Also, Alma's eighth win is not yet included.

Serious question ... when they run the NPI numbers, they must be using last week's numbers to determine this week's new numbers, right?  Then are the numbers run again using the new NPI numbers for each team?  If that's how it works, I'm holding out hope for a positive bump for Wheaton and a negative one for UMHB!

If Wheaton had offered to travel to NPU and won, would that have been enough to improve their NPI by a hundredth or two?

I would suspect that both Whitworth and Linfield will stay above Wheaton ... but swapping A and C bids, right?

But beware of John Carroll ... their win over Marietta, once posted, will give them a nice bump in NPI ... enough to jump over Wheaton?  We'll see.

NPI update!

Wheaton currently sitting at 13th ... one hundredth behind UMHB.

Marietta's loss seems to not yet be included ... stay posted!

Logan Hansen's projected playoff bracket includes Wheaton and excludes Wabash, Oshkosh and UMHB.  He is, most likely, projecting losses for both Wabash and Oshkosh ... but why is UMHB being left out?  They are a heavy favorite to win, to put it mildly.  Is it because their NPI will drop considerably due to a win vs. 1-7 Howard Payne?  While most teams are able to throw out a win or two against weak opponents to bolster their NPI, UMHB doesn't have that luxury.  I would be interested to see some data analysis of how much UMHB's NPI will drop with a win this week.

Okay ... for a 5-way tie of 6-2, with each team going 2-2 vs. the other 4 ... Wheaton would be the HUGE favorite to win the AQ.  As someone mentioned already, with CC beating IWU and NCC but losing to MU and IWU beating MU, this scenario would be a reality (although, not likely IMO).  Wheaton is done with the other 4 teams and has a point differential of +37.  North Central has just 1 game left, and assuming that to be a loss to Carthage, the best they can finish is +20.  IWU would have 2 games remaining with the other 4 tied teams with a current differential of -9.  Assuming one being a win and the other a loss, unless the win is a big blowout, besting +37 is not likely.  Millikin is at -26 with a win and loss remaining to finish at 6-2.  Again, besting +37 is not very probable.  Carthage, with 3 games remaining with these potential 6-2 tied teams, is currently at -23.  Even with a 2-1 finish, besting a +37 differential is again, very unlikely. 

Now, throw an upset in the mix by Carroll, North Park, Elmhurst or Augie and that could change everything.  There could then be a 4-way or 3-way tie for 1st and removing a team or two from that 6-2 tie scenario would change the point differential situation, possibly drastically.  It should be fun to follow the action over the next 4 weeks as things could get very interesting.  Huge game for IWU and CC this Saturday.  We will know more about the possibility of all of this happening by Saturday afternoon.

My gut (prediction) says:  NCC 7-1, WHT, IWU and CC tied at 6-2 and MU finishes at 5-3.  And then my hope would be that a 6-2 team gets invited to the dance (but that is dependent on so many other things which could then be discussed more intelligently in 3 weeks over at the Pool C board).     

Quote from: wheatie barefooter on November 04, 2012, 07:51:32 PM

Quote from: ILGator on November 04, 2012, 07:27:36 PM
I think everyone on Wheaton (the players and the coaching staff) knew what the tiebreaker situation was. If you go back to 2006, NCC needed to beat Augie for a 3-way tie, and needed to win by 25 or 26 to gain the tiebreaker edge (NCC won 27-0). Everyone on the NCC side of the field knew what was needed.

Back to Saturday. It was a 14 point game. If Wheaton has a disastrous play, who knows what could happen. NCC could score on an interception or fumble. Then, it's a one TD game, the onside kick comes into play, and NCC would have a chance. Wheaton needed to seal the win, and then go to the last weekend still with a chance.

Although I completely understand your logic, we all are familiar with a team going for 2 at the end of the game to WIN IT!  Similarly, Wheaton had that opportunity on that 4th and goal to go up by 21 and not only win the game but make the AQ a real possibility.  Going up by 17, while it may seal the game, doesn't address the AQ situation.  They had a chance for the knockout blow (just like the team going for 2) and they chose the conservative play, the FG attempt.  Again, there is no intent on my part to disparage the Wheaton coaching staff but rather my preference would've been to throw that knockout blow!!

Here's hoping to something funky happening this next weekend so that Wheaton can get into the playoffs.

AND ... can't that disastrous play occur on the FG attempt?  Blocked and returned for a TD?  Gotta go for the knockout blow, IMO.

Quote from: ILGator on November 04, 2012, 07:27:36 PM
I think everyone on Wheaton (the players and the coaching staff) knew what the tiebreaker situation was. If you go back to 2006, NCC needed to beat Augie for a 3-way tie, and needed to win by 25 or 26 to gain the tiebreaker edge (NCC won 27-0). Everyone on the NCC side of the field knew what was needed.

Back to Saturday. It was a 14 point game. If Wheaton has a disastrous play, who knows what could happen. NCC could score on an interception or fumble. Then, it's a one TD game, the onside kick comes into play, and NCC would have a chance. Wheaton needed to seal the win, and then go to the last weekend still with a chance.

Although I completely understand your logic, we all are familiar with a team going for 2 at the end of the game to WIN IT!  Similarly, Wheaton had that opportunity on that 4th and goal to go up by 21 and not only win the game but make the AQ a real possibility.  Going up by 17, while it may seal the game, doesn't address the AQ situation.  They had a chance for the knockout blow (just like the team going for 2) and they chose the conservative play, the FG attempt.  Again, there is no intent on my part to disparage the Wheaton coaching staff but rather my preference would've been to throw that knockout blow!!

Here's hoping to something funky happening this next weekend so that Wheaton can get into the playoffs. 

Quote from: nccfac on November 04, 2012, 01:43:52 PM

Quote from: wheatie barefooter on November 04, 2012, 01:14:45 PM

But, what puzzled me more than anything else was NC's decision to NOT onside kick with 2 minutes left, down by 14.  Or, was this a good decision since they knew they had possibly secured the AQ tiebreaker with that final score (assuming EC, WC and NC all win out)??

With the win, Wheaton has put themselves back on top of the CCIW (although will probably miss the playoffs due to the 2 earlier losses).  CONGRATS THUNDER!!

Those of us on NCC side were hoping we would not try an onside kick just for the reason you stated.
In the Chicago Trib online a writeup on the game -http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/ct-spt-1104-wheaton-north-central-football--20121104,0,2118694.story

At the time, I was in disbelief ... but after the fact, it was a brilliant move to "kick it deep" and then let Wheaton run out the clock.

Quote from: Mugsy on November 04, 2012, 10:52:02 AM

Quote from: ncc_fan on November 04, 2012, 10:46:31 AM
I'm not questioning the Wheaton coaching staff for "failing to win by 20."  I congratulate them & the Wheaton players for brilliant game planning, hard-hitting, & execution.  I'm simply wondering why they didn't TRY to win by 20 when they had the ball, 2 minutes on the clock, and an offense that had been flying down the field and embarrassing NCC's defense all afternoon long.

Fair enough... I see the subtly in the question.  To an extent it is a fair question.

I just don't think Wheaton came into the game thinking "we need to win by 20."  I'm pretty sure they focused on getting the win first.

First off, it was a marvelous game by both the Thunder players AND coaching staff.  "You play to win the game!" and that they did in impressive style.  The decision I questioned was not the end of game defensive softness but rather the decision made with less than 8 minutes left in the game.  The Thunder had just marched 62 yards in 12 plays and had a fourth and goal from the one.  I say, punch it in!!  I was sitting with the father of the Thunder kicker (another former Crusader) and we had a mild disagreement before the kick was attempted (and missed).  I know ... you want to go up by 3 scores (and that's probably the safe and wise decision) but I thought it was an opportunity to put the game away by going for the td.

Secondly, I should add - my thinking during this decision had nothing to do with the tiebreaker scenario - I was only thinking about the win!!  Only after the game did I start thinking about the AQ tiebreaker.

But, what puzzled me more than anything else was NC's decision to NOT onside kick with 2 minutes left, down by 14.  Or, was this a good decision since they knew they had possibly secured the AQ tiebreaker with that final score (assuming EC, WC and NC all win out)??

With the win, Wheaton has put themselves back on top of the CCIW (although will probably miss the playoffs due to the 2 earlier losses).  CONGRATS THUNDER!!

Quote from: BashDad on December 13, 2008, 02:28:12 PM

Quote from: wheatie barefooter on December 13, 2008, 02:24:59 PM
Congrats Nate ... "very impressive" is quite an understatement.

In all seriousness, every time I see a shot of players from Mount Union (with their helmets off), they look like men compared to the college boys from Wheaton.  As the saying goes ... "men among boys"

I'm not sure I agree. Your thunder boys look pretty damn good in their own right. If they hadn't shot themselves in the foot several times, it would've been more evident how close they were in terms of ability.

Don't get me wrong ... I'm not commenting on the Thunder's effort rather on the "manly" appearance of the players from Mount.

Absolutely, despite some turnovers and a failure to stop Kmic, Wheaton's effort has been commendable.

Congrats Nate ... "very impressive" is quite an understatement.

In all seriousness, every time I see a shot of players from Mount Union (with their helmets off), they look like men compared to the college boys from Wheaton.  As the saying goes ... "men among boys"

great stick put on Kmic to cause fumble.  Wheaton takes over.

check that ... fumble not caused by hit!