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Messages - lmitzel

#1
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: D3 Championship Belt
March 09, 2025, 12:30:06 PM
Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on March 09, 2025, 11:51:19 AMWesleyan hosted a Belt battle with Williams, which they lost in overtime on January 7th, 2004, one game before Williams lost the belt to Amherst.

So Stealth Era TM, which I didn't have on the map. That tracks.
#2
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: D3 Championship Belt
March 09, 2025, 11:19:05 AM
Emory 84
Berry 68

2024-25 BeltTM Path
3/16/24: Trine
12/7/24: UW-Stevens Point
12/20/24: Randolph-Macon
3/1/25: Guilford
3/7/25: Berry
3/8/25: Emory

For the second time in their history, Berry won The BeltTM on the first day of a two day tournament, then didn't get to take it home as they lost the second game. Emory, meanwhile, takes possession of The BeltTM for the first time since the 2007-08 season.

The Eagles will take on Mary Washington in the Sweet Sixteen; they've had The BeltTM a few times, most recently back in the 2022-23 season. Meanwhile, I got to put a new marker on the map as this pod will take place at Wesleyan University; the Cardinals have never hosted a BeltTM game before.
#3
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: D3 Championship Belt
March 08, 2025, 09:37:25 AM
Been a minute since we've seen a handover this early.

Berry 80
Guilford 77

The Vikings hit a go-ahead three with about a minute to go to get what turns out was their first ever win in the NCAA Tournament.

2024-25 BeltTM Path
3/16/24: Trine
12/7/24: UW-Stevens Point
12/20/24: Randolph-Macon
3/1/25: Guilford
3/7/25: Berry

One and done: '25 Guilford, '17 Bethel, '12 Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, '09 Transylvania, '08 Chicago
Round of 32: '19 Nebraska Wesleyan, '18 York (PA), '07 Hampden-Sydney
Sweet 16: '23 Randolph-Macon, '20 Elmhurst*, '14 Albertus Magnus, '11 UWSP, '10 Wooster
Elite 8: '16 Alma
Final 4: '13 St. Thomas
Title Game: '22 Elmhurst, '15 Augustana
Champion: None

Berry's second time in possession of The BeltTM will pit them against host Emory.
#4
Going back to when the NCC women ran it, yeah, your best players will get more shifts and get theirs still even with fewer minutes than a non-System team.

I always looked at it as a thing where if the talent level of the two teams is relatively even, the style of play could be a deciding factor. But if the team playing someone running The System is more talented, you get things like the Wheaton result over Grinnell or Matt Cappelletti putting up 47 and Connor Raridon recording NCC's only triple-double against Greenville during the 2019-20 campaign.

I had to go back and look it up, but I remembered Augie got Greenville in the first round one year. They won, but I'd remembered that it wasn't a cakewalk by any stretch (and when I looked at the box score... holy crap, Augie got a scare in that game).
#5
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: D3 Championship Belt
March 03, 2025, 02:37:27 PM
So Guilford will be taking The BeltTM to Atlanta for the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Their first round opponent, Berry, held The BeltTM during the 2021-22 season for like 24 hours if memory serves.

The other first round matchup down there is between Huntingdon, who has never had The BeltTM before; and Emory, who last had possession during the 2007-08 season. That is also the last time the Woodruff Center was the site of a BeltTM game; they'll get two this weekend.
#6
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: D3 Championship Belt
March 01, 2025, 03:50:22 PM
Only took going to the Salem Civic Center for the 34th time for The BeltTM to change hands.

2024-25 BeltTM Path
3/16/24: Trine
12/7/24: UW-Stevens Point
12/20/24: Randolph-Macon
3/1/25: Guilford

This is Guilford's first time in possession since last season.
#7
Quote from: Stertorous Thunder on February 28, 2025, 10:34:29 PMThe Drew Gaston & Terrance Moncrief Show was fantastic - but just barely not enough for North Central to upset Carthage tonight. The Carthage MVP was the cameraman who permitted the out-of-bounds call to be overturned on replay.

Honestly, it was the right call to overturn it. Looked pretty clear off Gaston to me.

My beef is more so with Carthage's PA announcer. Not because he stole my thing (which, to be fair, I also stole from a guy who announced a middle school tournament I played in in Elgin forever ago) but because I was under the impression that the CCIW Tournament was supposed to be more of a neutral site thing and there was a clear imbalance in three calls between the two teams.

Obviously not pointing at that for the outcome; Carthage played just better enough to win. I'm just a little bitter because I've played nice in all of my CCIW Tournament games and now I'm questioning everything.

Rant over. Congrats to Carthage on a hard fought win. And congrats to NCC on a good season. Going to miss Ethan, Drew, and Terrance.
#8
I caught the first few minutes of the game where the Cardinals built their lead, then missed a chunk while I was coaching my son's youth basketball team, but managed to catch most of the final 10 minutes or so, including that final sequence. Great play call by the Vikings on the Nelson three, followed by the ever popular "NononononoYES!" three by Helwig.

Maybe the most underrated part that we leave out: North Park's Tristan Arneaud missed a fast break layup with maybe about 30 seconds left that would have totally changed the calculus of that ending, then proceeded to foul Terrance Moncrief, who hit both free throws to make it 91-89 and setting up the photo finish.

NCC becomes the first 6 seed to win a CCIW Tournament game on the men's side.

Good job on the call as always tonight, Greg!
#9
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: D3 Championship Belt
February 24, 2025, 06:16:43 PM
Still not a lot to update here. Randolph-Macon has had 16 consecutive defenses going into the ODAC Tournament.

Another successful defense Wednesday would be their 14th at home, extending their record for the Modern Era. Regardless of that result though, the Salem Civic Center will get two more BeltTM games this weekend, bringing their all time high for games to 35.

We also have another year where whoever ends with The BeltTM will also get that other, lesser, object made of wood and metal.
#10
And here's clinching scenarios for Saturday on the men's side. My spreadsheet showing my work is at the end of the Twitter thread.
#11
Here's a Twitter thread with the clinching scenarios for Saturday.

I look forward to the CCIW putting out their release about it tomorrow or Friday that basically confirms everything I figured out on Monday night/super early Tuesday morning.
#12
Cardinals grab the 6th and final spot in the CCIW Tournament.

NCC 80
Carroll 76

I only paid passing attention to this game. The Cardinals led 9-0 out of the gate and were up 19-6 at one point early. But Carroll fought back and took the lead for the first time with just under six minutes to go before the Cardinals fought right back. NCC didn't allow a field goal over the final 2:12 to turn a two point deficit into the four point victory.

Terrance Moncrief: 24 pts, 5 reb, 4 ast
Ethan Helwig: 14 pts, 5 reb
Tyler DiSilvio: 13 pts
Drew Gaston: 13 pts

Erik Victorson: 13 pts, 5 reb
Kobe Simpson: 12 pts
Jacob Naber: 10 pts, 5 reb
Eckahelo Simpson: 7 pts, 10 reb
#13
Quote from: iwu70 on February 19, 2025, 10:27:21 PMIn another dominant win by IWU, the Titans go to 23-1, 14-1 winning at North Central, 79-55

It was 44-17 at the half.

For NCC:

Daly 14
McClure 10
Trotter 6 and 8

NCC with 28 TOs.

Shooting 42%, 25% from three, and 75% from the line.


For IWU:

White 15, 5 boards, and 7 steals
Bardic 14
Balli 13
Huber 12 and 11 -- inching closer to the all-time career scoring mark at IWU. She needs 8 more.
Palmer 10 with no TOs.

IWU had 21 steals, winning the rebounding line 38-28, and scoring 46 points off of TOs.

IWU shooting 47%, 38% from three, and 90% from the FT line.

One more game @ Augie on Saturday, then the CCIW tournament at home, at The Shirk.

What a season, what a run.

'70

Things were fine for the first few minutes. NCC was able to get across halfcourt on the first few possessions and forced the Titans to play in the halfcourt on the other end to keep it close down 7-6. Aaaaaand then it all went to hell, they couldn't take care of the ball, and the Titans did what they do and took full advantage of it. All told, that 23-0 Titan run was the story of the game.

Honestly this probably should have been a 40 point margin, but Mia Smith called off the dogs with five or six minutes to go and called a very pissed off timeout with about two minutes to play when the Cardinals got the margin back to 20.

Talking with Maggie McCloskey-Bax postgame, we agreed that the best thing that could have happened to the Titans was losing at Carthage a week and a half ago. This team is the real deal.

Also had a very nice brief postgame chat with Mia Smith when she was on her way down from the loft after her postgame interview. Much respect.
#14
Okay, I was up until almost 1 this morning working on this, but here's the women's scenarios.

First the standings:
*IWU13-1
z-CRL11-3
x-CAR8-6
WHE7-7
MIL7-7
NCC6-8
ELM6-8
AUG6-9
e-NPU0-15

Top two seeds are locked in, and I discovered after I finished that Carthage is for sure in (that win over IWU is doing a lot of heavy lifting). They're the likely 3 seed, with five other teams fighting for those final 3 spots.

There's a lot of fun scenarios; both NCC and Elmhurst have an outside shot at stealing the 4 seed; they would both need to win out and get some help to do so. We also have an ultimate Chaos ScenarioTM in play: if both NCC and Elmhurst win out, Wheaton beats Millikin, and Millikin beats Carthage, we get a FIVE-WAY TIE for 3rd at 8-8.

Augie also has an outside shot at as high as the 5 seed if they beat IWU on Saturday.
#15
Okay, took longer than I hoped it would, but I'm ready. Here's our standings with a week to go.

z-CAR12-2
z-IWU11-3
y-NPU9-6
x-AUG7-7
x-ELM7-7
NCC6-8
MIL5-10
e-CRL4-10
e-WHE3-11

Let's start at the top. Carthage has a one game lead with two to play; their magic number is 1. The only way Illinois Wesleyan can steal the top seed is by winning out and Carthage losing out. These two teams have also locked up the byes to the weekend.

North Park, despite its tailspin over the past couple of weeks, is still in good shape in the conference race. A win at Illinois Wesleyan locks them into the #3 seed. Even with a loss, the Vikings would take that slot unless we see a three-way 9-7 tie between them, Augie, and Elmhurst, in which case the Rock Islanders will be the three and NPU falls to four.

Augie holds the tiebreaker over Elmhurst, so they're currently in the driver's seat for the four seed. Elmhurst would need to surpass them to steal it.

NCC's magic number to grab the final spot is 1. The Cardinals can finish anywhere from 4-6; they would only get the home quarterfinal if they win out, Elmhurst loses out, and Augie loses at least to IWU.

Millikin would need to win its final game against IWU AND have NCC lose out to steal the last spot.

Spreadsheet with all the scenarios.