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Messages - Lance Harbor

#1
First off -- Congrats to the Dutch on another fine season

Second -- Wartburg may not be out of this thing just yet.  I posted on my website a breakdown of Pool C:

http://bigredlance.blogspot.com/2007/11/2007-d3-football-pool-c-playoff.html

I'm curious to see how it all shakes out...I think a few of the teams I mentioned are out of Pool C contention.
#2
General football / Re: Pool C -- 2007
November 07, 2007, 07:54:43 PM
It's an annual tradition for me.  I put together my 2007 Pool C Breakdown --

http://bigredlance.blogspot.com/2007/11/2007-d3-football-pool-c-playoff.html

I'm sure I've left someone important off the list, but this is pretty good considering I don't understand all the intricate ins-and-outs of every conference's tie-breaker system.
#3
Hey all, it's been a while since I checked in.  First off, congrats to Central on a great game today.

Second, props to my Knights for putting something together in the 4th quarter to win a gutsy game at Loras.

If you're Wartburg, the one huge positive you have to take away from this game is that the defense is playing awesome.  Even if the O is struggling, you can still win ballgame with D.  I'll take defense over offense any day.

I thought before the season started that this would be a unit that might give up less than 100 points in the regular season.  It's definitely a possibility.
#4
Hey all, long time since I've been around, so I thought I'd throw my hat in for the 2007 season.

Wartburg got a mention in today's USA today.  Got me fired up for football season.

Go Knights!!
#5
Walston - Grant will probably be headed to Drake.  Central really wants him, too.
#6
Walston - No, the check was not lost in the mail.  I did, in fact, make a size-able donation to the Wartburg fund, and the kind folks at the controllers office cashed it...

Unfortunately, my $100,000+ donation was diverted towards some obscure fund called "tuition."   :D 
#7
I just got back from Salem...

Good to see all the U-Dub-Dub fans at the game.  Congrats to the Warhawks on a great season, and wishing Coach B the best.
#8
Hey all,

I'm going to be in Salem, VA on Saturday to watch the Stagg Bowl.  I'm going to be sporting my "Go Knights" shirt (courtesy of Walston and his former roommates) at the D3 Tailgate.

Look for the only orange-shirted person in the stands on TV.

Take care, and everyone have a Merry Christmas.

--Lance
#9
I'm a D3 alum (Wartburg College '03) who recently moved to the Central Virginia area, and I'm dropping EVERYTHING to be in Salem on Saturday...even though I've never seen either of the teams play in person.

This is something I've been looking forward to since I found out I'd be moving here back in March.  I wouldn't miss it for the world.

Look for me on ESPN.

No way should the game be moved.  That would be just my luck, they move away just as I get here.  ???
#10
UDub fans may talk all the smack they want.  They'vve definitely earned it.
#11
Well, crap.

To be honest, none of the other games we needed to have come through worked for us, so we were probably going to be left out of the playoffs, anyway.

St. John's losing, WTF.  I'm not surprised.

Congrats to Dubuque for having a winning season.  Way to go Spartans.
#12
Best of luck to the Knights this weekend.  I'll say the same thing I said when we were going for a Pool C slot four years ago: Just take care of business.  Play hard, and good things will happen.

To be sure, we are on the bubble, and it looks like we're going to need some outside help to make things more secure.

Here's a weekend CHEAT SHEET for Wartburg fans (Root for the team listed FIRST to win):

Must Win (Obviously)

Wartburg (8-1) vs. Dubuque (5-4)

Very Helpful (Keeps teams out of the picture altogether)

- Illinois Wesleyan (3-6) vs. Wheaton (8-1)
- Rochester (7-2) vs. Hobart (7-1)
- Alfred (7-2) vs. St. John's Fisher (8-1)
- St. John's (9-0) vs. Bethel (8-1)
- McMurry (3-6) vs. Hardin-Simmons (7-1)
- Curry (10-0) vs. Coast Guard (8-1)
- Baldwin-Wallace (7-2) vs. Capital (8-1)
- Hanover (4-5) vs. Franklin (8-1)
- Ithaca (7-2) vs. Cortland St. (8-1)
- UW-Oshkosh (5-4) vs. UW-La Crosse (7-1)

Also Very Helpful (Pushes teams out of the Pool C picture)

- Millikin (3-6) vs. Augustana (6-3)
- Norwich (2-7) vs. Springfield (8-1)
- William Patterson (1-8) vs. Rowan (6-3)

Slightly Helpful (Hurts other teams' Quality Wins rating, or helps ours)

- Tri-State (2-7) vs. Albion (4-5)
- North Central (7-2) vs. Carthage (6-3)
- Union (7-1) vs. RPI (6-3)
- Worcester Polytech (3-5) vs. St. Lawrence (4-4)
- Grove City (2-7) vs. Merchant Marine (3-6)
- Wilkes (9-0) vs. King's (6-3)
- SUNY-Maritime (1-5) vs. Mt. Ida (4-4)
- UW-Whitewater (9-0) vs. UW-River Falls (3-6)
- Minnesota-Morris (7-2) vs. Concordia-Moorhead (3-6)
- Augsburg (0-9) vs. Hamline (3-6)
- St. Olaf (7-2) vs. St. Thomas (6-3)
- Lewis & Clark (0-8) vs. Linfield (5-3)
- Mary Hardin-Baylor (7-2) vs. Howard Payne (5-4)
- UW-Stout (3-6) vs. UW-Stevens Point (5-4)
- Ohio Northern (5-4) vs. Wilmington (3-6)
- Mt. Union (9-0) vs.  Marietta (6-3)
- Coe (6-3) vs. Cornell (2-7)
- Simpson (3-6) vs. Central (9-0)
- Brockport St. (3-6) vs. Buffalo St. (3-6)
- UW-Stout (3-6) vs. UW-Stevens Point (5-4)
- UW-Eau Claire (2-7) vs. UW-Platteville (5-4)

For what it's worth, I'll re-post a link to the breakdown on my website:
http://bigredlance.blogspot.com/2006/11/2006-d3-football-playoffs-pool-c.html

So there you have it.  Remember that in 2002, it took a team in Maryland (Johns Hopkins) knocking off a team in Pennsylvannia (Muhlenberg)  in order for Wartburg to secure the final playoff spot.  Like I said, just play hard, and good things will happen. 
#13
All Right, I figured I'd chime in to say that I'm pissed off about Linfield's playoff prospects.  The Cats are so much better than either Carnegie Mellon or Washington & Jefferson it isn't even funny.  I think it's a crock that the committee has such stringent rules.

I'm sure this has all been discussed on the board like 17 pages ago, but I figured I'd post my Pool B breakdown on my website.  (I mistakenly thought that the NWC was a Pool A/C conference earlier).

http://bigredlance.blogspot.com/2006/11/2006-pool-b-breakdown-d3-football.html

Everyone knows about the whole Wash & Jeff vs. Bethany game, which Linfield needs to happen.  But also, hope that Willamette beats Pac Lutheran and that Salisbury beats Frostburg State.  That will bump Linfield's QW rating up and W&J's down enough that the Cats will officially have a better rating.

Those are key games.

The other team I want you to keep an eye on is Carnegie Mellon @ Thiel.  CMU is a crappy team.  They play in a crappy conference, and they have one of the easiest non-conference schedules in the country.  It includes:
-Hiram (0-9) - Worst team in the North Central Conference
-Grove City (2-7) - Worst team in the President's Conference
-Westminster PA (2-7) - Second-worst team in the President's Conference
-Franklin & Marshall (3-6) - Second-worst team in the Centennial Conference
-Colorado College (4-5) - Independent whipping post

Wow!! What a daring non-conference schedule!!   :P And to top it off, they really didn't beat any of those teams by a whole lot.

Carn. Mellon's QW rating is already pretty low considering they're undefeated.  Throw in a potential loss to Thiel, and they'll automatically be lower than Linfield in the QW standings.

The Bottom Line: If Carnegie Mellon or W&J swapped schedules with Linfield, the Cats would be undeafeated, and the other teams would be a whole lot worse than 5-3.

So, that's my rant.  It is what it is.  Just play hard, and good things will happen. 
I would absolutely LOVE to see Carnegie Mellon lose and have the decision come down to them and Linfield.  I'd take the Cats any day, week or month of the year.
#14
Coco-Probably not, although isn't the Northwest Conference Pool A/C now?
#15
A few thoughts:

-First off, congrats to everyone on a great season.  Good or bad, I think that every team can come away with at least one "signature game."
-The Wartburg vs. UD game has LAND MINE written all over it.  Wartburg has won a lot of ugly, low-scoring games. Props to Dubuque for totally turning a corner and winning some great games.  I'm sure they'd love to get their sixth win and make it their first winning season in quite a while.  I still think the Knights will win, but any Wartburg fan who wants to overlook UD and book their hotel rooms for the playoffs is nuts.
-With that in mind, it's going to be very tight race for a Pool C playoff spot.  Wartburg's quality wins rating was much lower than I expected.  We may need some outside help (just as we did in 2002).

Play hard, and hope for good things to happen.

"Rule #76: No Excuses. Play like a champ."