Quote from: GUBFL on November 02, 2014, 09:47:53 AM
Went to the Bowdoin/Tufts game, weather was miserable!!! On a very wet surface, almost anything can happen, but after about the first 10/15 minutes, it was clear who the better team was. Felt bad for Tufts who had a hard time getting over mid field in the second half.

Now on to the semis. On paper, Williams over Middlebury and Bowdoin over Conn and Williams over Bowoin in the final. After watching the earlier Bowdoin/Conn, Bowdoin was the stronger team, but Conn is vastly improved over prior years so who knows.

Massey gives the following win probabilities for the semis:

Midd v Williams: 16% / 71%
Bowdoin v Conn: 40% / 45%

If you assume that each team as an equal chance of winning if a game ends in a tie and goes to PKs, the probability of advancing to the finals are:
Williams  77.5% / Midd 22.5%
Bowdoin 47.5% / Conn 52.5%


Looking at it slightly differently, the chances of seeing a particular finals matchup:
Williams v Bowdoin  36.8%
Williams v Conn       40.7%
Midd v Bowdoin       10.7%
Conn v Midd            11.8%

The last 10 days have been rough for Amherst. They have now lost 3 straight games, two of them to unranked teams. Could this unlucky stretch have cost them an NCAA bid or is their resume still good enough to get an invite?

Quote from: jc2 on October 29, 2014, 10:35:12 AM
One more NESCAC regular season game today that will decide the last playoff spot. Looks like Hamilton and Wes are out.

There's an old adage that when a team wins it's because the players played well. When a team loses, it's because they were poorly coached.

What role did coaching play in the Wes season? Did the team improve as the season went on?

Let's assume that each of the top 4 seeds has an 85% of advancing into the next round. The chance that all 4 advance is ~52%. 

Quote from: amh63 on October 08, 2014, 09:07:16 PM
Amherst gets beat in the second half by ECSU....2-1.  Could say it was cold and under the lights...on turf....etc.  Plain and simple the Warriors came out strong in the second half and dominated the Lady Jeffs.  The Warriors go over 500 for the season.  The announcers stated that Amherst dominated the first half.  Halftime lead was 1-0, Amherst.  In the 2nd half with less than 20 minutes to go and the lead holding, Amherst quite mentally and physically.  The goal that tied the game with 15 minutes left was a mistake by Gibson of Amherst and Burwick, the GK that fell down coming out for the ball.  The game winner was off a corner kick and a fine header that saw Amherst and its GK out of position.  Fine shot by the ECSU player. 
I am disappointed..yes.  Amherst had the advantage in talented players..ECSU had the advantage in coaches....imo.

Maybe Amherst uses two different fields? It really looked like turf with a lots of lining (perhaps for lacrosse).

The latest NCAA Regional rankings are out. Four NESCAC teams in the top 6.

i watched the last bit of the Amherst game last night. It looked like they were playing on a turf field. Is this something new at Amherst. In prior years their games were played on grass. This would make Amherst the only women's NESCAC team to play on turf.

One more NESCAC regular season game today that will decide the last playoff spot. Looks like Hamilton and Wes are out.

Quote from: Ocean 1 on October 28, 2014, 05:35:29 PM

Quote from: Becks on October 28, 2014, 02:40:14 PM

Quote from: jc2 on October 28, 2014, 07:29:35 AM
I suspect most people are predicting that Conn, Amherst and Bowdoin will all win their last games and end up in a 3-way tie for second place. Massey lists the chances of winning as: Amherst 72%, Conn 84% and Bowdoin 68%. The chance of all 3 winning is then .72 x .84 x .68 = .41.

Surprisingly, if the Massey odds are accurate, it's more likely that at least one of the teams will lose than all 3 will win.

Only time will tell.

Actually, looking back at this. You are correct that the chance of all 3 winning is .41. But that doesn't mean it is more likely that at least one of them will lose, because ties are also possible. Massey provides both teams' chances of winning, and using those figures, we can easily calculate the chances of a tie as well. Here's what Massey says are Conn's, Amherst's and Bowdoin's chances of winning, tying and losing.

Conn - 84%, 9%, 7%
Amherst - 72%, 13%, 15%
Bowdoin - 68%, 13%, 19%

So, if the likelihood of those teams getting a win or a tie is 93%, 85%, and 81%, respectively, the likelihood of all 3 getting a win or a tie is the product of those 3 or 64%, which means that the chances of at least one of the three losing is only 36%. So, while it is more likely that one of the 3 will lose or tie (59%) than it is that all 3 will win (41%), it is more likely that all 3 will win (41%) than that one of them will lose (36%).

Actually, only two of the three won.

And as we now know, and as was predicted accurately from the elegant amount of analysis and collaboration...all 3 in fact did win!!!

Quote from: Ocean 1 on October 27, 2014, 09:32:20 AM

Quote from: jc2 on October 27, 2014, 07:54:47 AM
Entering the last few days of NESCAC play, only Wesleyan is out of the playoffs. Looks like there is a good chance of a 3 way tie for second thru fourth place and the tie break rules will get put to good use. If Amherst, Conn and Bowdoin do indeed win their last game, how will they line up?

It would seem that if Amherst, Conn and Bowdoin win their last games and finish with the same point total, and assuming Williams wins v. Hamilton, the seeding order should go as follows by virtue of the tie-breaker rule (i.e., both Conn and Bowdoin beat Amherst and Bowdoin beat Conn during the regular season):

- #1 Williams
- #2 Bowdoin
- #3 Conn
- #4 Amherst

Can anyone validate?

Looks like this is going to be the final finish order.

Quote from: Becks on October 28, 2014, 02:54:36 PM
If Wes fails to beat Conn today, it will be the first time they have gone winless in NESCAC since 2003.

Winless NESCAC teams to date (reverse chronological order):
2009 Conn 0-9-0
2008 Conn 0-8-1
2007 Colby 0-7-2
2006 Conn 0-8-1
2006 Trinity 0-8-1
2003 Wesleyan 0-9-0
2002 Wesleyan 0-8-1
2000 Wesleyan 0-8-1

Add Wes to the list. 

Quote from: Becks on October 28, 2014, 02:40:14 PM

Quote from: jc2 on October 28, 2014, 07:29:35 AM
I suspect most people are predicting that Conn, Amherst and Bowdoin will all win their last games and end up in a 3-way tie for second place. Massey lists the chances of winning as: Amherst 72%, Conn 84% and Bowdoin 68%. The chance of all 3 winning is then .72 x .84 x .68 = .41.

Surprisingly, if the Massey odds are accurate, it's more likely that at least one of the teams will lose than all 3 will win.

Only time will tell.

Actually, looking back at this. You are correct that the chance of all 3 winning is .41. But that doesn't mean it is more likely that at least one of them will lose, because ties are also possible. Massey provides both teams' chances of winning, and using those figures, we can easily calculate the chances of a tie as well. Here's what Massey says are Conn's, Amherst's and Bowdoin's chances of winning, tying and losing.

Conn - 84%, 9%, 7%
Amherst - 72%, 13%, 15%
Bowdoin - 68%, 13%, 19%

So, if the likelihood of those teams getting a win or a tie is 93%, 85%, and 81%, respectively, the likelihood of all 3 getting a win or a tie is the product of those 3 or 64%, which means that the chances of at least one of the three losing is only 36%. So, while it is more likely that one of the 3 will lose or tie (59%) than it is that all 3 will win (41%), it is more likely that all 3 will win (41%) than that one of them will lose (36%).

Correct as usual. I used the term "lose" rather loosely. I meant to imply that failing to get 3 points would drop that team out of the three-way tie for 2nd place.

I suspect most people are predicting that Conn, Amherst and Bowdoin will all win their last games and end up in a 3-way tie for second place. Massey lists the chances of winning as: Amherst 72%, Conn 84% and Bowdoin 68%. The chance of all 3 winning is then .72 x .84 x .68 = .41.

Surprisingly, if the Massey odds are accurate, it's more likely that at least one of the teams will lose than all 3 will win.

Only time will tell.

Entering the last few days of NESCAC play, only Wesleyan is out of the playoffs. Looks like there is a good chance of a 3 way tie for second thru fourth place and the tie break rules will get put to good use. If Amherst, Conn and Bowdoin do indeed win their last game, how will they line up?   

Massey is predicting a 55% chance of a Tufts win and a 31% chance of a Hamilton victory. It gives Trinity a 34% chance of beating Conn (and Conn a 52% chance of winning).  It predicts only a 10% chance that Bates will beat Williams