Field is set...

1 NWU
2 Coe
3 Loras vs 6 Wartburg
4 BV vs 5 Simpson

Might be the most dangerous 5/6 seeds in recent memory.  Simpson is one of the hottest teams in the league and Wartburg has already knocked off Loras twice this year. 

Like I said....bonkers.  Every game has so much weight on it.

That was definitely a shocker to see this morning.  These seeding scenarios are bonkers.  To many tiebreaker scenarios to work though for everyone, but Simpson should be in with a win or Wartburg loss.

1-NWU
2-Loras/Coe
3-Loras/Coe
4-BV
5-UD/Wartburg
6-UD/Wartburg/Simpson

Some very interesting scenarios are about to play out.  NWU has locked the #1 seed.  The way I am seeing it...

Loras and Coe can finish anywhere from the 2-4. 
BV anywhere from 3-5. 
UD anywhere from 3-7. 
Wartburg and Simpson 5-7. 
Luther could maybe squeak in as the 6. 

To many tiebreaker scenarios for me to figure out right now, but I think that should be ballpark seeding possibilities. 

Current Standings
14-0 NWU (at Simpson, Loras)
10-4 Loras (Wartburg, at NWU)
9-5 Coe (UD, at Luther)
8-6 BV (Central, at Simpson)
7-7 UD (at Coe, Wartburg)
5-9 Wartburg (at Loras, at UD)
5-9 Simpson (NWU, BV)
4-11 Luther (BYE, Coe)
2-13 Central (at BV, BYE)

I wouldn't say that the league is worse than anyone thought.  I think the only team not living up to expectations would be Simpson.  BV might be exceeding expectations.  In all, I think this is still one of the most competitive leagues in the country.  Might not see it in the national rankings, but there are several teams that could compete with anyone in the country.  Much like the CCIW, teams just beat up on each other in conference play. There is no doormat.  Central would find themselves in the mix had Moody (12 games) and Spoehr (season) not been injured.

Hard to pick a game of the day on Saturday.  Each has a MAJOR impact on the conference tournament.  NWU, Loras, BV and Coe are the only teams who have qualified to this point. 

BV at Coe (This game went to 2OT with Coe coming out on top, 86-80)
Simpson at Wartburg (Both fighting for their lives to make conference tournament.  Simpson won the first meeting 71-65)
Luther at UD (For the first time in several years, Luther is alive to make a tournament push.  UD won the first meeting 75-69)

Current Standings
13-0 NWU (Central, at Simpson, Loras)
10-4 Loras (BYE, Wartburg, at NWU)
8-5 BV (at Coe, Central, at Simpson)
8-5 Coe (BV, UD, at Luther)
6-7 UD (Luther, at Coe, Wartburg)
5-8 Wartburg (Simpson, at Loras, at UD)
4-9 Simpson (at Wartburg, NWU, BV)
4-10 Luther (at UD, BYE, Coe)
2-12 Central (at NWU, at BV, BYE)

NWU clinched their 4th straight regular season championship after defeating Luther Saturday

Game of the day was in Dubuque as Loras took on Coe.  I didn't know if I was watching a wrestling match, football game, or basketball game.  This had to have been one of the poorest officiated games I've seen in a long time.  I don't know if the officials have gotten a memo to allow more physical play, but the league seems to have certainly gone that direction recently.  Brian Martin was VERY VISIBLY upset following a no-call at the end of the game, camera angle wasn't the greatest, but it looked like there might have been contact with one of the officials. 

Simpson continues to slide.  The preseason #2 pick has gone 3-6 since coming back from Christmas break, and things aren't going to get any easier with games against Coe, at Wartburg, and home with NWU and BV. 

Regional rankings should be coming out soon, will anyone other than NWU find a spot in the west rankings?

Wednesday Games
BV at Wartburg
Loras at UD
Coe at Simpson
Luther at Central

Current Standings
13-0 NWU (Central, at Simpson, Loras)
9-4 Loras (at UD, Wartburg, at NWU)
7-5 BV (at Wartburg, at Coe, Central, at Simpson)
7-5 Coe (at Simpson, BV, UD, at Luther)
6-6 UD (Loras, Luther, at Coe, Wartburg)
5-7 Wartburg (BV, Simpson, at Loras, at UD)
4-8 Simpson (Coe, at Wartburg, NWU, BV)
3-10 Luther (at Central, at UD, Coe)
2-11 Central (Luther, at NWU, at BV)

What computer projections are you using?

Quote from: SpartyBlue on February 05, 2020, 10:53:10 AM
Wednesday Night in the ARC

UD 126 @ Central 327  UD's turn to take the quirky scheduling hit, only second game in 10 days. Sparty must win this on the road and they should.

NWU 8 @ Coe 99  Only a 6 point game in Lincoln due to Coe's three point shooting.  This one won't be that close.

Loras 95  @ BV 67  Huge game here.  Loras beat BV in overtime at home in first game and comes in riding three game wave. BV will be hungry coming off bad loss @ Luther.  I think this one will be very close.  The game at Loras was weird. Duhawks still had Jordan Boyd and won despite taking 25 fewer shots than the Beavers.  Feel like home court advantage will tip this one.

Wartburg 200 @ Luther 281  Can lightning strike twice in Decorah?  Luther at 7-13 has won five of those games at home.  They play with confidence in their gym.  Norse will parlay big upset of Beavers into conference win number four!

Loras actually lost to BV at home in OT. 

Quote from: Titan Q on February 03, 2020, 01:19:12 PM
My latest Pool C projections follow (through Sunday 2/2 games).  All data is courtesy of Matt Snyder -- https://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-regional-rankings.html

First my mock regional rankings...

Atlantic
C - Stevens (AT/MACF): .789/.533/4-3
A - Yeshiva (AT/Skyline): .944/.482/1-0
C - SUNY-Purchase (AT/Skyline): .684/.526/1-1
C – DeSales (AT/MACF): .684/.521/0-4
A – Stockton (AT/NJAC): .650/.520/2-2
C - TCNJ (AT/NJAC): .600/.562/3-4
C – Rutgers Newark (AT/NJAC): .600/.540/2-5
A – Eastern (AT/MACF): .588/.556/2-2

Central
A – UW-Platteville (C/WIAC): .824/.610/3-0
C – Wash U (C/UAA): .833/.553/4-2
C – Elmhurst (C/CCIW): 900/.517/3-2
C – UW-La Crosse (C/WIAC): .842/.521/2-1
A – Benedictine (C/NACC): .842/.505/2-0
A – North Central: .800/.516/3-2
C – Illinois Wesleyan (C/CCIW): .684/.565/2-3
C – Augustana (C/CCIW): .700/.577/1-5
------
C – UW-Stevens Point (C/WIAC): .684/.610/3-3
A – St. Norbert (C/MWC): .842/.550/0-2
C – UW-Oshkosh (C/WIAC): .632/.608/3-5
C – UW-Eau Claire (C/WIAC): .684/.571/1-4

East
A – Brockport (E/SUNYAC): .833/.539/4-2
C – Hobart (E/Liberty): .842/.522/1-2
C – Rochester (E/UAA): .722/.603/1-5
C – SUNY Oneonta (E/SUNYAC): .765/.510/2-1
C – SUNY Potsdam (E/SUNYAC): .824/.496/2-2
C – Oswego State (E/SUNYAC): .778/.514/0-3
A – RPI (E/Liberty): .889/.498/1-1
C – Utica (E/E8): .789/.503/0-2

Great Lakes
A – Mount Union (GL/OAC): .842/.549/5-0
A – Wittenberg (GL/NCAC): .947/.501/2-1
C – Marietta (GL/OAC): .842/.532/3-2
C – Wooster (GL/NCAC): .737/.558/4-2
A – Albion (GL/MIAA): .895/.546/0-2
C – John Carroll (GL/OAC): .684/.525/2-3
C – Wabash (GL/NCAC): .632/.561/1-4
C – Hanover (GL/HCAC): .722/.498/0-1
C – Pitt-Greensburg (GL/AMCC): .800/.459/0-1

Middle Atlantic
A – Swarthmore (MA/CC): 1.000/.566/7-0
C – Johns Hopkins (MA/CC): .895/.517/5-2
A – Christopher Newport (MA/CAC): .810/.553/2-3
A – Widener (MA/MACC): .895/.516/0-1
C – York Pa (MA/CAC): .762/.525/1-4
A – Scranton (MA/LAND): .737/.507/2-1
C – Drew (MA/LAND): .789/.518/2-2
C – Muhlenberg (MA/CC): .737/.510/1-3

Northeast
A – Tufts (NE/NESCAC): .800/.605/5-2
C – Colby (NE/NESCAC): .947/.530/1-1
C – Middlebury (NE/NESCAC): .857/.570/3-2
A – Springfield (NE/NEWMAC): .842/.594/2-3
C – Babson (NE/NEWMAC): .842/.516/4-1
C – WPI (NE/NESCAC): .789/.534/3-3
C – Brandeis (NE/UAA): .778/.548/3-3
A – St. Joseph CT (NE/GNAC): .882/.514/2-1
C – Amherst (NE/NESCAC): .700/.557/3-2
C – Emerson (NE/NEWMAC): .667/.570/1-5
C – Albertus Magnus (NE/GNAC): .778/.506/2-2

South
A – Randolph-Macon (S/ODAC): .950/.515/3-0
A – Emory (S/UAA): .889/.567/3-2
C – Virginia Wesleyan (S/ODAC):  .833/.560/2-1
A – Centre (S/SAA): .900/.517/1-0
C – Texas-Dallas (S/ASC): .737/.549/1-2
A – LeTourneau (S/ASC): .789/.550/3-3
C – Guilford (S/ODAC): .700/.554/1-3
C – East Texas Baptist (S/ASC): .789/.505/1-2

West
A – Nebraska Wesleyan (W/ARC): .900/.563/3-1
C – St. Thomas (W/MIAC): .895/.545/4-2
A – St. John's (W/MIAC): .950/.477/2-1
A – Whitman (W/NWC): .778/.509/1-2
C – Whitworth (W/NWC): .789/.538/2-3
C – Buena Vista (W/ARC): .778/.524/0-2
C – Augsburg (W/MIAC): .737/.520/0-4
C – Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (W/SCIAC): .833/.476/0-1

Curious for your reasoning to place IWU 2 spots ahead of UW-Stevens Point.  Same record, SP with far greater SoS and more wins vs. regionally ranked teams.

I like the breakdown there.  I might even flip Loras and Wartburg. 

BV's at-large took a huge hit, looking like the ARC will be a 1-bid league this year unless someone upsets NWU in the conference tournament (unlikely). 

Luther with the stunner over BV this weekend.  The game was decided at the free throw line.  Both teams with nearly identical stat lines.  11/24 from 3 and both made 28 shots for the game. 

Things have certainly tightened up for seedings. 

11-0 NWU (at Coe, at Luther, Central, at Simpson, Loras)
7-3 Coe (NWU, at Loras, at Simpson, BV, UD, at Luther)
7-4 Loras (at BV, Coe, at UD, Wartburg, at NWU)
6-4 BV (Loras, UD, at Wartburg, at Coe, Central, at Simpson)
5-5 UD (at Central, at BV, Loras, Luther, at Coe, Wartburg)
4-7 Simpson (at Central, Coe, at Wartburg, NWU, BV)
4-7 Wartburg (at Luther, BV, Simpson, at Loras, at UD)
3-8 Luther (Wartburg, NWU, at Central, at UD, Coe)
1-10 Central (UD, Simpson, Luther, at NWU, at BV)

I would agree.  2-6 is going to be battle.  NWU has the #1 seed on lock.  Coe has a tough schedule down the stretch.  NWU at home, then travel to Loras and Simpson, home with BV.

I'm thinking seeds will end
1-NWU
2-BV
3-Coe
4-Loras
5-Simpson
6-UD

A huge 2nd half for Coe.  Trailing by 3 at the half, Coe used a 17-2 run from the 15 - 10 minute mark and held the Knights to just 12 points the remainder of the half.  Coe now sits in sole possession of the 2-seed with NWU coming up next Wednesday.

BV lead NWU at the halfway point, but much like Coe, NWU put the hammer down in the second half and walked away with 97-80 win. Reimers was 11-12 from the field for 26 points and 10 boards, while Schimonitz tallied 19 and 12 assists.

Current Standings
10-0 NWU
7-3 Coe
6-3 BV
6-4 Loras
5-4 UD
4-6 Simpson
3-7 Wartburg
2-8 Luther
1-9 Central

9-0 NWU
6-2 BV
6-3 Coe
5-4 Loras
5-4 UD
3-6 Simpson
3-6 Wartburg
2-7 Luther
1-8 Central

Wednesday
Luther at Simpson
NWU at BV
Loras at Central
Coe at Wartburg

Saturday
Central at Wartburg
BV at Luther
UD at NWU
Simpson at Loras

Clearly the game of the week will be held Wednesday night when NWU travels to BV.