Championship day. Tsatsimpe and norton were back in the semi-final and Heo was available off the bench, which I imagine will be the case again today. With all those guys playing i think amherst is easily the most talented and deepest team in the league. Trinity however is probably playing better than anyone else right now having reeled off five straight wins (including @midd and @ wesleyan) since last losing to Amherst at home in a 1-0 game. I really think this is could be a special Amherst team. The hoops second ever conference title and a deep NCAA run would validate that. I see both happening.

I do think trinity should be into the tournament with a win or a loss. I can't imagine middlebury getting in, as they would be the fifth NESCAC team. (Im assuming if they get in williams a would have as well. I think Williams is the real bubble team). Have five from the conference gotten in before? With so few pool c bid, I can't imagine four going to one conference.

Don't think any of the results are too surprising. For the last several years, regardless of where they're ranked, midd seems to be the most dangeros team in the tournament. They and trinity are both playing really well right now. Reading the stories, seems like each game ended in a fair result. The most impressive thing to me from the weekend is amherst's depth. Three key starters, Heo, tsatsimpe, and norton all didn't play (on top of mooney having not been able to play this year). Any one with knowledge? Beating Colby without those players is one thing, taking on midd is another (do you think there is anyone Amherst wanted to see less than the team that has knocked them out the last two years and seems to be a guarantee every year to make the title game). Is the trinity v Williams game a play in game for the NCAA? I think whichever team wins that game, assuming they don't win the title should make the tournament. I think the most interesting scenario as far as bids could possibly play out would be midd winning it all. Amherst and Wesleyan must be in, if midd takes the tournament does the Nescac get four teams, or will that take the possible bid away from williams/trinity winner? Love to hear thoughts.

Bizarre final day. I didnt see the game, and the box score isn't yet available, but apparently Amherst missed a pk in the final seconds. I'm interested to see the stats of the game. I wonder if conn Coll (who as nhsocca said has handles Amherst) created equal chances or just finished the few they got. Also, curious if this game was back and forth or on team jumped out several goals early. In the end this lose, nor the one for Wesleyan is killer. Both are pool c locks. The biggest thing is now wesleyan has midd In the round rather than Colby. A bit of a scary proposition. I won't comment on home field advantage for the semis and finals, because anything can happen in the first week. I like trinity, what do they need to accomplish in this tourney to get in pool c if they don't win the whole thing. Same question for Williams. I think Williams will benefit from name recognition if only three teams are coming from the Nescac.

The best things from the day, the box score description of tufts' first goal against Bowdoin (for which there really isn't much left to be said) :

"1. 22:03 TUF Goal: Maxime Hoppenet. Assist: Gus Santos. cheeky move inside the box. delivered sharp cheddar to the upper 90"

Biggest game of the year was a bit of a dud, I wasn't too impressed with either team going forward. Most of the shots were slow and from distance. The best chance was early in the game when Noon forced Purdy to go low and to his right go make a save, but it really wasn't that threatening. Seemed like Amherst's offense missed their most imaginative player, Heo. For their sake, I hope he isn't out too much longer. From all the stories written about him this year, seems like he must have been feeling it badly to have missed this game.  I think both will win their next game, not sure what the tie breaker is.

I'd like Amherst to host as well, and I think they will. Even if the game ties between them and Wesleyan (though I like Amherst 1-0) Amherst has the easier final opponent. I have no idea what will happen 3/4/5. I could see any of the 6 combos happening.

I think it will shake out like this
Amherst
Wesleyan
Tufts
Williams
Trinity (just drew those three from a hat)
Midd
Conn College
Colby

Shaping up to be an incredible stretch run with several intriguing story lines.

A the top of the list is the top of the table. Amherst I think proved their toughness making it out of their gauntlet 3-0-1 to tie Wesleyan for first place. Great for all fans that they get to play each other for what is essentially the regular season crown. I think amherst is the better team, by a hair. They have so many weapons (amh63, did heo return after his injury?).  If anyone can keep them off the score sheet it's Purdy and that defense though. Aside, any player of the year thoughts? To me its Noon vs Purdy. I favor Noon just because I think a lot of purdy's gaudy numbers are helped by the defense that plays in front of him. I wonder though if Heo and Noon will split votes (or however they make the decision) amongst those who would lean toward selecting an Amherst forward.

Then you've got trinity, tufts and williams left to fight it out for 3rd and 4th (I don't include conn because I believe amherst will beat them in their only remaining game). A really impressive pair of results for tufts this weekend, they're 6-1-1 in their last 8 games. Important to get those home quarterfinal games.

Finally there is the last spot in the tournament (assuming conn and midd finish 6&7 in some order). Only bates is eliminated, and Hamilton has a game in hand. I think Colby will get it as they reach ten points with a game left still against bates ( I do hope bates gets a win, hate to see anyone go winless but at Colby and home against midd, I don't know if they'll get it in either). All this means that last years final four team might not even reach the conference tournament.

I agree that charging for an audio feed is really poor, I was very disappointed.

The game though played out in a fitting way.  Amherst created many more chances and overall seemed much more threatening.  A scrappy goal off a restart and a rocket from Pugilese aren't things you can count on every day.  This game affirms LaPaz's belief that Heo is the best player in the league.  He is dangerous from every part of the field.  He scored one and drew the penalty on the other, could have probably had more as he nailed the post as time expired.  Amherst to me was  the better team.


This regular season crown is boiling down to Amherst/Wesleyan.  If Amherst can get go 2-0-1 this week it will make the late season match up between Amherst and Wesleyan huge.  The game is in Amherst, so Wesleyan won't have the luxury of their unique field.  Amherst's offense vs Wesleyan's defense will be great to watch, two best units in the NESCAC.

I really expected Bowdoin would go on a little run to end the season, but losing at home to Colby kills that notion.  The came back and tied Babson today, who was good enough to beat Williams, so Bowdoin clearly isn't a team others can take lightly, but their conference results have been baffling.

Midd is on a bit of a roll right now, I wouldn't be shocked if they win out.  4-0-1 in their last five outscoring opponents 12-0.  The only team they couldn't score against was Wesleyan, but no one score on Wesleyan.

Lastly, I really dislike the uneven scheduling.  I know it really doesn't make a huge difference, but the NESCAC should be able to do a better job balancing when games are.  For Wesleyan to not play a conference game in two weeks, while Amherst has 4 in 8 days (all on the road) is ridiculous. 

I like your tiering idea, very similar to the now ubiquitous power rankings that accompany every pro sport.  I do see the slotting, as well as some of the points you made, a little differently though.

First, I think Amherst clearly belongs in tier one (and I'm not sure if you meant to include them there because you also refer to the two teams in the second tier, though list three).  While they might not end up in the top spot, to this point they have arguably been the best, and without a doubt belong the top tier no matter how you draw the lines.

Trinity also should be in tier two, alongside Bowdoin and Midd.  The rest of it I agree with.

A few other things, Williams has certainly had the upper hand for the majority of the last 20 years of the rivalry, but since Amherst changed coaches before the 2007 season, the tenor has changed a bit.  In the those four year Amherst is 2-1-1 against Williams, with a win and a tie in Williamstown.  Yes it is a small sample, but I think it is more representative of the rivalry as it stands now.  About Kushiana as the best player in the league, that seems like a huge stretch to me.  He is the leading scorer for an offense that hasn't been too dynamic and hasn't even started several of Williams recent games (though has been healthy enough to play I assume since he did come off the bench in each).  I would buy Mayernick as the best player in the league.

I assume the major injuries you're referring to center around Ratajzak, is there someone else too?  Also, why does coach Russo switch goalies so much?  I'd just stick with Morrell.

Didn't mean to say the duo, I know #15 is Tsatsimpe.

LaPaz, concerning the outside backs I think we're roughly on the same page.  Your point is mostly the same thing as what I said.

Concerning possession, Williams always traditionally out possessed their opponents because they have almost always had superior talent.  Past tendency can only carry so much weight on Sunday's game. 

We clearly agree that talent wise Williams isn't superior this year, but we seemingly differ on the extent to which the tide has swung.  Amherst has in recent years certainly had talent, but in the last two years especially (and even when they won the NESCAC and made the national semis) the one thing that was lacking was a central midfielder who could control the pace of the game.  I think the duo of #15 Tsatsimpe can do that.  Last year Tsatsimpe played in the middle, but he was often dropped in behind Rothkopf, whose style Amherst coach deferred to.  Rothkopf didn't have the same technical abilities as Tsatsimpe, and so Amherst played a certain way.  Without him as the face of the team I think they have been freed a little bit.  Beyond that, Noon is very adept at holding the ball up top and keeping possession.  I know Williams would like to play a certain way, but has anyone stepped into the roles of Kelly and Romero from last year as a midfielder who can dictate tempo and a forward who can hold the ball, respectively?  Obviously these roles aren't sufficient to control possession, but I do think they're necessary. Across the board Williams isn't as strong has they're were last year, and certainly not as good as two years ago or when they were entrenched at the top of the league during the early 2000s.  The only way that I think Williams is able keep possession in the game at 50/50 is if Amherst scores some early goals and decides to just sit in during the second half (as they did against Midd, a 3-0 game you left off your list).  Since I can't make it to the game, Im going to try and tune into the webcast to see how it all pans out (aside, why does Williams charge for the webcast? Does it come in HD?).  If this year Williams still dominates possession, then I will agree that will be the case forever and on forward.

About Amherst's schedule. I agree that their non-conference schedule is a joke and I would like to see at least one good team on it.  The difference for me so far between Amherst and Williams as far as racking up goals against bad teams is concerned is that while they have both scored against inferior teams, Amherst also put up 3 on Midd and Tufts, the most respectable teams on their schedule thus far.  The real test will be, as I mentioned somewhere in an earlier post,  Amherst's stretch from the 9th-16th.  That is the hardest I've four games in a row ive seen in recent memory.  That week will reveal if Amherst is really as good as we both think they might be.

I saw the field damage had shifted some the girl's games, wasn't sure about how if impacted the men.  Your theory seems good.

I dont understand why the Amherst Williams game is on Sunday instead of Saturday.  Neither is playing on Saturday, Williams hasn't played since last weekend and Amherst since Monday, and both play the following Tuesday.  Can anyone come up with a possible explanation?

Anyways, this game is clearly the top matchup of the week, just because it is Amherst/Williams.  There isn't much impressive about Williams season thus far, as LaPaz alluded to they aren't headed toward as Pool C bid as things are now.  They've raked up some goals against bad teams, but haven't found results against the better teams (Bowdoin may finish strong, but were certainly were not playing well when they faced Williams).  Their top scorer got two against Bates, one against Hamilton and hasn't found the net since.  The defense is strong though, that combined with the fact, that a win against Amherst can make their season, makes them scary coming into this game.  However, I think the reality is that Amherst's defense is just as strong.  I dont agree with LaPaz that Amherst has week defensive backs, maybe just because the rest of the team is so strong and they dont have the same depth at that position (though barring injuries, you dont really expect to sub backs anyways).  With Heo and Noon (and maybe with the addition Mooney who saw his first action of the season on Monday) leading charge, Amherst's offense if far better than Williams'.  I think they will create more chances and control possession, but Williams strong defense will limit the amount of times they can capitalize.  In the end I think Amherst wins this one by a goal (1-0).

The second most interesting game is Tufts and Conn College.  As I mentioned in my last post, I view this teams similarly and the stats seem to back that up.  They both score a little under 1.3 goals/game and give up about .8.  Conn College started out strong, but haven't been able to play up with some of the better teams in the league.  A similar argument could be made for Tufts, although I was impressed with their ability to rebound against Trinity after being drubbed by Amherst.  With all of this in mind, I guess it makes sense the two teams are next to each other in the standings, at 5 & 6 respectively.  All in all, Conn is a little better, and Tufts doesn't really have much of a home field advantage as some of the other teams in the league do. (1-0).

The other three games conference games strike me as a little more lopsided.  If LaPaz is correct in predicting a Bates/Wesleyan draw I would be pretty shocked.  If Bates sits in I think it is possible, but I just don't see Bates getting any points in this game.  (2-0).

Midd and Bowdoin should also handle their games easily, and begin to position themselves for the tournament.  Not that there is any reason the games are linked but I think those two teams win on an aggregate score of 5-1.

Truthfully, aside from Amherst Williams, what really interests me this weekend is Bowdoin and Babson.  The NESCAC is dominating the top of the regional rankings this year like they normally do (I know the NSCAA regional rankings mean nothing, but still).  Babson beat Williams, can they effectively end any hope Bowdoin has at a pool C bid (is that hope isn't already dead).

The biggest story of the weekend has to be Bowdoin.  The reality might just be that they have fallen off a good deal from last year's final four squad.  Sure, not having Jones hurts them, but I dont think that is the whole story there.  I know LaPaz is saying their goalie is lackluster, and their goals against might be a reflection of that.

Midd gets four points out of the weekend, pretty good. I think Midd is going to rattle off a couple wins down the stretch.  Seem unlucky to have not beaten Weslyan, but that is what playing the Cardinals is like.  They get more points from games they dont belong in than anyone else.  Important for Midd to come back today and beat Conn College.

Just as Trinity seemed to be rolling, they go ahead and drop one to Tufts.  To me Conn College and Tufts are in the same boat.  Relatively new coaches who seem to have their teams trending upward, just not quite there yet.  Conn's win over Bowdoin isn't as impressive as I would have thought at the start of the season, given their struggles.

Meanwhile Amherst continues to roll along.  Another goal for Heo and Noon each this weekend.  10 goals in 4 leagues games is good, but I'm sure their coach is making it clear to them that they've got a lot more work to do.

Finally, Hamilton jumps up to 8th with their first ever NESCAC win.  I have no idea how Bates got two goals against Amherst when they managed 1 against Williams, Trinity, and Hamilton combined.

I don't know if its bad or not, but the scheduling for this season is really odd (beyond the tough home/away weekends some teams have).  After this weekend Wesleyan will have played seven league games while Amherst and Bowdoin will have played just four.  It's fortunate for Wesleyan to have gotten so many intra-conference games while they are playing as well as they are.  Of they're five renaming games I think there is a good chance they only come away with 2 wins.  I think their perfect record will end this weekend in Middlebury (not sure if they will lose or draw, but I dont think they are going to win in Vermont).  I do think that they'll beat Colby on Sunday.

Of all the teams, Bowdoin has the most important weekend.  They must beat Conn College.  They've had the most difficult schedule thus far having only played Williams, Wesleyan, and Midd.  The backside of their schedule this is relatively easy, with Amherst (home) and Trinity (away) as the only games that should be tough.  Bowdoin has to turn it around at some point though, and if doesn't happen this weekend, it might not happen at all.

The other three games are not as interesting I dont think.  Amherst should beat Tufts at home and Trinity should do the same with Colby at home (even though neither could do it last year).  Bates and Hamilton each have probably their best, and maybe only chance, to get put up a league win.  No idea who will grab the opportunity, or if either will.

Sunday, I think Midd and Wesleyan win, while Trinity and Tufts draw.

Outside of the NESCAC, I expect Williams to get a little revenge on Babson for knocking them out of the NCAA last year.  They should also be able to handle MIT easily.

A week with some serious dramatics. From the reports, Wesleyan slid one in with just under two minutes left in the second OT to knock off Williams and Bowdoin tied it up with just seconds left in regulation.  Was anyone at either game?  I love to hear how those goals happened.

Hamilton looked to play Amherst better yesterday than they have been playing other teams.  Maybe that will translate into their first conference win against Wesleyan today.

I'm really impressed with both Amherst and Wesleyan (if Trinity can beat a quality team they might become part of the discussion).  They seem to be on the verge of distancing themselves a little from the pack.  It might be a little tougher for Amherst though. I was looking ahead at some of the schedules, in a span of 8 days Amherst is away to Williams, Trinity, Colby and Bowdoin.  I can't recall any stretch in that difficult.

I thought Conn might have be a serious threat to finish in the top four with both Bowdoin and Midd seemingly struggling (granted it is still really early) but losing at home to Wesleyan in their first real test might indicate otherwise, especially if the game is as LaPaz noted.  Are Amherst, Wesleyan, and Williams going to be the class of the league this year?  Bowdoin clearly has played one league game so its hard to get a real gauge, but I hope so. Even though Amherst/Williams is obviously the best rivalry I always get the impression that the mutual respect between the two keeps those games civil, whereas with Wesleyan, for whatever reason, that doesn't exist making Wesleyan/Amherst and Wesleyan/Williams games a little more heated.  When the teams are good...all the better. 

9/24
Bowdoin v Midd (2-1)
I think both teams are going to come into this game desperate for a win.  Midd's desperation, with its terrible start, is clear.  For Bowdoin I think having to see themselves at the bottom of the standings (even though its meaningless since they've only played one game) will add some fire.  Really hard to sit around for two weeks with the taste of a NESCAC loss swishing around in your month.  I don't think Midd is as good.

Wesleyan v Williams (1-0)
These teams are probably pretty even, I'm giving a slight advantage to Wesleyan because they are home, on their small field, and have a better goalie.

Amherst v Hamilton (3-0)
Does this game feature the largest talent gap in the league?  Doesn't mean Hamilton can't win, I just don't think they will.

Don't really have anything to say about the other two games.  They could really go in any direction. 

9/25
Bowdoin v Williams (2-1)
I think this is the most interesting game of the weekend by far. This is a massive weekend for both the Polar Bears and Ephs. First off, each will have a played a tough game the day before and both will have to travel (Bowdoin a bit further) for this game.  Not sure if that sort of nullifies some of Williams' benefits of having this on at home.  Eddie Jones has been back for two games now but hasn't started in each.  TrueNorth probably knows more about his status then anyone else.  I know I said earlier I like when Williams is part of the top tier (as they pretty much always are) but i think they could take a serious hit this weekend.  Nick Powell is off to a fantastic start, albeit against some non-NESCAC competition, games in which players have historically been able to rack of the stats. They also appear to have two freshman who have been getting on the score sheet, to go along with the always stout defense anchored by Bishop.  I like Bowdoin a lot and think they will be back up near the top of standings after coming away with their second big victory of the weekend.