Quote from: NCC2010 on February 13, 2025, 12:31:59 PMLooks like UW Stout will also be hosting Wartburg in 2025, that's a great matchup

This is the 2nd leg of a home & home from a couple years ago that Wartburg won 27-0. It was Wartburg's second game and Stout's first of the season. That was a good Stout team, too. They had two 1st team All-WIAC receivers and a 1st team All-WIAC QB that was my model's offensive MVP in 2021. They couldn't get anything going offensively. They have a new coordinator since then, so I'm sure they'll come in with a different gameplan, but in 2022 it looked like they thought they could just line up and run their base/camp offense and rely on their athleticism to win matchups.

Quote from: DriftlessDuhawk on January 29, 2025, 03:54:02 PMA few schedules have started being released.

UD: https://udspartans.com/sports/football/schedule

NWU: https://nwusports.com/sports/football/schedule

UD stepping up to the plate with some heavy hitters out of the WIAC. NWU going the NAIA route and I don't know much about either team.

Both schools are ok. UWL played a couple games against Dakota State recently, and UWL won pretty handily. Mayville State has played NWU recently, too, and won a close one. Mayville also played BVU a few years ago, and split a home & home. Dakota State's usually a little above 0.500 in a pretty solid conference, and Mayville State usually a bit below 0.500. I would say the expectation for NWU-Mayville St. would be a close, competitive game, with Mayville St. slightly favored. If NWU beats Dakota St., that would be a sign that they've improved quite a bit over the offseason.

It's interesting hearing that Platteville fans thought the announcers on ESPN for the Wartburg game were homers, because as a Wartburg homer, I have no idea who those announcers were. Wasn't the normal student crew on their live streams, and it wasn't the local radio crew, either. Lots of names being mispronounced for both teams.

Quote from: Fido0650 on November 30, 2024, 03:17:20 PMYour "crystal ball" must have been broken like a McDonalds ice cream machine because 42-7 is a little more the 1/2 point between the scores.

Yeah, was a big miss! Glad you had enough confidence in the team to wait until after the game to call out the prediction for being too pessimistic  .

Happy for the Mount Union fans, but like other people on this thread have said, this was easily their best performance of the season. Far from being broken, I think the model did what it was supposed to do setting a baseline expectation. It wouldn't make sense for a computer model to predict outlier performances.

While we're talking about bulletin board material for Mount Union...

Here's a video/audio breakdown of my advanced stats preview for the game! Which my model thinks should only be a (gasp) half point spread in Mount Union's favor.
DIII Football Advanced Stats Preview - NCAA Playoffs Round 2 | Mount Union vs. John Carroll

I go over this in the video, but the spread is as close as it is because more recent games matter more in my model than in other models (like Massey or Bill Connelly's SP+, which have this as a 10-ish point spread in Mount's favor). And I don't think it's very controversial to say Mount's last game was not a good one.

Quote from: jakeMN91 link=msg=212447538.7 and 39.0 are pretty similar. Is that difference within the margin of error of your model so to speak, or can you say with certainty that 2023 UW-RF was better than 2024 UW-L?

It's close enough that the difference could be attributable to one or two missed/made field goals throughout the season. I was trying to be a little cheeky saying they aren't the best 3-loss team of the last two years. It's basically a tie.

Quote from: hazzben on November 26, 2024, 10:37:51 AMUWL looks like about the best 3 loss team ever, with two close WIAC losses and a loss to D2 power GVSU.

This is something I can look up in my ratings! They're not even the best 3-loss team of the last 2 years but that's only because UW-River Falls last year was 7-3, ranked #7 in the country (same as UW-La Crosse right now), and had a rating of 39.0 (UWL is at 38.7 right now) - the highest rating since 1997 for a 3-loss team.

If I limit myself to just teams with 3 losses in the regular season, here were the best 3+ loss teams each season.

2024: UW-La Crosse (7-3, #7, 38.7)
2023: UW-River Ralls (7-3, #7, 39.0)
2022: UW-Oshkosh (6-4, #6, 38.0)
2021: UW-Oshkosh (6-3, #15, 31.7)
2019: UW-La Crosse (7-3, #15, 30.6)
2018: UW-La Crosse (7-3, #15, 28.7)
2017: John Carroll (6-4, #15, 30.6)
2016: UW-Stevens Point (6-4, #21, 22.5)
2015: North Central (7-3, #15, 29.0)
2014: UW-Oshkosh (6-4, #9, 34.3)
2013: Salisbury (7-4, #22, 23.0)
2012: UW-Whitewater (7-3, #9, 37.3)
2011: UW-Oshkosh (7-3, #8, 35.4)
2010: St. John's (7-3, #11, 33.9)
2009: UW-Stevens Point (7-6, #10, 29.0)
2008: UW-Eau Claire (6-4, #8, 27.9)
2007: UW-La Crosse (5-4, #4, 31.4)
2006: Ohio Northern (6-4, #13, 27.2)
2005: UW-La Crosse (5-4, #8, 31.6)
2004: UW-La Crosse (7-4, #4, 32.8) - There were 5 teams with 3 regular season losses in my model's Top 10 this season: UWL, SJU, UWW, UWSP, and UWEC
2003: UW-Stout (6-4, #8, 30.3)
2002: UW-Stout (7-3, #15, 27.3)
2001: John Carroll (7-3, #12, 27.9)
2000: UW-River Falls (6-4, #7, 28.0)
1999: Willamette (7-4, #8, 27.5) - The #9 team this year was UWRF, who finished 5-5 on the season
1998: UW-River Falls (7-3, #8, 30.6)
1997: UW-Eau Claire (7-3, #4, 33.2)

Quote from: hazzben on November 25, 2024, 02:53:29 PMAm I remembering correctly that Wart was using a two QB system and throwing more than in the past?

It's not a 2 QB system like what Linfield is doing (where one is more of a pure passer and the other is their team's leading rusher). Both Markham and Dodd have similar skillsets, but the starter Markham's been dealing with some nagging injuries, so occasionally Dodd will get some significant playing time.

Advanced stats preview for Wartburg vs. UW-Platteville. Wartburg is solid across the board – offense, defense, rushing, passing, etc – but not elite like they've been in the last couple years. The opponent adjustments are very kind to UW-Platteville, but they're top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency. Probably the best matchups for Wartburg are in the run game on both sides. UWP always does a great job protecting their QB, and Wartburg hasn't gotten pressured much this season. I think to get a win they'll need to rely on their DBs to make some impact plays.

Quote from: Fannosaurus Rex on September 15, 2023, 10:15:16 AM
I can't figure out how to handicap tomorrow's Central v Coe game.  Central didn't look bad in the first two non-conference games on the road. On the other hand, they didn't look great.  And as for Coe, all I know are some impressive scores, except that it hard to be too impressed without knowing anything about the quality of the competition those scores were hung up against. So now I am wondering, what is the home field advantage worth.  It sure seems to me that for as long as Post Patterns has been around and for as many subjects as we have covered on here, and for as many great minds as there are in this community, we should have come up with an answer to that simple question. It could be the difference between whether or not I get any sleep tonight.

I have the ("an") answer to that question! In my model, each team has a team-specific HFA, that measures how well the team plays at home vs. the road. There are ways to improve any HFA metric (the big ones would be to make another metric that is venue-specific, which measures how much better/worse road teams play at that venue, and the other would be to include total travel distance), but this is good enough, and simple.

I have Central as a 2.5 point favorite, but I think it's fair to say that it could/should be higher than that. Coe is getting too big of a boost for decisively beating a depleted UW-EC team who was without their starting QB (concussion in Week 1) & top WR. Some spectator's analysis from that game was that the UW-EC offense looked completely different from their Week 1 win vs. Concordia-Moorhead (who faired well against a quality PLU squad the next week). Both team's opponent-adjusted margin of victory so far this year (i.e. "how well are you playing") are in the Top 20-35 range. Central's done it against marginally better competition.

As for the HFA? Both teams have very low AdjHFA values (they play just as well on the road as they do at home), so the HFA for this matchup is only about a point & a quarter, half the national average.

Quote from: DriftlessDuhawk on September 08, 2023, 07:44:27 AM

Quote from: DBQ1965 on September 08, 2023, 07:09:25 AM

Quote from: DriftlessDuhawk on September 08, 2023, 06:19:47 AM
Shaping up to be a big week for the conference! Coe and UD will try to go up against some WIAC teams, Wartburg taking on ranked Bethel, Loras going on the road to take on Hope in Michigan which is normally towards the top of the MIAA, and Central going on the road to take on CCIW Illinois Wesleyan. Lots of opportunity for the conference to show its strength. My focus will most likely be on what is happening in Holland but what result would be the best outcome for the conference as a sign of strength?

I plan on making the 40 minute drive down to Holland for the Hope - Loras game.  The Flying Dutchmen usually play very well at home and will be looking to bounce back from last week's road loss to #20 Aurora.  I'll be wearing my UD Spartans cap which might get the attention of some Chicago area Loras alums who make the drive over. As far as UD is concerned ... Go Blue!

In a just world this would be a jailable offense 

When I lived in Madison, I would wear a Marion Barber Gophers jersey tailgating for UW-Madison games, no matter who they played. So you could say I support this in spirit, but I do not support anyone ever actually wearing UD gear.

Quote from: SagatagSam on September 05, 2023, 02:53:55 PM

Quote from: DuffMan on September 05, 2023, 02:11:38 PM
I had no problem with Wartburg until Logan Hansen gave me a bagel last year. >:(

Yeah, damn thing didn't even taste good.

Regarding the Iowa NAIAs vs the Iowa DIIIs, I would say in any given year, the best of each would probably be a pretty good matchup. Having a general idea of the types of recruits that each place is landing, I think the NAIA schools might have a slight edge in that regard, but I'll stack Wartburg's developmental program up with any school in the country. I think most years, the second/third/fourth best NAIA is better than the second/third/fourth best DIII, and on down the line. Best non-playoff team from either division probably favors the DIIIs, just because more Iowa NAIA schools can get in to their playoffs.

Quote from: DriftlessDuhawk on September 01, 2023, 07:45:42 AM
I think the idea of the best Iowa D3 team vs the best Iowa NAIA team would be great though I am not sure of the logistics of this whatesoever.

I've considered/fantasized about this as well (I've fantasized about it more in the wrestling context - Wartburg/Grand View would be an outstanding meet). I think it's more of a conference/institutional philosophical issue than a logistical one that would prevent this from happening. (Although I have no clue whatsoever if the NAIA allows bowl games.)

Quote from: OldAuggie on August 31, 2023, 08:37:31 AM
Lamker has a different model for recruiting it seems and he has a plan. He could be the next Steve Johnson you never know.

Lamker admitted as much in that Star Tribune article I mentioned earlier:

Quote
"And we're going to be different than every other team in our conference. Seventy percent of our roster will be minority students. We have a tremendous staff, and we recruit hard, but we also recruit the schools where the students are going to take a serious interest in Augsburg.

"We have kids from a big variety of economic backgrounds. We have 27 kids working the night shift at FedEx right now, loading trucks, and then coming to football practice in the morning."

Quote from: Pat Coleman on August 31, 2023, 09:56:48 AM

Quote from: hazzben on August 31, 2023, 08:45:09 AM
But to Logan's point. With the protected schedule setup in the MIAC and a UMAC non-con strategy, we need to see Augsburg with a little tougher comp to really know if they're making a jump. It's not the wrong way for them to build. Scheduling WIAC or top ARC teams probably keeps them at .500. They need to get some seasons pushing 7-8 wins so they can build confidence, before they step up the non-con slate IMO.

Play Northwestern because it's low cost and they're often the best team in that conference -- no worries, that's fine.

Way back, Augsburg played Eau Claire. That would be OK.
They've also played Wartburg -- great rivalry in wrestling, obviously, but not a good match right now in football.
But how about someone like Dubuque, Loras, Coe?

I think all three of those schools would probably be interested. Most ARC schools seem to follow the model of "one MWC/NACC/UMAC school, and one MIAC/WIAC/CCIW school". Zweifel has been vocal about wanting to schedule WIAC/MIAC/CCIW schools as much as possible in non-conference. Coe basically only ever has one open week because of their Cornell "rivalry," but they tend to play a MIAC/WIAC/CCIW school in that other slot. And Loras isn't typically as aggressive as the other two in their scheduling, but if they view Augsburg as a winnable game (they should), I could see them scheduling that.