I think it was actually a lot of name reputation with Hopkins that year...

Massey ratings, which seem to be a pretty accurate metric, put NCAC 7th last year out of Division III Conferences. 

http://masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=csoc2012&sub=11620&c=1

Third in 2011, 6th in 2010, albeit its a metric of top to bottom strength as opposed to the relative power of the elite teams. 

For what it is worth, Massey had DePauw 23, OWU 26, Allegheny 35, and Hiram 45.
Compare Centennial: Swarthmore 7, Dickinson 24, Haverford 28, F&M 40, Muhlenberg 44
                UAA:          Brandeis 16,   CMU 18, Rochester 29, Chicago 36, Wash U 41, Emory 43
                NESCAC:    Amherst 2, Williams 5, Wesleyan 21, Tufts 30, Bowdoin 47.

So at least by this one metric, in a down year for the Centennial, there were five teams better than Hiram.  In the UAA, there were six teams better than Hiram, and in the NESCAC, there were three teams better than DePauw and four better than Allegheny. 

And when it comes to at-large bids, seven are gone by the time you get to DePauw and 15 by the time you get to Allegheny (so Allegheny is right on the bubble as a last four team in potentially by this metric.) 

Just some thoughts. 

I think that the Centennial as a whole has been down for the past two years.  The top team(s) are still extremely competitive nationally - Dickinson two years ago, Swarthmore and Haverford last year.  And Swarthmore should be outstanding this year with almost every major piece returning after a Sweet 16 run last year. 

Pool C has only 19 bids, so if the NESCAC and UAA each get four teams in, we're down to 13 Pool C spots...year in and year out to say that the Centennial, NCAC, NJAC, Liberty, etc. each deserve three bids, that takes an additional 6-8 Pool C spots right there which, in some years, may make sense, and in other years, simply doesn't.  Having followed Centennial soccer pretty extensively of late, that Conference provides a perfect case study.  Last year, two teams deserved to make the tournament and both did.  In 2011, MAYBE Johns Hopkins was a bit of a snub at 7-1-1 in Conference but was only 10-5-3 overall.  And in 2010, Swarthmore and Muhlenberg were clearly deserving and with a weaker Pool C field Johns Hopkins got in despite an 8-8-2 record overall.  So in the last three years alone, you have a good case where a league deserves one bid, two bids, and gets a little lucky with three. 

Ultimately, it is much more about region and performance in region and the balance between conference and non-conference schedule strength...if you do well in a strong conference, it is reflected in the NCAA data at the end of the year.  And to my memory, at least by the D3soccer.com math in the past few years, there haven't been that many "snubs" in any given year...

They went out there today to win one for Wimbo and they did it.

Saturday, November 26

Muhlenberg
Ursinus
F&M

Sunday, November 27

Gettysburg
McDaniel


Monday, November 28

Columbia
Catholic
Ursinus
Dickinson
F&M

Wednesday, November 30

Gettysburg
F&M
Haverford
Dickinson

Picks for Today
Keystone
Haverford
Ohio Northern
McDaniel
Swarthmore
Franklin & Marshall
Dickinson
St. Mary's
Muhlenberg
Washington