Quote from: bestfancle on September 28, 2017, 02:10:47 PM

Quote from: Shooter McGavin on September 28, 2017, 02:04:54 PM
Shooter's Power Rankings
1. Calvin (9-0-0)
2. Chicago (9-0-0)
3. Tufts (6-0-1)
4. Newark (11-0-0)
5. Hopkins (9-0-0)
6. Messiah (8-1-0)
7. Lycoming (9-1-0)
8. CMU (6-1-1)
9. Trinity (Tx) (8-1-0)
10. St. Thomas (8-1-0)
11. Rowan (9-2-0)
12. Cortland St. (8-1-0)
13. Springfield (7-0-0)
14. CT College (6-0-2)
15. Lynchburg (7-1-1)
-----------------------------------
RV: Wash U, Kenyon, Amherst, Brandeis, Drew, W&L, St. Joe's (Maine), Oneonta St, Haverford, Transylvania, Heidelberg

No JCU  What?

They go into CMU, while higher ranked, and get a tie. They have no losses and should be higher than CMU!

I'm 100% certain that's just an oversight. CMU is one thing - but there is no way Shooter thinks that Kenyon, Transy, and Heidelberg deserve RV consideration and that JCU isn't among the top 5 Great Lakes teams.

Right Shooter? (he types... hopefully)

Quote from: PaulNewman on September 22, 2017, 11:22:00 AM

.... I'm not confused.  Several of us have said Kenyon lost a lot.  They still have had some poor results and should not be sitting at 4-2-2.  I can guarantee you that they are not happy with the outcomes of the last three games.

Domino, you bring up what I think is one of the most important points.  EXPECTATIONS.  ....

Okay - I agree. Performance since 2013 put certain EXPECTATIONS on the 2017 Kenyon side.  But - my point is there is something wrong with the expectations, not with the team. Ask "why did we expect this group to be a top 10 team" - not "what the heck is wrong in that locker room". Why shouldn't they be sitting at 4-2-2? What gives you that impression?  Okay... outshooting Marietta 25-5 and bending the freaking crossbar several times probably tells us the result was an aberration. So, let's say they "should" be 5-2-1. Why are we measuring this group of young men by the standard from a different group of young men?

I didn't watch TMore - but the stats tell me that isn't an unfair result.. perhaps a bit unlucky, but not unfair.  I did watch last night - and Heidelberg can straight up counterattack.  It's myopic to just say that's a game Kenyon "should" win based on 4 years of (truly impressive) success.

Of course the team and staff are unhappy with the last 3 results.  Of course it's folly within the program or within the fan base to just lower the expectations because of graduation.  If Coach Brown was doing anything other than demanding better as they prepare for conference play... he'd be nuts.  Similarly, any program used to winning will suffer through some identity crises in a year where they just aren't as good. 

But searching for the magic dust to explain what ails them is silly. The magic dust is better players.  All of the intangibles being referenced... culture, branding, chemistry, ownership and buy-in.... hell in this case even tactics - are they the difference maker in a contest between 2 elite teams? Yes. But Kenyon isn't elite this year.  The good news is they still are very good - and I think there is enough in Gambier to say they will be elite again in the future. 

Honestly, I don't understand why so many in this thread are confused about "what is wrong" with Kenyon.

ONU graduated 6 regular starters and their top 2 career goal-scorers. Graduated a 3 year starter at GK.  Nobody is asking what is wrong with the Polar Bears.  They are rebuilding.  Also, Geneva, Grove City, and OWU are all pretty good. Yet, even in a rebuilding year, ONU has the talent and the pedigree to be in the conversation for an OAC title (No, I don't think they are beating JCU this year - but I wouldn't be stunned).

Kenyon graduated 5 regular starters and their top 2 career goal-scorers.  Graduated a 4 year starter at GK.  Why are we so confused as to what's wrong?  They are rebuilding.  Also, JCU, TMore, and, it appear HBerg are all pretty good (sorry Marietta, not convinced yet.. yes you drew with Kenyon but you didn't cross midfield).  Even in a rebuilding year, Kenyon has the talent and the pedigree to be in the picture for an NCAC title.

Maybe all the whingeing is just because there are some disappointed Lords homers in the thread - but come on.

ONU is down because Kinkopf, Janusz, Horton and McNeil are really tough to replace.  Are the younger guys talented - yep. Are they "as good".. probably not.

Kenyon is down because Amolo, Glassman, Lee and Clougher are really tough to replace.  Are the younger guys talented - yep. Are they "as good".. probably not.  It's not rocket science.

Quote from: NCAC New England on November 04, 2016, 12:32:03 PM
I wouldn't say ONU would be "screwed" in the strict sense, but if ONU doesn't end up with a bid I think that does go to how badly the selection system is flawed, just as I would have argued if Kenyon had been left out last year or this year.  ONU has been considered one of the top 7-8 teams in the country for virtually the entire season.  I think we've seen this year how even with decent planning a team cannot guarantee a certain SOS.  I would concede that a team can increase its chances for a good SOS but a series of unforeseen events can drop a SOS (or elevate a SOS) far more than could be anticipated ahead of time.  Teams also can't account for strong teams not being ranked or being ranked at the wrong time and/or a team you lost to being ranked at the right or wrong time.  In terms of ONU and their expectations for ranked wins, I don't know that they would have been counting on Oberlin, but I would think they reasonably could have hoped/expected JCU and/or CWRU to be ranked in addition to OWU.  They also could have hoped a team like Heidelberg with some recent relative success might have jumped in.  Sure, ONU could have scheduled one more non-conference heavyweight, but I would not have described their schedule as weak in advance.  Their SOS is going to rise after playing Capital and away at JCU to probably somewhere within the .525-.540 range.  The other candidates will still have a significant edge on SOS but the gap may be reduced enough to make the discussion for the cmte much tougher especially given ONU's far superior winning pct.  In addition to adjusting/changing the criteria perhaps they should consider a system where the national cmte reserves 2-3 spots per year to correct for the more egregious omissions to the tournament based on strict fidelity to the criteria.

Oberlin is the only other team in the region that I would personally feel bad for.  They've had their best season in program history, and they are actually very good and fun to watch.  They play good soccer.  They very well may beat Kenyon tomorrow and then they'll be in. If not, they are stuck with a RvR that is problematic for them.  They could have hoped for CWRU and/or Wabash and/or Heidelberg to be ranked.  I have credited them for wins over Geneva and Grove City, and they did benefit (a lot) for those two on SOS but in fairness they probably knew those two were longshots to get or stay ranked.  Oberlin's SOS should jump back up to DPU/OWU/CMU levels after the games with Wabash and Kenyon.  So SOS will be relatively even with Oberlin having a better winning pct than DPU or OWU and weaker RvR.

This is a strange year when there are so many 6-8 blemish teams still in strong contention for bids in especially in the New England, East and Great Lakes regions, and that's mainly because of so few teams behind them that either didn't take advantage of surpassing them or won't have the right stats by the criteria.  In Great Lakes CMU is right about where they often are in terms of record while their RvR may be a bit weaker than usual.  IMO DPU and OWU have had relatively mediocre years by their standards (especially OWU) and in many years most of us would look at their records and presume a Pool C is out of the question.  I would assume even the cmtes would consider teams placing 4th and 5th in their own conference to be ranked #1 and #2 in Week 2 and then #1 and #4 in Week 3 to be a head-scratching outcome.  That's how it played out with the criteria but I would think one would have to question the criteria when we see outcomes like this.  Even with the criteria I can't really understand DPU being #1.  Yes, they picked up some ranked wins, but otherwise their resume in total IMO is not that impressive.  Put another way, if you had told DPU and OWU that they would have 6 and 7 blemishes each and finish 4th and 5th in the NCAC I would seriously doubt either could have imagined even being in the Pool C discussion.

At any rate, the GL teams in Pool C contention would seem to be Kenyon, ONU, DPU, OWU, CMU and Oberlin.  Either Kenyon or Oberlin will get an AQ.  ONU may get an AQ.  So that would leave 4 teams vying for how many slots?  2? 3? 4?  In my mind the wild cards are what the cmte will do with ONU (if ONU loses to JCU) and CMU (assuming CMU beats CWRU at home).  As some will be quick to remind, these teams won't be competing with just each other but also and maybe more so with teams with roughly similar resumes from other regions.

I can't agree on "I would not have described their schedule as weak in advance" with regard to ONU, and that's coming from a fan of that program.  They always play Wesleyan, and yes, they could have hoped for Case to be "up" again like 2015 after poor (by their own lofty standards) seasons in '12, '13, and '14..  Oberlin is exactly the kind of team you ought to be scheduling - solid, probably will help SoS... but with ONU's senior laden group, you have to think that staff believes that if they play their best soccer they get a result against a program that is typically in the middle of the NCAC pack. 

But the rest?

As I pointed out in an earlier post, without weighting for home/away, and only considering OWP and not OOWP... ONU's SoS from their non conference slate is actually HIGHER than they could have anticipated based on the prior 4 years of results from their non conference opponents.  Cumulative record from their non conference schedule was below .500 in ALL of the prior 4 years.

This isn't a "so-and-so underperformed and hurt our SoS" type of schedule.  This is a "we play in the OAC, which we know has a weak bottom half, and if we therefore choose to feast on HCAC teams for our non conference slate, we have only ourselves to blame" type of schedule.

I hope they take care of business tomorrow so the committee isn't pressed to choose between them and the 3rd or 4th ranked non-AQ teams from New England or the Mid-Atlantic.

Quote from: Midwest Soccer on November 03, 2016, 02:40:22 PM
Domino,

Good analysis but I think it's a far stretch to hope that the loser of the HCAC championship would jump from the bottom 2 rankings into the top 4-5 which is likely where you have to be in order to be selected.

Oberlin is also in a tough spot- Wabash falls from the rankings so they lose a ranked win from the regular season and fail to pick up another ranked win last night in their grudge match even though Wabash is a quality side. Oberlin is 1-3 vs ranked teams this year including head to head losses to 3 teams that are ahead of them (ONU 0-4, Kenyon 2-3, OWU 0-3) . I think their only way into the NCAA tournament is by winning in Gambier on Saturday unless the Great Lakes gets 4-5 at large bids which is highly unlikely.

1.) PSU-B 2.) TM 3.) ONU/JCU (but not both, albeit it would be a travesty if ONU is not in the tournament field, their numbers don't match up well), 4.) R-H/Hanover (but not both), 5.) DePauw 6.) Kenyon and then maybe 7a.) OWU 7b.) Oberlin 7c.) CMU.

For OWU, they need Hanover to stay in the rankings. For CMU, they need JCU to win the OAC and hopefully hop back in the rankings giving them 2 ranked wins. Oberlin...as I said before, I think they need to win the NCAC Championship to guarantee a spot. If they fail to, they fall to 1-4 RvR which will be tough to get in unless the GL region gets more at larges this year than last (they received 3 last year: DePauw, OWU, and Thomas More).

While I agree with Domino that it's a crazy thought, and that travesty is probably the right word...I'm with you on the OAC Midwest... it's just not a conference that gets 2 teams in, even in these extreme circumstances.  The situation gets even worse if Oberlin manages to pull off the NCAC AQ, because I think Kenyon is safe now...

I think the loser of the OAC final is out.... obviously so if JCU loses, but when you look what other regions offer in terms of SoS comparison against ONU, it's just not close.... Of all currently regionally ranked teams, ONU's SoS ranks 61st of 62, with one ranked win... As good as they are, I don't think that's a recipe for a pool C.  As much as they pass the eye test, I think they have to win Saturday.

Quote from: Domino1195 on October 31, 2016, 02:01:23 PM
Heidelberg and Marietta about to get underway.  Interesting - Heidelberg's keeper - Kress - has two red cards this season and I thought he was going to sit out the balance of the year.  I believe a player receiving a 3rd RC in a year misses the entire next year.

The pertinent section of the NCAA laws of the game Domino:

12.7 Ejections and Player Suspensions
12.7.1 A player(s), coach or bench personnel ejected from a game cannot
participate in the next regularly scheduled game, including postseason
games, or, if the offense occurs in the final game of the season, in the first
scheduled game of the next season. If the ejected individual(s) is a player
of record in the game at the time of the ejection, the player, who cannot
be replaced, shall leave the game and his/her team shall play short. Each
successive red card shall result in an additional one-game suspension. For
example, a second red card shall result in a two-game suspension, a third red
card shall result in a three-game suspension, etc.

Marietta scores in the 13th minute and holds on to beat ONU 1-0... just now went final.  Shots were only 17-11 in ONU favor. 3 uncharacteristic yellows for ONU, probably frustration fouls as they saw their undefeated regular season slipping away.

Wow.

2 things... the goal was conceded on a restart - long throw in.... and the game was at Etta on the grass.

ONU won't have a pool C shot now.... big battle coming up in the OAC tournament for that AQ!

Quote from: Domino1195 on October 20, 2016, 02:58:58 PM
I've seen some incredibly poor decisions by goalkeepers this year - excessively agressive not only leaving the 6 but the 18.  Add today's debacle by Thomas More with 6 minutes to go - 1-0 Grove City.

And an audible groan can be heard coming from Bexley and Gambier!

Quote from: Flying Weasel on October 20, 2016, 01:06:32 PM
Rose-Hulman may be ahead of Capital if they win out, but would it get them in the rankings?  And high enough to be selected for an at-large berth?  I'm not seeing a Pool C berth in Rose-Hulman's future with that moderate SOS and 5 losses already.  Capital has little chance at an at-large berth regardless of Rose-Hulman.

Agreed on both counts.  Neither has a path to a pool C at this point.  I think Domino's point was that Rose could be farther up the list, albeit both well on the outside looking in.  I don't want to speak for him, but that particular comparison, for me, once again illustrates the occasional (regular?) silliness that comes with the system. 

I don't have a better proposal, it's clear that something has to account for making sure that say, 2016 Morrisville State... is not deemed more deserving than say... 2016 Babson.

To the point NCAC NE is making regarding Kenyon and their "on-paper" upgrade between 2015 and 2016 non conference schedule... indeed, it's pretty striking that they could end up with a lower SoS this year.

I did the same quick calculation I did earlier when comparing ONU and CAP's non conference schedule making...

For 2016 - Kenyon scheduled non conference teams with a combined w% over the prior 4 seasons at .565.... in 2015, that figure was .475.  Huge upgrade, and they have to play conference games in the NCAC.

So for the stuff a coach can control with non conference schedule - which NCAC NE recalls the crowd was more than willing to point out to him last year re: Kenyon... we can make the following comparison:

EXPECTED strength of Non-Conference schedule, based on opp combined w% 4 prior seasons:
Capital 2016 - .588
Kenyon 2016 - .565
Kenyon 2015 - .475 (widely panned, and punished in regional rankings for low ACTUAL SoS, yet turns out they really were pretty good  )
ONU 2016 - .445!!!

That is what strikes me the most, how remarkably fortunate ONU is to have a current SoS at .545 despite having given a blemish to all of their opponents... and how remarkably unfortunate Capital is to be sitting at .500... compared to what each could have expected looking at the schedule in August, when both have to play the same OAC slate.

Quote from: Domino1195 on October 20, 2016, 11:50:20 AM

Quote from: DonkeyTouch on October 20, 2016, 10:25:04 AM

Quote from: Domino1195 on October 19, 2016, 09:39:17 PM

Quote from: DonkeyTouch on October 19, 2016, 05:29:05 PM
And Great Lakes fans were upset in 14 when JCU was left on the sidelines...

We could legitimately see a 2 loss CAP team, with those losses coming to Calvin and let's say ONU in the OAC tournament - with no dance card.  This week's games, both away, could help a little... but Marietta has another couple losses in them and I would not so boldly predict will end up a .500 team. JCU won't be an easy out... and beating them isn't much of a prize given the tanked non conference schedule.  Home wins over Heidelberg and BW down the stretch don't impress the algorithm either.

Yeah, the NCAC teams will kick the hell out of each others' records the next couple weeks, but CAP would still be looking up at at least 2-3 NCAC schools, Hanover, Case, etc...  Ouch.

Honestly, I can't really blame Yost for a cupcake schedule either.  When you are willing to put OWU, TMore, Denison, Hope and Calvin on your out of conference slate - historically you certainly wouldn't expect to be quite so brutally punished for weak SoS. 

Look at ONU's non-conference games, and tell me, coming into the season, which staff were "braver" schedule makers.

Personally, I'll be pulling for the Crusaders to win the OAC tourney and we can see two OAC schools get in for once.

Cupcake . . .  ONU's  preseason wins - 3 teams (DIII) with a winning record, Capital - 3 teams with a winning record. ONU playing two more preseason games. As far as what the "potential" preseason scheduled appeared to be - did Capital really schedule "cupcakes?" Undefeated on the road - no goals conceded (forgot the debacle at Muskingum last week - my bad). Not easy to do. But we understand SOS -  Kenyon had to deal with this issue last year.

OWU losing tonight does not help - but everyone in the running must win the next game in front of them - not a thing anyone can do about SOS now.

Domino - I think we actually agree on this, but perhaps my paragraph was poorly worded. Cupcake is certainly a bit of a buzz word and probably disrespectful to the historically sub .500 teams I was referring to.

However, I was actually trying to praise Capital for scheduling an out of conference slate, that I feel, in "most" years - would have given them an opportunity for a pretty admirable SoS, or at least an above average one in the Great Lakes region... instead of what they are currently suffering from.  In other words, NO, Yost didn't schedule cupcakes - and good for him.

I was trying to compare that "bravery" in schedule making against what I felt was a much "softer" EXPECTED schedule for ONU.  But, when I wrote that post, I hadn't really dug into that feeling, I was just looking at those two programs' 2016 non-conference schedules, relatively speaking, and expressing what I thought from a quick overview.

So I actually dug into it a little.

Coaching staff cannot control SoS in the moment.  I obviously agree with that.  There is no accounting for under-performance of a typically solid program that, in most years, should you A) have the stones to schedule them, and B) beat them...would qualify as a quality win.  Same thing with programs that usually struggle having a resurgent season.  Obviously at the DIII level geography and budgets play an enormous role in schedule making as well - another uncontrollable factor.  Additionally, the best OAC schools (and the best HCAC schools, and TMore, and Behrend) also cannot control the fact that the bottom half of their own conference, historically, don't win many games.  Still have to play them. 

What's left that you can control?  Setting a non conference schedule where you can reasonably expect to play teams that will boost your SoS if you are good enough to get wins.

Here's a comparison of PAST RESULTS of the non conference opponents of two Great Lakes Region teams that have had a pretty strong season thus far:

Team A, 2016 opponents results over prior 4 seasons:
Combined record: 378-255-65 = .588 W%
Number NCAA Appearances: 12
Number of teams with 0 winning seasons ("cupcakes"): 2
Number of "perennial NCAA tournament programs": 3
Number of years opponents had a combined W% over .500: All 4
Number of times opponents won 5 games or less in any individual season: 8

Team B, 2016 opponents results over prior 4 seasons:
Combined record: 311-395-70 = .445 W% (not a typo)
Number NCAA Appearances: 5
Number of teams with 0 winning seasons ("cupcakes"): 4 (almost 5)
Number of "perennial NCAA tournament programs": 1
Number of years opponents had a combined W% over .500: 0
Number of times opponents won 5 games or less in any individual season: 16

When the coaching staff for team A makes that schedule, they have a reasonable expectation of a non conference boost to SoS.  Not so for team B.

Can you guess who is who yet?

All good.  I misunderstood the comment about Capital's schedule - sorry! "On paper" - preseason - I thought 6-3 would have been an outstanding record - especially since they were 2-7 in the 2015 preseason.  NCAC - wasn't Kenyon something like 8th in the first regional rankings last year?  And Kenyon was top 5 in the NSCAA polls at the time.


Removing teams with strong SOS but with losing records I came up with this list of candidates - sorted by SOS.  As NCAC has been commenting about this in the National thread - SOS IS the deciding variable for rankings (bolded teams ranked).  Interesting for Rose-Hulman - if they win out - with Mt St Joe and Hanover yet to play - they would easily be ranked ahead of teams like Capital.

Institution	win-loss pct	win-loss record	In-Division SOS (weighted OWP-OOWP)	Overall WL Pct
Oberlin	( 0.821)	11-2-1	0.561	11-2-1 ( 0.821)
DePauw	( 0.708)	8-3-1	0.56	8-3-2 ( 0.692)
Ohio Wesleyan	( 0.731)	8-2-3	0.553	8-2-3 ( 0.731)
Ohio Northern	( 0.900)	12-0-3	0.545	13-0-3 ( 0.906)
Hanover	( 0.769)	10-3-0	0.543	11-3-0 ( 0.786)
Rose-Hulman	( 0.643)	9-5-0	0.54	9-5-0 ( 0.643)
Wabash	( 0.643)	8-4-2	0.54	8-4-2 ( 0.643)
Carnegie Mellon	( 0.769)	9-2-2	0.531	9-2-2 ( 0.769)
Kenyon	( 0.846)	11-2-0	0.528	11-2-0 ( 0.846)
Grove City	( 0.750)	10-3-1	0.502	11-3-1 ( 0.767)
Capital	( 0.857)	11-1-2	0.5	11-1-2 ( 0.857)
Geneva	( 0.750)	10-3-1	0.494	10-3-1 ( 0.750)
Transylvania	( 0.731)	8-2-3	0.493	8-2-3 ( 0.731)
Penn St.-Behrend	( 0.844)	12-1-3	0.47	12-1-3 ( 0.844)
Medaille	( 0.714)	9-3-2	0.458	9-3-2 ( 0.714)
Franciscan	( 0.700)	10-4-1	0.405	10-4-1 ( 0.700)

Re: Rose-Hulman.... right.  Which is stupid.  Thus my hope for the Crusaders to get the AQ and a bit of justice to "Cap" off what has already been a fine season.

Quote from: Domino1195 on October 19, 2016, 09:39:17 PM

Quote from: DonkeyTouch on October 19, 2016, 05:29:05 PM
And Great Lakes fans were upset in 14 when JCU was left on the sidelines...

We could legitimately see a 2 loss CAP team, with those losses coming to Calvin and let's say ONU in the OAC tournament - with no dance card.  This week's games, both away, could help a little... but Marietta has another couple losses in them and I would not so boldly predict will end up a .500 team. JCU won't be an easy out... and beating them isn't much of a prize given the tanked non conference schedule.  Home wins over Heidelberg and BW down the stretch don't impress the algorithm either.

Yeah, the NCAC teams will kick the hell out of each others' records the next couple weeks, but CAP would still be looking up at at least 2-3 NCAC schools, Hanover, Case, etc...  Ouch.

Honestly, I can't really blame Yost for a cupcake schedule either.  When you are willing to put OWU, TMore, Denison, Hope and Calvin on your out of conference slate - historically you certainly wouldn't expect to be quite so brutally punished for weak SoS. 

Look at ONU's non-conference games, and tell me, coming into the season, which staff were "braver" schedule makers.

Personally, I'll be pulling for the Crusaders to win the OAC tourney and we can see two OAC schools get in for once.

Cupcake . . .  ONU's  preseason wins - 3 teams (DIII) with a winning record, Capital - 3 teams with a winning record. ONU playing two more preseason games. As far as what the "potential" preseason scheduled appeared to be - did Capital really schedule "cupcakes?" Undefeated on the road - no goals conceded (forgot the debacle at Muskingum last week - my bad). Not easy to do. But we understand SOS -  Kenyon had to deal with this issue last year.

OWU losing tonight does not help - but everyone in the running must win the next game in front of them - not a thing anyone can do about SOS now.

Domino - I think we actually agree on this, but perhaps my paragraph was poorly worded. Cupcake is certainly a bit of a buzz word and probably disrespectful to the historically sub .500 teams I was referring to.

However, I was actually trying to praise Capital for scheduling an out of conference slate, that I feel, in "most" years - would have given them an opportunity for a pretty admirable SoS, or at least an above average one in the Great Lakes region... instead of what they are currently suffering from.  In other words, NO, Yost didn't schedule cupcakes - and good for him.

I was trying to compare that "bravery" in schedule making against what I felt was a much "softer" EXPECTED schedule for ONU.  But, when I wrote that post, I hadn't really dug into that feeling, I was just looking at those two programs' 2016 non-conference schedules, relatively speaking, and expressing what I thought from a quick overview.

So I actually dug into it a little.

Coaching staff cannot control SoS in the moment.  I obviously agree with that.  There is no accounting for under-performance of a typically solid program that, in most years, should you A) have the stones to schedule them, and B) beat them...would qualify as a quality win.  Same thing with programs that usually struggle having a resurgent season.  Obviously at the DIII level geography and budgets play an enormous role in schedule making as well - another uncontrollable factor.  Additionally, the best OAC schools (and the best HCAC schools, and TMore, and Behrend) also cannot control the fact that the bottom half of their own conference, historically, don't win many games.  Still have to play them. 

What's left that you can control?  Setting a non conference schedule where you can reasonably expect to play teams that will boost your SoS if you are good enough to get wins.

Here's a comparison of PAST RESULTS of the non conference opponents of two Great Lakes Region teams that have had a pretty strong season thus far:

Team A, 2016 opponents results over prior 4 seasons:
Combined record: 378-255-65 = .588 W%
Number NCAA Appearances: 12
Number of teams with 0 winning seasons ("cupcakes"): 2
Number of "perennial NCAA tournament programs": 3
Number of years opponents had a combined W% over .500: All 4
Number of times opponents won 5 games or less in any individual season: 8

Team B, 2016 opponents results over prior 4 seasons:
Combined record: 311-395-70 = .445 W% (not a typo)
Number NCAA Appearances: 5
Number of teams with 0 winning seasons ("cupcakes"): 4 (almost 5)
Number of "perennial NCAA tournament programs": 1
Number of years opponents had a combined W% over .500: 0
Number of times opponents won 5 games or less in any individual season: 16

When the coaching staff for team A makes that schedule, they have a reasonable expectation of a non conference boost to SoS.  Not so for team B.

Can you guess who is who yet?

And Great Lakes fans were upset in 14 when JCU was left on the sidelines...

We could legitimately see a 2 loss CAP team, with those losses coming to Calvin and let's say ONU in the OAC tournament - with no dance card.  This week's games, both away, could help a little... but Marietta has another couple losses in them and I would not so boldly predict will end up a .500 team. JCU won't be an easy out... and beating them isn't much of a prize given the tanked non conference schedule.  Home wins over Heidelberg and BW down the stretch don't impress the algorithm either.

Yeah, the NCAC teams will kick the hell out of each others' records the next couple weeks, but CAP would still be looking up at at least 2-3 NCAC schools, Hanover, Case, etc...  Ouch.

Honestly, I can't really blame Yost for a cupcake schedule either.  When you are willing to put OWU, TMore, Denison, Hope and Calvin on your out of conference slate - historically you certainly wouldn't expect to be quite so brutally punished for weak SoS. 

Look at ONU's non-conference games, and tell me, coming into the season, which staff were "braver" schedule makers.

Personally, I'll be pulling for the Crusaders to win the OAC tourney and we can see two OAC schools get in for once.

Quote from: Domino1195 on October 09, 2016, 09:51:27 AM
ONU - Capital was non stop, up and down the field play. No one sat in here! ONU's team defense is to be admired - they must have won 90% of the "second balls" that coaches scream for kids to get. Their experience - the size of their seniors and juniors is as large as Capital's entire roster - and talent makes them a final 4 candidate IMO.

Capital couldn't stay with their runners - ONU's attacker players are constantly - constantly - in motion.  They are fast, have great touch, go to the ball hard - very few flaws. Their first goal comes of Kinkopf beating his defender and send a ball on the ground from the byline to an unmarked runner.  Second goal from a mistake in judgment and a missed tackle, leaving the field wide open for Kinkopf's breakaway.

Capital can be admired for fighting back twice after falling behind.  Not their cleanest game, technically - played very direct most of the night - but when they stayed wide they were able to get with 18 yards of goal for crossing opportunities. While not able to get many quality shots on goal from the run of play, the corners and throw-ins earned provided the two goal scoring plays. Only 5 Capital players have started every game - and 6 freshman have played or started in every game.  Hopefully their game experience will prove valuable down the stretch.

Not sure how much the draw affects either team - but Oberlin keeps on a rollin'.  Great match-up this week as they host Kenyon.  I need to get with the commissioners of the NCAC and OAC and have them schedule around my ability to get to games!  ONU has Berg away and JCU at home - Berg played Kenyon tough at home and ONU doesn't prefer grass - we'll see which Berg team shows up - and if they can avoid self-destructive errors.  CMU has a crazy schedule - at Rochester Friday and then down to Atlanta on Sunday.  Emory beats undefeated Wash U this weekend, Rochester very strong - will be a difficult week for them. Capital has a relatively light week - but young players, after an emotional game - are prone to let-downs. Hanover at 10-2 - losses only to OWU and DePauw by one goal - as a tricky away game at Transy - but they should move up in this week's rankings. Crove City bounces back after back-to-back losses and Geneva continues to play well.  PSU-Behrand had a disappointing tie yesterday and they have 3 games this week.

Tuesday's rankings: Oberlin, ONU, CMU, Capital, Kenyon, Hanover, OWU, PSU-B, GCC and Geneva.

Lived up to the billing and was certainly an entertaining contest.  Domino I think much of your praise of ONU in this one is well founded,  agreed that their off ball movement both in terms of consistently doing it - and it being creative and dangerous, is to be envied.  Balls played back from the endline on the ground to near post or mid frame runners have been a staple of their attacking style for quite a while now, and while I think the word is out and teams know it's coming - it's still very hard to defend.  Kinkopf looked the part of a top tier forward on the opening assist, and on the calm touch and finish for the second. 

Team defending IN THE RUN OF PLAY I agree was also a real strong point.  They just don't make mistakes.  Then again, ONU has been accused of being too "low pressure" in the past, particularly in the 2012 runner-up run, preferring to defend patiently, attempt to force play where it is advantageous for them, and considering actual tackling a bit of necessary evil.  I think this years' group has actually struck a better balance.  That mindset is still there (thus the low foul count), but I see this group having a bit more bite, and again, as you mentioned they are ferocious in transition play.  I'm stunned to see a top 5 ranked program consistently subbing a center back each half, and yet not having much of a drop off, if any - which speaks to the experience and depth you noted.

However, two things stood out as areas of concern in this one if you are making the case for ONU to make a deep NCAA run - and I can't agree that there was a final four contender on the field Saturday night in Bexley.

First off - the set piece defending was as awful as the open play defending was superb.  Embarrassing is a word that comes to mind.  Maybe this was just a bad night, but I have a feeling it's a weakness we will see again.  I thought a highly touted (rightly) GK was exposed pretty badly on an inability to command his 18 in traffic and judge balls in the air, and that his confidence in doing so was rattled by what ONU clearly felt was some over-assertive contact early in the match.  I say "what ONU clearly felt" because they were all over the official about contact against the GK - and that consistent "referee manipulation", in my opinion, preserved the result for them.  Again, IMHO only - but CAP's goal that was called back shortly after pulling level in the second half for contact on McNeil was a bail out call.  No foul there.  I went back and watched it.  Is it a call that's often given, yes.  Was it wrong, yes.  2-1 CAP at that moment at home?  I think they seal the deal.

Now, credit to CAP for possessing a consistently dangerous long throw, and I was even more impressed with the quality of service from dead balls by Pulliam... wow can that kid play a dangerous set piece.  But ONU's restart defending was consistently poor all night - not just when they conceded.  Where CAP failed to gain many quality looks in open play - their worst restarts still looked like uncertain moments for the Polar Bears.

Second, I was really stunned at how often ONU played short and tried to build, and then lost possession before crossing midfield.  I lost count how often this happened.  Caveat - I think Northern is as good as any team in the country at getting a center back in possession at midfield to play a penetrating pass forward.  It's where they are most dangerous, and where they are most confident.  The teams that sit in and let them walk it up might as well not leave the locker room, because they are good enough and creative enough to break you down a couple times playing 9 or 10v11 in half a field.... the problem was it just wasn't working Saturday.

Again, credit to CAP, because I feel they got the prescription for pressuring the ONU build just right, and tactically it was what kept them in the game.  Most of CAP's best opportunities came from winning the ball high up the pitch and having even numbers or 3v4 looks while running forward at pace.  Only problem for CAP is that they weren't very clinical at all with those opportunities - I think they have plenty of good solid attacking players, and they are spoiled with pace... but if you are playing a team with a true 1v1 attacking stud who can finish, and concede possession that sloppily without adjusting for 90 minutes, you are going to get punished.

My feeling? Far too many teams in at the NCAA D3 tournament level capable of keeping it close with this group - in the kind of game that will be decided on a restart.  If Saturday's restart defending is any indication, I'm betting on the other guys in one of those contests.

For tomorrow - I'm with you on most of the rankings... but ONU stays ahead of Oberlin for another week.  Talk to me after a win or draw w/Kenyon.

Quote from: Domino1195 on October 06, 2016, 04:11:06 PM

Quote from: DonkeyTouch on October 06, 2016, 10:40:55 AM
If anyone had told me that a Saturday night October showdown between nationally ranked and top 3 in the region teams in the Great Lakes this fall would feature two OAC schools as opposed to two NCAC schools... I would have laughed in their face.

Best of luck to both sides Saturday in Bexley.  Hopefully the on field product is as fun as it looks on paper.

Indeed. In addition to your observations - the two starting goalkeepers are ranked #1 and #4 in the country - save percent; #1 and #3 GAA.  After Capital's opening game loss - 4-1 to Calvin - a number of line-up changes were made, roster turnover has occurred - and they have won 10 straight, 8 by shut-out. Each team has only given up 1 goal in their last 6 games - ONU 3 straight shut-outs, Capital with 5.

These teams play great team defense - number of shots on goal a testament to that: Cap's starting keeper has allowed one goal, 29 shots on goal in 9 games - slightly over 3 shots on goal per game; ONU's keeper - who has played every game - has allowed 4 goals, 41 total shots on goal in 13 games, again just slightly over 3 shots on goal per game.

One of the biggest differences - other than goals scored - ONU second in the nation with 47 - is fouls and cards:  ONU has ALWAYS been  at the bottom of conference play in total fouls committed and cards received.  To play hard, not commit fouls AND have a winning record like they do is truly to be admired.  ONU tied for 13th in the nation in lowest number of fouls committed - 75, 7 yellows, 0 red.  Capital has committed almost 50 more fouls in two fewer games - 122, 11 yellow, 0 red.  Capital can be careless with fouls 30 yards and close to goal - this game may very well likely be decided on a set piece

ONU's three road games have been interesting - two 2-1 wins and the 0-0 game at OWU. The two wins came against not highly rated teams - and 2 of the four goals conceded came in those games (the Wittenberg goal was an OG). Their fouls per game are higher on the road than at home also.

Saturday is Homecoming and if Capital gets any increase in attendance that could provide an emotional lift to them.

Great points.  I wonder if any of you Columbus guys know the details on Yost's Goalkeeper tryouts those first 3 games.  Niswonger and the other Junior split time last year - but we haven't really seen the other guy since giving up 4 on 7 SOG to Calvin.  I wonder is Niswonger the real thing or is he benefiting from good defending and a weakish schedule?

As far as playing away from home for ONU - that's an interesting point.  I'll go one step further... were they a little off form at Anderson and at OWU because they were playing on grass?  That facility they put in up there really suits them and the style they want to play.  No football lines, and a full 120x72... really, really, really tough place for a visiting time intent on parking the bus to do so.  Playing in tighter venues while traveling probably contributes to the slightly higher foul rate as well.

Sucks for both teams that the remainder of the OAC currently sits at a combined 33-46-10... I mean oof. 

One would have to predict that one of these two teams gets the OAC AQ, so if the rest of the season plays out "to plan" for both teams, barring the results against each other, I think ONU has a safer grasp on an at-large than does CAP... without a current loss and with the win over Oberlin.  But either way, I think it's safe to call Saturday night the "OAC tournament - pool C version".

What if something crazy happens and a 6-7 loss John Carroll snuck through the tournament?  No way the OAC gets 3 teams in, right? 

If anyone had told me that a Saturday night October showdown between nationally ranked and top 3 in the region teams in the Great Lakes this fall would feature two OAC schools as opposed to two NCAC schools... I would have laughed in their face.

Best of luck to both sides Saturday in Bexley.  Hopefully the on field product is as fun as it looks on paper.