This should be a great weekend for D3 football. I expect all 4 games to be close. I have played both Wesley and Mount Union within the past 5 years with both games being at their places. Taking the long ride out there will not help Wesley. As many people have mentioned the Wesley defense is not as great as in years past. The Wesley offense converts 58% of their 3rd down plays, so for Wesley to have a chance the offense must come close to that % to kept Mount's O off the field. With Callahan at QB Mount will finally truly be tested on defense this year. My prediction is a close 1st half but eventually MU pulls away with Wesley scoring a late touchdown to only lose by 10. It will be interesting to see early if Wesley tries to establish a run game to be balanced or comes out trying to challenge the MU secondary with spread formations.

MU 38 Wesley 28

In my opinion a pretty even bracket this year. Committee got it right in essentially seeding the top 4 teams as the #1 seeds. If there is any year to put Whitewater and Mount Union on the same side is when one is not the AQ and has one loss. Now you have to hope if one of those teams makes it to the finals the opponent makes it a game or even wins. Now onto my view for east region teams.

St lawrence vs mt. union- mtu rolls. just how big is the final margin.

Albright vs Norwich- I see Albright winning this one but I wold not surprised if this is decided by  touchdown or less.

Wesley vs Framingham- My game of the week in the east region. I am leaning towards this one being a shootout. High 30s for both teams I see happening. I think Wesley will squeak by a touchdown.

Western New England vs Hopkins- I see this as a quality Hopkins team. I expect them to win by double digits. Also I can they see them reaching the quarters for the 1st time since2009.  They should have home field for their 2nd round matchup vs Wes or Fram.

Sals vs Cortland- Another game I see as being a high scoring affair. Easily can see both teams in the 40s. This would be my second game of the week. I want to learn toward Cortland being at home but feel the Gulls option attack will win out in end wearing down the dragons.

After watching the Rowan-Montclair game, those 2 offenses made it difficult to watch. I understand they have a great running back but to switch to a pro-style from the spread didn't make much sense to me. Essentially both teams ran the same offense which produced very little excitement. For MSU it has been decades since they opened the season 0-3. Unless something crazy happens their chance for the NJAC crown is less than 1%. The defense played very well again but with such a vanilla offense there is only so much a defense can do.

For Rowan I don't see them scoring enough points to hang with Wesley and probably Salisbury. Right now it see as Wesley vs Salisbury to decide to conference race. (I know it is still very early.) Rowan could make it interesting but they have to go to Wesley, Newport and Salisbury. However I am still unsure of what to make of Newport, Frostburg and Kean.

rams1102 - As the only remaining and consistent Red Hawks poster (where did the other's from the past go?), what do you think is happening with this team? With all of the returning players on both sides of the ball, I really expected a lot more out of them. They had two weeks to get over that DelVal upset, but yesterday was brutal. Do you think they bounce back or does this look like a 7-3, 6-4 team on the fringes of an ECAC bid?

I think the team is above average team but they did lose the NJAC defensive player of the year and the special teams player of the year as well as their kicker. So their special teams has seemed to take a major step back this year. The offense has never been explosive since the late 90s and early 2000s. Losing to Salisbury who runs the triple option is not surprising since they have not seen it in quite a few years. A general statement is the NJ football schools I think need to expand their recruiting bases to get more PA NY and Delaware kids and not just rely on a NJ base.

Winner take all this Saturday for the NJAC with Morrisville at MSU. Morrisville would be completely eliminated with a loss with MSU having a slim chance at Pool C with a loss. Looking ahead to the playoffs I find a hard time seeing the winner of the NJAC getting anything higher than a 4 seed barring any upsets.

Way too early East region seeding (based on UWW in the west, Mt. Union in the North, Wesley in the East and MHB in the south as 1 seeds)

1. Wesley
2. Hobart
3. MAC winner if they finish 10-0
4. NJAC winner or SJF
5. SJF or NJAC Winner
6. NEFC or ECFC
7. ECFC or NEFC
8. MAC runner up at 9-1

I don't see the east getting a true 1 seed even with Hobart's and the potential MAC team having a high ranking as well. Interesting if next year Wesley becomes a true east team being in the NJAC. I would say there is a clear divide between the top 3 and 4-8. I put the 2nd MAC team at 8 simply because of travel and avoiding a MAC rematch in the 1st round.

But with the NCAA, this can be all blown up with 4 teams being in the east (hobart,sjf,ecfc,nefc) and 4 in the south (2 MACs, NJAC winner and wesley)

One of the big questions for MSU is the progress of Davies the QB has made from last year. I think the RB position will be solid and they return their top 3 receivers. Question on defense is the ability to replace Sakiri and Avento at the LB position and Mancino at the safety position.

I see the NJAC coming down to Rowan and Cortland. Right now I give the slight edge to Cortland since they have Rowan at home.

1.  Cortland          9-1     7-0               Return QB, RB and WR. Return top 10 tacklers on defense.
2.  Rowan            8-2      6-1               Return QB and WR. DE returns who is a game changer. Have to replace running game.
                                                           Everyone  is  high on them but not Cortland. Don't understand why.
3.  TCNJ                7-3      5-2               Return QB and RBs. Need to replace quality defense losses.
4.  MSU                 6-4     4-3                Lose top layers on defense could be tough to stop offenses. Need better QB play.
5.  Kean               4-6      3-4                Never know with transfers each year.
6.  Mville              4-6      3-4                Best QB in league? Offense should be explosive again. If they play any defense can be a force.
7.  SVA                 3-7      2-5                Complete unknown.     
8.  WP                  2-8      1-6                 Another dismal campaign

Once rosters come out this will most likely change. I see Cortland and Rowan as front runners. Morrisville is my dark horse if they can play any defense and the offense doesn't miss a beat from last year. I can see 2 teams making the playoffs with most teams having competitive OOC games.

One of the reasons teams don't schedule a team that is a consensus  top 10 is cost. Some D3 teams limit costs but not having overnight trips. The second reason is a team can schedule a mediocre out of conference game that is in region and win that and can lose one in conference game to go 9-1 to give them a good argument if they don't get their conference automatic bid.

With the NJAC bringing in Wesley, I can see more teams from the NJAC scheduling lower quality OOC games because the strength of the conference.

Big time announcement for both leagues. The expansion of rosters for the NJAC was the right move because I don't think Wesley moves if the cap was still in place. For the 5 New Jersey schools I don't think any of them ever have 100 players (around 90 most of the time).

I see the NJAC being a safe bet for a 2 bid league every year starting in 2015. I see Wesley being the top team because they will continue their ways without having to change much. For William Paterson it will be tough for them since they are usually a 500 team but now have to lay much tougher competition.

The recruiting battles should grow more intense to see if the NJ schools can keep the talent home and not let it continue to go to Wesley and Salisbury. I also thinks that the NJ schools should expand their recruiting areas like Wesley and Salisbury have done over the years. Also should be interesting to see how the teams schedule their 1 out of conference game considering the higher quality of the conference schedule with the possibility of multiple top 25 match ups in one season..

Well looks like the NJAC is a 1 bid team this year. Best team to get a 1st round home game is Rowan (more than TCNJ ).

Brockport should take care of Kean. Kean offense is just as horrible as MSU's. (BPort 27- Kean 7)

Rowan vs WP: This game is a complete mystery to me. Which Rowan team shows up will be interesting (the one that beat Wesley or loss to Morrisville?)With WP at home it should be a close game. (Rowan 28- WP 21)

NJAC Game of the Week- Cortland vs TCNJ- (never would have predicted this at the start of the season). Cortland has played better competition but they are too unpredictable with consistent offense and defense in both games. A shootout favors Cortland which I think it will turn into with Cortland pulling away early in the 4th (CSU 35- TCNJ 21)

MSU vs Morrisville: MSU has a long trip to face an NJAC title contender (strange to say that). I can easily see Morrisville winning by 21 because the MSU O can't get out of their own way. (Morrisville 31- MSU 10)

Very surprising week in the conference.

Rowan vs Morrisville: I did not see this one coming. The Morrisville offense is very good. If the defense can play better they will have a chance to win the remaining games. Rowan just couldn't put anything together and now have to play Wesley (at home). Even with the loss they are still in the NJAC race.

Brockport vs WP: I give up trying to figure out the Brockport team. They win a game they should win but give up 34 points. Big game at home vs Cortland this upcoming weekend.

TCNJ vs Kean: TCNJ has to be a surpirse by most people. Kean offense is just as bad as MSU offense.

MSU vs Cortland: Cortland won the game easily after some 1st qtr fight from the Hawks. The offense once again was horrible. Punter fumbles a snap on the 1st drive and then qb throws an int on the next series.

The way Morrisville, Brockport and WP can score the Hawks will have a tough time winning them. The only game I see them maybe being a favorite in is the Kean game.

Upcoming week: Big showdown between TCNJ and Morrisville (who thought that would be said at the start of the season).

I think the NJAC is down to 1 bid now with Rowan losing. No way a 3 loss 2nd place NJAC team gets an atlarge.

The past 3 years we have seen no true east region bracket. In regards to Hobart being a top 5 contender team is hard for me to consider because of their schedule which has also been mentioned. I have played both Wesley and Mount Union at their places and I can't think Hobart has that type of high level talent (maybe this is the year they prove me wrong). Right now I would favor all 6 teams ahead of them in the top 25 and until there is a true East #1; going on the road in the playoffs to these top teams is very tough.

Speaking from an NJAC point of view; their recruiting needs to expand especially for the NJ teams reaching out of state. The New England schools take plenty of NJ kids every year.

Hobart has players from 11 different states which I think is one reason they have been able to move into challenging the elite teams.

Weekend wrap up- already had my rant on MSU.

Rowan vs Brockport- back and forth game. Once again B-port can't seem to win tight games. Schedule still plays in their favor and they are still right in the race unless they drop an egg vs WP next week.

Morrisville vs WP- Is the box score for total yards right even with that high of a score? lol. Morrisville 795 yards to WP 592 yards. WP goes up 28-0 at home and cant close out the game has to be a let down for them. Could be another shoot out with B-Port next week.

Cortland vs Kean- Cortland takes care of business at home. 2 road game at MSU and B-Port with TCNJ at home leading up to the Rowan game in Glassboro on 11/2 which I think will determine the automatic bid.

Upcoming week: We will find out if TCNJ is a quality team when they play Kean and if Morrisville can put something together vs Rowan at home. Cortland is at MSU. Not expecting alot from the Hawks but it will be their homecoming so it should help alittle.

Best case scenario for 2 bids for NJAC would be for Cortland to be 8-2 beating Rowan for the auto bid leaving Rowan at 8-2 with losses vs Cortland and at Del Val for a Pool C Bid.

Quote from: phil on October 04, 2013, 09:43:38 PM
That is one anemic Montclair offense!

I would have to agree with that. Very sloppy game by both teams. Alot of penalties by both and the turnovers by TCNJ which kept the game very close. MSU D played good not great.

MSU goes for a fake fg in the 4th but nobody blocked then they get it back 2 plays later from a TCNJ fumble and get a fg blocked. MSU run game non existent with a 2.5 per carry average on the season and already given up 28 tfls for 106 yrds.. Can't win much with that average. For some comparisons in 2011 MSU averaged 5.2 per carry and gave up 54 tfls 175 yds.

From what I seen with the O, there are players at the skill positions but with a pocket passer there seems to be a contrast with the QBs and them. Eventuallty MSU has to move towards a spread O with a dual threat qb unless you find a stud passer.

Looking ahead the only game I see them favored in is Morrissville and even that is on the road. I see them finishing 4-6 at best.

Another tough weekend for NJAC teams. Brockport collapses against Alfred and Cortland couldn't get a quality ooc win.

William Paterson and TCNJ won as I expected.

MSU vs Rowan game: very boring game from an offense viewpoint. In the 2nd half Rowan seemed fine going 3 and out because the Montclair O couldn't get out of their own way. MSU will have a tough time winning games if the O has to score 21 points. Another road trip for them as they go to TCNJ for another Friday night game.

Big conference weekend coming up with Brockport vs Rowan and Kean vs Cortland.