Quote from: jknezek on July 13, 2020, 11:01:15 AM

Quote from: Frank Rossi on July 13, 2020, 10:57:15 AM
Union will be announcing in a little while that they will not be playing fall sports and will update on winter and spring sports on 9/15. This is one of the first schools that will have all students back and that independently canceled their season without conference unity.

Several schools have done this including W&L. But yeah, not too many... yet.

Not independently from the conference. W&L yes. The NESCAC/Centennial/UAA schools in the PAC are a different story. The general trend for schools like RPI and Bowdoin initially was that they weren't bringing all classes back, so they couldn't play.

Union will be announcing in a little while that they will not be playing fall sports and will update on winter and spring sports on 9/15. This is one of the first schools that will have all students back and that independently canceled their season without conference unity.

Quote from: Machiavelli on November 14, 2019, 04:06:41 PM
Kind of humorous, I was just picking my daughter up at school and listening to local sports radio on the way there(not a d3 podcast since JU's isn't live yet) and the 'Mr. D3' comment popped in my head and gave me a good chuckle. I'm pretty sure i've never labeled myself anything of the sort. I was definitely a lot closer to it like 10+ years ago than I am now. I can probably name about 5 players in the LL this year. Ironically, 3 play for Union. I was at a High School game during the RPI/Ithaca game and didn't catch a single second of it.

One thing I can do is watch a game, at any level, and over-analyze every tiny little thing that goes on. I don't need names. I don't need their history. I don't need numbers or teams. But I can break down football better than most. I can see talent. I can see where coaches suck and where they are very good. I can tell when a team isn't as good as their record and has coaches putting them in the best position to succeed and win, or just that their opponents just aren't that good. And to be honest, it's more of a curse, because it makes the games less enjoyable from a fan standpoint most of the time and there's sometimes a lot of frustration involved, even if I'm not 'routing' for either team, because most of the time, the kids could be put in a better position to be successful. It's sometimes why I choose to listen to a game rather than watch it. I know there are more 'fanboys' out there who think they actually know and understand football to that extent, but really don't have much of a clue. I kind of wish I could be more of a football 'fan' most days. On Sundays I try to be just a fan but even then it can be tough.

After seeing Union at RPI last year, I knew Union was going to be loaded this year. They certainly passed my eye test and they played hard and for a coach who was clearly doing good things. If I participated in the ERFP, I probably would've had them in the Top 3 right from the get go, although it would've hurt. I watched them play early on this year and knew that same team was back. I think I even commented earlier in the season how they weren't in the Top 25 and I found it to be laughable.  But again, that was based on the eye test, and not the stats and schedule and opponents and yadda yadda yadda which make up the criteria, usually for good reason. Turns out I was probably right.

That said, I think RPI can win this week, since anyone can win in the shoes rivalry. I think RPI is a lot better than their record, but they've had some issues all year. I haven't loved their play calling. I think they've underutilized some weapons, etc. But i'd put money on Union against probably everyone in the East, including Salisbury, Wesley and DVC. They could lose to any of them for sure(this is football afterall), but they are certainly good enough to beat them all.

Bottom line is, don't make sh!t up that I never said, because you continue making yourself look like this guy more every day...

Sounds like someone just posted something to fit their narrative... Someone more easily triggered than me... 

Quote from: Machiavelli on November 14, 2019, 01:41:58 PM

Quote from: Frank Rossi on November 14, 2019, 01:23:18 PM

Quote from: Machiavelli on November 14, 2019, 01:01:29 PM
Just looked at the Playoff Projections. I haven't paid a ton of attention to the ECFC but, my god....There's a team that Rochester would likely beat going to the playoffs. That's sad and just wrong.

The fact that you're just noticing this scares me.  I mean, there have been umpteen podcast and other mentions of what's been developing in the ECFC and about Dean's ineligibility, including the D3football.com ATN Podcast and Quick Hits.  Obviously, JU needs to start his "In the Muddle" podcast soon to help enlighten you, Mr. D3.

Ha! Ok pal. As previously mentioned, I have a family and kids and a life outside of who is the playoff candidate from the ECFC. Hate to break the news to you. It's called real happiness.

Hey JU, when you start your podcast, let me know if you need a sidekick at any point. I might be able to get Mount Union on for some insight into the best program in Division 3. Would be fun.

With your apparent level of stalking on my Facebook page, you obviously have seen my family and my life outside Division 3.  During those drives to/from work, do what I do — pop in the ATN and ITH podcast audio (both available on iTunes Podcasts), and get a good education of the landscape.  Or watch our video highlight package to see how the major East games developed.  We had five clips from the Ithaca/RPI game this week, and nine clips of the Tommy Galante 9TD performance from FDU-Florham in the 84-56 game against Alvernia. 

No matter how you want to spin things, we have excellent relationships across the country.  Just because you and a particular parent don't like me doesn't keep me up at night or stop us from producing quality content.  And yet, I still have a life.  Who knew?!

As for the ECFC, I've said for weeks that this could finally force the Division to move to a different model, and I asked the VP of D3 about football being treated differently (in terms of a different access ratio or different approach entirely) during our Stagg Bowl Pregame Show a few seasons ago.  He said because of the inability to add another playoff week and the special nature of football, it's possible.  Now that we're down to just 5 at-large bids for 247 teams, that question is even more magnified than it was when SLU gained access at 5-5 in 2010.  If SUNY-Maritime loses to MSJ Saturday and falls to 4-6, I expect some folks inside the D3 football structure to begin to make some proposals to change the access approach or, at the very least, reconsider the two-year waiver policy the ECFC is using (leaving just 5 eligible teams getting a guaranteed bid right now).  It's a bad look for us — and you can't blame SUNY-Maritime for it.  We had our warning nine years ago, but now it's happened again.

Quote from: Machiavelli on November 14, 2019, 01:01:29 PM
Just looked at the Playoff Projections. I haven't paid a ton of attention to the ECFC but, my god....There's a team that Rochester would likely beat going to the playoffs. That's sad and just wrong.

The fact that you're just noticing this scares me.  I mean, there have been umpteen podcast and other mentions of what's been developing in the ECFC and about Dean's ineligibility, including the D3football.com ATN Podcast and Quick Hits.  Obviously, JU needs to start his "In the Muddle" podcast soon to help enlighten you, Mr. D3.

UFanBill, I'd politely disagree.  I was more impressed with Andrew Vito that day.  He stretched a short gain into an impossible long TD and kept the game close twice with his TD receptions as Gladney got pretty much doubled throughout.  If Vito didn't step up, that score would've been more lopsided.

JU, for the umpteenth time, you're misrepresenting what ITH and I both have said about TOP.  It's a fact that defenses on the field longer are vulnerable to fatigue and issues later in the game.  They have to sub out players more, and in D3, your depth at those positions isn't the same depth as the NFL.  If your offense is scoring on quick drives, then it places the onus on the other offense to respond.  And as the score becomes imbalanced against inferior competition, the defenses don't show those ill effects nearly as much, especially when the second and third teams come in during the third quarter.  The issue is when you're playing a team of equal caliber or near equal caliber.  I believe Ithaca held the ball for 3 minutes in the third quarter vs. Union.  And while nobody scored in that quarter, suddenly, Irabor was able to get bigger chunks of yardage in the 4th.  Defensive linemen are the most vulnerable to this situation from what I've witnessed, as the OLine is able to open up gaps faster and better as this develops.  In the RPI game, the defense needed to stop the bleeding at 21-0, but they couldn't with any assistance from the offense; they were seemingly constantly on the field.

TOP isn't correlated to wins and losses.  But it's a number that can help show how the balance of the game could have affected the sides of the ball.  Quick drives that lead to no scoring are double whammies because the defense is taxed further and the other offense has an opportunity to one-up the team on the scoreboard.  And the number of empty quick drives in those challenging games was very high.  Joe G threw SIXTY times against Union.  He was at his best in 2017 when he ran the ball for nearly 100 yards in some games because it would stretch out the game and forced defenses to respect the pass more.  Before the Union game, someone said to me that they'd challenge Joe to throw the ball.  I said, no, they'd challenge him to run, and if he doesn't, they won't win.  Part of it was because over-reliance on the passing game can cause unintended consequences on both sides of the ball.

Finally, this whole notion that I have a bone to pick with Joe Jr. is wrong.  After the incident at Butterfield, I sent him a note apologizing for telling his father (after the third time he called me classless and a bully while I was trying to do my postgame work) to kiss my backside.  And I also told him how much I do respect him and his brother, John, as players and people.  His father deciding to confront me is whatever in my world — and I won't back down from someone doing that.  If security was present, I would've had them deal with it.  I reported it to the AD since I'm concerned he might do that to other folks, and it's not appropriate.  Joe Jr. is a great football player, but part of the progression in 2018 and 2019 is that what set him apart as a premiere quarterback was somewhat abandoned — the R in the RPO.  And watching the stats and the numbers tells me that he's not at his 2017 level of play.  I have the right to state that as a commentator, and I have a valid basis to make that statement since we followed him so closely over the last three seasons.  It was my understanding that he wanted to play somewhere that would give him more latitude to make offensive decisions.  But seeing him throw 60 times vs. Union (33 in the first half alone I believe) told me that day that he's trying too hard to get the ball down the field with his arm.  He would escape but then back out and still throw in that game more than he would have two years ago.  Did Union have a spy on him?  Sure.  But he could've beaten that spy more often than not.

My point is that when Ithaca plays these very good teams, they need to figure out how to rely on their run for multiple reasons.  If he's going to insist on uncorking the ball 60 times, then you're running a larger than necessary risk to lose games if he can't connect efficiently on those passes.  And that's what has made me shrug about how he's progressed of late — this hasn't been the best utilization of him, and I'm not sure if it's the system or his own desire to show his arm going on here.  That's my honest assessment; I have zero personal animus despite the incident from two weeks ago because, as folks had warned me for a couple years, that BS unfortunately comes with the territory.

Quote from: UfanBill on November 12, 2019, 03:51:39 PM
Listen I know Frank... and Mach, thanks for the complement... BUT I'm staying out of this. 

LET'S GO U

Quote from: Jonny Utah on November 12, 2019, 03:37:04 PM

Quote from: Bartman on November 12, 2019, 03:28:33 PM
I think Jonny Utah wins the statistical analysis debate with Frank.......I would listen to a Jonny U podcast , just not with an excruciating analysis of TOP with Frank as the guest. Give me back Lime Jello with Mach

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2011/keeping-defense-field

You want to see some intense statistical analysis on TOP and the affects on the defense?  Read this masterpiece.  The author sums it up.

The Question:

Do Offenses Improve Defensive Performance By Extending Drives?

The home team is down by a touchdown with eight minutes left in the fourth quarter. For the second drive in a row, its offense sputters and punts after a three-and-out. The defense gets back on the field, beaten, broken, and exhausted. If the offense had been able to sustain drives, the defense might have had the energy to prevent the opposing offense from scoring another touchdown, effectively ending the game.

This is a common story told repeatedly by announcers during fourth quarters. If the offense had played better and allowed the defense to rest more, the defense would have played more effectively.



The authors conclusion:

Conventional wisdom holds that offenses affect the performance of their defense through their ability to extend drives, and allow the defense additional time to rest. This conventional wisdom does not seem to be supported by the data. As shown here, the number of plays an offense runs per drive has very little impact on the performance of the defense. One simple explanation for this result is that a team's defensive players aren't the only ones that rest while their offense drives down the field. The opposing offense gets to rest too. The net impact, as shown here, is negligible.

Taste it

Because NFL statistical analysis is so relevant to Division 3.  Defenses and defenders are built differently in the NFL.  When you walk the sideline and see players gassed and look at TOP when you see it (that's where I am almost every week of the season), I think it goes beyond statistical analysis and goes into reality when you have two more evenly-matched teams.

Quote from: Jonny Utah on November 12, 2019, 03:21:39 PM
In the end they don't matter.

247 D3 coaches on Lines 1 through 247 for you, JU.  It matters a lot.  They scored 35 in the 2nd quarter vs. SLU and 28 in the 2nd quarter vs. Rochester.  It took both of those teams out of their game plans immediately.  It also is a false equivalency to use lesser teams to balance how the Ithaca defense is built this year.  Even a fatigued Ithaca defense in those games should still win.  The games we test should be frontrunners like HOB, UNI, RPI.  I don't have the time to dig into Hobart's box right now, but I'd be curious to see that game flow.

Quote from: Jonny Utah on November 12, 2019, 02:31:57 PM

Quote from: Jonny Utah on November 12, 2019, 01:04:46 PM

Quote from: Frank Rossi on November 12, 2019, 12:58:27 PM

Quote from: Frank Rossi on November 12, 2019, 12:55:34 PM

Quote from: Jonny Utah on November 12, 2019, 12:51:45 PM

Quote from: Frank Rossi on November 12, 2019, 12:28:02 PM
Not in the case of Union/Ithaca, JU.  Go look at the Ithaca drive chart.  Throw out the 11 minutes in two drives, and look at the remaining TOP per drive.  It's astounding.

I could do the same for Tom Brady playing against the Miami Dolphins in Miami vs the Bills/Jets quarterbacks for the same years.  I'm trusting the coaches who watch 10,000 hours of film and coach another 1,000 hours of practice with this decision 

As for the Union drives, I'm not gonna let you spin this one.  You can explain or spin TOP stats in about 25 ways.  Union was able to convert on 8 of its 15 3rd downs, that was it's second highest 3rd down conversion all year (They were 5/8 in week one vs. Westfield for a 63% rate).

When you convert on third downs, your keep the ball longer and your TOP reflects that.  Union also played with a lead and maybe they used the clock more (and RPI obviously did).

Do you really think if they start Joe G and lose anyone will question the decision to play him bases on 2017 and 2018 games with a different QB?

Here, allow me to not spin it... Ithaca's drive TOPs in that game...

1:09
1:24
2:28
1:28
6:28
0:47
2:35
0:57
1:50
0:44
1:24
1:37

Didn't get much better vs. RPI...

2:31
0:06
1:48
4:53
1:25
0:26
0:01 (Half)
3:06
5:01
1:30
1:57
1:29

St. Lawrence and Rochester was pretty crappy too:

1:51
0:05
1:58
5:12
1:13
1:39
3:36
0:00
1:27

Roch:
1:04
5:33
1:45
1:39
0:12
1:37
0:00
0:51

Do we really hate Joe G. that much that we are arguing time of possession and games from 2017 where he played on a different team?

Again, insanity.

Ok back to football Frank,

Can you tell me the difference between Ithaca's first half TOP numbers vs. SLU and Rochester and the game numbers from Union/RPI?  Is their a difference?  (you can look at the 2nd half stats of those games but they were over at the half).  We can throw out one of the drives, or two of them.  Still don't think you get anything from TOP numbers to justify some sort of QB change in week 10.

The offense scored.

You're welcome, Everyone.

[EDIT: And hopefully this means Mach will stop stalking my Facebook page now.  That was just plain creepy.  I need a shower.]

Quote from: Machiavelli on November 12, 2019, 01:06:08 PM
And FYI, anyone who suggest starting a back up because he's been a good team player all year clearly has never played a team sport in their life either. This isn't Rudy.

The "back-up" went 8-1 vs. Liberty League teams as a starter.  To treat Nabi as a second-class QB is like considering you a second-class LLPP poster since you re-created your account two years ago yesterday.  I'll just ignore your BS from the prior X years because it must not matter.

Quote from: Machiavelli on November 12, 2019, 01:03:23 PM
JU, run for the Hills. It's like arguing with a drunk.

You argue with yourself frequently?

Quote from: Frank Rossi on November 12, 2019, 12:55:34 PM

Quote from: Jonny Utah on November 12, 2019, 12:51:45 PM

Quote from: Frank Rossi on November 12, 2019, 12:28:02 PM
Not in the case of Union/Ithaca, JU.  Go look at the Ithaca drive chart.  Throw out the 11 minutes in two drives, and look at the remaining TOP per drive.  It's astounding.

I could do the same for Tom Brady playing against the Miami Dolphins in Miami vs the Bills/Jets quarterbacks for the same years.  I'm trusting the coaches who watch 10,000 hours of film and coach another 1,000 hours of practice with this decision 

As for the Union drives, I'm not gonna let you spin this one.  You can explain or spin TOP stats in about 25 ways.  Union was able to convert on 8 of its 15 3rd downs, that was it's second highest 3rd down conversion all year (They were 5/8 in week one vs. Westfield for a 63% rate).

When you convert on third downs, your keep the ball longer and your TOP reflects that.  Union also played with a lead and maybe they used the clock more (and RPI obviously did).

Do you really think if they start Joe G and lose anyone will question the decision to play him bases on 2017 and 2018 games with a different QB?

Here, allow me to not spin it... Ithaca's drive TOPs in that game...

1:09
1:24
2:28
1:28
6:28
0:47
2:35
0:57
1:50
0:44
1:24
1:37

Didn't get much better vs. RPI...

2:31
0:06
1:48
4:53
1:25
0:26
0:01 (Half)
3:06
5:01
1:30
1:57
1:29