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Messages - Jeremybozz

#1
 Cleive Adams named Head Coach at Ferrum after 6 years at Averett.
#2
Bridgewater upsets #26 Guilford 68-62 for the 1,000th win in program history.
#3
 Bridgewater 77,Va. Wesleyan 73 Final
#4
Mary Baldwin 81,Bridgewater 77 OT Final
#5
Bridgewater 72,Eastern Mennonite 67 Final
#6
Eastern Mennonite 33,Bridgewater 28 Halftime
#7
Congrats to Emory & Henry alum Coach Mike Young on Virginia Tech's 71-66 win over Tom Izzo and Michigan State.
Also,  Bridgewater leads Eastern Mennonite 17-14 with 6  minutes until half.
#8
Pfeiffer 98,Bridgewater 96 Final in Overtime
#9
  Congrats to Del  Valley. They held BC to 31 rushing yards. Del Valley had the better offense and defense but Bridgewater's Special Teams still almost pulled it out with 218 return yards to the Aggies 97.
  The BC wideout tipping the ball to the Aggies for Jay's 2nd INT of the year as BC was driving, along with Jay's 1st lost fumble of the season for an Aggie fumble return for a TD sealed the deal. BC had several personal fouls to keep Del Valley drives alive.
  Looking forward to the Del Valley at Wesley rematch. Here's to another 4 OT game.
  Congrats to Macon and Shenandoah for great wins too. (70-35 in Shenandoah's case).
   
#10
Quote from: Matt Barnhart (kid) on November 20, 2019, 10:31:24 AM
As promised, here is the "tale of the tape" for the NCAA first round playoff game between Bridgewater and Delaware Valley...








Bridgewater
   |   
RANKINGS
   |   
Delaware Valley
#21
   |      |   
#9
#20
   |   
AFCA Top 25
   |   
#9
#3 South
   |   
NCAA Regional
   |   
#3 East
#98 (0.514)
   |   
SOS
   |   
#80 (0.520)
OFFENSE
39.2
   |   
Points Per Game
   |   
37.2
413.3
   |   
Total Yards Per Game
   |   
394.8
6.2
   |   
Total Yards Per Attempt
   |   
6.1
241.2
   |   
Passing Yards Per Game
   |   
241.9
8.3
   |   
Passing Yards Per Attempt
   |   
8.8
172.1
   |   
Rushing Yards Per Game
   |   
152.9
4.6
   |   
Rushing Yards Per Attempt
   |   
4.1
30:58
   |   
Time of Possession Per Game
   |   
30:59
DEFENSE
11.7
   |   
Points Per Game
   |   
10.3
272.1
   |   
Total Yards Per Game
   |   
182.5
4.0
   |   
Total Yards Per Attempt
   |   
3.0
167.8
   |   
Passing Yards Per Game
   |   
136.6
5.2
   |   
Passing Yards Per Attempt
   |   
4.5
104.2
   |   
Rushing Yards Per Game
   |   
45.9
2.9
   |   
Rushing Yards Per Attempt
   |   
1.5
3.2
   |   
Sacks Per Game
   |   
3.9
+11
   |   
Turnover Margin
   |   
+4

A couple of (obvious) statistical observations:

    * DVU has more National respect
    * DVU had a tougher strength of schedule (MAC considered stronger top to bottom than ODAC)
    * A virtual coin flip on the offensive side of the ball
    * DVU is much stronger on defense -- allowing only 1.5 yards per rush is insane (39 total sacks helps)
    * BC has the edge in turnovers allowed (7 to 18), but DVU has forced more turnovers (22 to 18)

If you dive deeper into the turnover margin numbers -- something jumps out (at least to me, it does). Delaware Valley's achilles heel seems to be coughing up the ball (27 fumbles/INTs -- 18 fumbles lost/INTs). One of Bridgewater's strengths is forcing turnovers (24 FF/INTs -- 18 FR/INTs). With a potentially cold and rainy day this Saturday (current forecast at kickoff is 39, overcast) -- turnovers may play a big part. The Eagles have a slight advantage with having played more games this year in 30/40 degree weather. Looks like the Aggies have only had one game in that type of weather (a close 28-21 win over a 5-5 Widener team to end the regular season).

Albeit early season games, here is a statistical comparison of when both Bridgewater and Delaware Valley played Stevenson (2nd place MAC team)...





Bridgewater
   |   
OFFENSE
   |   
Delaware Valley
37
   |   
Points
   |   
28
423
   |   
Total Yards Gained
   |   
304
6.3
   |   
Total Yards Per Attempt
   |   
6.6
217
   |   
Passing Yards Gained
   |   
239
8.3
   |   
Passing Yards Per Attempt
   |   
11.4
206
   |   
Rushing Yards Gained
   |   
65
5.0
   |   
Rushing Yards Per Attempt
   |   
2.6
29:11
   |   
Time of Possession
   |   
21:58
DEFENSE
22
   |   
Points Allowed
   |   
21
326
   |   
Total Yards Allowed
   |   
249
4.7
   |   
Total Yards Per Attempt
   |   
3.5
269
   |   
Passing Yards Allowed
   |   
216
7.3
   |   
Passing Yards Per Attempt
   |   
6.5
57
   |   
Rushing Yards Allowed
   |   
33
1.7
   |   
Rushing Yards Per Attempt
   |   
0.8
7
   |   
Sacks
   |   
8
+1
   |   
Turnover Margin
   |   
-1

On one hand, you could take Delaware Valley's balanced offensive attack and dominant defensive performance this season and say it will be a 24-10 Aggie win this Saturday. On the other hand, you could take the turnover margin, consistent rushing attack, potential weather, and home field advantage -- and say Bridgewater will pull out a tight one, 19-17.

Because I need to take my Bridgewater fan hat off, and sleep on these stats for a couple of days -- I will reserve my "official" prognostication until later this week. ;)

What say you?!
19-17? That was the score in the 2002 playoffs when King's came in from the MAC with the great defense and the high winds knocked down the King's 32 yard field goal attempt about foot short short with 57 seconds left to play and BC won by 2. BC had 18 rushing yards and Richard Jackson had 259 rushing yards by himself. Trinity TX came into Bridgewater the next week with 1 to 1.5 feet of snow on the ground and defeated the Eagles 38-32(I felt certain we could beat a team from Texas with that much snow on the ground. lol) Trinity won 2 of 3 playoff games against Bridgewater from 2000-2002.
 
#11
     Bridgewater and Delaware Valley look to be essentially equal in most phases with Bridgewater ranking a bit better in turnover margin and Delaware Valley being excellent at stopping the run. If the Eagles are not able to run consistently will they be able to pass it? The first quarter to quarter and a half might be the time to find out as the weather forecast is drier but as the heavier rains arrive in the 2nd quarter passing could become more difficult. A coin flip of a game with Del Valley getting 50 to 100 more yards but Bridgewater winning the turnover battle by a margin of 1 to 2 could be in store. Will say Bridgewater 14, Del Valley 13 with the home field.
   Leaving the field at Scott D. Miller stadium in Wesley on December 3,2005 I never dreamed it would take BC 14 long years to get back into the D3 Football playoffs. Win or lose I will savor and enjoy the moment and frankly be happy that Coach Clark made it back to the playoffs after nearly a decade and a half. Here's to a close and enjoyable game by two very good football teams. Good luck to the Eagles and the Aggies.
#12
Delaware Valley defeated Stevenson 28-21. Bridgewater defeated Stevenson 37-22.
#13
Delaware Valley at Bridgewater with the winner to face the Framingham State at Wesley winner.
#14
JMU 96,Shenandoah 48 Final
#15
Shenandoah 17, James Madison 12 with just over 10 minutes left until half.