I'm VERY curious to know how teams would be regionally ranked after this weekend.  Coe, Carthage, and IWU would likely still be on top, but who comes next?  NPU and BVU both made quick exits from their conference tourneys, and Augustana probably didn't belong in the rankings to begin with.

I would be shocked to see only one Pool C come out of the Central - who is in line after IWU?  Assuming NCC doesn't take two from Carthage tomorrow...

Quote from: augie_superfan on May 13, 2011, 12:46:08 PM

Quote from: wustlfan37 on May 13, 2011, 03:52:08 AM

Quote from: izzy stradlin on May 12, 2011, 07:24:56 PM

Quote from: BigPoppa on May 12, 2011, 03:14:04 PM
New Rankings from NCAA website:

1 Coe 26-9 29-10 (Thought they'd be #1))
2 Illinois Wesleyan 23-11 25-14 (Thought they's be #2)
3 Carthage 19-7 26-10 (Thought they'd be #5)
4 Buena Vista 26-11 27-13 (Thought they's be #4)
5 North Park 26-7 30-10 (Thought they'd be #3)
6 Augustana (Ill.) 21-12 28-12  (No idea why they are still on this)


This does NOT look good at all for WashU. I cannot remember a team that was unranked in the final published regional poll that was awarded a Pool C bid(and I don't see them getting a Pool B). I guess the biggest surprise once again is Carthage. Last week they were 6-0 and dropped from #2 to #4. This week they go 1-2 and rise to #3?

Greg Wallace of Augustana is chair of the committee.  Is this a coincidence?  By the numbers, 1-5 make sense-- although I'd probably swap NPU and Carthage also.  (http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/baseball/d3    click on the link for the central region pdf at the bottom-  I believe they rank teams by W% and SOS then combine the rankings)   U of C, NCC or Washu should be in the last spot. For example U of C has the same W% as Augie, a better SOS and better record vs ranked teams. Something is wrong with this committee.

Amen.  There is literally nothing to justify Augustana in this poll, not winning percentage, not wins against regionally ranked teams, not SoS, not head-to-head record. 

Unless there is a reward for being the 5th best team in your conference.  Maybe even the 6th.

I understand the frustration at Augustana still being ranked.  I'm very surprised myself but I think it goes to show that there are really only 5 teams worth ranking in the Central region this year.  Augie, Chicago, WashU, NCC are all in roughly the same boat.  Sure, some teams have slightly better numbers than others but in the end, I don't think any of them have the numbers to be competitive in terms of getting a playoff bid so I don't think that it matters much.

In my opinion, it should be Chicago in above any other the otehrs, especially with that 3-0 sweep of Wash U.

Also, Augie is definitely the 5th best team in the conference...would you be implying that Wheaton or Elmhurst is better than them?

I haven't seen NCC play, but before they got VERY cold of late, they had a chance to move into the rankings.  Whether or not they are better than Augustana is up for debate, NCC could easily be ranked, perhaps if Coach Fitzgerald were the chair of the regional committee?

I think that with 28 wins and numerous quality wins (that no other team in the conversation has) WashU belongs in the rankings.  They have twice the wins that Chicago has, and have played a third of their games against regionally ranked teams. 

Obviously, I'm just as biased as the next guy - Chicago beat WashU three times, and one can certainly argue that head-to-head record should dictate the rankings.  WashU could have taken their fate into their own hands, but they had one terrible day and dropped 3 to U of C.  However, Chicago has not proven that they can hang with the the strongest teams - Coe, IWU, Scholastica, Case, etc., and WashU has.  Chicago is an extremely talented team, especially at the plate, but has done well over a much smaller sample size.

Quote from: izzy stradlin on May 12, 2011, 07:24:56 PM

Quote from: BigPoppa on May 12, 2011, 03:14:04 PM
New Rankings from NCAA website:

1 Coe 26-9 29-10 (Thought they'd be #1))
2 Illinois Wesleyan 23-11 25-14 (Thought they's be #2)
3 Carthage 19-7 26-10 (Thought they'd be #5)
4 Buena Vista 26-11 27-13 (Thought they's be #4)
5 North Park 26-7 30-10 (Thought they'd be #3)
6 Augustana (Ill.) 21-12 28-12  (No idea why they are still on this)


This does NOT look good at all for WashU. I cannot remember a team that was unranked in the final published regional poll that was awarded a Pool C bid(and I don't see them getting a Pool B). I guess the biggest surprise once again is Carthage. Last week they were 6-0 and dropped from #2 to #4. This week they go 1-2 and rise to #3?

Greg Wallace of Augustana is chair of the committee.  Is this a coincidence?  By the numbers, 1-5 make sense-- although I'd probably swap NPU and Carthage also.  (http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/baseball/d3    click on the link for the central region pdf at the bottom-  I believe they rank teams by W% and SOS then combine the rankings)   U of C, NCC or Washu should be in the last spot. For example U of C has the same W% as Augie, a better SOS and better record vs ranked teams. Something is wrong with this committee.

Amen.  There is literally nothing to justify Augustana in this poll, not winning percentage, not wins against regionally ranked teams, not SoS, not head-to-head record. 

Unless there is a reward for being the 5th best team in your conference.  Maybe even the 6th.

Quote from: upandin on May 03, 2011, 11:04:22 PM
Those numbers change every day.

And I also think those are the national SoS numbers, and the regional committees only make decisions based on regional SoS.  I could be wrong though...

Is the next regional ranking going to be drastically different?  Coe looks to be in good shape still, Carthage has a TON of games coming up, IWU, Augie, and BV just took very bad losses.  Will we see North Central and North Park there next week?

WashU just swept Fontbonne and will end the season with a 28-15 regional record.  The Bears' Stephen Bonser threw a no-hitter in the second game, and WU only surrendered 4 hits without giving up a run the entire day 

WashU sweeps Webster today, 4-2 and 5-4, bringing their regional record to 25-12

I cant even keep records straight anymore - Piedmont, Maryville, Case, Emory, and WashU are fighting for Pool B, all with 22-25 wins and 10-13 losses.  Predictions?

Emory loses two to Berry College this weekend - I know Berry is a provisional D3 member, so are those regional games?  Case losing to Wooster 12-7 end of 6 in the first game of a doubleheader.

Quote from: theoneandonly on April 13, 2011, 02:53:46 PM
I just want to throw this out there, Webster plays AT WashU tomorrow. Should be a great regional matchup and possibly mix up a few of your rankings, but only a little bit 

WashU beat Webster 5-4 today in a key regional matchup.  In a very well pitched baseball game on both sides.  WashU's Stephen Bonser earned the complete game victory with 9 Ks.  The two teams have a doubleheader Monday, also at Kelly Field in St. Louis.

Quote from: JagranSpartan on April 13, 2011, 12:29:48 AM
I don't think so.

Several of Case's early wins were against teams not in their region, as well as against UAA teams (none of which are in their region).

On a positive note, they blanked cross-town rival John Carroll yesterday to move to 12-6 in region, and 23-11 overall.

All games against UAA teams during the Sanford trip are regional games, regardless of what region or state the opposing team is in...there's an exception for a conference tournament I believe.

Quote from: BigPoppa on April 12, 2011, 07:58:41 AM
Maybe I am too much of a CCIW homer, but who else has made an impact on the national level in the last twenty years outside of the CCIW teams? Wartburg possibly, but that is about it.

If you have followed the Pool B boards at all, I have been one of the biggest backers of WashU and their SoS. My point is that if WashU wants to be higher in the poll, then they need to stop splitting games with IIAC teams they feel they should be ahead of. Looking at not just who WashU beat, but who they lost to, I see four terrible losses that could haunt them at selection time... Westminster, Dominican, Emory and Illinois College (you can't lose those games and then claim your ranking/lack of selection is unfair).

Out of curiosity, what would your top ten regional teams look like?

Definitely a valid point about the losses - that being said, it's baseball, and almost every team has a few bad losses on their resume.  Westminster and Dominican do hurt, but is it enough to cancel out the phenomenal wins that few in the central region have?

My top ten:

1. Carthage
2. Augustana
3. North Park
4. IWU
5. Webster
6. WashU
7. Coe
8. Simpson
9. Buena Vista
10. Spalding/Luther

The IIAC teams are somewhat interchangeable to me, but we essentially agree on the top 5.  WashU has three games against Webster this week, that should make things a little clearer. 

Quote from: BigPoppa on April 11, 2011, 08:36:39 PM
Being the Wash U guy that you are, I can understand that you feel SoS is undervalued. However, do you really think Wash U, with 11 losses, would be here if SoS was not accounted for?

I'm certainly aware that you account for SoS - that's why you have Webster 5th, which is probably about where they belong.  And it's also tough to gauge exactly how strong a schedule is without calculating the formula, something that most, myself included, don't have the time or patience to do.  That being said, a very good indication of the strength of a team is beating quality opponents, which is more easily quantifiable.  WashU has beaten IWU, CSS, Coe, Central, Case Western, Brandeis, Illinois College, who are all well over .500. 

WashU has to play well down the stretch to earn a regional bid, but ranking them 11th in the region is ridiculous.  I have more issues with your rankings from 6-12 than I do with the top.  I just don't understand how 11-7 North Central can belong at 7 and 15-8 Luther can belong at 12, unless SoS is a huge factor....and if it's a huge factor, then WashU's brutal schedule should put them somewhere around 6 or 7 in the region.

Quote from: BigPoppa on April 11, 2011, 01:38:24 PM
1. Carthage 14-4 CCIW (Defense could be their downfall as they commit too many errors to keep overcoming them)
2. North Park 19-5 CCIW (Still not completely sold on this team yet, but they continue to win games)
3. Augustana 16-4 CCIW (read same as North Park's comments)
4. Ill Wesleyan 13-6 CCIW (2 CCIW losses and have yet to play Carthage, NPU, North Central or Augustana... tough spot for IWU to contend from)
5. Webster 15-4 SLIAC (Only obstacle in their way looks to be Spalding who cannot play in the post-season... advantage, Webster!)
6. Simpson 15-7 IIAC (Someone needs to step up and take this conference soon... it is getting dull to watch)
7. North Central 11-7 CCIW (will hit the soft part of their CCIW schedule soon and their record will jump)
8. Coe 16-7 IIAC (Same as Simpson)
9. Spalding 16-7 SLIAC (I really wish they could face the Gorloks with is all on the line in the SLIAC tourney)
10. Buena Vista 14-8 IIAC (Same as Simpson)
11. WashU 21-13 IND Will the be saved by their SoS? Losing in-region games to Luther and Coe will not help them)
12. Luther 15-8 IIAC (Same as Simpson)

Notably absent is any MWC team. What a mess of a conference right now. Not even sure where to start.

WashU did not play Luther - they split with Central as well as Coe.

I'm confused as to what you're basing these rankings on...you've ranked North Central 7th because of presumed wins they will get in the future - their winning percentage does not justify their ranking.  You have Coe below Simpson, despite Coe having relatively deep pitching and one of the best offenses in the country.  Having watched (read: pitched against) IWU and Coe, IWU has several good pitchers (one stud), but Coe is MUCH stronger both defensively and at the plate.   

Spalding has beaten absolutely no one, yet they're in these rankings.  Why?  If Spalding is there, where's Dubuque? 

Basically, I'm saying that these rankings are too CCIW heavy, there isn't enough respect given to the IIAC, and strength of schedule is almost completely disregarded.  I'm not trying to be a jerk, but these rankings leave a lot to be desired.

I completely understand if you dock me karma points :-)  - I do have a deep appreciation for what you guys do for D3 baseball

So the teams that seem to be in contention for a Pool B bid are:

Case Western, Chapman, Dallas, Emory, Maryville (TN), St. John Fisher, Washington University in St. Louis

Did I miss any? 

Record-wise, St. John Fisher has lost the fewest games but seems to have a very weak schedule compared to the other teams.  Dallas has a good overall record but a mediocre regional record.  And Maryville has to get through GSAC league play relatively unscathed.

In the event that more than two Pool B's finish strong, what do we think the chances are that a Pool B team is given a Pool C bid?

Quote from: JohnnyU on April 04, 2011, 03:22:17 PM
New Column.. Win% vs. Top 25... How did they do against the best teams? For Pool B teams, not so well. Only WashU and Chapman have wins. A lot of teams still in the hunt for only two bids.

School         Win%          Reg'n Win%      vs. Top25
Ithaca   6   6   0.500   5   0   1.000   0   0   0.000
St. John Fisher   12   3   0.800   10   1   0.909   0   0   0.000
Maryville (Tenn.)   20   7   0.741   18   6   0.750   0   2   0.000
Chapman   19   5   0.792   12   5   0.706   1   2   0.333
Staten Island   10   8   0.556   9   4   0.692   0   1   0.000
Emory   21   10   0.677   21   10   0.677   0   1   0.000
Rochester Tech   6   8   0.429   6   3   0.667   0   0   0.000
Washington U.   19   11   0.633   19   10   0.655   2   4   0.333
Piedmont   18   12   0.600   16   10   0.615   0   2   0.000
Case Western Reserve   19   10   0.655   14   9   0.609   0   3   0.000

Have all of Emory's 31 games been played against regional opponents?  I know that Denison (2 games) and Marietta (1 game) are in the Mideast, and Hendrix (3 games) is in the West, but I'm aware that there are loopholes and exemptions to the rules regarding what games count towards a team's regional record. 

And I think St. John Fisher's overall record is 12-5, but I don't know much about that region so I'm not sure what their in-region record is at this point.

I see that there is a "Strength of Schedule" link on the main page, but it keeps giving me an error message when I click on it...are there numbers posted somewhere detailing SOS?  And are the formulas that the NCAA uses to determine at large bids public knowledge?