While we're at it, predictions?

18 seem clear to me, while the last one is tough.  Messiah, Montclair State, Brandeis, Carnegie Mellon, Dickinson, Salisbury, Wartburg, Williams, Kenyon, North Park, Carthage, Gustavus Adolphus, Gordon, Oberlin, Roger Williams, Catholic, Rutgers-Newark, and Luther.  Lucky No. 19? Oneonta State

While I don't think they necessarily should, I'm guessing Oneonta State gets the final bid.  If, as has been suggested previously, the committee really only looks at 8 teams at a time (the top Pool C team in each region) when making its selection, that would mean they would have to pass over Oneonta State 19 straight times.  I just have a hard time believing the East Region representative will let that happen, but who knows.

The same could be said for Texas-Dallas and Whitworth (3/4 in West), but the committee usually places a ton of emphasis on strength-of-schedule and they are tied for the lowest in Pool C.  The UAA is already getting 3 teams in so I don't think Emory goes.  MIT will be 8th in New England, and no other region seems to be going past 6th so I think they're out.  Same for St. Olaf, who will be 7th in the North, has a weak ranked-teams record (1-3) and would be the third bid for the MIAC.  I just don't see happening. 

The hard one for me is DePauw - I may be biased, but the NCAC has a pretty legitimate claim as the best conference in the country this year.  And, unlike the other 7 teams in the "Pick 'Em" group, they have no bad blemishes.  So while they may be 0-3-2 against ranked teams, they also haven't had any slip-ups (draws or losses) against unranked teams.  Still, doubtful the committee takes 4 NCAC teams, or 4 at-large teams from the Great Lakes region.  So that just lets in Oneonta.

I think the predictions were done based on guesses on committee selection, not who is most deserving.  Brandeis was already #2 in New England and won their only game this week, so can't imagine them dropping.  As the top-ranked Pool C team in New England that probably guarantees them a spot.

Dickinson has an extremely high strength-of-schedule and five wins over regionally-ranked teams.  Those are perhaps the top two criteria when we really get into Pool C.  When you compare them to DePauw, that's where the separation shows up.  While some of it may be scheduling luck, if memory serves Centre is usually regionally unranked or ranked very low, so even if they'd had a great year I don't know who they would have displaced in the Great Lakes rankings.

John Carroll doesn't have any good wins and one of the lowest SOS in Pool C plus some bad results so they're pretty firmly out IMO.  Randolph is a bit confusing - again, no good wins, but winning 17 games is no easy feat.  They're also coming from a conference that has made some tournament noise recently.

Quote from: KnightRider23 on November 10, 2013, 09:37:08 PM
Any chance of a Loras first round bye?

Looking at the 8 top-ranked regional teams, I'd guess they just miss out but it might depend on where they put everyone in the bracket.

Wheaton's not getting one, Trinity shouldn't (two losses) and I'd have to think that Stevens' ridiculously low SOS will hold them back.  That leaves Amherst, Messiah, Rutgers-Camden, OWU and Loras.  Given the committee's penchant for matching up the Mid-Atlantic and South Atlantic, I think Rutgers-Camden gets one and Messiah does not.  Does Loras deserve a bye over OWU or Amherst?  Hard to justify it since both of those teams are unbeaten and can match Loras' impressive ranked-games record.

Having said that, we know $$$ (or a desire to not spend any) often sets up the bracket itself and the choice of who gets a bye, so who knows.

Hate to say it, but I think Calvin is probably on the outside looking in.  Calvin was 6th in the last regional rankings, which is the last spot in the Central region's rankings.  They have an awful record versus ranked teams (1-4-1), and compared to the other Pool C teams have a relatively weak strength of schedule. 

The biggest problem is the MIAA's home-and-home setup, because it limited Calvin to only 4 non-conference games.  When three of those four are against NCAA-bound teams (Ohio Wesleyan, Loras and Kenyon) and you fail to get a result, you're stuck with either getting the AQ or hoping the conference is strong enough to get you an at-large.  With Hope unranked and every other MIAA team hovering around .500 or worse, Calvin isn't getting any help there.

I'd guess three teams get bids - too much beating up on each other and a few other teams in the region outside the NESCAC racking up gaudy records mean that those bubble teams need to pray others take care of their business.

As an aside, wherever those Bennett Rankings came from they're absurd and clearly weighted towards the NESCAC and UAA.  Any ranking that has Tufts (8-5-2, or barely winning more than half of their games) at #8 while Ohio Wesleyan (18-0-2) is #24, York (16-2) is #29 and Salisbury (16-2) is #55 (!!) cannot be taken even remotely seriously.  Maybe even more telling, somehow Colby (4-10, ZERO conference wins) is at #67 (top 20% of all D3 teams), ahead of Kenyon, DePauw, Susquehanna, Texas-Dallas, Dominican, John Carroll, etc.

Wednesday will really lay out the landscape for everything with many (most) conference semifinals taking place and the last official regional rankings coming out.  Should be a crazy week.

DePauw is in serious danger of missing out on the NCAA tournament altogether.  After coming back from a 2-0 deficit to tie Denison, DePauw sits at 14-2-2 but has zero wins over ranked opponents (record of 0-2-2).  They get the best possible opportunity to lock up a spot this week with a rematch at OWU, but if they lose that game, I think there's a good chance they're on the outside looking in. 

Comparing resumes for teams 2-4 in the NCAC:

Team A: 14-2-2 (5-2-2 NCAC), 0-2-2 versus ranked opponents, best win home against Knox or Centre
Team B: 13-3-3 (6-0-3 NCAC), 2-0-3 versus ranked opponents, best win neutral against Calvin
Team C: 13-2-4 (5-1-3 NCAC), 1-1-2 versus ranked opponents, best wins at Team A and at Hope (who will probably be ranked next week).

I seriously don't know who you pick there. A = DePauw, B = Kenyon, C = Oberlin.  Now, let's assume OWU wins the NCAC tournament so DePauw ends at 14-3-2, 0-3-1 versus ranked opponents (Denison no longer ranked), best win home against Knox or Centre. 

Scenario 1: Kenyon beats Oberlin. Kenyon would be 14-4-3, 2-1-3 versus ranked, best win neutral against Calvin or home against Oberlin.  Oberlin would be 13-3-4, 2-1-2 versus ranked opponents (Hope ranked, Denison not), best wins at DePauw and at Hope.

Scenario 2: Oberlin beats Kenyon.  Oberlin is 14-3-4, 3-1-2 versus ranked opponents, best wins at DePauw, at Kenyon, at Hope.  Kenyon 13-4-3, 1-1-3 versus ranked, best win neutral against Calvin.

I think in either case the winner of Kenyon-Oberlin gets the nod over DePauw.  Now, Depauw could take out OWU and make this a moot point, but interesting nonetheless.

Spot on, and from what I've seen the late goals are a function of just wearing teams down.  Case in point, OWU brought their 3 top scorers (combined 20 goals, 12 assists thus far) off the bench yesterday. 

Here's a link to the highlights, the best of which is easily OWU's second goal (by the right back no less).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrlOz0JjnD0

Point taken, but I'd also note that those are the only two teams DePauw has played that are even over .500 aside from Knox (who I admittedly know nothing about).  And yes, Centre did knock OWU out last year, but I'd argue their results this year, where OWU has already equalled last year's win total and Centre is 5-3-2, speak a little louder.

I don't mean that as a knock on DePauw - they are a good team, and you can only beat the people placed in front of you.  However, I think you started this thread to discuss potential NCAA bids, and this is where that SOS comes into play.  If Centre doesn't start winning games, DePauw currently has zero quality wins, at least with regards to the criteria used by the NCAA regional committee.  This puts a lot of pressure on them in conference to beat OWU, or to win the conference tournament, just to get into the NCAA tournament.

For example, if it comes down to Carnegie Mellon with 5 losses/draws, or DePauw with only 3 (tie with Kenyon and let's say 2 Ls elsewhere), Carnegie will get that spot.  I'm with you, and think the NCAC is strong this year and should get a couple of teams, but DePauw's schedule makes their margin for error very small.

Competing dynamics: DePauw hasn't really played anybody, but I'd venture to guess they're in OWU's head a little bit.  Having already tied once in conference play, pressure is on DePauw to get a result. 

Generally speaking, you can't really go head-to-head in an open game with OWU unless you have the horses to do it (Messiah), so I'd still expect DePauw to sit in and try to hit on the counter.  What would really make it interesting if is DePauw scores first, because OWU has had a habit all season of allowing the first goal.  Could they recover again?

I agree with whoever said it's OWU's if they want it.  Having watched the team several times, it seems like they turn it on when they need to.  Not a great quality to be showing halfway through the season, but the 2011 team didn't really play their best stuff until the Final Four so who knows.  It will be interesting to see what happens with some of the tougher conference games, especially DePauw who has had OWU's number for the last few years.

As for the OWU vs RC argument, based on quality of opposition thus far it seems like OWU is a bit more deserving.  And I know the dangers of score comparisons, but the only common opponent was Kean, and OWU's showing (6-0) was a little more convincing than RC's (2-1).

For the red card, I think the suspension might actually be two games, meaning the player would have to miss the semis and (potentially) the final as well.  I'm not sure if "fighting" is the distinction required, but I know when I played a teammate received a straight red for a scuffle with an opposing player and had to sit out the following two games.

I couldn't see exactly what happened on the red card due to the stream, but if it goes down for fighting or for punching the player, I believe the suspension is two games.