that is the second time the Astro's drafted chrismon.  They drafted him in the 32nd round out of HS.  I always say it only takes one team to like you, guess now we can say it only takes one team to like you Twice.  It will be interesting to watch how he progresses thru the minors.

I know I only took 4 courses in the Spring.  But I did take the 5 year college path.  2 at a JUCO and 3 at NCWC. 

We played a total of 51 games at NCWC in 98 & 99.  In 98 we had played 45 going into regionals.  I would have loved to have played more games myself. 

Narch,
Buddy Hernandez was in the same situation in the Braves organization.  He spent at least 3 years at AAA and never got up to big club.  He had some really good stats but after 2007 and a 3.13 ERA that year he was out of baseball.  If you would have looked at his A and AA stats and 1st two years of AAA you would of thought he was on the fast track to the bigs.   

Spence, never saw Webster he was out of my area and I never got to see him.  But he has a man's FB and was a part of that big trade with Dodgers and Sox.  Sox probably have something with him their.  I heard the Dodgers scout was the one to convince him to be a pitcher and stop playing SS even though he was a slick fielding SS. 

Quote from: Spence on April 21, 2013, 01:37:29 AM
Marietta's Mark Williams just got promoted to AA. Another one that scouts missed...signed out of the Frontier League.

OK I get it we are all Idiots.  Please cover my area for me so I can look good. 

Boys of Summer, I did not see Kirks so I am not sure about his prospects. 

Quote from: Spence on April 19, 2013, 11:39:49 AM

Quote from: Catfishncwc on April 19, 2013, 11:29:13 AM
Spence,
With your vast knowledge of Scouting why are you not a Scouting Director.  You seem to have this thing all figured out and the 450+ Full Time scouts currently just can seem to get it right like you.  You would be a real asset to a team.

As cheap as they are, it's surprising that teams don't have more scouts.

Scouts are not cheap.  Besides the Salary they receive and % of signing bonus.  The team pays for the Scouts car, gas, food, lodging and many other expenses.  It really adds up.  That is why mostly all teams have a Associate Scouting(Like myself) program.  They only pay a Associate when someone they discover is later drafted or signed by the team.  But for a Full Time Scout Supervisor expenses add up really quickly so the notion that scouts are cheap is wrong. 

Quote from: Boysofsummer21 on April 19, 2013, 11:49:27 AM
Catfish - Thanks for all the great info. For my uninformed point of view I find it very interesting.

So with this string going on would you say;
Chrismon (CNU P) - shot at draft
Fleischmann (CNU P Closer) - any shot at Indy?
Swatrout (NCW P) - any shout at Indy?
Welker (Ferrum C) - any shot at indy?
Alexander (NCW Inf) - any shot at Indy?

And how about Kirks at Averett? any thoughts? Figure Chrismon will go next year and then Taylor may be closer.

Thoughts?

I think Chrismon has a shot, but I don't think it is going to happen this year, but it only takes one team to like you to draft you.  People also mention that him being drafted in HS helps but showing lesser stuff and a couple less MPH's on the fastball hurts because it shows a regression.  If he comes back next year and gets himself in top condition and gains back those MPH's on the fastball he had lost from HS I think he will be a real prospect. 
The other players all have real shots at Indy ball, but Indy ball is about your name and talent out to those leagues and teams.  They have many tryouts and I would suggest they go to as many open Indy League tryouts as they can.  They have the talent it is just letting them see that talent. 

Spence,
With your vast knowledge of Scouting why are you not a Scouting Director.  You seem to have this thing all figured out and the 450+ Full Time scouts currently just can seem to get it right like you.  You would be a real asset to a team.   

Quote from: Spence on April 18, 2013, 09:13:46 PM
Did you see Verlander when he was in high school or college?

He seems like a good example of a guy that did make a big improvement the likes of which you say is, well I'll be kind and say unlikely. He gained 5 mph by switching lifting regimens while in college.

Undrafted as a high school senior to #2 pick as a college junior. Could have got him for cheap out of high school but no one noticed him. It's not like he was mediocre in high school.

Lets not forget that Verlander was not healthy his senior year in HS because of some illness (can't remember what it was) and barely had any strength his senior year to garner a real FB.  He then gets to ODU and gains more and more MPH's by getting back that strength he had lost before. 

Each year the draft is a funny thing.  Once you get outside the 1st 10 rounds lots of funny things happen.  Kids getting drafted higher than I had them rated and kids not getting drafted at all who I had pegged for rounds 20-30.   The MLB draft is nothing like the NFL or NBA those kids drafted go straight to the big club.  Once a player is drafted by a MLB club you have Rookie Ball,Short Season A, Low Level A, High A, Double A and Triple A.  That is a lot of development time and many injuries that can prevent players making it all the way. 
The 1st player I scouted was Justin Verlander and I remember writing in my Notebook at the end ""Either going to be a Hall of Famer or a bust" Their were games he could locate his  FB or Curve or both at the same time.  But if you look at him now he has great location and command and is the best pitcher in the majors today. 
Again being a former D3 and small school Juco player myself I go out of my way to see as many D3 games as I can, but I can't make players better than they are.  If I send a report to my Scout Supervisor to see someone I gotta make sure it is worth his time.  You have a 100 or so days in the Spring to see players and every game counts so yes players may go unseen, but it is not like you hear stories about players with 3rd round talent going undrafted because no one was able to go out and see them.  Players going undrafted are what we call fringe prospects and some of these fall between the cracks since it takes about 2-3 scouts to see a player before they are drafted. 

Quote from: LTHSdad on April 18, 2013, 09:05:09 AM
How about the following guys...any thoughts?

OF/P - Andrew Kirks (Averett, Junior) - 6'1, 190 LBS (.364, 1 HR, 24 RBI, 22 XBH, .526 SLUG%, 2.25 ERA, 10 GS, 2 CG, 72 INN, .228 BAVG)
P - Austin Chrismon (CNU, Junior) - 6'3, 230 LBS (11 GS, 1.74 ERA, 3 CG, 78 INN, 86 K, .216 BAVG)
P - Matt Verdillo (CNU, Senior) - 6'0, 190 LBS (20 G, 24.2 INN, 36 K, .267 BAVG)
OF - Justin Weaver (CNU, Junior) - 6'2, 195 LBS (.393, 2 HR, 46 RBI, 36 R, 22 XBH, 11 SB, .513 OBP, .600 SLUG%)
OF - Brandon Thigpen (Methodist, Senior) - 6'2, 200 LBS (6 HR, 20 XBH, 21 BB, .500 SLUG%)

Chrismon is probably the only one on the list to be a draftable prospect.  I like Weaver but OF's like him grow on trees and he does not have that one tool that really shows.  Maybe next year as a undrafted signee or Indy Ball.  The others are all good college players but I think Indy ball would be the future for them at the next level. 

QuoteThat 6-4 guy that throws 92 may never see a day in the "higher levels" because he can't throw the ball over the plate.

The best major league pitcher of my lifetime barely touched 90 after his first couple of seasons, and was getting guys out throwing mid 80s fastballs at age 40+. He was only 6 feet tall.

I would think late in the draft teams would want players that can be productive at some level.

Any of those 3 pitchers ever make it?

Spence,
Again the Draft is not placing nice ball players in the low levels to fill roster spots for your Rookie Ball and Low Level A team.  It is the hope of that player with a Tool Set to develop that tool set to help the big club. 
Also that pitcher who was throwing mid 80's in his 40+ age lets not forget Maddux could ramp it up to 94 in his younger days.  But Maddux was a once in a generation pitcher and when comparing D3 fringe prospects to one of  the greatest of our generation that kinda puts your argument a little off base.   
Hundreds of players are drafted each who never develop, that is why their are 40 rounds and at least 5 levels of minor league teams for each MLB organization .  It is to develop.  You can't make someone throwing 86 mph at the age of 22 throw 94 at the age of 25.  But if you get that kid throwing 92 to control his FB and develop a off-speed out pitch you have something their. 
I played with and against plenty of players in the USA South/Dixie who when I was playing I thought were pro prospects and could not understand why they were not signed and drafted.  But after becoming a scout and seeing all the talent at D1, D2, D3, Juco and HS level it really shrinks what you think is a pro prospect and not. 
So again plenty of D3 players could play at the lower levels of pro ball but filling roster spots is not the point, it is developing talent and tools to help the big club. 

Quote from: Spence on April 17, 2013, 02:33:15 PM
I still think teams miss a lot of guys because they're always chasing "projectability" and end up with busts. Sure they didn't lose much in terms of money but they did just throw away a chance to draft a useful player on a guy that all he ever did was light up a radar gun or look good in the weight room.

A player drafted is not all about filing a roster for the Low Level A team.  Their are a lot of D3 players that could play for minor league teams.  A player is drafted in the hopes of a skill or a skill set that can get to the Big Club.   that is why kids who throw in the mid 80's who could get people out in low level ball and probably do really good on those clubs are passed over by the 6-4 kid who throws 92.  6-4 an 92 mph plays a lot better in the higher levels than 86ish.  I hate it as much as the next person that more D3 kids are not drafted but the reality is tools are the name of the draft game and players at the D3 level just don't have the same tool box of skills.  I was on a staff that had 3 pitchers play pro ball and our best pitcher and the guy you wanted on the mound for the big gmae didn't play a day of pro ball.