Quote from: Dr. Acula on December 09, 2024, 10:09:57 PMNo JCU and a Waddle-less Etta next year.  I really hope someone else in the OAC improves quickly because on paper this isn't promising.

We only beat Muskingum by TD late in the game...maybe they're the next to rise.  New stadium often means new recruits and new success follows

To be honest, this should be a coaches dream.  Mount has 2 weeks to prepare and heal and learn and sharpen up before the playoffs.  Their likely first opponent is a familiar one.  They have an opportunity to watch them live, and on film.  They have a chance to correct mistakes from the first meeting.  Meanwhile which ever opponent they face, will be coming off a hard fought first round, then have to begin preparation for this game.  It's a huge advantage.  Meanwhile, all other first round bye teams (not 1 and 2 seeds) they have 2 weeks but so does their opponent.  In some cases, lets says Randolph Macon and W&J where talent is very similar, coaching will play a huge role. 

I think Mount can win this thing, they need to buckle down their defense.  Create some turnovers, and big plays.  Come out swinging...

I'm jacked for this whole tournament

Next Mount will line up against Wheaton and Grove City.  Also an improved O North and BW could be competitive. 

A)  Mount Union will not fire a coach who hasn't lost a conference game in his tenure.  Also, in 5 years, he had Covid year, Stagg Bowl year, Semi final year early out year and this year.  All of that said, he has had success.  Not the same as we're all used to, but success nonetheless.

B)  I'm not a big fan of the likely rematch, but Mount has fared well against conference opponents in the past, and I don't expect anything different.  There were a lot of mistakes in the first game that could be corrected, mostly on defense. 

C)  I think the biggest issues with this team is execution and game plan.  The players and coaches need to stick to their assignments as drawn up.  Then if that is not working, adjustments need to be made.  I think sometimes the correct defense might be called, but missed tackles or missed coverages make it look worse than it is.  So, either simplify the coverage, or change completely it to make it smoother.  An overhaul is not needed, just some more consistency. 

D)  The Otterbein game stands out to me as an anomaly more than this game against Muskingum.  Muskingum has been a solid offense for several years now.  I think Mount was a little to high on the horse and got caught. 

It does seem way more competitive in this years bracket.  I expect LAX to beat Northwestern by a lot, and Endicott will win by 2-3 scores, JCU should win by 2-3 scores.  After those games, and with out projecting any winners, I don't see any obvious blowout games.  Probably the winner of Bethel and Coe will beat Lake Forest by a few scores.  If Berry advances, I don' see them losing by the same margin a 2nd time.  Maybe NCC will put a hurt on who ever comes over from left coast. 

I don't see a clear cut winner for any of the quads. 

These brackets are gonna be tough

Any idea how the pairings go after?  Will the winners of the of the opening rounds be paired against the #1 and #2 ranked teams in each of the quadrants? 

So many questions...LOL

So, when the brackets are created are they going to take the 16 lowest ranked teams by NPI and make them play in round one?  Or will it be subjective to travel restrictions and the like?  I was messing around yesterday and came up with some possible scenarios that have more island teams than normal. 

Linfield beats Whitworth and both make the field. 
Chapman (assumed AQ)
Texas Lutheran
Hardin Simmons

Would they matchup TLU and HSU in the first round to avoid travel?  Or would they bump TLU to next round to avoid travel?  They can make a NWC team play chapman, if the other NWC team is not a top 8, they can't match them up with the winner of that west coast 1st round game...can they? 

I know that a lot of the uncertainty is removed with this new system, because of the instantaneous nature of the math and the elimination of the human factor in choosing teams, but I still feel like I don't know who is going to make it in. 

Is there criteria for the bracketing outside of the top eight teams?

This is it right here.  Except for the BW receiving votes, this is it.

I'm proud of the Mount team for facing some pretty major adversity and still coming out with WIN!!!  Marietta had a great game plan and executed well.  #1 for Marietta dropped nothing all game.  He was tough to defend and really kept his team alive on some drives. 

Marietta -

I think they're a good team and deserve a shot at the playoffs with a win next week.  I think they can do it. 
I think they sold out to stop the run against Mount and it worked for most of the game. 
Their QB is is really good.
Their defensive line is really good.

Mount - 

Echeverry is really good.  He has a burst that into and through the hole that is super fast. 

Mount's O line is really good.  They offered good protection and kept driving all game.  See above note.

FWIW DeShields might throw the ball better the beaudrie.  With the running backs as good as they are, a more pure passer may be what this team needs. 

I have been feeling all along that we are missing some game control passing.  10-15 yard in routes and out routes.  I still think this team is a run first team, but one of the things that has always kept Mount great is the ability to move the chains.  I think hitting a 12 yard pass on 1st down from your own 20, at will, is terrible thing to face as an opposing defense.  It keeps safties out of the box, it makes LB's take a step back.  It opens screens and draws.  It also opens double moves and play action. 

I think that Mount is still an excellent team and is definitely one to measure against.  If Marietta can keep pace with Mount Union, they can keep pace with any team in the nation.  They may not win, but they can compete on the highest level in this division. 

The blocked punt was concerning.  The kickoff coverage was amiss. 

I liked the blizting and the pressure on the QB.  Now just change up the coverage sometimes so the hot read is so apparent.  2 weeks in a row that Roland #28, had a sack.  He's pretty gpod at that.  The timing and the tackling.

K Brown and R Moore are very tough defend.  I woulnd't mind seeing them on the same side of the line at some point.  Just to throw some teams off. 

 

I'd like to see a solid and consistent game plan on saturday.  I really like their two back sets, with both Williams and eche'y back there.  They also have some sets with 2 tightends and 2 rb's.  I like that a lot.
2 back sets run, run run...then draw/screen... then play action deep out/post patterns.  Also, they're probably gonna spy on Beau so he needs to hand off for like the first 5-6 runs, and not pull it.   BUt sell it hard... hand off and then sprint like you have the ball. 

I think they need to force Marietta into selling out to stop the run, and the go over the top with a play action, or turner/cooper down the sideline. 

I agree, I would really love to see Rossy back out there this week and see him and brown and factor light these guys up. I would love a defensive TD. 

I can guarantee that Marietta is going to sell out to win this game.  They have a 5th year QB and some AA on defense.  This is their best shot to match Mount player for player, maybe ever. 

I still like Mount to win big though, 44 - 14

I've been thinking about how good the WIAC really is...

I think LAX losing to GVSU by 7 is the thing that is throwing everything off. I was looking at the D2 website, and Grand Valley is good team in their conference and their division, and the make up of their team includes scholarship players... so the expectation is that they will be bigger faster and stronger than a D3 team.  However, Lacrosse beat Northern Michigan and Alma beat northern Michigan and Oshkosh lost to Michigan tech and Whitewater beat Roosevelt.  I guess what I'm saying is that the close loss to GVSU may not be the resounding achievement that we're all making it to be. 

I can't make sense of it

If Oshkosh wins out they, win the conference and their in... Right?  If they lose one, they're out completely maybe?  Since they'll have 3 losses (one to a D2 school)

If Oshkosh wins out and UWP doesn't, are they out?  Completely with 2 losses? 

If stout wins out and wins the AQ, do they simultaneously eliminate Oshkosh and UWP? 

Are these team rooting for status quo?  IE Mount and JCU to beat Marietta, Whitworth to be linfield, SJU to win the MIAC outright etc... This way they are reducing the amount of 9-1 teams throughout the division?  Thus making it easier for an 8-2 to make it in? 

Ultimately, the most competitive league in the division may end up with 1 team in the playoffs, by NPI rankings, due to some OOC losses and round robin beatings within the conference. 

All that being said, all this hoo ha about putting the WIAC teams in another conference and having be a cake walk is ridiculous.  Member when WW played aurora in the first round of the playoffs a couple years ago?  Aurora is in the NACC.  Just because they are very competitive with each other, doesn't mean they'll roll into the playoffs and advance. 

For the rankings:  You have to take each game in context.  When UMHB beat UWW, they jumped way up from not ranked.  Then they got destroyed by HSU.  HSU needed a whole game to defeat Endicott.  Then UWW beat Oshkosh, who beat Wheaton and Linfield..  It's too many head to heads and you can't just order it by that alone. 

UWP, LAX, UWRF, Oshkosh, Stout... WIAC in general, winning a game in "The" league is considered a signature win.  Whitewater beat Oshkosh, and obliterated JCU.  JCU lost Mount by 7. 

Marietta hasn't done anything to be considered the same as any of the team mentioned. 

I want the OAC back as prominent conference too, but until more postseason/non conference wins, it is undeserved. 

So teams like those in the PAC that could all tie at 9-1, will be looked upon more favorably than say LAX or Whitewater who will have 2 D3 losses at least. 

If the importance of the SoS is reduced and the better records are increased, are we going to see teams like Wheaton, JCU, UWW, UWO, UW Lax, Alma (all assuming they don't win their conf) sitting at home for the playoffs.  While other 9-1 teams go to the playoffs.  If there ends up being a tie at the top of the PAC, at 9-1, do all three teams have a better shot at the playoffs that these teams that finished 8-2?

From the stats it does seem that they really played well.  A lot TFLs and Sacks.  46 rushing attempts with 6.9 ypc.  Only 12 passes. 

That is a recipe for success. 

Also, I would like to think that Marietta should be ranked, but they have a lot of obstacles to overcome and beating 6 unranked teams is not gonna do it.  I'm not sure beating BW will do it either.  They really need to be competitive with Mount like JCU was, and they will need to beat JCU.  IMO

I do think if Etta finishes 9-1, I think that have a very strong shot at the postseason.  If JCU beats Etta, I think both get left home. 

On that note, I think that Bethel, UWW, Wheaton, Trinity-TX, UMHB, are all going to be watching the playoffs this year.  As I understand it, SOS means very little this year and record will rule the day.  Teams like Coe could finish 9-1 with one loss to Wartburg.  Or they could beat Wartburg and potential know them out.  Or Whitworth could be Linfield and give them 2 losses and know them out.  However it shakes out, it's gonna be crazy.

Are the Mount games the only games not available to watch?  I didnt watch this week and I can't find it on OAC.tv