Thanks WoostAr for the kind words.  Based on your comments regarding Edwards I crunched the latest data (last time I did it was a couple of games ago).  Here are the numbers for some of the CalTech players:

1) Murphy slows the game down and actually causes CalTech to score 2 ppg less when he is on the floor.  But, when he is on the floor CalTech decreases opposition scoring by 18ppg... a net positive of 16ppg!  Dr. Eslinger should find more PT for this young man.

2) Hogue does a nice job of increasing scoring by 4ppg and decreasing opposition scoring by 6ppg... a net of 10ppg.

3) Edwards increases scoring to the tune of 6.8ppg  and (contrary to my previous message) decreases opposition scoring by 1.6ppg... a net of 8.4ppg.

4) Runkel decreases CalTech scoring by 2.5ppg but also decreases opposition scoring by 10.4ppg for a net 7.9ppg.

5) Emezie increases scoring rate a bit more than Edwards (7.3 to 6.8 ppg) but opposition is scoring 3.9ppg more when he is on the floor for a net positive of 3.4ppg.

Crunching game data, these are the 5 CalTech players which make the team stronger when on the floor.

Basketball is a team sport, individual stats are fine, but I am far more interested on how the team, not individuals, perform with players in and out of the lineup.  Crunching SCIAC game data we can determine which players strengthen a team's performance. Here are players making the biggest impact on their teams as we head towards the home stretch this season:

• Brian Kuklok, Redlands - Redlands is on top of the standings and Kuklok is edging out his teammates Tristan Kirk and Josiah Brensdal as the biggest difference maker on the team.

• Shelby Lane, CMS - The 6'8 freshman is making quite an impact on his team.  His floor presence is huge defensively while still managing to improve the team's offensive output.  Remy Pinson, Kevin Sullivan and Cody Mivshek improve the offensive output for the team.

• Michael Cohen, Pomona-Pitzer - Cohen hasn't played in all the games, but the number crunching indicates he makes twice the difference as the second most significant contributor, Jake Klewer.

• Corey Quintana, Cal Lutheran - Another freshman center with a strong impact on his team's performance.  Quintana is edging out Michael Palmer and Jeremy Sulker-Hall who seems to make a significant defensive impact.

• Colin Zavrsnick, Chapman - The numbers indicate Zavrsnick makes a strong impact offensively and defensively for this team.  Taylor Hamasaki, Colin Chadwick and Jordan Young also make solid contributions when they are on the floor.

• Willie Mebane and Tyree Landrum, Whittier - Both these gentlemen are making significant impacts on the floor.  Mebane makes his team score better while Landrum, although a good scorer, adds a paint presence which makes the team defense stronger.

• Alex Wolpe, La Verne - Wolpe makes La Verne score better when he is on the floor while more than holding their own defensively.  Jourdan Simmonds also provides an offensive pop with no letdown on the defensive end.

• Sam Stapleton and Ty Cobb, Occidental - Oxy is struggling this year, but these two gentleman seem to improve their play while on the floor, especially on the defensive end.   Kris Montoya's presence provides an offensive boost.

• Collin Murphy, CalTech - Murphy is not getting the minutes some of his peers are getting, but his team's play, especially on the defensive end, improves the most when he is on the floor.  Michael Edwards provides the biggest offensive boost, but it is curtailed by a defensive letdown.

Quote from: OxyBob on September 18, 2012, 01:21:28 PM
Oxy had almost no guard play last season. Jack Hanley, who averaged 13 ppg, was listed as a guard but he mostly played at 3 not 2. The other 6 guards combined averaged 13.5 ppg.

OxyBob, I don't see a SCIAC team matching Oxy's front court.    Will Stapleton, Robinson and Chong have help this year?

OK, kids are back in school.  I know it is early, but how will SCIAC basketball shape up this year?  To get the discussion started, I jotted down some thoughts based on last year's results.  I would be interested in other opinions and updates based on new players.

Stags/CMS
Key Returners: Gaffaney, Pinson, Mivshek, Grodahl, Sullivan (33ppg)
Key Losses: Blees, Maceira, Anderson (33ppg)
The Stags are the defending SCIAC champs but lose their top two players in Blees and Maceira.  Don't feel too sorry for Coach Scalmanini, as his 2012-13 squad is still stacked and will be led by guards Gaffaney and Pinson.  I have no doubt this team has more than enough fire power to repeat, but it will be tougher than last year.  The backcourt will match up against anybody, but will their front court stack up?

Sagehens/PP
Key Returners: Cohen, Klukas, McAndrews, Klewer, Weiss (45ppg)
Key Losses: Zahniser, Wright, Brown, Maki (16ppg)
The Sagehens gave CMS everything they could handle in 3 tough contests last year.  Good news for coach Katsiaficas, his top 5 scorers are back!  You have to like this team's chance to win it all (league), but I am a bit concerned about its lack of size and depth.

Poets/Whittier
Key Returners: Mebane, Porter, Landrum, Ramos, Albritton (25ppg)
Key Losses: Menez, Easterman, Preer, Thomas, Johnson (62ppg)
The Poets were loaded last year, but I am not sure how they will make up the staggering 62ppg Menez, Easterman, Preer, Thomas and Johnson gave them last year.  Either Mebane, Porter, Landrum and Ramos step up big time or they bring in freshmen, like the Sagehens last year, that can put some points on the board.

Bulldogs/Redlands
Key Returners: Kuklok, Kirk, Brensdal, Calhoun, Radford (43ppg)
Key Losses: Colston, Estrada, Call (30ppg)
The Bulldogs will miss Colston's presence in the middle.  In Kirk and Kuklok, they have a competitive backcourt, but they'll need more than that to compete against PP and CMS where they will be outmatched at every position.

Kingsmen/CalLu
Key Returners: Nettles, Harris, Knudsen, Flowers, Palmer (33ppg)
Key Losses: Van Klaveren, Walton (22ppg)
The Kingsmen lose their top player in Van Klaveren and will need to reinvent themselves as more of a perimeter team.  Nettles played great last year, but he'll need plenty of help if they want to challenge for a title.

Tigers/Oxy
Key Returners: McCoy, Liebowitz, Montoya, Chong, Cobb (44ppg)
Key Losses: Hanley, Copithrone (20ppg)
The Tigers were a disappointment last year.  This year, they have the strongest front court in the league.  McCoy is flat out the best athlete in SCIAC basketball and, if he puts his mind to it, will dominate games.  Liebowitz will also find it easier now that Van Klaveren and Colston are gone.  Will the Tigers have guards?  If they find an adequate backcourt, this team is more than capable of winning SCIAC.

Leopards/LaVerne
Key Returners: Lay, Veith, Simmonds (15ppg)
Key Losses: Woodland, Napolitano, Bastos, Hoyt, Leggett (45ppg)
Similar to Whittier, it will be tough for the Leopards to make up the 45ppg Woodland, Napolitano, Bastos, Hoyt and Leggett gave them last year.  They will need a decent influx of talent to stay competitive.

Engineers/CalTech
Key Returners: Edwards, Hogue, Joel, Wang, Murphy/Runkel (42ppg)
Key Losses: none
Dr. Eslinger has everybody returning this year.  Furthermore, without an influx of talent, the Leopards and Poets could be ripe for the taking.  Could this be the year the Engineers win more than a single league game?  Some of us will be rooting them on, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Panthers/Chapman
Key Returners: JoYoung, Dragovich, Chadwick, Hamasaki, JuYoung (27ppg)
Key Losses: Lin, Ricard, Avalos (38ppg)
The Panthers lose top two players (Lin & Ricard) and 3 of their top 4 (Avalos).  They have some young talent they will depend on but probably not enough to contend with the upper echelon teams.

Early Prediction for 2012-13 Season
1) PP - have the talent to win league and SCIAC tournament
2) CMS - will give PP as much trouble as PP gave them last year.  Front line will determine success.
3) Oxy - front court will dominate.  If they find capable guards, watch out.
4) Redlands - giving them a slight edge over CalLu. 
5) CalLu - backcourt should be competitive, but front court is a question mark.
6) Chapman - strong young talent...could surprise, but don't think will challenge top two teams.
7) LaVerne - slight edge over Whittier.
8) Whittier - needs plenty of fire power.
9) CalTech - could possibly catch Whittier and/or LaVerne in a game.

BBallJunkie81's 2011-12 SCIAC Awards - By the Numbers

I am a big believer in basketball being a team sport.  Individual stats are great, but I am far more interested on how the team stats are affected with players in and out of the lineup.  What I mean is that even though a player may average 30pts per game, it is far more relevant to winning a game when looking how the team scores, not the individual.  Stats like these are not straight forward to calculate because you have to know which players are in when a stat occurs.  But, with the magic of computers, we can analyze the game data to calculate how team stats are affected by individual players being in and out of the lineup.  Furthermore, you can normalize this data by calculating the rate of these stats when a particular player is in and out.  The difference between the rate of the stats when a player is in and out is a good determinant of the impact a player makes on the team .  Before naming the players who may not have received recognition for the positive impact they had on the team, let me congratulate the SCIAC All-Conference Award winners:

Player of the Year: Chris Blees, CMS
Newcomer of the Year:  Jack Klukas, Pomona
Ted Ducey Award: Joey Anderson, CMS

First Team
•   Aaron Van Klaveren, Cal Lutheran
•   Jack Klukas, Pomona
•   Nathan Easterman, Whittier
•   Jack Colston, Redlands
•   Tyler Gaffaney, CMS
•   Mani Maceira, CMS

Second Team
•   Trevor Woodland, LaVerne
•   Greg Preer, Whittier
•   Tristan Kirk, Redlands
•   Michael Edwards, Cal Tech
•   Deshun McCoy, Occidental
•   Drew Menez, Whittier

Also, just looking at individual stats, we find the following players led their respective team in scoring:
•   Trevor Woodland, LaVerne
•   Drew Menez, Whittier
•   Chris Blees, CMS
•   Deshun McCoy, Occidental
•   Aaron Van Klaveren, Cal Lutheran
•   Michael Edwards, Cal Tech
•   Jack Colston, Redlands
•   Michael Cohen, Pomona

All, but one, recognized in the all-conference awards.

Now, for the interesting stats, which players had the biggest impact on team stats while on the floor? Is there a player who, when on the floor, the team increased its lead the most?  Is there a player who, when in the game, improved the offensive output of the team the most?  Kept the other team from scoring?  Crunching SCIAC game data allows us to identify the players who made the biggest team difference when they were on the floor (team rather than individual stats).

Scoring (team scores at highest rate when this player is on the floor)
•   Jeremy Lay, La Verne
•   Drew Menez, Whittier
•   Josiah Brensdal, Redlands
•   Jayvaughn Nettles, Cal Lutheran
•   Michael Cohen, Pomona
•   Remy Pinson, CMS
•   Jake Copithorne, Occidental
•   Joel Bryan, Caltech

Defense (opponent scores at lowest rate when this player is on the floor)
•   Kirk Tristan, Redlands
•   Aaron Van Klaveren, Cal Lutheran
•   Deshun McCoy, Occidental
•   Mani Maceira, CMS
•   Austin Napolitano, La Verne
•   Jake Klewer, Pomona
•   Jordan Ramos, Whittier
•   Ethan Boroson, CalTech

Interesting how, other than Drew Menez (Whittier) and Michael Cohen (Pomona), the court presence of a non-leading scorer was responsible for the team scoring at its highest rate!  Congratulations to these players for doing little things which don't show up on the individual stat sheet but give their teams the best chance to win.

Following are miscellaneous awards for players who topped the SCIAC in the difference between them in the lineup vs on the bench.  The players were not necessarily responsible for the stats, but the team's stat rate improved most when they were on the floor:
•   Jeremy Lay, La Verne: Field goals made
•   Mychal Estrada, Redlands: 3's made
•   Michael Cohen, Pomona: FTs made
•   Michael Cohen, Pomona:  getting to the free-throw line
•   Greg Preer, Whittier: Rebounds
•   Deshun McCoy, Occidental: Blocks
•   Kirk Tristan, Redlands: Steals
•   Kirk Tristan, Redlands: Assists
•   Chris Blees, CMS: Turnovers (least)
•   Greg Preer, Whittier: Field goals attempted
•   Josiah Brensdal, Redlands: Field goal percentage improved
•   Jordan Ramos, Whittier: Forcing turnovers

It is unfortunate that a great SCIAC season ends with another disappointing showing in the tourney.  This will lead to another, and for good reason, year of disrespect for SCIAC teams at the national level.  Here's hoping that next year's SCIAC tournament champion is strong enough to make some noise at the national level.

Quote from: Gray Fox on February 27, 2012, 08:28:20 PM
All-SCIAC Team

http://www.thesciac.org/sports/mbkb/2011-12/releases/All-SCIAC

CMS:3, Whittier:3, Redlands:2 - PP only one mention? 

Looking forward to Friday night.

I have to agree with Hooopsallthetime, CMS will easily defeat Redlands - the PP loss will refocus CMS and Redlands will pay the consequences.  At the beginning of the year I thought Redlands would match up best with CMS, but they are not playing their best ball.  No contest.

The much better game will be PP and Whittier.  I see PP having an emotional letdown after the big win and there is no way Whittier will shoot as poorly as it did the first two times these teams met.  Third time will be a charm for the Poets.

Great game last night...very entertaining!  I didn't get a great look at the Pinson foul on McAndrews, but I'll take Hoopsallthetime word that reviewing it on film revealed Pinson didn't touch him.  It is a shame when a game is decided on a bad last second call.  I will also agree with Hoopsallthetime  that the PP students went overboard (although I didn't hear some of the more outrageous things Hoopsallthetime heard). 

Where I differ from Hoopsallthetime is that prior to that last second call, it certainly seemed to me CMS was getting the benefit of the calls that night.  IMO, had the game been called evenly, PP would have had a 6-8 point lead and the last second heroics would not have been necessary. 

I am hoping Whittier and Redlands don't spoil the party and we get a rematch Saturday night.  What an atmosphere!

It has been a fun season.  Regular season finales tonight:

PP @ CMS

Best game of the night.  After a relatively weak second half of league play, PP made a statement against Whittier Saturday night.  CMS would love to rest some of its starters but I don't think they want to lose to a potential championship game opponent.  Also, as pointed out by Stag44, CMS puts an at-large bid at risk with a loss to PP and another loss in the playoffs.  The first time these clubs met, it went down to the wire with Pinson scoring on a buzzer beater (0.5 seconds).  For PP to have a chance, they will have to shoot well but CMS will make it tough as they will get out on shooters: Gaffaney on Cohen and Blees on Klukas.  The difference could be the improving play of Okpalugo.  Okpalugo, if playing with confidence, has the strength and size to pose problems in the key.  If PP develops a paint presence, watch out!   I am going to go with the upset.

PP 72 CMS 65


ULV @ Whittier

Whittier would much rather play PP in Whittier.  The only way that happens is if PP loses and Whittier wins.  In addition, Whittier is just too strong.... I will be surprised if this is close.

Whittier 94  ULV 71


CLU @ Oxy

Both of these clubs are playing much better at the end than the beginning of the season.  Both could upset anybody south of CMS.  CLU still has a prayer, but highly unlikely.  This will be a hard fought game, but I believe a bit too much Oxy at the end.

Oxy 64  CLU 57


Caltech @ UR

UR wins easily and earns the 4th seed.

UR 79  Caltech 49

Redlands (12-11, 7-5) @ Cal Lutheran (9-13, 5-7)

CLU is playing well, but doesn't match up well against Redlands.  With Pomona playing Whittier and CMS, Redlands has an opportunity to take the 3rd seed and avoid CMS in the first round. 

Redlands 74 CLU 57


Claremont (22-1, 11-1) @ Oxy (10-12, 6-6)

Since getting beat by Redlands, Oxy is playing their best basketball of the season.  I wouldn't be shocked if they catch CMS looking ahead.  It will be interesting to watch McCoy and Liebowitz matchup against Blees and Maceira.   If Liebowitz can stay out of foul trouble, and finish at the rim, it could be interesting. Pinson will have his way, but Gaffaney and Hanley will be fun to watch.  Oxy needs Montoya to shoot well.  I think it will be close, but CMS too strong at the end eliminating Oxy from playoff contention.

CMS 70 Oxy 65


Whittier (17-6, 9-3) @ Pomona (13-9, 8-4)

Best game of the night.  Whittier has taken sole possession of 2nd place and looks to revenge its loss to Pomona at Whittier.  Whittier will shoot better than the first time these two met and be more consciousness regarding Pomona's 3pt shooters.  Pomona is on a 3-3 skid losing to Occidental twice and CLU once.  They are not playing like they did earlier in the year and certainly are not shooting the ball as well.  They let a golden opportunity to clinch a playoff berth against Occidental slip and now have a tough path with Whittier followed by CMS.  Pomona gave Whittier, arguably, it's worse defeat during conference play; Whittier would love to see Pomona slip to 4th seed or eliminated from the playoffs.   After watching Pomona play Oxy on Wednesday, I don't think they are playing well enough to beat Whittier at this point. 

Whittier 79 Pomona 68


Caltech (5-18, 0-12 SCIAC) @ La Verne (5-18, 2-10)

La Verne should handle Caltech rather easily.

La Verne 74  CalTech 61

Looking forward to Saturday night.  Two excellent games on tap:

Quote from: OxyBob on February 16, 2012, 01:34:35 AM
Claremont (22-1, 11-1) @ Oxy (10-12, 6-6)
Whittier (17-6, 9-3) @ Pomona (13-9, 8-4)

Oxy fighting for their lives...can they pull off the huge upset?  Played well against Pomona; if McCoy, Hanley, Montoya, Liebowitz play well, they can beat anybody in this league.  CMS could be caught looking ahead towards their 6th street rivals on Tuesday.

Whittier goes to Claremont playing well and with revenge on their minds.  At their first meeting, Whittier jumped to a 12-0 lead only to see it vanish quickly and never regained their shooting touch.  Pomona did not look good last night and better get it together or their "surprise" season could come to an end on Tuesday against CMS.

Thanks OxyBob, it has been an exciting season and I am hoping to see a bit more activity on this board.   I am curious as to how others who have watched these teams play see the last few games.  Does anybody think Oxy or CLU have a chance at the playoffs?  CMS had its problems with Whittier and needed a last second shot to beat Pomona.  Will CMS (or SCIAC winner) make any noise in the tournament?

Claremont (21-1, 10-1) @ Cal Lutheran (9-12, 5-6)

CLU had a subpar game against Caltech, but probably had their best two games against La Verne and Pomona.  Van Klaveren should be in the running for conference MVP leading the league with 11.5 rpg and 5th in scoring at 16.3 ppg.  Beating CMS will be a tough task, he'll need plenty of help from Nettles and Harris.  CMS is on a roll and I don't see anybody who will stop them.  I would be surprised if Blees, Maceira, Gaffaney, and company don't run the table through the SCIAC playoffs.  CLU will put up a good fight, but CMS is too strong and will prevail.

CMS 73 CLU 59


Redlands (11-11, 6-5) @ La Verne (5-17, 2-9)

IMO, Redlands has been a slight disappointment this year.  At the beginning of the season, I thought they were going to be the strongest challenger to CMS. They are coming off three straight tough losses to Pomona, Whittier and CMS.  They should regroup and win out although I wouldn't take La Verne or CLU lightly; both have what it takes to pull off an upset.  Woodland and Napolitano will have to step up and get some help if they are to pull this one off.  Redlands has to win out and hope Pomona struggles to avoid being the 4th seed who'll play CMS in first playoff game.

Redlands 70 La Verne 64


Oxy (9-12, 5-6) @ Pomona (13-8, 8-3)

Best game of the night.  Oxy has 4 strong players in McCoy, Hanley, Liebowitz and Montoya.  I expected Oxy to be one of the top 4 teams this year.  Pomona has been a surprise.  They were not competitive last year, lost their top scorer, and here they are tied for second in the conference due to strong performances from freshman and sophomores.  Having said that, Pomona has been struggling ever since losing to Oxy in Pasadena.  Oxy dominated them with Hanley and McCoy.  If Pomona loses this one, they will probably lose out but still back into the playoffs due to Oxy and CLU losing to CMS.  Reward...first round loss to CMS.  I am not sure this is an upset given their first game, but I am going with Oxy on this one.

Oxy 66 Pomona 59


Whittier (16-6, 8-3) @ Caltech (5-17, 0-11)

Whittier is playing great basketball right now and licking their chops to get revenge on Pomona on Saturday.  Too much pace for CalTech as Whittier jumps out to a large lead and maintains it.

Whittier 91  CalTech 59