Poll: Nov. 10, 2015
1. Fords
2. Lycoming
3. Dickinson
4. Etown
5. F&M
6. Eastern
7. Messiah
8. Hopkins
9. Cabrini
10. Scranton
Yes, Morrisville St is in the Mid-Atlantic...
Lycoming vs Johnson&Wales is the easiest first round game.
Scranton and MA-Boston has OT all over it...
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 10, 2015, 09:23:38 AM
Yes, Morrisville St is in the Mid-Atlantic...
Lycoming vs Johnson&Wales is the easiest first round game.
Scranton and MA-Boston has OT all over it...
Ehhh I don't agree with Lyco vs JW as easiest. Cabrini and Morrisville are the winners from arguably 2 of the worst conferences in the country and they face each other. Cabrini SOS .483 and MSU .502. Cabrini hasn't played a ranked team all year and their toughest game was a 1-0 OT loss to Camden. MSU toughest games were a 2-0 loss to Oneonta, 5-1 loss to Cortland St, and a 0-0 tie at Rochester. So these 2 teams are the least dangerous coming out of the Mid-Atlantic region which is why I think them being matched up makes it the easiest game. Both teams have to love knowing that they at least have a chance to advance one round where as if they were matched up against anybody else besides themselves they most likely would have a slim chance to move on. Their reward is #1 Amherst...but at least one of them gets a shot at the second round. Also, this is J&W third straight NCAA tournament appearance and they only lost 1-0 to F&M last season in the first round. I don't think Lycoming, or anyone for that matter, should under estimate J&W.
Now keep in mind J&W SOS is .488 and they are 0-1-0 RvR compared to Lycoming .550 and 2-1-0 RvR. I am not saying J&W is a high caliber team, but they aren't a pushover this year.
I interpreted easiest first round game as "biggest margin of victory"
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 10, 2015, 09:37:37 AM
I interpreted easiest first round game as "biggest margin of victory"
That will most likely be Eastern but in the wrong direction ;)
The easiest game is and always has been whoever is playing the CUNYAC Champion. Oneonta St will have the easiest game. Johnson and Wales I have seen only once but there are worse teams out there.
Johnson and Wales is coached by former Clark Head Coach Dave Kulik. He played at Yale and he will sit DEEP. Lycoming will need to score quickly which is possible but if they hang around to long they can get the game into PK's.
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 10, 2015, 09:48:36 AM
Johnson and Wales is coached by former Clark Head Coach Dave Kulik. He played at Yale and he will sit DEEP. Lycoming will need to score quickly which is possible but if they hang around to long they can get the game into PK's.
What formation do they play? I am not familiar with any Rhode Island teams. What's their style Mr. Right?
UGLY and UGLIER.
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 10, 2015, 09:48:36 AM
Johnson and Wales is coached by former Clark Head Coach Dave Kulik. He played at Yale and he will sit DEEP. Lycoming will need to score quickly which is possible but if they hang around to long they can get the game into PK's.
They sit deep, but they don't have a standout defense by any means. 'Deis played them a couple years back and got two in the first five minutes if I recall correctly.
Correct. Hey I am by no means touting their team but they are not the worst team I have seen this year
Eastern and Rutgers-Camden usually play each other every season, so not sure why it was dropped this year:
2014: Rutgers-Camden 3, Eastern 1. (Shots: RUC - 18, Eastern - 12) RUC scored in 3rd min
2013: Rutgers-Camden 5, Eastern 0. (Shots: RUC - 18, Eastern - 8) RUC scored in 48th min
2012: Rutgers-Camden 3, Eastern 2. (Shots: RUC - 19, Eastern - 10) RUC scored in 2nd min
2011: Eastern 1, Rutgers-Camden 0. (Shots: RUC - 13, Eastern - 4) Eastern scored in the 63rd min
2010: Rutgers-Camden 2, Eastern 0. (Shots: RUC - 12, Eastern - 10) RUC scored in 7th min
2009: Rutgers-Camden 2, Eastern 0. (Shots: RUC - 14, Eastern - 12)
2008: Rutgers-Camden 1, Eastern 0. (Shots: Eastern 17, RUC - 12)
2007: Eastern 3, Rutgers-Camden 2. (Shots: RUC - 18, Eastern 14)
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on November 10, 2015, 09:54:20 AM
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 10, 2015, 09:48:36 AM
Johnson and Wales is coached by former Clark Head Coach Dave Kulik. He played at Yale and he will sit DEEP. Lycoming will need to score quickly which is possible but if they hang around to long they can get the game into PK's.
What formation do they play? I am not familiar with any Rhode Island teams. What's their style Mr. Right?
I see the classic 6 - 3 - 1 formation coming into play. 6 guys stand at the top of the 18 and defend. 3 guys chase and 1 guy stand in the center circle and just hope for a clearance! If Lycoming gets 1 early this game could be the easiest game(highest goal differential).
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 10, 2015, 09:57:23 AM
Correct. Hey I am by no means touting their team but they are not the worst team I have seen this year
So do we know what formation they tend to play? Something similar to Yale maybe? (Not familiar with Yale soccer either). They held F&M scoreless last year to half time. Stat line seemed pretty even. Looks like they scored in bunches this year as well but like I said I am not familiar with their league or quality of teams played. Can only go off of their SOS which is low.
Well they have won 12 straight games and did manage to beat 2 decent New England sides in Springfield and Rhode Island College. They are by no means the weakest team in the field.
That goes to CCNY or Daniel Webster.
Montclair St could HAMMER Daniel Webster 6-0.
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 10, 2015, 10:06:18 AM
Well they have won 12 straight games and did manage to beat 2 decent New England sides in Springfield and Rhode Island College. They are by no means the weakest team in the field.
That goes to CCNY or Daniel Webster.
Montclair St could HAMMER Daniel Webster 6-0.
Danny Webster should just get off at NYC and enjoy the weekend. No need to bother with Montclair.
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 10, 2015, 10:06:18 AM
Montclair St could HAMMER Daniel Webster 6-0.
The way I see it, MSU will pull their starters after they go two or three up, and then rest everybody for the next game. Still fancy Tufts to get by Salisbury, but Tufts will likely have to work a lot harder for that victory and it could result in some tired legs.
If the NESCAC is as strong as everyone makes it out to be, which I think it is... Tufts should have NO problems vs Salisbury.
Keep in mind, they got shaaaalacked by Rochester last year 4-0. Still believe they are overrated this year as well...
These will be different conditions for Tufts. Night game, turf and a team they are unfamiliar. They will be pumped to still be alive but this will be a very close game.
Quote from: blooter442 on November 10, 2015, 11:20:01 AM
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 10, 2015, 10:06:18 AM
Montclair St could HAMMER Daniel Webster 6-0.
The way I see it, MSU will pull their starters after they go two or three up, and then rest everybody for the next game. Still fancy Tufts to get by Salisbury, but Tufts will likely have to work a lot harder for that victory and it could result in some tired legs.
Salisbury is playing their last game(s) for their legendary coach Gerry DiBartolo (who seems to be doing the same thing Bob Duroucher did--move up to AD). Not sure that will make a difference, but Joe Bean's impending retirement inspired a Wheaton Thunder side that on October 20 was 8-7-3* and not assured of making the CCIW playoffs to go on a9-game unbeaten run to the CCIW titlle and NCAA title game before soundly losing to Messiah in the final. So who knows how a team will respond to a coach retiring.
* - at the time, Coach Bean was one win shy of 600, a milestone that had never yet been reached in collegiate soccer, and a loss in their last conference game to Carthage who was tied for first in the CCIW with an undefeated record of 4-0-1 could have meant missing the CCIW tournament (and NCAA's) with only a Lake Forest game left on Family Weekend for Bean to capture and retire with exactly 600 wins. But with their post-season chances on the line, they thrashed Carthage 5-0 (win No. 600 for bean), got help when North Park was upset in the CCIW semifinals, and went on a magical run (beating 20-1-0 Redlands, 19-2-1 Wartburg, 20-0-2 York, and 15-0-6 Ohio Wesleyan) that was even special in its end as it came against a respected Christian school. Bean retired with 607 wins.
Quote from: Flying Weasel on November 10, 2015, 12:51:14 PM
Quote from: blooter442 on November 10, 2015, 11:20:01 AM
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 10, 2015, 10:06:18 AM
Montclair St could HAMMER Daniel Webster 6-0.
The way I see it, MSU will pull their starters after they go two or three up, and then rest everybody for the next game. Still fancy Tufts to get by Salisbury, but Tufts will likely have to work a lot harder for that victory and it could result in some tired legs.
Salisbury is playing their last game(s) for their legendary coach Gerry DiBartolo (who seems to be doing the same thing Bob Duroucher did--move up to AD). Not sure that will make a difference, but Joe Bean's impending retirement inspired a Wheaton Thunder side that on October 20 was 8-7-3* and not assured of making the CCIW playoffs to go on a9-game unbeaten run to the CCIW titlle and NCAA title game before soundly losing to Messiah in the final. So who knows how a team will respond to a coach retiring.
* - at the time, Coach Bean was one win shy of 600, a milestone that had never yet been reached in collegiate soccer, and a loss in their last conference game to Carthage who was tied for first in the CCIW with an undefeated record of 4-0-1 could have meant missing the CCIW tournament (and NCAA's) with only a Lake Forest game left on Family Weekend for Bean to capture and retire with exactly 600 wins. But with their post-season chances on the line, they thrashed Carthage 5-0, got help when North Park was upset in the CCIW semifinals, and went on a magical run (beating 20-1-0 Redlands, 19-2-1 Wartburg, 20-0-2 York, and 15-0-6 Ohio Wesleyan) that was even special in its end as it came against a respected Christian school.
That's great stuff FW! With that being said I think Tufts beats Salisbury 2-0. I don't think Salisbury is made for the NCAA tournament and I think Tufts is out to show people that they deserve to be in the tournament and have a shot at defending their championship. But that's great info as I did not know that about Wheaton. You never know what sparks certain teams!
Here are my predictions for how far the teams in the tournament will go from our region...
Morrisville St---Lose in 1st round
Cabrini---------Lose in 2nd round
Lycoming------Lose in Sweet 16
Dickinson------Lose in 1st/2nd round
Haverford-------Lose in Final 4
Scranton-------Lose in 2nd round
Eastern--------Lose in 1st round
F&M------------Lose in Sweet 16/Elite 8
F&M has the easiest path to the elite 8
Haverford has the easiest to the final 4
Lycoming/Scranton have the toughest 2nd round fixtures
Eastern has the toughest 1st round fixture
I can see in this order of teams for best chance of winning it all based off the bracket breakdown(if they were to win the title):
Haverford(one less game and if they sneak past the sweet 16 watch out!)
F&M(should be a cakewalk to the elite 8 but F&M is struggling at the wrong time)
Eastern(if they survive 1st weekend in good shape to make a run)
Lycoming(tough 2nd round and sweet 16 games but can run deep if they survive opening weekend)
Dickinson(toughest first 2 match-ups w/Rowan and Lyco if all holds true)
Scranton(if they get by SLU then they have the Fords waiting...)
Cabrini/MSU(I will give whichever team's coach my retirement savings if they would somehow win the national title...not gonna happen)
Haverford and Lycoming on to the sweet 16...F&M currently leading 1-0...Dickinson, Scranton, and Morrisville St all cut short in round 2. Eastern and Cabrini bounced in the opener.
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on November 11, 2015, 03:46:31 PM
Here are my predictions for how far the teams in the tournament will go from our region...
Morrisville St---Lose in 1st round
Cabrini---------Lose in 2nd round
Lycoming------Lose in Sweet 16
Dickinson------Lose in 1st/2nd round
Haverford-------Lose in Final 4
Scranton-------Lose in 2nd round
Eastern--------Lose in 1st round
F&M------------Lose in Sweet 16/Elite 8
Spot on and just flipped the MSU/Cabrini game...well done MAF
Mid-Atlantic All-Region
First Team
Pos. Player Class School Hometown
K Trevor Britton Sr. Franklin & Marshall Owings Mills, Md.
D Jacob Bender Jr. Messiah Baltimore, Md.
D Martin Fevre Sr. Elizabethtown Chablis, France
D Kyle Thomas So. Lycoming College Bel Air, Md.
M Will Corkery Jr. Haverford College Needham, Mass.
M Danny Rowe Sr. Messiah Lancaster, Pa.
M John Sarraco Jr. Eastern Boontown Township, N.J.
M Sam Yarosh Sr. Haverford West Chester, Pa.
F Ugochukwu Okolie Fr. Franklin & Marshall Lagos, Nigeria
F Chase Tenbrook Sr. Franklin & Marshall Millville, N.J.
F Gilbert Waso Fr. Elizabethtown Elizabethtown, Pa.
Second Team
Pos. Player Class School Hometown
K Rodrigo Barrera Sr. Elizabethtown Sao Paulo, Brazil
D Colin Seitz Sr. Haverford San Diego, Calif.
D Edward Wagner Sr. Dickinson Washington, D.C.
D Ben Wild Jr. Franklin & Marshall Newtown, Pa.
M Abdullahi Abdi So. Lycoming Seattle, Wash.
M A.J. Bishop Jr. Cabrini Macungie, Pa.
M Alfred Hylton-Dei Sr. Dickinson Geneva, Switzerland
M Jordan Logan So. Lycoming Oxford, Pa.
F Daniel Hernandez Sr. King's Palisades Park, N.J.
F Henry Smith Jr. Gettysburg Westfield, N.J.
F Gavin Yingling Jr. United States Merchant Marine Academy Salisbury, Md.
Third Team
Pos. Player Class School Hometown
K Zach Rider So. Alvernia Lancaster, Pa.
D Danny Giraldo Sr. Drew Madison, N.J.
D Andrew Park Sr. Johns Hopkins Cary, N.C.
D Jadon Ramsing So. Eastern Columbia, Md.
M Devin Malfitano Sr. Franklin & Marshall Wilmington, Del.
M Ben Roda So. Cabrini Allentown, Pa.
M Shane Votto Sr. Elizabethtown Ardmore, Pa.
F Drew Demich Jr. Hood Jefferson, Md.
F Matthew Hull Sr. Marywood Chalfont, Pa.
F Bobby Kane Jr. Cabrini Haverford, Pa.
F Bradley McKim So. Arcadia Fallston, Md.
NSCAA D3 All Americans
First Team
Pos. Name Class School Hometown
K Sam Clougher Jr. Kenyon Dublin, Ireland
D Tom Carwile* Sr. Trinity (Texas) Tulsa, Okla.
D Martin Fevre Sr. Elizabethtown Chablis, France
D Nick Groenewold Sr. Calvin Oak Brook, Ill.
D Conor Lanahan* Sr. Brandeis Avon, Conn.
D Deklan Robinson Sr. Middlebury Gloucester, Mass.
M Logan Andryk*** Sr. Milwaukee Engineering Hartland, Wis.
M Jeremiah Barnes Sr. Kenyon Largo, Fla.
M Sean Bingham* Sr. Massachusetts Insititute Of Technology Garden City, N.Y.
M Damian Bziukiewicz Sr. Montclair State East Rutherford, N.J.
M Caleb Cole* Jr. Gordon Coatesville, Pa.
F Tony Amolo* Jr. Kenyon Lagos, Nigeria
F Kyle Farrar Jr. St. Scholastica London, England
F Chase TenBrook Sr. Franklin & Marshall Millville, N.J.
F Gilbert Waso Fr Elizabethtown Elizabethtown, Pa.
Second Team
Pos. First Class School Hometown
K Chad Margotta Sr. Trinity (Texas) San Antonio, Texas
D Harry Copeland* Sr. St. Lawrence Dedham, Mass.
D Kyle Goodwin So. Montclair State Carteret, N.J.
D Kyle Thomas So. Lycoming Bel Air, Md.
M Chris Cvecko Sr. Case Western Reserve Erie, Pa.
M Marshall Hollingsworth** Sr. Wheaton (Ill.) Libertyville, Ill.
M Josh Ocel Jr. Brandeis North Attleboro, Mass.
M John Saracco Jr. Eastern Boontown Township, N.J.
M Dylan Williams* Sr SUNY Oneonta Monroe, N.Y.
M Sam Yarosh Sr. Haverford West Chester, Pa.
F Peter DiLorenzo Sr. College at Brockport Hicksville, N.Y.
F Austin Juniet* Sr. Thomas More Ft. Thomas, Ky.
F Nico Pascual-Leone Sr. Amherst Wayland, Mass.
F Nico Roth Sr. Millsaps Alzenau, Germany
F Brian Schaefer Sr. Ohio Wesleyan Chatham, N.J.
F Shaun Watt Jr. Greensboro College Montreal, Que.
F William Webb Sr. Carnegie Mellon Dallas, Texas
Third Team
Pos. First Class School Hometown
K Thomas Bull* Sr. Amherst Montgomery, N.J.
D Jacob Bender Jr. Messiah Baltimore, Md.
D Kevin Krueger Sr. Wartburg Prior Lake, Minn.
D Carter Ocko Jr. Endicott Danvers, Mass.
D Justin Stanko Jr. Wisconsin-Whitewater St. Charles, Ill.
D Spencer Wolfe Sr. Whitworth Bellingham, Wash.
M Patrik Devlin Jr. Connecticut College Washington Crossing, Pa.
M Danny Rowe Sr. Messiah Lancaster, Pa.
M Christian Sakshaug Fr. Trinity (Texas) San Antonio, Texas
F Braden Andryk So. Milwaukee Engineering Hartland, Wis.
F Alexis Archilla Jr. Plattsburgh State Warwick, N.Y.
F Max Grossenbacher Sr. Colorado College Austin, Texas
F Matt Kinkopf Jr. Ohio Northern West Chester, Ohio
F Caleb Lucas Jr. Maryville (Tenn.) Maryville, Tenn.
F Eirik Nordseth Sr. Methodist Steinkjer, Norway
F Johnny Rummelhart Sr. Loras Iowa City, Iowa
F Michael Ryan** Sr. Rutgers-Camden Marlton, N.J.
12/8/15- Final NSCAA Rankings:
6. Haverford
10. Lycoming
12. F&M
25. Dickinson
RV: Scranton(1)
Looking forward to the D3soccer poll. This looks about right from my perspective though. I am sure Eastern will RV in the D3soccer poll and maybe even Etown. We will see.
Looking ahead to next season just slightly...some things to take away:
Messiah will be reloaded and determined more than ever to get back to NCAAs. I think they will bring in some top talent and flourish once again. They will be dancing next season. They lose 5 seniors and 4 starters. Big roles to fill but they get it done. They were only a win away from dancing this season...something a lot of people forget.
Etown loses all of its leadership and their stud GK. Graduating 5 seniors which includes 4 captains and their outstanding GK. Big shoes to fill and I don't think Waso will be as effective next season. I don't see them putting up 15+ wins again but I guess we will have to see what the schedule looks like. Will still be one of the favorites in the Landmark despite key departures.
Lycoming doesn't graduate a single player from a team that made a run to the NCAA Sweet 16 and also won their conference championship. The tides seem to be turning in the Commonwealth and I see Lycoming repeating as champions in the MAC. The MAC will turn into a 2 bid league starting next season. Will be interested to see how many recruits they bring in since they have nobody departing. This team has to be the favorites for the region next season.
F&M graduates only 4 but the loss is heavy in losing TenBrook and Britton. The other two are very solid players and all 4 will be greatly missed. With that being said F&M is one of the favorites next season for the Centennial if not the favorite to win it. Arguably a top 3 team next season for one of the best in the region(preseason of course) with Lycoming and Haveford.
Haverford loses just 4 from an Elite 8 team that arguably could have won a national championship. Look for them to be hungrier than ever to get back to the big stage. I see them finishing top 2 in the Centennial with F&M. Both will be dancing next season.
Eastern loses 4 big time seniors and will need some of their youth to step up. A good recruiting class is needed for the Eagles to become a serious contender and join the likes of the above already listed. With that being said they are my favorites to win the Freedom again in 2016.
Scranton will be back in action looking to repeat in the Landmark after only losing 3 seniors. And I think they will. Etown loses too much and Scranton will have a much better season statistically next season compared to this last one which will only give them more confidence. This team can be scary if they click next year.
Dickinson loses 8 seniors but that only includes 3 starters. They will need to reload if they want to compete for a Centennial championship next season. I can see them missing out on NCAAs as they have been close to doing so the past 2 seasons. I think their time is finally up and they get snubbed(in their eyes) in 2016.
Other Notables:
Keep and eye on JHU, Susquehanna, Cabrini, Morrisville St., Kings and Alvernia.
What about Muhlenberg? Will they have a shot at reaching the tournament next year. They were able to piece together a few good seasons...
I would also keep an eye out for Manhattanville Meltingpots... They are slowly improving each year.
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on December 14, 2015, 01:44:17 PM
What about Muhlenberg? Will they have a shot at reaching the tournament next year. They were able to piece together a few good seasons...
I would also keep an eye out for Manhattanville Meltingpots... They are slowly improving each year.
Interested to see how programs with new coaches will do in this region...Manhattanville and Misericordia will both be under new leadership next season. Both those schools, especially Misericordia, have been playoff contenders in the Freedom each season.
Muhlenberg will be interesting to see how they develop. From Sweet 16 to a losing record. I don't think they will be competitive next season. Probably better than this year (5-9-2 I think) but closer to .500 or better by a game. A team not mentioned to watch a little more closely is Swarthmore. Had a rough season but always a competitor in the Centennial. Made playoffs and had a .500 record in conference. I think they can be strong next season.