Will third time as the number one seed be a charm for the EMU Royals?  They are overdue to win the tournament with 2004 being the last outright win.  That year they had a first-round bye and advanced to the sweet-sixteen with a last-second shot to beat CNU.  I'd like to see them surpass that this year.  Go Royals! VWC is athletic and will represent a challenge, but EMU's depth should win out. 

Quote from: hasanova on February 27, 2015, 10:26:20 AM

Quote from: algernon on February 27, 2015, 09:00:56 AM
Well, RMC and VWC are both certain Pool C bids, so they've won enough games already to know they're going to the NCAA Tournament.  Guilford and EMU will not advance to the NCAAs without winning the ODAC.

I agree ... this is the way it shapes up.

If karma has anything to do with it, EMU would finally beat RMC after being beaten three times by them in 2011.  Those losses kept our returning seniors who had made it to the elite 8 in 2010 from being selected as the third team from the ODAC.  This was despite being ranked in the top 20 nationally!  I hate the regional rankings that are used to select Div III teams.  No one would use that approach in Div I basketball or else only 2-3 teams would qualify from the power conferences like the ACC and Big East. If both EMU and Guilford upset the higher seed in the semis, the ODAC would be guaranteed three in the NCAA and should, but won't, get four.

Quote from: hasanova on February 19, 2012, 05:38:37 PM

Quote from: HSCDad on February 18, 2012, 04:04:23 PM
Guilford falls in OT 62-61

If Guilford had hit some free throws at the end, they should have won - 11 of 20 is not good enough!  Also, from a shooting standpoint, Gabriel Lowder had one of his worst games in a long time.  With all that said, however, congratulations to EMU.

Thanks for the congrats.  EMU probably needed a win more than Guilford given our young team and number of losses at the buzzer this season.  Pittman had a last second shot that bounced off the rim.  If he had made it, it would have been at least the fifth last-second loss by EMU this season.  At EMU's Yoder Area I watched RMC hit a game-clinching bucket guarded and back of the key so I didn't take this one for granted until the buzzer sounded!  The end result, we get to host Bridgewater for the rubber match between rivals where regular season records mean nothing. It should be a good one with the chance to meet 2nd seed RMC to see if they can beat us three times again this season as they did last season when we both had more experienced teams that could compete at the national level.  Go Royals!

How'd EMU get the tie-break over E&H since they split? 

Quote from: Titan Q on February 28, 2011, 11:59:14 PM

Quote from: y_jack_lok on February 28, 2011, 01:49:45 PM
Looking at the broader picture, it raises the question for me of why Illinois Wesleyan at 19-8 got a Pool C bid and EMU didn't. Would be interesting to see the comparative OWP and OOWP for the two teams. I can't believe IWU's is significantly higher than EMU's, if it's higher at all.

Two thoughts here...

#1
I think somewhere since your post this has been covered, but to clarify, we know that Eastern Mennonite was never even discussed by the national committee -- because Ferrum never made it off the board from the South, and we know EMU was regionally ranked behind Ferrum.  

Assuming IWU was the last Pool C in (#18), these were the teams at the table at the very end...

(In-region winning %/In-region SOS/Record vs ranked teams)

* Illinois Wesleyan (MW): .692/.543/2-2
* St. Joseph's LI (Atl): .769/.504/3-4
* Stevens (E): .731/.512/2-2
* Wabash (GL): .760/.499/4-3
* Leb Valley (Mid Atl): .720/.509/2-3
* Eastern Conn (NE): .680/.526/1-6
* Ferrum (S): .800/.471/1-3
* Carleton (W): .750/.528/5-4


EMU not getting in has absolutely nothing at all to do with Illiinois Wesleyan (or Wittenberg or Hanover or any other Pool C selected).  They never got on the board.

#2
You inquired about strength of schedule (SOS).   Here are the SOS numbers for the 18 Pool C teams that got selected:

1. UW-River Falls: .585
2. Williams: .558
3. Ithaca: .547
4. Illinois Wesleyan: .543
5. Hanover: .542
6. Western Conn: .531
7. WPI: .516
8. Mary Hardin-Baylor: .508
9. Oswego St: .507
10. Ramapo: .507
11. Va Wesleyan: .506
12. Becker: .505
13. Gwynedd-Mercy: .502
14. Concordia: .501
15. Wittenberg: .486
16. Texas-Dallas: .485
17. Penn St-Behrend: .481
18. Amherst: .464

SOS figures for the top two regionally ranked South teams not selected...

#6 Ferrum: .471
#7 Eastern Mennonite: .499


(All data referenced in this post can be found here - http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3)

Having Ferrum on the boards ahead of EMU doesn't make sense when EMU beat Ferrum head-to-head.  The emphasis on region rankings is plain wrong.  The South Region teams avoided playing EMU.  If Ferrum and NC Wesleyan had played more games in the ODAC they would have had more losses, too.  Hampden Sydney, Guilford,  and Randolph were difficult wins.  HSC and Guilford will likely be contenders next year.

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on February 28, 2011, 02:55:35 PM

Quote from: nescac1 on February 28, 2011, 02:40:42 PM
I think the four brackets are as balanced as I can recall.  Whitworth and Wooster in one, Williams, Amherst, VWU in a second, Stevens Point, Augustana, St. Thomas in a third, and Middlebury and Randolph-Macon in the fourth ... sets up at least the possibility of an Elite Eight with all top-ten caliber teams, which is pretty unusual.  It seems like most years there is a top-notch team with an easy path to the Final Four, but not this year, although I do like the chances of Amherst (despite playing on the road), Whitworth, Augustana, and Midd to make the Elite Eight. 

I agree that EMU got the shaft.  An elite eight team, with everyone back, who puts up a fairly guady record in a top-four conference, without any really bad losses, they should be in for sure. 

I agree about EMU, but (despite the howls of anguish all around the boards) note that every single thing you mentioned (excepts arguably the gaudy record) applies equally to IWU.

BTW, I also agree that this is the best balance of brackets I can ever recall. 

If you were playing in the ODAC you would cry foul!  Note that 4 teams got in from the ODAC last year and all 4 made it to the sweet 16.  VA Wesleyan-16; EMU-8; Guilford and RMC -final 4.  The ODAC deserved at least 3 bids.  With 7 seniors back from the final 4 team, why is it a surprise that RMC beat EMU 3 times.  EMU had all 5 seniors back from the elite 8 and despite a slow start they were on a nine-game winning streak when RMC ended it in the tournament semis.  Talk about Hot!  Also note that EMU beat VA Wesleyan the one time they played them at home, and they repaid Randolph and W&L with decisive victories at home to make up for their earlier losses.   Someone needs to add the national rankings to the mix so teams like #11 EMU and #16 Wabash aren't left at home. 

Quote from: rmc1982 on February 28, 2011, 01:37:10 PM

Quote from: stillfamily on February 28, 2011, 01:33:13 PM
RMC got screwed, VWC is hosting and EMU is at home....... WOW how do they do it? Good luck to the ODAC, and great season for EMU. EMU is 47-10 in the last two seasons, that is nothing to be upset about.

For the record alot of the rest of us think the EMU's got hosed too!! This NCAA selection committee needs it's collective head examined!!

I feel bad for the 5 EMU seniors who led the team back to a 21-5 record, including a win against VA Wesleayan.  I would put 3rd place in the ODAC this year up against any of the other conference winners, but the ODAC got disrespected despite having all 4 of last year's qualifiers get into the sweet 16.  That should say something about how strong the ODAC is!  Our #6 HSC beat the autoqualifier NC Wesleyan handily!

Bracketology said: If one of my projected Pool C winners fails to get selected, they'll probably be replaced with one of these "Left on the Board" teams. These are the top teams in each region that had not yet been selected. The only team not on the list above that may still have a breath of life come Monday is Eastern Mennonite. They have a decent resume, but I don't think they've done much to separate themselves from Texas-Dallas or Ferrum.


I disagree:
Eastern Mennonite ended 21-5 with big wins over VA Wesleyan and Ferrum in the South Region.  All losses were in the ODAC.  Three of their losses  came to Randolph Macon who return almost everyone from their final-4 run last year.  The ODAC deserves 3 teams in the tournament.  Last year three made it to the elite 8, including Eastern Mennonite who lost to Guilford at Guilford.  No one from the South wanted to schedule with EMU since they returned all five starters from their elite 8 run last year, thus they had to play PA and NAIA schools.

Quote from: bossman on February 25, 2011, 10:00:20 PM
EMU survives to fight another day. THey blew a 16 point first half lead and HS-C Shoots lights out in 2nd half.....Eli Crawford gets the game winning stick back on a 3rd offensive rebound ina row with 1.8 seconds to go. WOW
The ODAC better wrangle their officials up and tell them to blow the whistle a little bit. only 22 fouls called all game. Could have gotten more than just George Johnson hurt in this one!!! Unacceptable.

That was a huge turn-around when George Johnson got hammered and HSC scored on a dunk to end the half!  It gave them momentum and reduced a key scoring and play-maker threat to one good leg.  EMU was fortunate to survive along with stepped up play by Hinson and Crawford.  Phillips was sub-par for him but still delivered some key threes when needed to take away HSC's momentum and lead.  I'll still take that kind of consistent no-call officiating over giving the ball to RMC and fouling out Phillips with no time on the clock and a tie score last year in the semis! 

Quote from: algernon on February 22, 2011, 08:27:00 AM
$5 tickets required for the games tonight.  At HSC, there's a free "child" policy that allows anyone of college age or younger to get in free!

HSC's lineup of teams seems set up until the semifinal game, if they can win the first two games and get that far.  The lineup will be Emory and Henry tonight, EMU on Friday, and almost certainly Randolph-Macon on Saturday.  Although it's theoretically possible that Roanoke or Bridgewater could beat RMC on Friday night, this season's results suggest it's extremely unlikely.  In two games against Roanoke, the Yellow Jackets won by an AVERAGE point margin of 35 points!  And, in their only game against Bridgewater, the Yellow Jackets won by 36 points.

If the Tigers can get to the championship game, there's no telling who they might face .... VWC's the favorite, but Guilford's certainly got a good shot, and I wouldn't entirely rule out Randolph.

For tonight, I'm going with the higher seeds and betting on wins by Hampden-Sydney, Roanoke, and Lynchburg. 

It's fairly safe to go with the higher seeds, especially with home court advantage.  Gaining home court advantage makes the reg season games meaningful, as does gaining a first-round bye for the top 5 seeds.  The ODAC is becoming like the Big 10 where I went to grad school and worked for 16 years.  Home court is a huge advantage and even the best teams struggle to win away games (note Ohio State this year).  I'm glad that we play most of our ODAC tournament on a neutral court since it  evens the playing field.  Having it at the site of the National Championships is an added bonus that we should thank the good people in Salem for hosting. 

Quote from: algernon on February 17, 2011, 12:12:43 PM
So EMU would have the following points if they lose to Guilford on Saturday:

Virginia Wesleyan W = same as Guilford's Virginia Wesleyan W
Randolph-Macon 2L = 0 points, whereas Guilford would have 1/2*(50 to 55, depending on outcome of VWC's and RMC's games)
Randolph 1-1 = same as Guilford's Randolph 1-1
Hampden-Sydney W = 30 to 35, depending on outcome of HSC's and Randolph's games, whereas Guilford gets 0 points for losing only encounter vs. HSC.
Lynchburg W = same as Guilford's Lynchburg W
Roanoke W = same as Guilford's Roanoke W
Washington and Lee 1-1 = same as Guilford's Washington and Lee 1-1
Bridgewater 2W = same as Guilford's Bridgewater 2W
Emory and Henry 2W = same as Guilford's Emory and Henry 2W

It appears to me that EMU will win the tie-breaker, under the point system, and is assured of no lower than the 3rd seed, whereas Guilford is firmly entrenched as the #4 seed, regardless of the outcome of Saturday's games ..... so I think I'll again modify my earlier post, hasa 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kenleen says:
I think Guilford is a must-win Saturday for EMU to get into the NCAA tournament unless they win the ODAC tournament.  EMU played too many PA and NAIA schools to be highly ranked in the South Region even though they are top 14 in the D3Hoops rankings and beat Ferrum and VA Wesleyan Head-to-Head.  With all 5 starters back from their elite 8 finish last year, it would be a huge disappointment for the EMU SR 5 to be sitting and watching after the ODAC tournament but it could happen since they appear to be a bubble C-Qualifying Team.

Quote from: bossman on February 14, 2011, 09:13:37 PM
EMU leads from the tip and soundly handles the Marlins in Hburg 86-71. Dont look now but EMU seems to be hitting their stride here late in the season. Preseason All American Todd Phillips goes off to the tune of 22 pts 11 rebs and 5 assists. Pancione and Johnson each poured in 18 and Crawford chips in 11 pts and 8 boards for the Runnin' Royals. Wesleyan was led by Woodmore (Woodmore is the real deal for the Marlins, knocked down some big shots with a hand in his face multiple times) with 18 and Vaughn with 10. Teasley struggled going 3-16 from the field finishing with only 9.

When EMU plays tough D they can stay with anyone in the league, or in the country.  We obviously can't look past W&L who beat us on the road and then facing Guilford on the road to get the #3 seed.  If that happens, the #3 EMU vs #6 HSC could be the toughest quarter final game anywhere in the country.  If EMU pulls through, their nemesis RMC likely awaits them in the ODAC semis.  That would be sweet to see EMU pull one out there.  Ideally there won't be a last second whistle to put Macon on the line like last year! As we've seen, anything can happen in the ODAC tournament!

We would have preferred to host at EMU where we are 13-0 this season, but we can't complain about the opportunity to play on a familiar court.  It's nice to know that some ODAC fans will pull for us against Whitworth.  I will cheer for Guilford against Wooster so if EMU gets past Whitworth  to face Guilford at least one ODAC team makes it back to Salem.  After that last second foul shot by Randolph Macon beat us in the ODAC semis, I'd most like an EMU-RMC rematch in the national championship game.  But that's for another week!

Where do you think EMU and Guilford will end up playing?  Who is most likely to host?