Tremendous performance by NCC against an excellent Wartburg team. I know a lot of the discussion last week was about NCCs warts (no pun intended) and where this tream belongs amongst the great teams of the last 25 years. That's a conversation that can be had if they win next week, but I just want to recognize and appreciate that this team, missing multiple all Americans, just played the numbers 6, 4, and 3 teams in the country (likely 6, 3 and 2 if they ranked today), including the last 2 on the road and they're still standing. Regardless of what happens next week, that's an amazing accomplishment. Proud of this team and program.

Quote from: bleedpurple on November 17, 2023, 09:25:03 AM

Quote from: USee on November 17, 2023, 08:57:08 AM
I don't think it's a state secret as to HOW. Bigger, stronger, faster is the short answer. The question is: "Is the CCIW worse or has NCC gotten that much better"? I suspect the talent gap in the CCIW has widened with NCC mostly because they are getting better people but it's probably also true the rest of the league hasn't kept up. Is that true for the rest of the country? Bout to find out (though I have my suspicions).

Hmmm. Bigger, stronger, faster. 10.2 yards per play to 8.2 yards per play last year. That's huge gains in one year.  Those guys must have monster workouts. Maybe they have a cutting edge nutritionist.

A couple big changes this year.

1. The wide receiver core is significantly deeper. Last year, due to injuries it was Hardy and then not much. The second, third and fourth receivers were all lost to season ending injuries and NCC was forced to use cornerback Nic Rummell as their second option. This year their second and third receivers are both transfers from scholarship programs that can punish teams for putting too much attention on Hardy.

2. Lehnen has improved significantly as a passer. The ball comes out of his hand better, the timing is better, the zip is better. It felt like his first couple years that ball would flutter on him at times and he'd miss the occassional deep shot with overthrows. This year it's just more crisp and the deep ball has improved.

3. The running game is different. In years past they used Greenfield to bludgeon teams with 6, 7, 8 yards every play. This year, they don't have as much power in the backfield but they are more explosive. They have two backs (including Sacco) that average over 11 yards per carry who can bounce runs and show breakaway speed. They use 3 backs almost interchangeably that are all really tough to stop and hit a lot more home runs than in years past.

4. At this level, Deangelo Hardy is a cheat code. He averages a touchdown every 3 times he touches the ball. When all else fails, just get the ball to 6.

It's definitely a little different offense than it was the last few years. It remains to be seen how it will hold up against better defenses in the playoffs when some of the big plays may be limited. That said, if I were betting I'd bet you'll need at least 30 points to beat them.

One stat I don't think has gotten enough attention - NCC is averaging 10.2 yards per play. That leads the country by 2.5 yards per play. That's the same gap as the second play team (Berry I think) leads the 70th place team. Pretty mind boggling. Obviously that will come down a bit in the playoffs but I remember being wowed when they averaged 8 yards per play going into the playoffs last year and they raised that by 25%! Pretty incredible!

Quote from: Stertorous Thunder on October 30, 2023, 03:47:27 PM

Quote from: mwunder on October 30, 2023, 09:36:12 AM
The average margin of victory over the weekend was 46 points, with only one game being competitive.

Wheaton 75 - Millikin 0
Wash U 66 - Elmhurst 0
NCC 56 - North Park 0
Augie 44 - IWU 14
Carthage 30 - Carroll 27

If the Wheaton, Wash U, and North Central scores were in high school games, I would likely suspect the winning coaches of poor sportsmanship (unless maybe the third- and fourth-stringers from the winning team were doing most of the second half damage).  But when there are so few postseason spots available for at-large teams, I understand why a team might keep its foot on the gas even when the point margin exceeds 30 or 40.  Does anyone have an insider perspective on how D3 teams view blowouts like this?  I'm sure that individual games have their own unique stories, but in general do coaches take offense to getting blown out by 50+ points?  Or do they understand the situation and accept that a team in contention for an at-large bid has an incentive to run up the score and earn style points for the end-of-season decisions that must be made by the selection committee?

I think this is a really difficult thing to navigate when the gap between the top of the conference and the bottom of the conference is so wide (and this applies to a lot of Division III).

Using NCC as an example, their average halftime score this year is 41-3. The average second half score, by comparison, is 18-6. So I think it's unfair to say they're running up the score. They typically run their offense/leave starters on the field through the first or second possession of the second half. After that they put backups in and run the ball 80+% of the time. I think they have to balance allowing their kids to play and getting them ready for the playoffs with not hanging 80+ points in 7 or 8 of their conference games each year. Wheaton is in the same boat most years and occasionally another program (Augie/WashU this year) jumps into that territory.

In short, other coaches hopefully recognize that the elite teams aren't necessarily trying to run up the score or embarrass the opponent, but they are trying to get their teams ready, from an execution standpoint, for the playoffs and game situations are the best time to do that. Also, kids who go to elite programs shouldn't be punished into only playing 1+ quarters in the majority of their games to spare another team that may be inferior. I think, for the most part, people who have been around Division III for a long time recognize all this as a byproduct of the wider talent gap than at other levels, but it may be eye opening to new fans.

Quote from: Etchglow on December 10, 2022, 06:23:52 PM

Quote from: CardsFan1988 on December 10, 2022, 06:21:52 PM

Quote from: Etchglow on December 10, 2022, 06:16:40 PM

Quote from: USee on December 10, 2022, 06:06:34 PM

Quote from: UMHB03 on December 10, 2022, 06:03:09 PM

Quote from: USee on December 10, 2022, 05:55:03 PM

Quote from: UMHB03 on December 10, 2022, 05:23:14 PM

Quote from: USee on December 10, 2022, 05:16:25 PM

Quote from: umhbalum on December 10, 2022, 05:13:34 PM
I thought both PI's were bad calls

Agree. but if you call the first one, have to call the second.

Not really. The DB impeded the WR's effort to come back for the ball in the first one. The WR stuck out his arm in the second, but there was barely any contact with the DB and that wasn't what created the space.

Of course, says the MHB fan.....then you have to call Jordan's push in the back on the fade.

UMHB fan or not, the refs have to officiate by the rules. One play was PI and the other wasn't. That's just the way it is.

That said, it doesn't really matter. NC is the better team and that's starting to become clear.

So a flag on both plays is the refs not enforcing the rules? Hmmmm. Have to call them both or neither. But as you say, looking like a moot point.

So if you have to call both, how do you explain the no call when 26 tackled Jordan on 4th down?

Go back and watch where Jordan's hand is on that play and why 26 went to the ground. To clarify, the rule isn't "Jordan can be as physical as he wants but Dbs can't touch him".

So the db's can use their hands but Jordan can't?

Not if one is a penalty and the other isn't. On the play you're referring too both players had their hands on each other and went to the ground. That doesn't mean it's defensive PI. It means it's a foul on both players (which obviously isn't called) or it's a no call as they both had their hands on each other.

Quote from: Etchglow on December 10, 2022, 06:16:40 PM

Quote from: USee on December 10, 2022, 06:06:34 PM

Quote from: UMHB03 on December 10, 2022, 06:03:09 PM

Quote from: USee on December 10, 2022, 05:55:03 PM

Quote from: UMHB03 on December 10, 2022, 05:23:14 PM

Quote from: USee on December 10, 2022, 05:16:25 PM

Quote from: umhbalum on December 10, 2022, 05:13:34 PM
I thought both PI's were bad calls

Agree. but if you call the first one, have to call the second.

Not really. The DB impeded the WR's effort to come back for the ball in the first one. The WR stuck out his arm in the second, but there was barely any contact with the DB and that wasn't what created the space.

Of course, says the MHB fan.....then you have to call Jordan's push in the back on the fade.

UMHB fan or not, the refs have to officiate by the rules. One play was PI and the other wasn't. That's just the way it is.

That said, it doesn't really matter. NC is the better team and that's starting to become clear.

So a flag on both plays is the refs not enforcing the rules? Hmmmm. Have to call them both or neither. But as you say, looking like a moot point.

So if you have to call both, how do you explain the no call when 26 tackled Jordan on 4th down?

Go back and watch where Jordan's hand is on that play and why 26 went to the ground. To clarify, the rule isn't "Jordan can be as physical as he wants but Dbs can't touch him".

Quote from: USee on December 02, 2022, 05:59:57 PM
Hazz,

I hear you on Roste and one of the common refrains is "when Roste is healthy...". For kicks, I did a speculative exercise, given the information you provided on Roste's participation in games this year, to try and quantify that sentiment. What if Roste was healthy all year? By your count he was "healthy" in 8.5 games out of 12. So I took St Johns #1 through St Olaf (6 games) and then added Wheaton and Linfield playoff games (8 games total). The only games I didn't count was PLU, UWP, Augsburg and St J #2. So I took his (and the overall offense) stats for the 8 "healthy" games and then added 33% to each of the numbers to extrapolate for the 4 games he wasn't healthy to try and get a full season of a healthy Roste and what that looks like.

The short answer from a Team stat perspective is that this offense would still be ranked somewhere between 50-70 nationally for total offense (yds) but I suspect it would go up more dramatically in the scoring offense category (from around #56 to #30+ or so). For Roste personally, below is a comparison of actual Roste along with "healthy" Roste. I have added in the other Gagliardi QB's for comparison. Notes:  I listed gross rush yds and the net (which includes sacks) to get a sense of the damage these guys can do with their legs;  "healthy" Roste is 12 game total while the others are just 11 game actual stats.

Braxton Plunk, Mt Union, Sr,  6-0, 180 lbs, 268-364, 41 TD's, 5 INT, 3,440 yds, 74% completions. 45 rush 185 yds (61 net), 4.1 ypc, 3 TD's

Kyle King, UMBH, SR, 6-3, 220 lbs, 202-298, 35 TD's, 4 INTs, 2,866 yds, 68% completions. 41 rush for 288 yds (224 net), 7.0 ypc, 1 TD

Will Bowers, Wheaton, SR, 6-2,194 lbs, 249-326, 6 INT, 32 T's, 2,829 yds, 76% completions. 71 rush for 451 yds (321 net), 6.4 ypc, 4 TD's

"Healthy" Jaron Roste, Bethel, 6-4, 220, 216-311, 24 TD's, 5 INT, 2,847 yds, 70% completions. 72 rush, 496 yds (451net), 6.9 ypc, 7 TD's

"Actual" Jaron Roste  Sr, 6-4, 220 lbs, 161-234 6 INT, 17 TD's, 2,159 yds and 69% completions. 54 rush for 427 yds (388 net), 7.9 ypc, 5 TD's

AJ Wingfield, Ithaca, Sr, 5-11, 180 lbs, 170-242, 17 TD's, 4 INT, 1,803 yds, 70% completions. 79 rush 359 yds (290 net), 4.5 ypc, 3 TD's


Separately, I put these QB's in somewhat of an order of highest/best stats to lowest, depending on how you value certain statistics. I think Braxton Plunk's yardage and TD's numbers jump out from the others. He has been really amazing this year among what appears to me to be a great group of QB's.

NCC graduate math says you need to add 50% to the stats. If he played in 8 games and you want to proxy 4 more, you would multiply the stats by 1.5.

That's unless I'm misunderstanding the exercise, in which case interesting analysis!

My favorite NCC stat this year:

NCC averaged 8.1 yards per rushing attempt. That lead the country by 1.5 yards which is the difference between the second place and 25th place teams in the country.

Greenfield is incredible averaging 8.3 yards per carry on significant volume, but in addition to him:
  - Hill (backup running back) averages 8.8 ypc (over 500 yards rushing)
  - Sacco (third string running back) averages 10.7 ypc (over 500 yards rushing)
  - Lehnen averages 9.2 ypc (490 yards rushing including sack totals)
  - Chisum (4th string running back) averages 7.9 ypc ( 250 yards rushing)

The depth in the backfield is incredible, and to USee's point, this offensive line is playing at a different level (and clearly has significant depth as much of Sacco and Chisums yards have come with the backup OL in). I still have concerns about being able to throw to win a game when needed, but it will take a special effort to slow down this running attack.

Also of note - the offense only has 3 seniors on the entire 2-deep.

Quote from: USee on December 07, 2021, 12:24:24 AM
Having seen my fair share of North Central games and knowing them as well as anyone,  here is what I can tell you they are gonna do Saturday:

They are gonna run the ball right at you. Doesn't matter who you are, doesn't matter what you do, they are gonna try to bully you on the LOS and run it relentlessly. Even if you stop them, they won't stop running it. They run the ball 66% of their plays. This year they never had less than 36 rush attempts and only passed the ball more than 25 times once through 12 games. They ran it more than 40 times 9 games, more than 50 times in 5 games. They rushed for over 300 yards in 7 games. Only once did they rush for under 200 yards, against Wheaton, the #2 rush defense in the country 41 attempts for 126 yds; 13-20 passing). They averaged over 6 yds a carry against all but 2 teams including UWLacrosse (291 yds rushing, 6.2 ypc; UWW ran for 191 vs UWL).

They haven't asked their QB to win a game on his own, yet. He came close against Wheaton (Kamienski helped a lot). When they pass, they are gonna throw it down the field. They average 17.6 yds per completion (#8 in the country). Mt Union averages 8.8 yds per attempt. If you are going to compete with NCC you have to neutralize or win the LOS. They aim to dominate on the offensive line. Wheaton held them to 126 yds rushing (the QB ran for 66 of those) and 3.1 ypc. Mt Unions #4 ranked rush defense only gave up 100 yds rushing 2x. 160 yds vs Ohio Northern and 130 yds vs Baldwin Wallace.

So NCC is going to make you stop the run. They ran it against wheaton unsuccessfully and still won. They ran it agains UWL and won, they ran it against everybody.  If you can stop the run and keep 2 safeties back, you can beat them. If you commit an extra DB or 2 to the run by playing cover 3 or man to man, they will RPO you down the field with their WR's. When they pass they go big game hunting. Against Wheaton the kid complete 13 passes. 6 of them went for 30+ yds and were the primary reason they won in what was a 14-7 game until a minute left.

Mt Union runs the ball so they can throw it. NCC runs it so they can run it some more. The QB completes 66% of his passes with 30 TDs and 6 INT. He runs for about 40-50 yds a game. And he really isn't a freshman. He has been at NCC for 2 years and is now in his 13th game so I wouldn't count on him playing like a freshman. 

The only team I think with the right matchups and personnel to beat NCC is UWW (maybe MHB but I haven't really seen or studied them yet). They are strong in the places where NCC can be hurt. I don't see the Purple Raiders winning Saturday, despite Bleed's guess. If they do, it's because they are better up front than NCC and fast enough on the perimeter to beat their skill guys.

One note I will add to USee's excellent analysis - part of the reason NCC's running % is so high in 2021 has been the margin of victory. Looking only at attempts per game for Hill, Greenfield and Lehnen/Rutter:

2019 - 31 run vs 29 pass (52% run)
2021 - 33 run vs 22 pass (60% run)

Still more run heavy in 2021 than 2019, but given the starters will be on the field the whole game against mount, I'd expect something closer to a 60/40 split assuming NCC doesn't fall down big early (which is right in line with where NCC has traditionally been in the Thorne era). Also, interesting to note that while people remember Rutter's unbelievable performance in 2019, NCC ran the ball 62% of the time in that game.

Quote from: HSUCowboy2015 on November 16, 2021, 12:22:11 PM
I personally think the 24 and 35 point wins over RRO for UMU carried more weight than the 6 point win UMHB had over their RRO. I feel like this years committee leaned more on SOS and RRO wins than in the past. So when UMU won both of those categories over UMHB they got the #1 seed. Again I think NC and UMHB were probably the last two fighting for a 1 seed and NC had the tie breaker from the 2019 playoffs.

I think the idea that NCC only got a one seed from the tiebreaker significantly undersells their resume. Their SOS was. 521 (. 040 better than UMHB) and they went 3-0 against RRO. Those wins included arguably the best D3 win of the year (by 13 @ Wheaton) and a 64-7 win over an Aurora team that played #1 overall seed St. John's to a 39-33 loss the week before. With all due respect to the historical success of the Cru and no criticism of this year's squad which looks formidable, UMHBs resume is not remotely close to the other number 1s. I think they are properly seeded, and all that said, certainly a team I'm glad we wouldn't have to see before mid-December!

Congratilations to the Cardinals! Amazing performance and an incredible run. Curious because I have no idea what the answer is. When is the last time a team beat 4 straight top 10 teams en route to a Stagg Bowl win? Pretty incredible!

Long time follower of the boards but new to posting. Curious to hear MU fans thoughts on the struggles of both lines yesterday. As impressive as Rutter was, NCC's offensive line controlled that game as Rutter had time to throw and Greenfield seemed to pick up 4 yards everytime he touched the ball. On the other side NCCs line dominated against the run in the first half to the point where MU didn't hand the ball off once in the second half. That allowed NCC to pin their ears back in the fourth quarter to come after Fulford without fear of a hand-off (I know the numbers don't bear that out but almost all of Mounts rushing yards were off of scrambles which it seemed like NCC was comfortable giving up in order to get double coverage on Hill and rush 4 consistently).

Curious when the last time Mount was beat on both LOS other than against a traditional power (UMHB or UWW)

Great game to both sides yesterday!