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Messages - MSG77

#1
New York Region / Re: BB: Auburn NY Regional
May 18, 2008, 02:43:16 AM
Quote from: DGilblair on May 18, 2008, 12:36:26 AM
Great tournament in Auburn.  The field crew, the people working the stands, just all class people.  What a great place to play baseball.  Good luck to Cortland in Appleton.

DG, I hope you didn't drive all the way home from Auburn and jump right on here.  Good God, man, get some sleep! ;D

How did you enjoy the 2AM finish on Fri night, err... Sat morning?  That couldn't have been fun.  I'm sure the weather was nice and warm as well.

Too bad you guys couldn't hold the lead the 1st game.  If you'd gotten to Cortland in the winners bracket with Jags that could have been interesting.  Just too hard in these 7 or 8 team regionals to come out of the losers side.  You probably need 8 or 9 pitchers (kind of like Eastern had in 06) who can all get good hitters out.  Seemed like with Shawn hurt, Eastern only had 4 or 5 pitchers they trusted to go to in big situations.

Would have been better had Shawn been healthy (obviously  ::)).  Hopefully he rests up or does whatever he needs to come back healthy next year.  Pretty impressive hitting from him even when injured.  Should be a good squad again next year if everyone comes back.  Good luck with everything next season.
#2
Err...

Just to throw my $.02 in here.  I don't think that YagsUMB was trying to suggest that Conway was better than Gilblair in 06.  Just that some of the selections don't always seem to make sense.  And for the most part, I'd agree with that statement.

Its very hard to compare stats when teams don't play anywhere near the same schedules as other teams, even within a region.  So of course campaigning and politics comes into play for selections.  At the end of the day, does it really matter?  Are people losing sleep over not making 2nd team All-NE in DIII?  Its a nice honor and I'm sure it makes your mother proud, but is it really that meaningful?  I think there should be other things in life that are more important when you look back.

Anyway, all that aside, using Shawn Gilblair in 06 as an example is foolish anyway, because for the most part, he was an exception to the rule.  I don't think there have been many 1st team All-Americans who didn't make 1st team All-Conf or 1st team All-Region.  And that isn't to say he didn't deserve it, because he did.

Its just that he BECAME an All-American in May, mainly after most teams had already finished their seasons.  All-Conference teams are based on the regular season, and heavily rely on performance in conference games.  Well, Gilblair wasn't even pitching in conference games.  So why should he have made All-Conference?

At the end of the day on May 1st 06, Gilblair was a promising freshman who had pitched well against Suffolk and was 3-1.  He was on a team that was 8-4 in conference and 23-14 overall.  Honestly, I don't think there was too much buzz about anything to do with that Eastern team.  A few days later, he completely shut down #4 Wheaton, ending their 24 game win streak.   He commanded 3 pitches very well and Eastern won easily, 8-0.  That was probably when a bit of buzz really started.

Had Eastern not won 4 games in 27 hrs in Maine a few weeks later, it probably wouldn't have mattered.  Gilblair would have finished maybe 4-2 or 5-1 with a very good ERA.  It would have been a very good freshman year, but nothing really out of the ordinary and certainly not an All-American season.

All of this, of course, is a bit chicken-and-egg.  If Gilblair was not an All-American (especially when it counted in May), Eastern would not have won the LECT or the NY Regional.  But if Eastern didn't win the LECT and the NY Regional, Gilblair would not have been an All-American.  The two were dependent on each other.

Here are Gilblair's pitching stats from that Wheaton game on May 4th thru getting the win vs Cortland St in NY on 5/21

ERA   W-L App GS CG Sho/CBO Sv  IP    H    R   ER  BB  SO
1.54  5-0    5    4    2     0/1     0  35.0  26  8    6   5    35

He beat Wheaton (top 5), RIC, Keene St., St Lawrence, and Cortland St (top 5)

I can't be bothered going thru all the stats to see how he hit in May 06, but it was very well.  He certainly was helping with his bat as well.

Gilblair was fully deserving to be an All-American at the time those awards came out.  But to be honest, he wasn't exactly snubbed by not being named 1st team All-Conference, due to the criteria and timing of those awards.  It is a rather unique situation, one which I haven't heard or come across elsewhere.
#3
Quote from: wordsmith on May 16, 2008, 06:26:33 PM
TEEalum,

Thanks for the correction, the LEC site lists him as a Senior, the TEE site has him as a Junior. The rest of the LEC wishes he were a Senior.

Word

From my understanding (on pretty good authority), this is Jags last year.

School wise, he is a graduating senior.  He was on medical redshirt his freshman year, so eligibility wise he is a junior.

But last I heard, his plans were not to go to grad school.  So although he has a year of eligibility left, he won't be enrolled in school so he won't be playing.

I guess that's always subject to change, but that was the last I heard.
#4
Quote from: wordsmith on May 06, 2007, 02:58:46 PM
Quote from: JOUL on May 06, 2007, 02:34:45 PM
After the sweep yesterday...does anyone think that Keene could still possibly get a pool c bid if they lose in the championship of the LEC tourny?

Nope Southern Maine will get one though. >:(  Just kidding, fans of KSC will get a laugh out of that one after last year's hosing.

I laughed.  But then I did a little research.

USM took 2 of 3 from KSU last year and had fewer "bad" losses.  Although with 31 wins KSU was almost certainly one of the "last teams out".

I can't be bothered doing the QOWI for KSU, but if I was hoping to get an at-large I'd already have done it.  In another thread someone (I think it was Pat) posted that anything over 9.7 is "in contention" and over 10 is strong.  I just took a quick look at their sched and they don't have too many bad losses this year.

The losses to ECSU shouldn't hurt them too much. For example, if their QOWI was 10 before Sat, it would now be 9.78.  If it was right at 9.7 before Sat, it would be 9.50 now.  So those two losses shouldn't kill their chances.  If they go 3-2 or even 4-2 in the tourneyand finish second and ECSU wins it, they would be 28 or 29-13.  USM was 29-15 last year after the LE tourney.

Assuming that the NY regional is 7 teams again (which it might not be since there is talk of the West being 7 this year), there is no reason that I see that NE couldn't get 2 Pool C teams (with 2 NE teams being sent to NY like last year).  There don't look to be many at-large teams in contention from NY.
#5
Quote from: kscer on May 05, 2007, 08:27:00 PM
Quote from: ECSUalum on May 05, 2007, 05:40:42 PM
Eastern takes game 2 by score of 3-2

First time 14-0 on LEC conference

That's a tremendous accomplishment. In my four years of watching, I think this is the best Eastern team I have seen. Any weakness in the infield is made up for in the outfield. They hit well, and pitching is better than adequate.

Taking nothing away from this team and its accomplishments I have to ask -

Did you not see much of the 04 team?  Or has your memory blocked that team out because it was such a traumatic event? Haha.  Just as a refresher -

ECSU 14, KSU 0
ECSU 13, KSU 5
ECSU 19, KSU 2 (Tourney)

That 14-0 game was the most dominating pitching performance I have seen in college.

Ryan DiPietro had a no hitter thru 8 1/3 and finished with a 1 hitter (a bloop into short right) and 19 K.  He was almost untouchable that day.
#6
I think it will be Gilblair vs Stromgren in Game 1.

I think it's a different strategy if Keene didn't have to sweep both games.  Can't worry about game 2 until you win game 1.

If I were ECSU, I would throw Gilblair in game 1.  I would asy it is about 95% they will.  Then if they win, they will likley throw #6 and some bullpen guys.  I wouldn't want to wait around for game 2 if you can clinch with game 1.  You don't want to get the other teams bats going to start the day and waiting around for game 2 is just asking for trouble I think.

Again, if I'm KSU, I throw Stromgren in game 1 if Gilblair is pitching.  I think if you win, you have a huge advantage in momentum, regardless of who your game 2 starter is.  I've seen it happen a lot, where if a team's ace shuts down the other team and beats their ace, the team that lost is demoralized and has a bit of a hangover to start the second game.  IMO this is the best chance that KSU has for a sweep.  You would figure that Gilblair is not going to give up a tons of runs, so you would need to hold Eastern down to win.  From what some have posted here, that might not happen with Keenes #2 or #3.

It is a huge advantage to finish #1 as has been said, the drop-off from #5 to #6 is pretty significant and the #1 seed gets to host which is also an advantage.
#7
Quote from: 363dp on May 03, 2007, 07:59:48 AM
I am not sure this is what some may think.  This is not the UMaine team that goes to the World Series.  This UMaine team is the one that trailed Colby College last week in the 7 inning! The USM team is the same team that a Bowdoin frosh heald to one run the day before.

Hence my comment on the mighty falling.  Wasn't using it to say USM is great.  They are a 23-11 D3 team.  I was alluding to your point that UMaine is not what they once were.  I don't think anyone here is confused and saying USM is a great team.  Barring winning the LEC tourney, they will be home for the 5th time in 6 years come NCAA time.
#8
Quote from: Capt. Partridge on May 03, 2007, 09:55:48 AM
Quote from: MSG77 on May 03, 2007, 02:26:09 AM

But in terms of DII baseball, NE, NY and NJ have produed a large number of DII National Champions. 

I'm not sure if you meant DIII, I don't see any schools from those states on the list of past DII champions:

http://www.ncaasports.com/baseball/mens/history/divii


Oops!  Yeah, I meant DIII.  Should have just used 3 rather than III.  I actually did it III(  ;D ) times in that post.  Nowhere in there did I mean to refer to D2.

Check the time - I guess thats what I get for being on obscure message boards at 2 AM  ::)
#9
Quote from: frank uible on May 03, 2007, 02:07:28 AM
My objective was to learn more about college baseball - about which I don't know a great deal but have certain impressions.

Fair enough.  Couldn't really get the "tone" of your posts from just reading.  Seeing as you have a ton of posts, it came off as trolling from another region.  If your previous posts have been about basketball and football then that would explain it.

The simple answer is "No".  I would not say there are any definite major leagers in DIII in NE this year.  I would also say there are rarely ever any definite major leagers in DI in NE this year or any year.  The same would be true for DII schools all over the country.  Most major leagers are either signed as free agents (from Latin America or the Far East), drafted out of high school, or played DI baseball in conferences that have many scholarships for baseball.  There are always exceptions, but the majority would likely be from one of  those 3 backrounds.  The northeast is not known for producing major leagers out of its college ranks.

But in terms of DII baseball, NE, NY and NJ have produed a large number of DII National Champions. 
#10
Quote from: frank uible on May 03, 2007, 01:08:36 AM
Of the 300+ pitchers in MLB at any given time how many are New England DIIIers with top velocity in the 80s? My uninformed and unsophisticated guess is zero.  My further guess is that at least 85% of major league pitchers have at least 90 top velocity, and the remainder are "freaks" with unusual qualities, whose backgrounds do not include New England DIII baseball, New England not being a hot bed of college baseball at any level. Any New England DIIIers with top velocity less than 90, who might sign pro contracts, will end up merely filling out rosters in short season Class A and most probably no better.

I don't think I would argue with you.  The Northeast in general is not a hotbed for baseball in general.  I would argue that they may get farther than short season A, but not many players make the majors period without being freaks.  Its the best of the best in the world.  The fact that the south is much more conducive to playing baseball year round no doubts helps in development.  If your question is "Are there any surefire major leaguers in DIII in the Northeast this year?" My answer would be no. But seeing as you obviously are on these boards quite a bit, I would ask you - "How many surefire major leagers come out of DII every year?  Do you follow DIII baseball to look for potential major leagers?"  Because if you do, you must be dissapointed on a regular basis.  There aren't that many players out there in DIII with major league ability.  If they do have the ability, they probably lack major league consistency, which is really the key to baseball.  If you can consistently throw 3 pitches at different speeds for strikes, you sould be given the opportunity to do so until it is proven that you are "batting practice".  Keith Foulke threw a mid 80s fastball and a low 70s changeup for strikes.  Its not the velocity, its the command and change of speed.  Is he an exception, for sure, but they do exist.  You don't have to throw 90s to get people out, but it does help.

I'm just wondering what your point was, because maybe I am missing it.
#11
Quote from: hockeyfan77 on May 03, 2007, 12:07:17 AM
Final from tonight: USM 13 U-Maine 7...

Oh how the mighty have fallen.

I guess "on any given day", but I didn't think USM was that strong this year.  To put up 13 on a DI pitching staff is impressive (and a bit surprising).  Any links to the box score (I'm too lazy to look it up), did Maine throw the last guys in the BP or was it legit?
#12
You guys beat me on Tim Kiely - definitely should be on the list.  Didn't realize he was hurt that badly.  He pitched in the NECBL in 05 as well.  Hard thrower with a really good hard slider.  The Tufts team that he was perfect against for 7 inn wasn't a bad team either.  His nos for the year -

4-0, 1.61, 1 Sv. 28.0 IP, 25K/6BB, .89 WHIP - Pretty good

Haven't seen that many games this year vs past years so I can't comment on too many kids.

In terms of straight velocity, I know Jason LaVorgna (ECSU) throws hard.  I had heard that in AZ early in the year he was clocked at 93.  In the past, he had somewhat of a flat fastball and sometimes had trouble getting offspeed stuff over.  Teams would just sit on the fastball and if he left it up it would get hit.  But he has good numbers this year and also pitched in the NECBL last summer.  Maybe he got some good advice there and is improved.  Here are his numbers for this year and for last summer

07 ECSU - 3-0, 1.05, 4 Sv. 25.2 IP, 33K/7BB, 1.09 WHIP
06 NECBL - 3-1, 1.75, 1 Sv. 25.2 IP, 32K/14BB, 1.17 WHIP

Those are really good numbers and his walks seem to be down this year.  Over a K/inn as well.

I would agree as well about "pitchability".  Its not just about throwing hard.  A great example is someone like Joe Serfass.  His fastball was about mid-80s but it had movement and he could really spot it.  Also had a great slider, not hard, maybe around 80, but with late break.  Watching him pitch he never overpowered people, but he didn't walk anyone, he got ahead in the count, and batters would just beat his sinker or slider into the ground.  At one point he pitched almost 50 straight scoreless innings.  Last year he was in high A and had an ERA under 2.  So its not all about arm strength.

IMO that is why Gilblair gets overlooked sometimes.  He is far from an impossing pressence on the mound (I don't think he is over 6') but he mixes pitches and throws strikes.  Has a decent fastball that he spots, a good breaking pitch, and a very good changeup (which last year when on was his best pitch).  As only a sophmore he has a way to go before thinking about getting drafted, but if he continues to pitch the way he has it is always a possibility.  Teams can always use lefties with 3 pitches.


#13
Quote from: Catch08 on May 01, 2007, 09:55:57 PM
WNEC is leaving because they want to get into a conf. that has football no GNAC school has a football team. The GNAC is picking up 3 teams to negate the departure of WNEC. St Joes of Maine Mt Ida and LaSalle are coming into the league. There are also more then 8 schools but the other ones are all girl schools. So we lose WNEC but bring in a very good St Joe team

Ahh... I should have guessed.  Seems 9 times out of 10 if you ask any question about conference alignment, the answer always somehow involves football.  I guess even in NE, where college football's impact is minimal at best, it still factors into the equation.

I didn't realize the GNAC had more teams that were girls schools.  With just a quick look, it seemed that most of the GNAC schools were along either I-91 or I-90, which made it fairly convenient travelwise from Springfield.  I know the 2 schools in the CCC in RI are right on Narragansett Bay (Salve is in Newport and RWU is in Bristol).  They aren't easy to get to, even if you live in RI.  I thought a lot of the teams in the CCC were also very small schools in hard to reach locations.

Thanks for the info though.
#14
Why?  I would think the CCC is weaker than the GNAC.  Also, aren't GNAC schools closer than the CCC schools, which are all along the coast, no?  Doesn't the CCC already have 13 schools?  While the GNAC is only 8?

I don't get it.  Anyone explain?
#15
Just looked at it again and with double headers you could have

Semifinals
Monday - Games 1 and 2 (or alternately Sat)
Tuesday- Game 3 (or alternately Sun)

Finals
Saturday - Games 1 and 2 (or alternately Thur)
Sunday - Game 3 (or alternately Fri)

That would let you have 1, 2, and 3 all on 4 days rest.  It would mean you would likely have to have a pretty deep bullpen though with 3 games in 2 days.  Also, not sure if you could get everyone to have Mon and Tuesday off around finals.  Also, if you finished the reg season on the preceding Sat, it is only 1 day rest til the playoffs so you might not be able to use your pitchers in the semis and it leaves only Sun (the day before the playoffs) as a rain makeup day.  I'm just not sure you can play 2 best of 3s in a week between the end of the reg season and the regionals.  Weather in NE will not allow an already condensed reg season to have 2 weeks for a conf playoff.