word gets around quickly........

I would echo Loggerville's and chemguy's thoughts and extend my own congratulations to the PLU Lutes who really showed last night that they deserve to advance. I know they will represent our conference well and I hope they make it to The Final Four in Springfield. They will be playing at home next week so hopefully they will draw a large supportive crowd and use it to their advantage.

Speaking of the Final Four, here are my own Final Four closing thoughts:

1. There are a lot of good players around the NWC and if they gave a Hondo Havlicek Sixth Man Award my nominee would be Brie Adderley. The more I watch her the more I like her game.

2. I predicted the fall of PLU down the stretch and said they couldn't win without their starting point guard, Mallory Mann. But they proved last night that they could. Here's hoping she is at full strength next week.

3. My favorite moment of the season occurred last week during the closing seconds of the UPS vs. PLU conference play-off game. With UPS trailing by about 15 points, the ball went out of bounds, the whistle blew, and the clock showed 8 seconds left. Realizing that the scorekeeper had let an extra second run off the clock, the UPS coach screamed at the refs and demanded another second be put back on the clock. They gave her the extra tick. It was priceless.

4. Any chance we could take up a collection among the 9 or 10 folks who read this board to buy the UPS coach a crying towel? I think a buck a piece would cover it.

Rimshot: Swiss and Andrew are you two holding out any hope at all GFU gets an at large? 

> GFU has been eliminated and should remain eliminated.

ghr: Hopefully PLU has figured a way to stop the young post player who seems to be playing very well right now.

> Don't count on it. She can score down low and she can shoot from the outside too.

I don't think PLU has defeated UPS on their own home court in 3 years but I expect them to rise to the occasion tonight and I expect both of them to be playing next week.

All you have to do is take a close look at George Fox's season to know Liz Clark's value last year. I didn't read the postings last year but anyone who didn't recognize her value wasn't paying attention.

PP-

While the voting may very well go exactly as you suggest (do you know something we don't know?), my feelings are:

1. I'm not going to comment on your individual player selections because I don't want to come across as being negative. I will only say that stats don't mean everything. Besides, the coaches votes are the only ones that matters;

2. In my opinion, COY honors should go to Juli Fulks of Lewis & Clark for taking a team nobody thought would win to keeping them in the play-off hunt through the final weekend of the season. If I knew someone with a daughter coming out of high school who was interested in playing small college basketball, I would encourage her to take a long and hard look at Lewis & Clark knowing that she would have a great experience, receive a quality education,  and learn basketball inside and out;

3. There is not really a clear cut POY candidate as there has been in previous years. All things being equal the honor should go to Arnall. But players on 3-13 teams don't usually win these awards. My strong hunch is that the POY votes will be distributed among 2 or 3 or 4 players not including last year's winner;

4. I think you are over looking Laura Hirsch from UPS;

5. I like Coblentz as my center on the second team based on attitude, consistency, and effort if nothing else;

6. Mann deserves some recognition. She played hurt all season and without her the Lutes don't win. She missed two games and still managed to lead the conference in assists by a landslide. Besides, it looked to me like she did as much coaching over there as anyone;

7. I like all of the Whitman players – Patneaude, Higgins, Krumdieck, and Vertatschitsch – too bad there aren't enough spots for all;

8. Ditto for the quick Ridings sisters who rarely came off the floor;

9. Hats off to Laura Payne (and her teammates) for enduring a long season and playing hard the whole way;

10. Rookies: Do Schmidt and Johnson count? Of the new freshmen I like Craven and Chase from UPS, Hanato from Linfield, Richardson from PLU, and Kittell from Lewis & Clark. I' sure there are others.

Out of curiosity Parkland, how many of your all conference players have you seen play this year? How many games have you watched? Are you just gleaning stats?

I haven't been very succesful in making predictions to this point. I agreed with chemguy 2 weeks ago that the Lutes would stumble with the thinking that Mann was lost for the season. But now that she appears to be healthy, I gotta go with the Lutes this Saturday. They have out rebounded and out shot people like crazy the last half of the season. Their seniors don't seem to want to let them lose (leadership matters - just ask GF) and playing at home should give them the edge they need.

Assuming UPS beats Whitman which is not a given, the match-ups should change this time. If PLU puts Johnson on Carnahan she shouldn't be hauling in 10 rebounds from her PG position like she did in their last meeting which proved to be a big difference.

I hope the NWC gets two teams in this year. And I hope they don't place them in the same regional just to save money. Contrary to what okobob said, the league is no weaker than the next Div III league. Our teams have historically faired well against outside opponents and I think we'll prove that again. When the number 4 team in the nation doesn't even make the post season is the league weak?

And don't count the Missionaries out just yet. They have determined seniors and a tremendous coach. They'll be ready.

chemguy-

"However, a loss to either team, and UPS wins both their games, UPS will win the tie breaker".

Let's say your predictions hold true and UPS ties for the championship with PLU with identical 13-3 records.

Why do you say UPS holds the tie breaker? Wouldn't Puget Sound's loss to Whitman give the tie breaker to PLU assuming Whitman finishes below Lewis & Clark?

Wouldn't UPS be pulling for Whitman to finish higher than Lewis & Clark and wouldn't this make the Whitman vs. Whitworth game pretty important to UPS?

We are still looking at several tie scenarios.

I am from the West Coast where Div. III schools are private and where the small state schools tend to be Div. II or even NAIA with athletic money available.

I appreciate everyone's replies. I am new to these boards and didn't realize this topic had been kicked around already.

Can someone explain to me why the WIAC schools are not NCAA Div. II?

They sure have a distinct advantage over most Div. III private schools which typically cost $15,000/year more in tuition.

Have they ever considered the switch?

swiss-

In the event of a tie between UPS and PLU, my understanding is that a coin flip will take place to determine the #1 seed since they lost to the same 2 teams. If memory serves me, a coin was flipped a couple of years ago (maybe 3) to break a tie.

I doubt it will come down to this but it could. If a coin is tossed I would then make PLU the favorite based on momentum.

PP-

Yes, I said PLU "managed" to beat Linfield, ie managed to win without their point guard which is an accomplishment when you consider the first score between these schools when Mann was healthy.

Linfield "managed" just 11 field goals in 62 attempts (14 more than PLU) which isn't going to result in many wins.

The PLU player's name is Gibbons, not Gibbs.

Without Mann, PLU has to be the underdog in any game from here on out, especially on the road. This is why I say they are capable of losing four straight.

History means nothing. This is a new year and new players. The Whits have home court advantage, a good record at home this year, the guard play to capitalize on Mann's absence, and excellent coaching. That's why I think PLU is in danger of stumbling twice.

And I agree that while Arnall may be the league's most outstanding player, Carnahan is the front runner to win POY honors. She has been UPS' best player all season and leads the Loggers in both rebounding and assists from her PG position.

Just my opinion. No disresect intended.

And while I'm at it, I sure like the job the L & C coach has done with her team this year.

Reply to Swiss who says "So... essentially the NWC fans get to watch four teams battle for third and the opportunity to play in Tacoma"

> I still think PLU is capable of losing out. First, it doesn't sound like their PG will be back which really handicaps them. Second, I don't see how they can survive the Eastern swing this weekend given the home record of the Whits, and third, Fox will have revenge on their mind when they visit Tacoma next week. As for L & C, well..they already have pinned a loss on the Lutes.

PLU managed to beat Linfield but then the Wildcats are finished anyway and probably played without much desire.

I think PLU could be 10-4 after this weekend and just trying to hang on to third place which will probably result in a tie.

The Whits have to look at this weekend as an opportunity. The one who can upset UPS will have a decided advantage in the event of a tie down the road.

kibitzer---you can't change your mind on predictions---you said UPS wins two this week now you say the lose at GFU.  Which is it?

• I changed my mind after talking to some friends connected with the Fox program. I think they have worked out their internal issues and are ready to make a strong finish. 

Someone said PLU could lose out but now they are in the play-offs? 

• That was me. It was not a prediction, but rather a comment. I stand behind it given the health issues PLU is facing.

I would love to see tonight's game at Fox. I hope someone will have a report. It could be a wild one.

I predict the race will be closer after this weekend. Come Saturday night, UPS and PLU will both be 9-3 and George Fox and Lewis and Clark will both be 8-4. Here's why:

1. I know Fox is having their internal problems, but I think they will pull their act together enough to survive the UPS visit. They won't take them for granted and I don't think they will allow Kitty Keaton to go off on them again like they did in Tacoma;

2. Linfield always plays PLU tough. Their quickness and general style of helter skelter play always affects the Lutes' performance. With Mann injured and maybe even not playing this weekend, PLU simply will not be able to stand up to the pressure they will encounter. They do not have an adequate back-up PG;

3. Lewis & Clark doesn't have the best talent in the league but they have the top coach. That young gal gets more out of her talent than anyone in the NWC and I look for them to sweep the Whits this weekend to stay even with Fox.

This will make next week's Eastern swing huge for the two Tacoma schools at the top of the heep. The question is who will survive?

I'll answer this question next week.

It looks to me that the differnce in last night's game was rebounding. The Loggers pulled down 16 offensive rebounds (to PLU's 5) which adds up to a lot of second opportunities. The PLU post players had a combined 7 rebounds (all by Long) whereas the UPS guards had over 20. Either the rebounds were coming off long or someone was getting out hustled.

The Loggers are on a roll. PLU needs to respond quickly to avoid another crash and burn finish. They could conceivably lose out.

Momentum favors UPS.