Wes, HC has to get past Centre tonight or it's all moot anyway.  I watched the first half of Centre's game last night and from what I saw beating them ain't going to be easy.

Ralph - Looks like I accidentally touched a nerve.  No offense was intended.

Ralph and Wes - Let me be explicit just so there's no misunderstanding.  I'm not complaining or saying that HC will have been cheated if they don't get a C bid.  I understand that they're marginal at best for one.  I did perceive before Wes's post that the committee is inclined to think that the ASC is stronger than the SCAC this season, which I'm not really seeing and is why I did the comparison I did.  The ASC is perhaps a little more top-heavy, but head-to-head the SCAC was 10-7 vs. the ASC this year, and two of the ASC wins were against Millsaps.  None of the SCAC teams played Schreiner.  I think (not sure about this one) that in inter-conference play between tournament qualifiers, the conferences split 5-5.

I could do the same comparison between UTD and UMHB to take the inter-conference thing out of it.  Even though their record is not as good, I think UTD is a stronger candidate than UMHB because their SOS is really good (and probably a better candidate than Hendrix as well).  And UTD beat UMHB head-to-head.  So I guess I'm simply saying that either HC is underrated or UMHB is overrated.

Quote from: Ralph Turner on February 25, 2010, 12:40:50 AM

IMHO, in the minds of the committee, I think that Hendrix is ranked about "7th or 8th".

I'm figuring they've got to be 7th, and based on the comparison to UMHB im guessing that there's not a lot of difference between 3rd and 7th,  so what happens this weekend in Pineville and Jackson is going to have a lot to do with what happens in the end.

Quote from: Wes Anderson on February 24, 2010, 03:35:10 PM
Because the math isn't the only criterion. The region rankings give us a good idea about what the NCAA thinks about all the criteria.

Look at what Hendrix has not done in regards to all the criteria. I hate to sound too critical while trying to explain the selection process, but there just isn't anything in the other criteria besides the math that makes Hendrix a good candidate. If Hendrix had a great OWP & SOS, then maybe. But even that isn't that good. They have no wins vs ranked teams. They don't have a great region record.  Hendrix did not return to the region rankings this week, which seals their fate as far as I'm concerned. They must win 3 this weekend.

Wes - Hard to argue with your conclusion, but just for the sake of discussion, let's compare HC and UMHB.  They should be pretty comparable - HC is the weaker of the two division champs in the SCAC and UMHB is the weaker of the two division champs in the ASC.  I'm using the selection criteria published on d3hoops:

In region W-L:  HC 17-4 (.81), UMHB 19-5 (.792)   Slight advantage HC

OWP:  HC .507, UMHB .492
OOWP:  HC .511, UMHB .504
SOS:  HC .508, UMHB .496   Big advantage HC (50 slots ahead of UMHB according to d3hoops)

vs. in-region ranked:  HC 0-2, UMHB 3-1 Big advantage UMHB (HC hurt here by Trinity's late-season semi-slump).

vs. in-region common op:  HC 5-2, UMHB 3-2  Advantage HC

no head-to-head

So HC is ahead of UMHB in all criteria except record vs. in-region ranked.  How does that make UMHB #4 in the region (and a strong candidate for a C) and Hendrix nowhere (and not really a candidate for a C)?

Hendrix holds off Austin 64-59 to clinch #1 in the west.  HX lead pretty much wire to wire, but never by much (biggest lead was 9).  AC got within 2 in the last minute but couldn't catch up.

Austin's coach was not in the building for some reason.

Quote from: pbrooks3 on February 19, 2010, 07:42:56 PM
I hold to my original post - DePauw is the only at-large possibility from the SCAC this year; honestly think they'll win it all and this will become a mute point.

The only SCAC team other than DePauw with any shot at an at-large at this point is Hendrix, and I think they probably need to get to the tournament final or else they have no chance at all.

And congrats to Millsaps - the conference website is showing that they beat Colorado College.  A tough season any way you look at it, but at least they didn't go 0 for the season.

Quote from: Blaster on February 17, 2010, 05:59:40 PM
Wow, the third regional rankings are in and HX wins two more games and gets kicked out of the rankings???  I guess coaches will have to try to run up the score on opponents instead of trying to get as many girls playing time as possible.  I like seeing girls who practice all week get an opportunity to play some.  This sends the signal that you have to kick someone when they are down.  Not sending the right message in my opinion.  If they take HX out at least put AC in.  SCAC deserves 1 rep in the rankings.

Some of this is just math.  HC's OWP took a pretty good hit on Saturday when they played 0-20whatever Millsaps.  As Wes pointed out, one of the teams ahead of them (Mississippi College) has already taken a loss since the current rankings were done, and another team in front of them (either Howard Payne or UMHB) is guaranteed to take a loss this coming weekend.  Plus it's a decent to good OWP weekend for Hendrix since they get Austin and CC.  Of course, they've got to win both.

Quote from: Wes Anderson on February 17, 2010, 10:08:52 PM
EDIT: I'm beginning to wane on a second SCAC team's chances.  Hendrix's S.O.S and OWP are terrible.  Austin's aren't all that much better.  While there's still a lot of ball left to play, even if one of the two gets back up to 4th or 5th in the region, it's going to be tough to have their name called on Selection Sunday right now.  The good news is UMHB, HPU, Miss Coll, & Louisiana Coll all have worse S.O.S. & OWP's than either of the SCAC contenders.

Hendrix is probably marginal for an at-large bid.  I think they probably do it if they win out up until the SCAC finals and lose to DePauw if it's respectable.  Any slip up before next Sunday in Jackson and they're done.  Like you say, the ASC teams that may be competing with HC for a spot aren't in great shape either.  The school with the best SOS/OWP that nobody's talking about but prob ought to watch is UTD.

Quote from: Blaster on February 09, 2010, 11:41:46 PM
Is Birmingham Southern eligible to participate in the conference tournament this year?  I know they were "provisional" last year.

No.  Not eligible until year after next.

Quote from: pbrooks3 on February 08, 2010, 08:02:47 PM

Quote from: Ron Boerger on February 07, 2010, 05:35:05 PM
Unfortunately that was before Hendrix beat Trinity, so for TU it's probably win the tourney or stay home.   But next year ... basically everyone is back.  

I see it as DePauw and one other, and that one is either Trinity or Hendrix depending on who finishes strong. If neither plays well these final 2 weeks and drops an opening round SCAC tournament game, I think DePauw is probably the only one that dances. I'm assuming DePauw runs the table in the SCAC which I am predicting will happen. If DePauw loses in the SCAC tournament, we'll have a guaranteed 2 teams.

You're right, DePauw is in absent a direct meteor hit on Greencastle.  I'm not sure there'll be a second team unless somebody takes out DePauw in the tournament.  Hendrix probably makes it if they don't lose again til the conference finals (and maybe if they don't lose again until the semis).    I don't see Trinity (or Austin or Centre) making it unless they win out through the tournament.  Each of them has 6 or 7 losses and would get one more in the conference tournament in the scenario in which they don't win the conference tournament.  As Ralph says, the South is a bit weaker this year and I don't think a 7 or 8 loss team from the South gets in - Trinity was 20-8 last year and didn't get there.

And it's not that Hendrix is head and shoulders above the latter three, they've just got a better profile because of their record.  The best thing Hendrix did was beat Centre - gives them the head-to-head over Centre and neither Trinity or Austin was able to do it.  Sweeping Trinity doesn't hurt either.

Quote
Really outstanding win for Hendrix. I think it's hard to overlook what a tremendous job McCracken is doing with this team. On paper, the Lady Warriors probably don't receive the cred of a DePauw, Trinity or even an Austin. But this team has a collective heart of gold & a passion to go toe-to-toe nightly against anyone. The Centre Colonels played Hendrix tough and actually exposed the Warriors' less than stellar ball-handling prowess (26 turnovers), but in the end this team turned the tables on Centre & gutted it out with great defense & solid rebounding to pick up the win. Bylar is flat-out unspectacular, but a gritty winner. Everyone knows her role on this team.

Actually HC did well without Byler last night.  In any tight game like this you can point to any number of things that won or lost the game, but you could argue that Hendrix won the game in the last 13 minutes of the first half.  Byler went to the bench with 2 fouls with 13 minutes and change left in the half and stayed there the remainder of the half.  In that period, Hendrix turned a 4 point deficit into a 4 point halftime lead.  Had Trinity been able to stretch that lead with Byler on the bench....

On the other hand, Byler scored the last 5 points for HC - a 3 with a minute or so left that pulled them within one and then the two free throws at the end.  And she earned the free throws by busting her butt for an offensive board and getting hammered on the ensuing shot.

Trinity had a nice look from 5 or 6 feet right at the buzzer but missed.

Quote from: pbrooks3 on February 05, 2010, 05:47:12 PM

A good one at Trinity this evening with Trinity defeating Hendrix by 6

Well you were half right and very close to dead on.  Hendrix won 71-70 after being down 6 with 2 minutes left.  Trinity missed a shot in the last couple of seconds that would have won it.

Helluva game though.  Biggest lead either way was 6-ish points.

Quote from: nash on February 03, 2010, 07:37:08 PM
Ralph,
The regional polls came out and LC is #5 while Hendrix is #2.  MC beat Hendrix easily and I don't understand how they can be #2 in the region.  I am afraid the the ASC is going to get screwed this year for tournament bids  because the conference is so even and if you don't win the conference tournament you won't get to go anywhere.  It seems parity in the ASC is going to restrict our opportunities for post season play.

I was at the MC - Hendrix game and I wouldn't say they beat Hendrix easily.  HC was up at halftime and MC lead most of the 2nd half, but the lead was maybe 3 to 7 points most of the way.  MC was clearly better that night primarily because Hendrix had no answer for MC's posts.  MC's post play was fabulous.

Agree that it's a surprise that Hendrix is ranked #2 in the region.  Sounds a bit high to me.  Got a link to the rankings?

Nevermind.  Found 'em.  Trinity fourth in the region is more of a surprise than Hendrix 2nd.  Not sure I see how either is ranked above LC.  Or UTD for that matter.

Quote from: Ralph Turner on February 03, 2010, 08:03:00 PM
But I know that this team only beat a quirky Ozarks team by 2.

Hendrix's starting point guard and backup point guard were both out that game - injured a couple of days before in Memphis.  Don't know how much that contributed.  HC is a bit quirky and inconsistent themselves.

Hendrix squeezes by Ozarks 75-73 at Ozarks.  Close game the entire way - best I remember Hendrix' biggest lead was 8 and Ozarks was 3, but don't hold me to it.  Hendrix blocked a 3 at the buzzer to lock it up.

Quote from: dpualum on November 09, 2009, 10:12:50 PM
Jenna Fernandez is back playing this season after missing last season.  The tigers look to be SCAC champion contenders returning 11 letter winners and bringing in a class of 10 solid freshman.  Word through the grape vine is this group of freshman have their stuff together and look to contribute. Look for the post play to be solid with all four seniors being post players.  Katie Matthews and Lauren Goff should contribute in the guard court as well. They lost a big one tonight to Butler in an Exhibition but it is early in the season. Despite the loss they came ahead on the boards, which is their strength. Give these girls another week to get their offense together and they should have a strong showing in St. Louis at the Tip-Off Tournament.

Damn.  10 freshmen on top of 11 returning lettermen (letterwomen? letterpersons?).  Is Depauw attempting to insure that everyone else sucks by cornering the market on players?  Or did you intend to post this on the soccer board?

Quote from: Ron Boerger on November 09, 2009, 12:18:32 AM

Trinity's new web site has the '09-'10 roster posted and nowhere to be seen is last year's starting PG, Danielle Hubenak. 

Late last season, Coach Bradley told me that she was going to lose 2 off of her then-current roster for this season.  One graduating and one going to study abroad.

Obviously, KPM was the graduate.  Perhaps Hubenak was the player going abroad.  It's the only reason I can think of as to why she wouldn't be there.

Quote from: Ron Boerger on October 26, 2009, 12:04:49 PM
The only player TU graduated was KPM.   She's going to be hard to replace, true, but the other four starters are all back per the TU web site. 

Trinity brought in five freshmen (sorry, no details yet); eight of ten from last year's team are back.   Further details here.  Don't know that I would say that makes them favorites, but with so much youth on the team and only one senior this year (Alexandra Blake) the future looks good. 

Trinity only lost one (as did Hendrix), but the one they lost was a really, really good one.  A lot of points and a lot of rebounds headed off to med school.

Similar to Colorado College - they only lost one too but what a one they lost, which is why CC will probably struggle to even qualify for the conference tourney this year.

I'm not saying that Trinity won't compete for the conference championship, as they're gong to be very good.  I was merely trying to say that whatever gap existed between Trinity on the one hand and Hendrix/Centre on the other has probably closed some.  Both Hendrix and Centre also have four starters back, and included among those four starters are their leading rebounders and scorers from last year.

If I had to rank the top four in the conference coming in, I'd say Depauw, Centre, Trinity, Hendrix in that order, with a fairly big gap between #1 and #2 and right now I'd throw a blanket over #2-#4.  If one of those four come up with a contributing freshman or two or suffers a key injury, the order could change.

Of course, the d3hoops voters don't agree with me either, and as always I reserve the right to be wrong.