In addition to Stroud seemingly taking a big step forward, the freshman class looks very promising. Nate Kwiecinski, Jack Gatjanis and Dan Civello all in the rotation immediately. Numbers aren't popping off the page after two games for that trio, but I've been impressed -- and they certain add some length and athleticism.

I think the last four freshman to start right out of the gate for Colby were Max Poulton, Will King, Noah Tyson, Matt Hanna, and now Nate Kwiecinski -- promising..

Long time no talk, glad to have the boards back!

Would definitely put Noah Tyson on the best players to never make all NESCAC (probably ahead of everyone mentioned so far). Won NESCAC ROY, winningest player at Colby in more than two decades, averaged 12.7 and 7.4 for his career and was one of the best defensive players in the league for four years. He was likely in the mix for a second team spot each of his four years.

On to this year -- what an unbelievable turnaround by the Ephs. They look like an entirely different team, even with all of the injuries they've faced. That has to be Cole Prowitt-Smith's best game in a Williams jersey against Oswego -- what a time for that. Nescac1 and SpringSt have done a great job highlighting everything, but I'd add a shoutout to Alex Stoddard for some of the recent success. He didn't shoot well against Oswego, but he brings a confidence, energy and quick trigger that the Ephs really need. And he played great in the NESCAC tournament and against DeSales.

I like Trinity's chances against Tufts -- the defense from Smith, Okorougo (he's a future star) and Dorion is impressive. And Vetter and Callahan-Gold can shoot it from anywhere.

Quote from: SpringSt7 on February 25, 2023, 03:28:21 PM
Two NESCAC championship appearances in three years. Well deserved.

Hopefully this one is less heartbreaking as a Colby fan: https://youtu.be/gDaYh3EmjUQ

Also, random note -- I did a quick look and I think Tufts today is the only team all year that didn't have a single player reach double digit points in a game. Even Bowdoin managed that in a couple of games when they didn't break 40.

The best game of the year in the biggest game of the year for Colby. The crazy part is they didn't even shoot it well from three, they just killed Williams with great passing to get tons of good looks in the paint. Will King was immense -- playing his best basketball in the final stretch of the season. If all league awards do include the Nescac tournament, I think he has a very good case for first team. He's such a unique player - not overly quick or athletic, but just plays at his own pace and throws off defenders with fakes and smarts. He had a wraparound pass to Lawson for a layup, and a drop off to Obi (that went off his hands and out of bounds because he didn't expect it) that were just next level passes.

Williams definitely didn't bring anything close to their A game, but the Colby defense was great -- Jack Lawson has played great against Williams both games defensively, not letting Karen get going inside. The first half in particular there just weren't many good looks allowed. Huge kudos to Damien Strahorn -- wonderful offensive and defensive execution for the Mules.

Surprise matchup in the finals tomorrow -- Colby played well against Hamilton a couple weeks back and beat them fairly easily, but the Hamilton team from today looks like a different beast. Going to be a fun one, with two teams fighting for an NCAA bid. Have said it a few times, but things could've gone a little sideways after an 0-4 league start, but this team has found an extra gear at the very best time.

That was a dominant first half, best defensive half of the season. Ephs will come out swinging in the second half I'm sure, but that wasn't just some hot shooting like Trinity last week -- that was just superior basketball.

Not over, but Ephs will have to play perfect now.

Quote from: SpringSt7 on February 22, 2023, 12:14:23 PM
Pasteur has the number of NESCAC bids set at 3.9. It seems like Wesleyan has a better chance of getting in than previously thought, but between them and the opportunities for Hamilton/Colby to play their way in, 4 is more likely than not at this point. Wesleyan's resume seems like it could get them in, but they will be hoping for as few bid thieves as possible. A Hamilton win over Tufts and an SOS bump from playing @ Williams could vault them in over Wesleyan. Colby would need a lot to go their way however.

https://twitter.com/d3bubble/status/1628433331737198593?s=20

Agreed. Seems that the recent regional rankings have valued SOS a bit more and WP% a bit less than Pasteur and some of the other prognosticators anticipated. This hurts Colby's case obviously to the point where a win at Williams likely doesn't get it done.

Every team has this to some degree, but Colby's SOS is primarily being driven down by Thomas and Castelton who are a combined 6-44 on the season. Can't really fault scheduling those as Thomas is the crosstown team in Waterville and Noah Tyson's mother is the AD at Castleton -- so that was scheduled as bit of a homecoming for Noah. Bates and Bowdoin being down also hurts Colby as those non-conference matchups typically can provide more of an SOS boost.

Still, going forward seems like scheduling as difficult as possible of a non-conference is the best way to go.

Would seem that a win over Williams gives Colby a good shot at getting in, while Hamilton probably needs to win the tourney to get in: https://twitter.com/d3bubble/status/1627506348442423296?s=46&t=oj83wDFek9GZUNSNQ--M5w

A few thoughts from yesterday. Great game. Colby kept hanging in only for Nicky Johnson or Gabe Ravetz to hit what seemed like a backbreaking shot. Johnson was absolutely unreal - shooting, passing and defensively, he had several excellent steals. Ravetz is just a tough shot maker and mostly had it going. Maccoux had an off game - he had a few good looks that he just couldn't get to go down.

For Colby, they just hung around and hung around until they were able to somehow tie it in a wild sequence at the end. Noah Tyson was spectacular on both ends, playing the full 45 minutes and finishing with 22 and 6 on 8/11 shooting. (Side note: Don't think it's possible to track this, but Tyson must average the most minute per game of any Nescac player for his career. He's been top 6 or better in the league in minutes per game all 4 years he's played.) Lucas Green kept the Mules in it with some hot shooting early in the second half, and Will King dished 12 assists and controlled the game down the stretch despite an off shooting game. Max Poulton struggled for the first 30 minutes of the game and then hit some huge buckets late and in OT.

Colby remains a tough out  and huge kudos to them for bouncing back from an 0-4 start in conference. The first Wesleyan game was really the only uncompetitive game all season. Big opportunity at Williams - Colby led by 9 midway through the second half on the road earlier this season, but the Ephs are back playing at an elite level of late, so will be a tough one.

Quote from: names jaismith on February 16, 2023, 12:29:19 PM
Agree with all these predictions.  If Conn's pg was playing it's a toss up, even in Clinton.  But he's not, so significant edge to Hamilton. Singh is the key for the Continentals, and he had a big game last time out. Trinity has been weirdly off kilter and is not going to be able to stay with an Ephs team that appears to have hit it's stride. I still think Colby's all-in for offense approach will not serve them well against a Wesleyan team that is fighting to remain in the post season picture.  Tufts-Midd the hardest one to predict except who wants to play a top 20 team right after they were upset?  Midd will have had the whole week to stew on what happened last Friday in New London and in front of a big crowd at home I expect they will prevail, although it would not surprise me if it was the closest game of the day.  Saturday's theme:  being at home in the NESCAC means a lot!

I will note that Wesleyan's defense has been worse statistically than Colby's -- both in conference and non-conference play. Not that either have been particularly good.

Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 13, 2023, 04:15:30 PM

Quote from: Colby Hoops on February 13, 2023, 10:25:21 AM
Kudos to the Mules for bouncing back from an 0-4 league start and now having a legitimate shot at the NCAA tourney. Wesleyan will be a tough matchup, but Colby has been playing very well of late (excluding a really rough shooting game at Tufts where they missed a ton of shots around the basket).

Colby hardly has a "legitimate shot" at the NCAA tourney unless you are considering winning 3 road games in a row for the Pool A spot. Drew has them as a 3% longshot to make the NCAAs and I don't imagine winning 2 and losing in the conference tourney final will be enough to get them a Pool C spot.

I'm hoping Wesleyan can sneak in with 2 wins and a final loss. They are in the "fringe" category with the 19th Pool C bid. A lot needs to happen for them to get in.

Middlebury, Williams and Tufts are locks/near locks. Wesleyan is a fringe team and Hamilton and Colby are long shots.

http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_men.html

Fair --  I meant more that if they win two and lose in conference championship game they have a shot. That's listed at 36% so maybe outside shot is better than legitimate.I think they have a reasonable path to doing that, as they wouldn't face williams or midd until the title game assuming Hamilton beats Conn. I would project Colby as slight underdogs to Wesleyan on the road and favored over Hamilton on a neutral court.

Edit: that might be wrong about second round matchup, I forgot they reseed.

Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on February 13, 2023, 12:33:18 PM

Quote from: nescac1 on February 12, 2023, 03:40:23 PM
Ryan, every year one NESCAC team gets the Friday-Sunday shaft.  It rotates every year - not ideal for the team whose turn it is.

I guess my question remains, why?  Is it a travel distance thing?  Why are the Sunday games necessary?

The idea is that there won't be such a significant rest advantage this way. The solo travel team would be playing a back-to-back every weekend against a team that didn't play the night before if they stuck with the Friday/Saturday schedule.

Looking forward to Colby-Wesleyan this weekend -- it's a shot at redemption for the Mules as it's really the only game all year where they weren't particularly competitive. Wesleyan and Middlebury are the 2 games that the Mules weren't either leading or tied at some point in the second half (and Midd is not only very good, but a particularly tough matchup for Colby).

Kudos to the Mules for bouncing back from an 0-4 league start and now having a legitimate shot at the NCAA tourney. Wesleyan will be a tough matchup, but Colby has been playing very well of late (excluding a really rough shooting game at Tufts where they missed a ton of shots around the basket).

Really it's Colby's best players playing a bit better. Noah Tyson has started to find his shooting stroke and Will King has been very good, and more aggressive as a scorer in a few games. If you look at the box scores Colby's shooting 42% on threes in their 5 wins and 31% in their 5 league losses -- so in some way it does just come down to making shots (obviously the quality of looks has been different in those games as well, but probably not enough to account for that large of a difference).

Wesleyan played Colby very well the first game, but they have struggled defensively and particularly allowing a high percentage from the 3 point line. I'd expect this game to be much higher scoring. Wesleyan is scary when Ravetz starts making shots, but they've also had some head scratchers including nearly losing to Bates over the weekend and losing to Amherst earlier this year.

Side note -- Amherst is a disaster, they had so many plays against Colby where they would just miscommunicate and throw the ball out of bounds. Some interesting players, but not pretty basketball.

If my tiebreaking math is correct, I think Colby-Wesleyan is a lock for next weekend. Either a 3 vs 6 or 2 vs 7 depending on the result tomorrow. Going to be an interesting tournament, a ton of parity amongst the top 8.

I think Johnson very clearly over Maccoux. Even if you think Johnson's assists are inflated, they would have to be absurdly inflated to move below second in the league in assists and he barely turns the ball over -- very impressive given his usage. In conference play Johnson is shooting an identical percentage to Maccoux, averages more rebounds, far more assists and they basically have the same number of turnovers. Johnson is also top 5 in the league in steals.

I get that tracking assists can be inconsistent, but I think there's generally not enough credit to the elite passers. Averaging 5.5+ assists in the Nescac happens about as often as averaging 19+ points -- and almost anyone who averages that many points makes all-league.

I don't really have strong opinions on all-league overall -- I think there's a lot of somewhat similar players after the top 2-3. I will say that I think there's too much focus on team success compared with individual success. Don't really think the whole "this team doesn't deserve two slots" holds a lot of merit -- it's basically just crediting players for having better or worse supporting casts.

On the coaching side that argument works, because these coaches are also the ones recruiting their team as well.