Well, maybe a wee bit optimistic. On the other hand, as the investment literature warns, past performance is no guarantee of future results. We'll see.

 

Whoops. I meant 5-3.

In response to Trin 8-0: Yes, the Bobcats should do better than 1-7 and yes, they can win more than 2 games, on the road or at home.

Last year, they lost 2 games in OT, both by a FG; 14-17 to Wes and 7-10 to Colby. They beat Hamilton in 2006 at home, and the previous year beat them at Steuben Field. The 'cats were very competitive with Tufts and Bowdoin last year, and have been suprisingly competitive against Williams the last two years (lost last year 27-7, but were up at the half; lost in 2005 7-8).
So, I think it's fair to predict that the bottom-to-middle of NESCAC is up for grabs, and that Bates has a decent shot at going at least 4-4. They've had great recruiting years the last two years, with some very strong freshman and sophs (receiver Matt Gregg; 6-7 transfer tight end Sean Wirth), and will be playing very close to the 75-man roster limit, compared to recent years wehn they were playing in the mid-50s to mid-60s.

My aggressive prediction for Bobcats Football 07:

5-4, with wins over Hamilton, Wesleyan, Colby, Bowdoin, and Tufts. 

Quote from: nescac1 on August 14, 2007, 04:33:56 PM
That is interesting, well done.  One reason New England, and in particular Massachusetts, is so heavily represented is because of the high concentration of prep schools in those areas.  Prep schools are fertile recruiting ground for NESCAC schools for a number of reason: the kids usually have strong academic backgrounds, often have money (NESCAC tuitions are not cheap), and the NESCAC schools are all very well known at every prep / private school in the northeast.   I guarantee that there are a higher percentage of private school, and more pointedly prep school, alums at NESCAC schools than any other D-III conference. 

Even though there are a lot of qualified kids who may be more talented in other parts of the country, it takes a lot more legwork to find them, whereas a kid from BB&N or Exeter is more of a known quantity (and NESCAC is more of a known quantity for them).  Indeed, a lot of NESCAC alums teach and coach at northeast private schools, so that creates an even stronger tie.  As long as there is an enormous concentration of prep schools staffed by NESCAC alums in the northeast, I imagine there won't be significant changes to the NESCAC recruiting base. 

It does seem to be a rather regional recruiting culture, though I don't doubt most NESCAC coaches would love some big studs from Texas, Cal., Florida, etc. who fell just below Pete Carroll's or Urban Meyer's radar (but that ain't gonna happen any time soon...) My son, who now plays at Bates, is from of those states that has a 1-2% showing in NESCAC..but his high school actually sends a good number of kids to NESCAC colleges. He wanted to play NESCAC football, so when we looked into the recruiting process, it was clear that in order for him to get maximum exposure (aside from the usual sending tapes) he would need to attend one of the popular summer "skills" (read recruiting) camps in New England. He went to the 4-day New England Elite camp in Lexington, MA, which included among its "coaches (read recruiters) a member of the coaching staff from every NESCAC school, most of the Ivies, and several other New England schools. It worked - he was "recruited" actively - phone calls and visit invites -  by 3-4 schools, and had conversations with every single one. Nescac1 is completely accurate - there are not only more NE boarding school kids playing in NESCAC than at any other D3 conference, but also than at the Ivies. For example, Bates has 15 football players from New England boarding schools, while Harvard has only 5. This would not have been true a generation or two ago. What Harvard does have that Bates, or any NESCAC school, doesn't have in any large numbers, is a bunch of kids who actually may have been looked at by Carroll and Meyers - the Harvard roster a fair number from football powerhouses like DeLaSalle (CA), Ransom Everglades (FL), Bergen Catholic (NJ), and Plano (TX).
It is difficult for NESCAC coaches to recruit outside of the region - they can't travel and visit; the NESCAC schools, except for maybe Amherst and Williams, are hardly known in the West, the Southwest, and the Southeast, and there are no scholarships to throw around. My sense is that for kids from outside of New England or the northeast who end up playing NESCAC football, their initial or primary attraction was academic/social, rather than football. And frankly, that's the way it should be in NESCAC. Let's be real - these kids are not playing NESCAC football in hopes of becoming a first-round (or any round) draft pick. Any one of them is more likely to end up as a brain surgeon or a CEO than he is on an ESPN highlights tape - and I think that's sort of the point of NESCAC (though it is great to see the occasional NESCAC player to get some attention at the pro levels - which happens every now and then)

And - more curiosity, Capt. P - does your nom de message board refer to Capt. Alden Partridge, the West Point/Norwich University guy? He is an ancestor of my cousins. But this is off-point. Do want to know about your sense of the NESCAC schools re. campus atmosphere.

Capt. Partridge -

I take it you're a Wes football alum? You seem to know NESCAC well.
Just curious, what would your buckets be (re political/social characterization of the schools)? The conventional wisdom (received by me) is not always right - you may have a more accurate sense of these things.

As mentioned, my son was not interested in an ultra-liberal or PC environment, though to some degree that's pretty hard to avoid at NESCAC schools. He ended up at Bates.  Among the NESCAC schools, I'd say most are in the moderate range. Based on observations of the student bodies, emanations from the administration, and other admittedly unscientific data points, these are my assessments:

Annoyingly ultra-PC (Protests, chalkings, GLBT groups, Vegans running wild, and an actual certified student group called the C--T club (rhymes with punt): Wesleyan

Moderatety PC, but not ridiculous:  Amherst

Some save-the-whales vibe; some rich-kid cruchiness and white-boy dreadlocks, but overall normal sensibilities: Bowdoin, Midd, Bates

Significant down-the-middle, standard-issue prep, pre-Wall Street population: Williams, Colby, Hamilton, Trin

Regular smart suburban pre-law pre-med pre-MBA types prevail: Tufts   

Re. Wesleyan and recruiting - a very interesting issue.
My son was recruited two years ago most heavily - meaning lots of phone calls and invitations to come to a game -  by Bates, Tufts, Wesleyan and Hamilton (see a pattern there?) He chose Bates because, losing record notwithstanding, he liked the coaches, the program, the guys on the team, and felt comfortable at the school. Academically, I think he could have handled any of the schools - though he probably would have needed the slot or tip at Wes and Tufts to get in there (high SAT, middling grades from top private school). It probably helped as Bates, as well, for his ED admission.

To be honest, he didn't give Wes much of a chance. We visited briefly the summer after 10th grade, but during the heart of the recruiting season - fall of his senior year, he had pretty much written off Wes because of his perception (accurate or not) of the green-hair anti-globalization-protest factor. The thing is, I'm not sure how much different Bates is on that front, and whether Wes is really as freaky as its reputation would have it. I think probably not - and I think the experience for a football player may not be that much different among the school.

He is very happy at Bates, though of course would love to have a more successful football team. Would he have been just as happy at Wes? Probably. I think Wes probably needs to recognize that there are lots of football types who are put off by the school's far-left reputation, which may or may not matter in the life of the average Wes football player.

Dave- Don't know about "entwined in a love" for the Bobcats, but I do have a son who plays for them, and I certainly would like to see them reach their potential - which is much better than a 1-7 or 2-8 season (the usual) would suggest.
Bates has had two excellent recruiting seasons, and has a number of juniors and seniors who are as good as any in NESCAC. This season, for the first time in I don't know how long (ever?) they will have to make cuts - about 6 or 7 - to get down to the NESCAC 75-max. Which should help with motivation during pre-season. Last season, the Bobcats were highly competitive in the majority of their games, and even was ahead of Williams at the half. They seem to have a habit of starting strong and finishing weak, with the exception last season of the incredibly competitive Colby game - played in a mud bowl/downpour, which the 'Cats lost in the 4th OT (and ended up in a beautiful photo in SI - RB Jamie Walker enveloped by 4 or 5 Mules).
I will go out on a limb and predict that the mighty Bobcats will finish in the middle of the NESCAC this season, and go 4-4. They'll beat Bowdoin, Wes, Hamilton, and, yes - Colby, to capture the CBB. 

On the other hand...the weather during the Bates-Hamilton game last year, on Nov. 11 in Lewiston, was spectacular - clear blue skies; 65-70 degrees. You never know. Coastal  or near-coastal Maine (which would include Brunswick and maybe Lewiston, but not Waterville) can have some surprisingly pleasant early Novembers. By Thanksgiving, though, it's usually pretty nippy.  If you check weather.com, you'll see that the Maine schools are not the only ones that get real nippy - Hamilton, Williams, and Midd have pretty much the same weather as Bates, Bowdoin, and Colby. I think Midd and Colby compete for the "coldest in NESCAC" award. 

Quote from: The Great Pumpkin on July 18, 2007, 06:29:37 PM
BTW - one of the schools TGP looked at, but didn't apply to, was Bates College.

TGP harkens back in the early 90s, when TGP was a prospective college student,
the Bearcats hadn't won a game in like 4 years.

Based on the results page here on D3FB.com, they STILL SUCK (only averaging about 2 wins a season since 99)!

Why can't Bates field a competitive team?

Lack of interest in football by the college? 
No support from the administration?
Bad coaching?

What's the deal here? 

I wish I knew. The coaching is excellent, the team is growing (there will be 85 showing up for pre-season, so 10 cuts), and there were 4-5 games last season where it really could have gone either way. It is a mystery to me why Bates can field successful teams in so many other sports, but not in football. I would welcome any historical perspective, thoughts, or comments.