Quote from: thunderdog on November 09, 2017, 12:44:01 PMQuote from: CardinalAlum on November 09, 2017, 12:18:30 PM
Best case scenario for Wheaton to get in? I still believe Wheaton is a top 10 team in the country and if they find their way in to the playoffs, they will make some noise. There isn't a #1 or 2 seed that would want to play them. Just my opinion.
Ok, here goes:
1) Wabash MUST beat DePauw. Pretty obvious. Right now WC sits #3 within just the North region for a potential pool C. DePauw would need to lose and then be ranked lower than WC, which given the RACs rationale for things so far this year, is no gimme (even though it should be, IMO)
2) DelVal MUST beat Widener. If Widener wins, they steal the AQ from DelVal, pushing DelVal into pool C consideration. Given DelVal is #1 in the East, unless they lost really ugly, they'd still be a very strong candidate for a pool C, hurting WC's chances significantly.
3) IWU MUST beat Millikin. Already discussed the logjam of 8-2 teams if Millikin wins. IWU would need to be the first team up in the North, with WC right behind.
Then I think WC would need at least 1, preferably 2, of these 3 things to happen:
4) Springfield loses to MIT. If Springfield wins, their undefeated. They'd either be a lock for the 2nd pool B bid behind UMBH, or if that goes to Hardin-Simmons, they'd be a virtual lock for a pool C. If they lose, it's possible Springfield misses the playoffs entirely, opening a spot.
5) Case Western Reserve loses to Carnegie Mellon. In the PAC, Washington & Jefferson is in the driver's seat for the AQ, pushing CWR into pool C consideration. If undefeated, they're a lock, if not, they're in the same boat as Springfield, IMO.
6) Frostburg St loses to Salisbury. Currently Frosty is a solid candidate for the last pool C spot, if they lose, they're done.
So, IMO, if the top 3 happen, and 1-2 of the bottom 3 happen, then that gets WC to the table. What happens from there, who knows... But I don't think it's a stretch to consider WC the top 2-loss team in the country. A 4 point loss to IWU in the final seconds, a 3 point loss to Millikin in the final seconds (I've already shared my opinions on both those losses) and then a solid victory over the CCIW's AQ (most likely) in North Central. I don't think any other 2 loss team will have the same quality of win that WC has over NCC.
So given this (through) analysis, am I correct in deducing that Wheaton has a 0% chance of making playoffs after the results of today?