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Messages - d3wbbfan

#1
Region 10 women's basketball / Re: Northwest Conference
February 27, 2015, 07:24:16 AM
My thoughts on Thursday night's #3 at #2 NWC semifinal. (As for Whitman at George Fox, I'm hoping it'll be available on demand Friday. I had Live Stats on, as both NWC semis were being played at the same time. I'd rather watch it first, before breaking that game down here. If I can, I will.)

#2 Puget Sound 71, #3 Whitworth 64: The surging Loggers (23-3, 13-3) toppled the Pirates (21-5, 12-4) at home for the second time in 5 days. Getting out to an early 10-2 lead 5 minutes in, UPS got unexpectedly solid point production from all 5 starters. 1st team All-NWC performers Amanda Forshay (20 points) and Emily Sheldon (13 points) led the way, with both 2nd team all-conference pick Katy Ainslie and SO Alex Noren adding 11 each. More surprising was SR PG Ashley Agcaoili, who averages just 5 ppg, who chipped in with 9. Six, however, were true daggers, both coming on made 3-balls immediately after quick Whitworth TO's, on consecutive Logger possessions at the 14:51 and 14:11 mark in the 2nd half - the second triple extended the Logger advantage to 15, at 48-33. Whitworth usually has a great 2-3 minutes after a Higgs TO, but Agcaoili's duo from deep instantly poured cold water on the momentum Whitworth usually derives from its TOs. Timing is everything. The Bucs still had a big run in them, however, although it required tremendous effort. Over the next 12 minutes, repeated dribble-drives were key to a 31-17 Whitworth run, and a layup by Katara Belton-Sharp with 2:07 left cut the Puget Sound lead to one, at 65-64. After Noren went 1-2 at the line, their lead was two when Pirate SR Kendra Knutsen missed a 3-ptr from the left corner with 1:36 left, that would've given the Bucs their first lead. Tonight Whitworth got beaten with their own M.O., as that Belton-Sharp hoop were their last points, while it was the Loggers who sank 6-7 late FTs to secure the win, and punch their ticket to the NWC finals. It's scary. The Loggers are still getting tangibly better as a group. They've clearly built on each big win and each tough loss this league campaign. The one word I would use is confident. I'll be surprised if they don't give a great account of themselves in Newberg on Saturday. I would caution George Fox to come ready to play, as they likely expected to see Whitworth advance. This UPS team can really play, and, most dangerously, they're just peaking as a team now.

Unlike last Saturday, Coach Higgs did unveil her "pack of wild dogs" defense. Yet, to their credit, the Loggers were able to navigate through it like butter, with only a very few exceptions. UPS was so skilled at quickly escaping Whitworth's full-court pressure that I recall seeing at least 5 easy UPS hoops being scored, as a direct result of doing so. Loree Payne's players were so not bothered by Whitworth's maniacal D that these multiple scores looked more like secondary fast break hoops, rather than an effective press break. As such, the Pirates found themselves in 3-on-1/4-on-2 defensive mismatches at the goal. Being short numbers on D just doesn't happen to Whitworth. Overall, UPS had 13 assists and 12 turnovers. That stat also doesn't happen to Whitworth. The Bucs' normal box score for opponents, over the past 2-3 seasons, regularly shows twice as many TO's than assists. It isn't that Whitworth's D has worsened recently. What has happened is that, to UPS, the "novelty" of it seems to have worn off a bit. In fact, Puget Sound appeared to now view it as an opportunity to score easily, instead of something to fear. I suppose it's only natural, as UPS has now seen this type of super-intense, 94-feet, in-your-face D employed against it 7 times this year, between the Bucs, George Fox, and, of late, Whitman. Still, the sky-high level of success that Puget Sound had against it did surprise me. Just because you know something is gonna happen, it still doesn't mean that you're gonna be able to overcome it/negate its effects. This was one of those times, however. Coach Payne and every Logger player deserve a tremendous amount of credit for this win. UPS' defense didn't exactly take the night off. They held Lexie Zappone scoreless, were able to minimize the offensive damage by McConnell (16) and Belton-Sharp (14), and held key inside player Jessica Kramer to just 4. FR Callie Harwood stepped up big for Whitworth, scoring 14, while Knutson hit double-figures (12-a rarity for her) for the second straight game, in a losing effort.

While I did expect Coach Higgs to at least show glimpses of multiple defenses vs UPS, she didn't. She again stayed man for the full 40, allowing UPS to stay with the offensive system/sets the Logger players execute so very well. I almost always agree with Higgs' choices, but I didn't happen to in this instance. In closing, unlike last weekend's game, there was a wide disparity in free throws taken Thursday, in favor of the home team. In fact, Whitworth (24-70; 34%) scored more total FGs than UPS (22-53; 42%). The Bucs went 13-16 at the line, while the Loggers took twice as many (24-32). Still, I thought this game was fairly officiated. Whitworth had to fight for tons of offensive rebounds off missed shots, putting them in danger of committing more fouls of aggression, which they did. In the end, UPS won this game because of 1) their press break, 2 ) by shooting better from the field than Whitworth did, and 3) defending the Pirates O at their usual, super high level. Despite scoring 2 more FGs, Whitworth shot the ball quite poorly Thursday - a recurring theme, of late. Despite their lack of height, the Bucs take more shots from 8 feet and in than any other team in the NWC. Generally, the closer the shots are launched from, the higher the %. And after starting the season 14-0, the Pirates are just 7-5 in their last 12. Granted, the level of competition of late has been very high. But Whitworth has been shooting their lowest FG% against the very best teams they are playing. This is not unusual - common, in fact. They've shot 38% or less in 10 of their 26 games. The Pirates did manage to win all 5 games when it happened against non-elite opponents. But they've lost all 5 games when it's happened vs. the NWC playoff teams. I'm also noticing some individual player fatigue. From out of nowhere, SR Jessica Kramer has been such an undersized, key inside cog for Whitworth this year. Still, she's played 10 times as many minutes this season as she had during her first 3 years. To her credit, she is categorically not a "pace yourself" type of player. The polar opposite, in fact. But it's clear to me watching, that she's starting to wear down physically. It's a long season - especially when it's your first season as a regular. Now Whitworth has over a week to rest up for the NCAAs, and the Bucs should really benefit from their mini-break.
#2
Region 10 women's basketball / Re: Northwest Conference
February 22, 2015, 03:26:38 PM
Congratulations to Coach Loree Payne and Puget Sound (22-3, 13-3), who sent her 6 SRs out the right way on Senior Day with an 82-78 home win over Whitworth (21-4, 12-4). I'd say this was Coach Payne's biggest win ever, in her 5 seasons as Logger HC. They will rightfully move past the Bucs in the national Top 25, and in the next NCAA West Region rankings. The win also clinched 2nd place in the NWC for UPS, meaning these same two teams will again do battle, in a #3 vs #2 NWC semifinal, Thursday night in Tacoma. (The other semi pits #4 Whitman (16-9, 11-5) against top-seeded and unbeaten George Fox (25-0, 16-0).

As always, I'll try and go beyond the box score. First off, the most points the Bucs have given up all season was 70, in their blowout losses to GFU and Whitman. Except, that is, for *both* of the Puget Sound games. Earlier in Spokane, Whitworth allowed 77 (on 31 UPS FGs), but scored 83 points themselves, to escape with the win. Saturday's game saw many more whistles than the earlier contest, which was truly a shame because both teams are veteran clubs who've proven repeatedly that they know how to play quality defense without fouling. This crew, however, wrongly determined them to be poor defenders who were hacking each other left and right. At least the stripes were equally unjust, calling 26 fouls on UPS and 25 on Whitworth. The Loggers (28-34) outshot the Pirates (26-36) at the line, which rarely happens to Whitworth. For all the Bucs' success, this team has always had a fairly small margin for error. They count on outshooting their opponents at the stripe. They are *such* a high effort group. McConnell and Kramer overcome their lack of height by finding small open interior seams, for short Js from 8 ft and in. They depend on those shots to regularly drop in, and they usually do. And on D, if the Pirates can't generate pressure TO's/points, or double down low against taller bigs when needed, they can become vulnerable.

Puget Sound's offense is far more structured than the other 3 NWC playoff teams are. It's not a stretch to say that 2/3rds of the Logger shots come straight from Payne's playbook. Their spacing is impeccable, and they try to have enough 3-pt threats in the lineup (although as a team, they shoot just average % from deep) so man defense is mostly their opponents' D of choice. Besides their prowess on D, what the top NWC teams all do that other top WBB teams don't do nearly as well is make multiple, quick passes, while still being under total control. It's like the ball is 200 degrees, but yet their hands never burn. Top teams in this league *really* reverse the ball, and almost never take a perimeter shot that's not both an open one and a good one. And UPS, whose players are always exactly where they are supposed to be, are best at this. And makes them especially hard to double on D. Because if a defender decides to hedge/cheat off their man, the resulting open player is usually at a spot on the floor where they are especially comfortable shooting from. In that regard, Payne's system is very well designed.

Still, counter-intuitive as it may seem, I don't think Helen Higgs really minded much at all finishing 3rd in the league, and going back out to UPS to play them next Thursday. Don't forget: Whitworth is the two-time defending NWC tourney champs, with many core players from those clubs still intact. And where were they seeded both years? Third. They played (and won) all four of their NWC tourney games on the road. In fact, they were all set to host George Fox last year, in the 2-3 game, until they were upset, out of nowhere, by L&C in the reg season finale. Just 5 days later, they blow out Fox, in Newberg. I get the sense that the Bucs much prefer being/playing the role of underdog. It seems to suit their personality, as a perennially undersized group. I've seen the Bucs play 20 times this year. Coach Higgs has 3-5 go-to plays that she keeps in reserve, for when she really needs points now. I noticed she didn't run a one of those last night. Even when her kids shrunk a late 10-12 point lead to 4, inside of the last minute. I'm not saying she didn't want to win Saturday. What I am saying is that 95%+ of coaches I know coach "pedal to the metal". They coach *every* close game as if it's their last one. They want the W that day. Bad. They'll worry about tomorrow tomorrow. I've also seen a very few master tacticians on the sidelines, who see it a bit differently - they are willing to lose a battle to win the war.     

Coach Higgs doesn't publicize this fact at all, but she's a PhD, and is a tenured professor of Kinesiology at Whitworth. She is an exceptionally bright woman. While watching her, game in and game out, I've noticed that she just doesn't miss a whole lot out there on the floor, regarding game situations/adjustments. Still, she's the first to admit that, "In the end, you've got to have the horses." Having a smart, highly skilled bench coach has a profound impact on a program, and its overall success. To me, it's the #1 most important factor. The truth is that there are far fewer coaches at her high level, especially in WBB, than I wished there were. Saturday, there were a couple of adjustments Higgs could've easily made, to instantly make life more difficult for the Loggers. Especially after surrendering 77 points to them earlier, you know she'd examined other options. Yet, crazy like a fox, I opine that she's saving all her best "Plan B's" for next week, and opted to approach Senior Day the exact same way Saturday that she did in Spokane. Man D for the full 40. Yeah, she pressed UPS a little yesterday, but there was none of that "pack of wild dogs" D Whitworth can unleash at any moment. That I saw the Bucs play in all of their recent NWC playoff and NCAA games. And that I will absolutely see them play next Thursday night. And while zone isn't Whitworth's D of choice (they're just so good at man), they also play excellent zone D, as they've had to go to it on occasion, when the situation has dictated. Employ it here, just to get UPS out of their comfort zone. If you switch defenses each trip, it gives the Loggers something new and different to worry about. And when your offense is fairly structured, the first thing UPS needs to determine is what D is being played against them, so they can adjust on O accordingly. Lewis & Clark played predominantly zone all year, and it gave a number of teams trouble - Puget Sound and Whitworth among them.

That said, just because I see a few things the veteran HC Higgs will likely employ Thursday, attempting to maximize her chances for victory, and that I do give Whitworth a slight edge in the upcoming 2-3 NWC 14-15 semi, largely due to its recent postseason success, it doesn't mean that Coach Payne isn't gonna be just as ready to counter Higgs strategies, and unveil a few surprises of her own. I don't think it'll be too long before Loree, a brilliant young coach, moves on to her next HC challenge. Most know of her pedigree as both a player and AC at her alma mater, Washington of the Pac-12. So I'll enjoy watching Loree skillfully guide her Loggers, for as long as she's still a part of things here in the NWC. UPS beating Whitworth again Thursday would absolutely not be an upset. The Loggers are the higher seed. Puget Sound has all the things I like to watch in a team. They're smart, they work relentlessly, they've been there/done that, they're highly skilled, and they're disciplined. I could also see further recent, growth. From that narrow home loss to George Fox. Saturday, with another late lead against a top team, this time Puget Sound did not "blink". They continued to execute, to stay in the present, to make their FTs, and to play to win, instead of not to lose. Those who've read my earlier posts know I've been singing the Loggers' praises all season long. May the better team(s) Thursday and Saturday win, and here's hoping for quality, high-level, injury-free games, in pursuit of both the league's automatic bid, and NCAA tourney success, for which the top 3 seeds are locks!
#3
Region 1 women's basketball / Re: NESCAC Hoops
February 22, 2015, 06:59:03 AM
Quote from: amh63 on February 21, 2015, 04:43:48 PM
Amherst wins over Colby by 20 plus...low scoring.  The lineup that started was a "big" lineup.  What I found interesting was the absence of normal PG Renner in the lineup/ game.
amh63, one of the LJ student announcers, after initially wondering out loud why Renner hadn't started/wasn't playing Sat vs Colby, went on to state late in the first half that he'd just noticed Renner sitting on the Amherst bench, in street clothes. I hate to see starters/key contributors for any team not able to be to play - especially at this time of year.

And congrats on your girl Meg - that's two straight games now, where she's displayed the exceptional form she so often showed in games pre-injury.

In that same spirit, it was fantastic to see Kelsey Morehead back out there for Tufts. Based on the brace, I guess the issue was her left knee. Her mobility/quickness looked to be at just about pre-injury levels, which is great news all around.

Bowdoin looked solid and businesslike vs Middlebury. I've become a big fan of first-year HC KJ Krasco, and I can't wait to see how her team's young core progresses after she adds a couple of her own recruiting classes to the mix.

Williams dodged a major bullet at home. Down 10 at the half, Hynes tweaked a knee early in the 2nd half and had to sit, spurring the Eph comeback. Even when Mairead came back in later, re-stabilizing the Camels, there were times when it looked like she was basically playing on one leg, and guts alone. When she received the inbounds pass at the FT line with :04 to go, with CC down one, the video's picture frame kinda cut off the action, but it looked to me like Hynes was basically tackled by a Williams player - the Ephs were extraordinarily fortunate to have somehow emerged from that final sequence with a no call. And I doubt that they would have, were the game not being played at Chandler. You surely want the players to decide an important game, but the level of contact there appeared to be just too significant to ignore. Mairead is solidly built, and it was no flop. I believe Hynes was still down during the post-game handshake line.

There are some wonderful Eph fans who post here, who I much admire, but I caution for minimal expectations from here. I'm thinking "two and out" is most likely what's ahead. They'll again make the NCAA field, as strong numbers used by the selection committee obscure the very same eye test Williams miserably failed (to me) last year. Same group. Same issues. They'll again get shipped out to NY/PA somewhere. If they happen to draw a weak league's AQ, they might even win a game. I place 0% blame for this plight on the players, who are nothing but total effort and total class at all times. I only wish they were being better positioned to be rewarded in postseason, for their consistent dedication and hard work.
#4
Region 1 women's basketball / Re: NESCAC Hoops
February 19, 2015, 03:09:12 AM
nescacbbrules, I thoroughly enjoyed reading your choices, and hearing of your reasoning. A pure and refreshing take.

Mine was who I think will actually appear, and I didn't use much, if any, personal evaluation. (Much as I would've liked to - more fun that way!) What makes doing the NESCAC especially challenging is that they only have 10 total spots. No league in the country has as few - some leagues honor more than 5 players per team, and include a 3rd team or honorable mention, further hamstringing me, selection-wise.

All I will say is that I have inside knowledge as to how these things usually go down, with the school's SID and/or assigned WBB person helping provide data/thoughts to the coaches:

1) Look at last year's 1st team/2nd team lists, and see who returned this year. And unless they missed major time due to injury, or had a precipitous stat/performance dropoff, they're virtually a guarantee to re-appear. Seven players fall in this category:

2013-14 1st Team:
-Sara Binkhorst, SR (15.2 ppg) (my prediction: repeat 1st Team)

-Ellen Cook, SR (14.6 ppg) (my prediction: repeat 1st Team)

-Kelsey Morehead, SR (gets left off, 100% due to her pre-season injury)

2013-14 2nd Team:
-Shannon Brady, JR (13.8 ppg) (my prediction: 2nd team. I cede your point. I, too, admire her all-around game. But she still has next year; Binkhorst doesn't.)

-Ali Doswell, SO (12.3 ppg) (my prediction: 2nd team. Personally, I don't believe any LJs should appear this year. That said, I just don't think she'll be left off-she is their leading scorer again. Besides, a team can't be 22-2, and then have no one selected. It's not PC.)

-Hannah Foley, SR (she was my #1 hardest choice to leave off-especially being a SR this yr. But she's a scoring guard, and has only averaged 11.5 ppg. That's not a lot, really. I believe the usual, repeat selection/upperclassman sentiment strongly favors Foley and Kanner, but you and I both know that North has clearly been Tufts best and most consistent player all year, despite being just a SO. But where does the sentiment end, and the logic begin? The actual choice will be fun to watch. You know Coach Berube would rather see her SRs, Kanner and Foley, honored before North. Between you and me, Michela, having two years left, could be left out altogether....)

-Hayley Kanner, SR (13.1 ppg) (my prediction: 1st team. Personally, I think she deserves 2nd team again. North has just played better. Further, Hayley has really struggled with her post offense the last couple of weeks. I'm guessing that won't matter in the end, however.)


2) Pull up the stat category of league PPG leaders (which I know is going to make your cringe, nescacbbrules; please don't shoot the messenger - just telling you the truth.....)

-Samantha Graber (JR) (17.4 ppg) (my prediction: 1st Team. Sam has carried this team on her back all year, and into the playoffs, almost single-handedly.)

-Mairead Hynes (FR) (16.9 ppg) (my prediction: 1st Team. Even her own coaches were shocked at how good she was, from Day 1. Still, she'd be incredibly easy to move down to 2nd team, as a FY, given the fact she's also gonna be FR Of The Year.)

-Mackenzie Griffin (JR) (16.2 ppg) (my prediction: 2nd team. I think she's easily been the best "off-the-NESCAC radar" player this year.  The Bantams lost so much to graduation last May, it was always gonna be a rebuilding year. Without her, though? Scary bad.)

-Carylanne Wolfington (JR) (14.9 ppg) (my prediction: 2nd team. Colby's got enough solid stat line players for one to appear here, and are on the rise as a team. She outscored fellow JR Mia Diplock by 3ppg. Caitlyn Nolan is just a SO, and SR Brooke Chandor only scores 9.3ppg; not enough to even get her in the discussion.)

-Michela North (SO) (13.9 ppg) (my prediction: 2nd team. Already discussed her situation above.)


3) In the case where two players from the same team have similar general stat lines, give the all-conference "tiebreaker" nod to the upperclassmen. In the case where two players from different teams have very similar stat lines, give the all-conference nod to the player from the team who had the better overall W-L record.

4) Call your fellow coaches, and ask if there is a specific player of theirs that they would like to see on the all-conference team, and vice versa. It's not always done, but it is quite often. Basic coaching community common courtesy. I've found that a good many coaches have strong opinions as to which of their own players they would like to see be given the honor, and some will lobby the others, to make it happen. Usually, as long as that specific player's numbers are in the general ballpark of the other players chosen, fellow coaches will almost always vote as they are asked to. Because, down the road, you may feel the exact same way about one of your kids, and will need their help to get them the honor. Basically, this exercise is like everything else in this world - there's some back room jostling. 

nescacbbrules, you and I are surely president and VP of the Lauren Dillon fan club. Her accomplishments filling in for Morehead notwithstanding, it is typically not the type of season that has ever really resulted in an all-conference selection. Especially as a FY, and also given the fact that Morehead may very well be back in the Jumbo lineup this Saturday, for the #8 at #1 quarterfinal vs Hamilton. Lauren's surely placed herself on the radar for the next three years, however. Especially if she can eventually reach Kelsey's level, as a more consistent scoring threat. As for Allie Coppola (SO) from Bates, I also feel that an all-league appearance for her is just a bit premature. She really is undersized for a post, but she's awfully crafty, and very tenacious out there. She easily has the best all-around skillset on the team. Losing Molly Brown was tough, but it gave some youngsters valuable PT. If Nason can work on shooting a better % from deep next year, and Connors and Davenport make the improvements I expect them to make on the defensive end next year, I expect to see the same W-L leap from Allie and the Bobcats that I saw from Colby this year. I really think we'll see Coach Murphy and Bates make the playoffs next season.     

And you're right - I make it a point to try and check out each NESCAC team as often as I possibly can online. Crossing my fingers that Colby and Bates will join the other NESCAC schools, and begin to provide video for all home games. The two schools are now way behind the country on this. Them not streaming video of their WBB games prevented me from seeing/evaluating either one nearly as much as I would've liked. To answer your earlier question, I am a *huge* proponent of the "eye test." I use it and trust it more than anything. Numerous companies offer this service in ME, at affordable rates. Audio commentary is optional. Ambient sound is fine. Us fans (not the mention the parents of the players) will be ecstatic! Safe travels, and enjoy the action this weekend. Being able to watch in person is always more fun!
#5
Region 1 women's basketball / Re: NESCAC Hoops
February 18, 2015, 10:53:21 AM
Here are my highly unofficial predictions for 2014-15 All-NESCAC WBB:

1st Team
Sara Binkhorst, Bowdoin (SR)
Samantha Graber, Hamilton (JR)
Ellen Cook, Williams (SR)
Hayley Kanner, Tufts (SR)
Mairead Hynes, Conn College (FR)

2nd Team
Ali Doswell, Amherst (SO)
Shannon Brady, Bowdoin (JR)
Michela North, Tufts (SO)
Carylanne Wolfington, Colby (JR)
Mackenzine Griffin, Trinity (JR)

Player Of The Year: Sara Binkhorst, Bowdoin

Rookie Of The Year: Mairead Hynes, Conn College

Coach Of The Year: Carla Berube, Tufts

Defensive Player Of The Year: (far too subjective for me to even attempt)    :)
#6
Region 10 women's basketball / Re: Northwest Conference
February 18, 2015, 10:17:00 AM
Since I'm relatively sure no one's seen more NWC WBB games than me, here are my thoughts for the 2014-15 All-NWC teams:

1st Team:
Heather Johns, Whitman (SR)
KC McConnell, Whitworth (JR)
Amanda Forshay, Puget Sound (SR)
Justine Benner, George Fox (JR)
Lauren Codling, George Fox (SR)
Jami Morris, George Fox (SR)

(all 3 Bruins deserve first team, although I suspect politics will wrongly include just two.)

2nd Team:
Emily Sheldon, Puget Sound (JR)
Katy Ainslie, Puget Sound (SR)
Olivia Cook, Pacific (OR) (SR)
JoJo DeLong, Willamette (SR)
Katara Belton-Sharp, Whitworth (SR)

Honorable Mention:
Ayisat Afolabi, Lewis & Clark (SO)
Jessica Kramer, Whitworth (SR)
Lexie Zappone, Whitworth (SR)
Sarah Curl (SO) or Nani Ostrom (SR), Pacific (OR) *
Amantha Hood, Linfield (FR)
Megan Abdo (JR) or Jori Hall (JR), Pacific Lutheran *

* (Both Curl and Ostrom should appear, and no PLU player should appear, but I suspect the league's desire to include a player from Pacific Lutheran will result in either Abdo or Hall appearing.)

Player Of The Year: Heather Johns, Whitman

Coach Of The Year: Michael Meek, George Fox
#7
Region 1 women's basketball / Re: NESCAC Hoops
February 16, 2015, 01:40:07 AM
Thanks for the note, Ronk. That game in PR wasn't streamed, so it was one of the few Tufts games I couldn't watch. I have, however, seen the Lady Royals a couple of times. I remember your #55/#54 combo well. 6'1" SR Meredith Mesaris is impressive. 20+ ppg, 86% FT, and is more mobile and versatile than I expected, at first glance. She's even hit 22 3's on the year, with 3 of them coming in that win over Tufts. I also *really* like your younger, more slender big, 6'0" SO Sarah Payonk. Nearly averaging a double-double, and shooting 84% at the line. Quality production from a young player. I'm sure the other Landmark teams are thrilled to have to deal with Payonk for two more years! It's unusual for a team to have their 4/5 players be the clear go to's, but different is often better, and Scranton's having another great year - and with an interim HC, to boot! Quite impressive. Good luck in the NCAAs - maybe even a rematch, perhaps?   
#8
Region 1 women's basketball / Re: NESCAC Hoops
February 15, 2015, 08:48:06 PM
nescacbbrules, I very much enjoyed your thoughtful post. Thanks for reading, and taking the time to reply.

You are free to opine that my focus is mostly on offense, despite the fact that it truly never has been. What I have observed is that, at the DIII level, quality defensive players on top teams exist in surprisingly large numbers. Moreso than consistent point producers at DIII, for whatever reason.

I fully understand that Roberson played a lot last year as well, while Lee did not. In previous years, I thought Coach Berube gave her veterans a serious edge in PT over her newcomers. I understand why she would do that. Some conventional wisdom deems that to be a prudent approach. Experience/deeper understanding of her system/loyalty/trust/more confidence. That said, I believe many DIII coaches put too much importance on those things. I actually believe Josie Lee was a "casualty", if you will, of that thinking last season. She was a noteworthy talent in HS. IMO, the only reason Lee sat last year was because Coach giving minutes to FR, even over the SO Roberson, has historically been something Carla just hasn't done. You could even see that with a major talent like North last year. Carla far preferred the comfort level of say, SR Ali Rocchi, usually citing inherent defensive deficiencies present in all FYs. Yes, those do exist. I feel those concerns are overblown, however. Especially for a young big with a natural gift for rebounding.

Berube and I only ever disagreed on how to best address the issue. Carla wanted her FYs to learn by watching. I wanted her best FYs to learn on the job. By doing, by playing, by making mistakes in-game, during pre-season. These are smart kids. They learn these lessons fairly quickly. My experience has been that, after about 10 games or so, they usually cease to become a liability on D, and are basically good to go. And if they happen to "relapse", you can always sit them/have a teaching moment then.

That was my issue during last season. With North especially. This year, however, I have been singing Coach Berube's praises all season. Why? She's smartly and clearly de-emphasized her "seniority rules" approach. Baptista has been a major beneficiary of this. With each game, she's improving further, to cut down on her excessive fouling. By playing. The kid has quick hands, good court vision, and commits to playing good D. That's most of the battle right there. And she's a skilled and confident shooter. Which is much rarer, and arguably a more valuable trait, than defensive stalwarts are in the NESCAC. Simple supply and demand. All credit for Baptista's quick start goes to Carla/Melissa. Giving Dillon early PT before Kelsey's injury, over Wu, paid off big when Morehead went down. The job Dillon's done has been almost superhuman. So much so, no matter who the PG is come the NCAAs, the Jumbos are a legit contender. An incredible feat. All credit for it goes to Carla/Lauren.

You seem to think Roberson is a better defender than Lee is. I don't. At all. I know Emma has a *rep* as a lock-down defender, but I can't share that opinion, much as I truly want to. I give Lee the edge, due to better lateral movement, and better dead-stop to full-speed run transition. Lee runs like a puma. Smooth. Quick. As I detailed earlier this season, Emma has a choppy, head-bobs-up-and-down running style, and is fast but not especially quick. Emma has been vulnerable to the dribble drive. I've seen several clear "blow-by's" by her man this season. But I love Emma, because she's the hardest working, most intense competitor I've ever seen play out there. Still, in total, Lee's better overall athleticism, unusually good passing skills, and better overall shooting % of the two is why I still think it's in Carla's/Tufts best interests to make Josie the late game choice. I'm simply playing the percentages here. Of the two, I feel Lee is much more likely to make a great pass, sink a key hoop, or not make a mistake late, when each possession matters a ton. Any one of the above. Not just offense. We can agree to disagree on this. There are no guarantees. You are a Tufts fan, just like me. So I automatically like and respect you very much!   :)

Hey, I'm not making any claims of "foul", or trying to take *any* credit away from either Tufts or Bowdoin, for their 14-15 home wins over the LJs. I'm a Jumbos fan - I was absolutely thrilled to beat Amherst again! But I sure did consider getting them at Cousens two straight years, due to the scheduling fluke, to be a bit serendipitous. I just can't help but recall a huge # of comments made two years ago, lamenting the fact that the biggest NESCAC games always seemed to be played at LeFrak. Is it even debatable that, among the top NESCAC teams, the home court advantage is significant to who ends up winning? I mean, the Lord Jeffs have won 109 straight home games. For me to suggest earlier that there was a good chance for different outcomes, had those games been played at Amherst, doesn't exactly make me psychotic, does it? I just think it's only fair that I see/post about things not just from a Tufts point of view. But other teams, as well. amh63 and I manage to get along well, despite different rooting interests. And if what happened to Amherst WBB, schedule-wise, happened to Bowdoin WBB instead, I 100% promise you I would've made the exact same point (along with 10 loyal Polar Bear fans, I suspect!)

nescacbbrules, I can 100% see why you feel I am a "Gromacki apologist." Big picture, I do have a ton of respect what the man has accomplished. How can you not? But it might surprise you to know that, from the bottom of my heart, that I have *far* more issues with how he's "run his ship" this year than I do Carla. I give Carla a 98, and GP an 81. Berube's job has been much easier, though. Her top 7/8 players (counting Morehead) are clear cut. The only reason I bring up Roberson vs Lee is that everything else, rotation-wise, is 100% set for Tufts. All that's left is what happens if/when with Kelsey returns, and any "fine tuning." 

Amherst is a far more complex issue, for a number of reasons. Re-incorporating Megan Robertson into a prominent role since her recent return from a torn ACL has proven to be far from seamless. Why? I don't know. Guesses? When Megan went down last year, the 4 starting FYs (Renner, the two Doswells and Peterson) seemed to develop a comfort zone, with both each other and that weave offense, Giddins, Pritchard, Zwecker and Holness, although all just SOs and a JR, managed to adjust their games around the freshmen. Some said the scheme was too 3-pointer oriented, and they may have had a point. Still, the final W-L result for 13-14 Amherst was an absolute credit to all involved with the LJs.

So it's a new year for Amherst. No one graduated. A bunch more quality FYs are brought in. Robertson is due to return around New Years'. But what was GP gonna do with all of these players? Hackley, Nagle and Schumacher all had plenty of scholarship-level interest. And the girl from Switzerland (Lily Johnson) can also really play. First off, Holness and Virginia Hassell both decide to concentrate on their studies, which at least got the LJ roster down to 15. I made comments in December about the staggering amount of quality depth that Amherst has. I still stand by that characterization today. But some went a step further, and thought I was anointing the LJs as "the 14-15 chosen one". I absolutely was not doing that, at the time. My issue was that I just couldn't figure out how Gromacki was gonna fit 200 minutes of total PT per game into all of this assembled talent. I thought he'd actually over-recruited. But if anybody could somehow make it work, I figured it would be him. Everything about Amherst is class, so there's no back-biting or grumbling. But when a minimum of 12 kids deserve 20mpg each, what can you do? And when does healthy competition turn into "I better produce when I'm in there!" self-pressure?

Then comes at Tufts/at Bowdoin. The Jumbos are clearly quicker and bigger than Amherst. 5'10" Giddins struggled mightily down low. GP obviously wants a different result in March. Does he just write those two losses off to Megan being rusty, and an overall lack of time playing together recently? At least his "toolbox" is full. If he wants to unveil his own "twin towers", he could try matching up Robertson and Nagle with Kanner and North. I don't think Carla's seen a 14-15 opponent match her size. If Nagle's not 100% ready, she can at least give up some fouls, because GP has two other 6'2" girls on the bench. North is only OK at the FT line. If GP wants to go quicker, Renner, Pritchard, Hackley and either Doswell match up better with Foley, et al. Shannon Brady went off against the LJs in Brunswick, while Robertson was a non-factor that day. GP's quandry: was that day a fluke or not?

I just don't think Gromacki's a guy that's gonna unveil something totally unexpected, lineup-wise, in postseason, even if he has the ability/depth to do so. They don't really press. They've stopped running last year's high-post weave in recent games, even though I think he still likes it, deep down. They still shoot tons of 3's, while now incorporating Robertson's classic low post game. My gut is that he's gonna sink or swim with Megan, the 4 SOs, Giddins, Pritchard and Hackley. I do know the players all look up to Robertson - and I don't mean just literally. And they'll do their very best to have her finish up with a bang!

Good luck to all next weekend, my NESCAC buddies!
#9
Region 10 women's basketball / Re: Northwest Conference
February 15, 2015, 02:29:39 AM
BruinFan, congrats on the road sweep of the Whits. Hard earned, and extremely well deserved.

BruinFan, you get to post whatever you want. Any time you do, I enjoy reading it. I get confused rather easily, that's all. When I do, just clarify things for me. It is not a criticism of you at all. It's just that, historically, whenever a person shines the light on that "line of demarkation" about a league's teams, their intention is to draw others' attention to it, for some reason. For added insight. So why would you mention it twice, if you thought that the non-Top 4 NWC teams were also solid game-in, game-out competition? I was confused as to your point. 100% my bad. I just didn't see that to be anything but a strange, statistical anomaly. Unless that, in and of itself, was your point all along......

With 8:00 to go tonight, and the game even, Whitman's Maeda was totally gassed. Again. And had to ask out. Again. Ferenz was forced to play Katie Gray. Again. (As my alarm bells go off....) During those 3 2nd-half minutes, I believe it was a 6-0 GFU run. Ferenz had to quickly yank Katie. During Gray's entry in the first half, IIRC, a 10-2 Bruin run occurred during Katie's 5 minutes. GFU was absolutely chewing her up and spitting her out. Maeda isn't in anywhere near the kind of shape that the GFU players are. It's obvious. And shame on Hailey Ann for that, because the Missionaries need her to be in there as many minutes as possible, as she and Johns are the only upperclassmen playing much these days. But Maeda had to play 31 mins Fri vs Pacific. She averages just 25. Johns was also on major fumes late Sat., after 40 mins Friday. You can always tell with her - less elevation on her jump, while shooting. BruinFan, you had to have noticed Whitman fatigue in the last 6-7 minutes of both halves. Legs gone. One reason: the tough Pacific game Friday. (Further credit must go to the Bruins as well - you guys have been feasting on tired-legged teams late all year, and that's to your club's continuing credit. My compliments to team and staff.)

I can't think of anything sadder than to be a player in a DIII WBB conference, and see that no one is posting anything here. Posting lets both the participants and coaches know that people follow, watch, enjoy and care about their team. All four of those are good things, right? So yeah, I'll get in there. I'll compliment coaches. I'll second-guess coaches. I do the same with players, other posters, and other conferences. I've been right, and I've been wrong. I will continue to be both of those things. I'm not perfect. But I've always been a very respectful, tolerant person. 

I enjoyed Whitman's runs the past two years very much. I'll always have a special fondness in my heart for those players, and the Missionary coaches. But I can still be, and have been, quite critical of the job Michelle Ferenz has done this year. It's the darndest thing. With the specific injuries that occurred, she's basically been *forced* to finally now play the exact five players I've wanted to see in there all year. Otherwise, we'd all still be watching the underachieving veteran duo of McDonald and Buse play major, non-productive minutes - and see them lose winnable games. While Brewer, who's exponentially better than both (and has been even better than her sister (Tiffani Traver) was last season lately, and that's saying something!) kept riding the pine. I don't mean to be sarcastic, but isn't it Ferenz' job is to notice which players are better than which, and to play the best ones the most? I now view this non-NCAA year for Whitman as a totally avoidable outcome. No, they're not gonna win the NWC tournament, and grab the automatic bid. No how, no way. Too difficult this year. Losing those opening two games in Ohio remains inexplicable, and was 100% Ferenz' fault; both opponents were *not* highly skilled teams, and it severely damaged her at-large chances from the get-go. Had she won even one of those two, they'd be ranked regionally right now. Turns out Ferenz had plenty enough talent at her disposal, all along, to again be going to the NCAAs. Just like the NWC voters thought they did, pre-season. She just refused to play the ones who could get her there. You could see that tonight. The current five starters just "click". They fit together perfectly, and compliment each other. Rommel and Poe already play like juniors. Early on Sat., neither Codling nor Benner (both top defenders) could stop Rommel down low! Emily and Casey were both productive, play great D without fouling, and neither one ever gets tired. And McGarity has quickly fit nicely into the primary rotation, after her late start. Darn it. The NWC should've had *four* teams make the NCAA tournament this year, IMO. Heather Johns deserved this last run.

But George Fox deserves to be the star of this post. Can I just say again how much I love watching Dacia Heckendorf play? I almost think you have to see the game as a coach does, to fully appreciate how extremely well that young lady plays. She was both stupendous, and on the floor for the Bruins during all the most important points of this weekend's games. And I noticed Coach Meek had Kylie Dummer guarding Heather Johns. Now I know why she starts - that girl can really D up. Johns is just about as tough a one-on-one matchup as a DIII player can draw. I noticed that Johns' best moments on O was when Dummer was subbed out of the game.

It also struck me that the Bruins are really only two-deep at the 3-pt shooter spot. Morris and Naluai. (that's enough to win, though.) Sammy's stroke from deep had a quiet weekend, but she kicked it in during the last 10 mins at Whitman. And you know why George Fox is a great team? After Morris fouled out at Whitworth, and GFU sees the shot clock winding down, late in regulation, who shows the guts of a burglar, steps up, takes and drains a very clutch trey? Nicole Blizzard. I also saw Kimberly Frost get some late, important minutes for the Bruins at PG after Morris fouled out. She sure is quick. But what I like about her most is that she doesn't suffer from the #1 problem that quick kids always need to deal with: how to not play *too* quickly sometimes. Kimberly always seems to play at the proper speed for the moment, especially for a young player. That is rare, and to her credit. Also happy to see Hobert back in there. I'm afraid she missed too much time to get many big 14-15 minutes, going forward. But I encourage Kennedy to stay ready, short term, and work on your game. You've already got plenty of it, and two more seasons of fun are still ahead of you!
#10
Region 1 women's basketball / Re: NESCAC Hoops
February 14, 2015, 11:33:49 PM
First off, I'd like to add my best wishes to Bowdoin's Megan Phelps, her family and to her Bowdoin family. They had a "32" written in cardboard, and placed it at the end of their bench today at Cousens. Wonderful show of respect by her team.

Secondly, congrats to Coach Murphy and his Bates team for getting their second consecutive Senior Day home win over Colby. You never want to see anyone go "0-fer" in conference. And since Colby was already locked into the #6 seed for the upcoming NESCAC playoffs, win or lose, I wouldn't think Coach Veilleux was overly distraught over today's result. Coach Murphy's teams have struggled recently, but he has a long history of success up there, is a class act, and I will continue to root for Bates to come back strong in WBB.

The Tufts 66, Bowdoin 55 final score on Senior Day today appears much closer than the actual game was. It was 54-30 Tufts after a Kanner jumper with 13:17 to go, and from there, it was mostly Coach Berube taking the air out of the ball (dare I even use that analogy around teams from suburban Boston these days?)   :)   resulting in a 25-12 game-ending Polar Bear "run", of sorts.

Baptista is a gifted offensive talent, and one who rarely takes a bad shot (unusual for a FY.) She's also had some great moments on D, and appears to be making strides towards fouling less during the past 2-3 games - her #1 bug-a-boo during NESCAC play. Melissa is going to be a starter and major contributor for the Jumbos next year, and will soon be a star in this league. Last weekend, Coach Berube reverted back to an early season, bad habit of hers. She had Roberson on the floor, and Lee on the bench during the last 4:00 of a close game. Excepting for foul trouble/injury, that can't ever happen again. It's a little thing that really matters, as it could really cost her and her team. Trust me. This is Tufts' year, and they obviously want to make their run last as long as possible next month. Lee has this amazing knack for doing something positive when it is needed most: a clutch pass, rebound or shot. It is a gift, and it is 99% basketball instinct. The more pressure, the better she plays. Roberson, for all her relentless effort, just does not possess this trait/knack. In fact, Lee single-handedly saved the Jumbos' perfect NESCAC season at Hamilton last weekend. Coming out of a TO, and down 3 with :16 seconds left in regulation, Lee calmly drained a mega-clutch 3-ball to tie it up, to get the game into OT, where Tufts ended up winning by 7. I've seen players like Josie Lee before. They are rare and valuable. And that's exactly what players like that do. Help you win you important, close games.

Sara Binkhorst (7-12 FG; 5-5 from 3; 4-4 FT for 23 pts; 7 assists) did everything she could for Bowdoin. Shannon Brady added 12, but that was basically it. I honestly enjoy how pumped up and excited the Bowdoin WBB fans get when their team is playing well. I like seeing people happy. Do they get a little carried away at times? Sure. But I don't know a loyal fan anywhere who doesn't do the same. And there's no reason for them to still not be very optimistic, despite today's loss. The fun part is really only getting started.

To me, only *one* 14-15 NESCAC team drew the "very shortest straw", and had to play their lone NESCAC game at both Tufts and Bowdoin on the road both of the last two seasons (due to the league ending the M/WBB DH's): Amherst. And those happened to be the LJ's only two losses on the season. Do I think Amherst loses to Bowdoin at LeFrak this season? No. Or even to Tufts at LeFrak? Who knows? Although they clearly have flaws as a team, I think it's at least a 50/50 possibility that were it not for this wacky schedule quirk, Amherst may well be undefeated right now. Still, if I'm Gromacki, I'm happy it played out this way, because he got to see his team "exposed" against other top teams, in a way he might not have if those were home games. The great part now? None of that matters anymore. It's basically a reset. Because, barring a repeat of the #8 upset of #1 that we saw 2 years ago, NESCAC fans will likely get to watch Bowdoin and Amherst play at a neutral site (Tufts). May the better team that day win!

Kelsey Morehead update: Although she was in uniform this weekend, she did not play. Luckily, SR Ali Berman, who played her 1st 3 years at Tufts, was a halftime guest/2nd-half color analyst today. She happened to mention that Kelsey was "one more week away" from getting back out the floor. Since no info was ever released on what exactly her December injury is/was, I found that information valuable. And although FY Lauren Dillon has done an absolutely stellar job in her stead, Morehead's a SR, a 4-year starter, and brings more offensive punch to the Jumbos.

Sunday's Middlebury at Amherst NESCAC finale has no impact on the 4 playoff matchups, since Middlebury wins the tiebreak by beating Hamilton head-to-head, and should the Panthers pull the upset Sunday, they lost to Colby head-to-head. So here's next Saturday's NESCAC quarterfinals:

#8 Hamilton at #1 Tufts
#7 Middlebury at #2 Bowdoin
#6 Colby at #3 Amherst
#5 Conn College at #4 Williams

(Wesleyan, Trinity and Bates did not qualify.)

#11
Region 10 women's basketball / Re: Northwest Conference
February 14, 2015, 06:55:24 PM
My most sincere congrats on your OT win in Spokane, BruinFan. The better team won.

However, I take major issue with one point that you've made more than once this season. As to the "math" of it, you're 100% correct. As of this moment, none of the bottom five teams has beaten any of the top four. But I see that point as an absolute and complete disservice to those other five NWC teams.. And the way I see it, George Fox has been the #1 beneficiary of this league's quality depth - *especially*, as you note, by your NWC travel partner, Pacific (OR).

The night before Whitworth played you Sat afternoon in Newberg, they had to play Pacific in Forest Grove. Yeah, the Bucs won, but it was like Ali-Frazier III. I saw that game. The Pirates had to give absolutely everything they had to eke out that win. And then attempt to topple your Bruins, on the road, just 21 hours later. They were totally gassed, and the Pirate results that day absolutely reflected that.

Same thing for tonight. Whitman *barely* escaped the Boxers in Walla Walla last night. Michelle Ferenz had to play Heather Johns the full 40 minutes, which she tries to avoid at all costs. But Ferenz had no choice but to leave her out there.  Every single time the M's got another 5-6 point lead late - Bam! Another Boxer 3. Time and time again. Again, I expect this to benefit the Bruins in a major way tonight, against a short-handed Whitman team with four kids now in street clothes. And I say all this while meaning to take nothing away from your George Fox team. They are outstanding, the class of the NWC, and I'll be stunned to not see them in the FF.

I only hope you'll consider my point here. As you know, I also closely observe the NESCAC play. And while they're a great league, too, it's just a totally different animal than the NWC, even though it's not clear by looking at the records. The top teams in the NESCAC are regularly able to rest up/limit their starters minutes, just before a upper tier league foe the next day. Being allowed that "luxury" makes an incredible difference in a team's fatigue level, especially in the mostly Fri-Sat leagues, like the NWC and the NESCAC.
#12
Region 10 women's basketball / Re: Northwest Conference
February 08, 2015, 02:13:23 AM
George Fox easily dispatched of both Willamette (at home) and at the only '14-15 NWC team that really can't hang with all the others, Pacific Lutheran. The Bruins travel to "Whit Country" next weekend. Whitworth Friday, and Whitman Saturday. Fox is firing on all cylinders these days, and both of these games were basically over before halftime.

Puget Sound rebounded well after the home loss to GFU. They had to work some (you also do in the NWC), but won 71-57 at Pacific (OR) and 65-49 at Willamette. JR Emily Sheldon put 31 on the Boxers. I love her game. She's had numerous outstanding efforts this year. Her Friday explosion now has her actually leading the team, at 13.7ppg (Forshay 13.2/Ainslie 12.7).   

If UPS is fortunate enough to be shipped out for the NCAAs, there's many a 4-team pod where the Loggers will advance. Although I honestly think it would be the *far* more fair/equitable thing to do to ship out the #2 NWC team (looks now like Whitworth), as a reward for finishing 2nd, if you will, and leave Puget Sound, as the #3 NWC team, behind in Newberg, to possibly have to deal with George Fox. That hasn't been what the NCAA has historically done, however. When they do ship an NWC team out, it's usually been the #3. (In that case, should an NWC coach try to finish 3rd, to escape the Bruins pod? I think I would consider it, were I a coach. Which is why I made the suggestion. Because I always want teams to do their best, and try 100% to win every game. I hate when any team considers "tanking", in any sport, to improve their place in the draft, for example.)

Whitman wins at Linfield Fri, 66-54, and Whitworth wins there Sat, 68-61. The Wildcats coach (Robin Potera-Haskins) is a spitfire (albeit a tad crazy), they've got some talent, and they've got some loyal, vocal fans who always make it tough for opponents in McMinnville. Both Whits had to work fairly hard for their road wins this weekend, who both had the injury bug bite. Lexie Zappone was in street clothes and limping noticeably in the end-of-game Linfield line Sat. This is a MAJOR loss for the Bucs. Behind KC McConnell, she's the team's best player. She's their best defender (on a team full of them), and she is the league's best PG not named Heather Johns. Superb handle, superb passer, clutch, knows when her team needs her to score, deadly at the FT line late, and she understands what Helen Higgs wants to a T. If Lexie's not back in the lineup by Friday, you can wave bye-bye to any chance Whitworth has to beat the Bruins in Spokane, IMO. The Pirates have other solid guards, but none are even half as good, all-around, as Zappone is.   

The Whitman bench had SO Alysse Ketner in street clothes Fri. (now I know why she only played the first 4 mins vs Whitworth Tuesday-and in-game injury I did not see.) The 6'2" FR Kendra Winchester tore an ACL in practice recently, and McDonald and Buse are still out as well. Whitman stayed 100% healthy during their big NCAA run last year, but the injury gods have a way of balancing out the ledger, over time.

I don't spend much time here posting on NWC teams #5 thru 9, but Pacific (OR) has consistently played teams very tight during NWC play. They get out to consistently quick starts, and have been difficult to try to reel back in. Currently 5-7 in the league, they've lost 5 real close ones: by 2 (OT), 3, 3, 4 and just 7 at UPS. After all this heartbreak, they honestly deserved a nice road win, and finally got it Sat - a 76-53 win at Lewis & Clark, who at 4-8 in conference has also proven to be a more difficult challenge then I'd projected in pre-season. In fact, this was the first Pio league game all year where they didn't manage to honestly hang within 7-15 point range, all the way to the end. I do like what I've seen so far in first-year L&C coach Asha Jordan.

#13
Region 10 women's basketball / Re: Northwest Conference
February 07, 2015, 07:06:25 PM
I do 100% agree with you on that point, Pat. Thanks for making it. My last post was unclear. I knew myself that Whitman WBB had also won 3 NCAA games/gotten to the Elite 8 two seasons ago. That absolutely happened too late to positively impact '13-14 recruiting, but it did give Ferenz & Co. great recruiting momentum *all* during last season's dream run. My characterization of the high-level '14-15 Whitman FR was intended to reflect the initial impact that the past *two* Whitman successful NCAA teams has had, as to the higher quality of their recruits. Hey, I'm not saying that the best '14-15 Whitman FR are Michigan's "Fab 5" reincarnated. Far from it. All I am saying is that they are clearly an improvement over previous classes. Even Anderegg/White/Traver, for all their achievements as upperclassman, all did little as FR and SO's. It wasn't until Johns came on board, that it truly started to all come together.
#14
Region 10 women's basketball / Re: Northwest Conference
February 04, 2015, 08:06:36 PM
If you check back to my Nov/Dec 2014 NWC posts, I went into much detail about Whitman. I was quite frustrated. I felt that as long as you still have Heather Johns, the NCAAs were still possible. NWC coaches agreed. In a close vote, they thought the Missionaries' would repeat as league champs. My issue was 100% with who Coach Ferenz was playing. Heck, she's the HC, and these are her decisions to make. I respect that. All I can say is that I used to both coach and recruit at the college level. One of my bosses (HC) complimented me a while back. I'll paraphrase. "The reason I always listen carefully to what you say is that, when I've looked back, time has proven to me that you've almost always been right about things. Not 100%. No one is. But 90%+. That's very high. So I trust you. You've helped me to bring in the right kids, convinced me to stay away from kids that ended up not working out elsewhere. You have a knack for knowing who should play a lot, who shouldn't, and what might work on O or D when we're struggling, when I ask you for something. And you never want or need any credit for doing it. So thanks for helping me build my program." That's all I ever needed. It was a very kind of him to privately acknowledge me like that. It was my pleasure to help him out. That person is still at it, leaving for a higher-profile DI WBB job, and is now 15 hours away. We'll always be friends. But one thing that I do know that I still have "the knack". I never mean to hurt anyone. I just see things that I know will work. And I do have confidence. I have been right a lot. My only hope is that Coach Ferenz might read my take on her team, and consider it. I truly only have her and her team's best interests in mind.

The two players who Ferenz insisted on playing huge minutes to all season so far (to her/her team's detriment, I thought) were both DNP Tuesday night: (I wish injury on no one, but I do admit that a part of me said "Thank God" when I knew they'd both be out.) JR Hailey McDonald (ankle injury for the past 2/3 wks-DEFINITELY addition by subtraction, IMO) and SR F/co-captain Hailie Buse (the team's most popular player, but a career role player. My issues with her are 100% basketball-based; a "shooter" with a horrific career 3-pt pct, and she has absolutely NO jumping ability. Had started every game, but was DNP Tuesday. (no idea why, but again, it was *major* Whitman addition by subtraction.) SO G Chelsi Brewer has played WAY WAY too few minutes all year. Finally got just her 2nd career start Tuesday, playing a career-high 34 minutes. Easily the team's best 3-pt shooter, she scored 8 points, played stellar D, and proved to be the perfect backcourt mate with Johns. I would've had this tandem starting together since Game 1-absolute no brainer. (But Ferenz wouldn't bench her starter McDonald, who I would've relegated to garbage time on my team.) To me, the biggest disappointment has been SO Alysse Ketner. I expected more myself, but it just hasn't happened, also since Day 1 this year. Shaky D. Even her shot (her #1 strength as a FR) has largely disappeared. Shaky dribbler. (I'm sure Higgs was counting on picking Ketner's pocket several times on Tuesday. But because Alysse hardly played, it didn't happen. Ferenz' started Ketner Tues, and she played the first 4 minutes, and then she sat her for the last 36. Not a strategy I'm real familiar with (why start her then?), but it worked.) Ferenz also *finally* stopped giving SR career-8-mpg player Katie Gray 15-20 mpg a couple of wks ago. This completely senseless move came WAY too late, as several talented FR could've/should've gotten (and benefitted from) the minutes Gray was getting instead.

Getting to the DIII championship game comes with perks - an excellent Whitman recruiting class. I knew at least three would need to play big minutes immediately. FR Emily Rommel has started most of the year. And deservedly so. EXCEPT for the earlier game at Whitworth. Ferenz didn't start her, and hardly played Emily at all that game. Why? Because she's not ready yet for "The Battle Of The Whits?" Really? Says who? There was zero reason to do that. It negatively affects their confidence. Yeah, Rommel had major foul trouble Tuesday night. But she grabbed 10 boards and scored 6 points in her 17 minutes. Her interior D and work off the glass was key to Whitman's big win. Ferenz has also had a "hair trigger" on pulling Rommel (and all her FR) all season. Far more patience was needed by coach. They don't need to be saved/protected from learning out there. For a 6-footer in DIII, Rommel's game is quite advanced. Had Rommel gotten half the minutes Ferenz wasted on Gray and others early on, that's 25+ more game lessons Emily would've already learned by now. I'll bet less PF's on Tuesday would've been a possible result. FR Casey Poe's progress each game is clearly evident. She's gonna be a very good one. She played 28 key minutes last night, and did many positive things. She's a long, 5'11" with hops, plays super D for a FY, has guard skills, and possesses the offensive skill set to easily play the 3/4 spot at DIII. Again, Buse was getting *way way* too many 2014-15 minutes, that should've instead gone to Poe. If she had, she would also be much further along right now. The blame for Rommel/Poe being less "ready" in Feb. can only go to one individual. 5'10" FR Sierra McGarity was out injured the first month. But she's got a solid basketball body, and is a pure athlete who isn't afraid to mix it up. She's still not 100% up to speed, but she's almost there. Sierra is a natural 3, but Ferenz is giving her minutes as an undersized 4/5. I was thrilled that Ferenz gave her 21 key minutes vs Whitworth. She posted 5 rebounds & 5 points. I'll take that bench production in a heartbeat.

I was SO happy for Heather Johns (26 points Tuesday) last night. It was the first time all year I that truly saw the 1st-team All-American player totally energized, totally engaged, and playing at the incredibly high level I so enjoyed seeing last year. Smiling. Happy. She deserves it. And I was watching Whitman pull away from Whitworth last night, I see Johns out there with these four players: a SO (Brewer) and 3 FR (Rommel, Poe & McGarity.) Better late than never, I guess!

But there's other talent here. JR Hailey Ann Maeda's overall game (13 points last night) has really kicked in during NWC play. She's Whitman's #2 best player. And I'm not totally anti-SR. 6'0" Heather Lovelace is quite valuable as the first big off the bench. She's got a deadly 8-10 foot short jumper, and the wily veteran can give you extended quality minutes, if needed. Ferenz now needs to go with a primary rotation of 7. Start Johns (1), Maeda (4), Brewer (2), Rommel (5) and Poe (3). Lovelace and McGarity are the top subs. Poe played PG for 4 yrs in HS, so she can switch over to the (1), as can Brewer, and you still have Ketner, who I wouldn't give up on, just yet. She's just shown too many flashes of greatness.

Whitworth shot the ball *so* bad at Whitman last night, my only explanation is that the chef that prepared the Bucs pre-game meal spiked in 25 5-hour energy drinks with his cooking liquid, and then topped it off by serving them all pot brownies for dessert!!   :)   Bad shooting is one thing. But when nearly half the 2-pt shots, even from close range, looked like they were being fired out of a bazooka, instead of being shot by a player, something doesn't add up. And while Whitworth was 0-15 from 3 on the game, not a one of them was remotely close - my recollection is that more than half were *total* air balls. Off by a country mile. Even if the basket was the size of a hula hoop, the Pirates still would've shot 0-15 from 3. If I live to be 100, I'll never see a team shoot worse than I saw the Bucs last night. I honestly have no rational explanation for it. They also missed 10 of their 25 FTs. Yeah, Whitman played zone vs Whitworth, but Lewis & Clark played them zone, too. The Pirates swept them. Coach Ferenz went with a ton more young players than she did up in Spokane. And while they are more skilled at the defensive end than most FY's are, it's hard to believe that they could so completely lock down the seasoned Buc veterans. I do know one thing, though. Coach Ferenz threw out some personnel combos last night that Coach Higgs was definitely not expecting to see much of in her pre-game scouting report. Basically, "out with the old, in with the new." Maybe that element of surprise was the genius of Coach Ferenz game plan, and proved to be Whitworth's kryptonite. Short-term, the 70-43 Whitman win was arguably the #1 upset of NWC conference play to date. Congratulations to Coach Ferenz and the Missionaries, who haven't exactly had the smoothest of rides as a team themselves this campaign. It'll be fun to see a possible third meeting between the Whits. But you can only play that "element of surprise" card once, so I'm sure Coach Higgs will be ready for whoever on her roster Coach Ferenz sends out there against the Pirates, if there is a next time in the NWC playoffs/NCAAs.
#15
Region 10 women's basketball / Re: Northwest Conference
February 04, 2015, 02:31:22 PM
Been busy of late, but I'd like to offer deeper, beyond-the-recap/Box Score insights of the two Top-4 NWC games that I've seen in their entirety during the past week. They were surprises/much to learn from both games, which is great. For me, the unexpected always makes the games more fun to watch. Ultimately, my #1 reason to watch is to always take in the highest level of DIII WBB that I can, no matter the teams/leagues. And for me, year in and year out, the NWC rarely ever disappoints.

I'll start with the 1/30 George Fox at Puget Sound game: 1) Since it happened 5 days ago, and 2) It won't take nearly as long as Whitman's unexpected home drubbing of Whitworth last night, where I have multiple thoughts on both teams. Turns out it was a highly unusual late-season contest, in several ways. More on that one from me ASAP.

George Fox has brought a consistent, high level of game at both ends all season long, and that was again the case Friday night in Tacoma. Where I think Coach Meek deserves the most credit in 14-15 that his top players (Benner, Morris) have completely bought in to their team's much more intense defensive mentality, which takes advantage of the Bruins league-best depth, but means less total minutes for both. Not only are they OK with it, they both clearly benefit, by being fresher late in the contest. Both players did suffer from "disappearing" on offense late in the 2nd half of multiple big games last year. And, although Benner his smartly diversified her formerly always-goes-right-hand post move game some, Meek correctly sensed the primary reason for their lack of late-game points was fatigue-based. Because it hasn't happened to either Justine or Jami this year. At all. At UPS was a perfect example of this.     

Last season's George Fox team would've absolutely lost this game. For the first 29 minutes Friday, the Loggers were clearly the better team. In every way. Fox's press was not bothering the seasoned UPS squad one iota, and both key SRs (Amanda Forshay and Katy Ainslie) were scoring, rebounding, playing great D, and leading by example. And Puget Sound's veteran bench players were hanging tough with the equally skilled GFU bench players. It was so much fun for me to watch DIII women's hoops at this high a level.

When Ainslie made a jumper with 10:43 to go, to make it 54-42 Puget Sound, George Fox was in deep trouble. It didn't look like UPS was going away, or wearing down at all. Coach Meek had to call a TO. I said two things to myself: 1) "This is when we're gonna find out what the Bruins are truly made of. On the road. Against a hungry, veteran, highly skilled fellow Top 25 team, who's playing well." 2) "This is when we're gonna find out if this seasoned Puget Sound group can take that final step, and break through at last against a NWC team that's going to the NCAAs." And, at that moment, I honestly had no clue, except it was looking great for the Loggers....

I was looking squarely at four players. Benner and Morris for George Fox, and Forshay and Ainslie for UPS, to determine the final outcome. One duo delivered big-time, while the other went very quiet. The Loggers' breakthrough win was within reach. But they blinked. During the final 35-19 Bruin run, there were 6-8 "wow-VERY impressive" sequences by the Bruins. And, to their credit, they could then sense "blood in the water", and that the pressure of the moment appeared to be finally starting to get the best of Puget Sound.

Incredibly, Morris scored 18 of her game-high 27 points after that TO, including a 3-ptr the possession right after it, to get her team rolling. Now that's clutch leadership by example, that she's already shown multiple times this year, that honestly hadn't been there a lot during her first 3 years (as Jami Roos.) All the credit goes to her, her teammates and her coach. When it was needed most, George Fox shot 11-13 from the field during that last 10:43. Against a UPS team that *really* D's up. Morris hit 3 3's, a layup, and was 7-7 at the line in crunch time. Benner added 11 during that same span. Lauren Codling and Sammy Naluai, not surprisingly, added the other 6 late Bruin points. UPS didn't shoot awful at the end (6-16). In comparison, Forshay went 2-3, for 4 pts, and Ainslie shot just 1-6, had 2 TO's, and also missed a key 1-and-1 FT during that last 10:43. Still, they both played very solid games, and I applaud Coach Payne for UPS' fine overall effort. This 14-15 George Fox team has some serious mojo going for it. I saw that same, uncommon Bruin resolve early in non-conf, at a good Wisconsin Lutheran team. They can seemingly produce something exceptional, when it's most needed. Only great teams possess this quality. FYI, they counted an Ashley Agcaoili desperation 3 at the buzzer that I thought clearly came too late, to cosmetically make the final score appear closer: 77-73 Bruins.

Both of these teams are stone-cold locks for the upcoming NCAA DIII tournament.