Here is my prediction for Bridgewater vs Delaware Valley...

In the first half, Michael Nobile the Aggie defense stifles the Eagles offense, but BC protects the ball and forces DVU's offense into too many 3rd-and-longs. A couple of short fields give the Aggies two quick trips to the end zone, including a big play from Anthony Fontana to Aaron Nelson. Delaware Valley takes a 14-3 lead into the locker room. Jay Scroggins and the Eagles come out in the second half and play inspired football, along with adjustments made by Coach Clark. DVU first adds a FG on the board to make it 17-3, but BC responds with two straight trips into the end zone (one missed EP). With BC down 17-16 in the fourth, Demetreus Jalepes breaks a big one which eventually leads to a short FG.

Bridgewater wins a tight one, 19-17.

Each team has one stat that really stands out, and IMO they will be the key to how this game is played and won. For DVU, the defense only allows 1.5 yards per rush attempt — led by Nobile (26.5 TFL, 10 sacks). For BC, Scroggins has touched the ball more than 600 times this season — and he has turned it over only once (that's 27 total TDs, one pick, and zero fumbles).

Buckle up for a great game!

Quote from: gordonmann on November 20, 2019, 06:27:42 PM
Nice break down.

Sounds like two evenly matched teams, regardless of the poll differential.

The Aggies defense has been special this year. The twin sophomore defensive ends are so awesome it's easy to overlook how well the other guys have played.

The offense has been inconsistent with inopportune penalties and fumbles in the red zone, but they have some good speed and big play ability on offense. I don't know if the weather nullifies that this time of year.  A fair chunk of the turnovers occurred at the tail end of blowouts. The starting QB threw 3 INTs in one game against Wesley and then didn't throw another until a ball deflected off someone's hands in the final game of the season.

Looking forward to it.

Thanks, Gordon! I hope to see you tomorrow at the game.

That's a good point about some of the stats being misleading with 2nd/3rd stringers playing in the 3rd/4th quarter (when games are no longer in doubt). I haven't dug through late game stats (i.e. yards, TOs) for Bridgewater, but I'm sure it's a similar story.

What was easy to determine was how scoring offense and defense by quarter. This season, Bridgewater has scored 262 of their 392 points (67%) in the first half. Same goes for their scoring defense -- they have only allowed 4 touchdowns in the first half this season (37 total points). 80 of the remaining points came in the second half (53 of which were in the 4th quarter). In other words, on average, we are leading 26.2 to 3.7 at the half this season. If you look at our three toughest games this season -- it tells a similar story:

      at Stevenson -- 23-0 lead at the half (37-22 final score)
      at Emory & Henry -- 21-3 lead at the half (35-3 final score)
      vs Randolph-Macon -- 21-0 lead at the half (28-21 final score)

I couldn't find a standard view of Delaware Valley's stats -- but looking at their three toughest games (based on opponent's final records), they -- at least offensively -- had slower starts:

      vs Wesley -- 0-0 at the half (18-24 final score)
      vs Stevenson -- 14-7 lead at the half (28-21 final score)
      at Wilkes - 21-0 lead at half (42-0 final score)

Looking forward to it!!

As promised, here is the "tale of the tape" for the NCAA first round playoff game between Bridgewater and Delaware Valley...

Bridgewater	|	RANKINGS	|	Delaware Valley
#21	|	D3football.com Top 25	|	#9
#20	|	AFCA Top 25	|	#9
#3 South	|	NCAA Regional	|	#3 East
#98 (0.514)	|	SOS	|	#80 (0.520)
		OFFENSE
39.2	|	Points Per Game	|	37.2
413.3	|	Total Yards Per Game	|	394.8
6.2	|	Total Yards Per Attempt	|	6.1
241.2	|	Passing Yards Per Game	|	241.9
8.3	|	Passing Yards Per Attempt	|	8.8
172.1	|	Rushing Yards Per Game	|	152.9
4.6	|	Rushing Yards Per Attempt	|	4.1
30:58	|	Time of Possession Per Game	|	30:59
		DEFENSE
11.7	|	Points Per Game	|	10.3
272.1	|	Total Yards Per Game	|	182.5
4.0	|	Total Yards Per Attempt	|	3.0
167.8	|	Passing Yards Per Game	|	136.6
5.2	|	Passing Yards Per Attempt	|	4.5
104.2	|	Rushing Yards Per Game	|	45.9
2.9	|	Rushing Yards Per Attempt	|	1.5
3.2	|	Sacks Per Game	|	3.9
+11	|	Turnover Margin	|	+4

A couple of (obvious) statistical observations:

    * DVU has more National respect
    * DVU had a tougher strength of schedule (MAC considered stronger top to bottom than ODAC)
    * A virtual coin flip on the offensive side of the ball
    * DVU is much stronger on defense -- allowing only 1.5 yards per rush is insane (39 total sacks helps)
    * BC has the edge in turnovers allowed (7 to 18), but DVU has forced more turnovers (22 to 18)

If you dive deeper into the turnover margin numbers -- something jumps out (at least to me, it does). Delaware Valley's achilles heel seems to be coughing up the ball (27 fumbles/INTs -- 18 fumbles lost/INTs). One of Bridgewater's strengths is forcing turnovers (24 FF/INTs -- 18 FR/INTs). With a potentially cold and rainy day this Saturday (current forecast at kickoff is 39, overcast) -- turnovers may play a big part. The Eagles have a slight advantage with having played more games this year in 30/40 degree weather. Looks like the Aggies have only had one game in that type of weather (a close 28-21 win over a 5-5 Widener team to end the regular season).

Albeit early season games, here is a statistical comparison of when both Bridgewater and Delaware Valley played Stevenson (2nd place MAC team)...

Bridgewater	|	OFFENSE	|	Delaware Valley
37	|	Points	|	28
423	|	Total Yards Gained	|	304
6.3	|	Total Yards Per Attempt	|	6.6
217	|	Passing Yards Gained	|	239
8.3	|	Passing Yards Per Attempt	|	11.4
206	|	Rushing Yards Gained	|	65
5.0	|	Rushing Yards Per Attempt	|	2.6
29:11	|	Time of Possession	|	21:58
		DEFENSE
22	|	Points Allowed	|	21
326	|	Total Yards Allowed	|	249
4.7	|	Total Yards Per Attempt	|	3.5
269	|	Passing Yards Allowed	|	216
7.3	|	Passing Yards Per Attempt	|	6.5
57	|	Rushing Yards Allowed	|	33
1.7	|	Rushing Yards Per Attempt	|	0.8
7	|	Sacks	|	8
+1	|	Turnover Margin	|	-1

On one hand, you could take Delaware Valley's balanced offensive attack and dominant defensive performance this season and say it will be a 24-10 Aggie win this Saturday. On the other hand, you could take the turnover margin, consistent rushing attack, potential weather, and home field advantage -- and say Bridgewater will pull out a tight one, 19-17.

Because I need to take my Bridgewater fan hat off, and sleep on these stats for a couple of days -- I will reserve my "official" prognostication until later this week.

What say you?!

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 17, 2019, 06:38:11 PM
Can you "asterisk" those seasons that BC got a bye?

Thanks.

Good catch! 2001 and 2002. Wouldn't have been guaranteed wins, but important to note.

Changed in my original post!

Quote from: Jeremybozz on November 17, 2019, 05:59:29 PM
Delaware Valley defeated Stevenson 28-21. Bridgewater defeated Stevenson 37-22.

DV was at home, and BC was on the road... although both games were early in the season.

I will provide a stat comparison this week. 😉

Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 17, 2019, 01:01:02 PM
In 1998, there were only 16 playoff spots and they went to the top four teams in each region. There were five unbeaten teams in the South and E&H was the odd one out, probably because they hadn't been a playoff team the year before.

https://www.d3football.com/columns/around-the-region/mid-atlantic/1999/e-and-h-looks-to-end-dry-spell

Thanks, Pat! Stinks for the Wasps, but glad the playoffs expanded to include more opportunities!

On the bright side, one could argue that's the best season in ODAC history — zero losses! 🤔

With Bridgewater finishing 10-0 for the first time since 2002, and as they prepare for the NCAA playoffs (first time in 14 years), I thought it might be fun to revisit the ODAC's best single season records and NCAA playoff history -- since the conference was formed in 1975.

Since the Eagles are the 7th ODAC program to finish the regular season undefeated, let's first take a look at the best seasons (based on wins):

	Team	Record	Notes
#1	*2001 Bridgewater	12-1	Regular Season 10-0 // Stagg Bowl Finalist
#2	2003 Bridgewater	12-2	NCAA Playoff Semifinalist
#3	1992 Emory & Henry	11-1	Regular Season 10-0 // NCAA Playoff Quarterfinalist
	*2002 Bridgewater	11-1	Regular Season 10-0 // NCAA Playoff Quarterfinalist
#5	1987 Emory & Henry	11-3	NCAA Playoff Semifinalist
#6	1998 Emory & Henry	10-0	Regular Season 10-0
	2019 Bridgewater	10-0	Regular Season 10-0 // NCAA Playoffs TBD
#8	2009 Hampden-Sydney	10-1	Regular Season 10-0 // NCAA Playoffs First Round
	2015 Washington & Lee	10-1	Regular Season 10-0 // NCAA Playoffs First Round
#10	1986 Emory & Henry	10-2	NCAA Playoffs First Round
	2000 Bridgewater	10-2	NCAA Playoffs Second Round
	2005 Bridgewater	10-2	NCAA Playoffs Quarterfinalist

The following is the playoff history for each school:

School	Appearances	Record	Years
Bridgewater	7	10-6	2000, *2001, *2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2019
Emory & Henry	5	3-5	1986, 1987, 1992, 1995, 2000
Ferrum	5	4-5	1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 2005
Guilford	0	0-0
Hampden-Sydney	7	1-7	1977, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014
Randolph-Macon	4	1-4	1984, 2008, 2016, 2018
Shenandoah	0	0-1	2004
Washington & Lee	5	0-5	2006, 2010, 2012, 2015, 2017
---------------	---	---	----------------------------
Catholic	3	0-3	1997, 1998, 1999
Maryville	1	0-1	2013

*In 2001 and 2002, Bridgewater earned first round byes in the NCAA playoffs

Obviously, Catholic and Maryville are no longer with the ODAC -- and only Catholic's 1999 playoff appearance occurred as an ODAC representative. Also, Shenandoah's one playoff appearance was when they were part of the USAC. And lastly, all of Ferrum's NCAA playoff success (including two semifinalist finishes -- 1988 and 1989) came before they joined the ODAC.

Overall, the ODAC (including current and former conference programs) has a 19-37 NCAA playoff record. If you remove the appearances when current and former ODAC programs were not representing the conference, that changes the overall record to 15-28. And if you remove Bridgewater's historic run from 2000 to 2005, the ODAC is just 5-22 in the NCAA playoffs over 44 years.

A couple of interesting notes (and one question):

    * In 1977, Hampden-Sydney finished with a 9-2 record, and was ranked #4 in the country
    * In 1987, E&H made it to the semis of the NCAA playoffs, but HSC won the ODAC with a 5-5 record (beating E&H 14-13)
    * 2010 was the only year that two ODAC schools made the NCAA playoffs (HSC and W&L)
    * In 1998, Emory & Henry went 10-0 -- why didn't they receive a NCAA playoff berth?

Anyway, just thought I would share! Feel free to make any corrections -- I used archived stats/records from D3football.com, ODAConline.com, and school websites.

My two cents on the Neptune Bowl...

I understand the sentiment that has been shared by fans on this board, especially from RMC's perspective. Finishing second in the conference, having just come off the big game where you were a touchdown (+ 2-pt conversion or OT) away from being champions and heading to the NCAA playoffs — it stings. As a Bridgewater fan, we have had a couple of those the past 14 years.

What I wonder is, how many former athletes look back and wish "man, if I could just suit up one more time!"? Most Division III football players get what, 20-30 games in their career? 30-40 if they are studs? I would think any opportunity (no matter how disappointed a team or player is) to play one more time would be appreciated. And there is always a risk of injury — first game of the year, biggest game of the year, or the Neptune Bowl.

I like what was proposed by someone already — play your starters for a quarter or a half. Then play your younger players the rest of the game. I'm sure coaches like the opportunity for seeing what you have (in game situations) for next year.

Thanks, Wally! Very helpful.

Safe to then assume that Pat (and the committee) feel a 0.23 difference in SOS is statistically insignificant, in which case that provision will be used? I'm thinking the answer is yes because that's why UMHB is currently #1 over both Muhlenberg and Bridgewater (previous season performance).

Totally makes sense, but doesn't that mean SOS criteria is used arbitrarily?

Based on national rankings alone (which I know aren't used by the committee), UMHB and Mulenberg should be ranked #1 and #2 in the south — I'm just questioning the relevance of SOS. 🤷‍♂️

Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 10, 2019, 02:22:45 PM

Quote from: Matt Barnhart (kid) on November 10, 2019, 08:07:15 AM

Quote from: Jeremybozz on November 10, 2019, 02:00:42 AM
Stevenson's win over Wilkes (who was #10 in the East ) will help Bridgewater a bit.

Also, Bridgewater's SOS jumped to .539 (top 50). Mulenberg's dropped to .516. Maybe a chance BC jumps to #2 in the South? Since Stevenson may move up in the East, and if RMC remains ranked in the South. 🤷‍♂️

Don't think so. The unbeaten-team provision in the regional rankings heavily favors Muhlenberg.

You will have to excuse me -- I have been (14 years) away from the NCAA regional ranking lingo. What is the "unbeaten-team provision"?

Quote from: Jeremybozz on November 10, 2019, 02:00:42 AM
Stevenson's win over Wilkes (who was #10 in the East ) will help Bridgewater a bit.

Also, Bridgewater's SOS jumped to .539 (top 50). Mulenberg's dropped to .516. Maybe a chance BC jumps to #2 in the South? Since Stevenson may move up in the East, and if RMC remains ranked in the South. 🤷‍♂️

On a random, but interesting note... Bridgewater has the third highest SOS in the country of remaining undefeated teams... the other two:

#3 UW-Whitewater
#4 Wheaton

RMC made an incredible comeback in the second half. Expected after being shutdown in the first. The 70+ yard BC rushing touchdown (making it 28-13) made the difference. Until the the last part of the 4th quarter, a pretty clean game (penalties, turnovers) by both teams. That's what you want out of the conferences two best teams.

I was close guessing 30-24, BC winning on the last possession. ... with a minute left, RMC had to go for an onside kick but BC recovered -- then took a knee to win 28-21. Heck of a game!

Congrats to the Eagles on their first ODAC title in 14 years! Impressive 13-game winning streak (longest in program history) in Coach Clark's 25th season! Win next week, finish 10-0, and host a first round playoff game. I plan to make the trip to Bridgewater in two weeks! Dusting off the 15-year old BC fan jersey and ready to tailgate.

Quote from: Macon on November 08, 2019, 06:37:51 PM

Quote from: Matt Barnhart (kid) on November 08, 2019, 05:45:47 PM

Quote from: Macon on November 08, 2019, 03:16:05 PM

Quote from: Macon on November 08, 2019, 12:30:15 PM
It pains me greatly to say this, but as a realist, I'll say 30-14 BC.

Interesting, but a couple of the D3 Quick Hits 'Professionals' are picking RMC, giving me some hope yet!

You including homer Keith!? 😂

I kid, I kid. The Yellow Jackets are no joke — it will be a great game!

Especially Keith, he's tough on the Jackets.

If he took his impartial D3football.com hat off, I'm sure he wouldn't mind seeing the Eagles lose. 😉

Quote from: Macon on November 08, 2019, 03:16:05 PM

Quote from: Macon on November 08, 2019, 12:30:15 PM
It pains me greatly to say this, but as a realist, I'll say 30-14 BC.

Interesting, but a couple of the D3 Quick Hits 'Professionals' are picking RMC, giving me some hope yet!

You including homer Keith!? 😂

I kid, I kid. The Yellow Jackets are no joke — it will be a great game!

wally_wabash,

I appreciate the insight!

I was thinking 80% chance of home game (if 10-0). What makes me nervous is W&L went 10-0 in 2015, and had to go on the road first round. Different circumstances, I'm sure — but undefeated conference champion has no guarantees.

I am thinking around 20% on making the playoffs at 9-1 (losing to RMC). If Bridgewater's only loss was to a regionally ranked opponent — and Stevenson cracks the rankings, that will help. And Susquehanna's SOS may drop with remaining games against the bottom of the Centennial.

All that really matters is that BC controls their own destiny!