Great game tonight in Parkland, too bad the early part of the OT didn't go well for the Lutes. Crazy last minute of regulation and OT.
Anyway, Lutes had a great season. Congratulations!

I'm here to eat my healthy portion of crow. Congratuations to PLU and good luck in the balance of the tournament.  I hope to see a NWC team in Springfield!

Looks like the PLU/UPS game will be web cast tonight. There is a link on both the UPS and PLU web pages.

I think it's going to be a much closer game than any of the previous 3 meetings. The loggers are becoming more diverse with their scoring, (10 of 11 players scored last night, with 3 in double figues). Defensively they had some trouble with the Cal Lutheran center, (30 points), but did a great job closing down the rest of the team. The two freshmen players, (Allison & Karen), had a great game, scoring 11 and 10 points, respectively.

PLU didn't have much of a challenge with Chapman, beating them almost from the opening tip off.  They played well, but not inspired, which often happens when you don't have a challenge. 

Bottom line, UPS on an upswing, PLU will need to get back into high gear.  I see a 3 point game, UPS wins, with a balance scoring attack.  We'll see in a few hours.

Swiss,

I'm always a little worried when I see teams perform erratically. No one in the NWC has been perfect, (PLU, UPS, Whitman or GFU).  In the case of UPS, the games they have lost or been close in, have always been due to a combination of losing focus on defense, poor outside shooting and lack of use of the post players.  The last two are fairly tightly connected.  If they punish a team for weak inside play by pushing the ball to the post, the opposing team will either 1) lose or 2) make an adjustment, (go to a zone or sag to the middle). Either of these adjustments will reduce the pressure on the outside shooters and bring the outside game back.  UPS is a strong outside shooting team, (Killty, Sarah, Laura, Allison or Shelby can and have all stepped up.)  The common thread is to play as a team, which UPS has done fairly well all season.  They match up well position to position with every team they have faced all season, with the exception of the few games in which they struggeled.  The same can be said of all the other top NWC teams.  Great individuals won't win championships, only great team work gets you to that point.

I hope both NWC teams play their best, and I'm sure they intend on doing just that.  If they bring their "A" game, they will both win on Friday, and UPS will prevaile on Saturday.  If not, no games are "gimmes" at this time.  Both California teams have the potential to beat either team, if they are allowed the opportunity.

Both games on Friday should be good games.  UPS won against Cal Lutheran in December, but it wasn't easy.  The Cal Lutheran post is their most potent weapon, (average 22 ppg, & she scored 35 in the last meeting). UPS had good performance from their guards, and the Cal Lut post went cold when she was subed out in the second half.  In that game, the UPS post had probably her worst game & only played 9 minutes.  Based on the last few games, Chase should be in top form, and I don't see the Cal Lut post scoring anywhere near her average this time, (look at how Dee Dee performed against UPS, not that well when being guarded by Chase).  So, it could be close, but UPS will probably win.

PLU won against Chapman in November, but they are a similar team to L&C, which the PLU had difficulty with on one of their outings.  (They also tend to count on their post play).  I'd still bet on PLU in this game, as long as they don't give up too much in the middle, which is their weakness.

Assuming both PLU and UPS win, I think the 4th meeting will be much closer than any of the previous 3.  If UPS can focus on not turning over the ball, playing help side defense and working the ball more to the post, (Chase scored all but one of the times she shot, but only took 8 shots, as well as the good performance from Aderly), PLU will have a hard time walking away with the game.  I give a slight advantage ti UPS, (but I've been wrong before).  In any event, it will be a great game, and I think the NWC will be well represented into the sectionals.  Good luck to all!

Well said, Swiss!

When two teams that finish well back in a conference give good games to nationally ranked teams, I think it saya something about the quality of the conference.

Looking forward to the games this week in Tacoma & Parkland - I believe the first game will go to UPS by at least 15 points.  The loggers finish the season strong against Linfield, and I just can't see Whitman causing them any problems defensively.

The Saturday game will definately be one to watch. I anticipate a tough, high scoring game, but the Loggers will win this one as well.  I hope that PLU gets a Pool C invitation, because both these teams could do very well, if given the chance.

Congratulations to all three teams. You've done very well to get to this point!

I see UPS and PLU swapped possitions in the latest regional ranking, 2/15. I guess that's appropriate based on last weekend's results.  It's great to have two NWC teams at the top!

GFU will take the third seed if they win against PLU on Friday, (I can't see how they could lose to Willamette on Saturday).  If not, Whitman will take the third seed, (no way they would lose to Pacific on Friday).  So, the third seed will be decided for all practical purposes on Friday.

It gets a little more interesting for 1st and second.  If GFU wins the PLU game, but PLU wins against L&C, PLU would win the tie breaker (#4, Order of losses beginning with the 9th seed, etc), since UPS has a loss against #4 Whitman, and PLU does not.  However, if PLU were to lose to L&C, winning against GFU or not, UPS would either win outright, or win the #4 tiebreaker, since Whitman would be #3 or #4, and L&C would be #5. 

This is all predicated on UPS winning both its games this weekend, which is a pretty good bet, with Willamette and Linfield.

So, both Thursday and Saturdays games in Tacoma, but we'll have to wait until Saturday to see which location in Tacoma for the Thursday game. 

I'm sure all the teams will be bringing there best game. Should be a great finish.

The UPS loss to Whitman was a combination of good shooting from Whitman, and poor shooting from UPS. The NWC is now down to 5 teams with a mathimatical shot at the playoffs.

PLU contros its own destiny. If they can win against GFU and L&C this weekend, they will have the first place seed for next weekend.  However, a loss to either team, and UPS wins both their games, UPS will win the tie breaker. The worst they can end up is second.

UPS can drop no lower than second seed, even if they lose both games, since they would win the tie breaker with GFU, and Whitman and L&C can't reachthem in two games.

GFU also controls its own destiny. They can lock up the 3rd place seed by winning both their games, (PLU and Willamette). However, one loss and two wins by Whitman drops them to 4th place by virtue of Whitman's win over UPS.

Whitman needs to win both their games and hope for a loss for GFU.

L&C has a mathimatical possiblity, but they would need alot of help. GFU would need to lose both games, Whitman lose at least one and they would need to win both of their games.  Not very likely.

Looks like both the Thursday and Saturday games will be in Tacoma, at either UPS or PLU. 

Here's my fearless forecast:

PLU loss to GFU, 2nd place
UPS wins both, 1st place
GFU wins both, 3rd place.

In the playoffs:

PLU wins against GFU
UPS wins against PLU
Both go to the NCAA tournament, (I think that's the only way two teams wiould advance.)
 

GFU just sqeaked one by Linfield. They will almost certainly beat Willamette, then it comes down to L & C and PLU.  Let's give them the benefit of the doubt and say they win out & end up 11-5.  Following that line of reasoning:

L&C should win against Pacific and Linfield, and let's say they beat PLU, they also end up 11-5.

PLU, who has the worst schedule (Whiman, Whitworth, GFU and L&C).  Let's say they win only one of the W's, and end up 11-5.

UPS will lose at most 2 games, so let's say they loose both eastern Washington games, (I personnally think they will win out). That leaves them 12-4 and 1st place.

Whitman and Whitworth will play each other, so who ever looses that game is out.  Assuming the winner of that game win out, they would have a record of 11-5.

So, it's somewhat possible that we'll have a 4 way tie for 2nd place.  Anyway you slice it, the championship game will be in Tacoma, but everyone's still in it until after this weekend.

Again, my prediction:
1. UPS
2. PLU
3. L&C

PP,
Hope you made it to the GFU game Friday. It was quite a defensive battle.

Well, now we have a 4 way tie for the all important 3rd spot in the conference.  Unfortunately, I think Whitworth and Whitman will drop both games this week end, and be out of the race.  The interesting game to watch will be GFU vs. L&C. The winner of that game has a pretty good shot at the 3rd playoff spot.

If L&C brings pressure defense, they should win, as is evident looking at GFU record against tough defense. I have no idea how this one will turn out.

Rimshot,

I agree with most of what you say, I anticipate that PLU will lose only one more game (L&C) and will finish Conference @ 13 - 3.

While UPS does have a tough snext 3 games, I believe they will win them, and win out and will finsh Conference @ 14 - 2.

GFU will lose only 2 more games, (UPS & PLU), and will finish Conference @ 10 - 6.

Whitworth will lose 3 more games (L&C, UPS & PLU) and will finish Conference @ 9 - 7.

L&C will lose one more game (GFU) and will finish Conference @ 11 - 5.

Whitman will lose 4 more (L&C, PLU, UPS & Whitworth) and finish Conference @ 7 - 9.

Based on these outcomes, L & C would play @ PLU, winner to play UPS for the automatic berth. 

You're right, this week end and next will be very telling.

When UPS played PLU last time, they had one of their poorest defensive efforts this season, giving up points in the paint due to failure of off side help arriving for the lob inlet pass.

They have corrected that situation over the past few weeks, and the defense is now quite solid.  There will be no easy points in the paint, just ask Dee Dee if she had any easy points last weekend against UPS.

The "new" starting line up is undefeated. Craven and Hurst are really starting to add to the outside/driving offense, and no one is going to get easy points off Chase inside.

I think it will be a great game, but UPS should win by less than 10 points.  I'm looking forward to this match-up.

I think we're going to see this final for the season:

1. UPS
2. PLU
3. L&C

I'm not going to hazard to guess on how the NWC play-off ends up at this point.

Interesting developments over the week end... GFU drops two to the east side W's. UPS wins both their games ande we now have a 3 way tie for 3rd place. I'm assuming GFU will take a pretty health drop in the polls, PLU will probably rise a bit, and UPS will continue to be ignored.  That will probably change after Tuesday.  From what I saw over the weekend, UPS has succeded in establishing the balance that they need to consistantly win games. In my previous post, I didn't mention Keaton or Carnihan, since I assume most who are watching the NWC understand that they are proved commodities.  What has become apperent is that others on the UPS roster are stepping up, which will cause considerable problems for any team.  It's not just "stop Keaton and you've stopped UPS.  In fact, Keaton hasn't really been scoring that much the past few game, but has definately been contributing in other ways that aren't always obvious from the statistics.
Once again, I predict two more wins for UPS this coming week, and a hard fought battle for the third and final play-off spot over the next few weeks.

From what I've seen over the past few weeks, here's my prediction:

UPS will win it's next 4 games, (L&C, Pacific, PLU and GF).  No one appears to think they are a contender, but I believe this is an error.  They took a pretty bad loss to L&C in their opening conference game, but their other two losses were fairly tight games, and were definitely not "on" games for them.  The team has started utilizing their freshman post, who I don't believe can be stopped by anyone in the conference, and are more consistantly playing team defense. If they play their "A" game, ther's no one in the conference that can stay with them.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see.