This WLAX pod is insane. Really looking forward to these games. DataCast has IWU as a 2pt dog and WashU as a 5.5 pt favorite of WLU. An IWU/WashU rematch would be tasty!

2019 NCC won their first Stagg and Gagliardi QB Broc Rutter was done and Cardinal fans were crying about the next year, which was Luke Lehnens freshman year. Boo hoo.....

Quote from: Titan Q on January 06, 2025, 03:14:22 PMCongratulations to North Central!

Here is a Q-cast interview with new IWU head coach Jared Williamson:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOKQMw1iSDo

Great interview Bob. Thanks for venturing to the "dark side" to post this. Now back to basketball....Wheaton almost pulled off the stunner at King Saturday.

Quote from: D3fanboy on January 06, 2025, 02:03:58 PM

Quote from: USee on January 06, 2025, 01:33:55 PMI don't think attendance factors much into location/date for the Stagg. Most college bowl games are sparsely attended and are in neutral sites.

the NCAA could not care less about the attendance of the Stagg Bowl, nor do they really care about the TV ratings.  The D3 championship is just part of an overall NCAA package.  However, the attendance matters a bit more to the host city.  Salem just does a much, much, much better job of attracting locals than Texas, Annapolis or Canton (I live there and never heard a peep marketing the Stagg Bowl here) and marketing the game/weekend.  Canton is the near perfect location for D3FB, but Salem is the much better spot for a Stagg Bowl experience imo.

Great point. The game puts a spotlight on the location. Certainly Salem and even Canton are more central for D3.

I don't think attendance factors much into location/date for the Stagg. Most college bowl games are sparsely attended and are in neutral sites.

Congratulations to North Central.

My pregame checklist and report card for a Mt Union win:

-100 yd rusher-after starting strong the running game faded and Echeverry finished with 87 yds
-Zero Turnovers--check. They were in it because of this
-Move the defensive front and create TFL--UMU had just 2 TFL and Rossy Moore had only 5 tackles for the game. He really wasn't a factor
-Take advantage of opportunities--after getting the early (and only) turnover and taking a 7-0 lead, Mt Union ended up 1-4 in the redzone.
-Tackle well-I though the Raiders did a great job tackling for the most part.
-Stay close through 3 quarters--1st team since last year's Stagg to do this but they couldn't finish.

The two biggest reasons Mt Union didn't complete the upset was their failure to capitalize on the opportunities they created in the redzone and their inability to disrupt NCC's offense with their athleticism on defense.

I understand the criticism of the coaching for the first failure (clock management, play calling, etc) but the second was definitively due to NCC being the better team and executing their plan. 

And my pregame focus for NCC to win:
-Run for 200 yds and Lehnen to throw for 200 on less than 20 attempts rushed for 197, Lehnen threw for 298 on 26 attempts
-Win turnover battle after the early fumble, NCC got 2 turnovers on downs as well as the end of half debacle, all of which ended Mt Union opportunities
-Get off the field on 3rd down The Cardinals held Mt Union to 5-13 on 3rd down, well below their season average
-Limit Raider run game After calling 11 runs in their first two drives and gaining 73 yds (6.6 ypc) NCC held UMU to just 34 more yds rushing on 17 more attempts (2.0 ypc). Mt called less than 10 runs in the 2H
-Keep their composure NCC was called for 6 penalties for 75 yds, most of them of the 15 yd variety including an ejection of Paradee for 2 taunting penalties. Mt Union couldn't capitalize.

NCC stuck with their plan. Mt Union stacked the box early to take away the run and Lehnen punished them through the air as the Raiders couldn't pressure him. Overall the NCC OL dominated the LOS with their pass protection and 2nd half running game. That and their defense limiting Echeverry is a big reason why they won.

I posted my Stagg preview of each team and the game in the CCIW chat for those interested.

As far as the game and my outlook:

I don't view the results so far as any kind of predictor for this game. North Central beating Susquehanna badly and Mt Union having a few close calls can be viewed a number of ways. Personally, Mt Union has played a much tougher schedule than North Central so far. The always tough OAC with JCU 2x, Carnegie Mellon and Hope both have top 20 defenses and JHU is a top 10 caliber team. North Central has dominated some good competition but they haven't been in any close games.

Talent wise I think these teams are overall pretty close. Lehnen is an X factor for NCC that Mt Union doesn't have and must figure out how to minimize in order to have a chance. I absolutely think Mt Union has the talent to win this game. They have a similar recipe for success in that they run the ball behind a veteran OL, have dynamic skill players and a lot of athleticism on defense. As most of us know, the best teams in the post season win the line of scrimmage. This game really turns on the performance up front by both teams.

Some interesting stats I found in the NCC game notes: over the last 44 games NCC is 43-1. In those 44 games they have scored more than 40+ points and are undefeated when they do. Only 3 times in 44 games have they had games decided by 7 pts or fewer and they are 2-1. Three more important stats: Only 5x in 44 games have opponents had a 100 yd rusher and their record is 4-1 when that happens. And only 4x in 44 games have they played a team that didn't turn it over and they are 3-1. Finally, they have been in a tie game after 3 quarters only twice and are 1-1 in those games.

Mt Union can win if:
-Run the ball effectively. Only 5 teams have had 100 yd rushers in 3 yrs. This is who Mt Union is, they have to run the ball to win.
-Zero turnovers. NCC has excelled at getting takeaways and they don't give it away much either (#15 in turnover margin)
-Play Beaudrie, a lot. I really think he has got to play a lot. His added dimension as a runner makes this good Mt Union offense very hard to defend.
-Move the front on defense. Rossy Moore is elite when he can operate in space. He, and his cohorts, are not effective when they have to fight off double teams. NCC is going to line up in 2 TE's and try to double team this defense front and knock them into the LB's. If they do, its game over. Mt Union has to have run stunts and blitzes to create penetration and get some tackles for loss. They are one of the top teams in the country in TFL. If they can force NCC into 2nd/3rd and long and then spy Lehnen, they can get off the field on 3rd down.
-Take advantage of opportunities. Mt Union has an excellent FG kicker. North Central also is one of the most penalized teams in the country. This can put NCC behind the chains and maybe we'll find out who their punter is.
-Tackle well. The JHU game would have been a blowout if Mt Union did a better job tackling at all three levels.
-Stay close through 3 quarters. Mt Union is the much more experienced team in tight games and they can use that experience if they can stay close until late

North Central can win if:
-They run for 200+ yds and Lehnen throws for 200 on less than 20 attempts. This is their recipe. Control the LOS and hit big plays.
-Win the turnover battle. It goes without saying, but NCC is really good at getting takeaways and turning them into points.
-Get off the field on 3rd down. They are #1 in the nation in this stat and that's in part because they get teams into 3rd and long. Giving extra possessions to Lehnen and Co. is a good strategy.
-As noted above, NCC hasn't had very many 100 yd rushers. If they can limit the Raider run game, they will win.
-Keep their composure. A couple of their OL like to play "through" the whistle and that has gotten them into trouble. They can't afford costly penalties.

I think this game will be closer than most predict but then again, since I thought the Susquehanna game could be close, who knows. One thing I feel pretty confident in, if this game is close in the second half, it will go the distance.

I've been looking at both teams for this game. Here are my thoughts on each team and the game:

Mt Union:

Personnel Strengths:
Veteran OL: all five are 2 or three yr starters with 2 AA's up front. Ben Lilly is a 4 yr starter at OT and Giovanni Kennedy has emerged as a 1st team AA at guard.
RB: Echeverry and Williams are different and both very talented. Echeverry reminds me of Ethan Greenfield from NCC. He runs downhill and knows how to stay on his feet. Shaun Thomas also adds another dimension here
DL: Rossy Moore is the leading tackler (106 total) and a disruptive force and plays with a high motor for UMU and Kaleb Brown is also very talented, leading the team in sacks. Both are athletic and make plays in space.
Special Teams: Kicker is 10-14 on FG including 4-5 from 40+.Darnell Williams is an explosive returner.

Personnel weaknesses:
The defense is athletic but doesn't do as well getting off blocks. LB's and secondary are average tacklers at best. Lots of missed tackles in the JHU game. WR: After Sanders this group doesn't scare you.

Overall:

Offensively:
National Rankings: Total off #15, Rush off #9, Pass off #76, Scoring Off #14, 3rd down off #46
They look a lot like North Central. 60% run and 40% pass. If Beaudrie plays their offense becomes a lot more like NCC as he is their 3rd leading rusher. Their run game is what drives this team. Echeverry is a stud.  They are well coached and have a great scheme. They have moved the ball on everybody. If the run game is going, big plays typically happen in the pass game

Defense:
National Rankings: Total def #68, Rush Def #46, Pass Def #121, Scoring Def #30, 3rd down def #143, Turnover margin #69, Tackles for loss #38
This is not a dominant defense by any means but they have dynamic players in Rossy Moore, Kaleb Brown and Von Factor up front along with Johnson at LB (2nd in tackles), Yanssens (3rd in tackles) and Roland at safety. They do a great job moving Moore around to use his athleticism and moving the front with simple twists and blitzes to free up these guys to make plays. They like to bring in extra bigs on short yardage and GL and they blitz a fair amount, especially on 3rd down. Injuries to the secondary has made this a more pedestrian group in terms of man coverage. They need the front to get home or there are guys open.

North Central:

Personnel strengths:
OLine: Two 4 yr starters and 1st team AA's in Sam Pryor and Jeske Maples. Dominant players. This group plays with an edge
QB: 2 time Gagliardi, 4 straight Staggs, about to set the record for efficiency. If the OL is the F150, Lehnen is the engine that powers it.
RB: Sacco, Allen and Coleman are different but all run downhill behind this OL and are hard to tackle
DL: Sullivan is the second leading tackler on the team at DT, which is rare. He is also DPOY in the CCIW and the Region. Kid makes plays. The other three are all good, but this guy has power and sheds blocks to make tackles. Egbo, last year's CCIW DPOY is 2nd team this year at DE
LB: Adamchik is their leading tackler and a playmaker. He is always around the football. Nuccio's return from injury has bolstered this group and freshman Janiak has made a statement as the next great LB in the league. Oh yea, there's also Orr, who is versatile at safety or LB
DB: Garrigan's return from injury has made this group a strength. Very good tacklers and almost always in the right places.
Kicking game: Ryan Sineac is 101 for 101 on Extra points

Personnel weaknesses:
2 of their OL have are playing their first post season/Stagg. The corners aren't as strong of cover guys as they have had in the past. Their WR group has done a great job this year, just not as dynamic as in the past. TE's aren't very involved in the pass game. While the FG kicker is 5/5 in the post season, they don't kick them very often, preferring to be aggressive on 4th down more often than not. Do they have a punter?

Overall:

Offense:
National Rankings: Total Off #2, Rush Off #3, Pass off #71, Scoring off #2, 3rd down off #9
This team runs the ball at you and won't relent. 60% run, 40% pass. They mix it up with their RB's and Lehnen really well. LL is the fastest guy on the field and really difficult to catch in space. You don't see him take many hits. The OL/TE's are involved in double teams at the point of attack most plays and the WR's are very good run blockers, making this a tough team to stop in the run game. Passing game is prolific off play action and not very good with straight drop back in long yardage situations, which they don't face very often.

Defense:
National Rankings: Total Def #18, Scoring Def #2, Rush Def #27, Pass Def #40, Turnover margin #15, 3rd down def #1
The reason this team has been so dominant in the post season this year is the health of the defense. last year was a battle of attrition and this year they have all their studs, including players as backups with multiple years as starters. These guys tackle extremely well and the front 7 are physical and do a great job getting off blocks. They love a boundary corner blitz (3 corners have 1 sack and multiple TFL) and pressure enough to keep you guessing. The front 4 are not great pass rushers (#95 in sacks) so they have to bring pressure at times to get home.

Yeah, we have to remember Wayne Ruby and DeAngelo Hardy (as well as Broc Rutter, Andrew Kamienski, Ethan Greenfield) didn't really get more than a sniff from the NFL. Rossy Moore has the atheticism but not the size as an edge rusher/OLB. He is more of a safety type size-wise.

I wouldn't think Lehnen has any shot an NFL look. His speed is worth a look but he'd have to project as a slot WR?

Quote from: NCC2010 on December 23, 2024, 01:04:28 PMNext year will be a huge year for the program to either keep the success going and continue to build towards those goals or take a step back following the most talent the program will ever lose in one offseason.
 

From an opponents perspective this is what we said 4 years ago when Gagliardi winning QB Broc Rutter graduated. Then this little known freshman named Luke Lehnen showed up. We also thought Kamienski was a once in a lifetime WR and DeAngelo Hardy appeared. Sharmore Clarke was the best OL in the country and then they got Jeske Maples and Sam Pryor.

Kind of reminds of another team. I though this QB named Ballard propelled the Raiders and when he was gone they'd fall off. Then came Bill Borchert and WR Kevin Knestrick. Ok, maybe after their gone? QB Gary Smeck and WR Adam Marino gave way to RB Chuck Moore and Dan Pugh. Fine, no one is that good right? Wrong! RB Nate Kmic showed up with Pierre Garcon followed by QB Greg Micheli and Cecil Shorts. Finally, we all though Mt Union was toast when LK left? Sorry, Vince K gave them another 2 titles.

I don't think anyone is thinking NCC is taking a step back next year and while some fans may think Mt Union has taken a step back, here they are in another Stagg Bowl.

Quote from: D3fanboy on December 22, 2024, 07:09:57 PM

Quote from: WRMUalum13 on December 22, 2024, 07:00:57 PM

Quote from: D3fanboy on December 22, 2024, 02:17:24 PM

Quote from: raiderpa on December 21, 2024, 11:43:37 PMIf Mount Defense plays Jan 5 like they did today, they may need 72 to win...

well, they scored at will on what the D3 "analytics" told me was one of the greatest D3 defenses of the modern era. "rarified air" and "best in a decade" I believe were thrown around.

Play with poise, limit negative plays and turnovers and don't piss down your leg at the start of the game a la Susquehanna and '22 Stagg Bowl will be key.  Can't get into a big hole against NCC.  Make it a physical game, drag them out into deeper waters and see if they can swim.  This Mount squad has a knack for not flinching in big moments. 

There is literally next to zero pressure on the Raiders in Houston.  NCC is the greatest superpower ever seen in D3 led by the quarterback who invented college football.  Their five year stretch is something that has never been seen before and definitely was not aided a great deal by a pandemic.  Five straight Stagg Bowls?!?!? I mean come on, that's unheard of.  They will probably keep that up for 10, maybe 11 straight years. "Red is the new Purple"

What analytics? Massey and Logan had them as #1 D in the country but not sure about all this "best of the era talk" talk.

QuoteJHU has one of the best defenses of the decade, which is especially stalwart in the Red Zone.
#d3fb

https://x.com/LogHanRatings/status/1870501360291942544

QuoteAfter holding UMHB to 10 points Saturday, Johns Hopkins' defense joins rarified air, with a Sub-Zero™ Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
#d3fb

https://x.com/LogHanRatings/status/1868377298224693678

Forgetting for a moment that your "D3 Analytics" was really just 1 person, it seems Logan is focused on 2 fairly myopic statistics for JHU. I certainly didn't think JHU's defense was anything special going into the Mt Union game. In fact, the best defense Mount has faced all year is Carnegie Mellon (#5 Total Defense). CMU impressed me on defense. They were well coached, good tacklers, and disciplined. JHU's defense is ranked #70 in total defense according to NCAA stats. Here are the NCAA national rankings for JHU's defense in various categories (I put Mt Union's ranking in parenthesis for comparison):

Total defense: 70 (68)
Rush defense: 45 (46)
Pass defense: 127 (121)
Pass efficiency defense: 14 (91)
Scoring defense: 15 (30)
3rd down defense: 49 (143)
Red zone defense: 2 (93)

JHU has 1 category they are in the top 10 in the country (Red Zone Defense). That's not rarified anything. North Central's defense is light years better than JHU, but not as stout as Carnegie Mellon. I don't think the JHU game is much of a metric on how Mt Union will do vs NCC at all. After a first look I would say Mt Union will score more than they did vs Carnegie Mellon and less than they did vs JHU. I think Mt can score enough to win though I would be surprised if they rang up a big number on offense. The big question for me is how much can Mount slow NCC. The best defense NCC has faced this year is Hope (#14 Total Defense) followed by Springfield (#41). Hope had some legit dudes on their front 7.

Quote from: CarollFan on December 21, 2024, 05:49:13 PMSome folks were saying Susquehanna was this years Cortland.

I don't remember anyone saying that. I asked it as a question prior to the game. I'm pretty sure no one predicted Susquehanna getting shut out.

Quote from: GusD on December 21, 2024, 06:41:21 PMGoing in, all you really had to know about today's game was that out of 239 D3 football teams Susquehanna was #217 in passing yards allowed per game.

On the day Luke Lehnen was 16 for 17 (94.1%) for 275 yards and 4 touchdowns.

FINAL:
North Central 66
Susquehanna.  0

Doesn't explain the 0 part of the final score. Congrats the NCC defense for dominating the last two weeks.

Sources say Sacco good to go. Coleman also available. Orr playing. NCC overall pretty healthy. 

This game will certainly be determined by how well the NCC defense can slow the River Hawks offense.