Calvin and Wisconsin Lutheran sit right next to each other in the Massey rankings, at #17 and #18. WLC has the better record, at 25-3 compared to Calvin's 21-6, but Calvin has had a more challenging schedule, against teams that are 4.5 points stronger on average. WLC's average margin of victory is 15.4 vs Calvin's 12.0.

Calvin is 4-2 against Massey top-25 teams (with 6 losses over all), and WLC has not played any teams in Massey's top 25.

Massey gives Calvin a 56% chance of winning, with a most likely score of 73-71. Over the last 5 games, Calvin has played with Massey power 18.5, to 11.3 for WLC. That would suggest a 7 point win for Calvin.

WLC has starters who are about as experienced as they come: one senior and four graduate students. There are three players who score in double figures on average,

#33, 6'8" forward Ryan Broeckel, who averages 17.8 points and 8.7 rebounds,
#2, 6'0" guard Jacob Stoltz, who averages 16.9 points per game, and
#20, 6'3" guard Grayson Goetz, who averages 15.8 points per game.

If you think that's a lot of high-scoring players, you are right. WLC averages 84.5 points per game, while Calvin gives up 62.7. WLC plays only a little faster, with an adjusted tempo of 73.8, compared to Calvin's 71.5. It will be interesting to see which end of the 62.7...84.5 spectrum they end up closer to.

Quote from: oldknight on February 23, 2025, 04:48:58 PM

Quote from: GoKnights68 on February 22, 2025, 06:25:05 PMNice 70-53 win by Calvin over Trine today to finish the MIAA undefeated (first time since 2000 I think?).  They got off to 20-2 lead to start, and from there it seemed Calvin sustained about 15-20 point lead throughout the game.  Calvin really is going to have cut back on their turnovers asap if they want to make a run in tourney, should they make it.  They were fortunate that Trine shot so poorly, but nonetheless, a 17 point victory over the defending national champs and second place team is hard to complain about.

It did seem that the only real negative in Calvin's play yesterday was turnovers, but Trine plays fabulous defense, double teaming in unexpected ways and at unexpected times. But when Calvin did avoid the turnover problem, they typically wound up with a high value shot which explains their superior shooting which was the difference in the game. The Knights defenders are also a terrific defensive squad but they seem to take fewer chances than Trine does on that side of the ball. Consequently, I think Trine's shot selection yesterday was inferior to Calvin's which largely explains the shooting disparity. I did think Calvin made several turnovers that appeared to be unforced, but when a ballhandler is expecting to be severely challenged while handling the ball, the urgency--and anxiety--level goes up, and leads to unnecessarily quick and faulty decision making. All in all, a great game to watch, though the inestimable Mrs. OldKnight thought the officiating left something to be desired and didn't match the overall quality of the game.

Hmmm. I hadn't really thought about the fact that that there is a tradeoff between going for steals and solid defense, that a high number of steals may also result in a higher opponent field goal percentage. Nice observation.

Maybe we need some combination stat that includes both factors. Or would that just be defensive efficiency? From D3Datacast, Calvin 86.3 (#4), Trine 89.7 (#15).

Attendance at the Calvin-Trine game was 2836. That's the largest non-Hope-game crowd I've seen in many years. Maybe a decade?

Quote from: Grutte Dirk on February 16, 2025, 06:42:18 PM

Quote from: ziggy on February 14, 2025, 12:48:33 PMFor any Calvin fans wondering about a "rooting guide" as games play out down the stretch, here is what I have come up with.

Root for Calvin to win any game they play. Duh.

Root for all of Calvin's non-conference opponents to win. Again, kind of duh, but the higher up the ranks any opponent can go the better the wins will look and the less the hit taken for the losses.

In games not involving Calvin, it is probably to their benefit for Hope and Trine to not stumble again. Both teams are currently in range for the added "quality win bonus" so a loss by either would be more detrimental than a normal conference game where things "come out in the wash" with one team losing and one team winning.

It would also be beneficial for Adrian to not lose either of their games against Alma or Kalamazoo. The Alma wins are currently excluded from Calvin's resume because they are beyond the minimum wins dial and adding in those additional wins would hurt Calvin's overall NPI. That means the Alma win the other night was bad news as Calvin saw no benefit while their win against Kalamazoo took a hit. Ideally now both the games against Alma AND Kalamazoo will fall off Calvin's resume while Adrian looks a little better.

preach

So with a little experience of the NPI system under our belts, and with a little more awareness of its oddities, what lessons are there for coaches creating schedules for future years?

It used to be that you would look for games against teams that are likely to be regionally ranked, or games against mediocre teams with good records against a weak schedule.

What games should the canny coach be trying to schedule now?

Quote from: oldknight on January 15, 2025, 10:33:12 PMAfter the first 18+ minutes of the most miserable offense I have seen from a Calvin team in many years, the Knights dominated the final 21+ minutes of play against the visitors from Adrian. Trailing 26-14 with 1:33 left in the first half, the Knights scored the last 7 points of opening frame. That welcome and needed closure to first 20 minutes marked the beginning of total dominance over the Bulldogs, with Calvin closing out the game on a 59-17 run and a 73-43 win at VNA. Calvin missed 9 straight wide-open shots from the arc to start the game, but the host team then made 8 of their next 9 to fuel the rout. As bad as Calvin was on offense in the first half, they played terrific defense throughout, and that appeared to wear on their opponent. Ty Horky--who seemed to be the only Calvin player to do anything the opening frame--led with 17, followed by Egekeze and Varnado adding 14 each, and Winkle with 10. Adrian got 20 from Dickerson and 10 from Logan. The Calvin win marked Bill Sall's 100th victory in his 6th season as head coach.

That was the most extreme "tale of two halves" that I remember seeing. If the game had continued as the first 18 minutes went, it would have ended as a 27-point Adrian victory, 58-31. If the whole game had gone like the last 22 minutes, it would have been a 76-point Calvin win, 107-31. That's a 103 point difference in the margin of victory/loss!

Given the changes in NCAA rules, when do basketball practices start this fall?

Quote from: Flying Dutch Fan on October 02, 2024, 03:23:09 PM

Quote from: Dark Knight on October 02, 2024, 01:23:52 PMI'm thinking maybe it would be fun if I sang the national anthem at Saturday's football game when Calvin hosts Alma. What do you think--should I do it?

Depends - will the rest of the fans be singing with you, or are we talking a full blown acapella solo?

All of the fans would be singing with me, of course, but I would be out on the field, at the 50 yard line, mic'ed, so everyone could hear. Sounds kind of exciting and fun -- for me at least, if not for all who have to hear me!

I'm thinking maybe it would be fun if I sang the national anthem at Saturday's football game when Calvin hosts Alma. What do you think--should I do it?

Well, that was unexpected.

Quote from: TUAngola on August 27, 2024, 05:07:57 PMMassey has Calvin with a 78% chance of winning against Oberlin.  Predicted score of 35-20.

Of course, Massey has zero knowledge about Calvin football this season or any other.

Other than being undefeated since 1876, of course.

Calvin really seems to be going all out. A passel of coaches. 120 kids on the roster.  The football building is very nice. They even hired a marching band director.

I wonder how big the scoreboard of the planned stadium will be. If it's half as big as the new soccer scoreboard, it'll be ginormous.

Quote from: KnightSlappy on July 28, 2024, 08:40:50 PM

Quote from: Dark Knight on July 28, 2024, 05:41:25 PM"Offers"?  What does Trine—or any D3 school—have to offer to potential players? A spot on the roster?

Yes, that is the parlance in D3 recruiting.

Interesting.

In real life, offers are usually the start of a bargaining process.

"No, I want TWO spots on the roster!"

"Offers"?  What does Trine—or any D3 school—have to offer to potential players? A spot on the roster?

What's that, beating #17, #2, and #4, just to get to the elite 8!?

Apparently RMC hadn't played any teams with a tall, skilled center yet.

Quote from: KnightSlappy on December 19, 2023, 03:55:13 PM

Quote from: Dark Knight on December 19, 2023, 03:32:21 PM

Quote from: HOPEful on December 15, 2023, 09:08:20 AM

Quote from: Dark Knight on December 15, 2023, 08:33:16 AM

Quote from: northb on December 13, 2023, 10:27:03 AM
Calvin 1 point shy of being ranked #1....

Phew!

Teams that get ranked #1 seem to immediately lose a game and drop in the polls.

John Carroll vs Hampden-Sydney on Wednesday: I'm looking at you.

Uh oh, if you believe that logic, Calvin should be number 1 just in time for the Platteville game

Uh-oh, it's not looking good for Calvin vs. Platteville. Hampden-Syndey is leading John Carroll 62-45 late in the game.

No new poll till the new year, so no worries about Calvin moving up.

Phew. And anyway, maybe the pollsters will come to their senses and put Guilford at #1.

Quote from: HOPEful on December 15, 2023, 09:08:20 AM

Quote from: Dark Knight on December 15, 2023, 08:33:16 AM

Quote from: northb on December 13, 2023, 10:27:03 AM
Calvin 1 point shy of being ranked #1....

Phew!

Teams that get ranked #1 seem to immediately lose a game and drop in the polls.

John Carroll vs Hampden-Sydney on Wednesday: I'm looking at you.

Uh oh, if you believe that logic, Calvin should be number 1 just in time for the Platteville game

Uh-oh, it's not looking good for Calvin vs. Platteville. Hampden-Syndey is leading John Carroll 62-45 late in the game.