Thanks 2xfaux.  I thought my last post killed this board.   

Williams had some significant grad losses. The National player of the year (center back) and about a dozen goals in a pair of Mid/forwards. But they return their leading scorer and about 40 goals in total.

Chicago lost the most in midfield/playmaker. More the 60 goals return from last year and only one significant loss on a really stingy defense.

TCNJ lost nearly 50% of its offense to graduation. Their defense remains relatively unchanged. But 40 goals is a lot to replace.

Hardin Simmons returns an individual nearly-40 goal scorer and nearly 80% of a high scoring offense. But they took a major hit in the back losing 3 defenders and a defensive mid that only gave up 8 goals on the year and played in nearly every game.

Messiah has a very balanced and minimal grad loss. They lose two defenders who played in every game, and less than 10% of their scoring. With a strong program in place for years now, I'm certain they got a bevy of undergrads ready to plug those minor holes.

Hopkins is second only to Messiah (whom they played to a draw last year early) in suffering the fewest losses of the top 6. They return their leading scorer as a 5th year bonus and their #2 scorer was only a freshman last season. In all they get back 90% of their scoring and lose two defenders.

Look for 4, 5, & 6 to make a run at 1,2,3.

Here in the northeast we've got at least 3 significant D1 job openings - UMass, Fairfield U, and UConn. Are there any successful D3 coaches in the running for these spots?

Any upset predictions for today or Saturday?

My pick is the 1.5 goal underdog Lynchburg over undefeated TCNJ.

Upset pick of first round...

Western CT over Middlebury

Quote from: deiscanton on November 05, 2017, 07:03:27 PM
Starting my mock Pool C picks--

C1-- Chicago (#1 Central)
C2-- Messiah (#1 Mid Atlantic)
C3-- Carnegie Mellon (#1 Great Lakes)
C4-- Johns Hopkins (#2 Mid Atlantic)

Wow. What kind of odds would you have given at the beginning of the season if someone had predicted that all 4 of these ^^^^ teams would need a pool bid to get into the dance. 100-1? 1000-1?

Arcadia knocks off Messiah!

Quote from: deiscanton on November 02, 2017, 02:50:31 PM
As of this afternoon, I have 6 Pool C candidates either locks or safely in, and will most likely be selected on Monday:

1.). Loser of Chicago vs Wash U on Saturday-- Wash U if the game ends in a draw; Chicago if Wash U wins the match.
2.)  Carnegie Mellon (#1 Great Lakes)
3.). Connecticut College (#3 New England)
4.). Middlebury (#4 New England)
5.). Wartburg (#3 North)
6.). St Thomas Minnesota (#4 North)

By my count, 14 Pool C's are still left to be decided depending upon the results of conf tournament and game action this weekend.

I don't think both Conn College and Middlebury will make it. Both suffered upsets in the Conf tourney to unranked Amherst and Hamilton. Tufts on the other hand is in the NESCAC semi's (vs Hamilton). If they make it to the finals look for them to replace one or both of their conference foes.

I think you could add Rowan (#3 in S Atlantic) unless Montclair State manages to beat TCNJ. And add #2 in the Mid Atlantic and #10 overall Johns Hopkins to the Pool C locks if they should lose their conf title match.

Quote from: PlaySimple on October 17, 2017, 02:36:48 PM
I watched quite a bit of the Illinois Wesleyan @ Wheaton stream last night. I don't have a kid at either school but, as a Chicagoan, was watching for the regional interest. This was a big CCIW match with league title implications. Last year Wheaton won in the regular season, 1-0, and IWU won in the CCIW playoffs.

I was surprised at how direct both teams played and really feel that neither will make a long run in the post-season. At the opening kick off, Wheaton just booted the ball down the field into their attacking third. I believe that the ball went out of bounds. This is the type of stuff that is seen in recreational league games. When it was IWU's turn to start, they did the exact same thing! In my mind when a team kicks off that way they are just as well off to kick the ball down the field to other team and say "here, you guys take possession." That stuff rarely works and I'm not sure why a team, at the collegiate level, would do such a thing. The last time ...

Too funny. I've seen multiple D3 college teams do this Rec-move to start the game. I honestly have no idea why. My only guess is that some teams feel they are significantly better at pinning a ball in the opponent's defensive third than they are in possessing/passing it into the same area. To me it just announces "BAD COACHING."

Quote from: 4samuy on October 16, 2017, 04:05:52 PM

Quote from: blue_jays on October 16, 2017, 02:34:28 PM

Quote from: CarpIsNotAFish on October 16, 2017, 01:44:31 PM
Chicago...I'll say this up front, they are deserving of the #1 ranking they currently hold.

But...

They are nowhere near to being unbeatable.

Carp

I get much of what you said referencing Chicago and the elite women's sides.  However,  Massey ratings have chicago as 5th in strength of schedule behind Carnegie #1 and Messiah #2.  I attended the Chicago/Carnegie game this past weekend, which Chicago won 2-0.   Quite frankly it could have been 3 or 4.  Carnegie then went down to St. Louis and beat WashU 1-0.  I was actually impressed with the Carnegie back line.  I know Messiah needed OT to dispatch Carnegie at home, but at this point all we can look at is head to head.  IMHO, Chicago has a structured and disciplined back line and score in many ways and if going thru the UAA doesn't prepare you, I'm not sure what does. By the time the season ends, Chicago will have likely faced 7 or 8 regionally ranked teams.

The Massey SOS ranking is a great example of the point I was struggling to make. Hypothetically, if a team played ONLY teams in its own conference (like Nescac nearly), then you would expect that the strongest team in that conference would NOT have the most difficult SOS - since they don't have to play themselves. That holds true in the NESCAC, Williams has an easier SOS than Tufts, CT College & Hamilton.

In leagues where there are a plethora of out of conference games, this would be mitigated by who the team scheduled to fill up its season. Messiah has the toughest SOS in the Mid Atlantic despite being the best team in the conf because they play Stevens, PacLuth, Hopkins & WSmith in their schedule.

But in the UAA, Chicago's SOS is only 3 spots below the #1 SOS Carnegie and they haven't played a significant opponent outside of the UAA. Heck, conference foe Emory has a SOS 4 spots below Chicago and they played both CNewport and Hopkins before having to face UAA's Chicago & Carnegie, and yet a weaker SOS.

Again, I think the Maroons deserve the #1 spot, but there seems to be some circular logic in how SOS is being calculated in the UAA.

Chicago...I'll say this up front, they are deserving of the #1 ranking they currently hold.

But...

They are nowhere near to being unbeatable. Their record is built on a schedule that lacks a single true top 10 game. They have one coming when they face conference foe Washington (MO), but until then the competition has been pretty thin. They played Pomona-Pitzer to start the season back when the west coasters were in the preseason Top 10. But that ranking turned out to be misguided and Pomona has fallen out of the rankings completely and their only other matches of significance were against Carnegie Mellon and Emory, both currently in the 20's.  Despite their demonstrated willingness to travel far beyond the confines of the western Great Lakes region, they haven't played Messiah, TCNJ, William Smith, Geneseo, Johns Hopkins, etc...all of whom would have been good pre-conference matches for them.

Not condemning Chicago or the AD that handles the scheduling...and again, I believe they deserve their ranking. But I'd be very worried if I were the head coach of Chicago as I enter the NCAA's knowing my squad has not been tested, as compared to a Messiah who played Hopkins, William Smith, Carnegie and Misericordia in the span of less than 2 weeks.

Quote from: cciw83 on October 08, 2017, 04:52:25 PM
I am still trying to figure out if Chicago is that good or Emory just had a very bad day. I stopped watching early in the second half as Chicago had it under control. Chicago midfield controlled the play and Emory either because of the speed of play or talent looked disorganized and had a number of giveaways without pressure.  It was not a surprise of Chicago winning, but the score and type of contest were.

One of standout newcomers for Emory last season #26, a forward, was substituted early in the first half, wonder if she is nursing an injury or coming back from an injury.

I think Chicago is that good. Look at Emory vs ranked opponents - Hopkins, C. Newport & Wash (Mo). All one goal losses, and except Hopkins fairly even stats. Emory couldn't get a single point in 3 games vs teams ranked in the 5-15 spots (depending on whose ranking you are looking at). No one is ranking Chicago in that range. Sure the Maroons haven't been truly tested yet, but they haven't slipped, even a little. So a 4-0 result is quite reasonable for the clear and away #1 team in the nation and a team in the 20-30 slot.

Any surprises must include both TCNJ and Western Ct St.

TCNJ was expected to do well but has exceeded that at 9-0.

Western has an 11-0 season, beat a top 25 team early and gets no recognition from the pollsters.

Add to that 18 of the teams 33 goals have come from Freshman/Sophomore classes, and that Chicago is one of those rare D3's with a worldwide academic notoriety which allows them to continue to recruit the best and you might be seeing the beginning of a long stretch of winning for the Maroons. Streaming tonight at 4 CDT.

Not that early season rankings mean a whole lot, but here's some predicted moves for Tuesdays update on the top 25...

Wash-StL will fall a point or two Despite a win over UW-Whitewater.

Chicago will be the new #1 mowing down every opponent they have faced this year.

TCNJ will move up a point or two with their win over ranked Hopkins in double OT.

General and Christopher N will move into top 10 as Hopkins and Whitewater fall out.

Carnegie, Amherst, & Pomona will fall out. MIT will close in on the T10 and Springfield along with Western CT will get their first T25 rankings of the year.