first round predictions for New England teams

Amherst 4 - Thomas 0
Keene St  1 - Ithica 0
Salve Regina 2 - Rowan 1
RPI  3 - Eastern Nazarene 0
Middlebury 2 - Johnson and Wales 0
Messiah 4 - Framingham St 0
Oneonta St 2 - Babson 1
Conn 3 - Catholic 2
Tufts 5 - SUNY Maritime 0
WPI  1 - Nazareth 0

Pool C predictions: (listed by region)

New England:
1.  Amherst
2.  Connecticut College
3.  WPI
4.  Middlebury
5.  Williams

East:
6.  RPI
7.  Ithaca
8.  Rochester

Mid-Atlantic:
9.  Franklin and Marshall
10.  Swarthmore
11.  Haverford
12.  Gettysburg

South Atlantic
13.  Christopher Newport
14.  Ramapo
15.  Rowan

Great Lakes:
16.  Ohio Northern
17.  Ohio Wesleyan

Central:
18.  Kalamazoo

North:
19.  Central
20.  Loras

West:
21.  Colorado

projected 11/6 Regional Rankings

1.  Amherst
2.  Tufts
3.  Conn
4.  WPI
5.  Middlebury
6.  Williams
7.  ECSU
8.  Brandeis
9.  Babson
10. Keene St
11. St. Josephs
12. Bates

Last 2 out:  Endicott, Wheaton

Notes:
- WPI and Williams each have 9 game unbeaten streaks
- Middlebury might slide to #6 as they have won only 2 of their last 9 games (2-2-5)
- ECSU may drop out of the rankings due to their sub-.500 SOS falling even farther below .500 after playing Plymouth St (1-11-3)
- Babson has played 7 of the top 8 ranked teams (2-4-1)

Projected 10/30 Regional Rankings

1.  Amherst
2.  Tufts
3.  Middlebury
4.  Conn
5.  WPI
6.  Brandeis
7.  Williams
8.  ECSU
9.  Babson
10. Keene St.
11. St Josephs
12. Endicott

Random observations on the 10/23 Regional Rankings:

* Middlebury is currently in 5th place in the NESCAC, but they are #3 in all of New England

* Keene St has the same winning % as Babson (0.667) and a stronger schedule, yet they are ranked behind the Beavers

* Babson's SOS of .553 in the Reg. Rankings is baffling.  They have played the teams ranked 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 9, and 12, yet they only have the 13th toughest schedule in New England?

* Rankings reward the strongest SOS and punish those with below average SOS - the following teams all have winning % over 0.750 but were not ranked presumably due to SOS below .500 (St. Joes 12-0-2, ECSU 13-2, Eastern Nazarene 13-1, Johnson & Wales 13-2, Maine Maritime 9-2-1, Norwich 10-3-1, Pine Manor 9-2-2, UMass-Boston 10-2-2)

* Endicott, Clark and Roger Williams must be the next three teams in the rankings given their records and SOS over .500

NEWMAC update:

1.  Clark 4-1-0  (11-4-0):  The Cougars current hold on the top spot in the conference standings is tenuous as they have not yet played the two teams tied for second - at Babson and WPI.  Also, they do not appear in the 10/23 Regional Rankings - presumably due to their .509 SOS.  It is very likely that Clark finishes 0-2 or 0-1-1 and falls to 3rd in the final standings.

2.  Babson 3-0-2  (9-5-2):  Babson's SOS of .553 in the Regional Rankings is baffling.  The Beavers have played the teams ranked 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 9, and 12, yet they only have the 13th toughest schedule in New England.  They close conference play with Clark and at Coast Guard and have a good chance of securing at least a tie for the regular season championship.  And the future is bright as 8 of Babson's normal starters are Freshmen or Sophomores.

3.  WPI  3-0-2  (9-2-4):  The Engineers were ranked #6 in New England in the 10/23 Regional Rankings - the highest ranked team in the NEWMAC.  Since then, they traveled to St. Josephs (Maine) and handed St Joes their first regular season loss in 3 years ending their 65 game unbeaten streak.  WPI has surrendered only 4 goals on the season, and their defensive strength makes every game competitive.  Interestingly, they have played only 4 ranked teams (RvsR  0-0-4) with #3 Middlebury the highest ranked, but WPI's SOS of .576 is significantly higher than Babson's.

4.  MIT  2-1-2  (7-2-6):  MIT finishes conference play with Emerson and Coast Guard and could realistically end up in 2nd place.  They have only been shut out once all season but are 0-2-1 against ranked teams.
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Wheaton  2-3-0  (7-7-1) and Springfield 2-3-0 (4-10-1) will be battling for the 5th and final conference tournament slot.  They play each other in the final game of the season, but Wheaton has a leg up as they get Emerson this weekend while Springfield visits WPI.

Projected 10/23/19 Regional Rankings for New England:

1.   Amherst      11-0-2
2.   Tufts             9-2-2
3.   Brandeis       8-3-4
4.   Middlebury    7-1-5
5.   Babson         9-4-2
6.   Conn            7-3-2
7.   St Josephs   12-0-2
8.   Bowdoin        6-2-4
9.   EConnSt       13-2-0
10. WPI               8-2-4
11. Endicott         8-4-2
12. UMass-Boston   10-2-2

next 3
Williams             5-3-4
MIT                    7-2-5
Clark                 11-4-0

week 3 predictions

With the exception of Emerson, all teams still remain in serious contention for the conference title.  This is great for parity and competitive games, but it also means that none of the teams currently deserve a New England ranking.

Emerson @ WPI:  The Engineers (5-2-3, 0-0-2) will take out some frustration on Emerson (2-7-1, 0-2) and notch their first conference win.  WPI 4 - Emerson 0

Wheaton @ Coast Guard:  Wheaton (5-5-1, 1-1) is playing better in their last three games with victories over Clark and Gordon and a tie with Brandeis.  Coast Guard (6-4, 1-1) has won three straight against decidedly weaker competition (combined record 5-20-2).  Wheaton 1 - Coast Guard 1

Springfield @ Clark:  Springfield (3-7-1, 1-1) has won only once in eight road games.  Clark (7-4, 1-1) had dropped three games in a row, reminiscent of last year's second half collapse, before rebounding with a solid 4-2 win over a decent Western New England side.  Clark 2 - Springfield 1

MIT @ Babson:  The winner of this contest would emerge with sole possession of first place.  Surprising MIT (4-1-4, 1-0-1) suffered their first loss of the season Tuesday at Brandeis, but they are likely to have a SOS issues for a potential regional ranking.  Babson (5-4-1, 1-0-1) also lost Tuesday in OT vs Endicott.  The Beavers will not have any problem with SOS (and still have Tufts, Conn College and EConn St to play) and enter better prepared for this matchup.   Babson 2 - MIT 1

Week 2 predictions

Babson @ Springfield:  Springfield (2-6-1, 1-0) has only played two of their first nine games at home, and they won both those contests.  However, they are winless against their four opponents with winning records having been outscored 7-1.  Babson (4-3-1, 0-0-1), coming off a 6 goal explosion Wednesday against New England College, finds a way.  Babson 1 - Springfield 0

Coast Guard @ Emerson:  Emerson (2-5-1, 0-1) has amassed a 3-39-1 record since joining the NEWMAC in 2013.   Two of the three wins have been 1-0 over Coast Guard in 2016 and 2018, and this game represents their best chance for a conference win again this year.  The difference is that the Lions surrender 3 goals per game vs. only 1 goal per game for Coast Guard.  With Emerson being very young, the toughness and maturity of the Bears should prevail.  Coast Guard 2 - Emerson 1.

Clark @ Wheaton:  Clark (6-2, 1-1) is the highest scoring team in the conference, and only Emerson gives up more goals than Wheaton.  (Flashback to 2018 - Clark started 7-0 before finishing 3-5-2 when the level of competition picked up.)  The Cougars are 1-2 vs teams with winning records so far this year.  Clark's Sean Munroe leads the conference in goals (7) and points (18).  Wheaton (3-5-1, 0-1) have scored only 1 goal in their last 4 games.   Clark 2 - Wheaton 1.

WPI @ MIT:  This contest features my guaranteed pick of the week - the Engineers will not lose.  MIT enters undefeated (4-0-3, 1-0) surprisingly scoring a couple of goals per game.  But, they have not played a team as strong defensively as WPI who enters with 5 clean sheets in 8 games allowing a paltry 7 shots per game.  WPI 1 - MIT 0.

NEWMAC weekend 1 predictions:

Emerson @ Clark:  Emerson enters 1-4-1 having dropped four straight contests by a combined score of 2-14.  Their closest game in that stretch was a 1-0 loss to Wesleyan Tuesday.  Clark is 5-1 having only lost to Brandeis.  Senior leader Sean Munroe has already racked up 5 goals and 3 assists.  The Cougars easily tame the Lions.   Clark 3 - Emerson 0.

Coast Guard @ Springfield:  Coast Guard is 3-3 having won all three road games and lost all three games at home.  More significantly, they have lost all games played against teams with winning records.  Springfield surprisingly has opened the season only  1-5-1 with their only win coming in their only home game thus far to go along with the tie at Williams.  Even though the Pride are rebuilding with only one senior starter, they should have more talent than Coast Guard and will break the Bears road winning streak.   Springfield 1 - Coast Guard 0.

Wheaton @ MIT:  Wheaton is 3-4 but has been shut out in two consecutive games (0-1 vs Endicott and a 0-6 shellacking vs Tufts).  They are 1-3 against teams with winning records with a combined 3-14 score.  MIT enters undefeated (2-0-3).  The Engineers narrowly avoid a fourth tie.  MIT 2 - Wheaton 1 (OT).

WPI @ Babson:  The two strongest teams in the conference square off week 1.  WPI (4-1-1) has surrendered only 2 goals on the season (0-1 vs. EConnSt and 1-1 vs Brandeis), but in four games against quality opponents have only scored 3 times.  Oft-injured Paul Beatty has not played since the Brandeis game.  Babson comes in 3-3 having dropped contests to regional/national powers Amherst, Brandeis and Williams.  Soph Mitch Collins leads the Beavers with 5 goals.  I give Babson a slight edge in this one as I believe it will be WPI's first game on grass.   Babson 1 - WPI 0.

2019 NEWMAC fearless predictions:

1.  Babson - must replace All-New England players Jackson Greenspan and Noah Parker, and they are well positioned to do so.  Start with having played nine freshman extensively in last year's 12-3-4 season, sprinkle in a handful of seasoned upperclassmen and a D1 transfer, add senior goalkeepers and the Beavers have the quality and depth to repeat as regular season champions. SOS should not be an issue this year with non-conference games with Amherst, Williams, Tufts, Connecticut College, Brandeis, Endicott and Eastern Conn St.

2.  WPI - with 6 returning senior starters, a well organized defense, and a healthy Paul Beatty?, the Engineers should challenge Babson for the top spot.  The non-conference schedule includes Middlebury, St Joseph's, Brandeis, E Conn St and Endicott.

3.  Clark - has just about everyone back from last year's 10-5-2 squad including their top eight leading scorers.  Senior forward Sean Munroe (All-New England 2nd team) led the team with 11 goals and 4 assists.  The Cougars fizzled in conference play last year but should benefit from having a more experienced side this time around.  Clark plays Brandeis, Trinity, and Wesleyan out of conference, but SOS may be an issue for them later.

4.  Springfield - a rebuilding year having lost stalwarts Denkel and Schneider.  The Pride have 5 goalkeepers on their roster - ALL freshman!  If Wheaton or MIT unexpectedly gels, Springfield could slip further down the standings.

5.  Wheaton - this will not be a Matt Cushing type of Wheaton team.  The Lyons are transitioning to a more staid style of play, and with losing last year's leading scorer, they lack the firepower to compete for a championship and may even struggle to qualify for the conference tournament.

6.  MIT - lost leading scorer Woo from an anemic offensive team and will struggle to score against the quality defenses in the upper echelon of the conference and region.

7.  Coast Guard - crafty but stern coach Chris Parsons will try to help navigate the Bears through this season and keep them afloat.  With little leeway, a winning season would be hard to fathom.  OK, I've got nothing on Coast Guard.  As always, they will be well coached, fit and play really hard.  A successful season would be qualifying for the conference tournament.

8.  Emerson - Coach Harkin, a former Tufts assistant, is trying to build something with 18 of the 26 players on the roster being freshmen or sophomores.  Maybe next year?

Salve Regina should be in the top 12.  Their SOS had kept them out previously, but it is 0.505 which is better than St. Joes.

                                              RvR                SOS
      Salve Regina   16-0-3        1-0-1              0.505
12.  WPI                12-2-3       1-2-2              0.514

Quote from: Mr.Right on October 29, 2018, 10:34:34 AM
Also, a pat on the back to Seabrook for having the guts and knowledge to use him. It takes sack to go to your backup on PK's because he might look good in practice but as I said there is a ton of pressure in a real live situation.

Against Trinity in the second round of the 2011 NCAA tournament, Babson Coach Anderson used a field player (midfielder Salomon Guindi) in goal for PK's in place of healthy All-Region GK Crowley.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvpmsBCFOsM

10/27/18 preview (nor'easter edition)

Clark @ WPI:  Clark advances to the conference tournament with a win or tie.  WPI wins the conference regular season championship with a win and help (Springfield and Babson must both not win).  Clark started the season with 7 straight wins against weak competition but came back to reality going 3-4-2 once the opposition got tougher.  During that stretch they are 0-2-2 away from home.  WPI has only surrendered 9 goals on the year and is undefeated in conference play (3-0-3).    Prediction:  WPI 1 - Clark 0   in  OT

Wheaton @ Springfield:  Both teams are in the conference tournament, and Springfield can still claim the regular season championship with a win combined with a Babson tie or loss.  Wheaton has won 4 of their last 5 including two wins over NESCAC foes Wesleyan and Trinity.  Springfield stumbles into this game with a loss to Endicott and a tie with WPI in their last two outings.  The Pride may not play the ball in the air quite as much as last year, but weather conditions Saturday will make things interesting.   Prediction:  Springfield 2 - Wheaton 1

10/26/18 Preview

Emerson @ MIT:   MIT has a chance to qualify for the conference tournament with a win over Emerson coupled with a Clark loss at WPI tomorrow.  The Engineers are 5-1-1 at home having outscored visitors 14-2 and notching 6 shutouts.  The Lions are 1-4 on the road and have scored only 3 goals in 6 conference games.   Prediction:  MIT 2 - Emerson 0

The Coast Guard @ Babson game originally scheduled for tomorrow has been rescheduled for Sunday at noon.  This is probably a wise move on Babson's part as Coast Guard trains extensively for action in very wet and windy conditions.   

Also, Babson has been playing exclusively on their turf field for the last month.  The grass field did look awful in September when they hosted Springfield.  Have they shut it down for the year?  If so, will this interfere with their ability to host the conference tournament as the Babson Field Hockey team will likely also be hosting games Nov 3?