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Anyone have a team they think is riding high and could make a surprise run? I think there are several, anyone have any thoughts on it?

 I'll take a #3 seed Yeshiva; I think they'll make the Elite 8 game, at least.

Quote from: ronk on March 02, 2022, 11:31:09 AM
I'll take a #3 seed Yeshiva; I think they'll make the Elite 8 game, at least.

This is an understandable misunderstanding, and I should have noted Women's bracket, but I did post this in the Women's Basketball section.

Agree that Yeshiva is a good one on the men's side though.

 I should have noticed; in that case, I'll choose #3 seed Rhodes, hosting because the UMHB men are hosting.

At the risk of spoiling the Tournament preview I'm writing, here are a couple:

* Hope quadrant: I'm not sure if Amherst or Tufts counts as a spoiler, given their pedigree, but they aren't as dominant or even consistently Top 10. I really like the front court strength and back court shooting that Whitman brings to the table, too.

* Simpson quadrant: I've been high on UW-Whitewater all season and have had them higher than the poll, even after losses. They have a similar profile to Whitman. If you think Tufts or Amherst has a chance to make the Final Four, then include Smith in that, too.

* Hope quadrant: NYU is hard to guage because the UAA had a down year. But I've liked what I've seen on video, for whatever that's worth. UW-Eau Claire could get hot from outside (where they do most of their shooting) and beat anyone. I don't know if the Blugolds can string that together for four games in a row. Or how about Scranton?

* Transylvania quadrant: I think this is the most open quadrant. Trine's not really a surprise, but I could see UMHB winning that bracket. Again, I've been much higher on the Cru than the rest of the pollsters.

Quote from: gordonmann on March 02, 2022, 01:01:13 PM
At the risk of spoiling the Tournament preview I'm writing, here are a couple:

* Hope quadrant: I'm not sure if Amherst or Tufts counts as a spoiler, given their pedigree, but they aren't as dominant or even consistently Top 10. I really like the front court strength and back court shooting that Whitman brings to the table, too.

* Simpson quadrant: I've been high on UW-Whitewater all season and have had them higher than the poll, even after losses. They have a similar profile to Whitman. If you think Tufts or Amherst has a chance to make the Final Four, then include Smith in that, too.

* Hope quadrant: NYU is hard to guage because the UAA had a down year. But I've liked what I've seen on video, for whatever that's worth. UW-Eau Claire could get hot from outside (where they do most of their shooting) and beat anyone. I don't know if the Blugolds can string that together for four games in a row. Or how about Scranton?

* Transylvania quadrant: I think this is the most open quadrant. Trine's not really a surprise, but I could see UMHB winning that bracket. Again, I've been much higher on the Cru than the rest of the pollsters.

Whitman and UW-EC are two the jumped out at me also. UW-EC is one of a very small number of teams that could knock off Hope, IMHO.

CNU bracket:
I have Trinity, TX over Hardin-Simmons in the first round, I think the rest go off without an upset.

Whitman v Trinity is going to be interesting. If Whitman keeps it slow and half court I think they can pull this off. It also then bodes very well for them against CNU. While CNU v Trinity would be a track meet.

Amherst v Tufts take 3. It is really hard to beat a good team three times in the same season. The first time Tufts had Covid issues, the second time Amherst was the one missing bodies, but the outcome was the same. Unless Tufts figures out how to stop Amherst's offense (or Amherst goes 1-14 on open threes like the first three quarters of the Bates game) it will go the same way again.

Amherst (or Tufts) v CNU would be a clash of styles. CNU scores 85 a game, 34 of those "off turnovers" and 22 from behind the 3 point line. Can CNU score points out of a half court offense with a 5'10"-6'1" guard playing defense against Fan? And can they stop a team that brings three 6'0" plus players into a disciplined offensive set eating 20 seconds of clock each trip that only turns the ball over 14 times a game, and most of those on entry passes to the post? Whichever team can impose its style for the majority of the 40 minutes would win.

But getting the 1 and 2 (or 3) seeds into the elite eight is not bringing a "spoiler" to the table.

Hope Bracket:
As much fun as the games will be I think it is the top four seeds; Hope, Eau Claire and NYU, Scranton. Not really sure how it plays out but it is Hope's to lose, if they don't lay an egg they are through. Again, not sure bringing the top four seeds in is a spoiler.

Smith Bracket:
Just the opposite in my mind. Smith, DePauw, Whitewater, Gettysburg, Baldwin Wallace, Wis. Lutheran or Simpson - take your pick. It feels like any one of those seven could get hot enough to win 4 straight. Covid has created a situation where none of these teams have deep tournament experience (if I did my research none played a sweet 16 game in 2019, we didn't have sweet 16 games in 2020 and no tournament in 2021) so it may be just which team stays calm and composed the second weekend.

Transylvania Bracket:
Transylvania, Ithaca and Trine. One of those three (again top 3 seeds) will represent. The Ithaca v Trine game will be great and the Transylvania v winner will be fantastic. But, not bringing a spoiler.

In Tufts pod don't pass on Desales very well coached team that plays tough defense and can Shoot!

Quote from: MrMaus on March 02, 2022, 01:41:04 PM
Amherst (or Tufts) v CNU would be a clash of styles. CNU scores 85 a game, 34 of those "off turnovers" and 22 from behind the 3 point line. Can CNU score points out of a half court offense with a 5'10"-6'1" guard playing defense against Fan? And can they stop a team that brings three 6'0" plus players into a disciplined offensive set eating 20 seconds of clock each trip that only turns the ball over 14 times a game, and most of those on entry passes to the post? Whichever team can impose its style for the majority of the 40 minutes would win.

I am so interested to see how the elite turnover teams (specifically CNU and Hope) do against teams that take care of the ball.

Quote from: scottiedawg on March 02, 2022, 04:09:03 PM

Quote from: MrMaus on March 02, 2022, 01:41:04 PM
Amherst (or Tufts) v CNU would be a clash of styles. CNU scores 85 a game, 34 of those "off turnovers" and 22 from behind the 3 point line. Can CNU score points out of a half court offense with a 5'10"-6'1" guard playing defense against Fan? And can they stop a team that brings three 6'0" plus players into a disciplined offensive set eating 20 seconds of clock each trip that only turns the ball over 14 times a game, and most of those on entry passes to the post? Whichever team can impose its style for the majority of the 40 minutes would win.

I am so interested to see how the elite turnover teams (specifically CNU and Hope) do against teams that take care of the ball.

Well, Trine is #8 in D3 for fewest turnovers, at 12.9 per game over the full season.  That includes averaging over 20/game in 3 games vs. Hope.

True, but Trine wouldn't see CNU until the title game.

Whitman, Amherst and Tufts are in the CNU bracket. My sense is they are all pretty good with the ball.

Quote from: gordonmann on March 02, 2022, 05:04:13 PM
True, but Trine wouldn't see CNU until the title game.

Whitman, Amherst and Tufts are in the CNU bracket. My sense is they are all pretty good with the ball.

Having watched those three they do have 14-15 turnovers a game, but the vast majority come when they are trying to get an entry pass to the post. And those types of turnovers don't typically lead to fast breaks. Does not mean a CNU (or Hope) won't get their turnovers with quick hands and aggressiveness, just that they won't get easy points off them. CNU gets fast break points and open threes from disorganized transition defense, those should be far and few between if someone wants to beat them.

Because Hope can create points out of a half court set. For someone to beat Hope the team will have to minimize giving up transition points, shoot efficiently from three point range and maintain poise if you are ahead in the 4th quarter as Hope ratchets up the pressure. And then make your free throws.

Quote from: gordonmann on March 02, 2022, 05:04:13 PM
True, but Trine wouldn't see CNU until the title game.

Whitman, Amherst and Tufts are in the CNU bracket. My sense is they are all pretty good with the ball.

Agreed, would be so interesting to see any of them against CNU.  Was just pointing out an example of a team that takes care of the ball just about as well as anyone (Trine) against the other of the "elite turnover teams" mentioned.

The teams in the tournament with the fewest turnovers per game average.

UW-Oshkosh - 10.9
UW-EC - 11.1
Bates - 11.8
Wisconsin Lutheran - 11.9
Trine - 12.9

There may be a Bo Ryan trickledown effect influence with coaches in Wisconsin concerning turnovers. 

of late, CNU has varied its full court press to be less zone and more man press.  this is just to reduce time on shot clock and make starters work (and fatigue them).  this has also reduced number of open 3pt looks by opponents.
The matchup problems against CNU is not only its starting 5 but how many minutes its next 5 play.
Finally, scoring tends to be who ever has the hot hand.  although Fan is really good, before C2C championship game, she was really off for last 3 games before that (avg only 4 ppg in those 3 games).  the slack was picked up by another starter and bench. 
To beat them, you MUST limit them to less than 70.  the four "close" games had CNU around 70. Gettysburg (70-67), @Mary Wash (68-61), @Salibury (63-57), UCSC (74-70).

Quote from: MrMaus on March 02, 2022, 05:21:25 PM

Quote from: gordonmann on March 02, 2022, 05:04:13 PM
True, but Trine wouldn't see CNU until the title game.

Whitman, Amherst and Tufts are in the CNU bracket. My sense is they are all pretty good with the ball.

Having watched those three they do have 14-15 turnovers a game, but the vast majority come when they are trying to get an entry pass to the post. And those types of turnovers don't typically lead to fast breaks. Does not mean a CNU (or Hope) won't get their turnovers with quick hands and aggressiveness, just that they won't get easy points off them. CNU gets fast break points and open threes from disorganized transition defense, those should be far and few between if someone wants to beat them.

Because Hope can create points out of a half court set. For someone to beat Hope the team will have to minimize giving up transition points, shoot efficiently from three point range and maintain poise if you are ahead in the 4th quarter as Hope ratchets up the pressure. And then make your free throws.

The interesting thing about Hope is that they do generate a fair number of fast breaks out of post turnovers.  Olivia Voskuil (6-3 four time DPOY in the MIAA) is great at the low post steal (or block) and then hitting teammates out on the run for easy baskets. 

Quote from: Flying Dutch Fan on March 03, 2022, 09:47:14 AM

Quote from: MrMaus on March 02, 2022, 05:21:25 PM

Quote from: gordonmann on March 02, 2022, 05:04:13 PM
True, but Trine wouldn't see CNU until the title game.

Whitman, Amherst and Tufts are in the CNU bracket. My sense is they are all pretty good with the ball.

Having watched those three they do have 14-15 turnovers a game, but the vast majority come when they are trying to get an entry pass to the post. And those types of turnovers don't typically lead to fast breaks. Does not mean a CNU (or Hope) won't get their turnovers with quick hands and aggressiveness, just that they won't get easy points off them. CNU gets fast break points and open threes from disorganized transition defense, those should be far and few between if someone wants to beat them.

Because Hope can create points out of a half court set. For someone to beat Hope the team will have to minimize giving up transition points, shoot efficiently from three point range and maintain poise if you are ahead in the 4th quarter as Hope ratchets up the pressure. And then make your free throws.

The interesting thing about Hope is that they do generate a fair number of fast breaks out of post turnovers.  Olivia Voskuil (6-3 four time DPOY in the MIAA) is great at the low post steal (or block) and then hitting teammates out on the run for easy baskets. 

... or taking it all the way herself.  She has that kind of speed and handles.

Not to spoil any reveals later on today, but I picked Trinity (TX) as my surprise Final Four team.  I think they can handle the ball well enough to battle CNU and I think they can stand toe to toe defensively with Tufts or Amherst.  The travel might be a difficult consideration, and maybe they won't make it, but I do think they're a tough out for any team they play in this tournament.

Quote from: VT-Alum-NOVA on March 02, 2022, 08:42:41 PM
of late, CNU has varied its full court press to be less zone and more man press.  this is just to reduce time on shot clock and make starters work (and fatigue them).  this has also reduced number of open 3pt looks by opponents.
The matchup problems against CNU is not only its starting 5 but how many minutes its next 5 play.
Finally, scoring tends to be who ever has the hot hand.  although Fan is really good, before C2C championship game, she was really off for last 3 games before that (avg only 4 ppg in those 3 games).  the slack was picked up by another starter and bench. 
To beat them, you MUST limit them to less than 70.  the four "close" games had CNU around 70. Gettysburg (70-67), @Mary Wash (68-61), @Salibury (63-57), UCSC (74-70).

The problem with CNU is their best win is against the team we were debating as the 20th team in Pool C. Tufts beat UCSC 75-47, so offensively equivalent to CNU but 23 points better on defense. CNU has very talented and athletic players but they have not played a top 16 team yet and now they will need to win 4 in a row against that level of competition. Not saying they can't we won't get to see until the second weekend.

Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on March 03, 2022, 09:58:15 AM

Not to spoil any reveals later on today, but I picked Trinity (TX) as my surprise Final Four team.  I think they can handle the ball well enough to battle CNU and I think they can stand toe to toe defensively with Tufts or Amherst.  The travel might be a difficult consideration, and maybe they won't make it, but I do think they're a tough out for any team they play in this tournament.

They could be the classic (super low SOS but actually good). Low SOS doesn't mean a team is bad. Just means we may not know. I watched Trinity in a handful of games and it was largely them turning over hapless opponents. They looked good, but was hard to get a barometer.

In a devious sort of way, it would be interesting to see Trinity/Amherst as Trinity has a former Mammoth staring for them.
Also noticed former Lady Royal & Salisbury Head Coach Kelly Baskow has her team sent to the Gettysburg pod where she spent several years as an Asst. Coach.
Planned or pure circumstance?  ;D

I have an Amherst/Whitewater projected semifinal matchup on that side of the bracket.  I guess that could be surprising, maybe??

Quote from: MrMaus on March 03, 2022, 10:11:58 AM

Quote from: VT-Alum-NOVA on March 02, 2022, 08:42:41 PM
of late, CNU has varied its full court press to be less zone and more man press.  this is just to reduce time on shot clock and make starters work (and fatigue them).  this has also reduced number of open 3pt looks by opponents.
The matchup problems against CNU is not only its starting 5 but how many minutes its next 5 play.
Finally, scoring tends to be who ever has the hot hand.  although Fan is really good, before C2C championship game, she was really off for last 3 games before that (avg only 4 ppg in those 3 games).  the slack was picked up by another starter and bench. 
To beat them, you MUST limit them to less than 70.  the four "close" games had CNU around 70. Gettysburg (70-67), @Mary Wash (68-61), @Salibury (63-57), UCSC (74-70).

The problem with CNU is their best win is against the team we were debating as the 20th team in Pool C. Tufts beat UCSC 75-47, so offensively equivalent to CNU but 23 points better on defense. CNU has very talented and athletic players but they have not played a top 16 team yet and now they will need to win 4 in a row against that level of competition. Not saying they can't we won't get to see until the second weekend.

best win is Gettysburg was best win, then Salisbury 2X (according to NCAA selection committee), then UCSC.

Best game yesterday Springfield vs Ithaca! Great Game by both teams.

That was a great game. Great atmosphere and big plays by both teams in the final minute.

I was wrong about Springfield. They are legit.

Quote from: gordonmann on March 06, 2022, 08:13:23 PM
That was a great game. Great atmosphere and big plays by both teams in the final minute.

I was wrong about Springfield. They are legit.

What a difference them Students made at that end of the basket!That girl that made that shot was smooth as butter!