0%

  Shenandoah, Emory, and Huntingdon are all ranked above those teams in the latest Regional rankings.
Even if Huntingdon is selected as a Pool B team (which I don't think will happen), the odds of a 4th South
Region team getting in are slim and none. Shenandoah is likely in....Emory and Huntingdon will need lots
of Conference favorites from around the country to win their respective Conference Tournaments to have the
best chance to get an at-large bid. And even then its not a sure thing.

   You'll have to forgive Narch. Unless it deals with numbers, percentages, isn't highlighted or color coded he has some difficulty comprehending it.

Quote from: narch on May 07, 2011, 04:52:37 PM

rhodes has absolutely no merit on this list, let alone in front of emory...how can they substantiate the lynx in any way?

emory should be ahead of rhodes, and i think both mu and maryville should be, as well...

here is how the three stack up

methodist: 46 SOS rank, .576 win %, .565/.538/.556 (owp, oowp, owp+oowp)
maryville: 62 SOS rank, .647 win %, .550/.551/.550
rhodes: 77 SOS rank, .575 win %, .539/.545/.541

maryville beat rhodes head to head, as well

the ONLY thing that rhodes has vs. maryville or methodist is proximity to usa stadium...hmmmm

Narch,

    Are we to assume that you would like to see the NCAA dissolve each regional selection committee and have the NCAA select teams solely based on numbers with zero human input or discussion?

  I included the below on a post in the National Regional rankings discussion. Maybe
you overlooked it. It shows validity to having Rhodes in the mix. I didn't even think to include MU with their 19 regional wins.

How about record vs. in-region common opponents as primary criteria? I think I got them all.

      Rhodes   14-8  .636
      Emory     10-6  .625
      M'Ville     12-11 .521
     

   Is there any value to how a team is playing down the stretch? I'm pretty sure LaGrange last year surged their way into the regional going 10-0 in their last 10.

       Rhodes  7-4
       Emory    5-6
       M'Ville    3-8

   Here is my .02 with regards to the Monarchs. I have them as 1-9 versus ranked South regional opponents. They were 0-6 vs. CNU and SU. 0-6. Not one win. Which combined with 1-9 shows me a team not capable of winning in a regional. But for me the biggest knock against them are the two late season losses at home vs. Salisbury. Here are two games that everyone in Monarchland had to recognize has crucial to their Pool C chances. They proceeded to go out and lose both games convincingly.
   I also question their non-conference scheduling. Yes wins over Immaculata, PSU Abington, Swarthmore, Arcadia, and SUNY Purchase are great for adding to the win column but where do these help come selection time? Before you give me Keystone and Tufts,  I can see through those wins....Keystone (it was their first game of the year vs. MU's 19th) and Tufts (playing their 6th game in 5 days in their 1st week of the season.) Maybe a few more games  vs. out of conference South region opponents help their case.
  Bottom line is that there is no clear cut #5 ranked South team. They all have their strong points and weaknesses. You could make an argument for any of them. I am a proponent of the human element involved with the selection of teams. I feel the coaches who see these teams day in and day out are capable of making better decisions than Joe the Casual Fan who may only see one side of the argument. Also, insinuating a team is ranked simply because of their proximity to a venue is short-sighted.
     

   

1.) CNU
2.) Shenandoah
3.) Piedmont
4.) Maryville
5.) Methodist
6.) Emory
7.) Rhodes
8.) Salisbury


   Methodist and Maryville control their destinies. Salisbury looks to need some help. Piedmont can basically lock up their regional bid with a conference title. Emory can't do much so I think its safe to say they are out. Rhodes can maybe slide in if they can take care of Hendrix in 2 games this weekend and get some help by having Maryville go 2 and out in the GSAC and Methodist stumble in their matchup with Salisbury.

   Also of note with regards to Millington being selected as a regional host site, there was not ONE South Regional institution that stepped up and offered to host the NCAA Regionals. It certainly is not ideal by any means geographically but what are you supposed to do when no one else steps up to the plate? I can assure you that the NCAA is well aware of the issues this site location causes but ultimately gave their stamp of approval on it.

  One last note........Mucho Macho Man in the Kentucky Derby.

Couple of observations......
   
1.) If the past is any indication, these regional rankings really mean very little at this particular juncture. There has been alot of movement in seasons past and I expect to see much the same in particular with next weeks rankings.
   
2.) La Grange in my opinion is not a top 6 regional team and I am pretty sure this will be seen in the next rankings.
   
3.) Salisbury needs one win this weekend to have a shot.
     
4.) Millsaps shouldn't really be in the mix as far as I'm concerned. Their numbers are not true in my opinion. The whole debacle with them and Trinity not playing that final series is bogus. Those games needed to be played. Had to. To me, Rhodes and Millsaps played a NCAA knockout game in the SCAC Tourney and Rhodes came out on top.

5.) Don't be surprised to see Rhodes climb into the mix. If they take 2 this weekend that puts them certainly in the discussion. Maybe Coach Cleanthes can work the same magic Coach Austin used in 2007 to get his Monarchs in ahead of Rhodes with a worse in-region record and a head to head loss.

Averett should be 9-2 with 7 wins coming against teams that went a combined 50-100 last season. We will see how good there are when they play Greensboro, H-S, and Methodist coming up.

St. Scholastica 2nd
Bethany Lutheran manager tossed out of game after 1. 
Lee, N. doubled to right center. 
Kolodge, P. singled to center field; Lee, N. advanced to third. 
Peterson, Ba flied out to rf, SF, RBI; Lee, N. scored. 
1 run, 2 hits, 0 errors, 1 LOB.


This was included in the play-by-play. Is this true? IMO, there's just no reason whatsoever that the skipper should do anything to get the heeve ho considering what is possibly at stake. You can't get thrown out in this spot. I don't care what the missed play or missed call was. I hate to see that.

IMHO.....they do not have the resume. I think this puts them clearly behind Methodist for sure. I think its fairly obvious that the South will be a 6-team regional and that means very little room for Pool C South contenders (i.e. Methodist) especially with York looking like they will grab a Pool B bid.

Salisbury
Shenandoah
York
NCW
ODAC Champ
(Take your pick)

As provided previously, here is the Tourney's Homepage.

http://www.gomajors.com/sports/2009/4/2/BB_0402092119.aspx?path=baseball

It states that livestats and live video will be provided for all games. I watched enough live video of Millsaps games this season and if it's the same setup....their play by play guy is very good and the quality compared to alot of others I have seen is outstanding. Tremendous asset for fans to follow along.

I'll take a final crack at this before the official rankings come out. I'm gonna also take a stab at how the Salisbury Regional will look in a few weeks. It's great to see Milby provide those numbers. As much as I would love to be official and exact with regards to OWP and OOWP, they don't pay me enough to sift through all that data for this amount of teams. I think you'll find my numbers comparable to those already mentioned anyway.

Opponent's Win Percentage  **ONLY REGIONAL GAMES INCLUDED**

1.) North Carolina Wesleyan        .608 opp. win %
2.) Emory                                     .577 opp. win %
3.) Huntingdon                             .565 opp. win %
4.) Christopher Newport              .557 opp. win %
5.) Methodist                               .555 opp. win %
6.) Shenandoah                           .550 opp. win %
7.) York                                        .542 opp. win %
8.) Virginia Wesleyan                   .535 opp. win %
9.) Salisbury                                 .512 opp. win %
10.) Rhodes                                  .507 opp. win %
11.) Millsaps                                 .504 opp. win %
12.) Lynchburg                             .502 opp. win %

In-Region Records

1.) Salisbury               26-5           .839
2.) Millsaps                 30-6           .833
3.) Shenandoah         25-7           .781
4.) York                      24-9           .727
5.) Lynchburg            19-10          .655
6.) CNU                      17-9           .654
7.) Rhodes                 20-11         .645
8.) Methodist             16-10         .615
9.) NCW                     21-14         .600
10.) Huntingdon        14-10          .583
11.) VW                     15-11          .577
12.) Emory                 17-14         .548


If I were guessing as to what the first regional ranking will look like, this is it....


1.) Millsaps              -looking forward to the Millsaps Invitational, I'm sorry I mean the SCAC
                                Conference Tournament. It their's to lose but they will have to earn it.
                                DePauw actually has an easy road if they take advantage of it. Millsaps
                                vs. Rhodes on Day 2 could be interesting matchup.
2.) Salisbury           - spotted Stevenson 5 runs in CAC Finals and still won by 11. If they are
                                lucky Millsaps gets shipped out of the South and a regional on their
                                home turf equals easy road to Appleton, WI.
3.) Shenandoah     - was disappointed with the result of the USA South Conference
                                 Tourney. Didn't do anything to silence their critics....but I am not one of
                                 them. I think they are in. No doubt. But as history tells us (Rhodes 2007
                                 and UT-Tyler 2008) nothing is for sure.
4.) York                  - The reality is there isn't much quality across the country in the Pool B
                                 department. Combine that with a decent record and they should get in.
5.) Lynchburg         - Will probably need to win ODAC Tourney to get in regional. Numbers
                                 probably not good enough to get a Pool C bid.
6a.) CNU
6b.) Methodist        -take your pick. Too close to call. Probably won't matter anyway. Need
6c.) Rhodes              alot of things to go their way to get a bid. Rhodes takes their shot in
                                 the SCAC this week.

As for how the regional would be set up....the biggest discussion is what is going to happen with Millsaps. Some seem to think that they are destined to be shipped out of the South and into the Central or even Mid-East. I don't see how that makes sense.

Jackson, MS to Salisbury, MD                  about 1,100 mi.
                    to Adrian, MI (Mid-East)      about  905 mi.
                    to Rock Island, IL (Central) about  760 mi.

I could see if the other options were somewhere in the 500 mi. range, it would make sense to ship them out. Is 400 mi. that big of a difference to send a team out of its region??? Guess we will find out. So for now, let's assume that Millsaps will be shipped out of the South and into the Central. My prediction for the regional would look like this....

1.) Salisbury        Pool B
2.) Shenandoah  Pool C  At Large
3.) York               Pool B
4.) NCW              USAC Champ Pool A
5.) Lynchburg      *ODAC Champ  Pool A    (*obviously assuming they win)
6.) Frostburg St.  *AMCC Champ Pool A     (*obviously assuming they win)

That last spot is really up in the air. So much could happen to determine that final spot. Putting Frostburg St. in there shows you just how one team winning can affect so much. The reality is that all those bubble teams in the South (CNU, Methodist, Rhodes) really have no margin for error and need zero upsets in other Conference Tourneys. Same goes for Lynchburg if they fall short in the ODAC Tourney.

Update Regional Statistics as of 4/7

Being this far along in the season, I went ahead and soley focused on in-region contests only. Once again, I did my best to double check out of region vs. in-region contests...but if there is one I missed please feel free to speak up.

As for in-region Strength of Schedule....calculated are opponents winning percentages. If they played an opponent more than once then it was factored in that way.

1.) Virginia Wesleyan    301-208      .591 opp. win %
2.) Huntingdon              271-216      .556 opp. win %
3.) Rhodes                    394-320       .552 opp. win %
4.) Christopher New.     278-232      .545 opp. win %
5.) Methodist                 293-248      .542 opp. win %
5.) Shenendoah            332-280       .542 opp. win %
7.) Emory                      353-306       .536 opp. win %
8.) York                         332-293       .531 opp. win %
9.) Salisbury                 293-286       .506 opp. win %
10.) Lynchburg              283-277      .505 opp. win %
11.) Millsaps                407-441        .480 opp. win %

In-Region Records

1.) Millsaps                 24-4     .857
2.) Shenendoah         20-4     .833
3.) Salisbury               19-4     .826
4.) York                       17-6    .739
5.) Methodist              14-6    .700
6.) Christopher New.  12-6    .667
7.) Lynchburg             13-8    .619
8.) Huntingdon           11-7    .611
9.) Emory                    14-9   .609
10.) Rhodes                17-11 .607
11.) Virginia Wesleyan 10-9  .526

My South Region Rankings

1.) Millsaps            -haven't done anything to leave this spot, certainly have earned it
                               but with their S.O.S. being what it is....are they battle tested enough
                               to win a NCAA Regional? SCAC tourney may provide answers
2.) Shenandoah    -slightly ahead of Salisbury in my mind......not the most challenging of
                              schedules the rest of the way....important series w/ NCW....rematch w/
                              Methodist in the USAC Tourney would be fun to watch
3.) Salisbury          -sent a message to York in their revenge game although York didn't
                               back down in the second tilt...certainly no lock to win CAC Tourney but
                               definitently the favorites....pretty much a lock Pool B bid barring a
                               disaster
4.) Methodist         - tough 4 game stretch vs. a pesky Ferrum squad and solid Christopher
                               Newport club....still have games w/ Emory and Piedmont...nice season
                               so far but will have to keep playing well to stay where they are
5.) York                  -rebounded from tough series w/ Salisbury to win 3 out of their next 4
                               still have work to do with Stevenson and Mary Wash left before CAC
                               Tourney...not to mention post CAC Tourney tilts w/ Hopkins, Newport,
                               and NC Wesleyan.....will show how good they are.....or not
6.) Chris. Newport   -only 2-2 in their last 4....enough to drop them down...Methodist
                                looms ahead this weekend....will get better idea of where they are at
                                yes Lynchburg beat them head to head...but CNU's schedule is a
                                little stronger and in my mind the USAC is slightly better than ODAC

Rest of the rest:   Lynchburg, Emory, Rhodes, Huntingdon

Think we are far enough along to go ahead and start this thread. Went ahead and did some research. Please note I only included 10 schools. I would have like to included more teams but I got tired and didn't have the energy to go 14 or 15 teams deep. Please feel free to check my numbers are correct.


The first thing I did was take the combined opponents wins and losses to basically get an idea of strength of schedule and ranked them accordingly.

1.) Virginia Wes- 129-81    .614 opp. win %
2.) Emory-          171-120   .588 opp. win %
3.) Rhodes-      168-129     .566 opp. win %
4.) CNU-            133-106    .556 opp. win %
5.) Salisbury-    108-88      .551 opp. win %
6.) Shenandoah-135-112   .547 opp. win %
7.) Millsaps-      146-129    .531 opp. win %
8.) Methodist-   159-148    .518 opp. win %
9.) York-           113-113     .500 opp. win %
10.) Lynchburg-  149-155    .490 opp. win %

Records vs. opp. w/records of .500 or better

1.) Millsaps-    13-0    1.000
2.) York-            7-1     .875
3.) Salisbury-  11-3      .786
4.) CNU-          9-3-1    .731
5.) Shenandoah 10-4  .714
6.) Emory           8-5    .615
    Virginia Wes. 8-5   .615
8.) Methodist     7-6    .538
9.) Rhodes-     10-10   .500
10.) Lynchburg-  2-4    .333


In-Region Records

York-              13-0     1.000
Millsaps-        21-3       .875
Shenandoah- 14-3      .815
Salisbury-      12-3       .800
CNU-              10-4       .714
Methodist-       8-5       .615
Lynchburg-      8-5       .615
Emory-             9-6       .600
Rhodes-         12-8       .600
Virginia Wes.- 6-6        .500


Once again this was all done in fun and not so much by the book. If I had to go ahead and rank the Top 8 in the South as of today....

1.)Millsaps          -body of work justifies it.....region too deep to avoid slip ups
2.)York               -beat Salisbury and haven't lost a region game...schedule not all that
                            tough though.....will need to prove it belongs
3.)CNU               - splitting conference weekends good but not good enough...schedule
                            lightens up before big weekend with Methodist
4.)Salisbury       -not a big fan of their scheduling...but they win and its usually enough
                          to get them in a regional...perfect DIII baseball location...far enough
                          north to not play solid South region teams and close enough for the Mid-
                          Atlantic teams to step outside for the 1st time and try to compete
5.)Shenandoah  -would be higher w/ better effort against Methodist...@ Wash. Lee,
                            @ Lynchburg and series vs. NCW will tell the tale
6.)Emory            -solid start to season but nothing that opens your eyes
7.)Methodist      -2 wins over Shenandoah are nice...win over LC but loss to VW
                           Wesleyan and 2 L's to NC Wesleyan not so nice
8.)Rhodes          -8 losses in region all ready....but probably have one of the toughest
                             schedules to date...20 games vs. quality opp....will need to pile on
                             wins in conference play to be in serious consideration....Lynchburg
                             and Virginia Wesleyan could be in this spot as well

Rhodes defeats Emory 6-1 to improve to 8-2 on the year. Andy Holt picks up the win to move to 3-0. Mason Mosby and Brent Lindsey combined for 5 hits and 5 RBI's. Rhodes finish up their weekend with a game against NC Wesleyan. Take note, game was originally scheduled for a 4:00 start but it has since been moved up to 2:45.
Also, Emory provided a webcast of the game and must say it was very well done. I know Millsaps uses this as well. Wish more programs/institutions would implement the use of this technology!

Not to add fuel to the fire but.........a guy makes Honorable Mention All-American you would think they were at least a 1st team All-Conference performer in their league and at worst maybe in a good league a 2nd Teamer. But to be Honorable Mention in the North Eastern Athletic Conference and that somehow translates into
Honorable Mention All American, not sure I see it.

Frank,

I can report to you that the "rumors" speculating on Flanagan's shoulder are false as false can be. Reality is that he came off a tremendous season for the Lynx in 2007 and carried that over into an impressive summer league campaign. I'm sure like most coaches would do and the path Coach Cleanthes has taken is to scale back his normal fall routine. Fact is that in the limited action he did see this fall, he looked as good if not even a little better. And that statement can be applied to the whole Rhodes team itself, we the number of returning starters and the addition of some quality freshman to the mix for the upcoming 2008 season.

As for "getting screwed on a horrible runners interference call" alleged by PetrelBaseball, I'm not sure if your were there or not but I don't see how someone sliding 4 feet outside of the bag would be considered a legal play at the college level. But then again i'm sure you will argue it wasn't that far.....but the umpire thought so and that's all that matters.

Looking forward to the upcoming season.