Actually, it probablly doesn't make any difference who wins Saturday, since the game that will really count will be in the second round of nationals. This season is a little like 2 years ago, GFU wins the two conference games and the playoff championship, only to loose to PS in the second round of nationals. I'm kind of hoping for history to repeat its self.

They will fall in this order:
Hope, HPU and Thomas-Moore, since that's the order UPS will meet them. Of course, that assumes no one else knocks them off first.

I would love to see a rematch as well, since that would mean UPS would have gotten by LaVern, GFU/Chapman, and probably Hope. I don't doubt that HPU is a great team. I also know there are other gret teams out there. UPS has lost no games by more than 9 points. Two of those losses were to DII teams, one of which is undefeated and currently ranked #2. One loss to a ranked team (GFU) they have since beat twice by double digits, and a last second loss to Whitman. Look past teams outside the ASC at your own risk.

I find it interesting that folks are already worrying about a Hope / HPU match up in the Elite 8. I might remind everyone that UPS gave HPU a rude awakening last year, and they have a stronger team this year than last. HPU probably will make it to sectionals, but don't be suprised to find a re-match with UPS. There's an awful lot of basketball still to be played!

Logshow,

Interesting thing, the NWC clarified their tie breaker rule yesterday, and you were right, UPS now holds the 2nd tie breaker by virtue of beating LC (the third ranked team) twice. All the loggers need to do is to win tonight, and they will get the number 1 seed, to play the winner of GFU and LC this Friday.

GFU looked strong last night, but UPS did manage to win, even though it wasn't exactly a "pretty" win. Good luck tonight, and next week Loggers!

Logshow,
I learned a long time ago, I'm not sure about anything. Here's what I've based my opinion on:
From the NWC web site, the following are the tie breaking critreia:
6.1.2 In case of a tie in the regular-season Conference standing affecting
post-season advancement, ties shall be broken by:
1. Head-to-Head competition in conference games only
2. Results against above teams in rank order in conference games only
3. Best conference road record
4. Sempert System in conference game
5. Record versus non-conference common opponents at a common site
6. Pre-arranged draw by Athletic Directors at the fall meeting
(Adopted January 2008)
Tie breaking procedure to be used to break all ties including ties for 1st place.
(Adopted January 2005)

1. Head-to-Head is a wash, both GFU and UPS losing in the other's gym.
2. The key word on this one is "above". Since there are no teams above these two in the conference, this one is a wash. If this is to mean that you compare all the way down the list, then I would think GFU would get the tie breaker, since it would make no sence to reward a team for losing to a lower ranked team, or penilize a team for losing to a higher ranked team. This one maybe subject to some interpretation.
3. As of now, both teams have identical conference road records, and since they both play at home this weekend, so no change is possible.
4. Sempert system - This system awards more points for wins and losses on the road, and also for 50% and above win % teams vs. below 50% teams. At this time, it's a wash, but this could come into play if UPS were to lose to Willamette, since they are below50%. If this happened, GFU would win the tie breaker.
5. GFU and UPS had no common non-conference opponents, that played at a common site.
6. And we're down to the ugly one. The numbers were drawn last fall, but nobody I knows is saying who has what number.

Kind of wordy, but I think that's the breakdown in the NWC.  Unless one of these teams melts down in the next week, I think they'll both get invited to the NCAA tournament. An interesting possible development, what if LC were to win the NWC tournament? NWC could potentially send 3 teams!

Things are just a little bit more clear in the NWC tournament picture. LC will be the third place team, since Whitworth and Whitman can't match their record with only one game left to play. Assuming LC wins both their games this weekend, and UPS and GFU were to loose both games, there would be a 3 way tie for first place, but LC would loose the 3rd tie breaker to both UPS and GFU (Best conference road record), since they would have lost 3 road games to 2 each for GFU and UPS. so, 3rd place is settled, but where will they play on Wednesday?

If either GFU or UPS looses a game, and the other does not, the looser obviously gets the second seed. If both win, or loose equal number of games, I beilieve it still goes to the draw the ADs did last fall. We'll see what happens.

I absolutely agree - there are no sure things in the NWC. Both GFU and UPS play LC, Whitworth and Whitman over the next two weekends, and they will not be easy games. In addition, GFU needs to get by Pacific and UPS needs to take on Willamette. 

Having said that, both GFU and UPS are playing strong, and would be the odds-on pick for any of these games.  IF they win out, then the decision as to who is the number one seed to the tournament would come down to what number the AD picked last fall. I don't know who has what number, and I'm guessing no one will say until after the last game is played next weekend, (probably as it should be). The impact would be the need for the second seed to play the 3rd seed, (currently LC, but both Whitman and Whitworth have a shot, especially if they can knock off either UPS or GFU), and would loose home court advantage to the number 1 seed. That could be a big factor, based on some of the home cooking I've seen @ GFU over the years.

Lots of excitement in the NWC for the next few weeks!

The following is from the NWC rules:
6.1.2 In case of a tie in the regular season Conference standing affecting
post-season advancement, tie shall be broken by:
1. Head to Head competition in conference games only
2. Results against all teams above those tied in conference games
only
3. Results against above teams in rank order in conference games
only
4. Order of losses beginning with the 9th seed and moving up to
the tied teams
5. Best conference road record
6. Sempert System in conference games
7. record versus non-conference common opponents at a common
site
8. Pre-arranged draw by Athletic Directors at the fall meeting

The Sempert System is only for conference ganes, which would be a wash for GFU and UPS if both teams win out. Do you know what the results of the drawing of lots was last fall?

Regarding the tie breakers between GFU and UPS, in the case that both teams win out through the conference play, (no small feat in the NWC) - Unfortunately, as I read the 8 tie breakers, they would remain tied through Number 7. Number 8 involves a drawing of lots that occured last fall. I don't know who has what number. The tie breakers can be found on the NWC website under governanace of winter sports.

On the bright side, if they both win out, I'd be suprized if they both did not go to the NCAA tournament, regardless of the outcome of the NWC post season play-off.

Loggers upset the Buins last night. It was a very exciting game, and really wasn't in the bag until about 3 minutes left in the game. GFU played well inside, but had a hard time taking care of the ball. UPS forced 23 turnovers to 5 for GFU. That was huge. We'll probably get to see these team play two more times this year, just like last year. What matters is who wins the last game. I would not be suprized if both teams win out the balance of conference play, and if this happens, I believe the seeding into the NWC playoff would be decided by drawing lots.

The competion for the important 3rd place is certainly heating up. I'm not sure I'd be willing to guess on that right now. 

Hey, where is everybody? Scrimmages are about to start!

Looks like the NWC has two teams ranked in on national poll, and almost two in another. (UPS and George Fox)

George Fox was picke by the NWC coaches poll to be #1. That's been the kiss of death for the past few seasons, sure glad the Loggers were picked #2, (barely). Looking at the George Fox roster, they're only bringing in one freshman this year. UPS roster hasn't been posted yet, but my spies tell me they'll have two freshmen and a few transfers.

I'm looking forward to another great season!

Yes, but offensive or defensive? Makes a difference on how well the defense is played.

I wouldn't count on a huge free throw advantage for HPU. While HPU is fairly low on fouls commited per game (13.7), UPS is not too far behind them (14.9). I doubt 1 or 2 additional trips to the line will be a deciding difference in the game, (or maybe it will!) Both teams tend to get more foul shots than they give up.

Again, I anticipate a very close game. While UPS has more losses than HPU, 3 of the six losses were to the same team, and they have never lost by more than 8 points this season. The NWC is a very strong conference, there are really only 2 of the 9 teams that would be considered "weak".

The more I look at the statistics, the more I'm convinced that the UPS/HPU game will be a toss-up. The teams appear to be almost a wash at every level. The size of the players is comperable, they both have similar depth, and neither team really has one "go to" player. Looking at the games involving their one and only common opponent, HPU had an average of 32% on FG, compared with 38% for UPS, HPU averaged 38 rebounds compaired to 44 for UPS. Just not really a significant differance.
Looks like it will be a great game, and whoever wants it the most will win. I'm looking forward to seeing it. There will be a small, but vocal UPS fan roup there, I'm guessing HPU fans will outnumber us.

I only wish it didn't take all day to get their. Good luck to both teams.