Quote from: USee on September 05, 2015, 10:11:47 AM
I will be very interested to see IWU today vs Franklin. They are making some strong proclamations in Bloomington about what happened last year. I am not so sure it was all injury related. There is no question they have some top level CCIW talent coming back. I am sure they are a contender.

For the consensus top 3 here are a couple things I think are the strengths and questions for each. My questions are really about when these teams play each other because I expect their only losses will be to one of the other two:

Wheaton:
Strengths: Linebacker/DE, OLine, defensive speed, QB, size and depth at WR
Questions: Speed at WR, DB experience, Kicking game (although after watching the Wabash scrimmage I think they are ok here)

Hard to believe that any observer of Wheaton football would be questioning the kicking game this year.  In their first game, Wheaton kickers were a perfect 8 for 8 on FG/PAT's, and kick-offs remained very solid again this year.

Contrast this to the Wheaton nation holding it's collective breath during FG's and PAT's over the last three years, especially last year.  Last season, Wheaton's FG/PAT kicker missed more FG's than any other kicker in all D3, and in fact only 6 kickers in all NCAA divisions combined missed more FG's then him last season.  And his FG percentage was among the lowest in all D3 at 47%.  Not to mention all the missed PAT's. 

Hard to believe Wheaton stuck with that kicker when the guys who are kicking now were on the bench ready to go and they also had another available senior kicker last year who had a strong leg handling the kick-offs.  As much as Wheaton juggles players, the way they stuck with that FG/PAT kicker last year was baffling and it ultimately played a big role in them not getting a trip to the Elite 8. I feel confident that Wheaton FG/PAT kicking will improve this year – it really has no where to go but up.

Quote from: Mugsy on May 18, 2015, 11:00:19 PM
So some of the names I was hearing are in fact true from the Wheaton recruits list.

You have another round of Roberts, Nussbaum, Miller, Frazier, Brady to represent brothers, cousins and sons of Alum.

Probably most recognizable is Noah Spielman, son of Chris Spielman of Ohio State LB fame and lesser Detroit Lion.  I believe he is transferring in from Toledo, so a D1 transfer.

Wheaton certainly loves their legacy players...at times to a fault.

Quote from: D3gridiron on December 02, 2014, 01:38:24 PM

Quote from: Toph on December 01, 2014, 12:00:11 PM
Does anyone have an explanation for why Wheaton went for it on 4th and 1, looking at about a 33 yard field goal down 2 with 5:00 and change left?  Whether it was a poor spot or not, the call makes no sense to me. Take the lead. It was little more than a chip shot.

Wheaton's 4th down conversion rate is much higher then their FG conversion rate.

Wheaton's decision to make no improvements to their kicking game during the season ultimately played a major role in costing them this game and shortening their run in the play-offs. 

Two turnovers on downs in the Red Zone during this game clearly showed that at that point in the season even the Wheaton coaching staff lacked any confidence in their FG kicker (6 potential points lost).  The missed extra point (ultimately cost them 2 points) and two missed FG attempts (3 more points lost) at the end of the game showed their lack of confidence was well founded. 

Wheaton had created a significant problem here and their decision making during this game clearly showed that they knew that.  They tried everything in this game to work around it, but they had let this issue fester way too long during the course of the season (which is quite contrary to the way Wheaton typically handles things) and it ultimately caught up to them.

Quote from: Toph on December 01, 2014, 12:00:11 PM
Does anyone have an explanation for why Wheaton went for it on 4th and 1, looking at about a 33 yard field goal down 2 with 5:00 and change left?  Whether it was a poor spot or not, the call makes no sense to me. Take the lead. It was little more than a chip shot.

Wheaton's 4th down conversion rate is much higher then their FG conversion rate.

I think the very first line of the game recap article on the JCU football site sums it up best...
"Special teams play such a big role in football games".

Quote from: thunderdog on November 22, 2014, 10:08:30 PM
Wheaton might want to consider doubling, maybe tripling, the time they spend on PAT/FG this next week. 2 more blocked PATs today. Such a "taken for granted" play that could have serious consequences if they don't get that fixed. John Carrol presents enough of a challenge as is, they don't need an extra point here and there.

The Wheaton broadcast commentators were saying the same thing during the game on Saturday.  One, two or three points could make a huge difference moving forward.

"Without data you're just another person with an opinion."
W. Edwards Deming

Quote from: thunderdog on November 08, 2014, 10:59:13 PM
Congrats to the Wheaton Thunder for securing a share of the CCIW conference championship and the AQ bid for the playoffs!  Really enjoyed hearing Coach Swider's postgame thoughts... hearing that Ed McCully's son (first name?) was on hand (both at yesterday's chapel and then for today's game) to watch his first ever Wheaton football game being played on the field named after his Dad.  That's just awesome stuff.  It's been a great season so far.

That said, here are my takeaways from today's IWU @ Wheaton:

First, a win is a win.  It's hard to be too critical when the team is 9-0 and will definitely be playing on Saturday November 22nd.  However, if Wheaton plays anywhere near like they did today, it will be 1-and-done for the Thunder in the playoffs.

Outside of a standout individual performance from #56 junior LB Logan Mcrae, there aren't many positives. 

1) You can't come up empty-handed on a 1st-and-goal from the 2 in the 1st qtr (fumbling on 4th down). 

2)You can't miss extra points!  Don't know if Sam Cote kicked it low or it was just bad blocking up front?... either way, that's gotta get fixed.   2 missed FG's besides the extra point block.  Wheaton needs Sam Cote to find his mojo. 

3) QB Johnny Peltz wasn't nearly as accurate as he's been the past 2 weeks, going 22 of 34.  He had a few throws that came in low, including a Tim Tebow-like, fake-the-run, then jump-pop-pass at the goal line.  Obviously, it's a bit expected to see JP's completion % come down a bit from it's lofty perch, but what I didn't like to see was the visible (excessive?) frustration JP expressed after errant throws.  It's gonna happen, move on, don't let it affect the next play.  That said, couldn't be happier to see JP leading the orange-and-blue.  The kid's got immense talent and is only gonna get better.

4)  Wheaton needs more from their RB's.  #34 Jesse Geary doesn't seem to be running with much authority at all, maybe there's a lingering injury?  #32 Danny Puknaitis is the more explosive, tougher-to-tackle runner right now.  I don't think it's realistic to keep expecting Peltz to lead the team in rushing yards.  Wheaton needs Jesse and Danny to refuse to go down on contact.

5)  #6 Keegan Kemp and #18 Luke Thorson continue to be very impressive.  I've seen Kemp make some incredible catches the last 3 weeks.  In fact, his performance vs NCC went largely unrecognized on the boards here, but Wheaton doesn't win that game without Keegan Kemp aggressively fighting for catches on balls that could have easily been intercepted.  I'd like to see Wheaton use Luke's height more.  The kid is 6'4" with hops.  Let's see the Mark Loeffler-like fade to the corner when we get down to the goal-line... I don't see many CB's being able to stop that.

6)  Loved seeing #2 Andrew Bowers on the field (with JP @ QB).  The kid's got some obvious jukes, elusiveness, and quicks to him.  Plus his ability to pull up and throw the ball (on reverses or maybe even some type of wildcat formation?) adds another element that opposing DC's need to prepare for.  OC Josiah Sears has to be licking his chops over the possibilities.

That's all for the details.  My overall takeaway was that if Wheaton were playing NCC today, they lose by 17.

Thunderdog – Agree, hats off to Wheaton for winning at least a share of the CCIW championship and the outright AQ.  They have out-played expectations and they deserve a championship this year.

Wheaton's stats against IWU were not as good as they have been in recent weeks.  The numbers show some interesting things.

The Wheaton quarterback carousel has finally stopped squarely on J. Peltz – and it looks like Wheaton has thrown away the keys to that carousel and plan to go the distance with J. Peltz. 

After two meteoric weeks of stats at QB, J. Peltz came back to earth a bit this past week.  Must remember that he is only a soph with less than a handful of college starts.  But man when Wheaton finally landed on their QB they went all in – absolutely putting the entire offense on his back (or more accurately his legs).  J. Peltz was required to carry the ball 18 times this week – that's more carries than Wheaton's two running backs COMBINED.  That's asking a lot from their young QB (not to mention the risk of injury)– especially when they appear to have two very capable RB's.  And statistically all the QB runs did not appear to be all that effective this week..  We'll have to see if Wheaton stays with that game plan – teams will be ready for it I'm sure.

Also agree that Wheaton's place kicking game is anemic.  S. Cote is only 47% on field goals with a couple of missed PAT's to boot (pardon the pun) including two missed short FG's and a missed PAT this past week.  Wheaton has a small army of kickers on their roster.  Looks like they have another kicker handling the KO's who has a good leg.  As fast as they have run through QB's, it's very surprising the kicker carousel hasn't started yet.  A top 10 team in the country with the 86th ranked FG kicker who is kicking under 50% just doesn't compute.  I'd fully expect to see a change here.

Also agree Wheaton's receiver core has been impressive with K. Kemp and L. Thorson leading the way.

Wheaton's defense has been very strong.  Some great stats across the board including their LB's putting up some very good numbers.  Don't be surprised to see some all-conf selections coming from this defense.

If Wheaton can win out this week, they could get a pretty good "seed" going into the big dance.

Quote from: thunder38 on October 24, 2014, 07:53:30 PM

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 24, 2014, 03:39:32 PM

Quote from: USee on October 24, 2014, 08:38:12 AM
Kovo,

What he said was:

Quote from: D3gridiron on October 24, 2014, 02:00:34 AM
There are 109 D3 field goal kickers in the entire nation who have had enough FG attempts this season to be ranked.  Wheaton's senior kicker is ranked #95 in the nation out of 109.  NCC's freshman kicker is ranked #16.  That's the difference between 46% success and 82% success.  We are not talking about top versus bottom of the conference.  We are talking about NCC being among the top in the nation and Wheaton being at the bottom in this category.

If that's not "bad" I don't know what is.

A few (okay, actually a bunch of) words on the kicking/FG discussion:

Noting that one team has made 6/13 FG's in six games while another has made 9/11 sounds like a big difference when it's framed as "46% vs. 82%" or "16th in the nation vs. 95th in the nation" but there is SO much other noise (how long were the FGs? what kind of wind/weather/field conditions?) that the raw percentages are all but useless.  If one kid is money on cheapies inside the 20 but never kicks a long one, while another coach is a bit more adventurous and tries the occasional 48-yarder because he believes in his kicker, that second kid might have a lower accuracy number just because he's trying harder attempts.  Classic Simpson's paradox, if you're a stats geek.  See, look:

North Central's kicking game has made 9/11 FG's, ranging from 27-39 yards.  Misses from 27 and 33 yards.

Wheaton's kicking game has made 6/13 FG's, ranging from 25-56 yards...but four of the misses are from a longer range (43, 44, 53, 56) than anything attempted by NCC's field-goal outfit.  Remove those four, and Wheaton is 6/9 on FG attempts from 25-37 yards.  Misses from 25, 35, and 37.

That puts a lot more context on those numbers; it's not as though NCC has some cannon-legged kicker bombing 50-yard FG's while Wheaton can't hit the broadside of a barn on an extra point attempt.  Inside 40 yards, they're actually pretty darned similar.  9/11 (82%) vs. 6/9 (67%) still sounds like a difference to some people, though, so let's debunk that notion even further.  If we took two hypothetical kickers of exactly the same ability and gave one of them 11 FG attempts, then gave the other 9 FG attempts (now assuming that all FG attempts are identical) the chances of one kid going 9/11 or better while the other kid went 6/9 or worse would be about sixty-one percent.  That's a long way from p<.05, my friends.  There is no statistical evidence at all that either kicking game is better than the other on FG's inside of 40 yards.  Wheaton missing a few long FG's doesn't exactly point to a big disadvantage in the kicking game.

But wait, there's more data we can include: extra-point attempts, which are 19-yard field goals.  NCC is 31/34 on PAT attempts, Wheaton is 21/22.  Add those into the mix and now we're talking about NCC converting 40/45 (88.9%) of its kicks inside 40 yards while Wheaton is converting 27/31 (87.1%). 

I hope that puts to bed any ideas that either team has a significant advantage in the field-goal-and-extra-point-kicking game.

Several other things to ExTartan's breakdown is that the blocking for Wheaton has not been what we're used to seeing either. Though credited for only two, Cote has actually had four kicks either get blocked or tipped including one last week. He also had the one against UW-EC get tipped but still go through. Cote was outstanding against Augie two weeks ago and looked confident last week but had the long attempt blocked and just never pushed the short attempt far enough over. There's a couple of factors as well which ExTartan eluded to:

Week 1 vs. Coe - 2-3 - missed 44 yards (rolled snap, had distance but left)
Week 2 at Kzoo - 1-2 - missed 56 yards on rushed attempt on last play of the half
Week 3 vs. UW-EC - 1-3 - missed 35 and 37 (35 was in a driving rain and the ball knuckled off wide, 37 was blocked, both low snaps)
Week 5 vs. North Park - none attempted
Week 6 at Augie - 2-3 - missed 53 (blocked on last play of half)
Week 7 at Millikin - 0-2 - missed 25 (25 left hash and missed left, 43 blocked)

He was a finalist for the Fred Mitchell Award last year and a preseason watchlist for the award for the second year this year so clearly the kid has some talent. The operation needs to be smooth and the protection needs to hold. If both of these can happen, Cote has the kind of leg to be a difference maker in a game that looks like it will be played under pristine conditions tomorrow night.

This field goal thing (NCC versus Wheaton) has struck a nerve for some reason.  It's interesting, a lot of the posts are referencing back to Wheaton's stats last season or even two seasons ago.  Facts are...2012 Wheaton FG performance was average middle of the pack (62%), last year good at 75%, and this year very poor (46%).  Some posters are talking a lot about perceived talent and ability (opinion) of the Wheaton kicker.  I have only talked about this year's measured performance - facts.  As we all know perceived talent and ability doesn't always translate to performance.

I've always thought of the Wheaton program as a straight forward, no nonsense, no excuses program (to their credit for sure).  But the responses to this season's poor FG performance versus NCC performance have been interesting to say the least. 

The excuses go on and on...The snapper isn't any good.  Throw the holder under the bus.  The line blocking is sub par –leading to blocked attempts (low kicks get blocked too).  The coach is over adventurous.  Kicking attempts have to be rushed.  Had to take a 25-yard field goal from the left hash (give me a break).  Some have even posed hypothetical scenarios leading to hypothetical statistics.  At some point I thought one of you were going to say he had to take some kicks with his left foot. 

It just seems like everyone is making excuses for the Wheaton kicker.  Every D3 kicker gets bad snaps, bad holds, poor blocking, rushed attempts, and chances to be pushed beyond their comfort zones.  All have to deal with adverse weather conditions.  These things are not unique to Wheaton and don't somehow put Wheaton's kicker at some unfair disadvantage as the posts seem to imply.  The NCC kicker has to deal with the same adversities (and don't forget he is only a freshman).

One post even mentioned Wheaton's kicker as a potential all-american for this year.  Difficult for me to believe that's even being discussed for a FG kicker that's 6-13 on the season and has missed 6 of his last 9 attempts (the LONGEST of those three makes was only 27 yards).  This year's end of season awards will be based on this year's performance (unless some serious political horse trading takes place).  And right now NCC FG performance (and several other CCIW teams) has been better.

S. Cote has had the chance to shine this year on kicks in the low 40's and the 50's (credit his coach for that).  Unfortunately he was not able to successfully use those opportunities to differentiate himself from the field.  And he struggled at closer ranges too, including missing a 25 yarder.   Now he is ranked at the bottom in the nation.  Even if you take out the two 50's attempts (which several have tried to do in their posts), the Wheaton kicker is still only middle of the national pack at best.  NCC' s kicker remains at the top.

And a few more FACTS...

Only two FG kickers in the entire nation have missed more field goal attempts this season then S. Cote.  And one of those kickers even has a higher FG percentage than S. Cote.  You won't see NCC's Zavaglia on this list.

Wheaton's long field goal this year is 38 yards.  NCC's is 39 yards.

USee --

On the turnover issue - maybe it's just an "advantage" for NCC and not a "strong advantage" - I could see your argument here.

On the Field Goal issue - I'd have to disagree.  My comments were based on observed current measured performance.  There are 109 D3 field goal kickers in the entire nation who have had enough FG attempts this season to be ranked.  Wheaton's senior kicker is ranked #95 in the nation out of 109.  NCC's freshman kicker is ranked #16.  That's the difference between 46% success and 82% success.  We are not talking about top versus bottom of the conference.  We are talking about NCC being among the top in the nation and Wheaton being at the bottom in this category.  Digging deeper into the numbers, Wheaton has missed 3 of it's last 5 FG attempts and 6 of it's last 9 FG attempts, NCC has only missed two FG's all season (out of a total of 11 attempts).  So my comments were based on the numbers - and they seem to indicate strong advantage NCC in this particular category.

Quote from: AndOne on October 23, 2014, 09:38:49 PM
BIG PLAYS-

As previously reported by USee, Wheaton has 18 plays of over 20 yards so far this season. 5 have gone for TDs.
North Central has almost twice as many at 35, including 15 TDs.

Thanks AndOne!

BIG PLAYS -- STRONG ADVANTAGE NCC

Quote from: AndOne on October 23, 2014, 05:25:27 PM
THOUGHTS ON NCC @ WC

* NCC gladly gets their #1 RB, Ryan Kent back for this game, after his being held out last week following a minor injury 2 weeks ago. WC has a very good RB in Jesse Geary, but in direct comparison he has about 100 less rushing yards in one more game played than Kent. However Geary has the skill to have a great game at any time as evidenced by last year's NCC game in which he was excellent.
I sense the factor that can tilt the running game in the Cardinal's favor can be their depth. As good as Kent is, and remember he is coming off a week of inactivity, the Cards have 3 other very good backs. Speedy/shifty O'Shayne Brown had 84 yards on only 7 carries, a 12.0 average, last week. For the season he is averaging  6.1. Powerful Zach Pattat checks in at 5.3, and versatile Matt Randolph, also a very good receiver out of the backfield, runs for a whopping 7.2 average.
Little do I know, but while Ryan Kent should be the primary back, I feel liberal employment of all these guys will cause the WC run defense fits, considering the unique primary skill set each brings to the action.

* Both QBs are inexperienced. I don't know enough about Peltz to comment. NCC's Warden has misfired to a number of wide open receivers. He needs to set his feet and step into his throws. When he fails to find an open target or isn't well protected by the O line, he is an excellent escape artist, averaging almost 6 yards a carry. Which young QB will maintain his poise and deliver in the clutch?

* From what I have read about the WC D, it seems their strength is great LB play from ALL 3 backers. I would guess they will usually pack the box in an attempt to stuff the Cards ground game. If so, the Redbird receivers need to find space/seams over the LBs and in front of or between the WC DB zones, and Warden needs to control his usual initial happy feet tendency, set and find the open man, and HIT him.

* NCC does well in stopping the run. Not so well vs the pass. If WC insists on running I think they play to NCC's hand. Rather it seems the Orange need to use the pass to set up the run rather than vice versa. Getting the Red D thinking pass might well open some space and allow Geary to get to the second level.

* I see the very real possibility of a close game wherein 3 sub plots beyond the obvious running and passing totals may well be the deciding factors.

1. Turnovers. If either team can force +2 TOs, they likely win. If one can get to +3, I think you almost certainly have a winner.
2. BIG plays. Whether by pass, run, or return, if one team can break +2 big plays, it will go a long way in contributing to a W.
3. The kicking game. Which kicker can hit the pressure FG? Which punter can employ hang time and directional kicking to help keep the other bottled up in their own end?

Interesting sub-plots.  Here's what I could find out through 6 games...

TURNOVERS - STRONG ADVANTAGE NCC
Wheaton:  +3 turnovers on season, ave +0.5 turnovers per game
NCC:  + 10 turnovers on season, ave +1.7 turnovers per game

BIG PLAYS - ADVANTAGE NCC
Don't have great data here but it seems like NCC is the big play team and Wheaton has the defense to stop the big play.  Seems like advantage NCC, but really not sure about this.  Perhaps someone could help me here.

KICKING
FIELD GOALS -- STRONG ADVANTAGE NCC
Wheaton: 6-13, 46%
NCC:  9-11, 83%

KICK OFFS -- ADVANTAGE WHEATON
Wheaton:  58.6 ave, 39.1 net, 25 yd line opp ave start, TB=4
NCC:  56.3 ave, 37.7 net, 27 yd line opp ave start, TB=1

PUNTING -- ADVANTAGE WHEATON
Wheaton:  35.8 ave, I20=7
NCC: 32.2 ave, I20=7

Quote from: USee on October 23, 2014, 04:24:45 PM

Quote from: D3gridiron on October 23, 2014, 03:53:51 PM
The QB carousel at Wheaton continues and may be a deciding factor in the big game this Saturday night.  Wheaton has now started three different QB's in six games.  As some have already observed, Peltz was quick to tuck the ball and run last week - understandable since I believe last week was the sophomore's first college start in his career.   The offense sputtered a bit last week, and points didn't come until late in the game.  Although it didn't help Peltz's cause that Wheaton missed two more field goals last week on drives that stalled within range.

All three of Wheaton's QB's have different strengths and weaknesses, which can make it difficult to draw direct comparisons between them.  But on the intangible side of things, their senior QB, Butler, seems to have the best overall understanding and be the best leader of the Wheaton offense  (it's just tough to replace competent senior leadership).  So Butler could be a logical choice for the big game.  We will see who they decide to start at QB.  This decision will play a very important role going into Saturday night's game.

Well, judging from the actions of the coaches rather than the speculation of us fans, it appears that Andrew Bowers is their choice. 3 games ago he started against North Park and Peltz was playing receiver. Butler played the second half of the NPU game. Bowers started against Augie and was unimpressive. Butler came in late and finished the game. Then Peltz starts and plays whole game against Millikin. Those are the facts so the question is "why"?

I am speculating that they went with Bowers because they felt like he was their best chance. Bowers got hurt vs NPU so Butler came back in. Bowers started against Augie and played poorly. Butler replaced him after Wheaton had gotten the lead back, which leads me to believe he "re-injured" whatever was bothering him. Otherwise why do you replace a QB who is playing poorly after you take the lead back? Then, against Millikin we see Peltz for the whole game with no sign of Butler. So you don't move Peltz back from receiver to play QB if you think Bowers is ok or if you are fine with Bulter. That makes me think Bowers is still hurt. So for this week, I suspect it's Bowers if he is healthy and Peltz if he is not. But I really have no clue.

I never would have guessed that. I assumed Bowers was probably out of the conversation since he didn't play at all last week, but I didn't think about an injury possibility since I didn't read anything about that. But I have no clue either. Thanks for your insight. It will be interesting to see which QB they choose.

The QB carousel at Wheaton continues and may be a deciding factor in the big game this Saturday night.  Wheaton has now started three different QB's in six games.  As some have already observed, Peltz was quick to tuck the ball and run last week - understandable since I believe last week was the sophomore's first college start in his career.   The offense sputtered a bit last week, and points didn't come until late in the game.  Although it didn't help Peltz's cause that Wheaton missed two more field goals last week on drives that stalled within range.

All three of Wheaton's QB's have different strengths and weaknesses, which can make it difficult to draw direct comparisons between them.  But on the intangible side of things, their senior QB, Butler, seems to have the best overall understanding and be the best leader of the Wheaton offense  (it's just tough to replace competent senior leadership).  So Butler could be a logical choice for the big game.  We will see who they decide to start at QB.  This decision will play a very important role going into Saturday night's game.

Quote from: USee on October 22, 2014, 11:56:31 AM
As a follow up to the potential playoff and Pool C considerations for the loser of this weekends matchup, Pool C could only have 5 spots this year (instead of 6) which would make a 9-1 Wheaton team almost a non-bid lock. I know that may surprise many people but this weekend really is a win or go home game for the Thunder in reality. I just don't see 9-1 getting them in this year with a weak SOS and only 5 spots.

Agree this is win or go home for both Wheaton and North Central.