For the most part I agree.  See my rankings here.


The post has everyone's probability based on my model of advancing to each round up to the championship given the probabilities of their opponents making it to play them.


Most likely Final Four is:

Franklin and Marshall

Mary Washington

Chicago

Johns Hopkins

Mary Washington is the favorite to win the Championship, if only because Hopkins has the worst Quadrant.

Quote from: YoungBuck on November 12, 2019, 02:43:40 PM
Tried my hand at some Bracket Analysis using Massey.  Some great potential matchups to look forward to along the way to Greensboro.  Enjoy:

...

Discnerd's top 64


Invariably, some AQs are not on this list and geographic considerations get in the way of others.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Conference
1	Messiah	13.79377	MACC
2	Pomona-Pitzer	9.643365	SCIAC
3	MIT	9.057278	NEWMAC
4	Dickinson	8.611713	CC
5	Randolph-Macon	8.089854	ODAC
6	Arcadia	8.063929	MACC
7	TCNJ	7.746821	NJAC
8	Centre	7.511777	SAA
9	William Smith	7.14224	LL
10	Johns Hopkins	7.115187	CC
11	Christopher Newport	7.045461	CAC
12	Cal Lutheran	6.630379	SCIAC
13	Gettysburg	6.578958	CC
14	Haverford	6.020715	CC
15	Wheaton (Ill.)	5.698542	CCIW
16	Washington U.	5.558154	UAA
17	Tufts	5.280789	NESCAC
18	Salisbury	5.031897	CAC
19	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	4.827498	SCIAC
20	Stevens	4.659533	MACF
21	Chapman	4.656979	SCIAC
22	McDaniel	4.640234	CC
23	Swarthmore	4.547481	CC
24	Washington and Lee	4.449458	ODAC
25	Middlebury	4.026778	NESCAC
26	Virginia Wesleyan	3.96818	ODAC
27	Chicago	3.904208	UAA
28	Amherst	3.846481	NESCAC
29	Emory	3.767356	UAA
30	Geneseo State	3.64551	SUNYAC
31	St. Thomas	3.527784	MIAC
32	Misericordia	3.249596	MACF
33	Case Western Reserve	3.169702	UAA
34	Trinity (Texas)	3.163499	SCAC
35	Otterbein	3.07493	OAC
36	Pacific Lutheran	3.018315	NWC
37	Susquehanna	2.984115	LAND
38	Elizabethtown	2.975267	LAND
39	Williams	2.834563	NESCAC
40	Wartburg	2.796383	ARC
41	Roanoke	2.751019	ODAC
42	Ohio Northern	2.725475	OAC
43	Hardin-Simmons	2.716677	ASC
44	Scranton	2.700049	LAND
45	Franklin and Marshall	2.645889	CC
46	Lynchburg	2.633514	ODAC
47	Bridgewater (Va.)	2.60726	ODAC
48	WPI	2.541602	NEWMAC
49	Muhlenberg	2.512479	CC
50	Rochester	2.484983	UAA
51	Mary Washington	2.4692	CAC
52	RIT	2.382	LL
53	Hamilton	2.361833	NESCAC
54	Stockton	2.323569	NJAC
55	St. Lawrence	2.301917	LL
56	Montclair State	2.283094	NJAC
57	Augsburg	2.270362	MIAC
58	Wesleyan	2.268807	NESCAC
59	Illinois Wesleyan	2.237537	CCIW
60	Capital	2.221798	OAC
61	Carnegie Mellon	2.196927	UAA
62	Occidental	2.170574	SCIAC
63	Connecticut College	2.143517	NESCAC
64	Puget Sound	2.04458	NWC

Not worrying about which teams cause I have too much grading to do.  But here is my top 64 teams.  Invariably, some AQs are ranked below that cutoff and geographic restrictions get in the way of others.  Have fun picking!

Ranking	Team	Rating	Conference
1	Johns Hopkins	7.274983	CC
2	Mary Washington	6.404937	CAC
3	Christopher Newport	6.325505	CAC
4	Franklin and Marshall	6.058318	CC
5	Washington and Lee	5.861226	ODAC
6	Amherst	5.501767	NESCAC
7	Calvin	5.199598	MIAA
8	Tufts	4.758455	NESCAC
9	Oneonta State	4.453158	SUNYAC
10	Messiah	4.320247	MACC
11	Catholic	4.099097	LAND
12	Chicago	3.762664	UAA
13	Oglethorpe	3.74774	SAA
14	Gustavus Adolphus	3.743559	MIAC
15	Montclair State	3.642345	NJAC
16	Roanoke	3.604485	ODAC
17	Connecticut College	3.470335	NESCAC
18	Centre	3.367097	SAA
19	Covenant	3.305011	USAC
20	Kenyon	3.293775	NCAC
21	RPI	3.273092	LL
22	Middlebury	3.271638	NESCAC
23	Luther	3.254263	ARC
24	Ohio Wesleyan	3.177396	NCAC
25	Gettysburg	3.162307	CC
26	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	3.116905	SCIAC
27	Eastern Connecticut	3.067903	LEC
28	Hobart	3.065598	LL
29	Rowan	3.020557	NJAC
30	Haverford	2.991523	CC
31	North Park	2.965349	CCIW
32	Babson	2.905477	NEWMAC
33	Williams	2.82497	NESCAC
34	Texas-Dallas	2.744419	ASC
35	John Carroll	2.74405	OAC
36	Rutgers-Camden	2.738131	NJAC
37	Loras	2.688357	ARC
38	St. Mary's (Md.)	2.687594	CAC
39	Swarthmore	2.626722	CC
40	Ramapo	2.61043	NJAC
41	Dickinson	2.58952	CC
42	Stockton	2.577122	NJAC
43	St. Thomas	2.538851	MIAC
44	Buffalo State	2.520615	SUNYAC
45	Ithaca	2.439258	LL
46	Texas Lutheran	2.403701	SCAC
47	Lynchburg	2.39488	ODAC
48	Brandeis	2.392352	UAA
49	WPI	2.319292	NEWMAC
50	Salisbury	2.306771	CAC
51	Lycoming	2.272534	MACC
52	Muhlenberg	2.220837	CC
53	Colorado College	2.193662	SCAC
54	Hope	2.144634	MIAA
55	Wheaton (Ill.)	2.138748	CCIW
56	Trinity (Texas)	2.120328	SCAC
57	Cortland State	2.118712	SUNYAC
58	Clarkson	2.086891	LL
59	York (Pa.)	2.081022	CAC
60	Hardin-Simmons	2.08095	ASC
61	Otterbein	2.022242	OAC
62	North Carolina Wesleyan	2.005021	USAC
63	Pacific Lutheran	1.965622	NWC
64	TCNJ	1.946055	NJAC

discnerd's top 25

Rank	Rank.diff	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating.diff
1	0	Messiah	MACC	12.47	-0.82
2	1	MIT	NEWMAC	10.01	0.432
3	1	Pomona-Pitzer	SCIAC	9.713	0.333
4	-2	Arcadia	MACC	9.276	-1.409
5	5	Christopher Newport	CAC	7.569	0.474
6	1	William Smith	LL	7.549	0.03
7	1	Centre	SAA	7.519	0.097
8	7	Cal Lutheran	SCIAC	7.383	1.478
9	-4	Haverford	CC	7.15	-0.978
10	-4	Johns Hopkins	CC	7.076	-0.949
11	1	Dickinson	CC	6.942	0.306
12	-3	TCNJ	NJAC	6.795	-0.333
13	1	Wheaton (Ill.)	CCIW	6.18	-0.141
14	7	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	SCIAC	6.174	1.111
15	5	Gettysburg	CC	5.995	0.866
16	-3	Washington U.	UAA	5.781	-0.709
17	-1	Randolph-Macon	ODAC	5.724	0.119
18	-7	Tufts	NESCAC	5.515	-1.164
19	-2	Salisbury	CAC	5.364	-0.026
20	2	Chapman	SCIAC	5.115	0.497
21	2	McDaniel	CC	5.083	0.488
22	-4	Washington and Lee	ODAC	4.83	-0.346
23	-4	Chicago	UAA	4.745	-0.398
24	1	Stevens	MACF	4.219	-0.145
25	1	Otterbein	OAC	4.175	0.223

Discnerd's Top 25

Rank	Rank.diff	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating.diff
1	1	Christopher Newport	CAC	6.497	0.449
2	-1	Amherst	NESCAC	6.321	-0.424
3	1	Calvin	MIAA	5.76	0.063
4	-1	Johns Hopkins	CC	5.625	-0.327
5	4	Oneonta State	SUNYAC	4.761	0.656
6	1	Franklin and Marshall	CC	4.745	0.206
7	1	Tufts	NESCAC	4.335	0.098
8	2	Messiah	MACC	4.068	0.017
9	8	Connecticut College	NESCAC	4.03	0.753
10	1	Oglethorpe	SAA	4.018	0.053
11	-6	Mary Washington	CAC	3.672	-1.947
12	1	Gettysburg	CC	3.641	-0.182
13	1	RPI	LL	3.63	-0.153
14	6	Catholic	LAND	3.609	0.436
15	-3	Covenant	USAC	3.509	-0.378
16	0	Roanoke	ODAC	3.393	-0.308
17	17	Eastern Connecticut	LEC	3.392	0.573
18	-3	Chicago	UAA	3.367	-0.357
19	3	Montclair State	NJAC	3.347	0.212
20	6	Hobart	LL	3.25	0.251
21	25	St. Mary's (Md.)	CAC	3.114	0.618
22	11	Swarthmore	CC	3.088	0.249
23	-2	Ohio Wesleyan	NCAC	3.07	-0.093
24	-6	Buffalo State	SUNYAC	3.018	-0.235
25	-19	Washington and Lee	ODAC	2.99	-2.218

discnerd's top 25

Rank	Rank.diff	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating.diff
1	2	Messiah	MACC	13.29	0.392
2	0	Arcadia	MACC	10.68	-2.252
3	1	MIT	NEWMAC	9.581	-0.822
4	-3	Pomona-Pitzer	SCIAC	9.38	-3.861
5	1	Haverford	CC	8.128	0.133
6	3	Johns Hopkins	CC	8.024	0.556
7	-2	William Smith	LL	7.519	-1.184
8	4	Centre	SAA	7.422	0.595
9	2	TCNJ	NJAC	7.129	-0.154
10	4	Christopher Newport	CAC	7.095	0.726
11	-4	Tufts	NESCAC	6.679	-0.963
12	4	Dickinson	CC	6.636	0.914
13	-5	Washington U.	UAA	6.49	-1.05
14	-4	Wheaton (Ill.)	CCIW	6.32	-1.1
15	17	Cal Lutheran	SCIAC	5.904	2.53
16	4	Randolph-Macon	ODAC	5.604	0.611
17	4	Salisbury	CAC	5.391	0.404
18	0	Washington and Lee	ODAC	5.176	-0.231
19	-4	Chicago	UAA	5.143	-0.786
20	-7	Gettysburg	CC	5.129	-1.627
21	1	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	SCIAC	5.063	0.131
22	3	Chapman	SCIAC	4.618	-0.011
23	1	McDaniel	CC	4.594	-0.208
24	-7	Geneseo State	SUNYAC	4.581	-1.075
25	-2	Stevens	MACF	4.364	-0.455

discnerd's top 25

Rank	Rank.diff	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating.diff
1	0	Amherst	NESCAC	6.745	-0.686
2	1	Christopher Newport	CAC	6.048	0.296
3	1	Johns Hopkins	CC	5.951	0.337
4	-2	Calvin	MIAA	5.697	-0.13
5	2	Mary Washington	CAC	5.618	0.542
6	-1	Washington and Lee	ODAC	5.208	-0.115
7	1	Franklin and Marshall	CC	4.539	-0.338
8	7	Tufts	NESCAC	4.236	0.469
9	1	Oneonta State	SUNYAC	4.105	-0.361
10	4	Messiah	MACC	4.051	0.177
11	0	Oglethorpe	SAA	3.965	-0.197
12	1	Covenant	USAC	3.887	-0.013
13	5	Gettysburg	CC	3.823	0.327
14	8	RPI	LL	3.783	0.429
15	-3	Chicago	UAA	3.724	-0.226
16	-10	Roanoke	ODAC	3.702	-1.584
17	-8	Connecticut College	NESCAC	3.278	-1.373
18	1	Buffalo State	SUNYAC	3.253	-0.176
19	6	Centre	SAA	3.174	0.032
20	-4	Catholic	LAND	3.172	-0.46
21	5	Ohio Wesleyan	NCAC	3.163	0.073
22	12	Montclair State	NJAC	3.135	0.325
23	6	Haverford	CC	3.124	0.16
24	0	Ithaca	LL	3.111	-0.118
25	-4	Middlebury	NESCAC	3.069	-0.321

Discnerd's top 25

Rank	Rank.diff	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating.diff
1	1	Pomona-Pitzer	SCIAC	13.24	1.854
2	-1	Arcadia	MACC	12.94	-0.625
3	1	Messiah	MACC	12.89	2.457
4	5	MIT	NEWMAC	10.4	2.528
5	2	William Smith	LL	8.703	0.769
6	10	Haverford	CC	7.995	2.568
7	8	Tufts	NESCAC	7.643	1.759
8	-3	Washington U.	UAA	7.54	-1.644
9	3	Johns Hopkins	CC	7.469	0.405
10	-2	Wheaton (Ill.)	CCIW	7.42	-0.458
11	-5	TCNJ	NJAC	7.282	-1.648
12	5	Centre	SAA	6.828	1.624
13	-2	Gettysburg	CC	6.756	-0.325
14	-11	Christopher Newport	CAC	6.37	-4.338
15	-1	Chicago	UAA	5.929	-0.365
16	-6	Dickinson	CC	5.722	-1.49
17	1	Geneseo State	SUNYAC	5.656	0.51
18	12	Washington and Lee	ODAC	5.408	2.039
19	15	Middlebury	NESCAC	5.287	2.011
20	-7	Randolph-Macon	ODAC	4.993	-1.472
21	16	Salisbury	CAC	4.987	2.029
22	-2	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	SCIAC	4.932	0.164
23	10	Stevens	MACF	4.819	1.503
24	-1	McDaniel	CC	4.802	0.501
25	-6	Chapman	SCIAC	4.629	-0.447

Discnerd's top 25

Rank	Rank.diff	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating.diff
1	0	Amherst	NESCAC	7.431	0.184
2	0	Calvin	MIAA	5.826	-1.143
3	1	Christopher Newport	CAC	5.752	-0.958
4	-1	Johns Hopkins	CC	5.614	-1.241
5	0	Washington and Lee	ODAC	5.324	-1.163
6	1	Roanoke	ODAC	5.285	0.267
7	-1	Mary Washington	CAC	5.076	-0.614
8	0	Franklin and Marshall	CC	4.878	0.385
9	0	Connecticut College	NESCAC	4.651	0.216
10	18	Oneonta State	SUNYAC	4.466	1.246
11	6	Oglethorpe	SAA	4.163	0.302
12	-1	Chicago	UAA	3.95	-0.232
13	1	Covenant	USAC	3.9	-0.206
14	1	Messiah	MACC	3.874	-0.101
15	8	Tufts	NESCAC	3.768	0.2
16	-3	Catholic	LAND	3.633	-0.49
17	1	Rowan	NJAC	3.531	-0.294
18	-6	Gettysburg	CC	3.496	-0.66
19	21	Buffalo State	SUNYAC	3.43	0.81
20	1	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	SCIAC	3.395	-0.28
21	-11	Middlebury	NESCAC	3.39	-0.866
22	8	RPI	LL	3.354	0.229
23	-3	Gustavus Adolphus	MIAC	3.24	-0.56
24	-8	Ithaca	LL	3.229	-0.732
25	2	Centre	SAA	3.142	-0.271

An arrow between teams means that they have played each other.  In order to make predictions come tournament time, it would be nice if teams were connected by good opponents, just wondering if anyone here was aware of teams from that graph playing each other.

Anyone know if any of the teams in the bottom group play any of the teams in the top group before the postseason?

My best hope is MIT or Tufts, but they only have conference games left.

Discnerd's Top 25 (no blog post yet)

Ranking	Team	Rating	Conference
1	Pomona-Pitzer	13.6779	SCIAC
2	Messiah	12.1952	MACC
3	Christopher Newport	10.4828	CAC
4	Arcadia	10.1628	MACC
5	Gettysburg	9.50914	CC
6	MIT	9.36312	NEWMAC
7	William Smith	8.75069	LL
8	Washington U.	8.7383	UAA
9	Wheaton (Ill.)	8.15961	CCIW
10	TCNJ	7.91765	NJAC
11	Johns Hopkins	7.54119	CC
12	Chicago	6.8022	UAA
13	Tufts	6.3024	NESCAC
14	Centre	6.27511	SAA
15	Dickinson	5.77091	CC
16	Geneseo State	5.76207	SUNYAC
17	Washington and Lee	5.57908	ODAC
18	Haverford	5.40503	CC
19	McDaniel	4.91468	CC
20	Middlebury	4.75055	NESCAC
21	Chapman	4.7442	SCIAC
22	Stevens	4.70425	MACF
23	St. Thomas	4.36933	MIAC
24	Swarthmore	4.15057	CC
25	Randolph-Macon	4.03618	ODAC

Discnerd's top 25 (No blog post yet)

Ranking	Team	Rating	Conference
1	Amherst	8.36372	NESCAC
2	Johns Hopkins	6.43538	CC
3	Tufts	5.77251	NESCAC
4	Mary Washington	5.70079	CAC
5	Calvin	5.56714	MIAA
6	Christopher Newport	5.54331	CAC
7	Washington and Lee	5.41844	ODAC
8	Covenant	5.21568	USAC
9	Roanoke	5.19344	ODAC
10	Franklin and Marshall	4.37823	CC
11	Connecticut College	4.26196	NESCAC
12	Middlebury	4.2084	NESCAC
13	Oneonta State	3.98324	SUNYAC
14	Catholic	3.88338	LAND
15	Gettysburg	3.87416	CC
16	Chicago	3.67177	UAA
17	Ithaca	3.64101	LL
18	Hardin-Simmons	3.58038	ASC
19	Rowan	3.53541	NJAC
20	Oglethorpe	3.5039	SAA
21	Bates	3.46997	NESCAC
22	RPI	3.46353	LL
23	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	3.31492	SCIAC
24	Messiah	3.30124	MACC
25	Ohio Wesleyan	3.18641	NCAC

Discnerd's top 25

Ranking	Team	Rating	Conference
1	Pomona-Pitzer	13.9338	SCIAC
2	Messiah	12.1562	MACC
3	Arcadia	11.8873	MACC
4	Gettysburg	11.1246	CC
5	MIT	8.96565	NEWMAC
6	Wheaton (Ill.)	8.96412	CCIW
7	William Smith	8.8545	LL
8	TCNJ	8.65029	NJAC
9	Johns Hopkins	8.62507	CC
10	Centre	8.18013	SAA
11	Christopher Newport	8.07453	CAC
12	Case Western Reserve	7.29768	UAA
13	Washington U.	7.25937	UAA
14	Chicago	7.22526	UAA
15	Geneseo State	6.42744	SUNYAC
16	Washington and Lee	5.78351	ODAC
17	Middlebury	5.32544	NESCAC
18	Randolph-Macon	5.24855	ODAC
19	Stevens	5.1403	MACF
20	McDaniel	4.84154	CC
21	Chapman	4.75734	SCIAC
22	Tufts	4.62963	NESCAC
23	Rochester	4.62739	UAA
24	Swarthmore	4.28721	CC
25	Dickinson	4.27038	CC

Rating is found by having a large number of voters voting for their first place team.  Have each voter look at the outcome of a randomly chosen game their team has played.  They switch to the other team with a probability related to the margin of victory of the game.  Do that several thousand times for all voters and the distribution of voters settles to a steady state.  Rating is normalized so that each team starts with one voter.

Full rankings are linked to from the post that is linked in the title.

Discnerd's Top 25

Ranking	Team	Rating	Conference
1	Mary Washington	7.464111	CAC
2	Amherst	7.172172	NESCAC
3	Tufts	6.804878	NESCAC
4	Washington and Lee	6.46249	ODAC
5	Johns Hopkins	6.303254	CC
6	Roanoke	6.280562	ODAC
7	Covenant	5.790168	USAC
8	Calvin	4.774913	MIAA
9	Christopher Newport	4.746544	CAC
10	Hardin-Simmons	4.704277	ASC
11	Catholic	4.607719	LAND
12	Loras	4.53231	ARC
13	Connecticut College	4.529007	NESCAC
14	Eastern Connecticut	4.34873	LEC
15	Gustavus Adolphus	4.082904	MIAC
16	Middlebury	4.080217	NESCAC
17	Gettysburg	4.028624	CC
18	Franklin and Marshall	4.027184	CC
19	Messiah	3.986144	MACC
20	Oglethorpe	3.818965	SAA
21	Oneonta State	3.630584	SUNYAC
22	Rutgers-Camden	3.443313	NJAC
23	Hobart	3.373135	LL
24	Ithaca	3.359468	LL
25	RPI	3.355243	LL

Rating is found by having a large number of voters voting for their first place team.  Have each voter look at the outcome of a randomly chosen game their team has played.  They switch to the other team with a probability related to the margin of victory of the game.  Do that several thousand times for all voters and the distribution of voters settles to a steady state.  Rating is normalized so that each team starts with one voter.


Full rankings are linked to from the post that is linked in the title.