Based on watching only a few games this season and proven record of not being able to predict games, I am going to forecast that IWU is going to fall to Milliken in a major upset. I do not think IWU is that good; they played well-above their talent level to win so many this year, a real compliment to their coach. However, if they lose, IWU will get an at-large bid. Carthage will beat Wheaton, and Carthage will beat Milliken in the final. If IWU does manage to get by Milliken, I expect the Wheaton/Carthage winner to get the conference bid.

I caught most of the Loras - Elmhurst game; it was a competitive, enjoyable game that showed both the strengths and weaknesses of Elmhurst. While EC did manage a 9 - 2 record before conference begins next week, they were helped by having 8 home games and one game at a neutral site. Moreover, they played a number of games against very, very weak opponents. Friday's contest was a good test for EC.

By the way, after the Friday victory, Loras is 6-5. Both teams have played Coe; Elmhurst beat team; Loras lost. Both beat Edgewood, but Elmhurst thrashed them; Loras won by a small margin. Loras also lost to Dominican narrowly and Carthage by a wider margin. Loras played other quality opponents, including Washington University, losing by only 5. Overall, Loras appears to be getting better as January nears. With so much weak opponents, it is hard to tell with EC. They could have used some more quality opponents.

Elmhurst has a host of offensive weapons; it is much more than just Merklein scoring 19 per game; she had 21 vs. Loras; she needs a small crack to get up a very good shot. Overall, the team is shooting a very respectable 36% from 3-land and 44% overall. Megan Ney, the other senior, is steady and averaging 8 per game. Tess Godhardt is averaging 11 (she had 14 vs. Loras). Devin Vaughn is averaging 8.5 (she had a career-high 22 vs. Loras).  Jordan Maisto is the other starter, averaging about 4. Fiona McMahon comes off the bench, averaging 7.5. These 6 get most of the playing time, and that lack of depth could be an issue in some conference games, but does not have to be.

While EC is a coordinated offensive unit, a very good one, they remain spotty on defense, often giving up many easy baskets. Mobile post players often give the 3s, 4s, and 5s on EC fits. Help often arrives too late. Moreover, EC gave up 15 offensive rebounds on Friday. This is pretty typical; opponents average 14 offensive rebounds vs. EC. Loras also won the battle of loose balls on Friday.

Could EC make the CCIW playoffs. If they can raise their defensive intensity. Absolutely. However, that is a big if. Best of luck to EC. Happy New Year to all.

I was at the Elmhurst game last night; they played Rockford at home. When I walked in the door, there was 17 minutes left in the half, and Elmhurst was up 9-0. With 13 minutes left, it was 20-0. Almost everything was coming from the inside, mostly easy baskets (think of layups in warmups). With 12 and half minutes left, Rockford finally scored. Still, Elmhurst smartly kept going inside and scoring literally at will. With three minutes left in the half, Elmhurst was up 24. I was planning on leaving at the intermission. Then, Elmhurst stopped playing defense, and Rockford scored the final ten points of the half, the last two clearly coming after the buzzer. (Why the other two refs did not confer with the official that called the shot good is a mystery to me. This is typical in college.) At the half, the score was 36-22. Tess Godhardt for Elmhurst had 15 points on 7-8 (inside shots); Merklein had 7. There were just 9 threes attempted by the two teams; Elmhurst made 1-3, Rockford was 0-6. There was only 10 fouls called, 5 on each team. The low number probably had something to do with the general lack of defense by both teams. Rockford, which has struggled this year with a very thin team (i.e., not many players in total and few that can score), showed me something in those final minutes, and I decided to stay a while longer. Believe it or not, Rockford whittled the lead down to 10 with 18 minutes left. That was it. They never got any closer. The final score was 61-46. The second half was essentially a draw. As in the first half, most of the points came from the inside.

For the game, Tess Godhardt had 21. Merklein (who played 37 minutes) and Ney both netted 12. Fiona McMahon was force on the defensive boards, taking down 13. While I have not watched much basketball this year, it appears that Elmhurst can clearly score in multiple ways. When January arrives, they will clearly have to improve their defense, especially in the interior, if they plan on making the playoffs.

I did catch the first half of the Coe-Elmhurst game. Elmhurst was incredible in the first half offensively. It moved the ball extremely well (extraordinarily well for a first game) and shot the eyes out. It was 4-8 on its 3s and even better on its 2s, i.e., many easy inside shots. Merklein gave Coe fits, but Elmhurst had 9 that scored in the first half alone. Unfortunately, the defense was not as impressive, particularly the interior defense, an area that has plagued Elmhurst for years. Elmhurst led by 10 at half when I left. I understand the lead got up to 17 with 17 minutes left. Elmhurst let that lead drop to 1 (of course, just to make it interesting) with 3 minutes left before it began to play again. The final score was 78-70 in favor of Elmhurst. For the game, Elmhurst hit 7-14 on its 3s.

A couple of random thoughts. In the ESPN preseason NCAA Division I men's poll for last season (2010-11), the eventual champion, University of Connecticut, cannot be found anywhere, even in the category of others receiving votes. Also a year ago, preseason polls had MSU as number 2 behind Duke. MSU finished 19-15 and were lucky to make the tournament. Predicting NCAA Division III, with a lot less information available, has to be much more difficult. Good luck to anyone that tries.

With this in mind (lol), I will give my thoughts on the CCIW women (2011-12) this season. Be warned, I openly admit that almost all of you regular bloggers know a lot more than I do about current rosters. I expect Millikin and IWU to fight it out with Carthage and Wheaton following. I suspect the difference between the top 4 teams and the bottom 4 will be substantial even though a couple of the bottom teams seem to making positive strides.

I would also like to comment on IWU's basketball schedule. IWU typically schedules very tough opponents for their pre-CCIW games, at least for the last several years; it is not just this year. Every year, I get the impression that Mia Smith's primary focus is not just on making the tournament by winning the CCIW, she is aiming to be national D3 champions. It seems pretty clear that she believes that tough opponents throughout the season help get her team ready. Keep in mind that this year's schedule was made a couple of years ago.

Good luck to all the teams, coaches and players.

To all the CCIW women basketball followers, I am back on the sidelines as an assistant (again). Having a great time, but unfortunately, with a 30-game season, I will not be watching many CCIW games this season. I will miss both the games and the discussions. Sounds like, for the first time in a long time, IWU is not a lock to go to the tournament. With more parity, it should be quite exciting. Have fun.

While it was foregone conclusion, it is now official. Wheaton did not make it. To step back a bit, while it was a more competitive CCIW this year, I did not believe that it was an especially great year for the conference overall versus the rest of the D3 powers. There have been years where two CCIW teams clearly deserved to go to the tournament more so than this year (and did not). Good luck to IWU.

Bracket can be found at:
http://www.ncaa.com/brackets/basketball-women/d3/2011

Thanks for the info. I did not realize. Quite an edge to get so many home games in tournament run. Obviously, the economics of the Shirk Center with its large capacity and strong fan base is compelling at the D3 level.

The final four for DIII Women this year is at the Shirk Center on March 18-19. I do not know the rules, but I would guess that they will be on the road before that. Hard to imagine that one team would be allowed to play four games at home. Anyway, congratulation to the entire IWU team and good luck.

Thanks Roger. I did not mean to lambast the CCIW in particular. Pretty much all basketball conferences at all levels do it the same way. The NBA is similar. How much recognition does Shane Battier get? Every night, he guards the best players in the NBA; he consistently forces 'stars' into uncharacteristically low shooting percentages and high turnovers. At least, the NBA does have an all-defensive team; it is also pretty good about acknowledging great point guards, even those who do not score much.

Let the games begin.

I stand by my earlier blog -- these CCIW all-star teams are about as interesting as an NBA all-star game. Basketball is a team game, and these CCIW top groupings are about individuals, more specifically players with certain offensive skills. Forget defense or anything else intangible – such qualities are largely irrelevant  in being selected by the CCIW.

For the record, I feel bad for Roxie Jones; she deserved better. However, if the CCIW and other conferences must publish such lists, why not at least make a half-hearted attempt at selecting all-around players on the lists. What about the player, who consistently causes the player that they are guarding to shoot poorly or make more turnovers than normal; what about the player who can anticipate and provide consistent help to their teammates. What about the point guard, who quarterbacks both the offense and defense; who gets players where they belong; who always plays very smart? Frequently, such players are the critical glue to winning. Yet, if they do not average 10 points or more and shoot high percentages from the field or rebound well, they are not even considered.

There was a team in the CCIW, not that long ago that did extremely well. They returned four starters who all got lots of recognition (First team, etc.). The only player that did not come back was their senior point guard; she got no recognition by the CCIW. Yet, that team, despite being injury-free the next season, had a very mediocre season; they needed that point guard real bad. Why wasn't she, with her mediocre points per game and so-so shooting percentages on the CCIW's 1st, 2nd or 3rd teams?

Finally, to continue to demonstrate my inability to predict basketball. I expect Millikin despite its inconsistencies throughout this season as well as two previous loses to Wheaton, to upset Wheaton in a close game. Despite Carthage's victory at IWU, I expect IWU to crush Carthage and then roll over Millikin.

More than you want to know.

The rules and regulations about this year's D3 selection can be found at:
http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/connect/0312ac804564e6d699f1df90a48a4ecb/DIIIWBB_Handbook_2.3.11.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=0312ac804564e6d699f1df90a48a4ecb

Other years can also be found through the usual searches.

For the past few years, including this year, there have been 20 at-large bids. In other words, 64 teams now make the tournament; 43 are conference champions who make it automatically; 1 is expected to be independent, leaving the precious few vacancies.

Bottom line: if you do not make the tournament automatically, your team better be very very good, and you better hope that all the other great teams in your region make it automatically, reducing your competition.

In other words, if IWU beats Wheaton in the championship game, Wheaton, having lost to IWU three times and without many 'big' wins on their resume along with an uncomfortably high 6 loses, should do a lot of praying.

I caught the video of the Millikin-Carthage game and attended the Elmhurst-Wheaton game. The second half of the earlier game was definitely a kick (it even included a fire alarm, a false one, at half-time). For Elmhurst fans, it surely was a roller coaster for those final 20 minutes, with a horrific conclusion.

The score was tied at half-time in Wisconsin,  However, five minutes into the second half, Carthage raced to an 11-point lead, 47-36. Millikin, which seemed to have lost its mojo in recent games, finally found that special ingredient (called teamwork). Outscoring Carthage 15-2 over the next five minutes, they found themselves with a 2 point lead, 51-49, at the 10-minute mark. Five minutes later, Millikin increased their lead to 8, 60-52. From one extreme to the other. Wow. Carthage, which had scored just 5 points in 10 minutes rallied. Three times, at 2:17, at 1:26 and finally at 0:40 seconds left, Carthage took a one-point lead. Millikin had the answer each time. In the end, Millikin hit their final 8 free throws and played smart, earning a well-deserved and important 3-point victory.

For the game, Carthage hit an impressive 15 of 17 free throws, but it was paltry compared to Millikin's 25 out of 27. Amazing

No doubt, the final result took the starch out of Elmhurst that, up until that result, still saw a way, albeit a long route to the CCIW playoffs. As Roger aptly described, with both teams playing for nothing but pride, it was a pretty ugly game. It was fairly close from time to time, but Wheaton always seemed to be in control.

Congratulation to IWU, which I agree, put together another special group despite losing some key players from last year's team. They have had an incredible season (so far). Overall, it was an off-year for the CCIW. Millikin, Carthage, and especially Elmhurst have to be disappointed with their inconsistent play. To Wheaton's credit, they took advantage of the relatively weak CCIW play, doing well in conference. Other than being handled by IWU, they lost one game. I, for one, will be very surprised if IWU does not easily move ahead to the D3 tournament and does well there.

As far the MOP, I agree with John Wooden; such awards should not be given out. Basketball is a team sport. I would say the same about Coach of the Year. About 90+% of the time, this award goes to the coach with the best record. Often, another coach has done a lot more with a lot less. However, this year, if you must give out this award too, Mia Smith is clearly deserving.

I believe (emphasis on believe) that if Millikin beats Carthage, they will end up with the 3rd seed and Carthage the 4th seed, regardless of what happens when Elmhurst visits Millikin next week (Millikin's then 2-0 record vs. Carthage wins any tiebreaker). If Elmhurst loses at Wheaton and Millikin loses at Carthage, then Carthage will get the 3rd seed and Millikin will get the 4th seed. If Millikin loses to Carthage, and Elmhurst beats Wheaton, then the fourth seed will be determined by the Elmhurst at Millikin game (if Elmhurst wins, Elmhurst wins the second level of the tiebreaker; season series would be 1-1).

Three key games left, I believe. Elmhurst travels to Wheaton on Saturday; Elmhurst beat them handily at home, but Wheaton definitely had an off day. It will be much tougher for Elmhurst to win at Wheaton, but you never know. Wheaton does not really have much to play for in their final regular season game. Win or lose, they will undoubtedly be the second seed. Meanwhile, what is going on with Millikin; they have not looked good in recent games. Carthage should be the clear favorite as Millikin travels to Wisconsin on Saturday. So, Tuesday's Elmhurst at Millikin, the make up game due to the snowstorm on Groundhog day, might just be a critical battle for the 4th spot. Interesting.