Tufts 2-1 Hamilton in 2OT: Wood gets one for Hamilton, but Tufts gets one back quickly. Hamilton tires in OT and Tufts wins it.

Bowdoin 1-0 Midd: This is a total coin flip. I go Bowdoin because I think they've been able to create a good number of chances this year (including on the Tufts turf a week and a half ago), they just struggle to finish them. After how many chances they blew last week, someone finally steps up a buries one this week. They proceed to shell out for the rest of the game and barely survive.

Time for some hot takes to be called out! Back at the beginning of the season, some serious predictions were made with lots on the line for everyone involved... and now we finally get to see how everyone did!

Quote from: cac.aholic1 on September 06, 2017, 08:54:22 PM
Group 1: The Favourite
Tufts

Group 2: The Contenders
Amherst
Bowdoin

Group 3: The Question Marks
Hamilton
Williams
Middlebury

Group 4: One of These Teams Won't Make Playoffs
Trinity
Welseyan
Conn

Group 5: Relegation Candidates
Bates
Colby

I did pretty well, if I do say so myself. Though I also took the easy way out and predicted by group instead of by number. Breaking it down:

• Nailed the top 3
• Got group 4 almost totally correct, only leaving out Conn (admittedly the best team in the group)
• Really underestimated Conn, who were definitely the biggest surprise for me this year. Team showed a lot of fight and hustle, got solid depth play all around, and picked up a real asset in goal. Imagine if that Pat Devlin kid was still around.
• actually, two of group 4 missed the playoffs. I really overestimated Wesleyan, who have been a real disappointment the last couple years. I still maintain they have enough going forward, and it's usually a good bet that Wheeler's team will be better than the sum of it's parts. That wasn't the case this year. Trinity was just bad, which isn't that surprising. Normally they show up for 3-4 games to sneak into playoffs, and they just didn't do that.
• Group 5 a bit off. My analysis of Colby was pretty good - defensively solid, tough to beat in waterville, but still not quite there in terms of making playoffs. That said, they were definitely better than I expected, and really screwed themselves out of a NESCAC bid. Bates was a surprise, as they managed to be okay defensively and surprisingly competent offensively. Merchant was really impressive - I would guess he put in a lot of work in the offseason, and is reaping the rewards now.

Quote from: Mr.Right on September 07, 2017, 11:55:08 AM
Mr. Right:

1. Bowdoin
2. Tufts
3. Amherst
4. Williams
5. Wesleyan
6. Hamilton
7. Midd
8. Trinity
9. Conn
10. Colby
11. Bates

Mr. Right missed on Bowdoin (though only by about 3 inches when they hit the bar in OT on Tuesday), nailed Tufts and Amherst, and like me overestimated Wesleyan and Trinity while underestimating Conn and Colby. We actually had very similar predictions lol. Call it a tie - I think we both did pretty well.

If anyone else made predictions let me know and I'll find them and post with commentary. Did anyone beat top pundits Mr. R and I?

Picks for today:

Williams at Bowdoin: Tough one to call. Both teams have struggled a bit towards the end of the season. Bowdoin is 5-1 at home including the 1-0 win over williams, with the only loss coming to Hamilton. Williams is actually pretty good on the road though, at 5-2-1, but none of those results came against teams as good as the Polar Bears. In this rematch of the only quarterfinal game Bowdoin has played in the last 5 years against a team whose name doesn't rhyme with "Lufts Dumbos", I'd expect a physical, defensive oriented game to start things off. Once Bowdoin settles in though, I think they're good enough to nick one. 1-0 Bowdoin

Hamilton at Amherst: I think before every Amherst game this season, I've thought "Amherst isn't really a better team than their opponent". And after the game, I've thought "wow, Amherst really stole that one". And yet they keep winning games, especially against good teams. Hamilton got a good result in Clinton, but Amherst at home is really tough to beat. They're 8-1 with wins over Bowdoin and Tufts, with the only loss coming to Midd. Hamilton should have revenge for last years finals on their mind, as they'll need everything they have to win this one. But Amherst rolls and wins it 1-0.

Midd @ Conn: Probably the most entertaining matchup of the week. These are fairly unpredictable teams, especially Midd, who seem to only get blown out or win 1-0. Though I haven't seen them play much, I'm starting to get the impression you don't want to concede the first goal to this team, but if you get the first one, they'll fall apart. O'Grady struggled at the start but has reportedly been playing well, and IMHO should be considered one of the best in the conference. Goulart has everything you could want in an attacker - size, pace, dribbling, finishing. The question is about what's around them. Conn, on the other hand, was great at home, winning all 6 of their matches there until this week, when they drew Bowdoin and lost to Wesleyan. I've been impressed with their hustle and physicality across much of their lineup, which they definitely lacked in previous years. Their keeper is also a massive upgrade - 2nd best in the conference behind Van Siclen, who might only edge him out due to experience. However, their center back's are major question marks and were consistently exposed by balls in behind and poor decisions passing out of the back this week. I don't know if Midd is the team that will take advantage of that weakness, but it'll be tough for them to get past the semis. But going back to Midd's pattern of play, I really only need to bet on who scores first. I'll take the 3rd option and say Conn takes it in PKs, with the freshman GK coming up huge.

Bates at Tufts: Is this the year Tufts finally squashes it's NESCAC tournament demons? They avoid drawing their Kryptonite Bowdoin, and I think Shapiro is probably thankful to be playing the Bobcats rather than the Mules. Colby's size, athleticism and ability to sit deep and absorb pressure are the style of play that tend to trouble the Jumbos. Bates definitely has a bit bit more going forward with Opoku and Merchant, but can they keep Tufts off the score sheet? It seems unlikely, especially with no previous tournament experience for Bates. In this NESCAC quarter-final matchup of Tufts with a Maine school whose name begins with a B, Tufts finally gets the win 2-0.



Well, looks like I predicted every favorite to win. Seems unlikely, but this is the NESCAC - anything can happen. 

Quote from: Mr.Right on October 11, 2017, 08:12:01 PM
As far as Bowdoin if you think they finish 2-1-1 against Colby, Hamilton, Conn and Tufts I could not disagree more. Who and how will they score against any 4 of those teams. They are all very stingy on a good day and Bowdoin on a great day will score maybe 1 goal..Like I said Bowdoin and Williams and all of Nescac is so unpredictable this year that we will just have to watch the games to see what happens.

I agree Bowdoin has had trouble creating and scoring since Wercinski took over. But this year I think they're slightly better than in previous years.

Moreover, I think one of the best predictors of NESCAC results is past games between the two teams. IMHO certain matchups due to style of coaching and recruiting tendencies and in some cases psychological factors/rivalries, games from year to year can tend to be very similar in terms of result, or even if the result isn't the same the performances mostly are.

So lets go to the past 3 years' stats to see how Bowdoin did offensively against these teams:

Colby: Struggles, 2-0 win, 0-0 draw, 0-1 loss
Hamilton: Lots of success, 2-1 win, 2-0 win, 3-1 win
Conn: Success, 1-1 draw, 2-1 win, 2-0 win, 2-0 win
Tufts: Mostly successful, 2-1 win, 2-1 win, 0-0 draw, 1-0 win, 2-2 draw

So against these teams in particular (except Colby), the Polar Bears have actually had a pretty great scoring record. In 10 games against Hamilton, Conn, and Tufts, they've been shut out once and scored 21 goals. I know its dumb to blindly base your future predictions on the past, but I do think there's something here.

I actually base my game predictions mostly on this when I see one team dominated the matchup. That's why I'll pick Bowdoin to win or at least draw against Tufts, to win against Conn, but probably to draw or maybe lose to Colby. It almost doesn't even matter what position teams are in the table because they tend to be pretty competitive regardless.

Quicks hit predictions:

Amherst 1-0 Hamilton

Conn 2-1 Bates

Colby 1-2 Wesleyan

Bowdoin 1-0 Trinity

Midd 0-1 tufts

Schneiderman makes a good save on a breakaway for Conn, I think it was Highton in clean due to a Williams miscommunication. Really poor shot, hit it right at Schneiderman who just had to put his hands ups. Should have scored.

Quote from: cac.aholic1 on September 30, 2017, 03:25:36 PM

Quote from: cac.aholic1 on September 30, 2017, 03:16:05 PM
Tuned in just in time to see Wood equalize for Hamilton with 10 minutes left. Free kick from half played down the line to a wide open player, Wes caught sleeping. good ball in, bounce around, knocked down well to Wood who smashes home from inside the 6. Massive goal for Hamilton. Will probably watch this to the finish.

Headed to OT. Freshman Plump for the Continentals looks dangerous, Wesleyan struggle to defend their box every decent serve Hamilton had. Teams will have lots of second chance opportunities against them. However, they are passing well and do a good job of pressing high up the field, pinning Hamilton in their own half pretty well. Even game overall.

Deguines scores the winner less than a minute into OT. Cross into the box, bounces around, and a Hamilton player manages to lay it off nicely to Deguines right in the middle, just outside the box. Sweet first time strike, smooth, technical to the bottom corner.

Quote from: cac.aholic1 on September 30, 2017, 03:16:05 PM
Tuned in just in time to see Wood equalize for Hamilton with 10 minutes left. Free kick from half played down the line to a wide open player, Wes caught sleeping. good ball in, bounce around, knocked down well to Wood who smashes home from inside the 6. Massive goal for Hamilton. Will probably watch this to the finish.

Headed to OT. Freshman Plump for the Continentals looks dangerous, Wesleyan struggle to defend their box every decent serve Hamilton had. Teams will have lots of second chance opportunities against them. However, they are passing well and do a good job of pressing high up the field, pinning Hamilton in their own half pretty well. Even game overall.

Tuned in just in time to see Wood equalize for Hamilton with 10 minutes left. Free kick from half played down the line to a wide open player, Wes caught sleeping. good ball in, bounce around, knocked down well to Wood who smashes home from inside the 6. Massive goal for Hamilton. Will probably watch this to the finish.

Quote from: Mr.Right on September 30, 2017, 01:01:21 PM
2-0 Colby over Midd. Very impressive win for Colby at Midd. Midd was not much of a threat 2nd Half as they just had no creativity in trying to break Colby down. They had no answers against Colby's midfield and could not get the ball to their strikers in the run of play. They had one very dangerous set piece right outside Colby's box that was well taken by Midd's Goulart but a fantastic save by Colby's GK Gibson. As predicted before the season started Midd lost a ton to graduation and are in a bit of a rebuild. Colby finds itself right in the middle of the Nescac table with those 3 points

Huge win for Colby, showing they can both score and win away from home, which I was skeptical of. They've scored two in each of their last 3 NESCAC games, and don't seem to be reliant on any one or two players for goals. Already with 7 points, they should have no trouble making playoffs, and once there it seems like they can compete with anyone. Midd, despite the big win at Amherst, falls to 2-3, which seems about right though they've gotten there in a weird way. Serious cause for concern is them giving up 5 goals in their last 2 NESCAC games and the 2 NESCAC losses on their own carpet.

Predictions for the weekend. Will try to keep it short.

Colby at Midd: Interesting match between interesting teams. Midd beat Amherst, but lost to Conn and was schooled by Bowdoin. Both of Colby's conference losses have been 1-0, they were unlucky not to beat Conn. If Colby can score, they've certainly got a shot. But I think Midd takes it - they've struggled mostly when teams combine well against them, which I think will not be such a problem against Colby. 1-0 Midd.

Wesleyan at Hamilton: Hamilton needs to starting picking up points and winning games or they're gonna be in serious trouble, mostly because they're not living up to my prediction for them. They are only 1-3 in conference, with the only W being v. a bad Trinity team. Not to mention they've yet to play Tufts, Amherst, and Bowdoin. I think that opening Bates loss may really come back to bite them if they're on the playoff bubble. But it's early to talk about that, and they host the game Saturday, meaning the visiting Cardinals will have to make the long drive up to Clinton. The Cardinals have struggled mightily on defense this year, giving up 2 goals per game in 3 NESCAC matches so far, which won't do it for them. On offense, they lit up Bates with 4 goals, but were shut out by Bowdoin and Tufts. Wesleyan can be slightly less worried about their 1-2 conference start as they've already played Bowdoin and Tufts, and got a nice W at Bates. This should be a tough, high-energy match. Both teams must realize this is a big match, and will want to win it. Wesleyan has some quality going forward, and while Hamilton has a decent defense, it is not on the level of Bowdoin and Tufts. Hamilton's question seems to be if they can score after losing two tough 1-0 results in a row. I think it goes to overtime, where anything can happen, but the home field and longer rest help Hamilton out. Not to mention, if they lose tomorrow, then they will need to beat Williams and Colby and take a point off Bowdoin, Amherst, or Tufts to make playoffs (previous 3 years, #8 seed has qualified with 10 points). Doable, but tough. Continentals get it done 2-1 (or 1-0?)

Trinity at Bates: A loss for Trinity and they may as well stop showing up for games and get a couple rounds of golf in while it's still nice out. 0-5 in the NESCAC, with an out of conference loss to Endicott and a out of conference win against Rivier (who?). They've scored only once in conference, and have given up 2 goals in every game but Hamilton. I see no reason for this to change in Lewiston, as the Bobcats have scored 2 twice and 1 once. Bate's Opoku is quick, skilled, and dangerous, and Merchant works hard and is a decent finisher. Trinity lacks the discipline or work to defend those two. 2-0 Bates, who threaten to play cinderella once again.

Conn at Williams: The undefeated Camels head to Williamstown, where the none-too-shabby Ephs have not lost in their last 3 (and in fact have only lost once this year, at Bowdoin). Williams plays its 4th consecutive home game, which seems absurd. They must be getting comfortable there, but it has got to tear up that field. A team has scored more than 1 goal in a Williams game only once this year, in the season opener where they put 2 up on Trinity.  This should be a pretty even game - I think the Williams defense is up to the task of handling Lockwood, though I wouldn't be surprised if Manoogian or maybe Miranda caused a bit of trouble. I think Williams will struggle more with creative attackers and good interplay than big target men this season. On the other end, the Conn defense has had its ups and downs, surrendering 2 to Colby despite shutting out Tufts. My instinct says Williams, though I may be a little biased. 1-0 ephs.

MOTW - Tufts at Amherst: Good spot by Mr. Right on the Amherst field size. I didn't notice it, but wouldn't be surprised by it. I'll try to look closer at the stream for this to see if I can tell, though I haven't noticed in previous games. This one should be quite the match - reminds me of the first Cavs-Warriors game of last season after the Cavs won the title. Amherst will come for revenge at the defending national champions, who whooped them last time around. I think they come out a little too strong for Tufts, who concede in the first half but rally to put two past Serpone's squad. 2-1 Tufts.

To contribute to the D1 v. D3 discussion... I think there are cases where someone that could play D1 opts for D3, but I agree w/ Mr. Right that they are likely rare. I think we can list a decent number of reasons/cases where that might happen, but while acknowledging these cases are rather rather for the most part. Hell, I'll even put a number on it: a rough estimation of what percentage of NESCAC or powerhouse D3 (wheaton, messiah, calvin, Brandeis, etc.) players fall into this

1. Religion (1%)
2. Legacy (1%)
3. Wants to go to the best computer science school possible, not good enough to play at Stanford so looks for MIT, CMU, Cal Tech (1.5%)
4. All the mid or low level at soccer but high level at academics schools have filled their spots with "better" players, and isn't willing to go to a worse school (say UMASS) in order to play D1 (3%, and I'd guess most of the good NESCAC players)
5. Wants to join the coast guard (0.01% haha)
6. Wants to play multiple sports, and I'd wager the most common second sport is lax followed by hockey (2%)
7. Parents are affiliated with D3 school and get cheap tuition (0.2%)
8. Simply cares more about choosing the right school than what division the soccer team is in (1.5%)
9. Would actually prefer D3 to D1 (1%)

Lots of little factors here, but together they add up to a decent number of players that you might say "are D1 caliber" players, but end up choosing D3 schools. My numbers themselves are obviously worthless, but I think you get the idea. Also, lets remember that all of us probably speculating and wildly biased by our own experiences.

Speaking of which, poor defensive series and communication leads to a good chance for mcmillan who hits the upright. ON the ensuing corner, a wide open volley for Amherst.... and a total whiff.

Who is the redheaded midfielder for Williams? Very lively and dangerous.

Amherst trying to apply pressure with long throw ins, but Williams with a couple good chances, looking very dangerous on the counter. Really impressive hustle and commitment to get bodies forward. Certainly should have scored around the 65' minute mark but the Williams player didn't see his comrade wide open in the center, could have rolled it to him for a tap in.

Weekend predictions coming up here. Didn't get mine done in time for tonights game, but I totally had it as 1-0 Tufts 

Midd @ Bowdoin: Both team s coming off 6 pt NESCAC weeks, but Midd got it done with a nice 2-0 win at Keene State while Bowdoin took a tough L 1-0 at St. Joes, keeping questions about their team alive despite plenty of talent. Midd has somewhat dominated this matchup in recent years - I don't think they've lost in the last 4 years (excluding the PK win for Bowdoin in 2014). But I think Bowdoin will fair much better at home than on the Midd carpet, and you've got to think they'll come out hungry and looking to bounce back. For the Panthers, it seems Goulart has been the man going forward with Sass putting up some points as well. I like Goulart's combination of pace, power, and skill, with a good finishing touch. Bowdoin has yet to really figure it out going forward, and seem to have a number of decent options (Ellsworth, Morant, Byrd, Niang on set pieces) rather than a key guy or two. Honestly, sometimes it just looks like nobody has any idea what the strategy is on offense. This should be another good test for them - can they deal with Midd's physicality and pressure to settle the pass down and pass and get things going forward, or do they put in another poor performance like Amherst? With both teams at 2-1 and top 4 ambitions, this should be a good one. I've got a good feeling about Bowdoin, and I think they take it 1-0 on an Ellsworth strike.

Trinity @ Colby: Trinity, led by Savonen, might have the edge talent wise, but in a league like this I'm always going to favor the hungrier team (look at where I predicted Hamilton to finish lol). Colby, despite tough results against Tufts and Williams, has actually looked pretty good, though they've only scored in 1 out of their 3 games so far. I think Aoyama is headed towards a solid season in terms of goals, and I think this team will grow into the year and start to really get results in a couple weeks as they gel more. That said, this game is one of their best chances to get 3 points. I think they get a goal on a set piece, feeling pretty confident on that. But Savonen is a lot to handle for the back line, and if they make a mistake, I think he'll take it. But Trinity only has 2 goals in 4 games against Williams, Hamilton, Tufts, and Endicott. I give Colby the edge at home, where they get it done 1-0.

Bates @ Wes: Wes looked good out of conference before falling to a good Bowdoin team away from home last Saturday. But on their own field with 80 degree weather predicted in Middletown, it'll be an uphill battle for the (Holy ****, 3-0) bobcats. But somehow the Bobcats have scored 8 goals in 3 games (yes, two of those games were against newbury and UNE, but they did net two on Hamilton). Wesleyan has looked great out of conference, scoring multiple times in 3/4 games, but only 2 shutouts out of 5 games played so far isn't a great sign. I think Bates has a real chance here if they pack it in and defend well, and hit on the counter. If they can score two at Hamilton, they can certainly score one at Wes, who are probably weaker at the back but maybe a bit better organized and coached all around. Again, I think Wes has a ton of talent going forward, but can they breach the Bates defense? Bates always seems to have solid keeper, and it's not that easy to score on them packed in. Not to mention I think the Wesleyan defense is weak, and watching the video of the goal they gave up to Bowdoin, the keeper looks very questionable - way out of position on both the cross and the shot. I think Bates snatches an early one on the counter but the Maine boys can't hang in the heat, and fall 2-1 to a Wesleyan comeback.

Hamilton @ Conn: Conn the surprise team of the season are coming off a big 4-0 W over Swat Mid week, but their last NESCAC game was a big warning sign as they gave up 2 goals to Colby and only barely salvaged a draw. Picking up a reportedly solid keeper was huge for them, and Lockwood and Manoogian seem to be able to supply plenty of goals. I need to catch one of their games at some point, cause honestly I'm not really sure what to expect. Hamilton, on the other hand, took a tough 1-0  loss at Midd last week, always a tough place to play. Honestly, this is probably is one of my easier calls. By the nothing-makes sense rule, since:
1. Conn won at Midd
2. Hamilton lost at Midd
Therefore, Hamilton will win at Conn. I call it 2-1 Hamilton in a very open game, lots of chances going both ways. Just what Hamilton needed to get their season back on track.

Amherst at Williams: Get ready for a slugfest. Amherst has looked surprisingly vulnerable so far this year, squeaking out a lucky win v. a flat Bowdoin before falling to Midd at home. This will be Amherst's 3rd game (both in the NESCAC and total) and their first away from home. On the other hand, Williams will be playing their 5th game, 4th in the NESCAC, but FIRST home game. They've played in a lot of close games and managed to get the results until a disappointing 1-0 loss to Bowdoin on a somewhat fluke-y goal. Questionable goalkeeping again with the Williams GK too far to his near post, but not as bad as the Wesleyan keep. It's tough to get a result against Amherst without a confident goalie that can command his box, and even better if he can play a bit of sweeper. Haven't had a chance to watch Wiliams much, so no idea if they've got that. But I think they've got a decently organized team, and I'll disagree a little that the backline is too small to deal with Amherst. The former Lord Jeffs don't have the same massive size advantage they used to. Other than 6'5 fitzgerald, they don't list any people that get PT over 6'2, and I don't think Fitz is nearly as good in the air as Orozco. I'd also guess he's closer to 6'4 than 6'5 after seeing him in person, but it's hard to tell these things. I think Muellers at 6'3 (assuming he's actually 6'3) is more than capable of dealing with him. However, I do have to agree with Mr. Right that I have no idea how Williams would score here, even though I think Amherst are decently vulnerable at the back and Owen is only average, and prone to mistakes, in goal. I think if Williams play well and find a way to threaten in behind or wide, they could actually pass around Amherst pretty well. But Amherst always seems to get these types of games, and I'm not sold on Williams though I'm rooting for them here. 1-0 Amherst.